Global Modeling and Assimilation Officegmao.gsfc.nasa.govGMAO

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Near real-time global composition forecasts at 25km horizontal

resolutionK. Emma Knowland

USRA/GESTARNASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO)

In collaboration with:GMAO: Christoph Keller, Lesley Ott, Steven Pawson, Emily Saunders, Pamela WalesAtmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Lab: Bryan Duncan, Melanie Follette-Cook, Junhua Liu, Julie Nicely

8 May 2019

Global Modeling and Assimilation Officegmao.gsfc.nasa.govGMAO

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

NASA GMAO global meteorology and chemistry products

2

GEOS

Forecasting Reanalysis

GEOS-FP MERRA-2GEOS-FPIT

GEOS-CF

k.e.knowland@nasa.govchristoph.a.keller@nasa.gov

Global Modeling and Assimilation Officegmao.gsfc.nasa.govGMAO

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

NASA’s composition forecast (GEOS-CF)

3

Ozone (O3)

Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2)

Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5)k.e.knowland@nasa.gov

christoph.a.keller@nasa.gov

GEOS FPIT

GEOS - Chem

Global Modeling and Assimilation Officegmao.gsfc.nasa.govGMAO

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

GEOS-Chem version 12

4k.e.knowland@nasa.govchristoph.a.keller@nasa.gov

ØSame version as GEOS-Chem Classic

ØThere are differences for emissions, as GEOS-CF

is run in near-real time (e.g., QFED)

Global Modeling and Assimilation Officegmao.gsfc.nasa.govGMAO

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

5

GEOS FPIT

k.e.knowland@nasa.govchristoph.a.keller@nasa.gov

Daily composition forecast

GEOS - CF

One 5-day forecast per dayØ1-day hindcastØ5-day forecastØc360 (0.25°, ~25x25 km2)

resolution, 72 model layers

GEOS - Chem

Global Modeling and Assimilation Officegmao.gsfc.nasa.govGMAO

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

6

GEOS FPIT

k.e.knowland@nasa.govchristoph.a.keller@nasa.gov

Daily composition forecast

GEOS - CF

One 5-day forecast per dayØ1-day hindcastØ5-day forecastØc360 (0.25°, ~25x25 km2)Ø15 minute “surface” Ø1-hour average and

instantaneous 2D & 3D GEOS - Chem

Global Modeling and Assimilation Officegmao.gsfc.nasa.govGMAO

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

7

GEOS FPIT

k.e.knowland@nasa.govchristoph.a.keller@nasa.gov

Daily composition forecast

GEOS - CF

One 5-day forecast per dayØ1-day hindcastØ5-day forecastØc360 (0.25°, ~25x25 km2)

Ø1 January 2018 - NRTGEOS - Chem

Global Modeling and Assimilation Officegmao.gsfc.nasa.govGMAO

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

8

GEOS FPIT

GEOS - Chemk.e.knowland@nasa.gov

christoph.a.keller@nasa.gov

ØCurrently no direct data assimilation of constituents in GEOS-CF

ØGOCART aerosols constrained by satellite measurements of AOD

ØBiomass burning emissions from QFED

GEOS - CF

Daily composition forecast

Global Modeling and Assimilation Officegmao.gsfc.nasa.govGMAO

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Case study: agricultural fires in India

Observation GEOS-CF0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5

MODIS fires Nov 01, 2017

9k.e.knowland@nasa.govchristoph.a.keller@nasa.gov

Global Modeling and Assimilation Officegmao.gsfc.nasa.govGMAO

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

10k.e.knowland@nasa.govchristoph.a.keller@nasa.gov

ØCurrently no direct data assimilation of constituents in GEOS-CF

ØAnnual emission scale factors based on satellite

ØScale factors applied to emissions for diurnal and weekly variations

GEOS - CF

Daily composition forecast

Observation GEOS-CF0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5

Global Modeling and Assimilation Officegmao.gsfc.nasa.govGMAO

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

11

GEOS FPIT

GEOS - Chemk.e.knowland@nasa.gov

christoph.a.keller@nasa.gov

Ø Currently no direct data assimilation of constituents in GEOS-CF

ØStratospheric Ozone relaxed to GEOS-FP O3

GEOS - CF

Daily composition forecast

Global Modeling and Assimilation Officegmao.gsfc.nasa.govGMAO

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Stratospheric Composition Evaluation

Zonal means for the Tropics (20oS – 20oN)

Global Modeling and Assimilation Officegmao.gsfc.nasa.govGMAO

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

k.e.knowland@nasa.gov :: christoph.a.keller@nasa.gov

Summary• GEOS-CF produces daily global air quality forecasts at

25km (16 miles) horizontal resolution since 1 January 2018• Output available at fluid.nccs.nasa.gov/cf

13k.e.knowland@nasa.govchristoph.a.keller@nasa.gov

Global Modeling and Assimilation Officegmao.gsfc.nasa.govGMAO

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Thank you!

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k.e.knowland@nasa.gov :: christoph.a.keller@nasa.gov

k.e.knowland@nasa.govchristoph.a.keller@nasa.gov

https:/fluid.nccs.nasa.gov/cf