Foreign Aid and Conflict - Harvard University...Foreign Aid It is well-known that foreign aid can...
Transcript of Foreign Aid and Conflict - Harvard University...Foreign Aid It is well-known that foreign aid can...
Foreign Aid and Conflict
Nathan NunnProfessor of Economics
Harvard University
October 8, 2018
Nathan Nunn Professor of Economics Harvard University Foreign Aid and Conflict
Foreign Aid
It is well-known that foreign aid can have important benefits.
Foreign aid has been used to build schools, deworm children,provide cash for much-needed businesses or households.
However, there are also a number of concerns associated withforeign aid:
For the typical aid project, evaluation of the impacts of theproject are too often non-existent or poor.Even if evaluated, there may still be unintentionalconsequences that are not measured.
Nathan Nunn Professor of Economics Harvard University Foreign Aid and Conflict
Foreign Aid
It is well-known that foreign aid can have important benefits.
Foreign aid has been used to build schools, deworm children,provide cash for much-needed businesses or households.
However, there are also a number of concerns associated withforeign aid:
For the typical aid project, evaluation of the impacts of theproject are too often non-existent or poor.Even if evaluated, there may still be unintentionalconsequences that are not measured.
Nathan Nunn Professor of Economics Harvard University Foreign Aid and Conflict
Foreign Aid
It is well-known that foreign aid can have important benefits.
Foreign aid has been used to build schools, deworm children,provide cash for much-needed businesses or households.
However, there are also a number of concerns associated withforeign aid:
For the typical aid project, evaluation of the impacts of theproject are too often non-existent or poor.Even if evaluated, there may still be unintentionalconsequences that are not measured.
Nathan Nunn Professor of Economics Harvard University Foreign Aid and Conflict
Aid and Conflict?
Anecdotal evidence suggests that humanitarian aid may fuelconflict.
Nathan Nunn Professor of Economics Harvard University Foreign Aid and Conflict
Aid and Conflict?
“Experience shows that even when it is effective in doingwhat it is intended to do. . . aid too often also feeds into,reinforces, and prolongs conflicts. Again and again aidworkers tell how their aid is distorted by local politics andis misappropriated by warriors to support the war. Againand again war victims report that aid is enriching warlordsor strengthening the enemy.” (Anderson, 1999, p. 37)
Nathan Nunn Professor of Economics Harvard University Foreign Aid and Conflict
Humanitarian Aid and Conflict: The Biafran Example
In 1967, Nigerian state ofBiafra tries to secede, led byOdumegwu Ojukwu.
Civil war breaks out betweenBiafra and Nigeria.
By 1968, Biafra’s territorialcontrol shrinks significantly.
Nathan Nunn Professor of Economics Harvard University Foreign Aid and Conflict
Humanitarian Aid and Conflict: The Biafran Example
Biafran leader Odumegwu Ojukwugained income and resourcesbecause of humanitarian aid.
Food aid fed his army, while importtariffs and transportation fees werecharged to aid organizations.
In 1970, Ojukwu flees and Biafrasurrenders.
Some argue the aid caused the warto continued for 1–2 years longerthan it otherwise would have.
Nathan Nunn Professor of Economics Harvard University Foreign Aid and Conflict
Humanitarian Aid and Conflict: The Rwandan Example
Following the 1994 Rwandangenocide, nearly a million HutuRwandese fled to Eastern Zaire(e.g., Goma).
Aid and refugee camps financedand protected Hutu militia.
This allowed them to regroup,strengthen, and undertakeattacks in Rwanda and EasternZaire against ethnic Tutsis.
FR | EN
Blog – Diary of refugeesCultureEconomyJusticeNewsNews analysisOpinion
a-boy-looks-on-at-the-mugunga-displaced-people-camp-november-12-2008
Tweet Apr 24th, 2018 at 13:32 | By Laure Uwase | Category:
Share and Enjoy:
Leave a Comment
Footer Widgets
This is another widgetized area. You can use any kind of Widget to improve your Website. No matter if you use Textwidgets, any other defaultWordPress widget or the fantastic custom Widgets that are included in BranfordMagazine.
About us
HomeSubmit an article
For more news…
NewsOpinionNews analysisSpecial edition Victoire IngabireCultureEconomyJusticeSports
Connection on Jambonews
Log in
Recommend 0
Nathan Nunn Professor of Economics Harvard University Foreign Aid and Conflict
Humanitarian Aid and Conflict: The Rwandan Example
In response, the Rwandangovernment armed ethnic Tutsis(Banyamulenge) in Eastern Zaire,leading to the 1996Banyamulenge Rebellion.
A coalition of Tutsis and rebelsled by Laurent Kabila takecontrol of the Eastern part ofZaire in 1996.
This was the beginning of thefirst and second Congo wars.
Hutu militia (FDLR) remain inthe region today and continue tobe the source conflict.
Nathan Nunn Professor of Economics Harvard University Foreign Aid and Conflict
Humanitarian Aid and Conflict: Concerns and Channels
Aid shipments and other resources are often stolen en route.
Aid recipients can be ‘refugee warriors’.
Even when aid reaches its intended recipients, it may be‘taxed’ ex post.
Aid workers often have to work with rebel groups to distributeaid.
Groups are often hired to provide protection.May be perceived as the ones providing the assistance,increasing their legitimacy.
Nathan Nunn Professor of Economics Harvard University Foreign Aid and Conflict
Questions
How do we know if these stories are representative?
How do we know if these stories are causal?
Nathan Nunn Professor of Economics Harvard University Foreign Aid and Conflict
Questions
How do we know if these stories are representative?
How do we know if these stories are causal?
Nathan Nunn Professor of Economics Harvard University Foreign Aid and Conflict
Challenges facing any statistical analysis
1 The provision of aid is endogenous to conflict:
Need is greater when there is conflict.Delivery is more difficult when there is instability or conflict.
2 Provision is also correlated with things that are related toconflict:
Poor governance, poverty, malnutrition, natural disasters, etc.
Nathan Nunn Professor of Economics Harvard University Foreign Aid and Conflict
Statistical Strategy, Part 1
Focus on U.S. wheat aid.
Exploit variation that is due toweather shocks that affectproduction.
In the years following a wheatboom, government reservesaccumulate, and more food aidis given.
This variation is exogenous tothe conditions in receivingcountries.
Nathan Nunn Professor of Economics Harvard University Foreign Aid and Conflict
U.S. Wheat Production over Time
19711972
19731974
19751976
1977
1978
1979
1980
19811982
1983
1984
1985
19861987
1988
1989
1990
1991
19921993
1994
1995
1996
19971998
19992000
2001
2002
2003
20042005
2006
4060
80U
.S. w
heat
pro
duct
ion
(mil
MT)
1971 2006Year
Nathan Nunn Professor of Economics Harvard University Foreign Aid and Conflict
Wheat Production and Total Wheat Reserves
1971
1972
19731974
1975
19761977
197819791980
1981
1982
19831984
19851986
1987
1988
1989
1990
19911992 1993
1994
19951996
1997
199819992000
2001
20022003 20042005
2006
1020
3040
50In
itial
U.S
. whe
at s
tock
(mil
MT)
40 50 60 70 80Previous year's U.S. wheat production (mil MT)
(coef = 0.503, t = 2.85, N = 36, R2 = 0.19)
Nathan Nunn Professor of Economics Harvard University Foreign Aid and Conflict
Total Wheat Reserves and Wheat Aid
1971
1972
1973
19741975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981 19821983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
199119921993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998 19992000
2001
2002
20032004
2005
200612
34
56
Flow
of U
.S. w
heat
aid
in fo
llow
ing
year
(mil
MT)
10 20 30 40 50 60Initial U.S. wheat stock (mil MT)
(coef = .086, t = 6.25, N = 36, R2 = 0.54)
Nathan Nunn Professor of Economics Harvard University Foreign Aid and Conflict
Statistical Strategy, Part 2
Wheat aid is not distributed toall countries equally.
Some countries are regularrecipients of U.S. wheat aid andothers are not.
Those who tend not to receiveU.S. wheat aid provide anatural comparison group thatcan be used as a ‘control’.
Nathan Nunn Professor of Economics Harvard University Foreign Aid and Conflict
Regular U.S. Food Aid Recipients
1971
1972
19731974
19751976
197719781979
19801981
198219831984
198519861987
1988
19891990
1991
1992
1993
1994
19951996
19971998
199920002001
20022003 2004
20052006
0.1
.2.3
.4Av
erag
e in
cide
nce
of c
ivil
confl
ict
40 50 60 70 80Previous year's U.S. wheat production (mil MT)
(coef = 0.00385, t = 3.99, N = 36, R2 = 0.32)
Nathan Nunn Professor of Economics Harvard University Foreign Aid and Conflict
Irregular U.S. Food Aid Recipients
19711972
1973
1974
1975 197619771978
1979
19801981 1982
1983
19841985
198619871988
1989
19901991
199219931994
199519961997
19981999
2000200120022003
2004
20052006
0.1
.2.3
.4Av
erag
e in
cide
nce
of c
ivil
confl
ict
40 50 60 70 80Previous year's U.S. wheat production (mil MT)
(coef = 0.00079, t = 1.23 , N = 36, R2 = 0.04)
Nathan Nunn Professor of Economics Harvard University Foreign Aid and Conflict
Assessing the Magnitudes of the Estimates
If the average country received 10% more U.S. wheat aid, itsconflict incidence would increase by 4%.
Nathan Nunn Professor of Economics Harvard University Foreign Aid and Conflict
Where Does This Leave Us?
Does this mean that we should not give food aid or evenhumanitarian aid?
Not necessarily. . .
For the following reasons:1 We find that our estimates are driven by countries with a
recent history of conflict.
For countries with no history of conflict, food aid does notcause conflict.
2 The estimated effects are for food aid that is ‘in kind’.
Increasingly, food assistance has become cash-based.It is possible that these effects are very different.
3 Effects likely depend on what precautions are taken duringdistribution.
Nathan Nunn Professor of Economics Harvard University Foreign Aid and Conflict
Where Does This Leave Us?
Does this mean that we should not give food aid or evenhumanitarian aid? Not necessarily. . .
For the following reasons:1 We find that our estimates are driven by countries with a
recent history of conflict.
For countries with no history of conflict, food aid does notcause conflict.
2 The estimated effects are for food aid that is ‘in kind’.
Increasingly, food assistance has become cash-based.It is possible that these effects are very different.
3 Effects likely depend on what precautions are taken duringdistribution.
Nathan Nunn Professor of Economics Harvard University Foreign Aid and Conflict
Where Does This Leave Us?
Does this mean that we should not give food aid or evenhumanitarian aid? Not necessarily. . .
For the following reasons:
1 We find that our estimates are driven by countries with arecent history of conflict.
For countries with no history of conflict, food aid does notcause conflict.
2 The estimated effects are for food aid that is ‘in kind’.
Increasingly, food assistance has become cash-based.It is possible that these effects are very different.
3 Effects likely depend on what precautions are taken duringdistribution.
Nathan Nunn Professor of Economics Harvard University Foreign Aid and Conflict
Where Does This Leave Us?
Does this mean that we should not give food aid or evenhumanitarian aid? Not necessarily. . .
For the following reasons:1 We find that our estimates are driven by countries with a
recent history of conflict.
For countries with no history of conflict, food aid does notcause conflict.
2 The estimated effects are for food aid that is ‘in kind’.
Increasingly, food assistance has become cash-based.It is possible that these effects are very different.
3 Effects likely depend on what precautions are taken duringdistribution.
Nathan Nunn Professor of Economics Harvard University Foreign Aid and Conflict
Where Does This Leave Us?
Does this mean that we should not give food aid or evenhumanitarian aid? Not necessarily. . .
For the following reasons:1 We find that our estimates are driven by countries with a
recent history of conflict.
For countries with no history of conflict, food aid does notcause conflict.
2 The estimated effects are for food aid that is ‘in kind’.
Increasingly, food assistance has become cash-based.It is possible that these effects are very different.
3 Effects likely depend on what precautions are taken duringdistribution.
Nathan Nunn Professor of Economics Harvard University Foreign Aid and Conflict
Where Does This Leave Us?
Does this mean that we should not give food aid or evenhumanitarian aid? Not necessarily. . .
For the following reasons:1 We find that our estimates are driven by countries with a
recent history of conflict.
For countries with no history of conflict, food aid does notcause conflict.
2 The estimated effects are for food aid that is ‘in kind’.
Increasingly, food assistance has become cash-based.It is possible that these effects are very different.
3 Effects likely depend on what precautions are taken duringdistribution.
Nathan Nunn Professor of Economics Harvard University Foreign Aid and Conflict