Forecasting Eddy Ulysses Patrice D. Coholan and Steven P. Anderson Horizon Marine, Inc. (Marion, MA)...
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Transcript of Forecasting Eddy Ulysses Patrice D. Coholan and Steven P. Anderson Horizon Marine, Inc. (Marion, MA)...
Forecasting Eddy Ulysses
Patrice D. Coholan and Steven P. AndersonHorizon Marine, Inc.
(Marion, MA)
Sergei FrolovAccurate Environmental Forecasting, Inc.
(Narragansett, RI)
Dynamic Positioning Conference
November 15 - 16, 2005
Sensors II
Waiting On Currents….W O C When will it go away?
When will the Loop/eddy hit our site?
?
?
?
How long will it shut us down?
EDDY FORECAST SYSTEM COMPONENTS
INITIALIZATIONCOMPONENT
OBSERVATIONAL DATA
HISTORICAL KNOWLEDGE
PHYSICAL PRINCIPLESNOWCAST
PREDICTIONCOMPONENT
FORECAST
TYPICAL OCEAN FORECAST SYSTEM
SATELLITE ALTIMETRY
MODEL
FORECAST
NOWCAST
AUTOMATED DATA
ASSIMILATION
SATELLITE ALTIMETRY ANALYSIS 15 SEPTEMBER 2004
Courtesy of R. Leben CU-CCAR
EDDY WATCH GULF CHART 15 SEPTEMBER 2004
MC
GC
WR
AEF- HORIZON EDDY FORECAST SYSTEM
INITIAL CONDITIONS(NOWCAST)
FORECAST
INTELLIGENT DATA
ANALYSIS
INITIALIZATION PROCEDURE
MODEL
ALL OBSERVATIONAL
DATA AVAILABLE IN REAL TIME
OBSERVATIONAL DATA
• Drifting buoys
• Airborne eXpendable BathyThermographs (AXBTs)
• Ocean current surveys
• Rig mounted Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCPs)
• SST and ocean color
• Rig and pilot observations
• Altimetry
FAR HORIZON DRIFTING BUOYS
EXPERIENCE
Over 1700 FHDs successfully deployed at sea
• Eddy Watch – GOM (1705)• Eddy Watch – Trinidad (69)• Hurricane• Oil Spill• Search & Rescue• Ring & Eddy Surveys• Vessel Tracking• Instrument Recovery• Plankton Studies, etc.
EDDY WATCH GOM CHART
EDDYULYSSES
LOOPCURRENT
TITANICEDDY
WE
CE
CE
GULF of MEXICO09 September 2004
EDDY WATCH REPORT
EDDY WATCH CENTRAL GULF CHART
EDDYULYSSES
LC
CE
CE
GULF of MEXICO09 September 2004
EDDY WATCH REPORT
IDENTIFICATION OF EDDY FEATURES
• Eddy size
• Eddy shape
• Rotation and migration
• Vertical density structure
• Swirl speed
• Surrounding cyclonic eddies
INITIALIZATION COMPONENT
• Analysis of observational data
• Identification of significant eddy features
• Initialization component
• Formulation of a “nowcast” • Model forecast
SATELLITE ALTIMETRY
MODEL FORECAST
NOWCASTAUTOMATED
DATA ASSIMILATION
COMPARISON OF TYPICAL OCEAN FORECAST SYSTEM…
INITIAL CONDITIONS(NOWCAST)
FORECAST
INTELLIGENT DATA
ANALYSIS INITIALIZATION PROCEDURE
MODEL
….WITH AEF-HMI EDDY FORECAST SYSTEM
ALL OBSERVATIONAL DATA AVAILABLE IN
REAL TIME
SUMMARY
• New Loop Current/Eddy forecasting system now available
• Skill in predicting currents out 1 month
• Advance knowledge of currents answers questions