Forecasting Extreme Cold Snaps in the Midwest/Northeast U.S.

Dr. Alexander GershunovDr. Kristen GuirguisStephen Bennett, JD

Special thanks to SPHEAR’s 2009-2010 Industry Partners

Citadel Investment GroupSusquehanna International

GroupChesapeake Energy

Research QuestionCan we develop new methods for predicting

the severe shocks in natural gas consumption and natural gas price

associated with severe cold outbreaks in winter?

2009/2010 – How cold was it?

Nov - Mar Dec - Feb

Define EventsScripps Severe Cold Index – Reanalysis

Calculation

Scripps Severe Cold Index

• Uses data : 1948-2010

• Local threshold calculated for each location (5th percentile)

• For each day and station, the number of degrees below the threshold is recorded

• The SSCI is the average of all local threshold exceedances

℗ Process Patent PendingUniversity of California San Diego

Europe/Mediterranean: 20th Northern Europe: 51st

Central Asia: 52nd

Russia: 55th

Far East: Warmest

Canada: 2nd

Alaska/Yukon: 3rd

Eastern U.S.: 9th

℗ Process Patent PendingUniversity of California San Diego

℗ Process Patent PendingUniversity of California San Diego

Scripps Severe Cold Index: Midwest/Northeast U.S.

Station Calculation

Primary Findings

Several synoptic signatures indicate a statistically significant signal with a lead time of 20-30 days when linked to the incidence of severe cold outbreaks.

℗ Process Patent PendingUniversity of California San Diego

Operational Case StudyNovember 22, 2009

Based on SPHEAR analysis – it appears that the risk for a severe cold outbreak is less than 5% between today and December 1, 2009.

However, models indicate that several significant variables appear to be developing after December 1st

that tend to precede severe cold outbreaks by about 5 days.

Additionally, some currently observed variables appear to have a significant link to outbreaks at a 10-20 day lead.

The probability for a severe cold outbreak between December 1st and December 25th is estimated to be greater than 50%.

℗ Process Patent PendingUniversity of California San Diego

Scripps Severe Cold IndexWinter 2009/2010

℗ Process Patent PendingUniversity of California San Diego

Scripps Partnership for Hazards and

Environmental Applied Research

Executive DirectorStephen Bennett

StephenBennett@ucsd.edu858-246-0065