Forecasting the Future - Keegan & Coppin Company, Inc. · Forecasting the Future Marin County’s...
Transcript of Forecasting the Future - Keegan & Coppin Company, Inc. · Forecasting the Future Marin County’s...
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Forecasting the FutureMarin County’s Economy to 2020:
What Can We See Well?
San Rafael, CA January 29, 2019
Robert Eyler, PhDChief Economist, Marin Economic Forum
Agenda• National and State Overview: is recession coming
soon?• Slowdown likely for 2019 and 2020, recession before late
2020 unlikely
• Overview: Marin County and North Bay• Fire rebuild and expansion of disaster
• Jobs and income growth continue
• Workforce and housing and commute concerns to continue
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National/Global Themes
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Source: Google Images
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What do the professionals say?
Source: Philadelphia Federal Reserve Branch
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Equity Markets: S&P 500 (Monthly Index)
Shaded dates = recession, Jan 2009 – Jan 15, 2019
8Prices: FED Watching
10 yr - 3 Month Spread and Federal Funds Rate,
Jan 1985 to October 2018, % Weekly Avg
So What?
• National/global: • Low Interest rates: still pretty good historically
• Fiscal concerns and federal zaniness not a help
• Recession unlikely before 2020, maybe 2021… but,• Likely a mild recession because of mild growth
• Slowdown versus actual contraction: close relatives
• Marin County affected by global markets with lag• Housing and labor markets remain good foundationally
• Watch Bay Area major employers over next 18 months
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California and North Bay Thinking Fires, Housing, Labor
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Fires affect supply for sure…what about demand?
Marin County probably, dubiously positively affected
When insurance funding runs out, may be a short-run scramble in housing/labor in North Bay
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CA SF Oak SJ Marin
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Non-Farm 12-month % Change, Seasonally Adjusted
Marin County and California, 2001 - Sept 2018
Source: California EDD
$19.20
$23.81
$30.42
$38.27
$44.55
$27.29 $27.85
$-
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10 25 50 75 90
Percent of Workers
Marin County Sonoma County Napa County
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Comparative Wage Distributions, North Bay, 2018,
Current Dollars
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
$1,134,700
$623,100
$890,448
$0
$200,000
$400,000
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$800,000
$1,000,000
$1,200,000
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Marin County, Median Home Prices, 2009 $
Current Value Real (2009$)
Housing Prices, Marin CountyCurrent and 2009 Dollars, April 1996 – Sept 2018
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$962,900
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Comparative Rents, Bay Area, 2011, 2015 and 2018, % of Sonoma County
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$4,400
Zillow Forecast by County, 2019, % Growth Median Home Price (solid line = CA +7.7%)
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Total Wage and Salary
Farm
Construction
Manu
Trans-Util
Wholesale and Retail
Finance
Prof Serv
Info
Health and Ed
Leisure
Government
California Marin County
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Marin County Jobs, 2018-2027, % Growth
Source: CA Economic Forecast/CalTrans
Bottom Line
• More volatility coming in financial markets
• All positive cycles must end, but can be slower growth vs. contraction
• North Bay and Marin County to continue the struggle with wages, commuting and housing: all related
• Housing is a supply and demand game, don’t get too deep
• Mid 2020s the real challenge coming, depends on longer work lives and the nature of work
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What to Watch: Forecasting the Future
• Geopolitics and market reactions• Interest rate watch• Bay Area employment and quick cuts• Home building in North Bay• Marin County employers and wages• Workforce Development and Business
Retention and Expansion
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