For professional / institutional / qualified investors only ... International • CR Intrinsic,...

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Opportunity ahead An environment primed for merger arbitrage success The current landscape of heightened merger activity combined with limited trading demand should create a target-rich environment for a merger arbitrage strategy. This approach has typically exhibited low correlation to broad capital markets and other hedge fund strategies, potential loss limitation in times of market stress, and tends to benefit from rising interest rates. We believe UBS O’Connor’s Merger Arbitrage team is positioned to take advantage of the complex opportunities today’s markets provide. For professional / institutional / qualified investors only UBS Asset Management

Transcript of For professional / institutional / qualified investors only ... International • CR Intrinsic,...

Opportunity aheadAn environment primed for merger arbitrage success

The current landscape of heightened merger activity combined with limited trading demand should create a target-rich environment for a merger arbitrage strategy. This approach has typically exhibited low correlation to broad capital markets and other hedge fund strategies, potential loss limitation in times of market stress, and tends to benefit from rising interest rates. We believe UBS O’Connor’s Merger Arbitrage team is positioned to take advantage of the complex opportunities today’s markets provide.

For professional / institutional / qualified investors only

UBS Asset Management

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Slow and steady growth fosters a healthy deal environment…

Although investors have faced numerous challenges since the financial crisis of 2008, things seem to be looking up. Economic growth appears to be hitting the sweet spot—positive but not over-

heated. This can benefit mergers & acquisitions (M&A) activity, which historically is closely tied to both the S&P 500 Index and gross domestic product (GDP).

The current environment creates attrac-tive opportunities for M&A activity—and for skilled merger arbitrage managers.

Figure 1: Quarterly number of global announced M&A transactions vs. S&P 500

Figure 2: Quarterly number of global announced M&A transactions vs. economic growth

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Fact: According to an Ernst & Young (EY) survey, 64% of executives polled believe the global economy is improving.1

Source: Morgan Stanley, Thompson Reuters.

Source: Morgan Stanley, Thompson Reuters.

1 EY Global Capital Confidence Barometer, April 2017. Ey.com/ccb.

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2 Source: Thompson Reuters, “Companies cheer Trump tax cuts, but jobs are less certain to follow,” David Shepardson and Diane Bartz, April 26, 2017.3 Source: Dealogic.

…while the political landscape is evolving…

Recent elections are spurring political changes worldwide. While many expect the new US administration to positively impact the M&A environment in the US, uncertainty abroad is likely to add a layer of complexity to deal-making in the coming years.

Positive factorsCorporate tax reform. The Trump administration has made corporate tax reform a priority. One potential reform would reduce the onshore tax burden on U.S. corporations, while allowing the repatriation of assets held outside the country. Currently, large U.S. companies have nearly USD 1.8 trillion in cash stockpiled overseas that could be used for M&A activity.2 For reference, an earlier tax holiday in 2004 increased deal volume by 34%.3

Reduced regulation. Antitrust is usually the biggest threat to deal completions – and in 2016, we saw several regulatory challenges lead to high-profile deal breaks. However, Republican administra-tions tend to be less supportive of antitrust enforcement, and the current administration has already signaled its intention to take a more hands-off approach to M&A oversight.

Potential challengesBrexit. Many executives are tentative in their view of the UK’s economy in the wake of the UK referendum. While a departure from the EU may result in a positive outcome, we believe there are likely to be bumps in the road. Additionally, the referendum raises the question as to whether other European countries will follow suit.

Headwinds in China. Increased regulation and scrutiny on outbound investments in China may have an impact on deal activity. However, the Chinese government has stressed that this scrutiny is being imposed to control the quality of acquisitions, rather than to deter acquisitions altogether.

“ We believe the current political environment provides a tailwind for merger arbitrage, with reduced regulation and tax reform likely benefitting deal flow in the coming years. Additionally, cash balances, low funding costs and corporate confidence all remain supportive of continued corporate merger activity.”

Blake Hiltabrand, Head of Merger Arbitrage Research

and Senior Portfolio Manager at UBS O‘Connor

1 EY Global Capital Confidence Barometer, April 2017. Ey.com/ccb.

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… in the midst of a supply and demand mismatch…

As the expected supply of M&A deals grows larger, the overall picture for merger arbitrage strategies is becoming brighter. Positive factors include:

Fewer players The advent of the Volcker Rule limited the ability of investment banks to engage in proprietary trading, and as a result, merger arbitrage buyers have faced less competition. The mismatch between supply and demand has caused M&A deal spreads to widen, creating favorable conditions for merger arbitrage managers.

Bigger rewards The median weighted average cost of capital (WACC) for S&P 500 companies has fallen to 7.6%, its lowest level since 2004 (see Figure 3). This means that, perhaps more than ever, companies are incentivized to invest, as there is better likelihood of making a profit after providing shareholder returns and interest expense is high. Even as interest rates are poised to rise slowly, the cost of capital is expected to remain low, presenting an opportunity for companies to pursue more aggressive acquisitions.

Excess capital for deployment With more than USD 800 billion in “dry powder” available for investment purposes, we believe private equity funds will likely feel pressure to deploy capital in the years ahead (see Figure 4). The competition between corporate buyers and private equity investors should lead to more money chasing deals.

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Figure 3: Historical S&P 500 WACC analysis Figure 4: Private Equity Dry Powder (December 2006–December 2016)

Source: J.P. Morgan, FactSet, Bloomberg, Moody’s. S&P 500 index excludes financials.

Source: Prequin

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…and executives are feeling the pressure to outpace competitors…

Fact: 33% percent of executives who participated in the survey plan to increase their deal completions over the next 12 months as a way to create inorganic growth.4

4 EY Global Capital Confidence Barometer, April 2017. Ey.com/ccb.

While the strengthening economy is expected to boost returns for prevailing companies, executives are forced to seek out sources for inorganic growth— or fall behind their competition.

As noted by EY, “Geopolitical issues may dominate the headlines, but boards are laser-focused on countermeasures against technological disruption and seizing new routes to growth. Those countermeasures will often involve M&A.”4

Digital innovationsDigital innovation places significant pressure on corporate growth. As executives try to stay ahead of the threat of disruption, they will most likely need to take a serious look at acquisitions that can enhance their digital capabilities.

Cross-border transactionsCompanies are under pressure to expand internationally in order to secure supply chains, increase customer reach and dominate make-or-break industries. Despite a recent increase in protectionist sentiments, cross-border deals have continued to surge in an ever-globalizing world.

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… which may breed an abundance of opportunities for skilled merger arbitrage managers.

While the imbalance between supply (sellers) and demand (merger investors) has broadened the opportunity set for merger arbitrage, transactions have grown in complexity. Economic conditions, market regimes and political policies can change quickly. Even the positive U.S. regulatory outlook could be affected by instability in Washington.

Sitting back and watching spreads converge in a portfolio of acquisition situations is a practice of the past. We believe passive merger arbitrage managers are not equipped to adapt to changes in the regulatory landscape or analyze deal-specific risk and adjust position sizes accordingly.

Investors should look for a skilled merger arbitrage manager who can:

In our view successful merger arbitrage investing requires an experienced and active team of specialists who can perform the extensive due diligence needed to analyze each potential deal. Every deal is unique, and each carries a very specific risk profile.

Actively and accurately assess deal break risk, time horizon and likelihood of completion

Construct portfolios across a range of deal types and exposures

Dynamically work into and out of positions as qualitative news events unfold

Employ a repeatable process and a time-tested risk framework

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… which may breed an abundance of opportunities for skilled merger arbitrage managers.

Experience. Team averages 23 years of industry experience, resulting in superior transaction underwriting.6

Resources. Ability to leverage insights and skill sets of 60+ investment profes-sionals across O’Connor, including Long/Short Equity specialists and the Credit team.6 This collaborative framework enhances trade expression.

Industry-leading, consistent risk management framework. Rigorous and dynamic deal grading allows for appropri-ate exposure to transactions with differing risk levels.

UBS O’Connor LLC (O’Connor) is a single-manager hedge fund manager with dedicated teams running a broad range of strategies. O’Connor has managed a Merger Arbitrage strategy since the launch of the flagship multi-strategy fund in 2000, and has demonstrated the ability to successfully navigate various market environments, including the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. The current Merger Arbitrage team has managed the strategy since 2005 (launching a standalone merger arbitrage fund in 2015) and oversees a total of USD 1.9 billion across various funds for the firm.5

The team has the following competitive advantages when compared to their peers:

Joe NewellHead of Merger Arbitrage • Has managed the Merger Arbitrage

strategy at O’Connor since 2005• 20 years with UBS/O’Connor • Trader on the floor of the Chicago

Board of Options• BS in Business Administration from

the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley

Blake HiltabrandHead of Merger Arbitrage Research and Senior Portfolio Manager• 10 years with O’Connor• Previously, Assistant Portfolio Manager

at Deephaven Capital and Amaranth Advisors

• Senior Analyst at Goldman Sachs focused on event-driven research

• BA in Economics from Wake Forest University

• CFA Charterholder

Gurpreet OttalPortfolio Manager• Portfolio Manager for the Merger

Arbitrage strategy at O’Connor since 2015

• Previously, Portfolio Manager of a global event-driven strategy at TT International

• CR Intrinsic, focusing on European and US event-driven situations

• Lehman Brothers in the Global Trading Strategies group

• MA in Economics from Cambridge University

5 Source: UBS O‘Connor. As of 1 May 2017.6 Source: UBS O‘Connor. As of 1 March 2017.

O’Connor’s robust Merger Arbitrage team

Where to turn?

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Merger arbitrage is an event-driven hedge fund strategy that seeks to benefit from a corporate merger or acquisition by taking a long position in the target company while often selling short the acquiring company. The goal is to capture the price differential (“spread”) between a deal’s announced price and the pre-closing price of the target stock. Essentially, merger arbitrage invests in the likelihood of a deal successfully closing.

Hedge against equity risk. The financial crisis of 2008-09 saw equity markets plunge. The S&P 500 Index dropped 56.8% from its peak in October of 2007 to its trough in March of 2009. Conversely, the HFRX ED: Merger Arbitrage Index was up 1.97% during that period.7 Merger arbitrage was able to generate returns that were uncorrelated to equity market performance while also helping to protect capital during the decline.

While many event-driven strategies invest in ‘softer’ event catalysts, such as a management change, subsidiary spin-offs or rumors of acquisitions, the Merger Arbitrage strategy at O’Connor focuses on announced transactions and publicly disclosed negotiations, considered much ‘harder’ catalysts. We have high convic-tion in merger arbitrage strategies over typical event-driven funds, particularly given today’s merger environment.

As Figure 5 illustrates, merger arbitrage strategies have fared well even during market downturns.

Diversify within traditional and alternative portfolios. An allocation to merger arbitrage can help investors diversify their return sources while also managing risk. Merger arbitrage offers diversification even within a portfolio of alternative investments, because returns

Beyond today’s opportunities, we believe merger arbitrage has the potential to produce attractive risk-adjusted returns combined with loss limitation across market cycles. It can be a valuable allocation in a portfolio, offering investors potential protection from both market volatility and interest rate risk.

are dependent on specific deals rather than on broad market events.

Perform in a rising interest rate environment. After decades of per-sistently low interest rates, we appear to be entering a period of gradually rising rates. During the last two rising rate periods, merger arbitrage strategies outperformed bonds, as evidenced in Figure 6 below.

How a merger arbitrage allocation can benefit a portfolio

Potential portfolio benefits throughout various market scenarios

Figure 5: Merger Arbitrage versus equity markets: helps protect while participating

Figure 6: Merger Arbitrage historically outperforms bonds in periods of rising rates

7 Source: Bloomberg, CBOE. The HFRX ED: Merger Arbitrage Index is quoted in this instance due to the fact that daily return values are measured.

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We believe UBS O’Connor’s Merger Arbitrage team is uniquely positioned and resourced to take advantage of heightened M&A activity in an economy that continues to strengthen. As M&A players anxiously await the deployment of capital into the market, the supply/ demand mismatch will eventually force private equity into the game. In the meantime, as seasoned experts, O’Connor can navigate complex transactions and regulatory shifts in a constantly evolving environment.

“We believe that modest global GDP expectations will fuel a strong M&A market in 2017 as market participants continue to look to expand via acquisition. Low cost of capital, an improving regulatory backdrop, modest organic growth, and continued globalization will be supportive to strategic transactions. The beneficial environment for strategic deal activity coupled with the “dry powder” in the private equity market should lead to continued robust deal activity in 2017 and beyond.”

Joe Newell Head of Merger Arbitrage

at UBS O’Connor

In conclusion…

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Endnotes

S&P 500 Total Return Index is the total return version of S&P 500 index. Dividends are reinvested on a daily basis. All regular cash dividends are assumed reinvested in the S&P 500 index on the ex-date. Special cash dividends trigger a price adjustment in the price return index.

HFRX ED: Merger Arbitrage Index is an investible index that focuses on strategies that employ an investment process primarily focused on opportunities in equity and equity related instruments of companies which are currently engaged in a corporate transaction. Merger Arbitrage involves primarily announced transac-tions, typically with limited or no exposure to situations which pre-, post-date or situations in which no formal announcement is expected to occur. Opportunities are frequently presented in cross border, collared and international transac-tions which incorporate multiple geographic regulatory institutions, with typically involve minimal exposure to corporate credits. Merger Arbitrage strategies typically have over 75% of positions in announced transactions over a given market cycle.

HFRI ED: Merger Arbitrage Index represents Merger Arbitrage strategies which employ an investment process primarily focused on opportunities in equity and equity related instruments of companies which are currently engaged in a corporate transaction. Merger Arbitrage involves primarily announced transac-tions, typically with limited or no exposure to situations which pre-, post-date or situations in which no formal announcement is expected to occur. Opportunities are frequently presented in cross border, collared and international transac-tions which incorporate multiple geographic regulatory institutions, with typically involve minimal exposure to corporate credits. Merger arbitrage strategies typically have over 75% of positions in announced transactions over a given market cycle.

Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index represents securities that are SEC-registered, taxable, and dollar denominated. The index covers the U.S. investment grade fixed rate bond market, with index components for government and corporate securities, mortgage pass-through securities, and asset-backed securities. These major sectors are subdivided into more specific indices that are calculated and reported on a regular basis.

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tory body. Also, managers may not be required by law or regulation to supply investors with their portfolio holdings, pricing, or valuation information.

• Portfolio Concentration; Volatility - Many Hedge Funds may have a more concentrated or less diversified portfolio than an average mutual fund. While a more concentrated portfolio can have good results when a manager is correct, it can also cause a portfolio to have higher volatility.

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