Food Security and Case of Bangladesh

Prepared by Md. Reza Ahmed Khan, Research Officer, Department of Agricultural Marketing (DAM)

Ms. Fatema Wadud, Deputy Director, SHOGORIP, DAM

1.0 Introduction After almost a decade the world faced severe food shortage in the last couple of years from 2005

onward. Though the production level was getting better result for the use of developed technology

and quality agricultural inputs along with better crop management, yet the market and marketing

mechanism showed differential pattern of success if the consideration is enough and quality food

for all. The situation get severe when around the world changes in consumption pattern, industrial

and energy use of agricultural production soaring energy cost and climatic changes spurred the

recent food crises and as the world is more open than any past the heat of the recent crises was

felt globally. The financial meltdown exaggerated the already heated food crisis and particularly the

countries depending on import of food faced the severity most. Situation of Bangladesh was no

different; substantial production volume could only absorb a portion of the recent price shock, and

long queue of even the middle class families was seen to purchase from the BDR shops spurred

during the crisis period. Even import was not possible due to protective measures of the net

exporting countries.

This paper tries to cover the issue from four levels of consideration starting with the global or

international level then diving into micro levels like national, Household and individual level and

reviewed many secondary sources of information and a simple calculation of the Self Sufficiency

Ratio (SSR) in simplest form and monetary term. The paper concludes with some significant points

to consider and suggestion for the global and national level as compiled from different sources

besides incorporating authors’ experience and studies.

1.1 The Outlook

Why do we face such a crisis when it seemed so recently that the Green Revolution of the 1960s

and 1970s had ushered in an era of food plenty? Beginning in the 1980s the world turned its back

on agricultural development. The Green Revolution technologies of new seeds, fertilizer and farm

practices resulted in dramatic yield increases for irrigated crops, especially wheat and rice, in

settings with adequate infrastructure such as market roads, largely in Asia. These breakthroughs

created the false impression that the world’s food and farming problems had mostly been solved,

when in fact the Green Revolution had bypassed much of Africa and the dry-lands of South Asia.

As a result, international support and developing country investments in agriculture declined

sharply in the 1980s and the 1990s. Between 1980 and 2005, for instance, foreign aid to low

income countries for agricultural development dropped from 17% of overall aid to 3%. By the

1990s, growth rates of global public expenditure on agricultural research had been halved. The

rising global demand for food due to population growth and changing diets (producing one pound

of beef takes three pounds of grain) has outstripped the growth in the production of staple food

crops. Per capita production of maize in Africa, for instance, has actually fallen 14% since 1980.

The projected increase of Africa’s population by 2050 means that African agricultural production

would need to double just to keep the number of hungry people at today’s level.

A year ago, a tonne of Thai Grade B rice sold for $325 (£164); last week, the rate was $960 and

climbing. Rice farming has become three times more lucrative, and rice farmers are galloping to

cash in. Fields that have lain fallow are being ploughed and planted; in wet and fertile central

Thailand, where farmers are contemplating three or even four harvests a year, beyond the usual

one or two.

As prices have risen, there

have been riots and

protests in 33 countries,

from Haiti to the

Philippines. To keep rice

affordable in local

markets, big producers

such as Vietnam and India

have restricted exports —

further driving up the

international price. In

Thailand, the world’s

biggest exporter, the result

has been a rice bonanza.

The World Food Summit (WFS) goal of halving the number of undernourished people in the world

by 2015 is becoming more difficult to reach for many countries. FAO’s most recent estimates put

the number of hungry people at 923 million in 2007, an increase of more than 80 million since the

1990–92 base period. Long-term estimates (available up to 2003–05) show that some countries

were well on track towards reaching the WFS and Millennium Development Goal (MDG) targets

before the period of high food prices; however, even these countries may have suffered setbacks.

The most rapid increase in chronic hunger experienced in recent years occurred between 2003–05

and 2007. From the inflationary pressure and the increasing tendency of food price lasted till the

beginning of 2009 due to the emergence of the financial crisis. In between 2007 and 2009, the

transitory oil price hike during the 2008 produced another inflationary shock. FAO’s provisional

estimates show that, in 2007, 75 million more people were added to the total number of

undernourished relative to 2003–05. While several factors are responsible, high food prices are

driving millions of people into food insecurity, worsening conditions for many who were already

food-insecure, and threatening long-tem global food security.

Several countries, particularly whose economy and consumption base significantly depends on

import faced the severity more as the global crisis channeled more in to the national economies of

those countries. Despite the recent downturns, structural causes still exists, like the extensive use

of food crops for bio fuel and other use, over inclination towards cereal crops overlooking other

needed crops and animal protein.

In 2007, catastrophic flooding wiped out anywhere from 10 to 25 percent of North Korea’s staple

corn and rice crops. Half of Pakistan’s 160 million people now face food insecurity, with the number

of people suffering from food insecurity rising 28 percent during the past year. As average food

prices have risen 35 percent in the last year, workers have seen only an 18 percent rise in the

minimum wage, prompting government officials to deploy troops to protect food stores and to

reinstate a food rationing program for the first time in 20 years. In January, thousands took to the

streets to protest soybean prices, resulting in a cut in soybean import taxes. Protests erupted again

in March when the media reported that a pregnant mother had starved to death. And in April,

students led protests against skyrocketing commodity prices, wearing strips of black tape over their

mouths to signify their inability to afford food. The post WTO practice regarding agricultural trade

distorts the food market decreasing trend in the nominal rate of assistance of on agricultural and

increasing trend of non agriculture assistance give rise to imbalance in market mechanism.

Generically, the food crisis can be traced to the following factors depending on the level of

consideration as coined by many research and practical experience.

1.2 Levels and Factors of Food Security

The food security issue can be seen from four levels (though three levels are generally considered)

and the following table outlines the relevant factors at different level of consideration-

Level of Consideration Factors effecting the food security condition

Global Consolidation effects of global commons- When net exporting countries face the same

problem they turns out to be reluctant to export further severing condition of the net

importing countries;

Levels of Global Cooperation- We are yet to develop global food banks and rationalize

regional food banks' operation and performance.

Climatic changes- World wide heat and cold waves are reducing agricultural

productivity

Factor market condition-Oil price has high correlation with the increase in fertilizer and

transport cost

National Natural Calamity- Global phenomena has its local effects, like increased number of

tornadoes, hurricane, tidal waves, untimely floods and droughts etc.

Vulnerability to climatic changes- readiness and coping capability varies among

countries and some are naturally and operationally vulnerable to natural disaster like

the countries on downstream of any river system

Poverty Level- Poverty level has direct linkage with food security and nutrition

Openness of the economy- Particularly, the post WTO regime and capacity of own

production define the level of transfer of global impacts at local level

Dependence on import for food demand-The net importing countries were hit most

Production Strength- May cushion the global price shock

Buffer Stock- Defines price volatility

Governance and Accountability (hampering the targeted safety nets and price

stabilization)- How far the interventions become effective and efficient.

Household Income level/purchasing capacity- Directly defines the consumption pattern and level

Location (disaster proneness, remoteness/access to the market, etc.)-Increase severity

Utilization (education, awareness, cultural practice, etc.)- Defines coping strategies and

robustness in facing the shocks

Access to asset- Helps to sustain the hard times and in quick recovery

Individual Disability (gender, age, seniors, and physically challenged)-most vulnerable are the

female, children, and the elders

Employment/economic activity- defines vulnerability as it may effect cyclically,

Access to asset- Helps to sustain the hard times and in quick recovery

Decision Making- Helps in reducing deviations between male-female

Nutrition deficiency-Cyclically effect the working capacity of the subject thus making

them prone to any shock and hard to recover

Among the above mentioned factors some are transactional in the sense that they are as well

symptoms of food insecurity and risk like the Nutrition deficiency that reduce the working capacity

of any individual thus further reducing income.

1.3 International Food Crisis International prices of basic food commodities

have increased rapidly over the last three

years. The FAO food price index rose by 9

percent in 2006 and by 23 percent in 2007.

As of March 2008, wheat prices were 130

percent above their level a year earlier, rice

prices were 66 percent higher, and maize

prices were 38 percent higher.

Developing countries, where already more

than 800 million people are suffering from

hunger, have been particularly hard hit by soaring food prices. The situation is also threatening

peace and stability around the world as food riots and civil unrest spread in many countries. This

situation requires concerted international action. United States faced the sharpest increase in

cereal prices. During 2008, the prices of rice, wheat, soy and corn rose by 135, 116, 93 and 41

percent respectively. Supply and demand shocks caused the inflationary pressures for food prices.

Five reasons explain the increase in food

prices. First, world cereal production fell by 3.6

percent in 2005 and 6.9 percent in 2006 due to

bad weather in major producing countries.

Second, stock levels are very low, which

magnifies the impact of production shortfalls as

markets worry about the lack of a buffer. The

ratio of world cereal ending stocks in 2007/08

to the trend in world cereal utilization is

estimated at 18.7 percent, the lowest in three

decades. Third, petroleum prices and food prices are highly correlated, with an estimated

correlation coefficient of more than 0.6. The rapid rise in petroleum prices exerted an upwards

pressure on food prices as fertilizer prices nearly tripled and transport costs doubled over a two-

year period. Fourth, increased demand from the biofuels sector also tended to push prices

upwards. It is estimated that about 100 million tonnes of grain (some 4.7 percent of global cereal

production) are being used for biofuels in 2007/8. In 2007/8, the United States alone is expected to

use about 80 million tonnes of maize to produce ethanol, a 37 percent increase over the previous

year.

Fifth, economic growth in some large

developing countries is leading to

changes in diet and increased demand

for food crops. Over the last 15 years,

meat consumption more than doubled

in China and grew by 70 percent in

Brazil and 20 percent in India. Since it

takes some 7 kg of cereals to produce

1 kg of meat, this shift in diet is also

leading to higher cereal prices.

Prices remain high today although world cereal

production recovered, increasing by 4.7 percent

in 2007 and 2.6 percent in 2008 (projected).

Available medium-term projections by the

International Food Policy Research Institute

(IFPRI) and by OECD/FAO indicate that food

prices will remain above their previous trend

level for the foreseeable future.

Prices of food commodities for the next 10 years

are likely to be higher than during the previous 10

years, even though a small decline is expected in

2009 or 2010. Those projections are explained by

three factors. First, it is believed that the demand

for biofuels will continue to rise rapidly. According

to the International Energy Agency (IEA) the share

of the world’s arable land devoted to the growing of

biomass for liquid biofuels could triple over the next

20 years. Second, developing country economic

growth is expected to continue at about 6 percent a

year with significant implications for food demand.

Third, climate-change risks are likely to have adverse

impacts on food production, compounding the

challenge of meeting global food demand. Fourth,

some of the recent increases in commodity prices are just the recovery from low prices in the past.

Low prices in the first years of this decade discouraged farmers from planting, and this negative

feedback on production has contributed to higher prices at present. Indeed, commodity prices in

2006/07, after adjusting for inflation, were still lower than they were during the previous peak in

1995/96 for most commodities (see Figure 11). In turn, the relatively high prices of the past few

years have contributed to higher cereal production; FAO (2007c) estimated that world production of

coarse grains and rice both hit record highs in 2007, although wheat production remained below

the levels in 2004 and 2005.

The summary findings of the factors behind the present food crises are-

Drought and other climate-related problems that resulted in smaller harvests

Changing diets — rise of the middle class in India and China and an increased demand for

food, especially meat, which requires large amounts of grain to raise

Diversion of crops from food production to the production of biofuels

High fuel prices during 2008 — if it costs more to transport food, prices go up

Declining investments in agricultural productivity — total agriculture development aid to

poor countries plunged from $8 billion in 1984 to $3.4 billion in 2004. At the same time, the

developing world's cities have been ballooning with people who do not grow any of their

food

Export bans and restrictions last year in several major grain-producing countries like China

as governments sought to lower food prices for their own citizens, with the result of

reducing the global supply on hand.

In general the food security issue

can be seen from the provided food

crises map by FAO. In each

country, the main staples were

chosen based on their importance

in the share of total food

expenditure as follows: Albania

(wheat, maize and rice);

Bangladesh (rice, wheat and

pulses); Ghana (maize and rice);

Guatemala (maize, wheat and

beans); Malawi and Nicaragua (maize, rice and beans); Pakistan and Tajikistan (wheat, rice and

beans); and Viet Nam (rice, maize and beans).

2.0 Bangladesh and Food Security

2.1 Background of the Agricultural State of the country

As an agrarian country with limited land resources targeted initiatives has contributed significantly

in the supply side at the national level halving the food consumption poverty line from around 70%

in 70s. Yet 60 mill hungry people is a global case; third in line after China and India.

Agriculture is the single largest producing sector of the economy and it contributes about 22% [1]

to the total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the country. This sector also accommodates around

48.1% [1] of labour force. As per Agriculture Census, 2008, the total number of agriculture farm

households is 14.72 million which accounts for 51.33% of the total households. Data available from

Agriculture Censuses conducted in 1983-84, 1996 and 2008 reveal that though the absolute

number of farm households in rural areas is gradually increasing, yet the percent (as percent of

total rural households) of

agriculture farm households is

gradually decreasing reflecting

switching tendencies of rural

population to non farm activities

and in the coming future

agriculturally active land (AAL) will

be facing decreasing growth trend.

Yet GDP growth rate of

Bangladesh mainly depends on

the performance of the Agriculture

sector. Although due to natural

calamities like flood, loss of

production of food and cash crops

are almost regular phenomenon, in

recent years, there has been

substantial increase in food grain

production. Agricultural holding in

Bangladesh are generally small but use of modern machinery is gradually increasing. 1Sixty

percent of the farm holdings owned agricultural equipments which include power tiller, tractor,

1 Preliminary Report On Agriculture Sample Survey 2005, BBS

[1] 2007 Statistical Yearbook of Bangladesh, BBS

spray machine, power pump, deep tube well, shallow tube well etc. Nearly 30% of the farms

reported to have owned transport to carry passenger and agricultural or other goods. These

transports include all types of mechanized and non-mechanized vans, boats, carts, etc.

Rice, Jute, Sugarcane, Potato, Pulses, Wheat, Tea and Tobacco are the principal crops though

maize is also gaining popularity in recent days. Crop diversification program, credit, extension and

research and input distribution policies pursued by the government are yielding positive result. The

country is now on the threshold of attaining self-sufficiency in food grain production thus solving for

the availability problem of food crises. Yet the demand side lags behind and the system constraints

like poverty and gender inequality crash down the severity further.

2.1.1 Current Condition of Food Security in Brief

Bangladesh has increased its food grain production over the past 28 years, from 11.8

million metric tons in 1974 to more than 39 million metric tons in 2003

30% of the population consumes fewer than 1800 kcal per day.

45% of women have low body mass index (less than 18.5)

Bangladesh has been hit by a doubling in the price of the main staple, rice, in the past

years and many low paid workers say that they have been forced to have only one meal a

day.

About 20,000 garment workers rioted near the capital city Dhaka for higher wages for

increased food prices.

In terms of loss in income, the results show that the poorest households are hardest hit by

rising food prices in both urban and rural areas. Across all income groups, landless

households are on average worse affected by high food prices. In Bangladesh, where land

distribution is not as equitable and rural households have more limited access to land, the

impact of rating food prices is negative for most households.

FAO's empirical analysis shows that overall, female-headed households suffer more from

rising food prices in terms of declining food consumption, and tend to benefit less from

staple food crop production.

Women and children are particularly vulnerable to the nutritional effects of high food prices,

as they are more likely to suffer form micronutrients deficiencies when driven to

consumables diversified daily diets.

According to the FAO Bangladesh has severe localized food insecurity, although food grain is

more available in good harvest years. Bangladesh as a whole still has a very low level of nutrition

that means many households and individuals do not eat enough, balanced, nutritious diet, even in

good years.

According to the World Bank, approximately 33 million of the 150 million people in Bangladesh

cannot afford an average daily intake of more than 1800 kilocalories (the minimum standard for

nutrition as set by the World Food Program). For people in most developing countries, the daily

calorie average is 2,828. In Bangladesh, that average is only 2,190.

2.2 National Situation

2.2.1 Availability:

Availability of food depends on production, import and

food aid. Though Bangladesh is on the threshold of

achieving self sufficiency in food production yet world

wide trend in food aid is decreasing. We have

calculated SSR in monetary terms and found that for

rice and wheat combined the ratio is 99.13 and 99.29

for year 2006 and 2007 respectively. Yet when the

price was increased in the international market

enough volume for import was also scant. The study

conducted by PPRC in 2007 showed the following gap exists in between productive capacity and

local demand.

2.2.2 Demand supply Balance of Selected Essentials:

Item 2006-07 Aggregate production*

Aggregate Consumption Demand**

Demand-Supply Balance

Foodgrain 213.75 235.83 -22.08

potato 52.77 25.56 +27.21

Lentil 1.31 6.17 -486

Spices 16.96 25.73 -8.77

Onion 9.00 13.46 -4.46

All Vegetables 93.06 134.78 -41.72

Brinjal 13.01 9.37 +3.64

Potol 1.22 6.64 -2.42

Pumpkin 2.16 8.18 -6.02

Karala 1.05 6.99 -5.94

Okra 1.46 7.84 -6.38

Tomato 5.80 2.21 +3.59

Lal shak 2.32 14.83 -12.51

Pui shak 2.27 9.54 -7.27

* DAE Statistics; ** Based on PPRC April, 2007 Consumption data and inclusive of 10% markup to

accommodate non-household and unforeseen demand

2.2.3 Other factors Affecting Availability

1) Food distribution program:

The main objective of the public Distribution System is to stabilize the market price of food grains

through ensuring targeted distribution. More than 80 percent of the food grains under the public

Food Distribution System (PFDS) are distributed through targeted distribution programmers.

2) Stocks and domestic procurement:

Each year the Government procures rice and wheat from the domestic markets to sustain the

public stock of the food grains and to provide price support to the producers. Bangladesh, in

general, intends to maintain a food stock of one million MT. The average stocks had been about a

million tons or more of food grains between 1998-99 and 2001-02. After that, however, it fell to

slightly more than 700.000 metric tons. It fell below 700.000 metric tons in 2006-07. During 2007-

08 for the first nine months up to March 2008, average stocks rose again above 700.000 metric

tons. During the current season 50,000 metric tons of wheat and 1.2 to 1.5 million MT boro rice

(winter rice) are expected to be procured.

3) Food imports:

The Government encourages imports of rice and wheat into the country to increase supply of food

grains in the domestic market to reduce rising prices. Normally, Bangladesh meets about 7-8

percent of food grain needs from imports. Unfortunately even this level of import could not be made

because of falling stocks in major rice exporting countries as well as fast rising prices. Still

Bangladesh has imported around. 1.9 million tons of rice from July 2007 to April 2008. The import

figure for the previous year was only 0.72 million metric tons. Imports of wheat a mounted to 1.3

million tons so far in 2007-08 while that in the previous year it was 1.7 million tons.

2.2.4 Price Trend

Prices have been rising in Bangladesh over time particularly during the last few years. In 2000-01,

the year to year annual inflation rate based on consumer price index (base year 1995/96=100) has

been only 1.9 percent. Since then the inflation rate is steadily rose to 7.2 percent by 2003-04. Food

prices began to rise much faster compared to non-food prices (Economic Survey, 2007).

As rice dominantly constitutes the food basket of our population, price of rice influence the other

commodity prices. During 1995-96 to 2003-04, the average annual wholesale price of coarse rice

remained stable at around Tk. 1200 per quintal. Since then it began to rise sharply. The annual

average price was Tk 1474 in 2004-05, Tk 1580 in 2005-06 and Tk 1700 in 2006-07. During 2007-

08 the monthly price rose steadily from Tk 1994 in July 2007 to Tk 3095 per quintal in September

2008. The average monthly wholesale price of wheat moved in a similar fashion from Tk 1495 in

July 2007 to Tk 3075 per quintal in September 2008. This was three tomes the average annual

price of wheat in 2004 which was Tk 1017 per quintal. (1 USS= Tk 70.00)

All these price variations reflect partly the depleting stocks of food and the rising prices since 2004-

05. Other food prices particularly those of edible oil, milk and sugar as well as pulses which are

largely imported had increased several folds. The following tables show the price trend of major

staples; rice and wheat and some essentials like Potato, Sugar, and edible oil (Soybean) in

Bangladesh.

The following tables show that rice price increased significantly in 2007 and 2008 later decreased

in 2009 yet higher than the price level in 2007.

National Average (Month wise) Price of Coarse Rice

Month 2006 2007 2008 2009

Wholesale Retail Wholesale Retail Wholesale Retail Wholesale Retail

January 1536 16.3 1647 17.6 2757 28.9 2294 24.4

February 1576 16.7 1714 18.2 2771 29.0 2172 23.2

March 1589 16.8 1735 20.4 1923 30.6 2013 21.6

April 1594 16.9 1917 20.3 3182 33.2 1814 19.6

May 1590 16.8 1858 19.8 2836 29.7 1883 20.4

June 1540 16.4 1830 19.4 2888 30.2 1793 19.5

July 1561 16.6 1871 19.8 3121 32.6

August 1583 17.0 2014 21.3 3076 32.2

September 1587 16.6 2104 21.7 2990 31.3

October 1602 17.1 2124 22.3 2923 30.7

November 1623 17.3 2187 23.2 2665 28.2

December 1593 17.3 2326 24.8 2460 26.1

National Yearly Average 1581 17 1944 21 2799 30 1995 21 Variation With Previous period - - 22.96 23.53 43.98 42.86 -28.72 -30.00 Data Source: Department of Agricultural Marketing (DAM)

Wheat price followed the lead from rice price increase and the wheat price is increased around

45% both for wholesale and retail price types in 2007 later it increased in lower rate around 30% in

2008. Though 2009 started with price decrease yet the level is higher than the price level of 2006

National Average Retail Price of Coarse Rice

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National Average (Month wise) Price of Wheat

Month 2006 2007 2008 2009

Wholesale Retail Wholesale Retail Wholesale Retail Wholesale Retail

January 1414 14.9 1848 19.4 3017 31.3 2096 23.1

February 1407 15.0 2144 19.8 3088 32.1 2123 22.7

March 1377 14.7 1880 19.7 3028 33.2 1684 18.8

April 1420 15.0 1867 20.1 2923 31.1 1472 16.5

May 1457 15.3 1856 20.1 2918 31.1 1486 16.2

June 1466 15.6 1892 20.4 2902 30.7 1508 16.5

July 1484 15.6 2021 21.8 2969 31.3

August 1496 16.0 2328 24.5 2971 31.2

September 1551 15.6 2372 25.2 2900 30.5

October 1577 17.0 2582 26.9 2847 29.8

November 1517 18.0 2706 29.4 2644 28.0

December 1800 19.3 2781 30.3 2287 24.5

National Yearly Average 1497 16 2190 23 2875 30 1728 19 Variation With Previous period - - 46.29 43.75 31.28 30.43 -39.90 -36.67

2.2.4.1 Comparative Graphs

First of all wholesale and retail price trend show similar pattern when considered over the years on

month by month basis. Though rice price has a decreasing trend after 2009 the difference with

Average Wholesale Price of Potatoe (Holland White)

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2006 price level is still high for both the wholesale and retail price level. But wheat price has

reached close to the level of 2006.

Potato price showed an increasing trend from 2006 until 2007 and in 2008 it started with to go

down and even it did go below the 2006 level of price. But in 2009 though it started to go down at

the starting months yet from March onward it started to increase again and presently it is above all

the previous years. Both the wholesale and retail price trend shows similarity in pattern and has the

tendency to grow more in the coming futures.

Sugar price is increasing from 2007 and it is still in that cycle of growth. Present price situation is

higher that the previous years though 2009 started with from a down level.

Wholesale price of Soybean oil increased tremendously in 2008 from 2007 yet in 2009 the price

started to decline again

2.2.5 Food consumption expenditure

Globally, higher trend is

seen for Food Related

Consumer Price Index and

Consumer price Index.

Likewise, the consumer

price index in Bangladesh

for food is higher than the

general price index as can

be seen from the following

table and graph. The surprising fact is the higher rate of CPI (Food) for the urban areas. The other

point is that though the price of food crops has been decreasing it is yet to be reflected in the CPI

as can be seen from the following table, particularly of the year 2009 but it is showing a stable

trend.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) And Inflation Rate (Point To Point) ( 1995-96 = 100)

CPI Classification 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08

2009

Feb Mar April

NATIONAL

General index 153.23 164.21 176.06 193.54 204.02 204.65 204.99

Inflation 6.48 7.17 7.22 9.93 5.81 5.04 5.36

Food index 158.08 170.34 184.18 206.79 217.88 217.95 217.68

Inflation 7.91 7.76 8.12 12.28 6.15 4.49 4.80

Nonfood 147.14 156.56 165.79 176.26 186.11 187.58 189.00

Inflation 4.33 6.40 5.90 6.32 5.33 6.11 6.53

ALL RURAL

General index 154.03 165.37 177.42 195.14 206.03 206.35 206.29

Inflation 6.62 7.36 7.30 9.99 6.11 5.06 5.21

Food index 156.82 168.77 182.18 203.93 214.90 214.66 213.63

Inflation 7.99 7.62 7.96 11.94 6.28 4.33 4.32

Nonfood 149.29 159.59 169.33 180.19 190.94 192.23 193.81

Inflation 4.27 6.90 6.10 6.41 5.79 6.46 6.92

ALL URBAN

General index 151.29 161.39 172.73 189.65 199.14 200.51 201.82

Inflation 6.14 6.68 7.03 9.80 5.08 5.00 5.72

Food index 161.14 174.18 189.06 213.73 225.15 225.95 227.55

Inflation 7.71 8.09 8.54 13.05 5.87 4.86 5.91

Nonfood 141.90 149.20 157.17 166.69 174.34 176.27 177.30

Inflation 4.49 5.14 5.34 6.06 4.12 5.19 5.50

CPI (Food) Trend

100

150

200

250

300

Mar April May

2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2009

Year/Month

Ind

ex

CPI National (Food)

CPI Urban (Food)

CPI Rural Food)

CPI General National

CPI Trend 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08

2009

Mar April May

CPI National (Food) 170.34 184.18 206.79 217.95 217.68 218.65

CPI Urban (Food) 174.18 189.06 213.73 225.95 227.55 228.63

CPI Rural Food) 168.77 182.18 203.93 214.66 213.63 214.55

CPI General National 164.21 176.06 193.54 204.65 204.99 205.78

2.2.6 Problem is localized

The localized problem of food

insecurity is closely related with the

localized poverty level and market

linkage situation of the country which

is evident by the following poverty

maps of Bangladesh updated by the

FAO and BBS.

It is not surprising to see that the

poorest areas are also prone to

natural disaster. Moreover, as the

country is heavily dependent on

agriculture; agricultural wage rate

also coincide with the poverty levels

and has direct link with road

infrastructure that can also be seen

from the other maps as follows-

The regions in the three corners of

the country, specially the north-west,

south-west, and south-east corners of

the country have weak road

infrastructure and as well higher

incidence of poverty.

2.2.7 Measurement Biasness

The other dimension of the

problem not much discussed

about is the biasness of

measurement as it considers

mainly the cereals leaving out

the minimum levels and

requirements of vitamins and minerals that do not contribute towards calories intake yet is crucial

for nutritional security of the population. The high consumption of cereals (almost 80% of Dietary

Energy Supply of Bangladeshis still comes from cereals) but low intake of pulses and other animal

based proteins results in a high level of anemia and other micro nutrient deficiencies. The other

biasness can be traced to FAO recommendation of 504 gms whereas the GOB assumes 452 gms.

2.2.8 Decreasing Interest in agriculture

As can be seen from the first graph that world wide the

average farm size is getting smaller. It is evident that

the farm household (0.05 acre minimum) is in the

decreasing trend among the total HH in all the

divisions of Bangladesh. On the other hand proportion

of agricultural labor household though also decreasing

except Rajshahi division where the main Monga and

draught region of the country situated and in

Chittagong where new areas are being brought under

cultivation has seen an increase of rural agriculture

labor households.

2.3 House Hold (HH) Level: 2.3.1 HH’s Generic Coping Behavior:

The following flow chart shows the common coping strategy of the HH regarding food security

issues. the chart though is a generic form but ahs strong relevance to Bangladesh with an

additional arrows for showing

the cyclical tendency of poverty

and incapacity particularly for

the very poor. The ultimate

result of any sudden rise in food

price can be seen from the

following flow diagram with an

addition of the black arrows

reflecting the midterm effect

of the short term coping

behavior that gradually may

reduce the ability to work

more and the health cost

may increase too. Although there is no study found particularly for this area yet from observation

and experience it is known that as micro credit schemes are available many HH take loans to cope

up with this type of situation. Unfortunately, if the HH face any further crises or natural disaster their

condition become even more critical. And if this cycles continues for too long the subject may face

chronic malnourishment.

2.3.2 Rural Vs Urban The second last level of food security issue is dependent on the HH level capacity and accessibility

to resource. And it is clear that the HH in the rural areas are more prone to any sudden shock due

to their limited scope of coping strategy. On the other hand the extreme poor are most vulnerable

to recover from any such shock and may get into cyclical trend of poverty and nutrition deficiency.

Note: 1: Though total

expenditure has increased

but the consumption

expenditure is decreased

and yet the share of food

expenditure to total

consumption expenditure

is decreased from 54.6%

in 2000 to 53.8% in 2005

Note: 2: Cereal and

pulse consumption the

basic ingredients in our

food basket is reduced

both in the urban and

rural areas reflecting the

changing consumption

pattern towards more

value added produces

than grains only. Say for

example, meat

consumption is

increased in both

regions that calls for

increased pressure on

the production capacity

as a study found that 7 kg of grain is required to produce 1 kg of meat if compared.

Note: 3: The indicated row reflects that the income increase cannot compensate for the price

increase of food that ultimately reduced the calorie intake particularly in rural areas and at the

national level reflecting skewed change in rural areas.

Note: 3

Note: 1

Note: 2

There is a wide gap in basic socio economic status between rural and urban Households as can be

seen from the following table. The differential condition put more hassle on the part of the rural

household when coping with any adverse effect from sudden price shock or natural disaster.

Household socio-demography and socio-economic status, CMNS 2005

Rural Urban National

Mean household size (persons) 5.8 5.7 5.8

Household (HH) size (%)

<4 persons 8.0 9.5 8.3

4 - 5 persons 42.1 45.3 42.8

6 - 7 persons 27.9 27.0 27.8

8 + persons 22.0 18.1 21.2

Mean monthly HH income (Taka) 5,905 9,687 6,688

Sex of HH head (%) Female 4.5 4.9 4.6

Male 95.5 95.1 95.4

Educational status of head of HH (%)

Illiterate/never attended school 61.0 41.0 56.9

Passed class I-V 18.1 17.8 18.0

Passed class VI-IX 12.0 18.5 13.3

Passed SSC/HSC & above 10.0 22.7 11.8

Main occupation of HH head (%)

Business 14.8 27.5 17.3

Service and professional 27.8 49.3 32.1

Agriculture, animal husbandry, forestry, 47.3 12.5 40.3

fisheries Other 10.3 10.8 10.3

Roof materials of living room of the HH head (%)

Concrete 1.8 14.2 4.3

Corrugated iron 85.1 81.7 84.5

Others 13.0 4.1 11.2

Wall materials of living room of the HH head (%)

Brick 9.2 39.7 15.4

Tin 35.3 31.3 34.5

Others 55.5 28.9 50.1

Floor materials of living room of the HH head (%)

Concrete 6.7 43.1 14.1

Earth 91.3 55.5 84.1

Others 2.0 1.4 1.9

Main source of light (%)

Electricity 30.1 78.1 39.8

Kerosene 69.7 21.8 60.1

Solar Power 0.1 0.1 0.1

2.3.3 Limited Food for the Very Poor Poverty is the major factor effecting food security in Bangladesh. Despite the impressive increases

in food grain, around half of Bangladeshis remain below the established food based poverty line.

And, as many as one third are living in extreme poverty and severely undernourished. Recent food

price increases, regular natural disasters, and strains on the global economic market have caused

additional destabilization. The very poor in

Bangladesh simply do not have enough

money for food, much less enough to eat

nutritiously. 49% of Bangladeshis fall

below the poverty line and 42% of the

total population survives on less than a

dollar a day. Bangladesh is a disaster

prone area subject to flooding, mud

slides, and cyclones. As much as 50% of

the population lives in these disaster

prone areas, which further complicates their already vulnerable situation. During natural disasters,

families often lose what few possessions they may own. The above chart shows that the poorest

20% of the population were hit the most in shown countries though the case of Peru and Vietnam

worth further probing.

Household food security, CMNS 2005

Rural Urban National

Daily per capita consumption (kcal) 2,090 2,025 2,077

Homestead vegetable garden (%) 52.2 28.4 47.2

What do you do with the vegetable grown in your homestead (%)

Consume by members of household 84.1 93.1 85.3

Consumed and sold 15.5 6.9 14.4

Taken loan to buy food during the last three months (%) 27.2 19.7 25.6

Household salt is iodized (%) 80.2 93.5 83.0

2.4 Individual Level: 2.4.1 Gender, Age and Disability

The last level of food security issue can be seen from individual’s point where Female, Children

and Senior Citizens are the most vulnerable along with

the physically and mentally challenged people. As can

be seen from the adjacent graph that even among

other countries the female headed HH are hit harder

of rising food price and the female headed households

in the rural areas are comparatively faced the most

pressure. In reality, mortality rate is found to be high

among female and children, though there are around

27 food security and social safety net programs in the

country 50% of the eligible senior citizens are not covered under pension scheme (SSNP). The

poor female headed households are the most affected of any price increase of the staple food

though a few net producing households may get benefit in short run. A study recently been

conducted on the same issue in two districts of Bangladesh reveals that female are more

vulnerable than the male counterparts on many parameter that can be seen from the tables

provided below-

Table- Responses of the Problem of Food Insecurity

Response* Mymensingh and Netrokona

Mymensingh Netrokona

Work more 38.9 38.3 39.9

Give children to work 3.8 2.6 5.8

Loan 84.4 82.8 87.0

Go to town to work 21.9 21.1 23.2

Send children to relatives 1.4 0.4 2.9

Others 13.2 9.7 18.8

Nothing 1.9 3.1

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 Source: BIDS-FISS, 2008

* Multiple responses were allowed

The above table shows the coping strategy of the poor HH when faced by food crises and it can be

seen that loan taking is by far the most taken path whereas working more and migration to town

centers is the other significant strategy.

Table- Internal Migration among FS and FIS households in Mymensingh and Netrokona

(Per cent)

District Food insecure Food secure All

Yes No All Yes No All Yes No All

Mymensingh 45.3 54.7 100 26.6 73.4 100 37.0 63.0 100

Netrokona 39.7 60.3 100 23.8 76.2 100 32.6 67.4 100

Mymensingh & Netrokona 41.8 58.2 100 24.5 75.5 100 34.3 65.7 100 Source: BIDS-FISS, 2008

The above table shows the pattern of migration among the households whether the migration is

internal or external and in overall internal migration is lower than 50% signifies the trend of

migration towards other cities or districts. The table below shows that female headed households

face the pressure of food insecurity for longer period of time than the male headed households.

Table- Distribution of Food Insecurity Days among Female and Male Headed Households

(Per cent)

District Days of FIS Sex of Head

Male Female

Nettokona 0 46.2 8.3

1-36 25.4 25.0

37+ 28.4 66.7

Total 100.0 100.0

Mymensingh 0 45.3 11.1

1-36 16.0 22.2

37+ 38.8 66.7

Total 100.0 100.0

Netrokona & Mymensingh 0 45.6 9.5

1-36 19.5 23.8

37+ 34.9 66.7

Total 100.0 100.0

This situation can also be seen from another perspective regarding decision making participation

and as can be seen from the following table that the female are ignored in most decision making

situation save only the cooking work. Even development of children in largely biased with male

inputs and decision choices.

Mother's participation in decisions on use of household resources, CMNS 2005 Who makes the decisions on: Rural Urban National

(%) (%) (%)

How much money the Mother only 5.2 6.4 5.4

household spends on food

Husband only 47.8 44.3 47.1

Mother and other household member(s) jointly

32.0 34.8 32.6

Other household member(s) 14.9 14.6 14.9

What food is bought for the household

Mother only 6.2 9.5 6.8

Husband only 44.8 41.2 44.1

Mother and other household 33.8 35.2 34.0 member(s) jointly Other household member(s) 15.3 14.1 15.0

What food is cooked for the household

Mother only 49.5 56.7 50.9

Husband only 10.6 6.1 9.7

Mother and other household 27.5 25.3 27.1 member(s) jointly

Other household member(s) 12.3 12.0 12.3

Whether mother attends a health facility for her own health needs

Mother only 5.3 7.1 5.6

Husband only 38.8 40.3 39.1

Mother and other household member(s) jointly

40.8 40.5 40.7

Other household member(s) 15.2 12.0 14.6

Whether mothers child Mother only 4.7 7.3 5.2

Husband only 38.8 38.8 38.8

Mother and other household 41.5 42.1 41.6

member(s) jointly

Other household member(s) 15.0 11.8 14.4

Maternal caring practices during pregnancy, delivery and postpartum, CMNS 2005

Rural Urban National

Food eaten in pregnancy compared with before

Less 40.4 40.6 40.5 Same 46.7 40.8 45.5

More 12.9 18.6 14.0

Rest taken in pregnancy compared with before

Less 22.2 19.9 21.7 Same 59.4 52.4 57.9

More 18.4 27.7 20.4

The above table shows the level of caring received by the female during pregnancy period and can

be seen the level of negligence that even rest taking time is not changed that much.

Prevalence of underweight, stunting, wasting and overweight/obesity in children aged <5

years (WHO 2005 GRS), CMNS 2005

Prevalence of underweight

and stunting among the

children below 5 years of

age is very high than the

other type of malnutrition;

wasting and overweight.

The total percentage is

very high as those close to

around 45% for both of the

Underweight (40%) and

Stunting (50%)

Key Indicators on Report of Sample Vital Registration System 2006 & 2007

Indicators 2007 2006 31. Neonatal Mortality Rate (Per 1000 live births)

31.1 National - Both Sexes 29 31

- Male 33 33

- Female 26 29

31.2 Rural - Both Sexes 30 32

- Male 32 35

- Female 28 29

31.3 Urban - Both Sexes 29 27

- Male 36 25

- Female 22 29

32. Post Neonatal Mortality Rate (Per 1000 live births) 32.1 National - Both Sexes 13 14

- Male 11 14

- Female 14 14

32.2 Rural - Both Sexes 13 15

- Male 13 15

- Female 13 15

32.3 Urban - Both Sexes 13 11

- Male 6 10

- Female 20 12

33. Child Death Rate (1-4 yrs) Per 1000 Children aged 1-4 yrs - National 3.6 3.9

- Rural 4.0 4.1

- Urban 2.3 3.3

34. Under 5 Mortality Rate (Per 1000 live births) 34.1 National - Both Sexes 60 62

- Male 62 64

- Female 58 59

34.2 Rural - Both Sexes 62 64

- Male 64 69

- Female 59 60

34.3 Urban - Both Sexes 54 53

- Male 52 49

- Female 56 57

The above table shows another surprising fact that the mortality ratio among male is normally

higher but the scenario changes when the female conceives and gives birth (before age of 5) and

the mortality rate among the female get higher than the male reflecting again the general level of

negligence about the female in our country.

3.0 Government Initiative: 3.1 The Government of Bangladesh had taken several steps for arresting rise in food prices

and safeguarding the poor. Fair price shops had been opened under special management while

open market sales have also been geared-up. During 2007-08 about 0.25 million metric tons of

grain have been sold so far under Open Market Sale (OMS). Other safety- net programs such as.

Vulnerable Group Development (VGD) and Vulnerable Group Feeding (VGF) have continued with

allocation of 0.22 and 0.19 million metric tons respectively. The government initiated an income

generation program worth Tk. 100 crore (1000 million) to enhance purchasing power of the rural

poor people.

3.2 The Government has also started a regular monitoring of market prices of nine essential

commodities such as rice, wheat flour, edible oil, sugar, pulse (lentil), onion, potato, salt and

powdered milk. For this purpose, two committees are working. As a part of this monitoring, the

Government is also keeping liaison with the business community.

3.3 The Government has taken major steps for encouraging production of food grains.

Continuous fertilizer monitoring on daily basis has been made to ensure timely supply of fertilizer to

the farmers. The Government has curtailed supply of electricity to urban areas to ensure

uninterrupted supply to irrigation pumps. Government has also announced subsidy for diesel for

agriculture. All these and favorable weather have already ensued a bumper harvest of potato,

wheat. Maize and Boro rice harvest already has began and are also expected to be bountiful.

Government has also announced procurement program for rice and wheat at remunerative price

which will hopefully lead to building up stocks and stabilizing the market.

3.4 The Government is implementing a programme to increase production up to 25 percent of

major crops during July 2007 to June 2010. Government has taken steps to prepare Upazila (sub-

district) wise crop production plan for the coming crop seasons aiming at increase of different crops

through input management, intensive extension, technology transfer and monitoring. Government

has taken strategy for horizontal expansion by using fallow agricultural land in coastal and hilly

areas of the country.

4.0 Indication for the Future

Given the seriousness of global food supply and demand imbalances, cereal markets may not

regain their stability any time soon. Prices might come down, but they are not likely to reach their

previous low levels for several years to come. Faced with this situation, many governments have

tried to limit the increase in domestic food prices by raising subsidies, lowering import tariffs or

imposing export restrictions. A second Green Revolution is need that should incorporate a global

frame work of Food Security and increased cooperation among nation states. "Simply ratcheting up

the fertilizer and pesticide-led production methods of the 20th Century is unlikely to address the

challenge", says Achim Steiner. "It will increasingly undermine the critical natural inputs and

nature-based services for agriculture such as healthy and productive soils, the water and nutrient

recycling of forests, and pollinators such as bees and bats."

4.1 Global Level

The rice market has essentially seized up because three major exporters, Thailand, India, and

Vietnam, have either imposed export restrictions or are struggling to export. More food aid simply

cannot resolve this problem. But Washington can take immediate action by exerting leadership to

get new rice supplies, specifically from Japan and China, to the world market.

How can this be done? Japan has large stocks of rice (about 1.5 million tons) based on its WTO

obligation to import rice. These stocks are not sold domestically; instead they are allowed to decay

and then used as livestock feed. Last year about 400,000 tons of rice was disposed in this manner.

WTO obligations prevent Japan from reexporting this rice. But the United States can relieve Japan

of these obligations, which would allow Japan to sell its stocks commercially or as aid; food that is

fed to animals could easily be used to feed starving people. This could also be a grand gesture

ahead of Japan's G-8 summit in July.

In addition to the release of Japan's rice stocks, China could get some badly needed good publicity

by also taking a leadership role in this crisis. Beijing is holding rice stocks equal to at least four

months of domestic consumption. Just as China helped stabilize the world rice market from 1973 to

1975 during the worst rice crisis ever, China could do so again now without repercussions on its

own inflation rate. Alternatively, China could launch its own food aid program to help the world's

poor and could call it "Olympic Rice," and could even make their first donation to Myanmar.

Second, on food aid, the United States can easily increase its assistance—by up to 50 percent—

without providing any additional money. All it needs to do is to eliminate the current requirement

that food be sourced from the United States. My colleague Kimberly Elliott of CGD (Elliott 2006)

has noted that every dollar of food aid could go much further if the tying requirement is eliminated

(just from the saving in increased shipping and distribution costs). That would mean feeding an

extra million children annually2

4.1.1 Some Points to Ponder

Losses and food waste in the United States could be as high as 40-50 per cent, according to some

recent estimates. Up to one quarter of all fresh fruits and vegetables in the US is lost between the

field and the table.

In Australia it is estimated that food waste makes up half of that country's landfill. Almost

one-third of all food purchased in the United Kingdom every year is not eaten.

Food losses in the developing world are also considerable, mainly due to spoilage and

pests. For instance, in Africa, the total amount of fish lost through discards, post-harvest

loss and spoilage may be around 30 per cent of landings.

Food losses in the field between planting and harvesting could be as high as 20-40 per cent

of the potential harvest in developing countries due to factors such as pests and pathogens

to 'environmental breakdowns' by 2050 unless action is taken. Already, cereal yields have

stagnated worldwide and fish landings are declining.

Today, over one third of the world's cereals are being used as animal feed, rising to 50 per

cent by 2050. Continuing to feed cereals to growing numbers of livestock will aggravate

poverty and environmental degradation.

The report instead suggests that recycling food wastes and deploying new technologies,

aimed at producing biofuels, to produce sugars from discards such as straw and even

nutshells could be a key environmentally-friendly alternative to increased use of cereals for

livestock.

The amount of fish currently discarded at sea - estimated at 30 million tonnes annually -

could alone sustain more than a 50 per cent increase in fish farming and aquaculture

production, which is needed to maintain per capita fish consumption at current levels by

2050 without increasing pressure on an already stressed marine environment.

4.2 National Level

The face of the crises will not be cleared in recent future. Moreover the coming future may face

smaller problems to rise at regional and national level yet the following strategies are at disposal of

the government.

2. The WFP estimates that it takes 25 cents to fill one of the "red cups" that it uses to give hungry children a regular

school meal of porridge, rice, or beans. Three meals a day for a year then costs about $275. If the recent authorization of

$770 million can go, say, another 40 percent without tying, that would mean food for about 1.1 million additional

children annually.

Increased public investment in agricultural with emphasis on agricultural research is needed.

Increase technology development and dissemination in the areas of short duration variety,

hybrid, post-harvest loss, agro-processing, efficient water and natural resources management,

organic farming, biodiversity preservation, pest and disease control keeping in view farmers

need and socio-economic condition, adverse agro-climatic condition etc.

Intensify replacement of traditional variety and replenishing of existing HYVs.

Facilitate and ensures smooth supply of quality agricultural input (seed, fertilizer, irrigation

equipment, agricultural machinery) at affordable price.

Reduce post-harvest loss; enhance storage facility for farmers’ marketable produce.

Promote agro-processing and agri-business sector.

Develop farmers/grower’s market to ensure fair price for both growers and consumers.

Improve market infrastructure.

Maintain Governments bluffer stock/ security stock to a reasonable level.

Emphasize Governments social safety net program and expanded relief to include all living

below poverty line (40%) and disadvantaged and vulnerable segment of the society (elderly

people, destitute women, children, and the physically challenged)

Temporary price increases can be mitigated by temporary, targeted subsides

Beyond the current price boom, the most effective response is to seize the opportunity and step

up efforts to encourage expansion domestic agricultural production by improving infrastructure

distribution and storage systems, increasing competition, providing an effective and service

oriented regulatory environment and access to finance and removing trade barriers. This will

increase productivity and food supply.

5.0 Conclusion: These are dangerous portents for the future. Improving agricultural productivity will become a more

not a less, challenging task in the decades ahead. The supply of readily arable land is diminishing

in most developing countries. Water scarcity is already a constraint in the semi-arid tropical zones

of Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia where pressure on the land is high. According to the

projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, weather extremes including severe

drought are likely to become more frequent in those same regions. When the world recovers from

recession, income growth and dietary shifts will once again put demand pressure on the world’s

food supply.

What is required first and foremost is to put agriculture back at the top of the global development

agenda. We seem to have forgotten that no economy has achieved sustained growth and

graduated to middle income status without first developing its agriculture. The counter-productive

policies of developed nations must also be changed. US, European and Japanese farm subsidies

distort world market prices and undercut small farmers in Africa and Asia. European opposition to

the use of genetically modified seeds in African agriculture has hampered productivity growth. The

US practice that aid recipient countries buy US commodities with the aid has the net effect of

depressing local markets.

It is natural that the global market situation will be reflected or transferred more in the countries

with weak road, transport and storage and other facilitation services though they may have

substantial local production capacity. So, beside production it should be the agricultural marketing

management in general that should be taken care of to mange the issue of the food security and

safety. As already mentioned in numerous research findings and literature food security and safety

issue has at the least four dimensions; Global, National, Household level and Individual Level, yet

we think the global perspective should considered most as we are in the realm of market economy

that is globally more connected. Moreover, if we want to take a solution approach to the issue, we

should visualize the matters like Global Food Bank and scopes in regional cooperation and

lessening market distorting practices.

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