Food and Agricultural Export Outlook in the Global Economy
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Transcript of Food and Agricultural Export Outlook in the Global Economy
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Situation and Outlook ForGlobal Food and Agricultural Trade
September 29, 2010
Michael J. Dwyer, Director
Global Trade and Biofuels AnalysisOffice of Global Analysis
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA
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Booming Exports Are A Major Growth FactorFor the U.S. Food and Agricultural Sector
Exports rebound to near record $113 billion in 2011 on rising demandin developing countries, falling dollar, and higher prices
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011
(f)
U.S. agricultural trade ($ billion)
Exports
Imports
Fiscal years
Exports in 2011 up65% since 2006
Ag trade surplus to grow to $31.5 billion in 2011 one of few U.S. industries that still has a surplus
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Recent Export Gains Have Been Strongest toNAFTA and Non-Japan AsiaExports to Canada, Mexico, China, and SE Asia have responded to rapid economicgrowth and/or trade liberalization. In 2011, biggest gains are to Asia
US Ag Exports ($ Bil)
010
20304050
60708090
100110120
'86 '91 '96 '01 06 11f
0
10
20
30
40
50
'86 '91 '96 '01 06 11f
Share of Exports (%)
Canada
Mexico
Japan
Other AsiaEU-27
EUEU--2727
AsiaAsia
NAFTANAFTA
Rest ofWorld
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Top Markets Export PerformanceExports in $ billions, FY basis
Canada
CHINA
Mexico
Japan
EU-27
South Korea
Taiwan
Hong Kong
Indonesia
Turkey
2001 2011f % $8.0
$1.9
$7.3
$8.9
$6.5
$2.5
$2.0
$1.2
$0.9
$0.6
$16.8
$15.0
$14.6
$11.5
$8.6
$5.0
$3.2
$2.5
$2.1
$2.1
110
689
100
29
32
10060
108
133
250
2010 forecasts are from Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade, Aug 2010
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U.S. Is Not Only Major Exporter Seeing GainsS. America and S.E. Asia increased the most (%) -- EU and Australia saw
slowest growth
67.3
31.0
21.6
18.1
19.1
19.4
12.7
10.8
98.6
91.5
53.2
30.1
26.9
28.3
21.8
21.2
20.8
65.5
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
United StatesEU-27
Brazil
Canada
Argentina
China
Australia
Thailand
Indonesia
2005 2009
Total Agricultural Exports (bil $)
After relinquishing top spot to EU in 2005 and 2006, the U.S. regained the No. 1position since 2007
Source: GTIS using Global Trade Atlas. Definition of ag differs somewhat from Bureau of Census so U.S. stats not same as reported by FAS in BICO reports
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Leading Exports of U.S. Processed Products
Have Surged Since 2005
8
6.1
6.4
3
2.9
2.7
1.9
1.0
0.9
10.9
4.9
4.5
3.5
2.9
2.6
1.6
11.4
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Meat and Poultry
Food Ingredients
Consumer Pack. Prod.
Beverages, Liquid
Frozen Foods
Snack Foods
Dairy
Vegetables
Billion $
20052010 (f)
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Top U.S. Processed Product Export MarketsExports in billion $
Canada
Mexico
Japan
EU-27
South Korea
Hong Kong
CHINA
CAFTA-DR
Taiwan
Russia
2000 2010f % $4.8
$2.7
$5.2
$2.8
$1.2
$0.9
$0.3
$0.5
$0.4
$0.5
$11.3
$6.2
$5.1
$4.9
$1.8
$1.7
$1.5
$1.1
$0.9
$0.8
136
131
-3
77
56
92390
121
109
77
Note: % change based on unrounded figures
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U.S. Processed Food Product ExportsFocused in Higher Income MarketsBut the best growth has been in developing country markets
$8.1
$1.0
$4.6
$16.8
$1.6
$2.1
$0.5
$0.6
$0.8
$1.6
$1.5
$0.9
$0.7
$1.7
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Longer Term
Global Trade Outlook
Strong global economic growth and rising incomes and populations,especially in emerging markets,will lead to rapid growth in middle
class households, boosting foreign demand for food products. This,
coupled with a competitively priced U.S. dollar and strong supportfrom the U.S. government, should lead to a significant increase inthe value of U.S. ag exports.
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What Is The Long Term Outlook ForU.S. Agricultural Exports?USDA conservatively projects exports will reach $119 billion by 2019,up $22.3 billion from 2009 levels
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
U.S. agricultural exports ($ billion)
Fiscal Year
NOTE: * NEI goal is only 5 years. This has been projected out to 10 years here for the purpose of comparison
Source: USDA Agricultural Projections to 2019, February 2010
Projections (2010-19)
2009 Outlook
2010 Outlook
USDAs NEI Goal *
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8 Factors Impacting Global Food andAgricultural Markets Over the Next DecadeNet takeaway: strong demand growth, especially from emerging markets, will bethe central megatrend over the next decade, boosting global trade
Global economic growth Value of the U.S. dollar
Worldwide biofuels production
Role of trade and trade liberalization
Policy errors by governments
Energy prices Biotech developments
Additional crop land
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Middle ClassMiddle Class in Developing Countries Could Reach 616 Millionin Developing Countries Could Reach 616 Million
Households By 2020, Up 138% From 2009 LevelsHouseholds By 2020, Up 138% From 2009 Levels25% of households in these countries are middle class. By 2020,25% of households in these countries are middle class. By 2020, this couldthis could
increase to 49% and the impact on food consumption will be largeincrease to 49% and the impact on food consumption will be large
234
60
12
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
3
2
21
0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 325 350
China
IndiaBrazil
Indonesia
Russia
Egypt
ThailandMexico
TurkeyVietnam
Philippines
Iran
PolandNigeria
Households with real PPP incomes greater than $20,000 (in millions)
2009 levels Proj gains by 2020
Developing countries with fastest growing middle class
Source: Global Insights Global Consumer Markets data as analyzed by OGA
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