Football Spreads

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Presentation from 11/19/2014 at Cleveland R User Group on using R to improve and track spread NFL picks throughout the season.

Transcript of Football Spreads

Spread Football AnalysisTim Hoolihantim@hoolihan.net@thoolihanWelcomeUser GroupRestroomsDoorsAny specific requests?Questions?What Is A Spread?Point DifferentialAdded to favored team to determine adjusted scoreAttempts to get 50% of betters on each side of the bet*Different than trying to be accurate. For example: large fan-base skewRule of Thumb: Home Team starts with -3

GoalsCome back from a horrible start in my leaguePet project in R that motivates learning more

TrackGoogle SpreadsheetDownload as CSVBlank copy you can edit: http://bit.ly/1xLvg64Functions For Game Types

continued

then show Picks.R to show all the permutations were calculatingLeague Trendsrmarkdownconvert to htmlDescribe.R demoHome vs AwayFavorite vs UnderdogFirst meaningful insightIt appears away favorites are a better pickWhy?

Testing The Math

TestMath.RSpread Performance By Team

credit to R Workshop (Robert Kabacoff)Teams.R (needs improvement)PlotTeams.RMy Trends

Very usefulIm doing poorly overall, buthighlight home underdogshighlight away favoritesUpcoming Games

Teams.RMy Results & Progress

Plot.RResiduals

Not terribly usefulpredicting my results going forwardsummary(bt_model) shows not significantsummary(bw_model) is mixed week not a sig factor but model is?Packagesrmarkdownscalesdplyrggplot2gridExtradplyrWorkshop exposurechaining, functionalLinq in .NetClosures (JavaScript, Ruby)Domain Specific Language - like (see Residuals.R)ggplot2Nice, but challengingqplot vs ggplotHave I Learned Anything?Yes, a lot more RLeague position improved from basement to basement stairsDont pick home underdogs

What Comes Next?Calculate Correct, other columnsClustering by spread sizeModel training (machine learning caret?)My performance vs recommendationBreak out web pages further (league, my performance, next week)Shiny?show git stashYour Turnhttps://github.com/thoolihan/FootballPicksGoogle Docs http://bit.ly/1xLvg64tim@hoolihan.netQuestions?Follow up?Topics they would like covered?