Food Security Challenges in a rapidly changing world
Transcript of Food Security Challenges in a rapidly changing world
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Food Security Challenges Food Security Challenges in a rapidly changing worldin a rapidly changing world
Colin Chartres and Aditya Sood Colin Chartres and Aditya Sood
International Water Management InstituteInternational Water Management Institute
(Acknowledgements to Jan Lundqvist, SIWI)(Acknowledgements to Jan Lundqvist, SIWI)
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Water for a food‐secure world
Contents
• Drivers of food and water scarcity• Scenarios of food and water demands• A changing planet• A global paradox and a challenge• Can we adapt and deliver food security
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Water for a food‐secure world
Demography, GDP and Water Withdrawals1900 ‐ 2000
• Population increase about 3.6 times • Water withdrawals increased 6.8 times• GDP increased 19 times , about 3% per year (constant prices, IMF)
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Water for a food‐secure world Data: CIESEN
Population hot spots
Pop increase 2000‐2010
Key increases/decreases in 1000s
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Water for a food‐secure world
Land and water availability are reducing
Land area (ha) per person Water availabilty 1000m3 per person
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Water scarcityPhysical scarcity: Water resources development approaching or exceeding sustainable limits
Economic Scarcity:Water resources can meet needs; but human, institutional and financial capital lacking to actually harness and use these resources
Source: Water for Food, Water for Life, IWMI, 2007
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Water for a food‐secure world
Drivers of Food and Water scarcity
The major drivers of water scarcity and food security are:
– Population growth (7.0 b today to 9.0 b in 2050)– Dietary change– Urbanisation– Globalisation– Biofuel production– Climate Change
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Water for a food‐secure world
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GDP per capita (2000 constant dollars per year)
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Consumption and income 1961‐2000
These trends are continuing
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Water for a food‐secure world
Specific challenges to wheat in South Asia• Wheat in developing countries most strongly affected by climate change
• 2025: USD 15‐20 billion losses pa (12–16%)
• 2050: USD 32‐48 billion losses pa (20–30%)
• 10% Yield potential loss for every C0 increase
Courtesy Dr M Banziger, CIMMYT
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Water for a food‐secure world
Issue identification: Water supply vs. demand gaps
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Water for a food‐secure world
Drivers paint a pessimistic picture
• However, population and GDP dynamics are changing
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Water for a food‐secure world
Global Water Withdrawals: historical and projected (after Peter Gleick)
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Water for a food‐secure world
Slowing down of demographic dynamics
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Water for a food‐secure world
A new economic world map
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Water for a food‐secure world
Scenarios considered• Used the Watersim Model• Three scenarios:
– Business as usual (medium pop growth, medium GDP growth)
– Optimistic (low pop growth, high GDP growth)– Pessimistic (high pop growth, low GDP growth)
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Water for a food‐secure world
Consumptive water demand (regions)2010 – 2050
BAU, Optimistic and Pessimistic
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Water for a food‐secure world
Consumptive water demand (sector)2010 – 2050
BAU, Optimistic and Pessimistic
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Water for a food‐secure world
Approx. 2000 water withdrawals
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Water for a food‐secure world
Based on WaterSim analysis for the Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture
Comprehensive Assessment Scenario: Policies for productivity gains, upgrading rainfed areas, revitalized irrigation & trade
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Water for a food‐secure world
The Global Paradox and Challenge
Feeding c.2 billion more people with
less
water for agriculture than we have now
in
an era of climate change
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Water for a food‐secure world
BAU or a Healthy, Water Saving 2050?kcal meat (daily, gram)
1. Current food supply:(average global level; FAO) 2,800 224 (OECD)
‐ 1 billion undernourished, 1.4 billion+ overweight & obese; ~ 50% of production lost & wasted; high water, environmental & financial cost
2. Projected food supply (2050) 3,130 283 (OECD)(average global)‐ increase production by 70%; undernourishment/overeating/waste?‐ augmented water, environmental & financial cost
3. International norm (supply at national level) 2,700
3. A health recommended diet scenario intake (at individual level) 2,000 90
4. Reducing losses and waste by 50% ‐ equivalent to a rise in output of 15 – 25%‐ 50% reduction of losses & waste: potential savings of 1,350 km3
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Water for a food‐secure world
CC may reduce potential yields in SSA and SA by 30% by 2030 (Lobell et al, Science, 2008)
Temperature increase may reduce yields of corn, soya beans and cotton by 30 – 46% in the US in a century(Schlenker & Roberts, PNAS, 2009)
Food production to increase by 70% by 2050 World Food Summit, Rome, November 2009. Similar: World Bank (2008), N. Borlaug (2002), etc.
Additional water required: + 5,500 km3 (FAO) from where?
Water Prudence/Saving BAU Supply chain logistics; - storage, transport & market access
Demand side issues, food intake;- Cf. definition on food security
Food waste, EU27: 179 kg/cap, year (2010)
Solutions BAU or Water prudence
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Water for a food‐secure world
What does all this mean in terms of transboundary water issues?
• SE and E Asia has both opportunities and challenges• It has some areas where water resources are scarce and other where there are opportunities for development (e.g. NE Thailand vs Laos and Cambodia)
• The Greater Mekong area has potential to further develop as a food bowl for Asia –trade is vital
• However, the nexus issues of energy demand vs irrigation demand need to be worked through in terms of win‐win solutions
• Improved transboundary understanding is vital to the food‐enegry‐environment nexus. Better data and information will be critical to decision making
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Water for a food‐secure world
Thank You