Forecasting/Simulation Interface on I-694 Reconstruction from I-35E to I-35W

Forecasting/Simulation Interface on I-694 Reconstruction from I-35E to I-35W

Mn/DOT Travel Demand Modeling Coordinating Committee

December 12, 2005 Meeting

Jaimie Sloboden

I-694 Reconstruction from I-35E to I-35WI-694 Reconstruction from I-35E to I-35W

• Widen I-694 from 4-lanes to 6-lanes

• Modification/reconstruction of 5 interchanges– I-35W– TH 10/Snelling/Hamline– Lexington– Victoria St– Rice Street

• Completes Un-weave the weave

• I-35W not part of the “plan”

Project LimitsProject Limits

MN/DOT’s Freeway Simulation ProcessMN/DOT’s Freeway Simulation Process

• CORSIM is the Current Simulation Program (being reviewed by Eil Kwon and U of M)

• Field Observations

• Base Model Development

• Error Checking

• Model Calibration– Driver Behavior

• Alternatives Analysis

• Final Report

Simulation Limits (physical)Simulation Limits (physical)

Simulation Limits (Temporal)Simulation Limits (Temporal)

• Duration of Congestion in Metro Area is 3 to 5 hours per peak period

• 1 hour simulation models in metro inadequate (Lake St Access Case Study proved this)

• 15 minute data AM Peak Period Traffic Flow:

Northbound HWY 100 North of TH 7

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Time

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tra

ffic

vp

h Peak Period

Peak Hour

Simulation Limits vs. Project LimitsSimulation Limits vs. Project Limits

• Extended Boundary Limits required to “Feed” Traffic into Project Area

• Analysis of non-project elements “required”

• Non-project elements in simulation model may or may not be part of TSP, TIP, STIP, TPP

• Non-project elements may create a bottleneck impacting the analysis

Forecasting ProcessForecasting Process

• Mn/DOT Metro Guidelines

• Reviewed and updated Land Use

• Reviewed and updated Network Attributes

• Screen line Evaluation

• Post Processing applied– Base error applied to Future error

• Reasonableness Checks

Regional Model NetworkRegional Model Network

Forecast ProductPeak Hour & DailyForecast Product

Peak Hour & Daily

Converting Forecasts to Simulation InputsConverting Forecasts to Simulation Inputs

• Single Peak Hour (forecast) converted to 3-hour 15 minute data (simulation)– 694 model had 15,000 traffic volume inputs

• Big Math Problem!

• Two Approaches– Option 1: factor existing 15 minute data by peak hour ratio– Option 2: Forecast 15-minute data o-d (Crosstown model)

• Option 1 used for I-694

Sample CalculationsSample Calculations

• Existing 15-minute pattern duplicated

• There are challenges with this process

Existing Future15-minute peak hour peak hour factor 15-minute backcheck

6:00 AM 642 8696:15 AM 797 10796:30 AM 940 12726:45 AM 1028 13917:00 AM 1005 4433 6,000 1.35 1360 59997:15 AM 1127 15257:30 AM 1273 17237:45 AM 1147 15528:00 AM 1043 14128:15 AM 956 12948:30 AM 935 12668:45 AM 910 1232

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Origin-Destination DataOrigin-Destination Data

Partial 15 minute Volume Data Base for Freeways

Partial 15 minute Volume Data Base for Freeways

Type 1 2 3 4 5Description m, off, on Station 6:00 AM 6:15 AM 6:30 AM 6:45 AM 7:00 AM

Begin I-694 EB 171 642 797 940 1028 1005Silver Lake Exit Ramp 755 45 62 62 78 86I-694 EB 173 597 735 878 950 919Siler Lake Entry Ramp 756 55 63 93 103 117I-694 EB 175 652 798 971 1053 1036Long Lake Exit Ramp 448 51 50 63 80 77I-694 EB 177 601 748 908 973 959Long Lake Entry Ramp 485 32 51 76 59 100I-694 EB 179 633 799 984 1032 1059I-35W SB Exit Ramp 799 129 201 248 244 237I-694 EB 184 504 598 736 788 822I-35W SB Entry Loop 738 81 104 90 74 103I-694 EB 320 585 702 826 862 925I-35W NB Exit Loop 975 87 141 182 200 214I-694 EB 203 498 561 644 662 711I-35W NB Entry Ramp 866 31 48 51 60 54I-694 EB 1074 529 609 695 722 765TH 10 Entry 321 450 510 545 550 536I-694 EB 1075 979 1119 1240 1272 1301Snelling Exit 4226 80 168 207 235 261I-694 EB 1076 899 951 1033 1037 1040Hamline Entry Ramp 4230 18 6 12 22 19

System Origin-Destination DataSystem Origin-Destination Data

502 510 520 524Detector 755 448 799 975

Name Station Node # Volume Vol Vol % New Volume Vol Vol % New Volume Vol Vol % New Volume Vol Vol % New Volume VolEB I-694 171 500 1104 120 0.11 984 64 0.06 920 173 0.16 747 254 0.23 493 53Silver Lake Rd Entrance 756 504 105 0 0.00 105 7 0.07 98 18 0.17 80 27 0.26 53 6Long Lake Rd Entrance 485 513 46 0 0.00 46 0 0.00 46 9 0.20 37 13 0.28 24 3From SB I-35W 738 522 53 0 0.00 53 0 0.00 53 0 0.00 53 0 0.00 53 6From NB I-35W 866 526 116 0 0.00 116 0 0.00 116 0 0.00 116 0 0.00 116 13TH 10 Entrance 321 532 339 0 0.00 339 0 0.00 339 0 0.00 339 0 0.00 339 20Snelling Ave Entrance 4230 538 35 0 0.00 35 0 0.00 35 0 0.00 35 0 0.00 35 0Lexington Ave Entrance 4249 543 197 0 0.00 197 0 0.00 197 0 0.00 197 0 0.00 197 0

Victoria ST Entrance 4278 553 84 0 0.00 84 0 0.00 84 0 0.00 84 0 0.00 84 0Rice ST Entrance 325 564 127 0 0.00 127 0 0.00 127 0 0.00 127 0 0.00 127 0NB I-35E Entrance 329 573 777 0 0.00 777 0 0.00 777 0 0.00 777 0 0.00 777 0

2983 120 71 200 294 100120 71 200 294 101

I-694 Eastbound (PM)Exit Location

Silver Lake Rd Exit Long Lake Rd Exit To SB I-35W To NB I-35W Snelling Ave Exit

Entry Location

ConclusionsConclusions

• Better interaction required between Forecasting and Simulation processes– Preparing 15-minute forecasts for simulations

problematic

• Forecasting process needs to catch up with Simulation– Qa/QC– Network coding errors– Systematic approach

• Simulation exposes many issues with the “Plan”, dealing with these new issues