Forecast Scheduling with Microsoft Office Project 2010

© ProjectPro Corp. 1

Forecast Scheduling with Microsoft Project 2010 Forecast Scheduling with Microsoft Project 2010

A program by:

ProjectPro Corp. www.ProjectProCorp.com

President ProjectPro Corp.

Specializes in Microsoft Project and Project Server

Presenter Intro: Eric Uyttewaal, PMP Presenter Intro: Eric Uyttewaal, PMP

BS, Engineering;

MS Business Administration

Author “Dynamic Scheduling with

Microsoft Office Project 2003” &

“Forecast Scheduling with Project

2010”

Formerly: Executive Director at IIL as

developer and manager of the Orange,

Blue, Black Belt certification curriculum

Email: EricU@ProjectProCorp.com

Tel: 613-692-7778

II

Consulting by ProjectPro: Specialties Consulting by ProjectPro: Specialties

1. Project Server 2007/2010 Implementations

2. Scheduling of Programs (links between subprojects)

3. Implementing Earned Value

4. Schedule improvement and raising scheduling maturity

© ProjectPro Corp.

ProjectPro Course Offering 2007/2010 ProjectPro Course Offering 2007/2010

Managing Programs 2 days

Program Managers

Managing Programs 2 days

Program Managers

Fundamentals 2 days

Project Managers

Fundamentals 2 days

Project Managers

Managing Tasks in PWA 0.5 day

Team Members

Managing Tasks in PWA 0.5 day

Team Members

Microsoft Project and Project Server (PS) Courses: Microsoft Project:

Managing Projects 3 days

Project Managers

Managing Projects 3 days

Project Managers

Managing Resources 2 days

Resource Managers

Managing Resources 2 days

Resource Managers

Managing Portfolios 2 days

Portfolio Managers

Managing Portfolios 2 days

Portfolio Managers

Administering PS 2 days

Administrators

Administering PS 2 days

Administrators

Deploying PS 2-5 days

Deploym. Team

Deploying PS 2-5 days

Deploym. Team

Monitoring Projects, Programs, Portfolios 0.5 – 1 day

Executives

Monitoring Projects, Programs, Portfolios 0.5 – 1 day

Executives

Configuring PS 2 days

Project Office

Configuring PS 2 days

Project Office

Forecasting Programs 2 days

Program Managers

Forecasting Programs 2 days

Program Managers

Forecast Scheduling 2 days

Project Managers

Forecast Scheduling 2 days

Project Managers

IV

Agenda Forecast Scheduling Agenda Forecast Scheduling

Capture your promises

Minimize your effort

Find the real Critical Path

Updating to forecast

© ProjectPro Corp. © ProjectPro Corp.

Chapters in the Book “Forecast

Scheduling with Microsoft Project 2010”

Chapters in the Book “Forecast

Scheduling with Microsoft Project 2010”

9

Concepts

Introduction

WBS

Estimates

Dependencies

Deadlines

Resources

Assignments

Optimal Schedule

Reports

Up-to-date Schedule

Acceptance

Setup

Planning Executing Initiating Closing

Summary

Forecast Scheduling with Microsoft Office Project 2010

© ProjectPro Corp. 2

What is a Project “Schedule”? What is a Project “Schedule”?

Project Deliverables Due Date

Requirements document Aug 12 '11

New Location Aug 30 '11

Remodeling Contract Sep 14 '11

Remodeled New Location Nov 10 '11

Move to New Location Nov 22 '11

© ProjectPro Corp.

A Schedule is a list of things created in the project and their due dates.

Question Question

Do you treat your project schedule as

A. The list of things created in the project and their due dates (single, static, deterministic schedule), or

B. The list of things created in the project and their due dates (baseline schedule) as well as a dynamic model to manage the creation process (forecast schedule)?

© ProjectPro Corp.

Patient – Project Metaphor Patient – Project Metaphor

© ProjectPro Corp.

Roof frame

sheet shingle

roof ready

Roof frame

sheet shingle

roof ready

© ProjectPro Corp.

Why Do We Schedule? Why Do We Schedule? 49

4. Forecast

3. Track

2. Delegate

1. Sell

Forecast Scheduling: What Is It? Forecast Scheduling: What Is It?

Forecast scheduling is an approach to scheduling that requires the schedule by itself to produce accurate forecasts continuously.

A “Schedule” is a model of the project to forecast it.

© ProjectPro Corp. © ProjectPro Corp.

What is a Great Schedule? What is a Great Schedule?

Valid: Schedule that produces accurate forecasts reliably

Dynamic: A schedule that updates itself as much as possible:

– Changes happen so frequently in projects

– Explore what-if scenarios to solve problems

– Roll up schedules of subprojects into large master schedule

– Perform schedule simulation for quantitative risk analysis

– Save time

Robust: a model that responds well to a variety of changes

Model: A deliberate and smart simplification of the reality

A Great Schedule is a Valid, Dynamic and Robust Model of the Project to Forecast it!

23

Forecast Scheduling with Microsoft Office Project 2010

© ProjectPro Corp. 3

© ProjectPro Corp.

Question: Promised Dates Question: Promised Dates

Whom of you enter dates in Start and Finish column?

©ProjectPro Corp.

Scheduling Software Scheduling Software

What needs to be done?

How long will it take?

In which causal order?

When should it be done?

Who is going to do it?

When will it happen?

How much will it cost?

Deliverables and Tasks

Duration or Work Estimates

Dependencies

Deadlines, Constraints, Calendars

Baseline

Resources & Assignments

Start and Finish dates

Rate * Assignment Effort

53

What To Do With Dates You Promised? What To Do With Dates You Promised?

Capture them now: Deadline Dates

Eventually: Baseline Schedule

© ProjectPro Corp.

CHAPTER 3 WBS:

Modeling the Project

CHAPTER 3 WBS:

Modeling the Project

113

Concepts

Introduction

WBS

Estimates

Dependencies

Deadlines

Resources

Assignments

Optimal Schedule

Reports

Up-to-date Schedule

Acceptance

Setup

Planning Executing Initiating Closing

Summary

© ProjectPro Corp.

The WBS Contains all the Deliverables

to Produce

The WBS Contains all the Deliverables

to Produce

116

Airframe Propulsion Test Reports Support

Aircraft

Nav./Comm.

Fuselage

Wings

Landing Gear

Engines

Radios

Flight Controls Artifacts

Trained staff

Navigation Sys. Fuel System

Wing Jets

Tail Jet

Fire Control

Fuel Lines

Fuel Tanks

Voice/Comm.

Transponder

Processors

Displays

GPS Recvr.

Radar

Spares

Equipment Cockpit

Nose Gear

Main Gear

Center Sect.

Nose Barrel

Tail

Inner Wing

Outer Wing

Aft Section

Wind Tunnel Test

Flight Test

Ground Test

Structural

Integration Simulators

Maintenance

Manuals

Budget

Aerodynamics

Performance

First flight

Performance

Project Mgt.

Schedule

© ProjectPro Corp.

What is a Deliverable? What is a Deliverable?

Characteristics of deliverables:

Deliverables must be verifiable (measurable)

Deliverables must have a client

Deliverables must be of value to the client

119

Forecast Scheduling with Microsoft Office Project 2010

© ProjectPro Corp. 4

© ProjectPro Corp.

Deliverables and the Activities to Create

Them; What is The Right Level of Detail?

Deliverables and the Activities to Create

Them; What is The Right Level of Detail?

Too little detail ?

Too much detail ?

132

© ProjectPro Corp.

The 1% - 10% Rule The 1% - 10% Rule

Durations of detail tasks should be at least 1% of the project duration, and at most 10%

Example: 3 month project: 60 business days

1% = 0.6 days rounded to 0.5 days

10% = 6 days rounded to 5 days

135

CHAPTER 5 Entering Dependencies CHAPTER 5 Entering Dependencies 203

Concepts

Introduction

WBS

Estimates

Dependencies

Deadlines

Resources

Assignments

Optimal Schedule

Reports

Up-to-date Schedule

Acceptance

Setup

Planning Executing Initiating Closing

Summary

© ProjectPro Corp.

The Principle of Dynamic Schedules The Principle of Dynamic Schedules

If one thing changes in your project, you have to change only one field in the model!

205

©ProjectPro Corp.

Prepare for exam

Take the exam

Choosing the Right Type of Dependency Choosing the Right Type of Dependency

FS

Prepare for exam

Take the exam

SF

Which is the best model of the situation: A or B?

216

A

B

© ProjectPro Corp.

REVIEW What are Dependencies? REVIEW What are Dependencies? 208

write

print

F

S

FS Dependency

Predecessor

Successor

prepare for exam

take exam

SF Dependency

Successor

Predecessor

Forecast Scheduling with Microsoft Office Project 2010

© ProjectPro Corp. 5

© ProjectPro Corp.

Expected Gains from Dynamic Schedules Expected Gains from Dynamic Schedules

Static Chart:

Make 5 changes in once: 180/5=36 revisions

Revise rest of the schedule: avg. 50 tasks

2 hours per revision

Total: 36*2=72 hours

Dynamic Model:

8 hours to set dependencies

8 hours to enter 180 changes

Total: 16 hours

206

Project: 100 tasks, 3 month duration, 180 expected changes: update 100 tasks, 30 twice, 50 other changes

Difference: 56 hours!

CHAPTER 9 Finding the Optimal Schedule CHAPTER 9 Finding the Optimal Schedule

407

Concepts

Introduction

WBS

Estimates

Dependencies

Deadlines

Resources

Assignments

Optimal Schedule

Reports

Up-to-date Schedule

Acceptance

Setup

Planning Executing Initiating Closing

Summary

Microsoft Project’s Critical Path

Definition

Microsoft Project’s Critical Path

Definition

“Task is critical when total slack <=0” leads to:

MS Project displays too many critical tasks:

MS Project displays too few critical tasks:

©ProjectPro Corp.

425-427

Parts of the

Critical Path

© ProjectPro Corp.

OVERVIEW: MS Project Displays Too Few Critical Tasks: Possible Causes OVERVIEW: MS Project Displays Too Few Critical Tasks: Possible Causes

Incomplete network logic

Constraint Dates

Elapsed Durations and Elapsed Lags

Resource Calendar: Unavailability of Resources

Task Calendars

External Predecessors

Workload Leveling

427

DEMO Incomplete Critical Path DEMO Incomplete Critical Path

Use: DEMO Perfect Critical Path.mpp

©ProjectPro Corp.

Critical Path 2.0 Definition Critical Path 2.0 Definition

The Critical Path 2.0 is the subset of activities that determines and explains the entire duration of the schedule when all schedule data that are entered into the scheduling application are taken into account.

There can be more than one Critical Path that run in parallel in a schedule.

Source: Proceedings of Critical Path 2.0 working group, Mar. 2011

©ProjectPro Corp.

Forecast Scheduling with Microsoft Office Project 2010

© ProjectPro Corp. 6

How to Get a Complete Critical Path 2.0? How to Get a Complete Critical Path 2.0?

© ProjectPro Corp.

434

1 of 2

How to Get a Complete Critical Path 2.0? “Complete Critical Paths 2.0” from www.ProjectProCorp.com

How to Get a Complete Critical Path 2.0? “Complete Critical Paths 2.0” from www.ProjectProCorp.com

© ProjectPro Corp.

435

2 of 2

© ProjectPro Corp.

Harry 3 D

Harry 2 D

Write X

Write Y

How Leveling Affects the Critical Path 1.0 How Leveling Affects the Critical Path 1.0

Harry 3 D

Harry 2 D

Write X

Write Y

495

leveling

Optimistic Forecasts

Incomplete Critical Path

Who has access to unlimited resources?

Harry 2 D

Harry 3 D

Resource Dependencies Differ from

Logical Dependencies

Resource Dependencies Differ from

Logical Dependencies

A logical dependency imposes the sequence:

© ProjectPro Corp.

Harry

Harry

Write X

Write Y

Harry

Harry

Write X

Write Y

Write

Print

OR

A resource dependency is a relationship between two tasks that does not impose sequence. The relationship is the sharing of the same resource for both tasks:

497

Example of a (Resource) Critical Path 2.0 “Complete Critical Paths 2.0” from www.ProjectProCorp.com

Example of a (Resource) Critical Path 2.0 “Complete Critical Paths 2.0” from www.ProjectProCorp.com

© ProjectPro Corp.

505 How to Get a Complete (Resource) Critical Path 2.0? “Complete Critical Paths 2.0” from www.ProjectProCorp.com

How to Get a Complete (Resource) Critical Path 2.0? “Complete Critical Paths 2.0” from www.ProjectProCorp.com

© ProjectPro Corp.

510

Forecast Scheduling with Microsoft Office Project 2010

© ProjectPro Corp. 7

CHAPTER 11 Up-to-date Schedule CHAPTER 11 Up-to-date Schedule 601

Concepts

Introduction

WBS

Estimates

Dependencies

Deadlines

Resources

Assignments

Optimal Schedule

Reports

Up-to-date Schedule

Acceptance

Setup

Planning Executing Initiating Closing

Summary

© ProjectPro Corp.

100% Design

Write specs

Code

Status Date

50%

Test unit

Test integration

Develop screens

Write help text

Deploy

75%

611 Re-baseline Entire Project or

Selected Tasks Only ?

Re-baseline Entire Project or

Selected Tasks Only ?

100%

What will happen if you re-baseline the entire project?

© ProjectPro Corp.

REVIEW What Data to Collect?

Percent Complete? 1 of 2

REVIEW What Data to Collect?

Percent Complete? 1 of 2

What does „I am at 90% complete‟ mean?

……………………………………………

……………………………………………

……………………………………………

……………………………………………

……………………………………………

I am almost finished!

I have spent 90% of my estimate

I have just figured out how to do it

Last week I was at 80%, so it must be 90%

Leave me alone; I am crunching!

623+

Recommended Data to Collect Recommended Data to Collect

© ProjectPro Corp.

626

Collect and Enter Have MS Project

calculate

Construction

projects

Physical % Complete,

Actual Start, (Actual) Finish

Actual Duration,

Remaining Duration, Earned Value, SV, CV, SPI,

CPI and EAC

Non-construction

projects

(Actual Start)

Actual Duration Remaining Duration

OR

(Actual Start) Actual Work Remaining Work

% Complete Duration Finish

Proper Updating of Schedules Proper Updating of Schedules

A. All work-already-completed is scheduled in the past (to the left of the status date)

B. At each data date, request, review and revise Remaining Durations:

– For in-progress tasks (always)

– For in-future tasks (when new insight emerges)

C. All work-still-to-be-completed is scheduled in the future (to the right of the status date)

© ProjectPro Corp. © ProjectPro Corp.

100% Design

Write specs

Code

Status Date

75%

Test unit

Test integration

Develop screens

Write help text

Deploy

50%

Completed Work Scheduled in Past

(Visually)

Completed Work Scheduled in Past

(Visually)

100%

Forecast Scheduling with Microsoft Office Project 2010

© ProjectPro Corp. 8

© ProjectPro Corp.

100% Design

Write specs

Code

Status Date

75%

Test unit

Test integration

Develop screens

Write help text

Deploy

50%

Work-still-to-be-completed Scheduled in

the Future (Visually)

Work-still-to-be-completed Scheduled in

the Future (Visually)

100%

Forecast Scheduling: Key Take-Away’s Forecast Scheduling: Key Take-Away’s

Capture your promises

– Project managers will capture promised dates not in Finish but in the Deadline date field.

– They optimize their schedule so deadlines are met, then baseline the schedule.

Minimize your effort

– Project managers will create a dynamic model to minimize the time spent on scheduling

Find the real Critical Path 2.0

Updating to forecast

– Project managers will update their schedules in such a way that the schedule forecasts

© ProjectPro Corp.

603

Thank You for Attending ! Thank You for Attending !

Buy the book now at 33% discount (one-time offer):

– Cash: $60 – 33% = $40 + HST = $45

– Credit Card: www.projectprocorp.com Product Discount Code: MPUG33

Forecast Scheduling course coming up:

– Project World: May 16+17

– Four 3-hour live Webinars on Jun 14, 15, 21 and 22, 2011

Bring the 2-day Forecast Scheduling workshop on your site (pick up flyer)

Discuss with professional schedulers online: LinkedIn group “Forecast Scheduling”

Drop your business card in the box if you would like to receive a PDF-file of the slideshow