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  • Future Hype:The Myths of Technology Change

  • Hi there

  • Technology ChangeIncreases ExponentiallyI was born in the middle of human history. Almost as much has happened since I was born as happened before. Kenneth Boulding, quoted in Future Shock (1970)High Tech Myth #1

  • Technology ChangeIncreases ExponentiallyAirplaneRailroadTelephoneElectricityCar, TruckSkyscraperBooksPC + Web

  • Technology ChangeIncreases Exponentially America is addicted to oil. Pres. Bush, State of the Union address, 1/31/06 America is addicted to oil. Pres. Bush, State of the Union address, 1/31/06America is addicted to fossil fuelFuel cell 1839Solar cell 1850sBattery 1799Lead-acidbattery 1859Incandescentbulb 1880First 60mph car (electric) 1899

  • Technology ChangeIncreases ExponentiallyBUSTEDTechnology is changingno faster todaythan it has since theIndustrial Revolution

  • Technology isInevitableHigh Tech Myth #2Youre either part of the steamrolleror part of the road. Stuart Brand, author

  • Technology isInevitable

  • Technology isInevitable

  • Technology isInevitableTV? 3D TV!Weather prediction?Weather control!Telephone? Videophone!

  • Technology isInevitableTV? 3D TV!Weather prediction?Weather control!Telephone? Videophone!Home robotsEbooksMoon basesSelf-driving carsPaperless officesNucleareverythingMovingsidewalksIrradiatedfoodPaper clothesRotaryengineFreezedryingSmartcardsFaxnewspapersMHD5th generationcomputersArtificialintelligenceMetric

  • Technology isInevitableBUSTEDThe next shiny new technologyis not inevitable

  • When you get the urge to predict the future,better lie down until the feeling goes away. Forbes, 1978

  • It must be obvious to anyone with any senseof history and any awareness of human naturethat there will be SSTs.And Super SSTs. And Super-Super SSTs.Mankind is simply not going to sit backwith the Boeing 747 and say,This is as far as we go. Spiro Agnew, US Vice President, 1972This is not anacademic issue

  • Todays TechnologyEclipses All[The Internet is] the most transforming technological eventsince the capture of fire.I used to think it was just the biggest thing since Gutenberg,but now I think you have to go back farther. John Perry Barlow,an Electronic Frontier Foundation founder (1995)High Tech Myth #3

  • Todays TechnologyEclipses AllThe Internetsimportant applications arent newand the new ones arent important

  • Todays TechnologyEclipses AllEcommerce:$70 billion in 2004$70 billion

  • Todays TechnologyEclipses AllEcommerce:$70 billion in 2004Non-store sales $350 billion

  • Todays TechnologyEclipses AllEcommerce:$70 billion in 2004Retail sales $3.6 trillion

  • Todays TechnologyEclipses Allcatalogsphone, maillibraries, encyclopediasfast printing presses

  • Todays TechnologyEclipses AllThe Internet changes everything. director at Hambrecht & Quist, 1995Space travel changes everything (60s)Nuclear power changes everything (50s)

  • Todays TechnologyEclipses All1815: Battle of New Orleans1844: Morse telegraph1860: 100K miles of line1866: transatlantic cable

  • Todays TechnologyEclipses AllMoores Lawis amazing,but its only amazing

  • Todays TechnologyEclipses AllCost changes 19812006: computing power: 0.02% PC: 25%

  • Todays TechnologyEclipses AllWhat benefit to a 100 faster PC?Contrast with a truckConstruction equipment Farming equipment Factory machines

  • Todays TechnologyEclipses AllBUSTEDThe PC and Internetare valuable new technologies,but no more so thanany other major technologysince the Industrial Revolution

  • TechnologysHidden CostsLaptop costs: $500 per year? No: $5000 per year! (Gartner)MaintenanceSoftware upgradesDowntimeTrainingUser supportTweaking: $100B/year

  • $2,700,000,000,000

    TechnologysHidden CostsHow much do businesses worldwidespend on Information Technology?every year!

  • TechnologysHidden CostsThe Wild, Wild Internet>50% of email is spamSpywareScamsViruses cost $50 billion/yearSpam costs $22 billion/yearPersonal web surfing costs $300 billion/yearMisinformation

  • TechnologysHidden CostsStressHappiness

  • Guidelines for theTechnology Consumer1. Be Skeptical2. Beware Predictions3. Permission Slip4. Debate5. Relax!