Forecasting and Communicating AQI Hot Spots Joseph Cassmassi & Kevin Durkee Joseph Cassmassi & Kevin...
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Transcript of Forecasting and Communicating AQI Hot Spots Joseph Cassmassi & Kevin Durkee Joseph Cassmassi & Kevin...
Forecasting and Communicating AQI Hot Spots
Joseph Cassmassi & Kevin DurkeeSouth Coast Air Quality Management District
2011 National Air Quality Conferences
San Diego, CA
March 9, 2011
South Coast Air Basin:• 10,743 square miles• 16 million people• 11 million gasoline
vehicles• 300,000 diesel
vehicles
South Coast Air QualityManagement District
MDAB
SSAB
SoCAB MDAB
SCAQMD Programs that Provide Some Insight into AQI Hot Spot ForecastingRoutine Multi-Area AQI Forecasts
45 Source-Receptor AreasDaily O3, CO, NO2, PM10, PM2.5
Coachella Valley windblown dust forecasts & advisoriesPrescribed and agricultural burn forecastsResidential wood burning forecasts Emergency response forecasts and advisories
e.g., wildfires and hazardous release support Field Study Forecasting
Support of special monitoring studies and field campaigns
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Forecasts: 45 Source-Receptor Areas
MDAB
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Primary Air Quality Impact Areas
CO
PM10, PM2.5
PM2.5, NO2
O3
O3
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SCAQMD Ambient Monitoring Network
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SCAQMD Air Quality Forecast Map
AQMD Website: http://www.aqmd.gov 8
Interactive Air Quality Monitoring Map
Incorporates real-time data from stations and mobile monitors
Proxy method to extrapolate levels in unmonitored areas
Color-coded to Air Quality Index
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Advisories
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Some Recent Near-Source Monitoring ExperiencePort Studies
Community-based monitoring near Ports of Los Angeles & Long BeachAlameda Corridor Study
Near-road monitoring of goods movement route from ports CO, NOx, PM, Black Carbon, …
MATES III Multiple Air Toxics Exposure Study
Lead Monitoring Source-Specific TSP Lead
Airport Studies Large airports (LAX Study) General aviation (Van Nuys, Santa Monica, Long Beach)
Wildfire response monitoring eBAM PM2.5 portable monitors
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Thoughts on Forecasting & Communicating AQI for Hot SpotsDevelop Tools
Reliable real-time monitoring is critical, including meteorology Need visualization tools for measurement data Automate routine tasks where possible to give forecasters time to analyze
data Use models to provide forecast guidance
Need historical data for development
Develop Forecaster ConfidenceKnow your Target AudienceAvoid Conflicting Messages
Have a consistent messaging system for both ambient and near-source forecasts and alerts News media, email/EnviroFlash, web, phone aps, IVR/phone messaging, …
Keep messages simple Don’t expect detailed news coverage every day Don’t Cry Wolf
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Some IssuesNear-source monitors won’t always be in the right location
Changing meteorological conditionsEffects of buildings, sound walls, roadway turbulenceChemical reactions cause changes with distance
How do we communicate AQI near sources?Measurements will vary considerably by time of day, day of
week, traffic pattern, wind flows, stability, …Messaging may be complicatedMay need to focus AQI messaging on the population with the
worst impactResearch may need to focus on health impacts of shorter
activity-based exposure times“Tomorrow’s air quality in your area is predicted to be in the Moderate
range, but rush hour commuters and residences who will be on or near major roadways for over one hour will experience Unhealthy air quality.”
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