FOMC20090923bbgbmaterial.pdf

Accessible Material

September 2009 Bluebook and Greenbook Tables and Charts

Table of Contents

Document Section Accessible Material

Bluebook

Recent Developments FOMC20090923bluebook20090917_1.htm

Monetary Policy Strategies FOMC20090923bluebook20090917_2.htm

Policy Alternatives FOMC20090923bluebook20090917_3.htm

Long-Run Projections of the Balance Sheet and Monetary Base FOMC20090923bluebook20090917_4.htm

Bank Credit, Debt, and Money Forecast FOMC20090923bluebook20090917_5.htm

Appendix A: Measures of the Equilibrium Real Rate FOMC20090923bluebook20090917_6.htm

Appendix C: Long-run Projections of the Balance Sheet and Monetary Base FOMC20090923bluebook20090917_7.htm

Greenbook Part 1

Domestic Developments FOMC20090923gbpt120090916_1.htm

International Developments FOMC20090923gbpt120090916_2.htm

Greenbook Part 2

Domestic Nonfinancial Developments FOMC20090923gbpt220090916_1.htm

Domestic Financial Developments FOMC20090923gbpt220090916_2.htm

International Developments FOMC20090923gbpt220090916_3.htm

Greenbook Supplement

Supplemental Notes FOMC20090923gbsup20090918_1.htm

Last update: April 1, 2015

Accessible Material

September 2009 Bluebook Tables and Charts†

Recent Developments

Chart 1Interest Rate Developments

Figure: Expected federal funds rates

Line chart, by percent, late 2009 to 2011. There are two series, "September 17, 2009" and "August 11, 2009". They begin at about 0.25. September 17, 2009generally increases to end at 2.4. August 11, 2009 generally increases to end at about 2.8.

Note. Estimates from federal funds and Eurodollar futures, with an allowance for term premiums and other adjustments.

Source. CME Group.

Figure: Distribution of expected quarter of first rate increase from the Desk's Dealer Survey

Bar chart, by percent, 2010:Q1 to 2012:Q2. There are two series, "Recent: 17 respondents" and "Last FOMC: 17 respondents". Recent: 17 respondents begins atabout 0 and generally increases to about 30 by 2010:Q3. It then generally decreases to about 0 by 2011:Q4, and generally increases to about 6 by 2012:Q1. Itthen generally decreases to end at about 0. Last FOMC: 17 respondents begins at about 0 and generally increases to about 24 by 2010:Q2. It then generallydecreases to about 0 by 2011:Q3, and generally increases to about 13 by 2012:Q1. It then generally decreases to end at about 0.

Source. Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Figure: Eurodollar implied volatility term structure

Line chart, by percentage points, 4 to 21 months ahead. There are two series, "September 17, 2009" and "August 11, 2009". They begin at about 0.4. September17, 2009 generally increases to end at about 4.1. August 11, 2009 generally increases to end at about 4.7.

Note. Eurodollar implied volatility term structure is the width of a 90 percent confidence interval computed from the term structures for the expected federal funds rate and implied volatility.

Source. Bloomberg.

Figure: Nominal Treasury yields

Line chart, by percent, 2007 to September 17, 2009. Data are daily. The August 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There are two series, "10-year"and "2-year". They begin at about 4.7 and generally track together until they reach about 5 by 2007. 10-year generally increases to about 5.4 by 2007, andgenerally decreases to about 2.6 by late 2008. It then generally increases to about 4.3 by 2009, and generally decreases to end at about 3.8. It is at about 4.1 atthe time of the August 2009 FOMC meeting. 2-year generally decreases to about 1.5 by 2008, and generally increases to about 3 by 2008. It then generallydecreases to about 0.4 by late 2008, and generally increases to end at about 1. It is at about 1.4 at the time of the August 2009 FOMC meeting.

Note. Par yields from a smoothed nominal off-the-run Treasury yield curve.

Source. Staff estimates.

Figure: Inflation compensation

Line chart, by percent, 2007 to September 17, 2009. Data are daily. The August 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There are two series, "Next 5years" and "5-to-10 year forward". Next 5 years begins at about 2.3 and generally decreases to about 1.8 by 2008. It then generally increases to about 2.5 by mid-2008, and generally decreases to about -1.55 by late 2008. It then generally increases to end at about 1.5. It is at about 1.25 at the time of the August 2009FOMC. 5-to-10 year forward begins at about 2.5 and generally increases to about 3.5 by 2008. It then generally decreases to about 2.0 by late 2008, and generallyincreases to end at about 3.0. It is at about 3.25 at the time of the August 2009 FOMC meeting.

Note. Estimates based on smoothed nominal and inflation-indexed Treasury yield curves and adjusted for the indexation-lag (carry) effect.

Source. Barclays, PLC. and Staff estimates.

Figure: Survey measures of long-term inflation

Line chart, by percent, 2002 to 2009. There are two series, "Philadelphia Fed" and "Michigan Survey". Philadelphia Fed begins at about 2.5 and generallydecreases to about 2.3 by 2007. It then generally increases to end at about 2.5 by 2009:Q3. Michigan Survey begins at about 2.7 and generally increases to about3.0 by 2002. It then generally decreases to about 2.5 by 2002, and generally increases to about 3.4 by 2008. It then generally decreases to about 2.6 by early

2009, and generally increases to end at about 2.9 by September.

Source. Survey of Professional Forecasters; Reuters/University of Michigan.

Chart 2Asset Market Developments

Figure: Equity prices

Line chart, 2008 to September 17, 2009. January 2, 2008 = 100. Data are daily. The August 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There are threeseries, "S&P 500", "Bank ETF", and "Insurance ETF". S&P 500 begins at about 98 and generally decreases to about 48 by 2009. It then generally increases to endat about 74. It is at about 70 at the time of the August 2009 FOMC meeting. Bank ETF begins at about 98 and generally decreases to about 91 by 2008. It thengenerally increases to about 110 by 2008, and generally decreases to about 58 by 2008. It then generally increases to about 91 by 2008, and generally decreasesto about 21 by 2009. It then generally increases to end at about 57. It is at about 53 at the time of the August 2009 FOMC meeting. Insurance ETF begins at about100 and generally decreases to about 30 by 2009. It then generally increases to end at about 72. It is at about 64 at the time of the August 2009 FOMC meeting.

Note. There are 24 banks included in the Bank ETF and 24 insurance companies included in the Insurance ETF.

Source. Keefe Bruyette & Woods (KBW) and Bloomberg.

Figure: Implied volatility on S&P 500 (VIX)

Line chart, by percent, 2002 to September 17, 2009. Data are daily. The August 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. The series begins at about 20and generally decreases to about 18 by 2002. It then generally increases to about 47 by 2002, and generally decreases to about 8 by late 2005. It then generallyincreases to about 60 by late 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 24. It is at about 28 at the time of the August 2009 FOMC meeting.

Source. Chicago Board Options Exchange.

Figure: Corporate bond spreads

Line chart, 2002 to September 17, 2009. Unit is basis points. Data are daily. The August 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There are two series,"10-year BBB" and "10-year High-Yield". These two series use two different scales. 10-year BBB begins at about 190 and generally increases to about 315 by late2002. It then generally decreases to about 90 by early 2005, and generally increases to about 655 by late 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 290. Itis at about 295 at the time of the August 2009 FOMC meeting. 10-year High-Yield begins at about 500 and generally increases to about 850 by 2002. It thengenerally decreases to about 250 by early 2005, and generally increases to about 1650 by late 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 625. It is at about700 at the time of the August 2009 FOMC meeting.

Note. Measured relative to an estimated off-the-run Treasury yield curve.

Source. Merrill Lynch and Staff estimates.

Figure: Senior unsecured debt issuance

Line chart, by billions of dollars, November 2008 to September 2009. There are two series, "FDIC-guaranteed" and "Non-guaranteed". FDIC-guaranteed begins atabout 20 and generally increases to about 90 by December 2008. It then generally decreases to about 24 by February 2009, and generally increases to about 57by March. It then generally decreases to about 0 by August, and generally increases to end at about 5. Non-guaranteed begins at about 0 and generally increasesto about 5 by January 2009. It then generally decreases to about 0 by February, and generally increases to about 29 by May. It then generally decreases to about8 by July, and generally increases to end at about 10.

Note. September issuance is through September 17.

Source. Bloomberg and Staff estimates.

Figure: Selected interest rates

Line chart, by percent, January to September 2009. The August 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There are three series, "FRM", "MBS yield", and"On-the-run 10-yr treasury". FRM begins at about 5 and generally increases to about 5.2 by early February. It then generally decreases to about 4.8 by late March,and generally increases to about 5.5 by June. It then generally decreases to end at about 5 by September 16. It is at about 5.4 at the time of the August 2009FOMC meeting. MBS yield begins at about 4.2 and generally decreases to about 3.7 by January. It then generally increases to about 5 by June, and generallydecreases to end at about 4.4 by September 17. On-the-run 10-yr treasury begins at about 2.5 and generally decreases to about 2.2 by January. It then generallyincreases to about 3.9 by June, and generally decreases to end at about 3.5 by September 17. It is at about 3.7 at the time of the August 2009 FOMC meeting.

Note. Data are business daily except for FRM which is weekly.

Source. Bloomberg.

Figure: Gross ABS Issuance

Bar chart, by billions of dollars, 2006 to September 2009. Data are monthly rate. There are three series, "Credit Card", "Auto", and "Student Loan". Approximate

values are: 2006: Credit Card 5, Auto 7.5, and Student Loan 7. 2007: Credit Card 8, Auto 6.5, and Student Loan 5.5. 2008:H1: Credit Card 8, Auto 6, and StudentLoan 4. 2008:H2: Credit Card 1.8, Auto 0.7, and Student Loan 1.5. 2009:Q1: Credit Card 0.2, Auto 3.3, and Student Loan 1. April 2009: Credit Card 1, Auto 3.5,and Student Loan 5. May 2009: Credit Card 7.5, Auto 3.5, and Student Loan 3. June 2009: Credit Card 13, Auto 7, and Student Loan 1. July 2009: Credit Card 2.5,Auto 11.5, and Student Loan 3. August 2009: Credit Card 4.5, Auto 0.5, and Student Loan 3. September 2009: Credit Card 6, and Auto 9.

Note. Auto ABS include car loans and leases and financing for buyers of motorcycles. September 2009 plotted values show actual issuance as of September 11, 2009.

Source. Inside MBS & ABS, Merrill Lynch, Bloomberg, and the Federal Reserve.

Chart 3Market Functioning

Figure: Spreads of Libor over OIS

Line chart, January 2007 to September 17, 2009. Unit is basis points. Data are daily. The August 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There arethree series, "1-month", "3-month", and "6-month". 1-month begins at about 0 and generally increases to about 110 by December 2007. It then generallydecreases to about 15 by January 2008, and generally increases to about 335 by October 2008. It then generally decreases to about 85 by late November 2008,and generally increases to about 160 by early December 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 10. It is at about 15 at the time of the August 2009FOMC meeting. 3-month begins at about 0 and generally increases to about 110 by early December 2007. It then generally decreases to about 30 by January2008, and generally increases to about 365 by October 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 15. It is at about 28 at the time of the August 2009FOMC meeting. 6-month begins at about 0 and generally increases to about 100 by early December 2007. It then generally decreases to about 49 by January2008, and generally increases to about 325 by October 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 50. It is at about 65 at the time of the August 2009FOMC.

Note. Libor quotes are taken at 6:00 a.m., and OIS quotes are observed at the close of business of the previous trading day.

Source. Bloomberg.

Figure: Spreads on 30-day commercial paper

Line chart, July 2007 to September 15, 2009. Unit is basis points. Data are daily. The August 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There are twoseries, "ABCP" and "A2/P2". ABCP begins at about 0 and generally increases to about 200 by December 2007. It then generally decreases to about 30 by lateJanuary 2008, and generally increases to about 395 by late September 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 20. It is at about 5 at the time of theAugust 2009 FOMC meeting. A2/P2 begins at about 10 and generally increases to about 150 by December 2007. It then generally decreases to about 40 byJanuary 2008, and generally increases to about 615 by early January 2009. It then generally decreases to end at about 35. It is at about 30 at the of the August2009 FOMC meeting.

Note. The ABCP spread is the AA ABCP rate minus the AA nonfinancial rate. The A2/P2 spread is the A2/P2 nonfinancial rate minus the AA nonfinancial rate.

Source. Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation.

Figure: Treasury on-the-run premium

Line chart, 2001 to September 2009. Unit is basis points. Data are monthly averages. The August 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There are twoseries, "10-year note" and "2-year". 10-year note begins at about 15 and generally increases to about 28 by 2002. It then generally decreases to about 5 by late2006, and generally increases to about 60 by early 2009. It then generally decreases to end at about 28. It is at about 34 at the time of the August 2009 FOMCmeeting. 2-year begins at about 8 and generally increases to about 10 by 2001. It then generally decreases to about -3 by 2003, and generally increases to about14 by early 2009. It then generally decreases to about -2 by 2009, and generally increases to end at about 0. It is at about 2 at the time of the August 2009 FOMCmeeting.

Note. Computed as the spread of the yield read from an estimated off-the-run yield curve over the on-the-run Treasury yield. September observation is the month-to-date average.

Source. Staff estimates.

Figure: On-the-run Treasury market volume and turnover

Line chart, by billions of dollars, 2003 to 2009. Data are monthly averages. There are two series, "Trading volume" and "Turnover". These two series use twodifferent scales. Trading volume begins at about 80 and generally decreases to about 50 by 2003. It then generally increases to about 230 by 2007, and generallydecreases to about 122 by 2007. It then generally increases to about 285 by early 2008, and generally decreases to about 65 by early 2009. It then generallyincreases to end at about 128 by September. It is at about 125 at the time of the August 2009 FOMC meeting. Turnover begins at about 1.3 and generallydecreases to about 0.9 by 2003. It then generally increases to about 4.6 by early 2007, and generally decreases to about 2.3 by 2007. It then generally increasesto about 5.5 by late 2007, and generally decreases to about 0.8 by early 2009. It then generally increases to end at about 1.2 by August. It is at about 1.2 at thetime of the August 2009 FOMC meeting.

Note. Turnover is trading volume divided by total outstanding at the end of the month. September observation for trading volume is the month-to-date average.

Source. BrokerTec Interdealer Market Data and Bloomberg.

Figure: Average range of CDS dealer contributions

Line chart showing Investment-grade: Financial, January 2007 to September 16, 2009. Unit is basis points. Data are daily. The August 2009 FOMC meeting ismarked in the time series. The series begins at about 2 and generally increases to about 30 by July 2008. It then generally decreases to about 15 by earlySeptember 2008, and generally increases to about 65 by March 2009. It then generally decreases to end at about 12. It is at about 12 at the time of the August2009 FOMC meeting.

Source. Markit.

Figure: Cash-synthetic spread in corporate bond market

Line chart, June 2008 to September 16, 2009. Unit is basis points. Data are daily. The August 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There are twoseries, "JPMorgan US liquid index" and "Investment-grade CDX". JPMorgan US liquid index begins at about 160 and generally increases to about 530 by earlyDecember 2008. It then generally decreases to about 430 by February, and generally increases to about 510 by March. It then generally decreases to end at about175. It is at about 180 at the time of the August 2009 FOMC meeting. Investment-grade CDX begins at about 100 and generally increases to about 275 byNovember. It then generally decreases to about 195 by February 2009, and generally increases to about 265 by March. It then generally decreases to end at about100. It is at about 110 at the time of the August 2009 FOMC meeting.

Note. JPMorgan US liquid index is spread to swaps.

Source. JPMorgan.

[Box:] Balance Sheet Developments during the Intermeeting Period

Federal Reserve Balance SheetBillions of dollars

Change since last

FOMC

Current (09/16/2009)

Maximum level

Date of maximum

level

Total assets 133 2,143 2,256 12/17/08

Selected assets:

Liquidity programs for financial firms -57 286 1,247 11/06/08

Primary, secondary, and seasonal credit -5 29 114 10/28/08

Term auction credit (TAF) -38 196 493 03/11/09

Foreign central bank liquidity swaps -14 61 586 12/04/08

Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF) 0 0 156 09/29/08

Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility (AMLF) 0 0 152 10/01/08

Lending through other credit facilities -1 87 351 01/23/09

Net portfolio holdings of Commercial Paper Funding Facility LLC (CPFF) -15 43 351 01/23/09

Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) 14 44 44 09/11/09

Support for specific institutions -2 101 118 04/02/09

Credit extended to AIG, net -2 39 91 10/27/08

Net portfolio holdings of Maiden Lane LLC, Maiden Lane II LLC, and Maiden Lane III LLC 0 61 75 12/30/08

Securities held outright* 191 1,570 1,570 09/16/09

U.S. Treasury securities 34 760 791 08/14/07

Agency securities 15 125 125 09/16/09

Agency mortgage-backed securities** 142 685 685 09/16/09

Memo: Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF) -3 0 236 10/01/08

Total liabilities 133 2,092 2,213 12/04/08

Selected liabilities:

Federal Reserve notes in circulation 2 874 877 09/09/09

Reserve balances of depository institutions 101 863 955 05/20/09

U.S. Treasury, general account 30 72 137 10/23/08

U.S. Treasury, supplemental financing account 0 200 559 10/22/08

Other deposits 0 0 53 04/14/09

Total capital 0 51 53 09/15/09

* Par value. Return to table

** Includes only mortgage-backed security purchases that have already settled. Over the intermeeting period, the Open Market Desk committed to purchase an additional $113 billion of MBS, onnet. Return to table

Chart 4Debt and Money

Figure: Bank credit

Line chart, February 2007 to August 2009. January 2008 = 100. Data are monthly averages. The series begins at about 90.8 and generally increases to about104.6 by November 2009. It then generally decreases to end at about 99.1.

Source. Federal Reserve.

Figure: C&I loan rate spreads

Line chart, 1997 to 2009:Q3. Unit is basis points. Data are quarterly. A vertical line indicates the NBER Peak in December 2007. The series begins at about 155and generally increases to about 189 by late 2002. It then generally decreases to about 137 by late 2005, and generally increases to about 148 by early 2008. Itthen generally decreases to about 139 by 2008, and generally increases to end at about 198. It is at about 143 at the time of the NBER peak.

Note. C&I loan rate spreads are the spread over market interest rate on an instrument of comparable maturity adjusted for changes in non-price loan characteristics. A shaded bar indicates aperiod of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER): March 2001-November 2001.

Source. Survey of Terms of Business Lending.

Growth of debt of nonfinancial sectorsPercent, s.a.a.r.

Total Business Household Government

2007 8.7 13.5 6.6 6.1

2008 6.0 5.4 0.3 17.5

Q1 5.4 7.8 3.0 6.7

Q2 3.3 6.4 0.3 4.4

Q3 8.2 5.1 -0.5 28.6

Q4 6.4 1.8 -1.7 26.7

2009

Q1 4.1 -0.2 -1.1 18.0

Q2 4.8 -1.8 -1.7 23.2

Q3p 4.1 -1.5 -0.3 17.0

Source. Flow of Funds.

p Projected. Return to table

Figure: Growth of debt of household sector

Line chart, by percent, 1991 to 2009:Q3. Data are quarterly, s.a.a.r. There are two series, "Consumer credit" and "Home mortgage". Consumer credit begins atabout 0 and generally decreases to about -2 by 1991. It then generally increases to about 16.5 by late 1994, and generally decreases to about 3 by early 1998. Itthen generally increases to about 12.5 by 1998, and generally decreases to about -6.5 by 2009. It then generally increases to end at about -5. Home mortgagebegins at about 8 and generally decreases to about 3.5 by 1991. It then fluctuates but generally increases to about 15.8 by 2003, and generally decreases to about-2.5 by 2008. It then generally increases to end at about 0.6.

Note. 2009:Q3 is projected.

Source. Flow of Funds, Federal Reserve G.19 release.

Figure: Changes in selected components of debt of nonfinancial business sector

Bar chart, by billions of dollars, 2006 to August 2009. Data are monthly rate. There are three series, "C&I loans", "Commercial paper", and "Bonds". There is also a"Sum" series presented as a line chart which sums the total of the other series. Approximate values are: 2006: Bonds 20, C&I loans 9, Commercial paper 1, Sum30. 2007: Bonds 27, C&I loans 21, Commercial paper 0, Sum 48. 2008:Q1: Bonds 16, C&I loans 26, Commercial paper 6, Sum 48. 2008:Q2: Bonds 30, C&I loans

12, Commercial paper -7, Sum 35. 2008:Q3: Bonds 9, C&I loans 14, Commercial paper 7, Sum 30. 2008:Q4: Bonds 18, C&I loans -6, Commercial paper 0.5, Sum12.5. 2009:Q1: Bonds 49, C&I loans -18, Commercial paper -12, Sum 19. 2009:Q2: Bonds 33, C&I loans -19, Commercial paper -11, Sum 3. July 2009: Bonds19, C&I loans -22, Commercial paper -3, Sum -6. August 2009: Bonds 20, C&I loans -38, Commercial paper -0.5, Sum -18.5.

Note. Commercial paper and C&I loans are seasonally adjusted, bonds are not.

Source. Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation, Thomson Financial, and Federal Reserve H.8 release.

Figure: Growth of M2

Bar chart, by percent, 2006 to August 2009. Data are s.a.a.r. The series begins at about 5.2 and generally increases to about 8.2. It then generally decreases toabout 4 by 2008:Q3, and generally increases to about 14.2 by 2008:Q4. It then generally decreases to end at about -7.2.

Source. Federal Reserve.

[Box:] Why Is Money Growth So Weak?

Figure: M2 Growth Rate

Line chart, by percent, 2006 to 2009:Q3. Data are s.a.a.r. There are two series, "Actual" and "Model prediction". Actual begins at about 6 and generally decreasesto about 3.5 by 2006. It then generally increases to about 8 by 2008, and generally decreases to about 4 by 2008. It then generally increases to about 14 by late2008, and generally decreases to end at about -2. Model prediction begins at about 4.8 and generally increases to about 13 by 2008. It then generally decreases toabout 1 by 2009, and generally increases to end at about 4.5.

Table 1: Growth of M2 and Major Components(percent, seasonally adjusted annual rate)

M2Liquid

Deposits1

Small Time

Deposits

Retail MMMF Currency

2008:Q1 8.4 6.9 2.0 30.7 -1.2

2008:Q2 5.6 6.8 -3.1 12.6 3.1

2008:Q3 4.0 3.2 11.6 -2.8 7.1

2008:Q4 14.3 9.8 35.5 9.3 13.7

2009:Q1 12.9 20.6 0.2 -7.6 16.0

2009:Q2 2.6 12.6 -16.3 -23.9 6.9

July - August 2009 -5.2 6.0 -29.6 -43.0 3.7

Memo: Level, August 2009 ($B)

8,298 5,317 1,218 899 858

1 Includes non-interest bearing transaction accounts (demand deposits), other checkable deposits, and savings accounts (including money market deposit accounts, or MMDAs). Return to table

Table 2: Growth of Commercial Bank Sources and Uses of Funds(percent, seasonally adjusted annual rate)

Sources Uses Memo: Total

Assets5M2

Deposits1Managed Liabilities2

All Other3 Loans Securities All

Other4

2008:Q1 3.9 11.9 25.1 12.4 0.5 20.6 11.3

2008:Q2 3.9 3.5 -9.3 1.5 1.2 6.2 0.9

2008:Q3 7.9 3.0 -6.4 2.3 7.3 9.3 3.1

2008:Q4 18.8 37.7 6.2 2.0 18.1 104.1 22.9

2009:Q1 14.5 -25.5 3.2 -7.1 -0.3 8.9 -2.6

2009:Q2 9.1 -15.2 -12.3 -6.6 6.4 -5.6 -3.8

July - August 2009 -0.3 -15.1 -33.6 -18.2 7.6 -14.2 -11.7

Memo: Level, August 2009 ($B)

5,653 3,890 2,264 6,886 2,315 2,798 11,807

1 Includes liquid and small time deposits at commercial banks. Based on weekly data reported on Wednesdays that exclude primary obligations. Return to table

2 Includes large time deposits, net due to related foreign offices, and nonbank borrowing (including from the Federal Reserve). Return to table

3 Includes borrowings from banks, some trading liabilities, and equity. Return to table

4 Includes interbank loans, cash (including reserve balances), trading assets, and other assets. Return to table

5 Unlike loans, total assets are net of banks' allowance for loan and lease losses, which currently stands at about $192 billion. Return to table

Chart 5International Financial Indicators

Figure: Nominal ten-year government bond yields

Line chart, by percent, 2007 to 2009. Data are daily. The August 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There are three series, "UK", "Germany", and"Japan". UK and Germany use one scale and Japan uses the other. UK begins at about 4.75 and generally increases to about 5.5 by mid-2007. It then generallydecreases to about 4.3 by early 2008, and generally increases to about 5.25 by mid-2008. It then generally decreases to about 4.4 by early 2008, then generallyincreases to about 5.3 by mid-2008, then generally decreases to about 3.0 by 2009, and generally increases to end at about 3.75. It is at about 3.74 at the time ofthe August 2009 FOMC meeting. Germany begins at about 4.0 and generally increases to about 4.7 by mid-2007. It then generally decreases to about 3.75 byearly 2008, and generally increases to about 4.7 by mid-2008. It then generally decreases to about 2.95 by early 2009, and generally increases to end at about 3.4.It is at about 3.45 at the time of the August 2009 FOMC meeting. Japan begins at about 1.7 and generally decreases to about 1.6 by 2007. It then generallyincreases to about 1.98 by mid-2007, and generally decreases to about 1.25 by early 2008. It then generally increases to about 1.9 by 2008, and generallydecreases to about 1.22 by late 2008. It then generally increases to about 1.52 by 2009, and generally decreases to end at about 1.28. It is at about 1.45 at thetime of the August 2009 FOMC meeting.

Source. Bloomberg.

Figure: Stock price indexes: Industrial countries

Line chart, 2007 to 2009. December 31, 2006 = 100. Data are daily. The August 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There are three series, "UK(FTSE-350)", "Euro Area (DJ Euro)", and "Japan (Topix)". UK begins at about 100 and generally increases to about 109 by 2007. It then generally decreases toabout 56 by early 2009, and generally increases to end at about 83. It is at about 76 at the time of the August 2009 FOMC meeting. Euro Area begins at about101 and generally increases to about 112 by 2007. It then generally decreases to about 43 by early 2009, and generally increases to end at about 69. It is at about63 at the time of the August 2009 FOMC meeting. Japan begins at about 100 and generally increases to about 109 by 2009. It then generally decreases to about69 by 2008, and generally increases to about 85 by 2008. It then generally decreases to about 41 by early 2009, and generally increases to end at about 56. It isat about 58 at the time of the August 2009 FOMC meeting.

Source. Bloomberg.

Figure: Stock price indexes: Emerging market economies

Line chart, 2007 to 2009. December 31, 2006 = 100. Data are daily. The August 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There are three series, "Brazil","Korea", and "Mexico". Brazil begins at about 100 and generally increases to about 162.5 by 2008. It then generally decreases to about 70 by late 2008, andgenerally increases to end at about 134. It is at about 125 at the time of the August 2009 FOMC meeting. Korea begins at about 100 and generally decreases toabout 90 by 2007. It then generally increases to about 140 by late 2007, and generally decreases to about 64 by late 2008. It then generally increases to end atabout 118. It is at about 110 at the time of the August 2009 FOMC meeting. Mexico begins at about 100 and generally increases to about 123 by late 2007. It thengenerally decreases to about 95 by early 2008, and generally increases to about 120 by 2008. It then generally decreases to about 63 by late 2008, and generallyincreases to end at about 112.5. It is at about 106 at the time of the August 2009 FOMC meeting.

Source. Bloomberg.

Figure: Nominal trade-weighted dollar indexes

Line chart, 2007 to 2009. December 31, 2006 = 100. Data are daily. The August 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There are three series, "Broad","Major Currencies", and "Other Important Trading Partners". Broad begins at about 100 and generally decreases to about 88.5 by 2008. It then generally increasesto about 107.5 by early 2009, and generally decreases to end at about 97.5. It is at about 97 at the time of the August 2009 FOMC meeting. Major Currenciesbegins at about 99.8 and generally increases to about 102 by 2007. It then generally decreases to about 85 by 2008, and generally increases to about 106 by early2009. It then generally decreases to end at about 92.5. It is at about 93.5 at the time of the August 2009 FOMC meeting. Other Important Trading Partners beginsat about 100 and generally decreases to about 91.5 by 2008. It then generally increases to about 110 by early 2009, and generally decreases to end at about102.5. It is at about 101.5 at the time of the August 2009 FOMC meeting.

Source. FRBNY and Bloomberg.

† Note: Data values for figures are rounded and may not sum to totals. Return to text


Accessible Material


Monetary Policy Strategies

Chart 6Equilibrium Real Federal Funds Rate

Figure: Short-Run Estimates with Confidence Intervals

Line chart, by percent, 1990 to 2009. There are five series, "The actual real funds rate based on lagged core inflation", "Greenbook-consistent measure (FRB/US)","Range of model-based estimates", "70 Percent confidence interval", and "90 Percent confidence interval". The actual real funds rate based on lagged core inflationbegins at about 4.5 and generally decreases to about 0 by 1992. It then generally increases to about 5 by 2000, and generally decreases to about -1 by 2004. Itthen generally increases to about 3 by 2007, and generally decreases to end at about -1.1. Greenbook-consistent measure begins at about 4.1 by 1997, andgenerally decreases to about 3.5 by 1998. It then generally increases to about 5.6 by 2000, and generally decreases to about 0 by 2003. It then generallyincreases to about 3.2 by 2007, and generally decreases to about -4 by early 2009. It then generally increases to end at about -2. The other 3 series closely trackeach other throughout the chart, with the 70 percent confidence interval being about 1 percent both lesser and greater than the Range of model-based estimates,and the 90 percent confidence interval being about 2 percent both lesser and greater than the Range of model-based estimates at any given point. The Range ofmodel-based estimates starts at between about 1 and 3.8, decreases to between about -0.5 and 1.9 by 1991, generally increases to between about 2.5 and 4.7 by1999, generally decreases to between about -5 and -1.8 by early 2009, and generally increases to between about -2.9 and -0.5.

Short-Run and Medium-Run Measures

Current Estimate Previous Bluebook

Short-Run Measures

Single-equation model -1.3 -2.4

Small structural model -1.1 -3.0

EDO model -0.3 -2.3

FRB/US model -2.4 -4.1

Confidence intervals for four model-based estimates

70 percent confidence interval -3.0 to 0.4


Greenbook-consistent measures

EDO model -3.1 -5.0

FRB/US model -1.9 -2.7

Medium-Run Measures

Single-equation model 1.3 1.2

Small structural model 1.3 1.5

Confidence intervals for two model-based estimates

70 percent confidence interval 0.4 to 2.2


TIPS-based factor model 2.0 2.0

Memo

Actual real federal funds rate -1.2 -1.5

Note: Appendix A provides background information regarding the construction of these measures and confidence intervals. The actual real federal funds rate shown is based on lagged coreinflation as a proxy for inflation expectation. For information regarding alternative measures, see Appendix A.

Chart 7Constrained vs. Unconstrained Monetary Policy (2 Percent Inflation Goal)

Figure: Nominal Federal Funds Rate

Line chart, by percent, 2009 to 2013. There are three series, "Current Bluebook: Constrained", "Current Bluebook: Unconstrained", and "Previous Bluebook:Unconstrained". Current Bluebook: Constrained begins at about 0.2 and generally increases to end at about 3. Current Bluebook: Unconstrained begins at about0.2 and generally decreases to about -4.8 by late 2010. It then generally increases to end at about 4.8. Previous Bluebook: Unconstrained begins at about 0.2 andgenerally decreases to about -6.2 by 2010. It then generally increases to end at about 5.

Figure: Real Federal Funds Rate

Line chart, by percent, 2009 to 2013. There are three series, "Current Bluebook: Constrained", "Current Bluebook: Unconstrained", and "Previous Bluebook:Unconstrained". Current Bluebook: Constrained begins at about -1.2 and generally increases to end at about 1.2. Current Bluebook: Unconstrained begins at about-1 and generally increases to about -1.2 by 2009. It then generally decreases to about -6.4 by 2010, and generally increases to end at about 2.9. PreviousBluebook: Unconstrained begins at about -1.2 and generally decreases to about -7.6 by 2010. It then generally increases to end at about 3.3.

Figure: Civilian Unemployment Rate

Line chart, by percent, 2009 to 2013. There are three series, "Current Bluebook: Constrained", "Current Bluebook: Unconstrained", and "Previous Bluebook:Unconstrained". Current Bluebook: Constrained begins at about 9.3 and generally increases to about 9.8 by 2009. It then generally decreases to end at about 3.6.Current Bluebook: Unconstrained begins at about 9.3 and generally increases to about 9.8 by 2009. It then generally decreases to end at about 4. PreviousBluebook: Unconstrained begins at about 9.3 and generally increases to about 9.8 by 2009. It then generally decreases to end at about 3.6.

Figure: Core PCE Inflation

Line chart, by percent, 2009 to 2013. Data are four-quarter averages. There are three series, "Current Bluebook: Constrained", "Current Bluebook: Unconstrained",and "Previous Bluebook: Unconstrained". Current Bluebook: Constrained begins at about 1.6 and generally decreases to about 1.3 by 2009. It then generallyincreases to about 1.5 by early 2010, generally decreases to about 1.18 by late 2011, and generally increases to end at about 1.8. Current Bluebook:Unconstrained begins at about 1.6 and generally decreases to about 1.4 by 2009. It then generally increases to end at about 2.0. Previous Bluebook:Unconstrained begins at about 1.6 and generally decreases to about 1.47 by 2009. It then generally increases to about 1.74 by early 2010, and generallydecreases to about 1.5 by 2010. It then generally increases to end at about 1.8.

Chart 8

The Policy Outlook in an Uncertain Environment

Figure: FRB/US Model Simulations of Estimated Outcome-Based Rule

Line chart, by percent, 2009 to 2013. There are three series, "Current Bluebook", "Previous Bluebook", and "Greenbook assumption". They begin at about 0.2 andtrack closely together until about 2011. Current Bluebook generally increases to end at about 4. Previous Bluebook generally increases to end at about 4.1.Greenbook assumption generally increases to end at about 3.8.

Note: There is dark and light shading that represents the 70 and 90 percent confidence intervals respectively. The 70 percent interval covers about 2.5 to 5.2 and the 90 percent interval coversabout 1.6 to 6 by 2013:Q4.

Figure: Information from Financial Markets

Line chart, by percent, 2009 to 2013. There are three series, "Current Bluebook", "Previous Bluebook", and "Greenbook assumption". They begin at about 0.2 andgenerally increase together to about 0.4 by early 2010. Current Bluebook generally increases to end at about 3.7. Previous Bluebook generally increases to end atabout 4.1.

Note: There is dark and light shading that represents the 70 and 90 percent confidence intervals respectively. The 90 percent interval covers about 1.3 to 6.9 and the 70 percent interval coversabout 1.8 to 5.3. In the previous Bluebook, the 90 percent interval covers about 1.4 to 7.2 and the 70 percent interval covers about 2 to 5.8.

Near-Term Prescriptions of Simple Policy Rules

Constrained Policy Unconstrained Policy

2009Q4 2010Q1 2009Q4 2010Q1

Taylor (1993) rule 0.13 0.13 -0.32 -0.24

Previous Bluebook 0.13 0.13 -0.84 -0.83

Taylor (1999) rule 0.13 0.13 -3.79 -3.62


First-difference rule 0.22 0.39 0.22 0.39


Estimated outcome-based rule 0.13 0.13 -0.40 -1.00


Estimated forecast-based rule 0.13 0.13 -0.44 -1.08


Memo

2009Q4 2010Q1

Greenbook assumption 0.13 0.13

Fed funds futures 0.16 0.23

Median expectation of primary dealers 0.13 0.13

Blue Chip forecast (September 1, 2009) 0.20 0.20

Note: In calculating the near-term prescriptions of these simple policy rules, policymakers' long-run inflation objective is assumed to be 2 percent. Appendix B provides further backgroundinformation.



Accessible Material

September 2009 Bluebook Tables and Charts

Policy Alternatives

Table 1: Overview of Alternative Language for the September 22-23, 2009 FOMC Announcement

August FOMCSeptember Alternatives

A B C

Forward Guidance on Funds Rate Path

"for an extended period"



"So long as inflation remains well contained …

until it has greater assurance that the

economic recovery will be

sustained"

Treasury Securities Purchases

Total Amount $300 billion $300 billion $300 billion $300 billion

Pace pace will "gradually slow"

----- ----- -----

Completion by the end of October

by the end of October



Agency MBS Purchases

Total Amount

"up to" $1.25 trillion

"a total of" $1.5 trillion

"up to" $1.25 trillion

"a total of about" $1 trillion

Pace ----- -----pace will

"gradually slow"pace will

"gradually slow"

Completion by the end of the yearthrough the

second quarter of 2010

by the end of the first quarter of 2010

OR in the second quarter of 2010

by the end of the year

Agency Debt Purchases

Total Amount

"up to" $200 billion



"a total of about" $150 billion

Pace ----- -----pace will

"gradually slow"pace will

"gradually slow"

Completion by the end of the year by the end of the year

by the end of the first quarter of 2010

OR in the second quarter of 2010

by the end of the year

Evaluation of LSAP Timing and Overall Amounts

adjustments to timing and amounts of

all LSAPs will continue

to be evaluated



to be evaluated



to be evaluated



to be evaluated


Accessible Material


Long-Run Projections of the Balance Sheet and Monetary Base

Balance Sheet Projections Summary

Alternative A Alternative B Alternative C

Total Assets

Peak month June 2010 June 2010 December 2009

Peak amount $2.6 trillion $2.4 trillion $2.2 trillion

December 2016 $1.6 trillion $1.4 trillion $1.4 trillion

Agency MBS

Total Purchased $1.5 trillion $1.25 trillion $1.0 trillion

December 2016 $0.9 trillion $0.7 trillion $0.5 trillion

Reserve Balances

Peak month June 2010 June 2010 December 2009

Peak amount $1.4 trillion $1.2 trillion $1.1 trillion

Growth Rates for Monetary Base

Date Baseline Alternative A Alternative CMemo: August baseline

Percent, annual rate

Monthly

Jun-09 -31.0 -31.0 -31.0 -31.0

Jul-09 -35.5 -35.5 -35.5 -16.4

Aug-09 6.4 6.4 6.4 96.8

Sep-09 38.5 47.8 47.8 116.4

Oct-09 109.1 125.8 106.9 59.7

Nov-09 94.2 107.5 74.2 57.6

Dec-09 27.1 40.3 9.3 80.2

Jan-10 -20.0 -7.3 -39.9 42.9

Feb-10 -30.7 -19.2 -54.5 8.6

Mar-10 -2.5 7.8 -26.3 29.9

Quarterly

Q2 2009 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4

Q3 2009 -11.5 -10.5 -10.5 23.9

Q4 2009 73.4 87.0 67.5 82.6

Q1 2010 1.8 14.1 -18.4 44.7

Q2 2010 7.5 18.2 -21.8 11.3

Q3 2010 9.6 14.2 -7.0 -2.6

Q4 2010 -6.9 -7.2 -6.3 -10.8

Annual - Q4 to Q4

2009 42.8 47.3 41.4 58.9

2010 3.0 10.1 -12.8 10.5

2011 -7.4 -7.3 -7.5 -7.7

2012 -11.6 -11.1 -12.7 -10.2

2013 -9.9 -9.5 -10.7 -7.1

2014 -9.8 -9.4 -2.9 -8.3

2015 -8.8 -8.5 0.9 -6.6

2016 1.1 -8.6 3.4 -8.7

Note: Not seasonally adjusted.

Baseline Scenario

Figure: Federal Reserve Assets

Stacked line chart, by billions of dollars, 2006 to 2016. There are nine series, "Treasury securities", "Repurchase agreements", "TALF", "Agency debt", "TAF","Other loans and facilities", "Agency MBS", "Central bank swaps", and "SDR and other assets". Approximate values of all series are given as of the beginning ofeach year. 2006: Treasury securities 750, Repurchase agreements 20, SDR and other assets 40. 2007: Treasury securities 760, Repurchase agreements 20, SDRand other assets 40. 2008: Treasury securities 730, Repurchase agreements 20, TAF 15, Central bank swaps 5, SDR and other assets 40. 2009: Treasurysecurities 495, Agency debt 10, Agency MBS 1, TAF 400, Central bank swaps 460, Other loans and facilities 440, SDR and other assets 10. 2010: Treasurysecurities 750, Agency debt 200, Agency MBS 810, TAF 5, Central bank swaps 5, TALF 65, Other loans and facilities 100, SDR and other assets 75. 2011:Treasury securities 750, Agency debt 100, Agency MBS 1140, TAF 5, TALF 75, Other loans and facilities 90, SDR and other assets 80. 2012: Treasury securities750, Agency debt 50, Agency MBS 500, TAF 5, TALF 60, Other loans and facilities 35, SDR and other assets 80. 2013: Treasury securities 700, Agency debt 25,Agency MBS 500, TAF 5, TALF 10, Other loans and facilities 10, SDR and other assets 80. 2014: Treasury securities 700, Agency debt 15, Agency MBS 500,TAF 5, TALF 5, Other loans and facilities 2, SDR and other assets 80. 2015: Treasury securities 600, Agency debt 10, Agency MBS 500, TAF 5, TALF 1, SDR andother assets 80. 2016: Treasury securities 550, Agency debt 4, Agency MBS 500, TAF 5, SDR and other assets 80.

Figure: Federal Reserve Liabilities and Capital

Stacked line chart, by billions of dollars, 2006 to 2016. There are six series, "Federal Reserve notes", "Deposits, other than reserve balances", "Other liabilities","Reverse repurchase agreements", "Reserve balances", and "Capital". Approximate values of all series are given as of the beginning of each year. 2006: FederalReserve notes 750, Reverse repurchase agreements 15, Reserve balances 10, Capital 20. 2007: Federal Reserve notes 750, Reverse repurchase agreements 20,Reserve balances 10, Capital 20. 2008: Federal Reserve notes 750, Reverse repurchase agreements 20, Reserve balances 10, Capital 20. 2009: FederalReserve notes 800, Reverse repurchase agreements 75, Deposits, other than reserve balances 200, Reserve balances 650, Capital 15. 2010: Federal Reservenotes 900, Reverse repurchase agreements 15, Deposits, other than reserve balances 250, Reserve balances 1100, Other liabilities 2, Capital 20. 2011: FederalReserve notes 950, Reverse repurchase agreements 15, Deposits, other than reserve balances 180, Reserve balances 1090, Other liabilities 2, Capital 20. 2012:Federal Reserve notes 980, Reverse repurchase agreements 15, Deposits, other than reserve balances 150, Reserve balances 850, Other liabilities 2, Capital 30.2013: Federal Reserve notes 1000, Reverse repurchase agreements 15, Deposits, other than reserve balances 150, Reserve balances 600, Other liabilities 2,Capital 50. 2014: Federal Reserve notes 1025, Reverse repurchase agreements 15, Deposits, other than reserve balances 150, Reserve balances 400, Otherliabilities 2, Capital 55. 2015: Federal Reserve notes 1100, Reverse repurchase agreements 15, Deposits, other than reserve balances 150, Reserve balances110, Other liabilities 2, Capital 100. 2016: Federal Reserve notes 1175, Reverse repurchase agreements 15, Deposits, other than reserve balances 150, Reservebalances 10, Other liabilities 2, Capital 120.

Source. Federal Reserve H.4.1 statistical release and staff calculations.

Alternative A


Stacked line chart, by billions of dollars, 2006 to 2016. There are nine series, "Treasury securities", "Repurchase agreements", "TALF", "Agency debt", "TAF","Other loans and facilities", "Agency MBS", "Central bank swaps", and "SDR and other assets". Approximate values of all series are given as of the beginning ofeach year. 2006: Treasury securities 750, Repurchase agreements 15, SDR and other assets 30. 2007: Treasury securities 760, Repurchase agreements 20, SDRand other assets 30. 2008: Treasury securities 735, Repurchase agreements 20, TAF 30, Central bank swaps 10, SDR and other assets 30. 2009: Treasurysecurities 490, Agency debt 15, Agency MBS 20, TAF 480, Central bank swaps 350, Other loans and facilities 350, SDR and other assets 20. 2010: Treasurysecurities 750, Agency debt 150, Agency MBS 1050, TAF 15, Central bank swaps 5, TALF 50, Other loans and facilities 50, SDR and other assets 50. 2011:Treasury securities 750, Agency debt 50, Agency MBS 1300, TAF 5, TALF 100, Other loans and facilities 50, SDR and other assets 100. 2012: Treasury securities750, Agency debt 30, Agency MBS 1200, TAF 5, TALF 100, Other loans and facilities 35, SDR and other assets 100. 2013: Treasury securities 700, Agency debt25, Agency MBS 1150, TAF 5, TALF 25, Other loans and facilities 15, SDR and other assets 100. 2014: Treasury securities 650, Agency debt 15, Agency MBS1000, TAF 5, TALF 6, Other loans and facilities 4, SDR and other assets 100. 2015: Treasury securities 600, Agency debt 10, Agency MBS 940, TAF 5, TALF 2,SDR and other assets 100. 2016: Treasury securities 600, Agency debt, 5, Agency MBS 900, TAF 5, SDR and other assets 100.


Stacked line chart, by billions of dollars, 2006 to 2016. There are six series, "Federal Reserve notes", "Deposits, other than reserve balances", "Other liabilities","Reverse repurchase agreements", "Reserve balances", and "Capital". Approximate values of all series are given as of the beginning of each year. 2006: FederalReserve notes 750, Reverse repurchase agreements 15, Reserve balances 10, Capital 10. 2007: Federal Reserve notes 750, Reverse repurchase agreements 20,Reserve balances 10, Capital 15. 2008: Federal Reserve notes 760, Reverse repurchase agreements 25, Reserve balances 10, Capital 20. 2009: FederalReserve notes 800, Reverse repurchase agreements 50, Deposits, other than reserve balances 190, Reserve balances 700, Capital 15. 2010: Federal Reservenotes 900, Reverse repurchase agreements 15, Deposits, other than reserve balances 170, Reserve balances 1090, Capital 15. 2011: Federal Reserve notes 940,Reverse repurchase agreements 15, Deposits, other than reserve balances 110, Reserve balances 1250, Other liabilities 2, Capital 25. 2012: Federal Reservenotes 950, Reverse repurchase agreements 15, Deposits, other than reserve balances 150, Reserve balances 1000, Other liabilities 2, Capital 40. 2013: FederalReserve notes 1000, Reverse repurchase agreements 15, Deposits, other than reserve balances 240, Reserve balances 725, Other liabilities 2, Capital 50. 2014:Federal Reserve notes 1050, Reverse repurchase agreements 15, Deposits, other than reserve balances 200, Reserve balances 500, Other liabilities 2, Capital60. 2015: Federal Reserve notes 1100, Reverse repurchase agreements 15, Deposits, other than reserve balances 250, Reserve balances 300, Other liabilities 2,Capital 80. 2016: Federal Reserve notes 1200, Reverse repurchase agreements 15, Deposits, other than reserve balances 200, Reserve balances 75, Otherliabilities 2, Capital 100.


Alternative C


Stacked line chart, by billions of dollars, 2006 to 2016. There are nine series, "Treasury securities", "Repurchase agreements", "TALF", "Agency debt", "TAF","Other loans and facilities", "Agency MBS", "Central bank swaps", and "SDR and other assets". Approximate values of all series are given as of the beginning ofeach year. 2006: Treasury securities 750, Repurchase agreements 20, SDR and other assets 45. 2007: Treasury securities 760, Repurchase agreements 20, SDRand other assets 45. 2008: Treasury securities 700, Repurchase agreements 20, TAF 20, Central bank swaps 10, SDR and other assets 45. 2009: Treasurysecurities 490, Agency debt 10, Agency MBS 150, TAF 400, Central bank swaps 350, Other loans and facilities 400, SDR and other assets 25. 2010: Treasurysecurities 750, Agency debt 200, Agency MBS 790, TAF 5, Central bank swaps 5, TALF 50, Other loans and facilities 50, SDR and other assets 45. 2011:Treasury securities 750, Agency debt 100, Agency MBS 700, TAF 5, TALF 100, Other loans and facilities 50, SDR and other assets 80. 2012: Treasury securities750, Agency debt 50, Agency MBS 700, TAF 5, TALF 75, Other loans and facilities 25, SDR and other assets 80. 2013: Treasury securities 680, Agency debt 25,Agency MBS 700, TAF 5, TALF 15, Other loans and facilities 15, SDR and other assets 100. 2014: Treasury securities 650, Agency debt 20, Agency MBS 630,TAF 5, TALF 5, Other loans and facilities 2, SDR and other assets 100. 2015: Treasury securities 650, Agency debt 10, Agency MBS 550, TAF 5, TALF 2, SDRand other assets 100. 2016: Treasury securities 650, Agency debt 5, Agency MBS 500.


Stacked line chart, by billions of dollars, 2006 to 2016. There are six series, "Federal Reserve notes", "Deposits, other than reserve balances", "Other liabilities","Reverse repurchase agreements", "Reserve balances", and "Capital". Approximate values of all series are given as of the beginning of each year. 2006: FederalReserve notes 750, Reverse repurchase agreements 15, Reserve balances 10, Capital 10. 2007: Federal Reserve notes 750, Reverse repurchase agreements 20,Reserve balances 10, Capital 15. 2008: Federal Reserve notes 750, Reverse repurchase agreements 25, Reserve balances 10, Capital 25. 2009: FederalReserve notes 800, Reverse repurchase agreements 50, Deposits, other than reserve balances 100, Reserve balances 600, Capital 15. 2010: Federal Reservenotes 900, Reverse repurchase agreements 15, Deposits, other than reserve balances 150, Reserve balances 850, Other liabilities 2, Capital 40. 2011: FederalReserve notes 950, Reverse repurchase agreements 15, Deposits, other than reserve balances 120, Reserve balances 700, Other liabilities 2, Capital 50. 2012:Federal Reserve notes 980, Reverse repurchase agreements 15, Deposits, other than reserve balances 120, Reserve balances 550, Other liabilities 2, Capital 60.2013: Federal Reserve notes 1000, Reverse repurchase agreements 15, Deposits, other than reserve balances 150, Reserve balances 250, Other liabilities 2,Capital 80. 2014: Federal Reserve notes 1050, Reverse repurchase agreements 15, Deposits, other than reserve balances 250, Reserve balances 150, Otherliabilities 2, Capital 100. 2015: Federal Reserve notes 1100. Reverse repurchase agreements 15, Deposits, other than reserve balances 50, Reserve balances 25,Other liabilities 2, Capital 150. 2016: Federal Reserve notes 1200, Reverse repurchase agreements 15, Deposits, other than reserve balances 1, Reservebalances 10, Other liabilities 2, Capital 200.




Accessible Material


Bank Credit, Debt, and Money Forecast

Growth Rates for M2

(percent, annual rate)

Greenbook Forecast*

Monthly Growth Rates

Jan-09 12.1

Feb-09 4.0

Mar-09 10.4

Apr-09 -7.6

May-09 9.1

Jun-09 3.6

Jul-09 -3.1

Aug-09 -7.3

Sep-09 0.8

Oct-09 -3.5

Nov-09 -3.2

Dec-09 -3.0

Jan-10 -2.1

Feb-10 -0.5

Mar-10 1.6

Apr-10 2.9

May-10 3.2

Jun-10 3.3

Jul-10 4.2

Aug-10 4.2

Sep-10 4.2

Quarterly Growth Rates

2009 Q1 12.9

2009 Q2 2.6

2009 Q3 -0.8

2009 Q4 -2.8

2010 Q1 -1.7

2010 Q2 2.3

2010 Q3 3.9

Annual Growth Rates

2008 8.3

2009 3.0

2010 2.2

Growth From To

Aug-09 Dec-09 -2.2

2008 Q3 2009 Q3 6.3

2009 Q3 2010 Q1 -1.8

* This forecast is consistent with nominal GDP and interest rates in the Greenbook forecast. Actual data through August 31, 2009; projections thereafter. Return to table


Accessible Material


Appendix A: Measures of the Equilibrium Real Rate

Measure Description

Single-equation

Model

The measure of the equilibrium real rate in the single-equation model is based on an estimated aggregate-demand relationship between the current value of theoutput gap and its lagged values as well as the lagged values of the real federal funds rate.

SmallStructural

Model

The small-scale model of the economy consists of equations for six variables: the output gap, the equity premium, the federal budget surplus, the trend growth rateof output, the real bond yield, and the real federal funds rate.

EDO Model Estimates of the equilibrium real rate using EDO--an estimated dynamic-stochastic-general-equilibrium (DSGE) model of the U.S. economy--depend on data formajor spending categories, price and wages, and the federal funds rate as well as the model's structure and estimate of the output gap.

FRB/USModel

Estimates of the equilibrium real rate using FRB/US--the staff's large-scale econometric model of the U.S. economy--depend on a very broad array of economicfactors, some of which take the form of projected values of the model's exogenous variables.

Greenbook-consistent

Two measures are presented--based on the FRB/US and the EDO models. Both models are matched to the extended Greenbook forecast. Model simulationsdetermine the value of the real federal funds rate that closes the output gap conditional on the extended baseline.

TIPS-basedFactorModel

Yields on TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) reflect investors' expectations of the future path of real interest rates. The TIPS-based measure of theequilibrium real rate is constructed using the seven-year-ahead instantaneous real forward rate derived from TIPS yields as of the Bluebook publication date. Thisforward rate is adjusted to remove estimates of the term and liquidity premiums based on a three-factor arbitrage-free term-structure model applied to TIPS yields,nominal yields, and inflation.

Proxy used for expected inflationActual real

federal funds rate (current value)

Greenbook-consistent measure of the equilibrium

real funds rate (current value)

Average actual real funds rate (twelve-quarter

average)

Lagged core inflation -1.2 -1.9 -0.8

Lagged headline inflation 0.8 -1.9 -0.7

Projected headline inflation -1.2 -2.0 -0.8


Accessible Material


Appendix C: Long-run Projections of the Balance Sheet and Monetary Base

Individual Balance Sheet Item Profiles

Note: All values are in billions of dollars.

Asset purchases and Federal Reserve liquidity programs and credit facilities

Figure: Temporary Holdings of Longer-term Treasuries

Line chart, 2009 to 2016. There are two series, "Current" and "August". They begin at about 0 and generally increase to about 300 by late 2009. Current generallydecreases to end at about 80, and August generally decreases to end at about 60.

Figure: Agency Debt

Line chart, 2009 to 2016. There are three series, "Alternative A & C", "Alternative B" and "August". Alternative A & C begins at about 120 by mid-2009 andgenerally increases to about 150 by early 2010. It then generally decreases to about 148 by 2010. Alternative B and August begin at about 20. Alternative Bgenerally increases to about 148 by 2010, and generally decreases to end at about 12. August generally increases to about 150 by early 2010, and generallydecreases to end at about 32.

Figure: Agency MBS

Line chart, 2009 to 2016. There are four series, "Alternative A", "Alternative B", "Alternative C", and "August". Alternative A begins at about 0, generally increases toabout 1380 by mid-2010, and generally decreases to end at about 900. Alternative B begins at about 0, generally increases to about 1150 by mid-2010, andgenerally decreases to end at about 720. Alternative C begins at about 0, generally increases to about 800 by 2010, and generally decreases to end at about 520.August begins at about 0, generally increases to about 1220 by 2010, and generally decreases to end at about 800.

Figure: TAF

Line chart, 2009 to 2016. There are two series, "Current" and "August". They begin at about 450 and generally increase to about 500 by 2009. They then generallydecrease to about 10 by early 2011 and remain constant until the end.

Figure: TALF

Line chart, 2009 to 2016. There are two series, "Current" and "August". Current begins at about 0, generally increases to about 1380 by mid-2010, generallydecreases to about 0 by late 2015, and remains constant until the end. August begins at about 0, generally increases to about 162 by mid-2010, generallydecreases to about 0 by late 2015, and remains constant until the end.

Figure: CPFF

Line chart, 2009 to 2016. There are two series, "Current" and "August". These two series track closely together throughout the chart. They begin at about 340 andgenerally decrease to about 0 by mid-2010. They then remain constant until the end.

Federal Reserve liabilities and capital

Figure: TGA and SFP

Line chart, 2009 to 2016. There are four series, "Current TGA", "August TGA", "Current SFP", and "August SFP". Current TGA begins at about 25 and generallyincreases to about 130 by 2009. It then generally decreases to about 0 by late 2010, and remains about constant until the end. August TGA begins at about 25and generally increases to about 135, and generally decreases to about 0 by late 2009. It then remains about constant until the end. Current SFP begins at about120 and generally increases to about 200 by 2009. It then generally decreases to about 15 by late 2009, generally increases to about 200 by 2010, remainsconstant until early 2016, and generally decreases to end at about 25. August SFP begins at about 200, generally decreases to about 0 by 2010, and remainsabout constant until the end.

Figure: Reserve Balances

Line chart, 2009 to 2016. There are four series, "Alternative A", "Alternative B", "Alternative C", and "August". Alternative A begins at about 890 and generallydecreases to about 650 by mid-2009. It then generally increases to about 1400 by mid-2010, and generally decreases to end at about 0. Alternative B begins atabout 890 and generally decreases to about 650 by mid-2009. It then generally increases to about 1400 by mid-2010, and generally decreases to end at about 0.Alternative C begins at about 890 and generally decreases to about 650 by 2009. It then generally increases to about 1100 by early 2010, and generally decreasesto end at about 0 by late 2015. It then remains about constant until the end. August begins at about 890 and generally decreases to about 650 by mid-2009. It thengenerally increases to about 1500 by 2010, and generally decreases to end at about 100.

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet: End-of-Year Projections -- Baseline Scenario

Aug 31, 2009

End-of-Year

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

$Billions

Total assets 2,081 2,243 2,316 2,171 1,949 1,805 1,667 1,567 1,439

Selected assets:

Liquidity programs for financial firms 309 185 21 21 21 21 21 21 21

Primary, secondary, and seasonal credit 33 30 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Term auction credit (TAF) 212 125 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Foreign central bank liquidity swaps 63 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility (AMLF) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Lending through other credit facilities 85 114 134 125 61 34 20 0 0

Net portfolio holdings of Commercial Paper Funding Facility (CPFF) 48 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) 37 86 134 125 61 34 20 0 0

Support for specific institutions 101 73 70 55 36 14 3 2 1

Credit extended to AIG 39 18 29 23 13 0 0 0 0

Net portfolio holdings of Maiden Lane LLC,Maiden Lane II LLC, and Maiden Lane III LLC 62 55 41 32 23 14 3 2 1

Securities held outright 1,492 1,768 1,983 1,860 1,721 1,626 1,513 1,434 1,307

U.S. Treasury securities 747 775 768 748 690 670 630 612 562

Agency securities 119 138 121 86 67 50 34 31 14

Agency mortgage-backed securities 625 855 1,094 1,026 964 906 849 791 731

Memo: TSLF 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Repurchase agreements 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Special drawing rights certificate account 2 5 10 12 12 12 12 12 12

Total liabilities 2,030 2,191 2,256 2,102 1,870 1,714 1,562 1,446 1,300

Selected liabilities

Federal Reserve notes in circulation 870 882 909 937 996 1,059 1,111 1,158 1,204

Reserve balances of depository institutions 783 1,180 1,098 916 624 406 203 39 25

U.S. Treasury, general account 93 70 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

U.S. Treasury, supplemental financing account 200 15 200 200 200 200 200 200 22

Total capital 52 52 60 69 79 91 105 120 138

Source: Federal Reserve H.4.1 statistical release and staff calculations.



Accessible Material

September 2009 Greenbook Part 1 Tables and Charts†

Domestic Developments

Key Background Factors Underlying the Baseline Staff Projection

Note: In each panel, shading represents the projection period, which begins in 2009:Q4, except where noted. In the upper-left panel that reports the federal fundsrate, the dashed line is not apparent because the paths of the federal funds rate in the August and current Greenbooks are the same.

Figure: Federal Funds Rate

Line chart, by percent, 2006 to 2011. Data are quarterly averages. There are three series, "Current Greenbook", "August Greenbook", and "Market forecast". Theytrack closely together throughout the chart. They begin at about 4.5 and generally increase to about 5.3 by mid-2006. They remain about constant until mid-2007.They then generally decrease to about 0.1 by mid-2009. Current Greenbook and August Greenbook remain at 0.1 to the end. Market forecast generally increasesto end at about 2.5.

Figure: Long-Term Interest Rates

Line chart, by percent, 2006 to 2011. Data are quarterly averages. There are six series, "BBB corporate rate", "Conforming mortgage rate" and "10-year Treasuryrate"; the August Greenbook is also marked separately for each series. BBB corporate rate and the August Greenbook begin at about 6, and generally increase toabout 9.5 by late 2008. BBB corporate rate generally decreases to end at about 6.2, and August Greenbook generally decreases to end at about 6.5 by late 2010.Conforming mortgage rate and the August Greenbook begins at about 6.2 and generally increases to about 6.6 by 2006. It then generally decreases to about 5 byearly 2009, and generally increases to end at about 5.5. August Greenbook generally increases to end at about 5.5 by 2010. 10-year Treasury rate and AugustGreenbook begins at about 4.7 and generally increases to about 5.2 by 2006. It then generally decreases to about 3.3 by early 2009, and generally increases toend at about 4.1. August Greenbook generally increases to end at about 4.1 by 2010.

Figure: Equity Prices

Line chart, 2006 to 2011. Data are quarter-end. 2006:Q1 = 100, ratio scale. There are two series, "Dow Jones Total Stock Market Index" and "August Greenbook".They begin at about 111 and generally decrease to about 108 by 2006. They then generally increases to about 130 by 2007, and generally decrease to about 68 byearly 2009. They track closely together, generally increasing until they reach about 82 by 2009. Dow Jones Total Stock Market Index generally increases to end atabout 128 and August Greenbook generally increases to end at about 107.

Figure: House Prices

Line chart, 2006 to 2011. 2005:Q2 = 100, ratio scale. Data are quarterly. There are two series, "LoanPerformance index" and "August Greenbook".LoanPerformance index begins at about 108 and generally decreases to about 75 by early 2009. It then generally increases to about 77 by 2009, and generallydecreases to end at about 75. August Greenbook begins at about 106 and generally decreases to end at about 73 by late 2010.

Note: The projection period begins in 2009:Q3.

Figure: Crude Oil Prices

Line chart, by dollars per barrel, 2006 to 2011. Data are quarterly averages. There are two series, "West Texas Intermediate" and "August Greenbook". They beginat about 73 and generally increase to about 70 by 2006. They then generally decrease to about 58 by early 2007, and generally increase to about 125 by 2008. Itthen generally decrease to about 45 by early 2009, and generally track together until the reach 70 by mid-2009. West Texas Intermediate generally increases toend at about 78 and August Greenbook generally increases to end at about 80 by 2010.

Figure: Broad Real Dollar

Line chart, 2006 to 2011. 2006:Q1 = 100. Data are quarterly averages. There are two series, "Broad Real Dollar" and "August Greenbook". They begin at about101 and generally decrease to about 87.5 by 2008. They then generally increase to about 99 by early 2009. Broad Real Dollar generally decreases to end at about87.5 and August Greenbook generally decreases to end at about 89.5 by late 2010.

[Box:] Revisions to the Staff Forecast of Residential House Prices

Figure: House Price Appreciation

Line chart, by percent, s.a.a.r., March 2009 to July 2009. Data are monthly. There are three series, "FHFA", "20-city S&P/Case-Shiller", and "LoanPerformace".Approximate values for each month are: March: FHFA -16, 10-city S&P/Case-Shiller -25, and LoanPerfomance -18. April: FHFA -5.5, 10-city S&P/Case-Shiller -10.5, and LoanPerfomance 5. May: FHFA 8, 10-city S&P/Case-Shiller 1, LoanPerfomance 17. June: FHFA 6, 10-city S&P/Case-Shiller 8, and LoanPerfomance 15.July: LoanPerfomance 12.

Note: For July, only LoanPerformance data are available.

Source: For FHFA, Federal Housing Finance Agency; for S&P/Case-Shiller, Standard & Poor's; for LoanPerformance, First American CoreLogic.

Figure: RPX Futures Price for Oct. 2010 Contract

Line chart, by price per square foot, in dollars, May 2008 to September 15, 2009. Data are business daily. The series begins at about 208 and generally increasesto about 210 by late May. It then generally decreases to about 135 by April 2009, and generally increases to end at about 191.

Source: RadarLogic.

Figure: Home Value Expectations over Next Year

Line chart, by percent, March 2007 to September 2009. Data are monthly. There are two series, "Decrease" and "Increase". "Decrease" begins at about 12 andgenerally increases to about 27 by May 2008. It then generally decreases to about 18 by September 2008, and generally increases to about 28 by February 2009.It then generally decreases to end at about 15. "Increase" begins at about 41 and generally decreases to about 7.5 by late February 2009. It then generallyincreases to end at about 23.

Source: Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

Figure: House Prices

Line chart, 2002 to 2012. 2005:Q2=100. Data are quarterly. There are two series, "Current" and "Previous". Current begins at about 61 and generally increases toabout 105 by early 2007. It then generally decreases to end at about 72. Previous begins at about 64 and generally increases to about 103 by early 2006. It thengenerally decreases to end at about 69.

Note: Shading indicates that the projection period begins in 2009:Q3.

Source: First American CoreLogic.

Figure: Over/Under Valuation of Single-Family Homes

Line chart, by percent, 1988 to 2012. Data are quarterly. There are two series, "Current" and "Previous". They begin at about 4 and generally increase to about 9by early 1989. They then generally decrease to about -5 by 1997, and track closely together until about early 2002 when they reach about 9. Current generallyincreases to about 42 by early 2006, and generally decreases to end at about -19. Previous generally increases to about 37 by late 2005, and generally decreasesto end at about -28.

Note: Shading indicates that the projection period begins in 2009:Q3.

Source: First American CoreLogic.

Change in House PricesPercent change at annual rate from end of preceding period

20092010 2011

Q2 H2

Current 12.3 -1.2 -2.8 0.6

Aug. GB -4.0 -11.0 -7.3 -1.5

Summary of the Near-Term Outlook

(Percent change at annual rate except as noted)

Measure

2009:Q2 2009:Q3 2009:Q4

Aug. GB

Sept. GB

Aug. GB

Sept. GB

Aug. GB

Sept. GB

Real GDP -1.5 -1.0 .8 2.5 1.7 3.2

Private domestic final purchases -3.5 -2.8 -1.0 1.6 -.7 -.5

Personal consumption expenditures -1.2 -.9 .9 2.3 1.2 .8

Residential investment -30.1 -22.9 -9.8 3.0 -6.8 4.0

Business fixed investment -10.7 -10.3 -11.9 -3.8 -12.5 -11.3

Government outlays for consumption and investment 6.1 6.5 2.9 1.8 3.2 4.3

Contribution to growth (percentage points)

Inventory investment -.9 -1.5 1.4 1.0 1.5 2.8

Net exports 1.1 1.6 -.3 -.2 .1 -.1

Projections of Real GDP

(Percent change at annual rate from end of preceding period except as noted)

Measure2009

2010 2011H1 H2

Real GDP -3.8 2.8 3.5 4.5

Previous Greenbook -4.0 1.2 3.1

Final sales -1.8 .9 2.9 4.1

Previous Greenbook -2.3 -.2 2.6

Personal consumption expenditures -.2 1.6 2.9 3.6

Previous Greenbook -.3 1.0 2.6

Residential investment -31.0 3.5 12.9 25.3

Previous Greenbook -34.3 -8.3 9.3

Business fixed investment -26.1 -7.6 5.0 9.9


Government purchases 1.9 3.1 1.6 1.0

Previous Greenbook 1.7 3.1 1.6

Exports -18.2 14.3 8.2 8.6


Imports -26.3 12.7 8.0 8.0



Inventory change -1.9 1.9 .6 .4

Previous Greenbook -1.6 1.4 .5

Net exports 2.1 -.2 -.2 -.2

Previous Greenbook 1.9 -.1 -.1

[Box:] The NAIRU in the Staff Projection

Figure: Unemployed permanent job losers

Line chart, by percent of labor force, 2008 to mid-2009. The series begins at about 1.8 and generally increases to end at about 5.3.

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure: Beveridge curve

Scatterplot, by staff composite help-wanted index on the y-axis, from 60 to 150, and unemployment rate on the x-axis, from 3.0 to 9.5. There are four series, "2001to 2008", "2009:Q1", "2009:Q2", and "2009:Q3". Values from 2001 to 2008 show a clear trend of the unemployment rate increasing and the staff composite help-wanted index decreasing. Most of the 2001-2008 values fall between the ranges of unemployment rate from about 4.3 to 6 and staff composite help-wanted indexfrom about 132 to 90. 2009:Q1 is marked at about 74 for staff composite help-wanted index and 7.7 for unemployment rate. 2009:Q2 is marked at about 71 forstaff composite help-wanted index and 8.8 for unemployment rate. 2009:Q3 (the average of July and August) is marked at about 77 for staff composite help-wanted index and 9.0 for unemployment rate.

Note: The unemployment rate is adjusted to remove the staff estimate of the influence of the Emergency Unemployment Compensation program.

Source: For unemployment rate, U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; for help-wanted index, Conference Board and staff calculations.

Decomposition of Structural Labor Productivity

Nonfarm Business Sector(Percent change, Q4 to Q4, except as noted)

Measure 1974-95 1996-2000 2001-07 2008 2009 2010 2011

Structural labor productivity 1.5 2.5 2.8 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.9

Previous Greenbook 1.5 2.5 2.8 2.0 1.6 1.6

Contributions1

Capital deepening .7 1.4 .7 .5 .0 -.1 .4

Previous Greenbook .7 1.4 .7 .5 -.2 -.1

Multifactor productivity .5 .7 1.6 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.4

Previous Greenbook .5 .7 1.6 1.3 1.6 1.5

Labor composition .3 .3 .3 .2 .2 .1 .1

MEMO

Potential GDP 3.0 3.4 2.8 2.4 2.0 2.1 2.3

Previous Greenbook 3.0 3.4 2.8 2.4 2.0 2.0

Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding. For multiyear periods, the percent change is the annual average from Q4 of the year preceding the first year shown to Q4 of thelast year shown.

1. Percentage points. Return to table

The Outlook for the Labor Market

(Percent change, Q4 to Q4, except as noted)

Measure 2008 2009 2010 2011

Output per hour, nonfarm business .9 3.7 1.3 1.4


Nonfarm private payroll employment -2.1 -4.1 2.1 3.3


Household survey employment -1.5 -3.0 1.7 2.3


Labor force participation rate1 65.9 65.5 65.4 65.3


Civilian unemployment rate1 6.9 9.9 9.2 7.9


MEMO

GDP gap2 -4.6 -6.9 -5.6 -3.6

Previous Greenbook -4.6 -7.8 -6.8

1. Percent, average for the fourth quarter. Return to table

2. Actual less potential GDP in the fourth quarter of the year indicated as a percent of potential GDP. A negative number thus indicates that the economy is operating below potential. Return totable

Inflation Projections


Measure 2008 2009 2010 2011

PCE chain-weighted price index 1.7 1.0 1.3 1.0


Food and beverages 6.8 -1.1 1.5 .7

Previous Greenbook 6.8 -.3 1.6

Energy -9.1 -2.4 5.0 2.1


Excluding food and energy 2.0 1.4 1.1 1.0


Consumer price index 1.5 1.1 1.5 1.1


Excluding food and energy 2.0 1.7 1.2 1.1


GDP chain-weighted price index 1.9 .9 1.2 1.1


ECI for compensation of private industry workers1 2.4 1.2 1.8 2.0


Compensation per hour, nonfarm business sector 2.6 -.3 1.8 2.1

Previous Greenbook 2.6 -.4 1.2

Prices of core goods imports2 3.8 -1.4 1.3 1.0

Previous Greenbook 3.8 -1.6 1.2

1. December to December. Return to table

2. Core goods imports exclude computers, semiconductors, oil, and natural gas. Return to table

The Long-Term Outlook


Measure 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Real GDP -.5 3.5 4.5 4.9 4.3 2.8

Civilian unemployment rate1 9.9 9.2 7.9 5.9 4.7 4.6

PCE prices, total 1.0 1.3 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.7

Core PCE prices 1.4 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.7

Federal funds rate1 .1 .1 .1 2.4 3.8 4.1

1. Percent, average for the final quarter of the period. Return to table

Alternative Scenarios

(Percent change, annual rate, from end of preceding period except as noted)

Measure and scenario2009

2010 2011 2012 2013-14H2

Real GDP

Extended Greenbook baseline 2.8 3.5 4.5 4.9 3.5

V-shaped recovery 4.0 5.0 5.4 4.6 2.8

Earlier liftoff 4.0 5.3 5.2 4.0 2.4

Higher saving rate 1.6 .9 4.1 4.8 4.3

Greater financial headwinds 1.3 .8 4.2 5.3 4.7

Greater disinflation 2.8 3.4 4.2 4.9 4.2

Labor market damage 2.5 2.6 4.3 5.8 3.8

Unemployment rate1




Higher saving rate 10.0 10.4 9.3 7.3 5.2

Greater financial headwinds 10.1 10.4 9.3 7.1 4.7

Greater disinflation 9.9 9.2 8.0 6.1 4.2


Core PCE inflation




Higher saving rate 1.3 .9 .5 .6 1.0

Greater financial headwinds 1.3 .9 .5 .7 1.2

Greater disinflation 1.0 .4 .1 -.1 .0


Federal funds rate1

Extended Greenbook baseline .1 .1 .1 2.4 4.1

V-shaped recovery .1 .1 1.0 3.2 4.4

Earlier liftoff .1 .6 2.4 4.6 5.5

Higher saving rate .1 .1 .1 .2 2.6

Greater financial headwinds .1 .1 .1 .6 3.5

Greater disinflation .1 .1 .1 .5 2.4

Labor market damage .1 .1 .3 3.0 4.9

1. Percent, average for the final quarter of the period. Return to table

Selected Greenbook Projections and 70 Percent Confidence Intervals Derived from Historical Greenbook ForecastErrors and FRB/US Simulations

Measure 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Real GDP (percent change, Q4 to Q4)

Projection -.5 3.5 4.5 4.9 4.3 2.8

Confidence interval

Greenbook forecast errors -1.4±.3 1.7±5.3 2.8±6.3 … … …

FRB/US stochastic simulations -1.2±.1 2.2±5.2 2.7±6.2 2.6±6.5 2.5±6.5 1.0±4.9

Civilian unemployment rate (percent, Q4)

Projection 9.9 9.2 7.9 5.9 4.7 4.6

Confidence interval

Greenbook forecast errors 9.5±10.2 8.4±10.0 6.8±9.0 … … …

FRB/US stochastic simulations 9.6±10.1 8.4±9.8 7.0±8.8 5.1±7.0 3.9±5.6 3.7±5.4

PCE prices, total (percent change, Q4 to Q4)

Projection 1.0 1.3 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.7

Confidence interval

Greenbook forecast errors .5±1.5 .2±2.4 -.3±2.3 … … …

FRB/US stochastic simulations .7±1.4 .5±2.3 .0±2.1 .1±2.2 .5±2.5 .7±2.8

PCE prices excluding food and energy (percent change, Q4 to Q4)

Projection 1.4 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.7

Confidence interval

Greenbook forecast errors 1.1±1.8 .4±1.8 .0±2.0 … … …

FRB/US stochastic simulations 1.2±1.7 .4±1.8 .2±1.8 .3±1.9 .7±2.3 .9±2.6

Federal funds rate (percent, Q4)

Projection .1 .1 .1 2.4 3.8 4.1

Confidence interval

FRB/US stochastic simulations .1±.1 .1±.2 .1±2.4 .1±4.2 2.1±5.6 2.5±5.9

Notes: Shocks underlying FRB/US stochastic simulations are randomly drawn from the 1969-2008 set of model equation residuals.

Intervals derived from Greenbook forecast errors are based on projections made from 1979-2008, except for PCE prices excluding food and energy, where the sample is 1981-2008.

… Not applicable. The Greenbook forecast horizon has typically extended about two years. Return to table

Forecast Confidence Intervals and Alternative Scenarios

Confidence Intervals Based on FRB/US Stochastic Simulations

Figure: Real GDP

Line chart, by 4-quarter percent change, 2007 to 2014. There are seven series, "Extended Greenbook baseline", "V-shaped recovery", "Earlier liftoff", "Highersaving rate", "Greater financial headwinds", "Greater disinflation", and "Labor market damage". They begin at about 2 and generally decrease to about 1.5 by 2007.They then generally increase to about 2.7 by mid-2007, and generally decrease to about -4 by 2009. Extended Greenbook baseline generally increases to about 5by early 2013, and generally decreases to end at about 2.8. V-shaped recovery generally increases to about 5.6 by mid-2011, and generally decreases to end atabout 2. Earlier liftoff generally increases to about 5.8 by 2011, and generally decreases to end at about 1.8. Higher saving rate generally increases to about 5.4 by2013, and generally decreases to end at about 3.6. Greater financial headwinds generally increases to about 5.8 by 2013, and generally decreases to end at about4. Greater disinflation generally increases to about 5.5 by 2013, and generally decreases to end at about 3.6. Labor market damage generally increases to about6.4 by early 2013, and generally decreases to end at about 2.7. There is a 90 percent confidence interval shown, which ranges from about 0 to 6.1 and a 70percent confidence interval, which ranges from about 1 to 5.

Figure: Unemployment Rate

Line chart, by percent, 2007 to 2014. There are seven series, "Extended Greenbook baseline", "V-shaped recovery", "Earlier liftoff", "Higher saving rate", "Greaterfinancial headwinds", "Greater disinflation", and "Labor market damage". They begin at about 4.5 and generally increase together until they reach about 9.7 by2009. Extended Greenbook baseline generally increases to about 9.85 by late 2009, and generally decreases to end at about 4.6. V-shaped recovery generallyincreases to about 9.75 by 2009, and generally decreases to end at about 4.5. Earlier liftoff generally increases to about 9.75 by 2009, generally decreases to about4.75 by 2013, and generally increases to end at about 5.0. Higher saving rate generally increases to about 10.48 by 2010, and generally decreases to end at about5.25. Greater financial headwinds generally increases to about 10.3 by 2010, and generally decreases to end at about 4.7. Greater disinflation generally increasesto about 9.8 by late 2009, and generally decreases to end at about 4.2. Labor market damage generally increases to about 10.3 by 2010, and generally decreasesto end at about 4.3. There is a 90 percent confidence interval shown, which ranges from about 3.25 to 5.8 and a 70 percent confidence interval, which ranges fromabout 3.75 to 5.4.

Figure: PCE Prices excluding Food and Energy

Line chart, by 4-quarter percent change, 2007 to 2014. There are seven series, "Extended Greenbook baseline", "V-shaped recovery", "Earlier liftoff", "Highersaving rate", "Greater financial headwinds", "Greater disinflation", and "Labor market damage". They begin at about 2.45 and generally decrease to about 2.25 by2007. They then generally increase to about 2.65 by 2008, and generally decrease together until they reach about 1.35 by 2009. Extended Greenbook baselinegenerally increases to about 1.45 by late 2009, generally decreases to about 1.0 by late 2011, and generally increases to end at about 1.72. V-shaped recoverygenerally increases to about 1.45 by late 2009, generally decreases 0.98 by early 2012, and generally increases to end at about 1.8. Earlier liftoff generallydecreases to about 1.28 by 2010, and generally increases to end at about 3.0. Higher saving rate generally decreases to about 0.48 by early 2012, and generallyincreases to end at about 1.1. Greater financial headwinds generally decreases to about 0.5 by early 2012, and generally increases to end at about 1.3. Greaterdisinflation generally decreases to about -0.15 by 2012, and generally increases to end at about 0.2. Labor market damage generally decreases to about 1.1 by late2010, and generally increases to end at about 2.1. There is a 90 percent confidence interval shown, which ranges from about 0.45 to 3.08 and a 70 percentconfidence interval, which ranges from about 0.9 to 2.55.

Figure: Federal Funds Rate

Line chart, by percent, 2007 to 2014. There are seven series, "Extended Greenbook baseline", "V-shaped recovery", "Earlier liftoff", "Higher saving rate", "Greaterfinancial headwinds", "Greater disinflation", and "Labor market damage". They begin at about 5.2 and generally decrease to about 0.2 by 2010. ExtendedGreenbook baseline remains about constant until late 2011, and generally increases to end at about 4.1. V-shaped recovery generally increases to end at about4.4. Earlier liftoff generally increases to about 5.7 by late 2013, and generally decreases to end at about 5.6. Higher saving rate remains about constant until 2012,and generally increases to end at about 2.6. Great financial headwinds remains about constant until 2012, and generally increases to end at about 3.5. Greaterdisinflation remains about constant until late 2012, and generally increases to end at about 2.4. Labor market damage remains about constant until 2011, and

generally increases to end at about .8. There is a 90 percent confidence interval shown, which ranges from 1.4 to 7 and a 70 percent confidence interval, whichranges from about 2.6 to 5.9.

Evolution of the Staff Forecast

Figure: Change in Real GDP

Line chart, by percent, Q4/Q4, January 24, 2007 to September 16, 2009. There are three series, "2008", "2009", and "2010". 2008 begins at about 2.5 andgenerally decreases to about 0.1 by March 13, 2008. It then generally increases to about 1.5 by September 10, 2008, and generally decreases to end at about -2.0. 2009 begins at about 2.2 by September 12, 2007, and generally increases to about 3.0 by March 12, 2008. It then generally decreases to about -2.25 byMarch 12, 2009, and generally increases to end at about -0.5. 2010 begins at about 2.7 by September 10, 2008, and generally decreases to about 1.5 by March12, 2009. It then generally increases to end at about 3.5. 2011 is marked at about 4.5.


Line chart, by percent, fourth quarter, January 24, 2007 to September 16, 2009. There are three series, "2008", "2009" and "2010". 2008 begins at about 4.9 andgenerally increases to about 5.15 by March 14, 2007. It then generally decreases to about 4.8 by June 20, 2007, and generally increases to end at about 6.9. 2009begins at about 4.9 by September 12, 2007 and generally increases to end at about 9.9. 2010 begins at about 5.85 by September 10, 2008, and generallyincreases to about 9.75 by June 17, 2009. It then generally decreases to end at about 9.25. 2011 is marked at about 8.0.

Figure: Change in PCE Prices excluding Food and Energy

Line chart, by percent, Q4/Q4, January 24, 2007 to September 16, 2009. There are three series, "2008", "2009", and "2010". 2008 begins at about 2.0 andgenerally increases to about 2.1 by May 2, 2007. It then generally decreases to about 1.9 by September 12, 2007, and generally increases to about 2.4 bySeptember 10, 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 2.0. 2009 begins at about 1.9 by September 12, 2007, and generally increases to about 2.25 byJune 18, 2008. It then generally decreases to about 1.0 by January 22, 2009, and generally increases to end at about 1.4. 2010 begins at about 1.9 by September10, 2008, and generally decreases to about 0.5 by March 12, 2009. It then generally increases to end at about 1.1. 2011 is marked at about 1.0.

Note: Because the core PCE price index was redefined as part of the comprehensive revisions to the NIPA, projections prior to the August 2009 Greenbook are not strictly comparable with morerecent projections.

Changes in GDP, Prices, and Unemployment

(Percent, annual rate except as noted)

IntervalNominal GDP Real GDP PCE price index Core PCE price index Unemployment rate1

08/06/09 09/16/09 08/06/09 09/16/09 08/06/09 09/16/09 08/06/09 09/16/09 08/06/09 09/16/09

Quarterly

2009: Q1 -4.6 -4.6 -6.4 -6.4 -1.5 -1.5 1.1 1.1 8.1 8.1

Q2 -1.2 -1.0 -1.5 -1.0 1.3 1.3 2.0 2.0 9.2 9.2

Q3 1.6 3.1 .8 2.5 2.4 2.9 1.2 1.5 9.8 9.6

Q4 2.9 4.2 1.7 3.2 2.2 1.4 1.2 1.2 10.0 9.9

2010: Q1 3.7 4.3 2.5 2.8 1.5 1.4 1.0 1.1 10.0 9.8

Q2 4.2 4.4 3.0 3.2 1.3 1.4 1.0 1.1 9.9 9.6

Q3 4.6 5.0 3.4 3.8 1.1 1.3 1.0 1.1 9.8 9.4

Q4 4.6 5.3 3.6 4.2 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.1 9.6 9.2

2011: Q1 … 5.6 … 4.4 … 1.1 … 1.0 … 8.8

Q2 … 5.6 … 4.5 … 1.0 … 1.0 … 8.5

Q3 … 5.6 … 4.6 … 1.0 … 1.0 … 8.2

Q4 … 5.6 … 4.6 … 1.0 … 1.0 … 7.9

Two-quarter2

2009: Q2 -3.0 -2.9 -4.0 -3.8 -.1 -.1 1.6 1.6 2.3 2.3

Q4 2.2 3.7 1.2 2.8 2.3 2.1 1.2 1.3 .8 .7

2010: Q2 4.0 4.4 2.8 3.0 1.4 1.4 1.0 1.1 -.1 -.3

Q4 4.6 5.1 3.5 4.0 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.1 -.3 -.4

2011: Q2 … 5.6 … 4.4 … 1.0 … 1.0 … -.7

Q4 … 5.6 … 4.6 … 1.0 … 1.0 … -.6

Four-quarter3

2008:Q4 .1 .1 -1.9 -1.9 1.7 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1

2009:Q4 -.4 .4 -1.4 -.5 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.4 3.1 3.0

2010:Q4 4.3 4.7 3.1 3.5 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.1 -.4 -.7

2011:Q4 … 5.6 … 4.5 … 1.0 … 1.0 … -1.3

Annual

2008 2.6 2.6 .4 .4 3.3 3.3 2.4 2.4 5.8 5.8

2009 -1.7 -1.4 -3.0 -2.6 .1 .2 1.5 1.5 9.3 9.2

2010 3.2 4.0 2.2 2.9 1.6 1.5 1.1 1.2 9.8 9.5

2011 … 5.4 … 4.3 … 1.1 … 1.0 … 8.4

1. Level, except for two-quarter and four-quarter intervals. Return to table

2. Percent change from two quarters earlier; for unemployment rate, change is in percentage points. Return to table

3. Percent change from four quarters earlier; for unemployment rate, change is in percentage points. Return to table

Changes in Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Items


Item2009 2010 2011

2009 1 2010 1 2011 1Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Real GDP -6.4 -1.0 2.5 3.2 2.8 3.2 3.8 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.6 -.5 3.5 4.5

Previous Greenbook -6.4 -1.5 .8 1.7 2.5 3.0 3.4 3.6 … … … … -1.4 3.1 …

Final sales -4.1 .5 1.5 .3 2.2 3.1 2.9 3.4 3.6 4.1 4.2 4.6 -.5 2.9 4.1

Previous Greenbook -4.1 -.5 -.5 .2 1.8 2.6 2.9 3.3 … … … … -1.3 2.6 …

Priv. dom. final purch. -7.2 -2.8 1.6 -.5 2.3 3.3 3.7 4.3 4.4 4.9 5.0 5.4 -2.3 3.4 5.0

Previous Greenbook -7.2 -3.5 -1.0 -.7 1.5 2.7 3.4 4.1 … … … … -3.1 2.9 …

Personal cons. expend. .6 -.9 2.3 .8 2.5 2.8 2.9 3.3 3.3 3.6 3.6 3.8 .7 2.9 3.6

Previous Greenbook .6 -1.2 .9 1.2 2.1 2.4 2.8 3.2 … … … … .4 2.6 …

Durables 3.9 -5.5 15.9 -7.0 10.0 9.9 7.5 10.7 9.8 11.9 11.5 13.0 1.4 9.5 11.6

Nondurables 1.9 -2.1 .6 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.7 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 .6 2.5 3.1

Services -.3 .2 .9 1.7 1.6 1.9 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.6 .6 2.0 2.5

Residential investment -38.2 -22.9 3.0 4.0 7.0 12.4 15.4 17.0 20.2 23.9 26.8 30.5 -15.5 12.9 25.3

Previous Greenbook -38.2 -30.1 -9.8 -6.8 -3.1 10.4 13.0 18.1 … … … … -22.4 9.3 …

Business fixed invest. -39.2 -10.3 -3.8 -11.3 -.3 4.8 7.2 8.7 9.2 10.3 9.8 10.3 -17.4 5.0 9.9

Previous Greenbook -39.2 -10.7 -11.9 -12.5 -2.3 2.8 6.0 8.0 … … … … -19.5 3.5 …

Equipment & software -36.4 -6.2 4.8 -3.0 5.2 10.2 11.8 12.3 12.8 15.0 14.4 14.9 -11.7 9.8 14.3

Previous Greenbook -36.4 -8.3 -5.7 -4.2 2.7 7.7 10.5 12.0 … … … … -14.8 8.2 …

Nonres. structures -43.6 -17.1 -18.0 -25.9 -11.0 -5.9 -2.3 .7 1.1 -.2 -.9 -.8 -27.0 -4.7 -.2

Previous Greenbook -43.6 -14.6 -22.1 -26.6 -11.6 -6.8 -3.2 -.6 … … … … -27.6 -5.7 …

Net exports2 -386 -332 -339 -342 -351 -351 -359 -367 -374 -379 -385 -387 -350 -357 -381

Previous Greenbook2 -386 -347 -357 -355 -357 -358 -362 -364 … … … … -362 -360 …

Exports -29.9 -4.6 20.9 8.1 7.4 7.9 8.4 8.9 8.6 8.4 8.3 9.0 -3.3 8.2 8.6

Imports -36.4 -14.8 18.4 7.2 8.1 6.4 8.7 8.9 8.6 7.8 8.0 7.6 -8.9 8.0 8.0

Gov't. cons. & invest. -2.6 6.5 1.8 4.3 3.1 2.0 .7 .6 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.5 1.6 1.0

Previous Greenbook -2.6 6.1 2.9 3.2 3.3 2.1 .7 .5 … … … … 2.4 1.6 …

Federal -4.3 11.0 3.5 9.6 6.2 3.5 .1 -.2 .8 .9 .8 .8 4.8 2.4 .8

Defense -5.1 13.3 2.7 10.2 3.5 2.2 1.3 .7 .0 .1 -.1 .0 5.0 1.9 .0

Nondefense -2.5 6.2 5.3 8.3 12.0 6.2 -2.2 -2.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 4.2 3.3 2.5

State & local -1.5 3.8 .7 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1

Change in bus. inventories2 -114 -165 -134 -45 -25 -20 7 33 58 71 85 87 -114 -1 75

Previous Greenbook2 -114 -145 -103 -55 -32 -18 0 8 … … … … -104 -10 …

Nonfarm2 -115 -169 -138 -48 -28 -23 4 30 55 69 83 85 -117 -4 73

Farm2 0 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

1. Change from fourth quarter of previous year to fourth quarter of year indicated. Return to table

2. Billions of chained (2005) dollars. Return to table

Changes in Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Items

(Change from fourth quarter of previous year to fourth quarter of year indicated, unless otherwise noted)

Item 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Real GDP 3.8 3.1 2.7 2.4 2.5 -1.9 -.5 3.5 4.5

Previous Greenbook 3.8 3.1 2.7 2.4 2.5 -1.9 -1.4 3.1 …

Final sales 3.8 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.7 -1.4 -.5 2.9 4.1


Priv. dom. final purch. 4.2 4.2 3.1 2.5 1.4 -3.2 -2.3 3.4 5.0


Personal cons. expend. 3.4 3.5 2.7 3.3 2.0 -1.8 .7 2.9 3.6

Previous Greenbook 3.4 3.5 2.7 3.3 2.0 -1.8 .4 2.6 …

Durables 8.9 5.5 2.1 6.3 4.6 -11.8 1.4 9.5 11.6

Nondurables 3.9 3.0 3.3 3.2 1.5 -2.9 .6 2.5 3.1

Services 2.2 3.4 2.6 2.8 1.7 .3 .6 2.0 2.5

Residential investment 11.5 6.6 5.3 -15.7 -20.5 -21.0 -15.5 12.9 25.3

Previous Greenbook 11.5 6.6 5.3 -15.7 -20.5 -21.0 -22.4 9.3 …

Business fixed invest. 5.9 7.0 4.4 7.8 7.9 -6.0 -17.4 5.0 9.9


Equipment & software 7.5 8.8 6.1 6.0 3.2 -10.7 -11.7 9.8 14.3


Nonres. structures 1.3 1.7 -.1 13.0 18.9 3.2 -27.0 -4.7 -.2

Previous Greenbook 1.3 1.7 -.1 13.0 18.9 3.2 -27.6 -5.7 …

Net exports1 -604 -688 -723 -729 -648 -494 -350 -357 -381

Previous Greenbook1 -604 -688 -723 -729 -648 -494 -362 -360 …

Exports 6.2 7.1 6.7 10.2 10.2 -3.4 -3.3 8.2 8.6

Imports 5.1 10.9 5.2 4.1 .9 -6.8 -8.9 8.0 8.0

Gov't. cons. & invest. 1.6 .6 .7 1.5 2.5 3.0 2.5 1.6 1.0

Previous Greenbook 1.6 .6 .7 1.5 2.5 3.0 2.4 1.6 …

Federal 5.7 2.3 1.2 2.2 3.4 8.9 4.8 2.4 .8

Defense 8.4 2.4 .4 4.4 2.6 9.5 5.0 1.9 .0

Nondefense .7 2.3 2.6 -2.3 5.2 7.5 4.2 3.3 2.5

State & local -.5 -.4 .4 1.2 1.9 -.3 1.0 1.1 1.1

Change in bus. inventories1 17 66 50 59 19 -26 -114 -1 75

Previous Greenbook1 17 66 50 59 19 -26 -104 -10 …

Nonfarm1 17 58 50 63 20 -20 -117 -4 73

Farm1 0 8 0 -4 -1 -5 3 3 3

1. Billions of chained (2005) dollars. Return to table

Contributions to Changes in Real Gross Domestic Product

(Percentage points, annual rate except as noted)

Item2009 2010 2011

2009 1 2010 1 2011 1Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Real GDP -6.4 -1.0 2.5 3.2 2.8 3.2 3.8 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.6 -.5 3.5 4.5

Previous Greenbook -6.4 -1.5 .8 1.7 2.5 3.0 3.4 3.6 … … … … -1.4 3.1 …

Final sales -4.1 .5 1.5 .4 2.2 3.1 3.0 3.4 3.6 4.1 4.2 4.6 -.5 2.9 4.1

Previous Greenbook -4.1 -.5 -.5 .2 1.8 2.6 2.9 3.3 … … … … -1.3 2.7 …

Priv. dom. final purch. -6.1 -2.4 1.3 -.4 1.9 2.7 3.1 3.5 3.6 4.0 4.1 4.4 -1.9 2.8 4.1

Previous Greenbook -6.1 -2.9 -.8 -.6 1.2 2.2 2.8 3.3 … … … … -2.6 2.4 …

Personal cons. expend. .4 -.6 1.6 .6 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.7 .5 2.0 2.5

Previous Greenbook .4 -.9 .6 .8 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.2 … … … … .2 1.9 …

Durables .3 -.4 1.1 -.5 .7 .7 .5 .7 .7 .8 .8 .9 .1 .7 .8

Nondurables .3 -.3 .1 .3 .3 .4 .4 .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 .1 .4 .5

Services -.1 .1 .5 .8 .8 .9 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 .3 1.0 1.2

Residential investment -1.3 -.7 .1 .1 .2 .3 .4 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 -.5 .3 .7

Previous Greenbook -1.3 -.9 -.2 -.2 -.1 .2 .3 .4 … … … … -.7 .2 …

Business fixed invest. -5.3 -1.1 -.4 -1.1 .0 .4 .6 .8 .8 .9 .9 .9 -2.0 .5 .9

Previous Greenbook -5.3 -1.1 -1.2 -1.2 -.2 .3 .5 .7 … … … … -2.2 .3 …

Equipment & software -3.0 -.4 .3 -.2 .3 .6 .7 .8 .8 .9 .9 1.0 -.8 .6 .9

Previous Greenbook -3.0 -.6 -.4 -.3 .2 .5 .6 .7 … … … … -1.0 .5 …

Nonres. structures -2.3 -.7 -.7 -.9 -.3 -.2 -.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 -1.1 -.1 .0

Previous Greenbook -2.3 -.6 -.9 -1.0 -.4 -.2 -.1 .0 … … … … -1.2 -.2 …

Net exports 2.6 1.6 -.2 -.1 -.3 .0 -.3 -.2 -.2 -.2 -.2 -.1 1.0 -.2 -.2

Previous Greenbook 2.6 1.1 -.3 .1 -.1 .0 -.1 -.1 … … … … .9 -.1 …

Exports -4.0 -.5 2.1 .9 .8 .9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 -.4 .9 1.0

Imports 6.6 2.1 -2.3 -1.0 -1.1 -.9 -1.2 -1.3 -1.3 -1.1 -1.2 -1.1 1.4 -1.1 -1.2

Gov't. cons. & invest. -.5 1.3 .4 .9 .6 .4 .2 .1 .2 .2 .2 .2 .5 .3 .2

Previous Greenbook -.5 1.2 .6 .7 .7 .4 .2 .1 … … … … .5 .3 …

Federal -.3 .8 .3 .8 .5 .3 .0 .0 .1 .1 .1 .1 .4 .2 .1

Defense -.3 .7 .1 .5 .2 .1 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .3 .1 .0

Nondefense -.1 .2 .1 .2 .3 .2 -.1 -.1 .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 .1

State & local -.2 .5 .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 .1

Change in bus. inventories -2.4 -1.5 1.0 2.8 .6 .1 .8 .8 .8 .4 .4 .1 .0 .6 .4

Previous Greenbook -2.4 -.9 1.4 1.5 .7 .4 .6 .2 … … … … -.1 .5 …

Nonfarm -2.4 -1.6 1.0 2.8 .6 .2 .8 .8 .8 .4 .4 .1 -.1 .6 .4

Farm .1 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 .0 .0


Changes in Prices and Costs


Item2009 2010 2011

2009 1 2010 1 2011 1Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

GDP chain-wt. price index 1.9 .0 .7 1.0 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 .9 1.2 1.1

Previous Greenbook 1.9 .2 .8 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.0 … … … … 1.0 1.1 …

PCE chain-wt. price index -1.5 1.3 2.9 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.0

Previous Greenbook -1.5 1.3 2.4 2.2 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.0 … … … … 1.1 1.3 …

Energy -36.7 -2.2 39.5 4.9 6.0 6.2 4.5 3.5 2.8 2.0 1.9 1.8 -2.4 5.0 2.1

Previous Greenbook -36.7 -2.2 27.7 20.1 10.1 6.4 3.5 1.9 … … … … -1.3 5.4 …

Food -1.1 -3.6 -1.5 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.0 .7 .7 .7 .7 -1.1 1.5 .7

Previous Greenbook -1.1 -3.6 1.5 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.5 1.0 … … … … -.3 1.6 …

Ex. food & energy 1.1 2.0 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.1 1.0

Previous Greenbook 1.1 2.0 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 … … … … 1.4 1.0 …

CPI -2.4 1.3 3.6 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.1

Previous Greenbook -2.4 1.3 3.6 2.7 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.1 … … … … 1.3 1.5 …

Ex. food & energy 1.5 2.4 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.7 1.2 1.1

Previous Greenbook 1.5 2.4 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 … … … … 1.7 1.1 …

ECI, hourly compensation2 .7 .7 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 1.2 1.8 2.0

Previous Greenbook2 .7 .7 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 … … … … 1.0 1.2 …

Nonfarm business sector

Output per hour .3 6.6 5.2 2.9 1.4 1.4 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.6 1.6 1.5 3.7 1.3 1.4

Previous Greenbook .3 5.3 2.2 1.3 1.8 1.4 1.9 1.9 … … … … 2.3 1.7 …

Compensation per hour -4.7 .4 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 -.3 1.8 2.1

Previous Greenbook -2.6 -.8 .8 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 … … … … -.4 1.2 …

Unit labor costs -5.0 -5.8 -3.2 -1.2 .3 .3 .7 .6 .9 .4 .5 .6 -3.8 .5 .6

Previous Greenbook -2.8 -5.9 -1.3 -.3 -.6 -.2 -.7 -.7 … … … … -2.6 -.5 …

Core goods imports chain-wt. price index3 -9.4 -2.4 3.5 3.5 2.0 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -1.4 1.3 1.0

Previous Greenbook3 -9.4 -2.3 3.1 2.7 1.6 1.1 1.0 .9 … … … … -1.6 1.2 …


2. Private-industry workers. Return to table

3. Core goods imports exclude computers, semiconductors, oil, and natural gas. Return to table

Changes in Prices and Costs


Item 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

GDP chain-wt. price index 2.1 3.2 3.5 2.9 2.7 1.9 .9 1.2 1.1

Previous Greenbook 2.1 3.2 3.5 2.9 2.7 1.9 1.0 1.1 …

PCE chain-wt. price index 1.9 3.0 3.3 1.9 3.6 1.7 1.0 1.3 1.0


Energy 8.6 18.6 21.5 -3.7 19.7 -9.1 -2.4 5.0 2.1

Previous Greenbook 8.6 18.6 21.5 -3.7 19.7 -9.1 -1.3 5.4 …

Food 3.2 2.7 1.5 1.7 4.7 6.8 -1.1 1.5 .7

Previous Greenbook 3.2 2.7 1.5 1.7 4.7 6.8 -.3 1.6 …

Ex. food & energy 1.5 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.0 1.4 1.1 1.0


CPI 2.0 3.4 3.8 1.9 4.0 1.5 1.1 1.5 1.1


Ex. food & energy 1.2 2.2 2.1 2.7 2.3 2.0 1.7 1.2 1.1

Previous Greenbook

1.2 2.2 2.1 2.7 2.3 2.0 1.7 1.1 …

ECI, hourly compensation1 4.0 3.8 2.9 3.2 3.0 2.4 1.2 1.8 2.0

Previous Greenbook1 4.0 3.8 2.9 3.2 3.0 2.4 1.0 1.2 …

Nonfarm business sector

Output per hour 5.0 1.5 1.4 .9 2.8 .9 3.7 1.3 1.4

Previous Greenbook 5.0 1.5 1.4 .9 2.8 1.0 2.3 1.7 …

Compensation per hour 5.7 3.4 3.5 4.5 3.6 2.6 -.3 1.8 2.1

Previous Greenbook 5.6 3.3 3.5 4.4 3.6 2.6 -.4 1.2 …

Unit labor costs .6 1.9 2.0 3.5 .7 1.6 -3.8 .5 .6

Previous Greenbook .6 1.8 2.0 3.5 .7 1.6 -2.6 -.5 …

Core goods imports chain-wt. price index2 1.6 3.6 2.2 2.5 3.5 3.8 -1.4 1.3 1.0

Previous Greenbook2 1.6 3.6 2.2 2.5 3.5 3.8 -1.6 1.2 …

1. Private-industry workers. Return to table

2. Core goods imports exclude computers, semiconductors, oil and natural gas. Return to table

Other Macroeconomic Indicators

Item2009 2010 2011

2009 1 2010 1 2011 1Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Employment and production

Nonfarm payroll employment2 -2.1 -1.5 -.9 -.2 .3 .7 .5 .7 1.0 .9 .9 1.0 -4.6 2.4 3.7

Unemployment rate3 8.1 9.2 9.6 9.9 9.8 9.6 9.4 9.2 8.8 8.5 8.2 7.9 9.9 9.2 7.9

Previous Greenbook3 8.1 9.2 9.8 10.0 10.0 9.9 9.8 9.6 … … … … 10.0 9.6 …

GDP gap4 -6.6 -7.3 -7.2 -6.9 -6.8 -6.5 -6.1 -5.6 -5.2 -4.7 -4.2 -3.6 -6.9 -5.6 -3.6

Previous Greenbook4 -6.6 -7.4 -7.7 -7.8 -7.7 -7.4 -7.1 -6.8 … … … … -7.8 -6.8 …

Industrial production5 -19.0 -10.5 4.3 5.0 5.3 5.1 5.5 6.2 6.0 5.8 7.0 8.7 -5.6 5.5 6.9

Previous Greenbook5 -19.1 -11.6 3.0 3.4 3.9 4.7 5.2 5.5 … … … … -6.6 4.8 …

Manufacturing industr. prod.5 -22.0 -9.0 6.3 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.6 6.7 6.6 6.5 7.9 9.9 -5.7 5.6 7.7

Previous Greenbook5 -22.1 -10.5 4.4 3.5 3.8 4.8 5.1 6.0 … … … … -6.8 4.9 …

Capacity utilization rate - mfg.3 66.7 65.3 66.6 67.7 68.8 70.0 71.2 72.7 74.0 75.4 77.0 79.0 67.7 72.7 79.0


Housing starts6 .5 .5 .6 .7 .7 .8 .9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 .6 .9 1.2

Light motor vehicle sales6 9.5 9.6 11.3 10.0 11.1 12.0 12.5 13.1 13.6 14.3 15.0 16.0 10.1 12.2 14.7

Income and saving

Nominal GDP5 -4.6 -1.0 3.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 5.0 5.3 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 .4 4.7 5.6

Real disposable pers. income5 .2 3.9 -3.4 1.0 1.9 2.6 3.4 3.7 1.8 3.9 4.2 4.3 .4 2.9 3.6

Previous Greenbook5 1.1 3.2 -2.5 .5 1.6 1.4 2.7 2.3 … … … … .6 2.0 …

Personal saving rate3 3.7 5.0 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.1 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 3.9 4.1 4.1


Corporate profits7 22.8 19.2 25.2 16.8 6.9 6.7 14.5 9.5 8.1 8.5 11.2 6.9 21.0 9.4 8.7

Profit share of GNP3 8.3 8.7 9.1 9.4 9.4 9.5 9.7 9.8 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.1 9.4 9.8 10.1

Net federal saving8 -969 -1,307 -1,263 -1,286 -1,287 -1,277 -1,289 -1,285 -1,175 -1,140 -1,126 -1,106 -1,206 -1,285 -1,137

Net state & local saving8 -37 -11 -13 11 35 40 47 55 7 5 0 -1 -12 44 3

Gross national saving rate3 11.2 10.2 10.1 10.4 10.3 10.5 10.7 11.0 11.2 11.6 11.9 12.1 10.4 11.0 12.1

Net national saving rate3 -2.5 -3.1 -3.3 -2.8 -2.9 -2.6 -2.3 -1.9 -1.6 -1.1 -.7 -.4 -2.8 -1.9 -.4

1. Change from fourth quarter of previous year to fourth quarter of year indicated, unless otherwise indicated. Return to table

2. Change, millions. Return to table

3. Percent, annual values are for the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Return to table

4. Percent difference between actual and potential GDP; a negative number indicates that the economy is operating below potential. Annual values are for the fourth quarter of the yearindicated. Return to table

5. Percent change, annual rate. Return to table

6. Level, millions, annual values are annual averages. Return to table

7. Percent change, annual rate, with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Return to table

8. Billions of dollars, annual values are annual averages. Return to table

Other Macroeconomic Indicators


Item 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Employment and production

Nonfarm payroll employment1 -.1 2.0 2.4 2.1 1.2 -2.3 -4.6 2.4 3.7

Unemployment rate2 5.8 5.4 4.9 4.4 4.8 6.9 9.9 9.2 7.9


GDP gap3 -1.7 -.8 -.4 -.4 -.5 -4.6 -6.9 -5.6 -3.6

Previous Greenbook3 -1.7 -.8 -.4 -.4 -.5 -4.6 -7.8 -6.8 …

Industrial production4 1.6 3.0 2.6 1.8 1.8 -6.7 -5.6 5.5 6.9

Previous Greenbook4 1.6 3.0 2.6 1.8 1.8 -6.7 -6.6 4.8 …

Manufacturing industr. prod.4 1.8 3.6 3.8 1.2 1.9 -8.7 -5.7 5.6 7.7

Previous Greenbook4 1.8 3.6 3.8 1.2 1.9 -8.7 -6.8 4.9 …

Capacity utilization rate - mfg.2 74.6 77.3 79.2 79.0 78.7 70.9 67.7 72.7 79.0


Housing starts5 1.8 2.0 2.1 1.8 1.4 .9 .6 .9 1.2

Light motor vehicle sales5 16.6 16.8 16.9 16.5 16.1 13.1 10.1 12.2 14.7

Income and saving

Nominal GDP4 6.0 6.4 6.3 5.4 5.3 .1 .4 4.7 5.6

Real disposable pers. income4 3.9 3.5 .6 4.6 1.0 .3 .4 2.9 3.6

Previous Greenbook4 3.9 3.5 .6 4.6 1.0 .3 .6 2.0 …

Personal saving rate2 3.6 3.6 1.5 2.5 1.5 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.1


Corporate profits6 12.2 21.9 19.6 3.7 -5.7 -25.1 21.0 9.4 8.7

Profit share of GNP2 9.1 10.5 11.8 11.6 10.3 7.8 9.4 9.8 10.1

Net federal saving7 -376 -379 -283 -204 -236 -643 -1206 -1285 -1137

Net state & local saving7 -39 -8 26 51 22 -40 -12 44 3

Gross national saving rate2 14.3 14.3 15.5 16.3 13.8 12.2 10.4 11.0 12.1

Net national saving rate2 2.5 2.7 3.5 4.2 1.6 -.7 -2.8 -1.9 -.4

1. Change, millions. Return to table

2. Percent, values are for the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Return to table

3. Percent difference between actual and potential GDP; a negative number indicates that the economy is operating below potential. Values are for the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Returnto table

4. Percent change. Return to table

5. Level, millions, values are annual averages. Return to table

6. Percent change, with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Return to table

7. Billions of dollars, values are annual averages. Return to table

Staff Projections of Federal Sector Accounts and Related Items

(Billions of dollars except as noted)

ItemFiscal year 2009 2010 2011

2008a 2009 2010 2011 Q1a Q2a Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Unified budget Not seasonally adjusted

Receipts1 2524 2109 2202 2470 442 599 520 502 475 665 561 557 527 757 628 597

Outlays1 2983 3540 3621 3619 891 904 865 925 931 893 873 910 922 893 894 914

Surplus/deficit1 -459 -1431 -1419 -1149 -449 -305 -345 -423 -455 -228 -313 -352 -395 -136 -266 -317

Previous Greenbook -459 -1437 -1467 -1268 -449 -305 -351 -405 -485 -247 -329 -388 -422 -170 -287 -334

On-budget -642 -1572 -1532 -1280 -468 -382 -337 -468 -459 -300 -305 -402 -401 -213 -263 -366

Off-budget 183 141 113 131 19 77 -8 45 4 72 -7 50 6 77 -2 48

Means of financing

Borrowing 768 1727 1469 1169 465 338 363 276 648 218 328 342 385 161 281 307

Cash decrease -296 89 33 0 98 -49 35 198 -170 15 -10 15 15 -20 -10 15

Other2 -13 -385 -83 -20 -114 16 -52 -50 -23 -5 -5 -5 -5 -5 -5 -5

Cash operating balance, end of period 372 283 250 250 269 318 283 85 255 240 250 235 220 240 250 235

NIPA federal sector Seasonally adjusted annual rates

Receipts 2534 2285 2355 2580 2251 2203 2238 2261 2355 2385 2419 2457 2578 2619 2666 2710

Expenditures 3074 3338 3640 3762 3220 3510 3501 3547 3643 3662 3708 3742 3753 3759 3793 3816

Consumption expenditures 914 970 1047 1083 954 980 991 1016 1048 1061 1064 1067 1082 1088 1094 1100

Defense 620 655 699 719 643 662 668 684 699 705 709 712 719 721 723 725

Nondefense 294 315 348 364 311 318 323 332 349 356 356 355 363 367 371 375

Other spending 2160 2368 2593 2679 2266 2530 2510 2531 2595 2601 2644 2676 2672 2671 2698 2715

Current account surplus -540 -1053 -1285 -1182 -969 -1307 -1263 -1286 -1287 -1277 -1289 -1285 -1175 -1140 -1126 -1106

Gross investment 141 157 166 168 152 157 159 164 166 167 168 168 168 168 168 168

Gross saving less gross investment3 -563 -1087 -1324 -1219 -999 -1340 -1297 -1324 -1326 -1316 -1328 -1324 -1212 -1177 -1162 -1140

Fiscal indicators4

High-employment (HEB) surplus/deficit -495 -659 -751 -762 -611 -845 -736 -740 -744 -745 -774 -793 -732 -742 -781 -823

Change in HEB, percent of potential GDP 1.7 1.0 0.5 -0.1 1.1 1.5 -0.7 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.4 0.0 0.2 0.2

Fiscal impetus (FI), percent of GDP 0.8 1.0 0.9 -0.0 0.0 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.0 -0.1 -0.2

Previous Greenbook 0.9 1.0 0.9 -0.2 0.0 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 -0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1

1. Budget receipts, outlays, and surplus/deficit include corresponding social security (OASDI) categories. The OASDI surplus and the Postal Service surplus are excluded from the on-budgetsurplus and shown separately as off-budget, as classified under current law. Return to table

2. Other means of financing are checks issued less checks paid, accrued items, and changes in other financial assets and liabilities. Return to table

3. Gross saving is the current account surplus plus consumption of fixed capital of the general government as well as government enterprises. Return to table

4. HEB is gross saving less gross investment (NIPA) of the federal government in current dollars, with cyclically sensitive receipts and outlays adjusted to the staff's measure of potential outputand the NAIRU. Quarterly figures for change in HEB and FI are not at annual rates. The sign on Change in HEB, as a percent of nominal potential GDP, is reversed. FI is the weighted differenceof discretionary changes in federal spending and taxes in chained (2005) dollars, scaled by real GDP. The annual FI estimates are on a calendar year basis. Also, for FI and the change in HEB,positive values indicate aggregate demand stimulus. Return to table

a--Actual Return to table

Change in Debt of the Domestic Nonfinancial Sectors

(Percent)

Period1 TotalHouseholds

Business State and local governments Federal government Memo: Nominal GDPTotal Home mortgages Consumer credit

Year

2004 8.9 11.1 13.6 5.6 6.3 7.4 9.0 6.4

2005 9.5 11.1 13.2 4.5 8.7 10.2 7.0 6.3

2006 9.0 10.0 11.0 4.1 10.5 8.2 3.9 5.4

2007 8.7 6.6 6.6 5.7 13.5 9.3 4.9 5.3

2008 6.0 .3 -.6 1.6 5.4 1.9 24.2 .1

2009 4.2 -.9 -.2 -4.8 -.6 7.6 22.7 .4

2010 5.7 .9 .5 .8 2.2 4.1 19.7 4.7

2011 5.0 2.3 .8 7.2 2.9 3.9 12.1 5.6

Quarter

2008: 1 5.4 3.0 2.4 4.5 7.8 3.6 8.1 1.0

2 3.3 .3 -.5 4.1 6.4 .9 5.9 3.5

3 8.2 -.5 -2.5 .6 5.1 3.3 39.2 1.4

4 6.4 -1.7 -1.7 -2.9 1.8 -.2 37.0 -5.4

2009: 1 4.1 -1.1 -.1 -3.7 -.2 4.9 22.6 -4.6

2 4.8 -1.7 -1.4 -6.5 -1.8 8.3 28.2 -1.0

3 4.1 -.3 .4 -4.9 -1.5 8.4 19.8 3.1

4 3.6 -.4 .2 -4.7 1.1 7.9 13.4 4.2

2010: 1 7.1 .3 .4 -1.9 1.7 4.1 27.8 4.3

2 5.1 .8 .5 .0 2.0 4.0 16.9 4.4

3 5.0 1.1 .5 1.7 2.6 4.0 14.7 5.0

4 5.1 1.4 .5 3.6 2.4 3.9 14.2 5.3

2011: 1 4.7 1.8 .6 5.1 2.6 3.9 11.9 5.6

2 5.2 2.1 .7 6.5 3.2 3.9 12.3 5.6

3 4.8 2.4 .8 7.7 2.7 3.8 11.0 5.6

4 5.0 2.7 .9 8.8 2.8 3.8 11.2 5.6

Note. Quarterly data are at seasonally adjusted annual rates.

1. Data after 2009:Q2 are staff projections. Changes are measured from end of the preceding period to end of period indicated except for annual nominal GDP growth, which is calculated fromQ4 to Q4. Return to table

2.6.3 FOF

Flow of Funds Projections: Highlights

(Billions of dollars at seasonally adjusted annual rates except as noted)

Category 2008 2009 2010 20112009 2010 2011

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Domestic nonfinancial sectors

Net funds raised

Total 1553.3 1429.0 1913.6 1768.3 1470.4 1264.3 2456.6 1733.8 1715.2 1748.7 1653.1 1842.6 1740.1 1837.7

Net equity issuance -334.9 8.7 -85.0 -100.0 69.6 0.0 -40.0 -100.0 -100.0 -100.0 -100.0 -100.0 -100.0 -100.0

Net debt issuance 1888.2 1420.3 1998.6 1868.3 1400.8 1264.3 2496.6 1833.8 1815.2 1848.7 1753.1 1942.6 1840.1 1937.7

Borrowing indicators

Debt (percent of GDP)1 226.1 240.9 243.3 243.2 242.3 242.1 242.8 243.9 244.0 243.9 243.6 243.2 242.9 242.6

Borrowing (percent of GDP) 13.1 10.0 13.5 12.0 9.8 8.8 17.2 12.5 12.2 12.3 11.5 12.5 11.7 12.2

Households

Net borrowing2 35.6 -123.7 121.9 310.9 -47.4 -58.3 39.3 105.4 147.7 195.3 243.3 289.8 334.6 376.0

Home mortgages -59.5 -24.1 52.2 80.7 38.0 19.0 38.0 57.0 57.0 57.0 66.5 76.0 85.5 95.0

Consumer credit 40.2 -125.6 20.8 178.9 -123.9 -116.3 -46.1 0.0 41.3 88.0 126.0 162.9 197.7 229.2

Debt/DPI (percent)3 127.5 126.2 122.3 119.0 125.8 124.9 123.8 122.8 121.7 120.6 120.2 119.3 118.4 117.7

Business

Financing gap4 228.9 -176.0 -151.2 -50.2 -233.9 -219.1 -176.6 -165.6 -146.5 -116.1 -80.7 -57.2 -39.8 -23.2

Net equity issuance -334.9 8.7 -85.0 -100.0 69.6 0.0 -40.0 -100.0 -100.0 -100.0 -100.0 -100.0 -100.0 -100.0

Credit market borrowing 571.8 -68.2 243.8 326.0 -168.1 121.4 192.7 220.0 287.7 275.0 296.1 371.0 313.3 323.6

State and local governments

Net borrowing 41.7 169.0 97.8 97.8 193.8 185.8 97.8 97.8 97.8 97.8 97.8 97.8 97.8 97.8

Current surplus5 212.7 212.7 262.3 225.9 201.2 226.5 251.5 257.5 265.5 274.6 228.1 227.7 223.7 223.9

Federal government

Net borrowing 1239.2 1442.3 1535.0 1133.7 1422.5 1015.5 2166.9 1410.6 1282.0 1280.6 1115.9 1184.1 1094.5 1140.3

Net borrowing (n.s.a.) 1239.2 1442.3 1535.0 1133.7 362.6 275.9 647.7 217.7 327.5 342.2 385.0 161.0 280.6 307.1

Unified deficit (n.s.a.) 680.5 1521.9 1347.9 1113.7 345.0 423.0 455.2 228.0 312.5 352.2 395.0 136.0 265.6 317.1

Depository institutions

Funds supplied 415.1 -444.0 -351.1 1133.3 -794.8 36.1 160.0 11.3 88.4 -1664.0 -1805.7 1974.6 1993.3 2371.1

Note. Data after 2009:Q2 are staff projections.

1. Average debt levels in the period (computed as the average of period-end debt positions) divided by nominal GDP. Return to table

2. Includes change in liabilities not shown in home mortgages and consumer credit. Return to table

3. Average debt levels in the period (computed as the average of period-end debt positions) divided by disposable personal income. Return to table

4. For corporations, excess of capital expenditures over U.S. internal funds. Return to table

5. NIPA state and local government saving plus consumption of fixed capital and net capital transfers. Return to table

n.s.a. Not seasonally adjusted. Return to table

2.6.4 FOF



Accessible Material


International Developments

Summary of Staff Projections

(Percent change from end of previous period, annual rate, except as noted)

Indicator2009

Projection

20092010 2011

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Foreign output -8.6 1.7 3.8 3.2 3.5 4.1

Previous Greenbook -8.7 .6 2.8 2.6 3.3 …

Foreign CPI -1.0 1.0 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.8

Previous Greenbook -1.0 1.0 1.7 1.7 1.7 …


U.S. net exports 2.6 1.6 -.2 -.1 -.2 -.2

Previous Greenbook 2.6 1.1 -.3 .1 -.1 …

Note: Changes for years measured as Q4/Q4.

… Not applicable. Return to table

Staff Projections for Foreign GDP Growth by Region

(Percent change from end of previous period, annual rate)

Indicator2009

Projection

20092010 2011

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Advanced Foreign Economies -7.8 -1.5 2.1 2.1 2.5 3.2

Previous Greenbook -7.8 -2.2 .7 1.4 2.2 …

Emerging Market Economies -9.6 6.0 6.2 4.5 4.7 5.2


Note: Changes for years measured as Q4/Q4.

… Not applicable.

Staff Projections of Selected Trade Prices

(Percent change from end of previous period, annual rate, except as noted)

Trade category2009

Projection

20092010 2011

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Imports

Core goods -9.4 -2.4 3.5 3.5 1.3 1.0

Previous Greenbook -9.4 -2.3 3.1 2.7 1.2 …

Oil (dollars per barrel) 41.58 53.71 64.56 64.68 70.58 72.72

Previous Greenbook 41.58 53.52 64.21 69.48 75.17 …

Exports

Core goods -12.5 2.6 4.0 3.2 1.9 1.2


Note: Prices for core exports exclude computers and semiconductors. Prices for core imports exclude computers, semiconductors, oil, and natural gas. Both prices are on a national income andproduct account chain-weighted basis.

The price of imported oil for multiquarter periods is the price for the final quarter of the period. Imported oil includes both crude oil and refined products.

… Not applicable.

Staff Projections for Trade in Goods and Services

(Percent change from end of previous period, annual rate)

Measure2009

Projection

20092010 2011

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Real imports -36.4 -14.8 18.4 7.2 8.0 8.0


Real exports -29.9 -4.6 20.9 8.1 8.2 8.6


Note: Changes for years are measured as Q4/Q4.

Alternative Scenario:Dollar Depreciation

(Percent change from previous period, annual rate, except as noted)

Indicator and simulation2009 2010

2011 2012-13H2 H1 H2

U.S. real GDP

Baseline 2.8 3.0 4.0 4.5 4.6

Dollar Depreciation 3.1 4.1 5.2 4.1 4.4

U.S. PCE prices excluding food and energy

Baseline 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.3

Dollar Depreciation 1.6 1.7 1.4 .9 1.3

U.S. federal funds rate (percent)

Baseline .1 .1 .1 .1 3.8

Dollar Depreciation .1 .1 .1 .5 3.9

U.S. trade balance (percent share of GDP)

Baseline -2.8 -2.9 -3.0 -3.0 -2.8

Dollar Depreciation -2.4 -1.8 -1.8 -2.4 -2.8

Note: H1 is Q2/Q4; H2 is Q4/Q2. U.S. real GDP and U.S. PCE prices are the average rates over the period. The federal funds rate and the trade balance are the values for the final quarter of theperiod.

Evolution of the Staff Forecast

Figure: Current Account Balance

Line chart, by percent of GDP, January 24, 2007 to September 16, 2009. There are three series, "2008", "2009", and "2010". 2008 begins at about -6.7 andgenerally increases to about -4.75 by April 22, 2009. It then generally decreases to end at about -4.8. 2009 begins at about -5.25 by September 12, 2007, andgenerally increases to about -4.1 by April 23, 2008. It then generally decreases to about -4.55 by June 18, 2008, and generally increases to end at about -2.8.2010 begins at about -3.4 by September 10, 2008, and generally increases to about -3.25 by October 22, 2008. It then generally decreases to about -4.0 by March

12, 2009, and generally increases to end at about -3.1. 2011 is marked at about -3.05.

Figure: Foreign Real GDP

Line chart, by percent change, Q4/Q4, January 24, 2007 to September 16, 2009. There are three series, "2008", "2009", and "2010". 2008 begins at about 3.5 andgenerally decreases to end at about -1. 2009 begins at about 3.2 by September 12, 2007, and generally increases to about 3.6 by March 13, 2008. It thengenerally decreases to about -2.3 by March 12, 2009, and generally increases to end at about -0.1. 2010 begins at about 3.5 by September 10, 2008, andgenerally decreases to about 2.4 by March 12, 2009. It then generally increases to end at about 3.5. 2011 is marked at about 4.1.

Figure: Core Import Prices

Line chart, by percent change, Q4/Q4, January 24, 2007 to September 16, 2009. There are three series, "2008", "2009", and "2010". 2008 begins at about 1 andgenerally increases to about 7.1 by September 10, 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 3.8. 2009 begins at about 1 by September 12, 2007, andgenerally decreases to about 0.6 by October 24, 2007. It then generally increases to about 1.5 by July 30, 2008, and generally decreases to about -4.1 by March12, 2009. It then generally increases to end at about -1.5. 2010 begins at about 1.4 by September 10, 2008, and remains about constant until the end. 2011 ismarked at about 1.

Note: Prices for merchandise imports excluding computers, semiconductors, oil, and natural gas.

Outlook for Foreign Real GDP and Consumer Prices: Selected Countries

(Percent changes)

Measure and country

Projected

2009 2010 2011

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

REAL GDP1 Quarterly changes at an annual rate

Total Foreign -8.6 1.7 3.8 3.2 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.1

Advanced Foreign Economies -7.8 -1.5 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.4 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.3

of which:

Canada -6.1 -3.4 2.3 2.7 2.5 2.7 3.2 3.3 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9

Japan -12.4 2.3 3.9 2.4 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1

United Kingdom -9.3 -2.6 1.4 2.0 1.8 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2

Euro Area2 -9.5 -0.5 1.6 1.4 1.6 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.1

Germany -13.4 1.3 2.7 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.5 3.6

Emerging Market Economies -9.6 6.0 6.2 4.5 4.4 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.2

Asia -2.7 14.3 7.4 6.1 5.7 5.7 5.9 6.0 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.0

Korea 0.5 11.0 4.0 3.8 3.8 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4

China 6.5 18.5 12.1 10.2 8.8 8.0 8.2 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.8

Latin America -16.7 -1.9 5.3 3.1 3.3 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4

Mexico -21.2 -4.4 6.5 3.2 3.3 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5

Brazil -3.8 7.8 4.5 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0

CONSUMER PRICES3 Four-quarter changes

Total Foreign 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.8 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8

Advanced Foreign Economies 1.0 0.0 -0.6 0.2 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1

of which:

Canada 1.2 0.1 -0.6 0.5 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8

Japan -0.1 -1.0 -1.8 -1.2 -0.5 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6

United Kingdom4 3.0 2.1 1.5 1.9 2.5 2.3 1.7 1.5 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.8

Euro Area2 1.0 0.2 -0.3 0.3 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3

Germany 0.8 0.2 -0.2 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1

Emerging Market Economies 2.7 1.6 1.1 1.5 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4

Asia 1.0 -0.3 -0.6 0.3 1.4 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1

Korea 3.9 2.8 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3

China -0.6 -1.5 -1.4 -0.5 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6

Latin America 6.3 5.9 5.0 4.0 3.6 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0

Mexico 6.2 6.0 5.2 4.1 3.6 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

Brazil 5.9 5.3 4.4 4.2 3.9 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7

1. Foreign GDP aggregates calculated using shares of U.S. exports. Return to table

2. Harmonized data for euro area from Eurostat. Return to table

3. Foreign CPI aggregates calculated using shares of U.S. non-oil imports. Return to table

4. CPI excluding mortgage interest payments, which is the targeted inflation rate. Return to table

Outlook for Foreign Real GDP and Consumer Prices: Selected Countries

(Percent, Q4 to Q4)

Measure and country 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Projected

2009 2010 2011

REAL GDP1

Total Foreign 2.9 3.8 4.1 4.0 4.2 -1.0 -0.1 3.5 4.1

Advanced Foreign Economies 1.8 2.6 2.8 2.5 2.5 -1.6 -1.4 2.5 3.2

of which:

Canada 1.5 3.7 3.1 1.9 2.8 -1.0 -1.2 2.9 3.8

Japan 2.4 1.1 2.9 2.1 1.9 -4.5 -1.2 1.9 2.1

United Kingdom 3.2 2.4 2.4 2.8 2.4 -1.8 -2.2 2.5 3.1

Euro Area2 1.2 1.8 2.2 3.5 2.2 -1.7 -1.8 2.1 2.9

Germany 0.1 0.2 1.6 4.3 1.6 -1.8 -2.1 2.3 3.2

Emerging Market Economies 4.5 5.5 5.9 5.9 6.4 -0.1 1.5 4.7 5.2

Asia 6.9 6.0 7.7 7.2 8.2 0.2 6.1 5.8 6.0

Korea 3.7 2.6 5.2 4.6 5.7 -3.4 4.8 4.3 4.4

China 10.3 9.9 10.3 10.8 12.3 6.9 11.7 8.3 8.6

Latin America 1.8 5.0 4.0 4.7 4.5 -0.8 -2.9 3.8 4.4

Mexico 1.3 4.5 3.5 4.0 3.7 -1.7 -4.6 4.0 4.5

Brazil 1.0 4.7 3.7 4.6 6.1 1.2 3.0 4.0 4.0

CONSUMER PRICES3

Total Foreign 2.1 2.8 2.3 2.1 3.7 3.3 0.8 1.6 1.8

Advanced Foreign Economies 1.3 1.8 1.6 1.4 2.2 2.0 0.2 1.0 1.1

of which:

Canada 1.7 2.3 2.3 1.4 2.5 1.9 0.5 1.5 1.8

Japan -0.3 0.5 -1.0 0.3 0.5 1.0 -1.2 -0.5 -0.6

United Kingdom4 1.3 1.4 2.1 2.7 2.1 3.8 1.9 1.5 1.8

Euro Area2 2.0 2.3 2.3 1.8 2.9 2.3 0.3 1.2 1.3

Germany 1.1 2.1 2.2 1.3 3.1 1.7 0.5 1.1 1.1

Emerging Market Economies 3.1 3.9 3.0 2.9 5.1 4.6 1.5 2.2 2.4

Asia 2.3 3.1 2.6 2.4 5.5 3.7 0.3 1.8 2.1

Korea 3.5 3.4 2.5 2.1 3.4 4.5 2.3 2.2 2.3

China 2.7 3.3 1.4 2.1 6.7 2.7 -0.5 1.3 1.6

Latin America 4.9 5.6 3.8 4.1 4.2 6.5 4.0 2.9 3.0

Mexico 3.9 5.3 3.1 4.1 3.8 6.2 4.1 2.5 2.5

Brazil 11.5 7.2 6.1 3.2 4.3 6.2 4.2 3.7 3.7

1. Foreign GDP aggregates calculated using shares of U.S. exports. Return to table

2. Harmonized data for euro area from Eurostat. Return to table

3. Foreign CPI aggregates calculated using shares of U.S. non-oil imports. Return to table

4. CPI excluding mortgage interest payments, which is the targeted inflation rate. Return to table

Outlook for U.S. International Transactions

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Projected

2009 2010 2011

NIPA REAL EXPORTS and IMPORTS

Percentage point contribution to GDP growth, Q4/Q4

Net Goods & Services -0.1 -0.9 -0.2 0.4 1.0 0.7 1.0 -0.2 -0.2

Exports of G&S 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.2 -0.4 -0.4 0.9 1.0

Imports of G&S -0.7 -1.6 -0.8 -0.7 -0.2 1.2 1.4 -1.1 -1.2

Percentage change, Q4/Q4

Exports of G&S 6.2 7.1 6.7 10.2 10.2 -3.4 -3.3 8.2 8.6

Services 4.3 9.1 3.6 12.0 13.0 -3.5 -1.3 5.8 6.0

Computers 11.3 5.8 14.2 8.4 1.3 -2.4 9.0 9.5 9.5

Semiconductors 38.3 -6.0 17.6 2.1 29.1 -12.7 15.8 11.0 11.0

Core Goods1 4.8 7.2 7.2 9.9 8.4 -3.1 -5.5 9.3 9.9

Imports of G&S 5.1 10.9 5.2 4.1 0.9 -6.8 -8.9 8.0 8.0

Services 3.3 8.8 2.3 7.1 2.0 0.2 -2.8 4.0 6.1

Oil 1.3 10.7 1.3 -8.2 0.0 0.3 -12.7 -0.4 -2.1

Natural Gas 1.3 4.9 13.7 -10.1 13.4 -24.0 -0.6 18.6 0.6

Computers 17.1 23.2 12.5 14.3 8.8 -11.3 16.4 15.5 15.5

Semiconductors -0.1 9.8 7.5 -0.8 3.6 -9.7 2.2 5.0 5.0

Core Goods2 5.3 10.9 5.8 5.8 0.2 -9.8 -11.7 10.6 10.4

Billions of Chained 2005 Dollars

Net Goods & Services -603.9 -688.0 -722.7 -729.2 -647.7 -494.3 -349.7 -356.9 -381.4

Exports of G&S 1116.8 1222.8 1305.1 1422.0 1546.1 1629.3 1463.7 1589.8 1725.8

Imports of G&S 1720.7 1910.8 2027.8 2151.2 2193.8 2123.5 1813.4 1946.7 2107.2

Billions of dollars

US CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE -521.5 -631.1 -748.7 -803.5 -726.6 -706.1 -412.4 -450.7 -480.3

Current Acct as Percent of GDP -4.7 -5.3 -5.9 -6.0 -5.2 -4.9 -2.9 -3.0 -3.1

Net Goods & Services (BOP) -495.0 -610.0 -715.3 -760.4 -701.4 -695.9 -370.2 -426.7 -461.0

Investment Income, Net 51.0 73.4 78.8 54.7 97.9 125.5 86.6 105.4 110.1

Direct, Net 112.7 150.9 173.2 174.0 236.7 249.9 208.1 231.7 249.5

Portfolio, Net -61.7 -77.5 -94.4 -119.4 -138.8 -124.3 -121.5 -126.4 -139.4

Other Income & Transfers,Net -77.5 -94.5 -112.2 -97.9 -123.1 -135.7 -128.8 -129.4 -129.4

1. Merchandise exports excluding computers and semiconductors. Return to table

2. Merchandise imports excluding oil, natural gas, computers, and semiconductors. Return to table


2006 2007 2008

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4


Percentage point contribution to GDP growth

Net Goods & Services 0.4 0.0 -0.7 1.9 -0.3 0.7 1.4 2.2 0.4 2.4 -0.1 0.5

Exports of G&S 1.6 0.7 0.1 1.8 0.4 0.6 2.0 1.6 -0.0 1.5 -0.5 -2.7

Imports of G&S -1.2 -0.7 -0.8 0.1 -0.7 0.1 -0.6 0.6 0.4 0.9 0.4 3.1

Percentage change from previous period, s.a.a.r.

Exports of G&S 16.5 6.9 0.6 17.8 3.5 5.2 18.5 14.5 -0.1 12.1 -3.6 -19.5

Services 13.6 5.6 1.5 29.1 4.7 2.8 27.2 19.2 -9.0 7.8 -7.7 -4.3

Computers 18.1 8.9 -9.6 19.0 11.6 -15.4 11.5 0.0 8.7 33.5 1.3 -38.3

Semiconductors 22.1 19.5 -14.2 -13.3 23.7 26.3 4.7 69.9 15.0 -3.8 6.5 -50.7

Core Goods1 17.6 6.7 1.6 14.5 1.5 6.4 15.4 10.8 3.5 14.3 -2.2 -23.7

Imports of G&S 7.8 4.5 4.9 -0.5 4.3 -0.5 3.7 -3.6 -2.5 -5.0 -2.2 -16.7

Services 16.1 1.8 1.3 10.0 0.4 2.1 8.6 -2.9 3.0 -7.1 6.1 -0.9

Oil -20.8 5.0 22.1 -30.1 0.8 14.7 -3.4 -10.4 -1.5 -9.3 2.7 10.3

Natural Gas -50.2 80.0 26.1 -42.2 52.8 54.0 36.5 -48.5 -5.0 -38.2 12.2 -49.5

Computers 24.8 13.0 17.3 3.1 39.0 -15.4 -2.2 21.6 12.7 8.6 -15.9 -39.9

Semiconductors 2.4 -2.8 17.4 -17.3 7.3 2.6 -0.4 4.9 5.6 8.9 -6.3 -38.2

Core Goods2 14.0 3.1 0.6 5.8 3.1 -3.6 4.1 -2.5 -5.1 -3.2 -5.1 -24.2

Billions of Chained 2005 Dollars, s.a.a.r.

Net Goods & Services -732.6 -732.8 -756.5 -694.9 -705.0 -683.4 -638.4 -564.0 -550.9 -476.0 -479.2 -470.9

Exports of G&S 1388.8 1412.1 1414.1 1473.2 1485.9 1504.8 1569.9 1624.0 1623.4 1670.4 1655.2 1568.0

Imports of G&S 2121.3 2144.9 2170.5 2168.1 2190.8 2188.1 2208.3 2188.0 2174.3 2146.5 2134.4 2038.9

Billions of dollars, s.a.a.r.

US CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE -794.6 -808.3 -859.2 -752.1 -796.4 -762.1 -686.5 -661.3 -717.2 -750.9 -736.7 -619.5

Current Account as % of GDP -6.0 -6.1 -6.4 -5.5 -5.8 -5.4 -4.8 -4.6 -5.0 -5.2 -5.1 -4.3

Net Goods & Services (BOP) -766.5 -764.7 -797.2 -713.1 -712.2 -710.2 -685.9 -697.4 -730.6 -731.4 -743.8 -578.0

Investment Income, Net 62.4 57.7 44.0 54.6 45.8 58.2 120.7 167.0 154.0 112.3 143.7 92.1

Direct, Net 173.9 175.2 163.1 183.9 186.7 204.4 252.7 303.0 284.6 241.9 268.0 205.1

Portfolio, Net -111.5 -117.5 -119.1 -129.3 -140.9 -146.2 -132.0 -136.0 -130.6 -129.6 -124.2 -113.0

Other Inc. & Transfers, Net -90.5 -101.3 -106.0 -93.6 -130.0 -110.1 -121.3 -130.9 -140.6 -131.8 -136.7 -133.6




Projected

2009 2010 2011

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4


Percentage point contribution to GDP growth

Net Goods & Services 2.6 1.6 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.0 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1

Exports of G&S -4.0 -0.5 2.1 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1

Imports of G&S 6.6 2.1 -2.3 -1.0 -1.1 -0.9 -1.2 -1.3 -1.3 -1.1 -1.2 -1.1

Percentage change from previous period, s.a.a.r.

Exports of G&S -29.9 -4.6 20.9 8.1 7.4 7.9 8.4 8.9 8.6 8.4 8.3 9.0

Services -13.6 -0.1 5.1 4.8 4.8 5.5 6.2 6.6 6.3 5.9 5.8 5.9

Computers -14.0 -10.8 59.6 15.2 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5

Semiconductors -17.1 12.6 61.6 19.3 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0

Core Goods1 -38.3 -7.3 27.7 9.2 8.6 9.0 9.5 10.1 9.8 9.5 9.5 10.6

Imports of G&S -36.4 -14.8 18.4 7.2 8.1 6.4 8.7 8.9 8.6 7.8 8.0 7.6

Services -11.5 -7.6 5.3 3.6 6.0 -0.1 4.7 5.5 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.4

Oil -15.9 -21.9 -6.3 -5.8 0.8 -1.8 0.0 -0.5 -1.6 -4.6 -1.0 -1.4

Natural Gas 5.9 -2.4 -18.2 15.7 57.3 10.2 40.8 -18.9 -9.7 3.3 36.0 -19.3

Computers -22.3 24.8 61.0 17.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5

Semiconductors -47.8 24.7 43.0 17.3 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0

Core Goods2 -46.7 -18.6 26.5 10.4 9.5 9.7 11.0 12.3 11.7 10.7 9.5 9.9

Billions of Chained 2005 Dollars, s.a.a.r.

Net Goods & Services -386.5 -332.0 -338.8 -341.5 -350.9 -350.8 -359.2 -366.7 -374.4 -379.3 -385.2 -386.6

Exports of G&S 1434.5 1417.8 1486.6 1515.7 1542.9 1572.5 1604.6 1639.3 1673.7 1707.6 1742.1 1780.0

Imports of G&S 1821.0 1749.8 1825.4 1857.2 1893.8 1923.3 1963.8 2006.1 2048.0 2086.8 2127.3 2166.7

Billions of dollars, s.a.a.r.

US CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE -410.8 -392.4 -419.2 -427.3 -454.6 -440.0 -451.9 -456.3 -481.1 -471.1 -482.8 -486.4

Current Account as % of GDP -2.9 -2.8 -2.9 -3.0 -3.1 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.1 -3.0 -3.1 -3.1

Net Goods & Services (BOP) -369.6 -332.0 -384.0 -395.1 -414.2 -418.6 -431.2 -442.8 -454.8 -458.0 -464.3 -466.9

Investment Income, Net 84.3 80.4 88.7 92.8 98.6 103.5 107.8 111.6 112.7 111.8 110.1 105.6

Direct, Net 208.0 203.4 207.0 214.0 221.2 228.6 235.6 241.7 246.5 249.5 250.8 251.0

Portfolio, Net -123.7 -123.0 -118.3 -121.2 -122.6 -125.1 -127.8 -130.0 -133.8 -137.7 -140.7 -145.5

Other Inc. & Transfers, Net -125.5 -140.9 -123.8 -125.1 -139.0 -124.9 -128.5 -125.1 -139.0 -124.9 -128.5 -125.1





Accessible Material


Domestic Nonfinancial Developments

Changes in Employment

(Thousands of employees; seasonally adjusted)

Measure and sector2008

2008 2009

Q4 Q1 Q2 June July Aug.

Average monthly change Monthly change

Nonfarm payroll employment (establishment survey) -257 -553 -691 -428 -463 -276 -216

Private -270 -552 -695 -425 -391 -248 -198

Natural resources and mining 4 -2 -12 -11 -10 -6 -8

Manufacturing -73 -140 -202 -140 -123 -43 -63

Ex. motor vehicles -58 -121 -176 -117 -102 -74 -48

Construction -57 -97 -124 -80 -79 -73 -65

Residential -35 -51 -53 -26 -25 -23 -23

Nonresidential -22 -45 -71 -54 -54 -50 -43

Wholesale trade -16 -32 -36 -20 -15 -17 -17

Retail trade -44 -80 -55 -27 -20 -43 -10

Financial activities -19 -35 -51 -35 -33 -17 -28

Temporary help services -44 -70 -73 -28 -30 -8 -7

Nonbusiness services1 19 -19 -25 19 18 23 26

Total government 14 -1 4 -3 -72 -28 -18

Federal government 3 2 10 3 -43 9 -5

Total employment (household survey) -246 -564 -817 -230 -374 -155 -392

Memo:

Aggregate hours of private production workers (percent change)2 -3.3 -7.4 -8.9 -7.8 -.7 .1 -.3

Average workweek (hours)3 33.6 33.4 33.2 33.1 33.0 33.1 33.1

Manufacturing (hours) 40.8 40.2 39.6 39.5 39.5 39.8 39.8

1. Nonbusiness services comprises education and health, leisure and hospitality, and "other." Return to table

2. Establishment survey. Annual data are percent changes from Q4 to Q4. Quarterly data are percent changes from preceding quarter at an annual rate. Monthly data are percent changes frompreceding month. Return to table

3. Establishment survey. Return to table

Figure: Changes in Private Payroll Employment

Line chart, by thousands, 1999 to August 2009. Data are 3-month moving averages. The series begins at about 240 and generally increases to about 300 by late1999. It then generally decreases to about -310 by late 2001, and generally increases to about 300 by 2004. It then generally decreases to about -700 by early2009, and generally increases to end at about -290.


Figure: Aggregate Hours and Workweek of Production and Nonsupervisory Workers

Line chart, 1999 to August 2009. There are two series, "Aggregate hours", an index (2002 = 100), and "Workweek", which is by hours. These two series use twodifferent scales. Aggregate hours begins at about 100.8 and generally increases to about 104 by 2000. It then generally decreases to about 98.1 by 2003, andgenerally increases to about 107.8 by late 2007. It then generally decreases to end at about 99. Workweek begins at about 34.4 and generally decreases to about

33.6 by early 2003. It then generally increases to about 34.0 by late 2006, and generally decreases to end at about 33.15.


Selected Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Rates

(Percent; seasonally adjusted)

Rate and group 20082008 2009


Civilian unemployment rate

Total 5.8 6.9 8.1 9.2 9.5 9.4 9.7

Teenagers 18.7 20.7 21.3 22.7 24.0 23.8 25.5

20-24 years old 10.2 11.3 13.0 15.0 15.2 15.3 15.1

Men, 25 years and older 4.8 6.0 7.4 8.8 9.2 9.0 9.5

Women, 25 years and older 4.4 5.2 6.2 6.9 7.0 6.9 7.0

Labor force participation rate

Total 66.0 65.9 65.6 65.8 65.7 65.5 65.5

Teenagers 40.2 38.7 38.3 38.4 38.6 38.0 37.7

20-24 years old 74.4 74.1 73.7 74.1 73.4 73.5 73.0

Men, 25 years and older 75.4 75.2 74.6 74.9 75.0 74.8 75.0

Women, 25 years and older 60.0 60.1 60.0 60.3 60.3 60.1 59.9


Line chart, by percent, 2000 to August 2009. A vertical line indicates the NBER Peak in December 2007. The series begins at about 4 and generally increases toabout 6.4 by 2003. It then generally decreases to about 4.5 by late 2006, and generally increases to end at about 9.7. It is at about 4.9 at the time of the NBERpeak.

Note: Shaded bar indicates a period of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER): March 2001-November 2001. The NBER peak is the last businesscycle peak as defined by the NBER.

Figure: Labor Force Participation Rate

Line chart, by percent, 2000 to August 2009. A vertical line indicates the NBER Peak in December 2007. The series begins at about 67.3 and generally decreasesto about 65.8 by 2004. It then generally increases to about 66.3 by late 2006, and generally decreases to end at about 65.5. It is at about 66.0 at the time of theNBER peak.

Note: See the note to the immediately preceding figure, "Unemployment Rate."

Figure: Persons Working Part Time for Economic Reasons

Line chart, by percent of household employment, 2000 to August 2009. The series begins at about 2.3 and generally increases to about 3.5 by 2003. It thengenerally decreases to about 2.7 by 2006, and generally increases to end at about 6.5.

Figure: Job Losers Unemployed Less Than 5 Weeks

Line chart, by percent of household employment, 2000 to August 2009. There are two series, "Job Losers Unemployed Less Than 5 Weeks" and "3-month movingaverage". These two series track closely together throughout the chart. They begin at about 0.84 and generally increases to about 1.3 by late 2001. It thengenerally decreases to about 0.84 by early 2007, and generally increases to end at about 1.42.


Labor Market Indicators

Figure: Insured Unemployment

Stacked line chart, by millions, 1999 to 2009. There are two series, "Incl. extended and emergency benefits" and "Regular state programs". Incl. extended andemergency benefits begins at about 0 and generally increases to about 5 by 2002. It is also 0 from about 2004 to mid-2008, and then generally increases to end atabout 9.7 by August 22, 2009. Regular state programs begins at about 2.2 and generally decreases to about 2 by 2000. It then generally increases to about 3.7 by2002, and generally decreases to about 2.5 by 2006. It then generally increases to about 6.8 by 2009, and generally decreases to end at about 6.1 by August 29,2009.

Note: 4-week moving averages.

Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor, Employment and Training Administration.

Figure: Layoffs and Initial Claims

Line chart, 1999 to 2009. There are two series, "Layoffs and discharges", which is by percent of private employment, and "Initial claims", which is by thousands.These two series use two different scales. Layoffs and discharges begins at about 1.6 by late 2000, and generally increases to about 2.1 by early 2001. It thengenerally decreases to about 1.3 by early 2006, and generally increases to about 2.25 by early 2009. It then generally decreases to about 1.8 by mid-2009, andgenerally increases to end at about 2.1 by July. Initial claims begins at about 335 and generally decreases to about 265 by 2000. It then generally increases toabout 495 by late 2001, and generally decreases to about 280 by early 2006. It then generally increases to about 655 by early 2009, and generally decreases toend at about 575 by September 5.

Note: Data for initial claims are 4-week moving averages.

Source: For layoffs and discharges, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey; for initial claims, U.S. Dept. of Labor, Employment and Training Administration.

Figure: Net Hiring Plans

Line chart, by percent, 1999 to 2009. There are two series, "Manpower, Inc." and "NFIB net hiring plans" (3-month moving average). Manpower, Inc. begins atabout 21 and generally increases to about 25 by 2000. It then generally decreases to about 7.5 by 2003, and generally increases to about 21 by early 2005. It thengenerally decreases to end at about -2.5 by 2009:Q4. NFIB net hiring plans begins at about 17 and generally decreases to about 5.5 by early 2003. It thengenerally increases to about 17 by late 2006, and generally decreases to about -5 by early 2009. It then generally increases to end at about -2.5 by August.

Note: Percent planning an increase in employment minus the percent planning a reduction.

Source: National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB); Manpower, Inc.

Figure: Job Openings

Line chart, 1999 to 2009. There are two series, "Job openings", which is by percent of private employment plus job openings, and "Composite Help Wanted Index",1980=100. These two series use two different scales. Job openings begins at about 3.9 by late 2000, and generally decreases to about 2.5 by 2003. It thengenerally increases to about 3.6 by early 2007, and generally decreases to end at about 1.9 by July. Composite Help Wanted Index begins at about 91 andgenerally decreases to about 50 by 2003. It then generally increases to about 75 by early 2007, and generally decreases to end at about 46 by August.

Note: Composite Help Wanted Index is an index of staff composite help wanted advertising as a percent of payroll employment.

Source: For job openings, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey; for Help Wanted Index, Conference Board and staff calculations.

Figure: Job Availability and Hard-to-Fill Positions

Line chart, 1999 to August 2009. There are two series, "Job availability", which is an index, and "Hard-to-fill" (3-month moving average), which is by percent. Thesetwo series use two different scales. Job availability begins at about 135 and generally increases to about 142 by late 1999. It then generally decreases to about 78by 2003, and generally increases to about 110 by 2007. It then generally decreases to end at about 58. Hard-to-fill begins at about 30 and generally increases toabout 33.5 by 2000. It then generally decreases to about 16 by 2003, and generally increases to about 27.5 by 2006. It then generally decreases to end at about10.

Note: Job availability is proportion of households believing jobs are plentiful, minus the proportion believing jobs are hard to get, plus 100. Hard-to-fill is percent of small businesses surveyed withat least one "hard-to-fill" job opening; seasonally adjusted by FRB staff.

Source: For job availability, Conference Board; for hard-to-fill, National Federation of Independent Business.

Figure: Expected Labor Market Conditions

Line chart, 1999 to 2009. There are two series, "Conference Board" and "Reuters/Michigan". Both series are indexes: the proportion of households expecting labormarket conditions to improve, minus the proportion expecting conditions to worsen, plus 100. Conference Board begins at about 100 and generally increases toabout 110 by 2000. It then generally decreases to about 85 by early 2003, and generally increases to about 106 by early 2004. It then generally decreases to about60 by early 2009, and generally increases to end at about 95 by August. Reuters/Michigan begins at about 87 and generally increases to about 100 by 1999. Itthen generally decreases to about 49 by 2001, and generally increases to about 107 by 2004. It then generally decreases to about 38 by late 2008, and generallyincreases to end at about 90 by September.

Note: September 2009 value is preliminary.

Source: Conference Board; Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

Output per Hour

(Percent change from preceding period at an annual rate; seasonally adjusted)

Sector2007:Q2

to 2008:Q2

2008:Q2 to

2009:Q2 1

2008 2009

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 1

Nonfarm business

All persons 2.6 1.9 -.1 .8 .3 6.6

All employees2 2.1 1.6 -.6 -1.0 1.1 7.3

1. Staff estimates. Return to table

2. Assumes that the growth rate of hours of non-employees equals the growth rate of hours of employees. Return to table

Source: For output, U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; for hours, U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Selected Components of Industrial Production

(Percent change from preceding comparable period)

ComponentProportion

2008 (percent)

2008 1

2009 2009

Q1 Q2 June July Aug.

Annual rate Monthly rate

Total 100.0 -6.7 -19.0 -10.5 -.4 1.0 .8

Previous 100.0 -6.7 -19.1 -11.4 -.4 .5 …

Manufacturing 79.0 -8.7 -22.0 -9.0 -.3 1.4 .6

Ex. motor veh. and parts 74.5 -7.8 -18.3 -8.8 -.1 .6 .4

Ex. high-tech industries 70.3 -7.8 -18.0 -9.3 -.2 .5 .4

Mining 10.6 .8 -11.7 -21.3 -.9 .6 .5

Utilities 10.4 .3 -4.1 -11.2 -.5 -1.6 1.9

Selected industries

Energy 23.9 1.3 -6.5 -14.2 -.7 -.7 1.1

High technology 4.2 -6.9 -24.3 .7 .8 2.5 -.5

Computers 1.0 -11.9 -26.5 -22.1 -1.9 -1.2 -1.1

Communications equipment 1.3 10.4 -3.5 -4.1 2.9 .7 .0

Semiconductors2 1.8 -15.0 -38.1 22.2 .3 6.1 -.6

Motor vehicles and parts 4.5 -23.3 -69.5 -13.8 -3.6 20.1 5.5

Aircraft and parts 2.3 -13.2 64.6 -18.4 -1.2 2.1 -.7

Total ex. selected industries 65.1 -8.3 -21.1 -9.3 -.1 .4 .5

Consumer goods 20.7 -4.2 -9.2 -5.2 -.1 -.2 1.0

Durables 3.5 -14.7 -25.7 -12.8 -.5 1.4 -.7

Nondurables 17.1 -1.8 -5.7 -3.8 -.1 -.4 1.2

Business equipment 6.6 -4.8 -23.5 -22.0 -.8 .4 .3

Defense and space equipment 1.1 -2.1 -4.9 4.2 .1 1.9 -.3

Construction supplies 4.8 -11.8 -34.1 -10.8 -.1 .7 .0

Business supplies 7.3 -9.8 -24.8 -11.1 .3 .0 .2

Materials 24.6 -11.7 -27.0 -8.9 -.1 1.0 .4

Durables 12.4 -11.4 -37.9 -23.9 -.6 1.9 .0

Nondurables 12.2 -12.0 -14.6 7.1 .4 .2 .8

1. From fourth quarter of preceding year to fourth quarter of year shown. Return to table

2. Includes related electronic components. Return to table


Source: Federal Reserve, G.17 Statistical Release, "Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization."

Capacity Utilization

(Percent of capacity)

Sector1972-2008

average

1994-95

high

2001-02 low

2008 2009

Q4 Q1 Q2 July Aug.

Total industry 80.9 84.9 73.5 74.2 70.4 68.6 69.0 69.6

Manufacturing 79.6 84.5 71.4 70.9 66.7 65.3 66.1 66.6

Mining 87.6 89.1 84.9 89.6 86.8 81.9 81.7 82.2

Utilities 86.8 93.3 84.2 83.6 82.4 79.6 77.3 78.7

Stage-of-process groups

Crude 86.6 89.9 81.7 83.8 80.9 79.5 80.0 80.7

Primary and semifinished 82.0 87.9 74.3 73.4 68.4 66.2 66.3 66.7

Finished 77.7 80.3 70.0 71.0 68.4 67.1 67.7 68.5


Indicators of High-Tech Manufacturing Activity

Figure: Industrial Production in the High-Tech Sector

Line chart, 2002 to August 2009. 2002 = 100, ratio scale. There are three series, "Semiconductors", "Computers", and "Communications equipment".Semiconductors begins at about 90 and generally increases to about 325 by 2008. It then generally decreases to about 220 by early 2009, and generally increasesto end at about 248. Computers begins at about 100 and generally increases to about 240 by 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 160.Communications equipment begins at about 100 and generally increases to end at about 170.


Figure: Bookings and Billings for Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment

Line chart, by billions of dollars, 2002 to July 2009. There are two series, "Billings" and "Bookings". Billings begins at about 0.85 and generally increases to about1.0 by 2002. It then generally decreases to about 0.75 by 2003, and generally increases to about 1.5 by 2004. It then generally decreases to about 1.0 by 2005,and generally increases to about 1.7 by 2007. It then generally decreases to about 0.4 by 2009, and generally increases to end at about 0.55. Bookings begins atabout 0.69 and generally increases to about 1.15 by 2002. It then generally decreases to about 0.7 by 2003, and generally increases to about 1.7 by 2006. It thengenerally decreases to about 0.28 by 2009, and generally increases to end at about 0.52.

Note: FRB seasonals.

Source: Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International.

Figure: MPU Shipments and Intel Revenue

Line chart, by billions of dollars, ratio scale, 2002 to 2009. There are two series, "Intel revenue" and "Worldwide MPU shipments". Intel revenue begins at about 6.9and generally decreases to about 6.5 by 2002. It then generally increases to about 9.9 by mid-2005, and generally decreases to about 8.5 by mid-2006. It thengenerally increases to about 10.3 by early 2008, and generally decreases to about 7.75 by early 2009. It then generally increases to end at about 8.4 by 2009:Q3.Worldwide MPU shipments begins at about 6.0 and generally increases to about 6.75 by 2002. It then generally decreases to about 5.75 by 2002, and generallyincreases to about 9.3 by 2007. It then generally decreases to about 5.8 by early 2009, and generally increases to end at about 8.45 by July.

Note: FRB seasonals. MPU is a microprocessor unit. Q3 Intel revenue is the midpoint of the range given by the company's guidance as of August 28, 2009. MPU shipments are a 3-month sum.

Source: Intel; Semiconductor Industry Association.

Figure: U.S. Personal Computer and Server Absorption

Line chart, by millions of units, ratio scale, 2002 to 2009. There are two series, "Servers" and "PCs". These two series use two different scales. Servers begins atabout 0.44 and generally increases to about 0.78 by early 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 048. PCs begins at about 11.3 and generallydecreases to about 11.2 by 2002. It then generally increases to about 16.7 by late 2007, generally decreases to about 16.0 by late 2008, and generally increases toend at about 16.5.

Note: FRB seasonals. PC and server units represent the most recent U.S. data available from IDC. Q3 PC units are from the PC forecast data release (marked at about 16.8 million units). Q3server units are from the server forecast data release (marked at about 0.57 million units).

Source: IDC.

Figure: Capital Expenditures by Selected Telecommunications Service Providers

Line chart, by billions of dollars, ratio scale, 2001 to 2009:Q2. The series begins at about 73 and generally decreases to about 32.5 by 2003. It then generallyincreases to about 47.5 by early 2006, and generally decreases to end at about 34.5. The annual average is marked in the time series for each year. For 2001, itis marked at about 65, for 2002 it is marked at about 45, for 2003 it is marked at about 37, for 2004 it is marked at about 37.5, for 2005 it is marked at about 40.5,for 2006 it is marked at about 45, for 2007 it is marked at about 44, for 2008 it is at about 41.5. 2009 annual guidance is marked at about 37.

Note: FRB seasonals. Includes AT&T, Verizon, Sprint Nextel, and companies related by merger, acquisition, or spinoff.

Source: SEC filings.

Figure: High-Tech Exports

Line chart, by billions of dollars, 2002 to July 2009. The series begins at about 114 and generally decreases to about 103 by late 2002. It then generally increasesto about 151 by 2008, and generally decreases to about 106 by 2009. It then generally increases to end at about 118.

Note: Includes semiconductors and related equipment, communications equipment, and computers and peripherals.

Source: U.S. International Trade Commission.

Indicators of Industrial Activity

Figure: Motor Vehicle Assemblies

Line chart, by millions of units, 2002 to September 2009. There are two series, "Autos and light trucks" and "Medium and heavy trucks". These two series use twodifferent scales. Autos and light trucks begins about 11.7 and generally increases to about 12.9 by 2002. It then generally decreases to about 3.6 by early 2009,and generally increases to end at about 6.4. Medium and heavy trucks begins at about 0.2 and generally increases to about 0.55 by 2006. It then generallydecreases to about 0.1 by 2009, and generally increases to end at about 0.19.

Note: September values are based on latest industry schedules.

Source: Ward's Communications.

Figure: IP Diffusion Index

Line chart, an index, 2002 to August 2009. A vertical line indicates the NBER Peak in December 2007. The series begins at about 50 and generally increases toabout 65 by 2002. It then generally decreases to about 40 by 2003, and generally increases to about 67 by late 2003. It then generally decreases to about 16 byearly 2009, and generally increases to end at about 51. It is at about 50 at the time of the NBER peak.

Note: The diffusion index equals the percentage of series that increased relative to 3 months earlier plus one-half the percentage that were unchanged.


Figure: Manufacturing Capacity Utilization

Line chart, by percent, 1997 to August 2009. A vertical line indicates the NBER Peak in December 2007. The series begins at about 82.5 and generally increasesto about 83.5 by late 1997. It then generally decreases to about 71.5 by late 2001, and generally increases to about 79.5 by late 2005. It then generally decreasesto end at about 67. It is at about 78.5 at the time of the NBER peak.

Note: Horizontal line is 1972-2008 average (approximately 77). A shaded bar indicates a period of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER): March2001-November 2001.


Figure: ISM New Orders Diffusion Index and Change in Real Adjusted Durable Goods Orders

Line chart, 2002 to 2009. There are two series, "ISM", which is a diffusion index, and "RADGO", which is by percent. These two series use two different scales.ISM begins at about 55 and generally increases to about 65 by 2002. It then generally decreases to about 47 by 2003, and generally increases to about 71 by late2003. It then generally decreases to about 24 by late 2008, and generally increases to end at about 65 by August. RADGO begins at about -1 and generallyincreases to about 2.8 by late 2003. It then generally decreases to about -2.2 by early 2004, and generally increases to about 2.5 by 2005. It then generallydecreases to about -5 by 2008, and generally increases to end at about 2.5 by July.

Note: The measure for real adjusted durable goods orders (RADGO) is a 3-month moving average.

Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM). RADGO is compiled by FRB staff based on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the U.S. Census Bureau.

Figure: New Orders Diffusion Indexes: Empire State and Average of Regional Surveys

Line chart, a diffusion index, 2002 to 2009. There are two series, "Empire State" and "Regional average". Empire State begins at about 56 and generally increasesto about 60 by 2002. It then generally decreases to about 51 by late 2002, and generally increases to about 70 by 2004. It then generally decreases to about 27 byearly 2009, and generally increases to end at about 60. Regional average begins at about 54 and generally increases to about 58 by 2002. It then generallydecreases to about 45 by 2003, and generally increases to about 65 by late 2003. It then generally decreases to about 30 by late 2008, and generally increases toend at about 53.

Note: Regional average includes new orders indexes from the Chicago, Dallas, Kansas City, New York (Empire State), Philadelphia, and Richmond surveys.

Source: Federal Reserve.

Figure: Three-Month Changes in Months' Supply

Line chart, a diffusion index, 2000 to August 2009. A vertical line indicates the NBER Peak in December 2007. The series begins at about 38 and generallyincreases to about 75 by 2000. It then generally decreases to about 8 by 2002, and generally increases to about 90 by late 2008. It then generally decreases toabout 25 by mid-2009, and generally increases to end at about 32. It is at about 50 at the time of the NBER peak.

Note: The diffusion index equals 50 plus one-half of the share of industries whose month's supply is up relative to 3 months earlier minus one-half of the share of industries whose month'ssupply is down relative to 3 months earlier. A shaded bar indicates a period of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER): March 2001-November2001.

Source: Staff's flow-of-goods system.

Sales of Light Vehicles

(Millions of units at an annual rate; FRB seasonals)

Category 20082008 2009


Total 13.1 10.4 9.5 9.6 9.7 11.2 14.1

Autos 6.7 5.3 4.8 4.9 5.0 6.2 8.0

Light trucks 6.4 5.1 4.7 4.7 4.7 5.1 6.1

North American1 9.8 7.7 6.8 7.1 7.2 8.3 10.1

Autos 4.5 3.6 3.1 3.2 3.3 4.2 5.3

Light trucks 5.3 4.2 3.7 3.9 3.9 4.2 4.8

Foreign-produced 3.3 2.7 2.7 2.4 2.5 2.9 4.0

Autos 2.2 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.7 2.0 2.7

Light trucks 1.1 .9 1.0 .8 .8 .9 1.2

Memo:

Detroit Three market share (percent)2 48.3 48.0 44.1 46.8 46.3 44.8 41.3

Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

1. Excludes some vehicles produced in Canada that are classified as imports by the industry. Return to table

2. Includes domestic and foreign brands affiliated with the Detroit Three. Return to table

Source: Ward's Communications. Adjusted using FRB seasonals.

[Content redacted.]

Figure: Light Vehicle Market Shares

Line chart, by percent, 2002 to August 2009. There are two series, "Detroit Three domestically produced" and "All domestically produced". Detroit Three begins atabout 60 and generally increases to about 64 by late 2002. It then generally decreases to about 42 by mid-2008, generally increases to about 52 by 2008, andgenerally decreases to end at about 40. All domestically produced begins at about 80 and fluctuates but generally increases to about 82.5 by mid-2005. It thengenerally decreases too end at about 72.3.


Figure: Car-Buying Attitudes

Line chart, 2002 to September 2009. There are two series, "Appraisal of car-buying conditions", which is an index, and "Good time to buy: low prices", which is bypercent. Appraisal of car-buying conditions begins at about 155 and generally decreases to about 140 by early 2003. It then generally increases to about 160 bylate 2003, and generally decreases to about 90 by mid-2008. It then generally increases to about 140 by mid-2009, and generally decreases to end at about 124.Good time to buy: low prices begins at about 36 and generally decreases to about 28 by late 2002. It then generally increases to about 56 by 2005, and generallydecreases to about 30 by 2006. It then generally increases to about 65 by 2009, and generally decreases to end at about 50.

Note: September 2009 values are preliminary.


Figure: Average Value of Incentives on Light Vehicles

Line chart, by current dollars per vehicle, ratio scale, 2004 to September 6, 2009. The series begins at about 2200 and generally increases to about 2900 by 2004.It then generally decreases to about 1100 by late 2006, and generally increases to about 2420 by late 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 1590.

Note: Weekly weighted average of customer cash rebate and the present value of interest rate reduction.

Source: J.D. Power and Associates. Adjusted using FRB seasonals.

Production of Domestic Light Vehicles

(Millions of units at an annual rate except as noted)

Item2009 2009

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 May June July Aug.

U.S. production1 4.4 4.4 6.3 6.8 4.2 4.0 5.7 6.4

Autos 1.7 1.8 2.6 2.8 1.8 1.8 2.3 2.6

Light trucks 2.8 2.5 3.8 4.0 2.4 2.2 3.5 3.8

Days' supply2 93 70 n.a. n.a. 76 70 55 36

Autos 93 78 n.a. n.a. 84 76 55 32

Light trucks 93 64 n.a. n.a. 70 64 55 41

Inventories3 2.05 1.63 n.a. n.a. 1.83 1.63 1.50 1.20

Autos .92 .82 n.a. n.a. .88 .82 .75 .56

Light trucks 1.13 .81 n.a. n.a. .95 .81 .75 .64

Memo: U.S. production, total motor vehicles4 4.6 4.5 6.5 6.9 4.3 4.1 5.9 6.6

Note: FRB seasonals. Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

1. Production rates for the third and fourth quarters of 2009 reflect the latest industry schedules. Return to table

2. Quarterly values are calculated with end-of-period stocks and average reported sales. Return to table

3. End-of-period stocks. Return to table

4. Includes medium and heavy trucks. Return to table

n.a. Not available. Return to table

Source: Ward's Communications.

Figure: Inventories of Light Vehicles

Line chart, by millions of units, 1998 to August 2009. The series begins at about 2.8 and generally decreases to about 2.5 by mid-1998. It then generally increasesto about 3.8 by 2000, and generally decreases to about 2.4 by late 2001. It then generally increases to about 3.4 by 2004, and generally decreases to end at about1.25.


Figure: Days' Supply of Light Vehicles

Line chart, by days, 1998 to August 2009. There are two series, "Using sales in current month" and "Using 3-month moving average of sales". These two seriestrack closely together throughout the chart, beginning at about 68. They then generally decrease to about 54 by mid-1998, and generally increase to about 79 bylate 2000. They then generally decrease to about 40 by 2001, and generally increase to about 83 by mid-2004. They then generally decrease to about 47 by mid-2005, and generally increase to about 100 by early 2009. They then generally decrease to end at about 37.

Source: Constructed from Ward's Communications data. Adjusted using FRB seasonals.

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures

(Percent change from preceding comparable period)

Category

2008 2009 2009

H2 Q1 Q2 June July Aug.


Total real PCE1 -3.3 .6 -1.0 .1 .2 n.a.

Motor vehicles -31.1 9.6 -6.1 2.4 8.7 18.0

Goods ex. motor vehicles -6.6 1.9 -2.9 .0 -.2 1.0

Services -.4 -.3 .2 .1 .1 n.a.

Ex. energy -.5 -.2 .7 .1 .2 n.a.

Memo:

Real PCE control2 -6.8 1.3 -2.5 .1 .0 .9

Nominal retail control3 -4.4 1.9 -2.8 .1 -.3 .7

1. The values for Q2, June, July, and August are staff estimates based on available data. The semiannual values are Q4/Q2. Return to table

2. Durables excluding motor vehicles, nondurables excluding gasoline, and food services. Return to table

3. Total sales less outlays at building material and supply stores, automobile and other motor vehicle dealers, and gasoline stations. Return to table

n.a. Not available.

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Figure: Change in Real PCE Goods

Line chart showing 6-month moving average, by percent, 1991 to August 2009. A vertical line indicates the NBER Peak in December 2007. The series begins atabout -0.55 and generally increases to about 0.72 by early 1999. It then generally decreases to about -0.62 by early 2009, and generally increases to end at about-0.02. It is at about 0.2 at the time of the NBER peak.

There is a second line chart, by percent, 2006 to August 2009. There are two series, "6-month moving average" and "Monthly". 6-month moving average begins atabout 0.3 and generally decreases to about 0.1 by mid-2006. It then generally increases to about 0.4 by 2006, and generally decreases to about -0.6 by late 2008.It then generally increases to end at about -0.05. Monthly begins at about 1.4 and generally decreases to about -0.65 by 2006. It then generally increases to about1.2 by late 2006, and generally decreases to about -1.9 by late 2008. It then generally increases to end at about 2.4.

Note: Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER): July 1990-March 1991, and March 2001-November 2001. The NBERpeak is the last business cycle peak as defined by the NBER.


Figure: Change in Real PCE Services

Line chart showing 6-month moving average, by percent, 1990 to July 2009. A vertical line indicates the NBER Peak in December 2007. The series begins atabout 0.37 and generally decreases to about -0.07 by early 1991. It then generally increases to about 0.5 by early 2000, and generally decreases to about 0.06 by2001. It then generally increases to about 0.34 by late 2004, and generally decreases to about -0.09 by 2008. It then generally increases to end at about 0.02. It isat about 0.1 at the time of the NBER peak.

There is a second line chart, by percent, 2006 to July 2009. There are two series, "6-month moving average" and "Monthly". 6-month moving average begins atabout 0.16 and generally increases to about 0.3 by early 2007. It then generally decreases to about -0.1 by 2008, and generally increases to end at about -0.0.Monthly begins at about -0.12 and generally increases to about 0.59 by early 2006. It then fluctuates but generally decreases to about -0.35 by 2008, and generallyincreases to about 0.28 by 2008. It then generally decreases to about -0.1 by late 2008, and generally increases to end at about 0.1.

Note: Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER): July 1990-March 1991, and March 2001-November 2001. The NBERpeak is the last business cycle peak as defined by the NBER.


Fundamentals of Household Spending

Figure: Household Net Worth and Dow Jones Total Market Index

Line chart, 1999 to 2009. There are two series, "Ratio of household net worth to DPI", a ratio, and "Total Market Index", an index. These two series use twodifferent scales. Ratio of household net worth to DPI begins at about 5.75 and generally increases to about 6.7 by late 1999. It then generally decreases to about5.0 by 2002, and generally increases to about 6.4 by early 2007. It then generally decreases to about 4.5 by early 2009, and generally increases to end at about4.7 by 2009:Q2. Total Market Index begins at about 11500 and generally increases to about 14500 by 2000. It then generally decreases to about 7700 by 2002,and generally increases to about 15800 by 2007. It then generally decreases to about 7600 by early 2009, and generally increases to end at about 10600 bySeptember 15, 2009.

Note: The value of "ratio of household net worth to DPI" for 2004:Q4 excludes the effect on income of the one-time Microsoft dividend in December 2004.

Source: Federal Reserve Board; U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Wall Street Journal.

Figure: Change in Real Disposable Personal income

Line chart, by 12-month percent change, 1999 to July 2009. The series begins at about 4.5 and generally decreases to about 2 by 1999. It then generallyincreases to about 6 by 2000, and generally decreases to about 0.6 by late 2002. It then generally increases to about 5 by late 2006, and generally decreases toabout -0.5 by early 2008. It then generally increases to about 4.8 by 2008, generally decreases to about -1.8 by mid-2009, and generally increases to end at about0.6.

Note: Values for December 2004 and December 2005 exclude the effect on income of the one-time Microsoft dividend in December 2004.


Figure: Personal Saving Rate

Line chart, by percent, 1999 to July 2009. The series begins at about 4.6 and generally decreases to about 2 by 1999. It then generally increases to about 4.8 by2001, and generally decreases to about 1 by late 2001. It then generally increases to about 4.4 by 2002, and generally decreases to about 0.7 by 2005. It thengenerally increases to about 6 by 2009, and generally decreases to end at about 4.2.

Note: The value for December 2004 excludes the effect on income of the one-time Microsoft dividend in that month.


Figure: Target Federal Funds Rate and 10-Year Treasury Yield

Line chart, by percent, 1999 to September 15, 2009. There are two series, "Treasury yield" and "Federal funds rate". Treasury yield begins at about 4.7 andgenerally increases to about 6.8 by early 2000. It then generally decreases to about 2.1 by late 2008, and generally increases to end at about 3.5. Federal fundsrate begins at about 4.7 and generally increases to about 6.5 by 2000. It then generally decreases to about 1 by 2003, and generally increases 5.2 by 2006. It thengenerally decreases to end at about 0.1.

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

Figure: Consumer Confidence

Line chart, 1990 to 2009. A vertical line indicates the NBER Peak in December 2007. There are two series, "Reuters/Michigan", 1966=100, and "ConferenceBoard", 1985=100. These two series use two difference scales. Reuters/Michigan begins at about 93 and generally decreases to about 62 by 1990. It thengenerally increases to about 112 by early 2000, and generally decreases to about 55 by late 2008. It then generally increases to end at about 70 by September. Itis at about 92 at the time of the NBER peak. Conference Board begins at about 106 and generally decreases to about 48 by early 1992. It then generally increasesto about 144 by early 2000, and generally decreases to about 62 by 2003. It then generally increases to about 112 by 2007, and generally decreases to about 25by early 2009. It then generally increases to end at about 52 by August. It is at about 90 at the time of the NBER peak.

Note: September 2009 value is preliminary. Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER): July 1990-March 1991, andMarch 2001-November 2001. The NBER peak is the last business cycle peak as defined by the NBER.

Source: Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers; Conference Board.

Private Housing Activity

(Millions of units, seasonally adjusted; annual rate except as noted)

2009

Sector 2008Q1 Q2 May June July

All units

Starts .91 .53 .54 .55 .59 .58

Permits .91 .53 .53 .52 .57 .56

Single-family units

Starts .62 .36 .43 .41 .48 .49

Permits .58 .36 .41 .41 .43 .46

Adjusted permits1 .58 .37 .42 .42 .45 .47

New homes

Sales .49 .34 .37 .36 .40 .43

Months' supply2 10.68 11.61 9.55 9.71 8.51 7.51

Existing homes

Sales 4.35 4.12 4.24 4.22 4.33 4.61

Months' supply2 9.98 9.69 8.80 8.82 8.39 8.03

Multifamily units

Starts .28 .17 .11 .14 .11 .09

Built for rent .22 .14 .10 n.a. n.a. n.a.

Built for sale .07 .03 .02 n.a. n.a. n.a.

Permits .33 .17 .12 .11 .14 .10

Condos and co-ops

Existing home sales .56 .47 .52 .50 .56 .63

1. Adjusted permits equal permit issuance plus total starts outside of permit-issuing areas. Return to table

2. At current sales rate; expressed as the ratio of seasonally adjusted inventories to seasonally adjusted sales. Quarterly and annual figures are averages of monthly figures. Return to table

n.a. Not available.

Source: Census Bureau.

Figure: Private Housing Starts and Permits

Line chart, by millions of units (seasonally adjusted annual rate), 1999 to July 2009. There are three series, "Single-family starts", "Single-family adjusted permits",and "Multifamily starts". Single-family starts and Single-family adjusted permits track closely together throughout the chart. They begin at about 1.34 and generallydecrease to about 1.18 by mid-2000. They then generally increase to about 1.82 by 2005, and generally decrease to end at about 0.5. Multifamily starts begins atabout 0.4 and generally decreases to about 0.3 by mid-1999. It then generally increases to about 0.5 by early 2000, and fluctuates but generally decreases to endat about 0.1.

Note: Adjusted permits equal permit issuance plus total starts outside of permit-issuing areas.


Indicators of Single-Family Housing

Figure: New Single-Family Home Sales

Line chart, by millions of units (annual rate), 2001 to 2009. There are two series, "Total" and "Large homebuilders". These two series use two different scales. Totalbegins at about 0.95 and generally increases to about 1.4 by mid-2005. It then generally decreases to about 0.33 by early 2009, and generally increases to end atabout 0.44 by July. Large homebuilders begins at about 0.23 and generally increases to about 0.37 by mid-2005. It then generally decreases to end at about 0.1by August.

Source: For total, Census Bureau; for large homebuilders, National Association of Home Builders.

Figure: Inventories of New Homes and Months' Supply

Line chart, 2001 to July 2009. There are two series, "Inventories of new homes", which is by thousands of units, and "Months' supply", which is by months. Thesetwo series use two different scales. Inventories of new homes begins at about 300 and generally increases to about 575 by mid-2006. It then generally decreasesto end at about 270. Months' supply begins at about 3.8 and generally increases to about 4.3 by 2001. It then generally decreases to about 3.5 by 2003, andgenerally increases to about 11.2 by early 2009. It then generally decreases to end at about 8.2.

Note: Months' supply is calculated using the 3-month moving average of sales.


Figure: Existing Single-Family Home Sales

Line chart, 2001 to July 2009. There are two series, "Existing home sales", which is by millions of units (annual rate), and "Pending home sales", an index(2001=100). Existing home sales begins at about 4.55 and generally increases to about 6.3 by 2005. It then generally decreases to about 4.0 by early 2009, andgenerally increases to end at about 4.6. Pending home sales begins at about 103 and generally increases to about 107 by early 2001. It then generally decreasesto about 90 by 2001, and generally increases to about 127 by 2005. It then generally decreases to about 80 by early 2009, and generally increases to end at about97.

Source: National Association of Realtors.

Figure: Mortgage Rates

Line chart showing 30-year conforming FRM, by percent, 2001 to September 9, 2009. The series begins at about 7.1 and generally decreases to about 5.25 bymid-2003. It then generally increases to about 6.75 by mid-2006, and generally decreases to about 4.75 by 2009. It then generally increases to about 5.5 by 2009,and generally decreases to end at about 5.1.

Note: 2-week moving average.

Source: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation.

Figure: Prices of Existing Homes

Line chart, by percent change from year earlier, 2001 to 2009. There are three series, "LP price index", "Monthly FHFA purchase-only index", and "20-cityS&P/Case-Shiller monthly price index". LP price index begins at about 9.8 and generally increases to about 17.5 by early 2005. It then generally decreases toabout -20 by early 2009, and generally increases to end at about -12.5 by July. Monthly FHFA purchase-only index begins at about 7 and generally increases toabout 10 by 2005. It then generally decreases to about -8 by late 2008, and generally increases to end at about -5 by June. 20-city S&P/Case-Shiller monthly priceindex begins at about 12.5 and generally decreases to about 7.5 by early 2002. It then generally increases to about 17.5 by 2004, and generally decreases toabout -18 by late 2008. It then generally increases to end at about -15.

Note: LoanPerformance plans to publish its price index in late September. Data are confidential until then.

Source: For FHFA, Federal Housing Finance Agency; for S&P/Case-Shiller, Standard & Poor's; for LP, LoanPerformance, a division of First American CoreLogic.

Figure: House Price Expectations

Line chart, a diffusion index, 2007 to September 2009. There are two series, "5 years ahead" and "1 year ahead". 5 years ahead begins at about 65 and generallydecreases to about 43 by 2008. It then generally increases to about 64 by 2009, and generally decreases to end at about 55. 1 year ahead begins at about 30 andgenerally decreases to about -20 by 2009. It then generally increases to end at about 10.

Note: Diffusion index is constructed by subtracting expectations of decrease from expectations of increase. September 2009 values are preliminary.


Orders and Shipments of Nondefense Capital Goods

(Percent change; seasonally adjusted current dollars)

Category

2009

Q1 Q2 May June July


Shipments -28.1 -17.5 -1.0 1.1 1.1

Excluding aircraft -35.4 -14.4 -.4 1.4 .8

Computers and peripherals -.8 -8.1 -.5 .3 2.7

Communications equipment -47.3 -3.5 -.7 10.8 6.6

All other categories1 -36.7 -15.9 -.4 .7 .1

Orders -49.1 13.3 9.1 -.2 8.6

Excluding aircraft -44.2 3.8 4.3 3.8 -.3

Computers and peripherals -18.4 13.0 15.9 .5 -2.9

Communications equipment -58.7 48.2 7.2 10.2 5.1

All other categories1 -44.7 -.6 2.9 3.5 -.6

Memo:

Shipments of complete aircraft2 40.3 36.8 35.8 36.0 34.1

1. Excludes most terrestrial transportation equipment. Return to table

2. From Census Bureau, Current Industrial Reports; billions of dollars, annual rate. Return to table


Figure: Communications Equipment

Line chart, by billions of chained (2005) dollars, ratio scale, 2000 to July 2009. There are two series, "Shipments" and "Orders". Shipments begins at about 9 andgenerally increases to about 10 by late 2000. It then generally decreases to about 5 by early 2003, and generally increases to about 7 by mid-2006. It thengenerally decreases to about 5 by 2009, and generally increases to end at about 6.5. Orders begins at about 10 and generally increases to about 14 by 2000. Itthen generally decreases to about 2.8 by 2002, and generally increases to about 9 by early 2006. It then generally decreases to about 4.5 by early 2009, andgenerally increases to end at about 7.5.

Note: Shipments and orders are deflated by a price index that is derived from the quality-adjusted price indexes of the Bureau of Economic Analysis and uses the producer price index forcommunications equipment for monthly interpolation.


Figure: Non-High-Tech, Nontransportation Equipment

Line chart, by billions of chained (2005) dollars, ratio scale, 2000 to July 2009. There are two series, "Orders" and "Shipments". Orders begins at about 46.5 andgenerally decreases to about 36 by early 2002. It then generally increases to about 49 by 2006, and generally decreases to end at about 35. Shipments begins atabout 44 and generally increases to about 45 by 2000. It then generally decreases to about 37 by late 2001, and generally increases to about 46 by late 2006. Itthen generally decreases to end at about 36.

Note: Shipments and orders are deflated by the staff price indexes for the individual equipment types included in this category. Indexes are derived from the quality-adjusted price indexes of theBureau of Economic Analysis.


Figure: Computers and Peripherals

Line chart, 2000 to 2009. There are two series, "Industrial production", an index (2000=100), and "Real M3 shipments", which is by billions of chained (2005)dollars, ratio scale. These two series use two different scales. Industrial production begins at about 98 and generally increases to about 230 by 2008. It thengenerally decreases to end at about 164 by August. Real M3 shipments begins at about 8.4 and generally increases to about 16.6 by 2006. It then generallydecreases to about 12.7 by late 2006, and generally increases to about 18 by early 2008. It then generally decreases to about 14 by late 2008, and generallyincreases to end at about 16 by July.

Note: Shipments are deflated by the staff price index for computers and peripheral equipment, which is derived from the quality-adjusted price indexes of the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Source: Census Bureau; FRB Industrial Production.

Figure: Medium and Heavy Trucks

Line chart, by thousands of units, ratio scale, 2000 to August 2009. There are two series, "Net new orders of class 5-8 trucks" and "Sales of class 4-8 trucks". Netnew orders of class 5-8 trucks begins at about 400 and generally decreases to about 290 by 2001. It then generally increases to about 540 by 2002, and generallydecreases to about 255 by 2002. It then generally increases to about 960 by 2006, and generally decreases to about 160 by early 2009. It then generally increasesto end at about 280. Sales of class 4-8 trucks begins at about 530 and generally decreases to about 290 by early 2003. It then generally increases to about 560 bylate 2006, and generally decreases to end at about 190.

Note: Annual rate, FRB seasonals.

Source: For sales, Ward's Communications; for orders, ACT Research.

Fundamentals of Equipment and Software Investment

Note: In each panel, shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER): July 1990-March 1991,and March 2001-November 2001. A vertical line indicates the NBER Peak in December 2007. The NBER peak is the last business cycle peak as defined by theNBER.

Figure: Real Business Output

Line chart, by 4-quarter percent change, 1990 to 2009:Q2. The series begins at about 3 and generally decreases to about -2 by early 1991. It then generallyincreases to about 6 by 2000, and generally decreases to about 0 by late 2001. It then generally increases to about 5 by early 2004, and generally decreases toend at about -5.5. It is at about 2.5 at the time of the NBER peak.

Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Figure: User Cost of Capital

Line chart, by 4-quarter percent change, 1990 to 2009:Q2. There are two series, "Non-high-tech" and "High-tech". Non-high-tech begins at about -1.5 andgenerally increases to about 1.5 by late 1990. It then generally decreases to about -7.5 by 1991, and generally increases to about 13 by late 1994. It then generallydecreases to about -11.5 by 2003, and generally increases to about 19 by late 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 12. It is at about 0 at the time ofthe NBER peak. High-tech begins at about -7 and generally increases to about -6.5 by late 1990. It then generally decreases to about -12.5 by 1992, and generallyincreases to about -1 by late 1994. It then generally decreases to about -14 by 2003, and generally increases to about 2 by late 2008. It then generally decreasesto end at about -2.5. It is at about -5 at the time of the NBER peak.

Source: Staff calculation.

Figure: Corporate Bond Yields

Line chart, by percent, 1990 to September 2009. There are two series, "10-year high-yield" and "10-year BBB". 10-year high-yield begins at about 14.5 andgenerally decreases to about 9 by 1996. It then generally increases to about 13.8 by late 1999, and generally decreases to about 7.2 by early 2004. It thengenerally increases to about 17.9 by late 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 10.1. It is at about 9.7 at the time of the NBER peak. 10-year BBB beginsat about 10 and generally decreases to about 7 by 1992. It then generally increases to about 9 by late 1993, and generally decreases to about 5.2 by late 2003. Itthen generally increases to about 10 by late 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 6.5. It is at about 6.5 at the time of the NBER peak.

Note: End of month. September value as of September 15.

Source: Merrill Lynch.

Figure: NFIB: Survey on Loan Availability

Line chart, by percent, 1990 to August 2009. There are two series, "Credit expected to be tighter" and "Credit more difficult to obtain". These two series use twodifferent scales. Credit expected to be tighter begins at about 8 and generally increases to about 12.5 by early 1991. It then generally decreases to about 0 byearly 1997, and generally increases to about 16.5 by late 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 12. It is at about 8.5 at the time of the NBER peak.Credit more difficult to obtain begins at about 7 and generally increases to about 13 by early 1991. It then generally decreases to about 0 by 1998, and generallyincreases to end at about 13.8. It is at about 6.5 at the time of the NBER peak.

Note: Of borrowers who sought credit in the past 3 months, the proportion that reported or expected more difficulty in obtaining credit less the proportion that reported or expected more ease inobtaining credit. Seasonally adjusted.

Source: National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB).

Figure: Surveys of Business Conditions

Line chart, a diffusion index, 1990 to August 2009. There are two series, "ISM" and "Philadelphia Fed". These two series use two different scales. ISM begins atabout 46 and generally decreases to about 37.5 by early 1991. It then generally increases to about 57.5 by late 1993, and generally decreases to about 37.5 bylate 2000. It then generally increases to about 58 by 2003, generally decreases to about 33 by late 2008, and generally increases to end at about 54. It is at about47.5 at the time of the NBER peak. Philadelphia Fed begins at about 40 and generally decreases to about 25 by 1990. It then generally increases to about 70 bylate 1992, and generally decreases to about 33 by early 2000. It then generally increases to about 68 by early 2003, generally decreases to about 30 by late 2008,and generally increases to end at about 52. It is at about 48 at the time of the NBER peak.

Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM), Manufacturing ISM Report on Business; Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey.

Nonresidential Construction and Indicators

(All spending series are seasonally adjusted at an annual rate; nominal CPIP deflated by BEA prices through Q1 and by staff projection thereafter)

Figure: Total Structures

Line chart, by billions of chained (2005) dollars, 1999 to July 2009. The series begins at about 324 and generally increases to about 361 by 2000. It then generallydecreases to about 250 by 2004, and generally increases to about 360 by 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 320.


Figure: Office, Commercial, Communication, and Other

Line chart, by billions of chained (2005) dollars, 1999 to July 2009. There are four series, "Other", "Commercial", "Office", and "Communication". Other begins atabout 88 and generally increases to about 90 by 2000. It then generally decreases to about 75 by 2005, and generally increases to about 107 by 2008. It thengenerally decreases to end at about 93. Commercial begins at about 75 and generally increases to about 86 by early 2000. It then generally decreases to about 65by early 2003, and generally increases to about 79 by 2007. It then generally decreases to end at about 45. Office begins at about 60 and generally decreases to

about 55 by early 2000. It then generally increases to about 74 by late 2000, and generally decreases to about 34 by 2003. It then generally increases to about 48by 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 35. Communication begins at about 17 and generally increases to about 27 by 2000. It then generally decreasesto about 15 by early 2004, and generally increases to about 25 by 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 16.

Note: Other consists of structures for religious organizations, education, lodging, amusement and recreation, transportation, and health care.


Figure: Manufacturing and Power

Line chart, by billions of chained (2005) dollars, 1999 to July 2009. There are two series, "Power" and "Manufacturing". Power begins at about 32 and generallyincreases to about 38 by early 1999. It then generally decreases to about 22.5 by 1999, and generally increases to about 53.5 by late 2001. It then generallydecreases to about 23 by 2004, and generally increases to end at about 63. Manufacturing begins at about 50 and generally decreases to about 22.5 by early2003. It then generally increases to end at about 67.5.


Figure: Drilling and Mining Indicators

Line chart, 1999 to 2009. There are two series, "Footage drilled", which is by millions of feet, and "Drilling rigs in operation", which is by number. These two seriesuse two different scales. Footage drilled begins at about 7.5 and generally increases to about 32 by late 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 14.Drilling rigs in operation begins at about 600 and generally increases to about 1290 by early 2001. It then generally decreases to about 800 by 2002, and generallyincreases to about 1930 by 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 990.

Note: The September readings for drilling rigs are based on data through September 11, 2009. Both series are seasonally adjusted by FRB staff.

Source: For footage drilled, U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Agency; for drilling rigs, Baker Hughes.

Figure: Vacancy Rates

Line chart, by percent, 1999 to 2009:Q2. There are three series, "Office", "Industrial", and "Retail". Office begins at about 9.5 and generally decreases to about 8 byearly 2000. It then generally increases to about 17 by early 2003, and generally decreases to about 12.5 by mid-2007. It then generally increases to end at about15.5. Industrial begins at about 7.8 and generally decreases to about 7 by 2000. It then generally increases to about 11.8 by 2003, and generally decreases toabout 9.2 by 2007. It then generally increases to end at about 13.5. Retail begins at about 8 and generally decreases to about 7 by late 2000. It then generallyincreases to about 8.4 by 2002, and generally decreases to about 7.5 by early 2006. It then generally increases to end at about 11.8.

Note: Industrial space includes both manufacturing structures and warehouses.

Source: Torto Wheaton Research.

Figure: Architectural Billings and Nonresidential Construction Employment

Line chart, 1999 to 2009. There are two series, "Billings", a diffusion index, and "Change in employment", which is by percent. These two series use two differentscales. Billings begins at about 55 and generally decreases to about 43.5 by late 2001. It then generally increases to about 59 by 2005, and generally decreases toabout 33.5 by early 2009. It then generally increases to end at about 41.5 by July. Change in employment begins at about 0.0 by early 2001, and generallydecreases to about -0.75 by 2002. It then generally increases to about 0.8 by 2006, and generally decreases to about -2.0 by early 2009. It then generallyincreases to end at about -1.25.

Note: Both series are 3-month moving averages. Employment consists of industrial, commercial, and specialty trade construction.

Source: For billings, American Institute of Architects; for employment, U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Nonfarm Inventory Investment

(Billions of dollars; seasonally adjusted annual rate)

Measure and sector2008 2009

Q4 Q1 Q2 May June July

Real inventory investment (chained 2005 dollars)

Total nonfarm business -35.7 -114.9 -163.2 … … …

Motor vehicles -.7 -63.6 -48.1 … … …

Nonfarm ex. motor vehicles -35.1 -51.3 -115.1 … … …

Manufacturing and trade ex. wholesale and retail motor vehicles and parts -19.8 -49.3 -111.0 -86.3 -138.2e n.a.

Manufacturing 8.2 -28.9 -40.0 -26.7 -45.3e n.a.

Wholesale trade ex. motor vehicles & parts -10.2 -8.8 -52.4 -36.8 -81.8e n.a.

Retail trade ex. motor vehicles & parts -17.8 -11.6 -18.6 -22.8 -11.0e n.a.

Book-value inventory investment (current dollars)

Manufacturing and trade ex. wholesale and retail motor vehicles and parts -155.9 -143.2 -150.2 -124.9 -178.0 -121.4

Manufacturing -65.2 -77.3 -63.6 -48.4 -68.9 -43.8

Wholesale trade ex. motor vehicles & parts -55.7 -47.3 -62.9 -49.8 -90.6 -55.3

Retail trade ex. motor vehicles & parts -34.9 -18.6 -23.7 -26.8 -18.5 -22.3

n.a. Not available.

… Not applicable.

e Staff estimate of real inventory investment based on revised book-value data. Return to table

Source: For real inventory investment, U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; for book-value data, Census Bureau.

Figure: Inventory Ratios ex. Motor Vehicles

Line chart, by months, 2000 to 2009. There are two series, "Staff flow-of-goods system" and "Census book-value data". Staff flow-of-goods system begins at about1.77 and generally decreases to about 1.53 by late 2007. It then generally increases to end at about 1.65 by August. Census book-value data begins at about 1.35and generally increases to about 1.41 by 2001. It then generally decreases to about 1.17 by late 2005, and generally increases to about 1.38 by early 2009. It thengenerally decreases to about 1.32 by July.

Note: Flow-of-goods system covers total industry ex. motor vehicles and parts, and inventories are relative to consumption. Census data cover manufacturing and trade ex. motor vehicles andparts, and inventories are relative to sales.

Source: Census Bureau; staff calculation.

Figure: ISM Customers' Inventories: Manufacturing

Line chart, an index, 2000 to August 2009. The series begins at about 46.8 and generally increases to about 56 by late 2000. It then generally decreases to about37.5 by 2004, and generally increases to about 57.5 by late 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 39.

Note: A number above 50 indicates inventories are "too high".

Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM), Manufacturing ISM Report on Business.

Federal Government Budget

(Unified basis; adjusted for payment-timing shifts and financial transactions; data from Monthly Treasury Statement)

Figure: Surplus or Deficit (-)

Line chart, by billions of dollars, 1996 to August 2009. Data are 12-month moving sums. The series begins at about -160 and generally increases to about 290 by2001. It then generally decreases to about -440 by 2004, and generally increases to about -150 by 2007. It then generally decreases to end at about -1095. Thereis a second series (thin line) that begins at about -450 in late 2008, and generally decreases to end at about -1330.

Note: Thin line includes deficit effects of financial transactions related to Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) and government-sponsored enterprise equity purchase programs.

Figure: Outlays and Receipts

Line chart, by percent change from year earlier, 1996 to August 2009. Data are 12-month moving sums. There are two series, "Receipts" and "Outlays". Receiptsbegins at about 7.5 and generally increases to about 10 and generally decreases to about 5 by 1999. It then generally increases to about 12 by 2000, andgenerally decreases to about -12.5 by mid-2002. It then generally increases to about 15 by 2005, and generally decreases to end at about -15. Outlays begins atabout 4 and generally decreases to about 1.5 by 1998. It then generally increases to about 8 by 2006, and generally decreases to about 2.8 by 2007. It thengenerally increases to end at about 10.

Recent Federal Outlays and Receipts(Billions of dollars except as noted; adjusted for payment-timing shifts and financial transactions)

Function or source

Sum of July-August 12 months ending in August

2008 2009 Percent change 2008 2009 Percent

change

Outlays 496.8 556.3 12.0 2,939.4 3,238.7 10.2

Net interest 49.2 40.6 -17.6 247.9 204.0 -17.7

National defense 105.3 108.0 2.6 615.2 660.4 7.4

Major transfers1 270.4 320.0 18.3 1,633.9 1,866.4 14.2

Other 71.9 87.8 22.1 442.4 507.9 14.8

Receipts 317.5 297.0 -6.4 2,536.8 2,157.9 -14.9

Individual income and payroll taxes 266.3 254.1 -4.6 1,985.7 1,791.6 -9.8

Corporate income taxes 14.2 7.5 -47.0 327.4 163.1 -50.2

Other 37.0 35.4 -4.5 223.7 203.3 -9.1

Surplus or deficit (-) -179.3 -259.3 … -402.7 -1,080.8 …

Memo:

Unadjusted surplus or deficit (-) -214.7 -292.1 … -387.7 -1,332.6 …

1. Includes Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and income security programs. Return to table

… Not applicable.

CBO Baseline Budget Projections and Economic Assumptions

Actual 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Average

2015-19

Budget projections1 (fiscal years)

Billions of dollars

Receipts 2524 2100 2264 2717 3010 3221 3403 3913

Outlays 2983 3688 3644 3638 3600 3759 3961 4542

Surplus or deficit (-) -459 -1587 -1381 -921 -590 -538 -558 -630

Debt held by public2 5803 7612 8868 9782 10382 10870 11439 14324

Percent of GDP

Receipts 17.7 14.9 15.7 18.1 19.1 19.4 19.6 20.0

Outlays 21.0 26.1 25.2 24.3 22.8 22.6 22.9 23.2

Surplus or deficit (-) -3.2 -11.2 -9.6 -6.1 -3.7 -3.2 -3.2 -3.2

Debt held by public2 40.8 53.8 61.4 65.2 65.9 65.5 66.0 67.8

Economic assumptions3 (calendar years)

Percent change, year over year

Nominal GDP 3.3 -.7 2.9 4.0 5.4 5.2 4.1 4.1

Real GDP 1.1 -2.5 1.7 3.5 5.0 4.5 3.0 2.4

PCE prices 3.3 .4 1.5 .8 .7 .8 1.1 1.7

Core PCE prices 2.2 1.7 1.1 .6 .6 .8 1.1 1.6

CPI-U 3.8 -.5 1.7 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.5 2.0

Core CPI-U 2.3 1.7 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.5 2.0

Percent, annual average

Unemployment rate 5.8 9.3 10.2 9.1 7.2 5.6 4.9 4.8

Treasury yields

3-month 1.4 .2 .6 1.7 3.1 4.1 4.5 4.7

10-year 3.7 3.3 4.1 4.4 4.7 5.0 5.3 5.6

1. The CBO calculates the cost of the TARP by estimating the present value (or accrual value) of all of the program's financial transactions, adjusted for market risk. Also, the CBO includes all ofthe costs and revenues associated with the GSEs (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) in the budget in a manner consistent with its assumption that these institutions should be treated as part of thefederal government. Return to table

2. Debt held by the public at the end of the period. Return to table

3. The CBO did not update its economic assumptions to reflect the comprehensive NIPA revision released by the BEA in July 2009. The CBO still used a reference year of 2000 for its price andGDP projections, and its projections also do not reflect the BEA's reclassification affecting core PCE prices. Return to table

Source: Congressional Budget Office (2009), The Budget and Economic Outlook: An Update (August).

Administration Budget Deficit Projections and Economic Assumptions

Actual 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Average

2015-19

Budget projections (fiscal years)

Billions of dollars

Receipts 2524 2074 2264 2591 2945 3161 3365 3987

Outlays 2983 3653 3766 3715 3741 3936 4143 4802

Deficit (-) -459 -1580 -1502 -1123 -796 -775 -778 -815

Total debt held by public1 5803 7856 9575 10590 11443 12281 13126 17493

Percent of GDP

Receipts 17.7 14.7 15.7 17.1 18.4 18.6 18.7 19.0

Outlays 21.0 25.9 26.1 24.6 23.3 23.2 23.0 22.9

Deficit (-) -3.2 -11.2 -10.4 -7.4 -5.0 -4.6 -4.3 -3.9

Total debt held by public1 40.8 55.7 66.3 70.0 71.4 72.3 72.9 76.5

Economic assumptions (calendar years)

Percent change, fourth quarter to fourth quarter

Nominal GDP 1.2 .2 4.1 5.8 6.1 6.1 5.8 4.7

Real GDP -1.9 -1.7 2.9 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.0 2.9

GDP price index 1.9 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8

CPI-U 1.5 .5 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1

Percent, annual average

Unemployment rate 5.8 9.3 9.8 8.6 7.7 6.8 5.9 5.4

Treasury yields

3-month 1.4 .2 1.3 2.6 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.0

10-year 3.7 3.6 4.5 4.9 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2

1. Debt held by the public at the end of the period. Return to table

Source: Office of Management and Budget (2009), Mid-Session Review: Budget of the U.S. Government, Fiscal Year 2010 (August).

State and Local Indicators

Figure: Real Spending on Consumption and Investment

Line chart, by percent change, annual rate, 1999 to 2009:Q2. There are two series, "Spending", and "4-quarter moving average". Spending begins at about 3.5 andgenerally increases to about 5 by late 1999. It then generally decreases to about 0 by 2000, and generally increases to about 9 by 2001. It then generallydecreases to about -2.8 by mid-2001, and generally increases to about 8.8 by late 2001. It then generally decreases to about -1.5 by late 2008, and generallyincreases to end at about 3.8. 4-quarter moving average begins at about 5.8 and generally decreases to about -1 by 2005. It then generally increases to about 2by early 2007, and generally decreases to end at about 0.

Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; national income and product accounts.

Figure: Net Change in Employment

Bar chart, by thousands of jobs, monthly average, late 1998 to 2009:Q3. The series begins at about 25 and generally increases to about 40 by early 1999. It thengenerally decreases to about 25 by 2000, and generally increases to about 46 by 2001. It then generally decreases to about 0 by 2003, and generally increases toabout 22 by 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about -25.

Note: Q3 is the average of July and August.

Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation.

Figure: Real Construction

Line chart, by billions of chained (2005) dollars, annual rate, 1999 to 2009:Q2. The series begins at about 195 and generally increases to about 238 by early 2002.It then generally decreases to about 215 by late 2004, and generally increases to about 232 by late 2007. It then generally decreases to about 218 by early 2009,and generally increases to end at about 230. July 2009 is marked in the time series at about 235.

Note: Nominal CPIP deflated by BEA prices through Q2 and by staff projection thereafter.

Source: Census Bureau, Construction Spending.

Figure: State Revenues

Line chart, by percent change from year earlier, 1999 to 2009:Q1. There are two series, "Individual and corporate income taxes" and "Total revenues". Individualand corporate income taxes begins at about 8.5 and generally decreases to about 4 by early 1999. It then generally increases to about 17.5 by 2000, and generallydecreases to about -20 by 2002. It then generally increases to about 27 by 2005, and generally decreases to end at about -17.5. Total revenues begins at about6.5 and generally decreases to about 4 by early 1999. It then generally increases to about 12.5 by early 2000, and generally decreases to about -10 by 2002. Itthen generally increases to about 16.5 by 2005, and generally decreases to end at about -12.

Source: Census Bureau, Quarterly Summary of State and Local Government Tax Revenue .

Figure: Local Revenues

Line chart, by percent change from year earlier, 1999 to 2009:Q1. There are two series, "Property taxes" and "Total revenues". Property taxes begins at about 5.5and generally decreases to about -0.5 by 2000. It then generally increases to about 23 by 2002, and generally decreases to about -7.5 by 2003. It then generallyincreases to about 16 by 2003, and generally decreases to about 2.5 by 2004. It then generally increases to about 10.5 by 2008, and generally decreases to end atabout 7.5. The total revenues curve fluctuates widely and tracks the property taxes curve fairly closely. It begins at about 2.5, reaches a peak of about 15 in 2002,and decreases to about -5 in 2003 before recovering to about 13 later that year. It then generally decreases and ends at about 4 in 2009:Q1.

Source: Census Bureau, Quarterly Summary of State and Local Government Tax Revenue .

Price Measures

(Percent change)

Measures

12-month change 3-month change 1-month change

Aug. 2008 Aug. 2009Annual rate Monthly rate

May 2009 Aug. 2009 July 2009 Aug. 2009

CPI

Total 5.4 -1.5 -.2 4.9 .0 .4

Food 6.1 .4 -2.2 -.5 -.3 .1

Energy 27.2 -23.0 -18.9 57.1 -.4 4.6

Ex. food and energy 2.5 1.4 2.3 1.4 .1 .1

Core goods .6 1.1 4.4 1.0 .2 -.3

Core services 3.3 1.6 1.5 1.6 .0 .2

Shelter 2.4 .9 1.1 -.2 -.2 .1

Other services 4.6 2.5 1.7 3.9 .3 .4

Memo: core ex. tobacco 2.5 1.2 1.5 1.3 .1 .1

Chained CPI (n.s.a.) 1 4.6 -1.5 … … … …

Ex. food and energy 1 2.1 1.0 … … … …

PCE prices 2

Total 4.4 -.5 .2 3.8 .0 .4

Food and bev. at home 6.7 -.5 -4.3 -.9 -.4 .1

Energy 28.4 -23.9 -19.4 64.7 -.4 4.9

Ex. food and energy 2.7 1.3 1.8 1.5 .1 .1

Core goods .6 1.1 3.6 -.1 -.1 -.1

Core services 3.4 1.5 1.2 2.1 .1 .2

Housing services 2.8 1.7 2.0 .3 .0 .1

Other services 3.5 1.4 1.0 2.6 .2 .3

Memo: core ex. tobacco 2.6 1.1 1.0 1.4 .1 .1

Core market-based 2.6 1.7 2.1 1.3 .1 .1

Core non-market-based 2.7 -.8 .2 2.8 .3 .2

PPI

Total finished goods 9.7 -4.3 -2.1 11.0 -.9 1.7

Food 9.0 -4.1 -3.4 .0 -1.5 .4

Energy 27.6 -21.1 -10.1 59.6 -2.4 8.0

Ex. food and energy 3.7 2.3 .5 2.4 -.1 .2

Core consumer goods 3.9 2.8 1.8 2.2 -.1 .1

Capital equipment 3.3 1.6 -1.0 2.3 -.2 .3

Intermediate materials 16.3 -12.3 -6.6 14.8 -.2 1.8

Ex. food and energy 11.8 -8.2 -5.2 4.8 .2 .6

Crude materials 35.4 -35.2 26.7 15.9 -4.5 3.8

Ex. food and energy 31.4 -30.0 19.4 57.2 2.9 6.0

1. Higher-frequency figures are not applicable for data that are not seasonally adjusted (n.s.a.). Return to table

2. PCE prices in August 2009 are staff estimates. Return to table

… Not applicable.

Source: For consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI), U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; for personal consumption expenditures (PCE), U.S. Dept. of Commerce,Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Consumer Prices

(12-month change except as noted; PCE prices in August are staff estimates)

Figure: PCE Prices

Line chart, by percent, 2000 to August 2009. There are two series, "Total PCE" and "Core PCE". Total begins at about 2.3 and generally increases to about 3 by2000. It then generally decreases to about 0.7 by early 2002, and generally increases to about 4 by 2005. It then generally decreases to about 1.5 by late 2006,generally increases to about 4.5 by 2008, and generally decreases to end at about -0.5. Core begins at about 1.7 and generally increases to about 2.6 by 2002. Itthen generally decreases to about 1.5 by 2003, and generally increases to about 2.8 by 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 1.4.


Figure: Measures of Core PCE

Line chart, by percent, 2000 to 2009. There are three series, "PCE excluding food and energy", "Market-based components", and "Trimmed mean". PCE excludingfood and energy begins at about 1.6 and generally increases to about 2 by 2001. It then generally decreases to about 1.2 by mid-2001, and generally increases toabout 2.5 by 2002. It then generally decreases to about 1.4 by 2003, and generally increases to about 2.7 by 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 1.4by August. Market-based components begins at about 1.3 and generally increases to about 1.9 by 2001. It then generally decreases to about 1.2 by 2003, andgenerally increases to about 2.6 by 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 1.7 by July. Trimmed mean begins at about 2 and generally increases toabout 2.6 by 2001. It then generally decreases to about 1.8 by late 2003, and generally increases to about 3 by early 2007. It then generally decreases to end atabout 1.7 by July.

Source: For trimmed mean, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; for all else, U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Figure: CPI and PCE ex. Food and Energy

Line chart, by percent, 2000 to August 2009. There are three series, "CPI", "PCE", and "CPI chained". CPI begins at about 2 and generally increases to about 2.8by late 2001. It then generally decreases to about 1.1 by late 2003, and generally increases to about 3 by 2006. It then generally decreases to end at about 1.5.PCE begins at about 1.5 and generally increases to about 2 by mid-2001. It then generally decreases to about 1.2 by 2001, and generally increases to about 2.7by mid-2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 1.4. CPI chained begins at about 1.8 by late 2000, and generally decreases to about 0.75 by late 2003. Itthen generally increases to about 2.7 by 2006, and generally decreases to end at about 1.

Source: For CPI, U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; for PCE, U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Figure: PCE Goods and Services

Line chart, by percent, 2000 to August 2009. There are two series, "Services ex. energy" and "Goods ex. food and energy". Services begins at about 2.6 andgenerally increases to about 3 by 2001. It then generally decreases to about 1.9 by mid-2001, and generally increases to about 4.1 by late 2002. It then generallydecreases to end at about 1. Goods begins at about -1 and generally increases to about 0 by early 2001. It then generally decreases to about -2.5 by 2003, andgenerally increases to end at about 1.5.


Figure: Total PCE

Line chart, by percent, 2000 to August 2009. There are two series, "Total PCE" and "3-month change, annual rate". Total PCE begins at about 2 and generallyincreases to about 3 by 2000. It then generally decreases to about 1 by late 2001, and generally increases to about 4.5 by 2008. It then generally decreases to endat about -1. 3-month change begins at about 3 and generally decreases to about -1.5 by late 2001. It then generally increases to about 8 by 2005, and generallydecreases to about -7.8 by late 2008. It then generally increases to end at about 4.


Figure: PCE excluding Food and Energy

Line chart, by percent, 2000 to August 2009. There are two series, "PCE excluding Food and Energy" and "3-month change, annual rate". PCE excluding Food andEnergy begins at about 1.5 and generally increases to about 2.7 by 2002. It then generally decreases to about 1.5 by 2003, generally increases to about 2.7 by2008, and generally decreases to end at about 1.4. 3-month change begins at about 2.1 and generally increases to about 2.8 by early 2000. It then generallydecreases to about -1.2 by 2001, and generally increases to about 4 by late 2001. It then fluctuates but generally decreases to about 0.2 by late 2008, andgenerally increases to end at about 1.5.


Energy and Food Price Indicators

(Data from U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, except as noted)

Figure: Total Gasoline Margin

Line chart, by cents per gallon, 2005 to September 7, 2009. Data are retail price less average spot crude price (regular grade seasonally adjusted by FRB staff,less average spot crude price: 60% West Texas Intermediate, 40% Maya heavy crude; includes gasoline taxes). The series begins at about 100 and generallyincreases to about 110 by early 2005. It then generally decreases to about 79 by mid-2005, and generally increases to about 167 by 2007. It then generallydecreases to about 72 by mid-2008, and generally increases to about 158 by 2008. It then generally decreases to about 72 by 2009, and generally increases toend at about 90.

Figure: Gasoline Price Decomposition

Line chart, by cents per gallon, 2005 to September 7, 2009. There are three series, "Retail price", "Rack price", and "Average spot crude price". Retail price beginsat about 195 and generally increases to about 300 by 2005. It then generally decreases to about 225 by late 2006, and generally increases to about 400 by mid-2008. It then generally decreases to about 178 by late 2008, and generally increases to end at about 250. Rack price begins at about 140 and generally increasesto about 350 by mid-2008. It then generally decreases to about 118 by late 2008, and generally increases to end at about 195. Average spot crude price begins atabout 98 and generally increases to about 330 by mid-2008. It then generally decreases to about 75 by late 2008, and generally increases to end at about 160.

Note: Retail price is regular grade seasonally adjusted by FRB staff. Average spot crude price is 60% West Texas Intermediate, 40% Maya heavy crude.

Figure: Gasoline Inventories

Line chart, by millions of barrels, late 2005 to September 11, 2009. Data are adjusted for ethanol use. The series begins at about 197 and generally increases toabout 232 by early 2007. It then generally decreases to about 198 by 2007, and generally increases to about 241 by early 2008. It then generally decreases toabout 195 by 2008, and generally increases to end at about 212.

Note: Bounds are defined as the monthly mean over the preceding five years, plus or minus the standard deviation for each month. The bounds generally track the series throughout the chart,typically being about 20 million barrels wide, with the series typically being toward the center of the bounds. Monthly data through May 2009, weekly data thereafter. The RBOB component oftotal motor gasoline inventories is adjusted for ethanol use after 2006, boosting reported stocks; estimated by FRB staff.

Figure: Natural Gas Prices

Line chart, by dollars per million BTU, 2005 to September 15, 2009. The series begins at about 5.5 and generally increases to about 15.5 by late 2005. It thengenerally decreases to about 4.2 by 2006, and generally increases to about 13.6 by 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 3.5.

Note: National average spot price.

Source: Bloomberg.

Figure: PCE: Food at Home and Core Prices

Line chart, by 12-month percent change, 2005 to August 2009. There are two series, "Food and beverages" and "Ex. food and energy". Food and beveragesbegins at about 2.1 and generally increases to about 2.7 by 2005. It then generally decreases to about 0.9 by 2006, and generally increases to about 7 by 2008. Itthen generally decreases to end at about -0.4. Ex. food and energy begins at about 2.3 and remains about constant until 2007. It then generally increases to about2.6 by mid-2008, and generally decreases to end at about 1.3.

Note: August 2009 plotted values are staff estimates.


Figure: Spot Prices of Agricultural Commodities

Line chart, by dollars per bushel, 2005 to September 15, 2009. There are three series, "Corn", "Soybeans", and "Wheat". There are two different scales, Soybeansand Wheat share one and Corn uses the other. Corn begins at about 2 and generally increases to about 7 by mid-2008. It then generally decreases to end atabout 3.2. Soybeans begins at about 5.4 and generally increases to about 7 by mid-2005. It then generally decreases to about 5 by 2006, and generally increasesto about 16 by mid-2008. It then generally decreases to about 8 by late 2008, and generally increases to end at about 10. Wheat begins at about 4 and generallyincreases to about 13.2 by early 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 4.7.

Source: Commodity Research Bureau.

Broad Measures of Inflation

(Percent change, Q2 to Q2)

Measure 2006 2007 2008 2009

Product prices

GDP price index 3.6 3.0 1.9 1.5

Less food and energy 3.6 2.7 2.4 .9

Nonfarm business chain price index 3.5 2.4 1.1 1.7

Expenditure prices

Gross domestic purchases price index 3.9 2.8 3.5 -.2

Less food and energy 3.4 2.6 2.8 .8

PCE price index 3.2 2.4 3.8 -.2

Less food and energy 2.3 2.2 2.5 1.6

PCE price index, market-based components 3.3 2.3 3.7 -.1


CPI 3.9 2.6 4.3 -.9


Chained CPI 3.6 2.4 3.8 -1.2


Median CPI 2.8 3.1 3.0 2.4

Trimmed mean CPI 2.6 2.7 3.0 1.9

Trimmed mean PCE 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.1

Source: For CPI, U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; for median and trimmed mean CPI, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland; for all else, U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau ofEconomic Analysis.

Surveys of Inflation Expectations

(Percent)

PeriodActual

CPI

Reuters/Michigan Survey Professional forecasters

42 3

inflation11 year 5 to 10 years (10 years)

Mean Median Mean Median CPI PCE

2007: Q4 4.0 4.1 3.3 3.3 2.9 2.4 2.1

2008: Q1 4.1 4.2 3.8 3.3 3.0 2.5 2.2

Q2 4.4 6.4 5.0 3.8 3.3 2.5 2.2

Q3 5.3 5.4 4.7 3.6 3.1 2.5 2.2

Q4 1.6 3.0 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.2

2009: Q1 .0 2.4 2.0 3.3 2.9 2.4 2.2

Q2 -1.2 3.4 2.9 3.1 2.9 2.5 2.3

Q3 n.a. 3.2 2.8 3.3 2.9 2.5 2.2

2009: May -1.3 3.2 2.8 3.1 2.9 2.5 2.3

June -1.4 3.9 3.1 3.2 3.0 … …

July -2.1 3.6 2.9 3.4 3.0 … …

Aug. -1.5 3.0 2.8 3.1 2.8 2.5 2.2

Sept.(p) n.a. 3.1 2.6 3.3 2.9 … …

1. Percent change from the same period in the preceding year. Return to table

2. Responses to the question, By about what percent do you expect prices to go up, on average, during the next 12 months? Return to table

3. Responses to the question, By about what percent per year do you expect prices to go up, on average, during the next 5 to 10 years? Return to table

4. Median CPI and PCE price projections. Return to table

… Not applicable.

n.a. Not available.

p Preliminary. Return to table

Source: For CPI, U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; for Reuters/Michigan Survey, Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers; for professional forecasters, the FederalReserve Bank of Philadelphia.

Measures of Expected Inflation

Figure: Survey Measures (Reuters/University of Michigan)

Line chart, by percent, 1978 to 2009:Q3. Data are quarterly. There are two series, "Median, next 5 to 10 years" and "Median, next 12 months". Median, next 5 to10 years begins at about 6.8 by early 1981, and generally decreases to about 4.8 by 1985. There is no data from late 1985 to mid-1990, where it begins at about4.5 by 1990 and generally decreases to end at about 3. Median, next 12 months begins at about 6, and generally increases to about 10.2 by 1980. It then generallydecreases to about 2.5 by 1983, and generally increases to about 4.9 by late 1990. It then generally decreases to about 1 by late 2001, and generally increases toabout 5 by 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 3.

There is a second line chart, by percent, 2005 to September 2009. Data are monthly. There are two series, "Median, next 5 to 10 years" and "Median, next 12months". Median, next 5 to 10 years begins at about 2.7 and generally increases to about 3.5 by 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 2.9. Median,next 12 months begins at about 2.9 and generally increases to about 4.7 by 2005. It then generally decreases to about 3 by late 2006, and generally increases toabout 5.2 by 2008. It then generally decreases to about 1.7 by late 2008, and generally increases to end at about 2.6.


Figure: Inputs to Models of Inflation

Line chart, by percent, 1971 to 2009:Q3. Data are quarterly. There are two series, "FRB/US long-run expectations measure for PCE inflation" and "Distributed lagof core PCE inflation". FRB/US long-run expectations measure for PCE inflation begins at about 3.2 and generally increases to about 7.8 by 1981. It then generallydecreases to end at about 2.2. Distributed lag of core PCE inflation begins at about 5 and generally decreases to about 3.5 by 1973. It then generally increases toabout 8.8 by early 1981, and generally decreases to end at about 2.1.

There is a second line chart, by percent, 2005 to 2009:Q3. Data are quarterly. There are two series, "FRB/US long-run expectations measure for PCE inflation" and"Distributed lag of core PCE inflation". FRB/US long-run expectations measure for PCE inflation begins at about 2 and remains about constant until 2007. It thengenerally increases to end at about 2.2. Distributed lag of core PCE inflation begins at about 1.8 and generally increases to about 2.5 by late 2008. It thengenerally decreases to about 1.9 by early 2009, and generally increases to end at about 2.1.

Note: The distributed lag of core PCE inflation is derived from one of the reduced-form Phillips curves used by Board staff.

Source: For the distributed lag of core PCE inflation, FRB staff calculations; for the FRB/US measure, for 2007 forward, the median projection for PCE inflation over the next 10 years from theSurvey of Professional Forecasters (SPF); for 1990 to 2006, the equivalent SPF projection for the CPI; for 1981 to 1989, a related survey for the CPI conducted by Richard Hoey; and for the

period preceding 1981, a model-based estimate constructed by Board staff. The survey data before 2007 are adjusted down 0.5 percentage point to put the CPI projections approximately on aPCE basis.

Figure: Inflation Compensation from TIPS

Line chart, by percent, 2001 to 2009:Q2. Data are quarterly. There are two series, "5 to 10 years ahead" and "Next 5 years". 5 to 10 years ahead begins at about2.2 and generally increases to about 3.1 by late 2003. It then generally decreases to about 2.5 by 2005, and generally increases to about 3 by early 2008. It thengenerally decreases to about 2.5 by early 2009, and generally increases to end at about 2.8. Next 5 years begins at about 1.6 and generally increases to about 2by 2001. It then generally decreases to about 1.2 by late 2001, and generally increases to about 2.7 by early 2005. It then generally decreases to about -0.6 bylate 2008, and generally increases to end at about 0.8.

There is a second line chart, by percent, 2005 to September 15, 2009. Data are weekly. There are two series, "5 to 10 years ahead" and "Next 5 years". 5 to 10years ahead begins at about 2.7 and generally increases to about 3.5 by 2008. It then generally decreases to about 2 by late 2008, and generally increases to endat about 3. Next 5 years begins at about 2.7 and generally increases to about 2.9 by 2005. It then generally decreases to about 1.9 by early 2008, and generallyincreases to about 2.5 by mid-2008. It then generally decreases to about -1.6 by late 2008, and generally increases to end at about 1.25.

Note: Based on a comparison of an estimated TIPS (Treasury inflation-protected securities) yield curve with an estimated nominal off-the-run Treasury yield curve, with an adjustment for theindexation-lag effect.

Source: FRB staff calculations.

Commodity Price Indexes

Figure: Journal of Commerce

Line chart, 1991 to September 15, 2009. Ratio scale, 2006 = 100. There are two series, "Industrials" and "Metals". Industrials begins at about 55 and generallydecreases to about 50 by early 1992. It then generally increases to about 70 by early 1995, and generally decreases to about 48 by late 2001. It then generallyincreases to about 139 by 2008, and generally decreases to about 62 by late 2008. It then generally increases to end at about 95. Metals begins at about 48 andgenerally decreases to about 40 by 1993. It then generally increases to about 56 by early 1995, and generally decreases to about 34 by late 2001. It then generallyincreases to about 160 by 2008, and generally decreases to about 61 by late 2008. It then generally increases to end at about 102.

Note: The Journal of Commerce (JOC) industrial price index is based almost entirely on industrial commodities, with a small weight given to energy commodities. Copyright for JOC data is held byCIBCR, 1994.

Figure: Commodity Research Bureau

Line chart, 1991 to September 15, 2009. Ratio scale, 1967 = 100. There are two series, "Spot industrials" and "Futures". Spot industrials begins at about 300 andgenerally decreases to about 250 by 1993. It then generally increases to about 355 by 1995, and generally decreases to about 220 by late 2001. It then generallyincreases to about 560 by 2008, and generally decreases to about 320 by late 2008. It then generally increases to end at about 455. Futures begins at about 225and generally decreases to about 210 by 1992. It then generally increases to about 260 by 1996, and generally decreases to about 190 by early 1999. It thengenerally increases to about 615 by 2008, and generally decreases to about 340 by late 2008. It then generally increases to end at about 440.

Note: The Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) spot industrials index consists entirely of industrial commodities, excluding energy. The CRB futures index gives about a 60 percent weight to foodcommodities and splits the remaining weight roughly equally among energy commodities, industrial commodities, and precious metals.

Selected Commodity Price Indexes(Percent change)

Index 2008 112/30/08

to 8/4/09 2

8/4/09 2 to

9/15/09

52-week change to

9/15/09

JOC industrials -41.4 40.6 2.0 -18.1

JOC metals -48.2 64.3 1.2 -12.3

CRB spot industrials -34.3 34.2 -.8 -2.6

CRB spot foodstuffs -14.1 5.9 .2 -17.7

CRB futures -24.7 21.4 .4 -5.0

1. From the last week of the preceding year to the last week of the year indicated. Return to table

2. August 4, 2009, is the Tuesday preceding publication of the August Greenbook. Return to table

Hourly Compensation and Unit Labor Costs

(Percent change from preceding period at compound annual rate; based on seasonally adjusted data)

Category2007:Q2

to 2008:Q2

2008:Q2 to

2009:Q2e

2008 2009

Q3 Q4 Q1e Q2e

Compensation per hour

Nonfarm business 2.7 .7 4.5 2.9 -4.7 .4

Output per hour

Nonfarm business 2.6 1.9 -.1 .8 .3 6.6

Unit labor costs

Nonfarm business .1 -1.1 4.6 2.0 -5.0 -5.8

e Staff estimate. Return to table

Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure: Compensation per Hour

Line chart, by percent change from year-earlier period, 1996 to 2009:Q2. There are two series, "Productivity and costs" and "ECI". Productivity and costs begins atabout 3 and generally increases to about 3.6 by 1996. It then generally decreases to about 2.6 by 1997, and generally increases to about 8.5 by 2000. It thengenerally decreases to about 2.7 by early 2002, and generally increases to about 5.7 by late 2003. It then generally decreases to end at about 0.8. ECI begins atabout 2.8 and generally increases to about 4.8 by 2000. It then generally decreases to end at about 1.5.

Note: Productivity and costs plotted value for 2009:Q2 is a staff estimate.


Figure: Unit Labor Costs

Line chart, by percent change from year-earlier period, 1996 to 2009:Q2. The series begins at about 1 and generally decreases to about 0.5 by 1996. It thengenerally increases to about 4.9 by early 2000, and generally decreases to about -3.5 by early 2002. It then generally increases to about 3.7 by early 2007, andgenerally decreases to end at about -1.

Note: Plotted value for 2009:Q2 is a staff estimate.


Figure: Average Hourly Earnings

Line chart, by percent change from year-earlier period, 1996 to August 2009. The series begins at about 3.25 and generally decreases to about 2.95 by 1996. Itthen generally increases to about 4.4 by 1998, and generally decreases to about 1.5 by early 2004. It then generally increases to about 4.3 by late 2006, andgenerally decreases to end at about 2.6.


Figure: Markup, Nonfarm Business

Line chart showing nonfarm business markup, by ratio, 1996 to 2009:Q2. The series begins at about 1.62 and generally increases to about 1.63 by 1997. It thengenerally decreases to about 1.53 by early 2001, and generally increases to end at about 1.715. The average for 1968-present is plotted as a horizontal line atabout 1.575.

Note: The markup is the ratio of output price to unit labor costs. Plotted value for 2009:Q2 is a staff estimate.

Source: For output price, U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; for unit labor costs, U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.



Accessible Material


Domestic Financial Developments

Selected Financial Market Quotations

(One-day quotes in percent except as noted)

Instrument2008 2009 Change to Sept. 15 from selected dates (percentage points)

Sept. 12 June 22 Aug. 11 Sept. 15 2008 Sept. 12 2009 June 22 2009 Aug. 11

Short-term

FOMC intended federal funds rate 2.00 .13 .13 .13 -1.87 .00 .00

Treasury bills1

3-month 1.46 .20 .18 .13 -1.33 -.07 -.05

6-month 1.80 .34 .28 .21 -1.59 -.13 -.07

Commercial paper (A1/P1 rates)2

1-month 2.39 .30 .22 .19 -2.20 -.11 -.03

3-month 2.75 .63 .29 .25 -2.50 -.38 -.04

Large negotiable CDs1

3-month 2.79 .40 .32 .25 -2.54 -.15 -.07

6-month 3.09 .68 .46 .36 -2.73 -.32 -.10

Eurodollar deposits3

1-month 2.60 .65 .50 .35 -2.25 -.30 -.15

3-month 3.00 1.05 .80 .50 -2.50 -.55 -.30

Bank prime rate 5.00 3.25 3.25 3.25 -1.75 .00 .00

Intermediate- and long-term

U.S. Treasury4

2-year 2.24 1.17 1.20 .96 -1.28 -.21 -.24

5-year 2.97 2.71 2.70 2.42 -.55 -.29 -.28

10-year 3.93 4.04 3.97 3.74 -.19 -.30 -.23

U.S. Treasury indexed notes5

5-year 1.33 1.45 1.54 .99 -.34 -.46 -.55

10-year 1.77 2.10 1.89 1.63 -.14 -.47 -.26

Municipal general obligations (Bond Buyer)6 4.54 4.86 4.65 4.33 -.21 -.53 -.32

Private instruments

10-year swap 4.26 3.97 3.98 3.67 -.59 -.30 -.31

10-year FNMA7 4.36 4.40 4.35 4.15 -.21 -.25 -.20

10-year AA8 6.62 5.94 5.41 5.13 -1.49 -.81 -.28

10-year BBB8 7.22 7.58 6.72 6.44 -.78 -1.14 -.28

10-year high yield8 10.66 12.13 10.61 10.17 -.49 -1.96 -.44

Home mortgages (FHLMC survey rate)

30-year fixed 5.78 5.42 5.29 5.07 -.71 -.35 -.22

1-year adjustable 5.03 4.93 4.72 4.64 -.39 -.29 -.08

Stock exchange indexRecord high 2009 Change to Sept. 15 from selected dates (percent)

Level Date June 22 Aug. 11 Sept. 15 Record high 2009 June 22 2009 Aug. 11

Dow Jones Industrial 14,165 10-9-07 8,339 9,241 9,683 -31.64 16.12 4.78

S&P 500 Composite 1,565 10-9-07 893 994 1,053 -32.75 17.87 5.86

Nasdaq 5,049 3-10-00 1,766 1,970 2,103 -58.35 19.05 6.75

Russell 2000 856 7-13-07 493 562 605 -29.32 22.73 7.60

D.J. Total Stock Index 15,807 10-9-07 9,130 10,243 10,870 -31.23 19.06 6.11

1. Secondary market. Return to table

2. Financial commercial paper. Return to table

3. Bid rates for Eurodollar deposits collected around 9:30 a.m. eastern time. Return to table

4. Derived from a smoothed Treasury yield curve estimated using off-the-run securities. Return to table

5. Derived from a smoothed Treasury yield curve estimated using all outstanding securities and adjusted for the carry effect. Return to table

6. Most recent Thursday quote. Return to table

7. Constant-maturity yields estimated from Fannie Mae domestic noncallable coupon securities. Return to table

8. Derived from smoothed corporate yield curves estimated using Merrill Lynch bond data. Return to table

NOTES:September 12, 2008, is the last business day before Lehman Brothers Holdings filed for bankruptcy.June 22, 2009, is the day before the June 2009 FOMC monetary policy announcement.August 11, 2009, is the day before the most recent FOMC monetary policy announcement.

Policy Expectations and Treasury Yields

Figure: Interest Rates

Line chart, by percent, August 4, 2009 to September 16, 2009. There are two series, "10-year Treasury yield" and "March 2010 Eurodollar". These two series usetwo different scales. 10-year Treasury yield begins at about 3.62 and generally increases to about 3.9 by August 7. It then generally decreases to about 3.3 bySeptember 11, and generally increases to end at about 3.48. March 2010 Eurodollar begins at about 1.04 and generally increases to about 1.25 by August 7. Itthen generally decreases to end at about 0.65. The FOMC statement is marked in the time series at about late August 12. Retail sales is marked in the time seriesat about early August 13. CPI is marked in the time series at about early August 14. Existing home sales is marked in the time series at about August 21.Advance durable goods is marked in the time series by early August 26. ISM manufacturing, Pending home sales is marked in the time series at about September1. Nonfarm payroll is marked in the time series at about early September 4. Retail sales is marked in the time series at about early September 15.

Note: 5-minute intervals. 8:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. No adjustments for term premiums.

Source: Bloomberg.

Figure: Implied Federal Funds Rate

Line chart, by percent, September 2009 to October 2011. There are two series, "August 11, 2009" and "September 15, 2009" August 11, 2009 begins at about 0.2and generally increases to end at about 2.8. September 15, 2009 begins at about 0.2 and generally increases to end at about 2.4.

Note: Estimated from federal funds and Eurodollar futures, with an allowance for term premiums and other adjustments.

Source: CME Group.

Figure: Treasury Yield Curve

Line chart, by percent, 1 to 20 years ahead. There are two series, "August 11, 2009" and "September 15, 2009". August 11, 2009 begins at about 0.2 andgenerally increases to end at about 4.5. September 15, 2009 begins at about 0.2 and generally increases to end at about 4.25.

Note: Smoothed yield curve estimated from off-the-run Treasury coupon securities. Yields shown are those on notional par Treasury securities with semiannual coupons.


Figure: 10-Year Treasury Implied Volatility

Line chart, by percent, January 2007 to September 15, 2009. Data are daily. The August 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. The series begins atabout 4.6 and generally decreases to about 3.5 by May 2007. It then generally increases to about 13.5 by September 2008, and generally decreases to about 6.8by March 2009. It then generally increases to about 11.6 by late April 2009, and generally decreases to end at about 8. It is at about 9.8 at the time of the August2009 FOMC meeting.

Note: 10-year Treasury note implied volatility derived from options on futures contracts.

Source: Bloomberg.

Figure: Inflation Compensation

Line chart, by percent, January 2007 to September 15, 2009. Data are daily. The August 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There are two series,"5 to 10 years ahead" and "Next 5 years". 5 to 10 years ahead begins at about 2.5 and generally increases to about 3.6 by late September 2008. It then generallydecreases to about 2 by October 2008, and generally increases to end at about 3. It is at about 3.3 at the time of the August 2009 FOMC meeting. Next 5 yearsbegins at about 2.3 and generally decreases to about 1.9 by February 2008. It then generally increases to about 2.6 by early June 2008, and generally decreasesto about -1.6 by late October. It then generally increases to end at about 1.5. It is at about 1.1 at the time of the August 2009 FOMC meeting.

Note: Estimates based on smoothed nominal and inflation-indexed Treasury yields. Next 5 years is adjusted for lagged indexation of Treasury inflation-protected securities.


Financial Institutions, Short-Term Funding Markets, and Liquidity Facilities

Figure: Bank ETFs

Line chart, January 2008 to September 15, 2009. January 2, 2009 = 100. Data are daily. The August 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There aretwo series, "Large banks" and "Regional and smaller banks". Large banks begins at about 190 and generally decreases to about 170 by January. It then generallyincreases to about 212 by early February, and generally decreases to about 108 by July. It then generally increases to about 175 by September, and generallydecreases to about 40 by early March 2009. It then generally increases to end at about 100. It is at about 100 at the time of the August 2009 FOMC meeting.Regional and smaller banks begins at about 120 and generally decreases to about 80 by July 2008. It then generally increases to about 140 by September, andgenerally decreases to about 48 by early March. It then generally increases to end at about 77. It is at about 80 at the time of the August 2009 FOMC meeting.

Note: Large bank ETF consists of 24 banks; regional and smaller bank ETF consists of 51 banks.

Source: Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) and Bloomberg.

Figure: Senior CDS Spreads for Banking Organizations

Line chart, January 2008 to September 15, 2009. Unit is basis points. Data are daily. The August 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There are twoseries, "Large bank holding companies" and "Other banks". Large bank holding companies begins at about 50 and generally increases to about 212 by March2008. It then generally decreases to about 65 by May, and generally increases to about 368 by early March 2009. It then generally decreases to end at about 120.It is at about 148 at the time of the August 2009 FOMC meeting. Other banks begins at about 55 and generally increases to about 245 by late September. It thengenerally decreases to end at about 125. It is at about 140 at the time of the August 2009 FOMC meeting.

Note: Median spreads for 6 large bank holding companies and 11 other banks.

Source: Markit.

Figure: Libor over OIS Spread

Line chart, July 2007 to September 2009. Unit is basis points. Data are daily. The August 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There are threeseries, "1-month", "3-month", and "6-month". 1-month begins at about 10 and generally increases to about 105 by early December. It then generally decreases toabout 15 by January 2008, and generally increases to about 335 by October. It then generally decreases to end at about 10. It is at about 10 at the time of theAugust 2009 FOMC meeting. 3-month begins at about 10 and generally increases to about 100 by early December. It then generally decreases to about 35 byJanuary 2008, and generally increases to about 360 by early November 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 15. It is at about 30 at the time of theAugust 2009 FOMC meeting. 6-month begins at about 15 and generally increases to about 100 by early December. It then generally decreases to about 45 byearly January 2008, and generally increases to about 330 by early October. It then generally decreases to end at about 50.

Source: British Bankers' Association and Prebon.

Figure: Spreads on 30-day Commercial Paper

Line chart, July 2007 to September 14, 2009. Unit is basis points. Data are daily. The August 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There are twoseries, "ABCP" and "A2/P2". They begin at about 0 and generally increase to about 190 by early December 2007. They then generally decrease to about 40 byearly February, and generally increase together until they reach about 400 by early October 2008. ABCP generally decreases to end at about 20. It is at about 25at the time of the August 2009 FOMC meeting. A2/P2 generally increases to about 600 by late December, and generally decreases to end at about 25. It is atabout 45 at the time of the August 2009 FOMC meeting.

Note: The ABCP spread is the AA ABCP rate minus the AA nonfinancial rate. The A2/P2 spread is the A2/P2 nonfinancial rate minus the AA nonfinancial rate.

Source: Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation.

Figure: Federal Reserve Credit Outstanding

Line chart, by billions of dollars, November 2007 to September 15, 2009. Data are daily. The August 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There are

three series, "Primary credit", "TAF", and "CPFF". Primary credit begins at about 0 and generally increases to about 115 by October. It then generally decreases toend at about 35. It is at about 35 at the time of the August 2009 FOMC meeting. TAF begins at about 0 and generally increases to about 500 by March 2009. Itthen generally decreases to end at about 200. It is at about 230 at the time of the August 2009 FOMC meeting. CPFF begins at about 0 by late October 2008. Itthen generally increases to about 350 by January, and generally decreases to end at about 48. It is at about 50 at the time of the August 2009 FOMC meeting.


Figure: Federal Reserve Large-Scale Asset Purchases

Line chart, by billions of dollars, December 2008 to September 11, 2009. Data are weekly. The August 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There arethree series, "Agency MBS", "Agency debt", and "Treasury securities". Agency debt begins at about 0 and generally increases to end at about 835. It is at about740 at the time of the August 2009 FOMC meeting. Agency debt begins at about 0 and generally increases to end at about 120. It is at about 100 at the time ofthe August 2009 FOMC meeting. Treasury securities begins at about 0 and remains about constant until late March 2009. It then generally increases to end atabout 300. It is at about 250 at the time of the August 2009 FOMC meeting.

Note: Due to settlement lags and other factors, cumulative purchases may be substantially higher than current holdings in the SOMA portfolio.


Corporate Yields, Risk Spreads, and Stock Prices

Figure: Selected Stock Price Indexes

Line chart, June 2008 to September 15, 2009. August 11, 2009 = 100. Data are daily. The August 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There aretwo series, "S&P Financial" and "S&P 500". S&P Financial begins at about 177 and generally decreases to about 50 by March 2009. It then generally decreases toend at about 108. It is at about 100 at the time of the August 2009 FOMC meeting. S&P 500 begins at about 140 and generally decreases to about 68 by earlyMarch. It then generally increases to end at about 105. It is at about 101 at the time of the August 2009 FOMC meeting.

Source: Standard & Poor's.

Figure: Expected Real Equity Return and Long-Run Treasury Yield

Line chart, by percent, 1990 to September 15, 2009. Data are monthly. There are two series, "Expected 10-year real equity return" and "Expected real yield on 10-year Treasury" (off-the-run 10-year Treasury yield less Philadelphia Fed 10-year expected inflation). Expected 10-year real equity return begins at about 7.7 andgenerally increases to about 9.5 by late 1990. It then generally decreases to about 2.1 by early 2000, and generally increases to about 12 by late 2008. It thengenerally decreases to end at about 8.7. Expected real yield on 10-year Treasury begins at about 4.3 and generally decreases to about 2 by 1993. It then generallyincreases to about 4.8 by late 1994, and generally decreases to about 1.1 by 2003. It then generally increases to about 2.8 by 2007, and generally decreases toend at about 1.4.

Note: There are two marks on the chart, at about 8.5 for Expected 10-year real equity return and about 1.4 for Expected real yield on 10-year Treasury, that denote the latest observation usingdaily interest rates and stock prices and latest earnings data from I/B/E/S.

Source: Thomson Financial.

Figure: Implied Volatility on S&P 500 (VIX)

Line chart, by percent, 2002 to September 15, 2009. Data are weekly, as measured on Fridays or the most recent business day. The August 2009 FOMC meetingis marked in the time series. The series begins at about 21 and generally increases to about 31 by mid-2002. It then generally decreases to about 10 by late 2006,and generally increases to about 80 by late 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 25. It is at about 25 at the time of the August 2009 FOMC meeting.

Source: Chicago Board of Exchange.

Figure: Corporate Bond Yields

Line chart, by percent, 2002 to September 15, 2009. Data are daily. The August 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There are two series, "10-yearhigh-yield" and "10-year BBB". 10-year high-yield begins at about 11 and generally increases to about 12.3 by 2002. It then generally decreases to about 7 byearly 2005, and generally increases to about 19.8 by late 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 10.2. It is at about 11 at the time of the August 2009FOMC meeting. 10-year BBB begins at about 7 and generally increases to about 8 by 2002. It then generally decreases to about 5 by mid-2003, and generallyincreases to about 10 by late 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 6.4. It is at about 7 at the time of the August 2009 FOMC meeting.

Note: Yields from smoothed yield curves based on Merrill Lynch bond data.

Figure: Corporate Bond Spreads

Line chart, 2002 to September 15, 2009. Unit is basis points. Data are daily. The August 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There are two series,"10-year high-yield" and "10-year BBB". 10-year high-yield begins at about 550 and generally increases to about 900 by 2002. It then generally decreases to about285 by early 2005, and generally increases 1650 by early 2009. It then generally decreases to end at about 680. It is at about 725 at the time of the August 2009FOMC meeting. 10-year BBB begins at about 225 and generally increases to about 300 by late 2002. It then generally decreases to about 100 by early 2005, and

generally increases to about 650 by late 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 295. It is at about 300 at the time of the August 2009 FOMC meeting.

Note: Corporate yields from smoothed yield curves based on Merrill Lynch bond data and spreads measured relative to comparable-maturity Treasury securities.

Figure: Estimated Median Bid-Asked Spread for Corporate Bonds

Line chart, 2005 to September 15, 2009. Unit is basis points. Data are daily. The August 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There are two series,"High-yield" and "Investment-grade". High-yield begins at about 125 and generally increases to about 25 by late 2005. It then generally decreases to about 105 by2008, and generally increases to about 360 by early 2009. It then generally decreases to end at about 100. It is at about 135 at the time of the August 2009 FOMCmeeting. Investment-grade begins at about 80 and fluctuates narrowly throughout most of the period. It generally decreases to about 50 by late 2006, generallyincreases to about 150 by late 2008, and then generally decreases to end at about 90. It is about 100 at the time of the August 2009 FOMC meeting.

Source: Staff estimate using data from the National Assn. of Securities Dealers' Trade Reporting and Compliance Engine.

Corporate Earnings and Credit Quality

Figure: Domestic Corporate Profits before Tax

Line chart, by billions of dollars, 1988 to 2009:Q2. Data are quarterly. There are two series, "Nonfinancial" and "Financial". Nonfinancial begins at about 310 andgenerally increases to about 345 by late 1988. It then generally decreases to about 275 by early 1991, and generally increases to about 600 by 1997. It thengenerally decreases to about 290 by late 2001, and generally increases to about 1000 by 2006. It then generally decreases to about 520 by late 2008, andgenerally increases to end at about 810. Financial begins at about 20 and generally increases to about 450 by early 2006. It then generally decreases to about 140by late 2008, and generally increases to about 280.

Note: Profits before tax plus capital consumption adjustment.

Note: Shaded bars indicate periods of business recessions defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER): July 1990-March 1991, March 2001-November 2001, and December2007-June 2009.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Figure: Revisions to Expected S&P 500 Earnings

Line chart, by percent, 2002 to mid-September 2009. Data are monthly. There are two series, "All firms" and "Nonfinancial firms". They begin at about -1.5 andgenerally increase to about 0.8 by early 2002. They then generally decrease to about -3.6 by late 2002, and generally increase to about 2 by 2004. They thengenerally decrease to about -17.5 by early 2009, and generally increase to end at about 0.

Note: Index is a weighted average of the percent change in the consensus forecasts of current-year and following-year earnings per share for a fixed sample.


Figure: Financial Ratios for Nonfinancial Corporations

Line chart, by ratio, 1989 to 2009:Q2. There are two series, "Debt over total assets" and "Liquid assets over total assets". There two series use two different scales.Debt over total assets begins at about 0.335 by 1990, and generally decreases to about 0.28 by 1996. It then generally increases to about 0.31 by 1999, andgenerally decreases to about 0.242 by 2006. It then generally increases to end at about 0.295 by early 2009, and generally decreases to end at about 0.285. Liquidassets over total assets begins at about 0.052 and generally decreases to about 0.05 by early 1990. It then generally increases to about 0.104 by 2004, andgenerally decreases to about 0.089 by 2008. It then generally increases to end at about 0.10.

Note: Data are annual through 1999 and quarterly starting in 2000:Q1.

Source: Calculated using Compustat data.

Figure: Bond Ratings Changes of Nonfinancial Companies

Bar chart, by percent of outstandings, 1991 to 2009:Q3. Data are annual rate. There are two series, "Upgrades" and "Downgrades". Upgrades begins at about 12and generally decreases to about 8 by 1994. It then generally increases to about 20 by 1995, and generally decreases to about 3 by 2002. It then generallyincreases to about 10 by 2007, and generally decreases to about 2 by 2008:H2. It then generally increases to about 7 by 2009:H1, and generally decreases to endat about 2. Downgrades begins at about 28 and generally increases to about 37 by 1992. It then generally decreases to about 8 by 1995, and generally increasesto about 38 by 2002. It then generally decreases to about 10 by 2004, and generally increases to about 29 by 2009:H1. It then generally decreases to end at about8.

Note: 2009:Q3 is based on July and August.

Source: Calculated using data from Moody's Investors Service.

Figure: Selected Default and Delinquency Rates

Line chart, by percent of outstandings, 1990 to 2009. There are two series, "C&I loan delinquency rate" and "Bond default rate". C&I loan delinquency rate beginsat about 5 and generally increases to about 6.2 by 1991. It then generally decreases to about 1.6 by late 1997, and generally increases to about 3.9 by 2002. It

then generally decreases to about 1.1 by late 2006, and generally increases to end at about 3.7 by 2009:Q2. Bond default rate begins at about 1.6 and generallyincreases to about 3.3 by early 1991. It then generally decreases to about 0 by late 1993, and generally increases to about 3.8 by late 2002. It then generallydecreases to about 0 by early 2008, and generally increases to about 7.3 by early 2009. It then generally decreases to end at about 3.2 by August.

Note: Bond default rate is 6-month trailing defaults divided by beginning-of-period outstandings, at an annual rate.

Source: For default rate, Moody's Investors Service; for delinquency rate, Call Report.

Figure: Expected Nonfinancial Year-Ahead Defaults

Line chart, by percent of liabilities, 1994 to September 2009. Data are monthly. The series begins at about 0.5 and generally decreases to about 0.3 by 1997. Itthen generally increases to about 4.4 by 2002, and generally decreases to about 0.2 by 2007. It then generally increases to about 5 by 2009, and generallydecreases to end at about 2.

Note: Firm-level estimates of default weighted by firm liabilities as a percent of total liabilities, excluding defaulted firms.

Source: Calculated using firm-level data from Moody's KMV.

Business Finance

Gross Issuance of Securities by U.S. Corporations(Billions of dollars; monthly rates, not seasonally adjusted)

Type of security 2005 2006 20072008 2009

H1 H2 Q1 Q2 July Aug.

Nonfinancial corporations

Stocks1 4.6 4.7 5.5 3.5 4.0 2.7 8.0 2.2 5.6

Initial public offerings 1.7 1.8 1.6 .6 .1 .3 .2 .0 .3

Seasoned offerings 2.8 2.9 3.8 2.9 3.9 2.4 7.8 2.1 5.3

Bonds2 18.7 29.3 35.1 36.0 19.4 57.4 42.8 21.5 29.8

Investment grade 8.7 13.1 17.5 24.9 14.2 42.5 22.8 7.3 15.8

Speculative grade 5.2 6.2 7.5 3.1 .4 3.0 7.5 2.6 7.5

Other (sold abroad/unrated) 4.8 10.1 10.0 8.0 4.8 11.9 12.4 11.7 6.5

Memo

Net issuance of commercial paper3 -.2 2.4 -.4 -.5 3.7 -12.7 -12.2 -3.7 -1.1

Change in C&I loans at commercial banks3 10.1 11.2 21.2 20.7 5.2 -16.0 -18.7 -22.1 -36.4

Financial corporations

Stocks1 5.0 5.3 8.6 17.2 9.9 .9 30.8 3.1 4.9

Bonds2 170.4 180.6 151.7 66.2 24.6 38.9 50.2 34.5 29.8

Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

1. Excludes private placements and equity-for-equity swaps that occur in restructurings. Return to table

2. Data include regular and 144a private placements. Bond totals reflect gross proceeds rather than par value of original discount bonds. Bonds are categorized according to Moody's bond ratingsor to Standard & Poor's if unrated by Moody's. Return to table

3. End-of-period basis, seasonally adjusted. Return to table

Source: Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation; Thomson Financial; Federal Reserve Board.

Figure: Selected Components of Net Debt Financing

Bar chart, by billions of dollars, 2005 to August 2009. Data are monthly rate, nonfinancial firms. There are three series, "Commercial paper", "C&I loans", and"Bonds". Commercial paper and C&I loans are seasonally adjusted, period-end basis. There is also a "Total" series plotted as a curve which shows the sum of theother series. Approximate values are: 2005: Bonds 6, C&I loans 8, Total 14. 2006: Bonds 18, C&I loans 11, Commercial paper 3, Total 32. 2007: Bonds 28, C&Iloans 20, Total 48. 2008:H1: Bonds 22, C&I loans 21, Total 43. 2008:H2: Bonds 11, C&I loans 7, Commercial paper 2, Total 20. 2009:Q1: Bonds 49, C&I loans -16, Commercial paper -12, Total 21. 2009:Q2: Bonds 32, C&I loans -19, Commercial paper -11, Total 2. July 2009: Bonds 17, C&I loans -22, Commercial paper -4, Total -9. August 2009: Bonds 19, C&I loans -36, Commercial paper -1.5, Total -18.5.

Source: Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation; Thomson Financial; Federal Reserve Board.

Figure: Components of Net Equity Issuance

Bar chart, by billions of dollars, 2005 to 2009:Q2. Data are monthly rate, nonfinancial firms. There are four series, "Public issuance", "Private issuance","Repurchases", and "Cash mergers". There is also a "Total" series plotted as a curve which shows the sum of the other series. Approximate values are: 2005:Private issuance 10, Public issuance 4, Repurchases -28, Cash mergers -14, Total -28. 2006: Private issuance 12, Public issuance 7, Repurchases -37, Cashmergers -23, Total -41. 2007: Private issuance 19, Public issuance 9, Repurchases -45, Cash mergers -38, Total -55. 2008:H1: Private issuance 20, Publicissuance 8, Repurchases -32, Cash mergers -16, Total -20. 2008:H2: Private issuance 22, Public issuance 7, Repurchases -26, Cash mergers -16, Total -13.2009:Q1: Private issuance 17, Public issuance 3, Repurchases -10, Cash mergers -7, Total 3. 2009:Q2: Private issuance 14, Public issuance 10, Repurchases -10, Cash mergers -8, Total 6.

Note: 2009:Q2 is an estimate. Private issuance was revised back to 2005.

Source: Thomson Financial, Investment Benchmark Report; Money Tree Report by PricewaterhouseCoopers, National Venture Capital Association, and Venture Economics.

Commercial Real Estate

Figure: Commercial Mortgage Debt

Line chart, by percent change, annual rate, 2000 to 2009:Q2. Data are quarterly. The series begins at about 12 and generally decreases to about 7 by early 2002.It then generally increases to about 16.5 by late 2005, and generally decreases to about 9 by early 2007. It then generally increases to about 15 by 2007, andgenerally decreases to end at about -1.5.

Note: 2009:Q2 is an estimate.


Figure: Commercial Real Estate Sales

Line chart, 2001 to August 2009. There are two series, "Dollar value of all sales", which is by billions of dollars, and "% of properties sold at nominal loss", which isby percent. These two series use two different scales. Dollar value of all sales begins at about 8 and generally increases to about 72 by early 2007. It thengenerally decreases to end at about 9. % of properties sold at nominal loss begins at about 5 and generally increases to about 17 by late 2001. It then generallydecreases to about 6 by 2002, and generally increases to about 16 by 2007. It then generally decreases to about 9 by 2008, and generally increases to end atabout 47.

Note: Three-month moving averages shown.

Source: Real Capital Analytics.

Figure: Prices of Commercial Real Estate

Line chart, 1994 to 2009. Index, 2001:Q1=100. There are two series, "NCREIF TBI", which data are quarterly, and "Moody's index", which data are monthly.NCREIF TBI begins at about 75 and generally increases to about 208 by 2007. It then generally decreases to end at about 137.5 by 2009:Q2. Moody's indexbegins at about 100 by 2001, and generally increases to about 188 by 2007. It then generally decreases to end at about 125 by June.

Source: NCREIF; MIT Center for Real Estate; Moody's.

Figure: Delinquency Rates on Commercial Mortgages on Existing Properties

Line chart, by percent, 1996 to 2009. There are three series, "At commercial banks", "At life insurance companies" and "CMBS". At commercial banks begins atabout 3.4 and generally decreases to about 1 by 2006. It then generally increases to end at about 4.1. At life insurance companies begins at about 2.4 andgenerally increases to about 2.6 by 1996. It then generally decreases to about 0 by late 2005, remains about constant until 2008, and generally increases to end atabout 0.2. CMBS begins at about 0.5 by late 1998, and generally increases to about 1.9 by late 2003. It then generally decreases to about 0.4 by 2007, andgenerally increases to end at about 4.2.

Note: CMBS are commercial mortgage-backed securities. "At commercial banks" is excluding farmland.

Source: Citigroup; Call Reports; ACLI.

Figure: Delinquency Rates on Construction Loans at Banks

Line chart, by percent, 2007:Q1 to 2009:Q2. Data are quarterly. There are two series, "Residential construction" and "Commercial construction". Residentialconstruction begins at about 2.8 and generally increases to end at about 23.8. Commercial construction begins at about 2 and generally increases to end at about14.

Note: Data series begin in 2007:Q1.

Source: Call Reports.

Figure: Commercial Mortgage CDS Index Prices (CMBX)

Line chart, by percent, April 2007 to September 10, 2009. Data are daily, by rating. The August 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There are three

series, "Senior AAA", "Junior AAA", and "BBB-". Senior AAA begins at about 100 and generally decreases to about 84 by March 2008. It then generally increasesto about 95 by early May, and generally decreases to about 56 by late November. It then generally increases to about 85 by early August, and generally decreasesto end at about 80. It is at about 80 at the time of the August 2009 FOMC meeting. Junior AAA begins at about 99 by early January 2008, and generally decreasesto about 66 by March. It then generally increases to about 90 by late April, and generally decreases to about 25 by April 2009. It then generally increases to end atabout 48. It is at about 47 at the time of the August 2009 FOMC meeting. BBB- begins at about 100 and generally decreases to about 30 by March 2008. It thengenerally increases to about 49 by May, and generally decreases to about 8 by April 2009. It then generally increases to end at about 15. It is at about 16 at thetime of the August 2009 FOMC meeting.

Note: Each index corresponds to pools of mortgages securitized in 2006:H1.

Source: JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Residential Mortgages

Figure: Mortgage Rate and MBS Yield

Line chart, by percent, October 2006 to September 2009. Data are weekly. The August 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There are two series,"30-year conforming fixed-rate mortgage rate" and "MBS yield". 30-year conforming fixed-rate mortgage rate begins at about 6.3 and generally decreases to about6.1 by late November. It then generally increases to about 6.75 by early June, and generally decreases to about 5.5 by late January 2008. It then generallyincreases to about 6.6 by late July, and generally decreases to about 4.8 by late March. It then generally increases to about 5.58 by June, and generally decreasesto end at about 5.05 by September 9. It is at about 5.25 at the time of the August 2009 FOMC meeting. MBS yield begins at about 5.8 and generally increases toabout 6.0 by early October. It then generally decreases to about 5.5 by late November, and generally increases to about 6.45 by early June. It then generallydecreases to about 3.7 by January, and generally increases to about 5.02 by June. It then generally decreases to end at about 4.4 by September 15. It is at about4.6 at the time of the August 2009 FOMC meeting.

Note: For MBS yield, Fannie Mae 30-year current coupon rate.

Source: For mortgage rate, Freddie Mac; for MBS yield, Bloomberg.

Figure: Spread of Mortgage Rate to Treasury Yield

Line chart, October 2006 to September 9, 2009. Unit is basis points. Data are weekly. The August 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There aretwo series, "30-yr FRM to 10-yr Treasury" and "5/1 ARM to 2-yr Treasury". 30-yr FRM to 10-yr Treasury begins at about 165 and generally decreases to about 142by January 2007. It then generally increases to about 250 by August 2008, and generally decreases 88 by late May. It then generally increases to end at about130. It is at about 130 at the time of the August 2009 FOMC meeting. 5/1 ARM to 2-yr Treasury begins at about 140 and generally decreases to about 100 by lateJanuary 2007. It then generally increases to about 525 by early December, and generally decreases to end at about 355. It is at about 350 at the time of theAugust 2009 FOMC meeting.

Note: Spreads are relative to corresponding off-the-run Treasury yields.

Source: Bloomberg; Freddie Mac.

Figure: Agency and Non-Agency MBS Issuance

Bar chart, by billions of dollars, 2002 to July 2009. Data are monthly rate. There are three series, "Non-agency", "GSEs", and "Ginnie Mae". Approximate valuesare: 2002: Ginnie Mae 12.5, GSEs 110.5, Non-agency 27. 2003: Ginnie Mae 20, GSEs 158, Non-agency 42. 2004: Ginnie Mae 10, GSEs 70, Non-agency 70.2005: Ginnie Mae 8, GSEs 72, Non-agency 90. 2006: Ginnie Mae 5, GSEs 70, Non-agency 85. 2007: Ginnie Mae 6, GSEs 94, Non-agency 50. 2008:H1: GinnieMae 22, GSEs 98. 2008:H2: Ginnie Mae 26, GSEs 49. 2009:Q1: Ginnie Mae 30, GSEs 78. 2009:Q2: Ginnie Mae 40, GSEs 110. July 2009: Ginnie Mae 48, GSEs104.

Source: For non-agency issuance, Inside Mortgage Finance; for agency, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae.

Figure: Prices of Existing Homes

Line chart, by percent change from a year earlier, 2002 to 2009. Data are monthly. There are three series, "FHFA price index", "LoanPerformance price index", and"20-city S&P/Case-Shiller price index". FHFA price index begins at about 7 and generally increases to about 10 by 2005. It then generally decreases to about -9by late 2008, and generally increases to end at about -5 by June. LoanPerformance begins at about 8.8 and generally increases to about 17.5 by 2005. It thengenerally decreases to about -20.1 by early 2009, and generally increases to end at about -12 by July. 20-city S&P/Case-Shiller price index begins at about 7.5and generally increases to about 17 by 2004. It then generally decreases to about -19 by early 2009, and generally increases to end at about -15 by June.

Note: LoanPerformance plans to publish its price index in late September. Data are confidential until then.

Source: For FHFA, Federal Housing Finance Agency; for LoanPerformance, First American CoreLogic; for S&P/Case-Shiller, Standard & Poor's.

Figure: Delinquencies on Prime Mortgages

Line chart, by percent of loans, 2001 to July 2009. Data are monthly. There are two series, "Variable-rate" and "Fixed-rate". Variable-rate begins at about 2.5 andgenerally decreases to about 1 by mid-2005. It then generally increases to end at about 13.5. Fixed-rate begins at about 1.5 and generally increases to end atabout 4.2.

Note: Percent of loans 90 or more days past due or in foreclosure. Prime includes near-prime mortgages.

Source: McDash Analytics.

Figure: Delinquencies on Subprime and FHA-Backed Mortgages

Line chart, by percent of loans, 2001 to 2009. Data are monthly. There are two series, "FHA" and "Subprime". These two series use two different scales. FHAbegins at about 3.3 and generally increases to end at about 7.5 by July. Subprime begins at about 8 and generally increases to about 10 by early 2003. It thengenerally decreases to about 5.5 by 2005, and generally increases to end at about 30.5.

Note: Percent of loans 90 or more days past due in foreclosure. For subprime mortgages, rates are for securitized loans.

Source: For FHA-backed mortgages, McDash Analytics; for subprime mortgages, LoanPerformance, a division of First American CoreLogic.

Consumer Credit and Mutual Funds

Figure: Consumer Credit

Line chart, by percent change, annual rate, 2004 to July 2009. Data are 3-month change. There are two series, "Revolving" and "Nonrevolving". Revolving beginsat about 3 and generally increases to about 4.2 by 2004. It then generally decreases to about 1 by 2004, and generally increases to about 8 by 2004. It thengenerally decreases to about 2 by early 2005, and generally increases to about 9 by mid-2007. It then generally decreases to about -12.5 by 2009, and generallyincreases to end at about -8.8. Nonrevolving begins at about 6 and generally increases to about 7 by 2004. It then generally decreases to about 4 by 2004, andgenerally increases to about 8.5 by late 2004. It then generally decreases to end at about -6.2.


Figure: Gross Consumer ABS Issuance

Bar chart, by billions of dollars, 2005 to September 2009. Data are monthly rate. There are two series, "TALF eligible" and "Non-TALF". Approximate values are:2005: TALF eligible 0, Non-TALF 19. 2006: TALF eligible 0, Non-TALF 19. 2007: TALF eligible 0, Non-TALF 19.8. 2008:H1: TALF eligible 0, Non-TALF 18.2008:H2: TALF eligible 0, Non-TALF 4. 2009:Q1: TALF eligible 2.8, Non-TALF 1.2. 2009:Q2: TALF eligible 10, Non-TALF 4.5. July 2009: TALF eligible 12.5, Non-TALF 4. August 2009: TALF eligible 13, Non-TALF 3.5. September 2009: TALF eligible 14.8, Non-TALF 0.

Note: Credit card, auto, and student loan ABS. September 2009 is through September 11.

Source: Inside MBS & ABS, Merrill Lynch, Bloomberg, Federal Reserve.

Figure: Credit Card Rates and Volume of Mail Offerings

Line chart, 2007 to 2009. Data are monthly. The August 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There are two series, "Volume of mail offerings", whichis by millions, and "Interest rates", which is by percent. Volume of mail offerings begins at about 555 and generally increases to about 610 by 2007. It thengenerally decreases to about 485 by 2007, and generally increases to about 550 by late 2007. It then generally decreases to about 100 by early 2009, andgenerally increases to end at about 100 by July. There is no data for the August 2009 FOMC meeting. Interest rates begins at about 14.7 and generally decreasesto about 10.8 by 2009. It then generally increases to end at about 11.5 by September 9. It is at about 11.1 at the time of the August 2009 FOMC meeting.

Source: For interest rates, Bankrate Monitor; for mail volume, Mintel.

Figure: Delinquencies on Consumer Loans

Line chart, by percent, 1997 to 2009. There are three series, "Credit card loans in securitized pools", "Nonrevolving consumer loans at commercial banks", and"Auto loans at captive finance companies". Credit card loans in securitized pools begins at about 5.3 and generally increases to about 5.6 by 1997. It thengenerally decreases to about 4.6 by early 2000, and generally increases to about 5.5 by 2003. It then generally decreases to about 3.3 by late 2005, and generallyincreases to end at about 6 by July. Nonrevolving consumer loans at commercial banks begins at about 3.1 and generally increases to about 3.2 by early 1999. Itthen generally decreases to about 2 by late 2005, and generally increases to end at about 3.7 by 2009:Q2. Auto loans at captive finance companies begins atabout 3.3 and generally increases to about 3.7 by early 1997. It then generally decreases to about 1.9 by 2004, and generally increases to end at about 3.2 byJuly.

Source: For auto loans, Federal Reserve; for credit cards, Moody's Investors Service; for nonrevolving consumer loans, Call Report.

Net Flows into Mutual Funds(Billions of dollars, monthly rate)

Fund type2008 2009 Assets

H1 H2 Q1 Q2 July Aug.e July

Total long-term funds 11.8 -49.7 0.5 46.1 46.7 51.6 6,825

Equity funds -3.6 -36.0 -14.4 14.2 9.8 3.5 4,365

Domestic -5.0 -20.7 -7.8 9.7 2.8 -2.3 3,265

International 1.3 -15.3 -6.5 4.4 7.0 5.8 1,099

Hybrid funds 1.7 -4.8 -2.9 2.3 1.8 3.0 559

Bond funds 13.8 -8.9 17.8 29.7 35.1 45.1 1,901

High-yield -0.2 0.1 2.7 2.9 1.9 0.8 164

Other taxable 11.1 -7.4 11.2 21.1 25.9 34.9 1,335

Municipals 2.9 -1.6 3.9 5.7 7.3 9.4 402

Money market funds 56.1 59.6 0.1 -55.2 -49.9 -55.6 3,623

Note: Excludes reinvested dividends.

e Staff estimate. Return to table

Source: Investment Company Institute.

Treasury Finance

Figure: Treasury Auction Amounts

Line chart, by billions of dollars, 2005:Q1 to 2009:Q3. Data are quarterly. There are four series, "2-year", "3-year", "5-year", and "10-year". 2-year begins at about73 and generally decreases to about 52 by 207Q3. It then generally increases to about 120 by 2009:Q2, and generally decreases to end at about 86. 3-year beginsat about 24 and generally decreases to about 0 by late 2007:Q3. It then remains about constant until late 2008:Q3, and generally increases to end at about 112. 5-year begins at about 45 and generally decreases to about 38 by 2007:Q2. It then generally increases to end at about 109. 10-year begins at about 25 and remainsabout constant until 2008:Q1. It then generally increases to about 62 by late 2009:Q2, and generally decreases to about 40.

Note: 2009:Q3 is estimated using data through August.

Source: U.S. Treasury Dept.

Figure: Foreign Participation in Treasury Auctions

Line chart, by percent of total issue, 2000 to 2009. Data are 6-month moving averages. The August 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. There aretwo series, "Indirect bids" and "Actual foreign allotment". Indirect bids begins at about 27 by 2003, and generally increases to about 44 by 2004. It then generallydecreases to about 24 by 2008, and generally increases to end at about 40 by September 15, 2009. It is at about 40 at the time of the August 2009 FOMCmeeting. Actual foreign allotment begins at about 10 and generally increases to about 26 by 2004. It then generally decreases to about 15 by 2006, and generallyincreases to end at about 25 by July 31. There is no data for the August 2009 FOMC meeting.

Note: Indirect bids and actual allotment are a percentage of the total amount accepted, including the amount tendered to the Federal Reserve. Moving averages include 2-, 5-, and 10-yearoriginal auctions and reopenings.


Figure: Average Absolute Nominal Yield Curve Fitting Error

Line chart, 2001 to September 15, 2009. Unit is basis points. Data are daily. The series begins at about 3 and generally decreases to about 1.5 by 2007. It thengenerally increases to about 22.5 by late 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 3.5. It is at about 3 at the time of the August 2009 FOMC meeting. Thereare two peaks, one to about 13 by 2001, and the other to about 6 by mid-2003.

Note: Calculated from securities with 2 to 10 years until maturity, excluding on-the-run and first off-the-run securities.


Figure: Daily Treasury Market Volume

Line chart, by billions of dollars, 2004 to September 2009. Data are monthly averages. The August 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. The seriesbegins at about 75 and fluctuates but generally increases to about 200 by 2007. It then generally decreases to about 75 by early 2009, and generally increases toend at about 115. It is at about 100 at the time of the August 2009 FOMC meeting.

Note: September observation is the month-to-date average.

Source: Bloomberg.

Figure: Treasury On-the-Run Premium

Line chart showing 10-year note, 2001 to September 2009. Unit is basis points. Data are monthly averages. The August 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in thetime series. The series begins at about 15 and generally increases to about 27 by 2002. It then generally decreases to about 6 by late 2006, and generallyincreases to about 60 by early 2009. It then generally decreases to end at about 29. It is at about 34 at the time of the August 2009 FOMC meeting.

Note: Computed as the spread of the yield read from an estimated off-the-run yield curve over the on-the-run Treasury yield. September observation is the month-to-date average.


Figure: Treasury Fails-to-Deliver

Line chart, by billions of dollars, 2007:Q1 to September 2, 2009. Data are weekly. The August 2009 FOMC meeting is marked in the time series. The series beginsat about 250 and generally decreases to about 0 by 2007:Q1. It then generally increases to about 1200 by early 2008:Q2, and generally decreases to about 0 by2008:Q3. It then generally increases to about 2700 by 2008:Q4, and generally decreases to end at about 0. It is at about 0 at the time of the August 2009 FOMCmeeting.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, FR 2004, Government Securities Dealers Reports.

State and Local Government Finance

Gross Offerings of Municipal Securities(Billions of dollars; monthly rate, not seasonally adjusted)

Type of security 2005 2006 20072008 2009

H1 H2 Q1 Q2 July Aug.

Total 38.4 36.1 40.4 41.7 33.2 30.5 42.4 33.2 49.5

Long-term1 34.2 32.5 35.5 38.1 26.7 28.7 37.1 25.9 36.1

Refundings2 15.6 10.6 12.6 18.0 11.2 10.5 14.4 9.1 11.9

New capital 18.6 21.9 22.9 20.1 15.5 18.2 22.7 16.8 24.2

Short-term 4.2 3.7 4.9 3.6 6.5 1.8 5.3 7.3 13.4

Memo: Long-term taxable 2.1 2.5 2.4 2.8 1.8 1.1 7.9 4.9 10.4

1. Includes issues for public and private purposes. Return to table

2. All issues that include any refunding bonds. Return to table


Figure: Ratings Changes

Bar chart, by number of ratings changes, 1991 to 2009:Q2. Data are annual rate. There are two series, "Upgrades" and "Downgrades". Upgrades begins at about250 and generally increases to about 400 by 1992. It then generally decreases to about 300 by 1993, and generally increases to about 1100 by 2000. It thengenerally decreases to about 450 by 2002, and generally increases to about 2300 by 2006. It then generally decreases to about 1700 by 2008:H1, and generallyincreases to about 3000 by 2009:Q1. It then generally decreases to end at about 2450. Downgrades begins at about 600 and generally decreases to about 200 by1997. It then generally increases to about 1300 by 2007, and generally decreases to end at about 350.

Note: Recent upgrades reflect S&P's change of rating standard.

Source: S&P's Credit Week Municipal; S&P's Ratings Direct.

Figure: Municipal Bond Yields

Line chart, by percent, 2005 to 2009. Data are weekly. There are two series, "20-year general obligation" and "7-day SIFMA swap index". 20-year generalobligation begins at about 4.5 and generally decreases to about 4 by late 2006. It then generally increases to about 6 by 2008, and generally decreases to end atabout 4.4 by September 10. 7-day SIFMA swap index begins at about 1.5 and generally increases to about 4 by late 2006. It then generally decreases to about1.3 by early 2008, and generally increases to about 8 by 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 0.3 by September 2.

Note: SIFMA is the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association.

Source: Municipal Market Advisors; Bond Buyer.

Figure: Municipal Bond Yield Ratio

Line chart showing 20-year, by ratio (General Obligation over Treasury), 1994 to September 10, 2009. Data are weekly. The series begins at about 0.82 andgenerally increases to about 0.99 by 2003. It then generally decreases to about 0.85 by early 2007, and generally increases to about 1.87 by early 2009. It thengenerally decreases to end at about 1.05.

Source: Bond Buyer.

M2 Monetary Aggregate

(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Aggregate and components

Percent change (annual rate)1 Level (billions

of dollars), Aug. (p)

2007 20082009

Q1 Q2 July Aug. (p)

M2 5.9 8.3 12.9 2.6 -3.1 -7.3 8,298

Components2

Currency 2.0 5.8 16.0 6.9 0.6 6.7 858

Liquid deposits3 4.3 6.8 20.6 12.6 7.9 4.1 5,317

Small time deposits 4.4 11.7 0.2 -16.3 -26.0 -33.1 1,218

Retail money market funds 20.2 12.9 -7.6 -23.9 -36.0 -50.0 899

Memo:

Institutional money market funds 40.2 24.6 29.9 6.3 -7.0 -23.2 2,459

Monetary base 2.0 70.4 65.4 24.2 -10.3 28.2 1,705

1. For years, Q4 to Q4; for quarters and months, calculated from corresponding average levels. Return to table

2. Nonbank traveler's checks are not listed. Return to table

3. Sum of demand deposits, other checkable deposits, and savings deposits. Return to table

p Preliminary. Return to table


Commercial Bank Credit

(Percent change, annual rate, except as noted; seasonally adjusted)

Type of credit 2007 2008 H2 2008

Q1 2009

Q2 2009

July 2009

Aug. 2009

Level1 Aug. 2009

Total 9.9 5.1 4.5 -5.5 -3.5 -12.6 -10.8 9,258

Loans2

Total 10.7 4.6 2.1 -7.1 -6.6 -19.3 -17.0 6,886

Core 9.6 5.2 2.7 -3.0 -5.8 -8.7 -14.4 6,120

To businesses

Commercial and industrial 19.0 16.6 11.4 -13.4 -15.3 -12.1 -28.0 1,453

Commercial real estate 9.3 6.0 2.9 -.7 -1.7 -5.1 -7.8 1,690

To households

Residential real estate 5.6 -3.0 -5.2 -1.4 -1.5 -9.5 -12.2 2,131

Revolving home equity 5.7 13.0 13.0 10.0 2.8 -6.1 -5.3 606

Closed-end mortgages 5.6 -7.9 -11.2 -5.6 -3.2 -10.8 -15.1 1,524

Consumer 6.7 7.2 7.4 8.0 -7.0 -8.4 -9.4 847

Memo: Originated3 6.4 5.7 4.4 1.4 -4.3 -3.8 -11.4 1,248

Other 18.7 .5 -1.5 -34.2 -13.0 -95.6 -37.3 767

Securities

Total 7.0 6.9 12.9 -.2 6.4 7.7 7.4 2,372

Treasury and agency -6.1 18.6 32.4 5.9 -5.8 8.6 15.5 1,418

Other4 28.3 -7.0 -11.2 -9.6 25.6 6.4 -4.4 953

Note: Yearly annual rates are Q4 to Q4; quarterly and monthly annual rates use corresponding average levels. Data have been adjusted to remove the effects of mark-to-market accounting rules(FAS 115) and the initial consolidation of certain variable interest entities (FIN 46). Data also account for the effects of nonbank structure activity of $5 billion or more.

1. Billions of dollars. Pro rata averages of weekly (Wednesday) levels. Return to table

2. Excludes interbank loans. Return to table

3. Includes an estimate of outstanding loans securitized by commercial banks. Return to table

4. Includes private mortgage-backed securities; securities of corporations, state and local governments, and foreign governments; and any trading account securities that are not Treasury oragency securities. Return to table


Figure: Bank Credit, by Bank Size

Line chart, 2007 to August 2009. January 2007 = 100. Data are monthly, s.a. There are two series, "Large banks" and "Other banks". Large banks begins at about100 and generally increases to about 115.1 by late 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 102.5. Other banks begins at about 100.5 and generallyincreases to about 114.5 by mid-2009. It then generally decreases to end at about 113.

Note: Large is defined as the top 25 banks by asset size.


Figure: C&I Loan Rate Spreads--All Banks

Line chart showing weighted average adjusted, 1997 to 2009:Q3. Unit is basis points. Data are quarterly. A vertical line indicates the NBER Peak in December2007. The series begins at about 155 and generally increases to about 188 by late 2002. It then generally decreases to about 137 by late 2005, and generallyincreases to end at about 198. It is at about 144 at the time of the NBER peak.

Note: The spread over market interest rate on an instrument of comparable maturity. Weighted average adjusted for changes in nonprice loan characteristics. A shaded bar indicates a period ofbusiness recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER): March 2001-November 2001. The NBER peak is the last business cycle peak as defined by the NBER.

Source: Survey of Terms of Business Lending.

Figure: Return on Assets

Line chart, by percent, annual rate, 1985 to 2009:Q2. Data are quarterly, s.a. A vertical line indicates the NBER Peak in December 2007. The series begins atabout 0.75 and generally decreases to about -1.55 by 1987. It then generally increases to about 1.5 by 2006, and generally decreases to about -1.0 by late 2008. Itthen generally increases to end at about -0.1. It is at about 0.5 at the time of the NBER peak.

Note: Shaded bars indicate a period of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER): July 1990-March 1991, and March 2001-November 2001. TheNBER peak is the last business cycle peak as defined by the NBER.

Source: Call Report.



Accessible Material


International Developments

Trade in Goods and Services

2008


2008 2009 2009


Percent change

Nominal BOP

Exports -3.4 -38.0 -40.7 -4.6 1.4 2.1 2.2

Imports -7.3 -46.2 -55.4 -11.4 -.7 2.5 4.7

Real NIPA

Exports -3.4 -19.5 -29.9 -5.0 … … …

Imports -6.8 -16.7 -36.4 -15.1 … … …

Billions of dollars

Nominal BOP

Net exports -695.9 -578.0 -369.6 -332.0 -26.4 -27.5 -32.0

Goods, net -840.2 -715.3 -496.1 -461.9 -37.2 -38.3 -42.7

Services, net 144.3 137.3 126.5 129.9 10.8 10.8 10.7

n.a. Not available.


BOP Balance of payments. Return to table

NIPA National income and product accounts. Return to table

Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Census Bureau.

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services

(Quarterly)

Figure: Trade Balance

Line chart, by billions of dollars, annual rate, 1999 to July 2009. The series begins at about -220 and generally decreases to about -800 by 2006. It then generallyincreases to end at about -340. July 2009 is marked at about -340.

Figure: Contribution of Net Exports to Growth of Real Gross Domestic Product

Bar chart, by percentage points, annual rate, 1999 to 2009:Q2. The series begins at about -1.6 and generally increases to about -0.25 by 1999. It then generallydecreases to about -1.5 by early 2000, and generally increases to about 0.3 by 2001. It then generally decreases to about -1.7 by 2004, and generally increases toabout 2.65 by early 2009. It then generally decreases to end at about 1.6.

Figure: Selected Exports

Line chart, by billions of dollars, annual rate, 1999 to 2009. There are four series, "Capital goods ex. aircraft", "Industrial supplies", "Consumer goods", and"Aircraft". Capital goods begins at about 248 and generally increases to about 328 by 2000. It then generally decreases to about 230 by early 2002, and generallyincreases to about 395 by mid-2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 300. Industrial supplies begins at about 128 and generally increases to about 165by 2000. It then generally decreases to about 138 by early 2002, and generally increases to about 400 by 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 250.Consumer goods begins at about 78 and generally increases to about 170 by mid-2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 146. Aircraft begins at about

55 and generally decreases to about 45 by 2003. It then generally increases to end at about 75.

Figure: Selected Imports

Line chart, by billions of dollars, annual rate, 1999 to 2009. There are four series, "Capital goods", "Consumer goods", "Industrial supplies", and "Oil". Capital goodsbegins at about 278 and generally increases to about 365 by mid-2000. It then generally decreases to about 272 by late 2001, and generally increases to about470 by 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 349. Consumer goods begins at about 228 and generally increases to about 490 by 2008. It thengenerally decreases to end at about 420. Industrial supplies begins at about 140 and generally increases to about 188 by early 2001. It then generally decreases toabout 150 by late 2001, and generally increases to about 350 by 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 178. Oil begins at about 45 and generallyincreases to about 126 by mid-2000. It then generally decreases to about 80 by early 2002, and generally increases to about 525 by 2008. It then generallydecreases to about 210 by early 2009, and generally increases to end at about 228.


U.S. Exports and Imports of Goods and Services

(Billions of dollars; annual rate, balance of payments basis)

Levels Change1

2009 2009 2009 2009

Q1 Q2 June July Q1 Q2 June July

Exports of goods and services 1488.8 1471.3 1498.5 1531.1 -207.8 -17.5 30.6 32.6

Goods exports 997.5 984.5 1008.6 1040.5 -164.8 -13.0 23.7 31.9

Gold 13.8 12.3 12.0 12.7 .4 -1.5 -2.3 .8

Other goods 983.7 972.2 996.7 1027.8 -165.2 -11.4 26.0 31.1

Capital goods 393.8 373.1 377.1 386.1 -42.3 -20.7 5.3 9.0

Aircraft & parts 79.0 73.4 74.1 76.0 14.7 -5.6 1.9 1.8

Computers & accessories 36.9 35.5 35.2 39.1 -2.4 -1.4 -.9 4.0

Semiconductors 33.4 35.0 36.9 38.5 -10.6 1.6 2.7 1.6

Other capital goods 244.5 229.2 230.9 232.4 -44.0 -15.3 1.7 1.6

Automotive 70.2 66.7 65.5 81.6 -38.9 -3.4 .8 16.0

Ind. supplies (ex. ag., gold) 240.2 249.8 267.8 272.6 -59.3 9.6 15.9 4.8

Consumer goods 146.0 144.2 144.9 149.3 -10.1 -1.8 -.3 4.4

Agricultural 94.4 101.0 103.7 98.8 -8.6 6.6 3.0 -4.9

All other goods 39.1 37.4 37.8 39.4 -6.0 -1.7 17.8 1.7

Services exports 491.3 486.7 489.9 490.6 -43.0 -4.6 6.9 .7

Imports of goods and services 1858.4 1803.3 1828.4 1914.6 -416.2 -55.1 43.9 86.2

Goods imports 1493.6 1446.5 1468.6 1552.6 -383.9 -47.2 36.9 84.0

Oil 208.9 227.8 259.2 268.5 -132.9 18.9 50.7 9.4

Gold 7.3 8.4 11.4 10.1 .7 1.1 4.7 -1.3

Other goods 1277.5 1210.3 1198.0 1273.9 -251.7 -67.2 -18.5 75.9

Capital goods 366.3 345.6 346.3 361.9 -60.5 -20.7 -.7 15.6

Aircraft & parts 30.2 31.4 31.5 33.5 -2.0 1.2 1.2 2.0

Computers & accessories 80.6 84.4 89.1 95.0 -7.0 3.8 5.4 6.0

Semiconductors 19.0 20.4 20.8 21.5 -4.0 1.4 .1 .8

Other capital goods 236.5 209.4 205.0 211.8 -47.5 -27.1 -7.4 6.8

Automotive 129.4 126.8 132.9 161.5 -70.1 -2.6 11.0 28.5

Ind. supplies (ex. oil, gold) 212.9 178.7 172.8 182.1 -74.8 -34.2 -8.7 9.3

Consumer goods 423.6 419.1 404.8 425.1 -32.9 -4.4 -21.2 20.3

Foods, feeds, beverages 81.7 81.5 82.3 81.6 -7.1 -.2 .9 -.7

All other goods 63.7 58.6 58.9 61.7 -6.3 -5.1 .1 2.8

Services imports 364.8 356.8 359.8 362.0 -32.2 -8.0 7.0 2.2

Memo:

Oil quantity (mb/d) 13.78 11.62 11.66 11.63 .19 -2.16 .81 -.03

Oil import price ($/bbl) 41.61 53.70 60.85 63.22 -27.83 12.10 8.23 2.37

1. Change from previous quarter or month. Return to table


Prices of U.S. Imports and Exports

Figure: Merchandise Imports

Line chart, by 12-month percent change, 1999 to 2009. There are two series, "Core goods" and "Non-oil goods". Core goods begins at about -1.5 and generallyincreases to about 1.7 by 2000. It then generally decreases to about -3.6 by early 2002, and generally increases to about 8.9 by mid-2008. It then generallydecreases to end at about -6. Non-oil goods begins at about -2.8 and generally increases to about 2.2 by early 2001. It then generally decreases to about -5.2 byearly 2002, and generally increases to about 8 by mid-2008. It then generally decreases to end at about -6.7.

Figure: Categories of Core Imports

Line chart, by 12-month percent change, 1999 to 2009. There are two series, "Material-intensive goods" and "Finished goods". Material-intensive goods begins atabout -5 and generally increases to about 6.5 by early 2000. It then generally decreases to about -10.2 by early 2002, and generally increases to about 19.5 bymid-2008. It then generally decreases to end at about -16. Finished goods begins at about -0.5 and generally decreases to about -1.5 by 2002. It then generallyincreases to about 4 by 2008, and generally decreases to end at about -1.

Figure: Oil

Line chart, by dollars per barrel, 1999 to 2009. There are two series, "Spot West Texas Intermediate" and "Import unit value". Spot West Texas Intermediate beginsat about 11 and generally increases to about 35 by late 2000. It then generally decreases to about 20 by late 2001, and generally increases to about 135 by 2008.It then generally decreases to about 37 by early 2009, and generally decreases to end at about 71. Import unit value begins at about 9 and generally increases toabout 29 by mid-2000. It then generally decreases to about 15 by late 2001, and generally increases to about 126 by mid-2008. It then generally decreases toabout 37 by early 2009, and generally increases to end at about 71.

Figure: Natural Gas

Line chart, 1999 to 2009. There are two series, "Import price index", 2000 = 100, and "Spot Henry Hub", which is dollars per million Btu. These two series use twodifferent scales. Import price index begins at about 65 and generally decreases to about 50 by 1999. It then generally increases to about 220 by early 2001, andgenerally decreases to about 60 by early 2002. It then generally increases to about 275 by late 2005, and generally decreases to about 122 by late 2006. It thengenerally increases to about 280 by mid-2008, and generally decreases to end at about 90. Spot Henry Hub begins at about 2 and generally increases to about 9.5by late 2000. It then generally decreases to about 2.5 by 2001, and generally increases to about 14 by 2005. It then generally decreases to about 4.5 by 2006,generally increases to about 13 by mid-2008, and generally decreases to end at about 2.5.

Figure: Merchandise Exports

Line chart, by 12-month percent change, 1999 to 2009. There are two series, "Core goods" and "Total goods". Core goods begins at about -2 and generallyincreases to about 3 by early 2000. It then generally decreases to about -2.5 by early 2002, and generally increases to about 13.9 by mid-2008. It then generallydecreases to about -11 by mid-2009, and generally increases to end at about -7.2. Total goods begins at about -2.8 and generally increases to about 2 by early2000. It then generally decreases to about -3 by early 2002, and generally increases to about 10 by mid-2008. It then generally decreases to about -8 by mid-2009, and generally increases to end at about -6.

Figure: Categories of Core Exports

Line chart, by 12-month percent change, 1999 to 2009. There are two series, "Material-intensive goods" and "Finished goods". Material-intensive goods begins atabout -6.5 and generally increases to about 7.5 by early 2000. It then generally decreases to about -7 by 2001, and generally increases to about 24.8 by mid-2008.It then generally decreases to about -21.5 by mid-2009, and generally increases to end at about -16. Finished goods begins at about 0 and generally increases toabout 3.8 by 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 1.5.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Wall Street Journal; Commodity Research Bureau.

Prices of U.S. Imports and Exports

(Percentage change from previous period)


2009 2009

Q1 Q2 Q3e June July Aug.

BLS prices

Merchandise imports -24.3 14.9 11.4 2.7 -.7 2.0

Oil -72.6 247.1 89.1 17.2 -2.6 10.5

Non-oil -10.9 -3.2 .4 .2 -.3 .4

Core goods1 -11.3 -1.2 1.1 .2 -.2 .4

Finished goods -1.2 -.5 .1 .1 -.0 -.0

Cap. goods ex. comp. & semi. -.7 -1.4 .5 .0 .2 -.1

Automotive products -.5 .0 1.2 .1 .1 .2

Consumer goods -1.8 -.1 -.8 .1 -.2 -.2

Material-intensive goods -30.1 -2.9 3.4 .4 -.5 1.5

Foods, feeds, beverages -9.6 .8 .9 .4 -1.0 1.7

Industrial supplies ex. fuels -35.4 -4.2 3.9 .3 -.3 1.3

Computers -8.3 -4.2 1.0 -.6 .6 .0

Semiconductors -10.9 7.1 -6.9 .0 -2.0 .5

Natural gas -61.0 -74.7 -25.4 4.3 -9.0 1.5

Merchandise exports -8.8 2.4 3.4 1.0 -.3 .7

Core goods2 -11.1 2.5 3.8 1.3 -.5 .9

Finished goods 1.6 .3 1.7 .2 .2 .1

Cap. goods ex. comp. & semi. 3.1 2.5 1.8 .2 .3 .1

Automotive products .5 -.6 -.8 -.1 -.2 .1

Consumer goods -1.2 -4.0 3.6 .4 .4 .3

Material-intensive goods -24.4 5.2 6.3 2.6 -1.4 1.7

Agricultural products -12.3 19.5 -4.1 4.2 -4.9 .2

Industrial supples ex. ag. -28.4 1.2 10.1 2.0 -.1 2.3

Computers -9.1 -3.4 -2.3 -.3 -.7 .5

Semiconductors 7.4 12.3 4.9 -.3 1.2 .1

NIPA prices

Chain price index

Imports of goods & services -28.3 4.1 -- … … …

Non-oil merchandise -10.5 -4.0 -- … … …

Core goods1 -9.4 -2.4 -- … … …

Exports of goods & services -12.6 .5 -- … … …

Total merchandise -14.8 2.5 -- … … …

Core goods2 -12.5 2.6 -- … … …

1. Excludes computers, semiconductors, and natural gas. Return to table

2. Excludes computers and semiconductors. Return to table

e Estimate based on average of two months. Return to table

n.a. Not available.

… Not applicable.

BLS Bureau of Labor Statistics. Return to table

NIPA National income and product accounts.

Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Bureau of Labor Statistics.

U.S. International Financial Transactions

Figure: Treasury Auction Issuance of Bills, Notes, and Bonds, and Foreign Share of Allotments

Bar chart, "Total Issuance", which is by billions of dollars, January 2008 to August 2009. There is another series, "Foreign share", which is by percent and isplotted as a curve. These two series use two different scales. Data are monthly. Total Issuance begins at about 370 and generally increases to about 500 byFebruary 2008. It then generally decreases to about 370 by April 2008, and generally increases to about 1100 by November 2008. It then generally decreases toabout 580 by December 2008, and generally increases to about 890 by July 2009. It then generally decreases to end at about 750. Foreign Share begins at about7.5 and generally decreases to about 7 by February. It then generally increases to about 11.8 by April, and generally decreases to about 6.5 by October. It thengenerally increases to about 25 by June 2009, and generally decreases to end at about 20.5.

Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Office of Debt Management.

Summary of U.S. International Transactions

(Billions of dollars; not seasonally adjusted except as noted)

2007 20082008 2009

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 June July

Official financial flows 451.1 -54.6 -108.9 -286.5 313.5 319.6 119.1 81.7

1. Change in foreign official assets in the U.S. (increase, +) 475.2 480.0 117.5 -17.9 70.7 128.2 56.1 43.4

a. G-10 countries + ECB 36.8 -8.4 8.9 -16.0 -7.4 15.5 20.5 6.6

b. OPEC 33.0 45.5 16.1 -3.4 -5.0 -0.3 -1.3 -0.4

c. All other countries 405.5 430.0 92.5 -11.4 83.1 113.0 36.9 37.2

2. Change in U.S. official assets (decrease, +)1 -24.1 -534.6 -226.4 -268.7 242.8 191.4 63.0 38.2

Private financial flows 212.5 559.7 252.0 374.8 -266.4 n.a. … …

Banks

3. Change in net foreign positions of banking offices in the U.S.2 -86.1 -15.6 -106.7 338.9 -278.6 -191.5 -116.7 -99.0

Securities3

4. Foreign net purchases (+) of U.S. securities 673.9 70.9 -24.1 52.7 3.7 18.3 57.0 -16.0

a. Treasury securities 67.1 197.0 79.1 81.6 55.4 17.4 47.6 -19.2

b. Agency bonds -8.6 -185.0 -70.1 -21.5 -45.2 -13.8 -2.4 -2.8

c. Corporate and municipal bonds 384.7 2.5 -35.4 -3.8 -12.5 -21.0 -4.5 -17.5

d. Corporate stocks4 230.7 56.4 2.4 -3.6 6.0 35.7 16.3 23.5

5. U.S. net acquisitions (-) of foreign securities -366.8 60.5 79.6 68.6 -33.1 -89.8 -35.5 -30.8

a. Bonds -218.5 64.2 65.5 37.0 -31.8 -52.5 -20.6 -15.2

b. Stock purchases -136.4 3.4 14.1 35.8 0.6 -37.3 -14.9 -15.6

c. Stock swaps4 -11.9 -7.1 0.0 -4.3 -1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

Other flows5

6. U.S. direct investment (-) abroad -398.6 -332.0 -54.1 -84.5 -24.0 n.a. … …

7. Foreign direct investment in the U.S. 275.8 319.7 62.8 96.8 35.3 n.a. … …

8. Net derivatives (inflow, +) 6.2 -28.9 -4.1 -14.5 8.4 n.a. … …

9. Foreign acquisitions of U.S. currency -10.7 29.2 5.8 29.9 11.8 n.a. … …

10. Other (inflow, +)6 118.8 455.8 292.8 -113.0 10.0 n.a. … …

U.S. current account balance5 -726.6 -706.1 -184.2 -154.9 -101.5 n.a. … …

Capital account balance7 -1.9 1.0 3.0 -0.7 -0.7 n.a. … …

Statistical discrepancy5 64.9 200.1 38.1 67.2 55.1 n.a. … …

Note: Data in lines 1 through 5 differ in timing and coverage from the balance of payments data published by the Department of Commerce. Details may not sum to totals because of rounding.

1. Includes changes in U.S. official reserve assets and in outstanding reciprocal currency swaps with certain foreign central banks. Return to table

2. Changes in dollar-denominated positions of all depository institutions and bank holding companies plus certain transactions between broker-dealers and unaffiliated foreigners (particularlyborrowing and lending under repurchase agreements). Includes changes in custody liabilities other than U.S. Treasury bills. Return to table

3. Includes commissions on securities transactions and therefore does not match exactly the data on U.S. international transactions published by the Department of Commerce. Return to table

4. Includes (4d) or represents (5c) stocks acquired through nonmarket means such as mergers and reincorporations. Return to table

5. Quarterly data; seasonally adjusted. Return to table

6. Transactions by nonbanking concerns and other banking and official transactions not shown elsewhere plus amounts resulting from adjustments made by the Department of Commerce andrevisions (in lines 1 through 5 and 8) since publication of the quarterly data in the Survey of Current Business. Return to table

7. Seasonally adjusted; consists of transactions in nonproduced nonfinancial assets and capital transfers. Return to table

G-10 Group of Ten (Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kindom, United States). Return to table

ECB European Central Bank. Return to table

OPEC Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Return to table

n.a. Not available.

… Not applicable.

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. Treasury International Capital reports with staff adjustments.

Foreign Official Financial Inflows (+) through July 2009

(Billions of dollars; monthly rate, not seasonally adjusted)

Figure: Total

Line chart, 2005 to 2009. There are two series, "6-month moving average" and "Monthly". 6-month moving average begins at about 28 and generally decreases toabout 17 by 2005. It then generally increases to about 49 by 2007, and generally decreases to about 22 by late 2007. It then generally increases to about 65 by2008, and generally decreases to about 8 by early 2009. It then generally increases to end at about 37. Monthly begins at about 17 and generally decreases toabout 4 by early 2005. It then generally increases to about 64 by mid-2006, and generally decreases to about -19 by 2007. It then generally increases to about 110by early 2008, and generally decreases to about -10 by late 2008. It then generally increases to about 55 by mid-2009, and generally decreases to end at about44.

Figure: Treasury Securities

Line chart, 2005 to 2009. There are two series, "6-month moving average" and "Monthly". 6-month moving average begins at about 15 and generally decreases toabout 8 by 2005. It then generally increases to about 20 by early 2006, and generally decreases to about 0 by 2007. It then generally increases to about 55 byearly 2009, generally decreases to about 40 by 2009, and generally increases to end at about 50. Monthly begins at about 11 and generally decreases to about -10by 2005. It then generally increases to about 34 by early 2006, and generally decreases to about -30 by 2007. It then generally increases to about 80 by late 2008,and generally decreases to about 22 by early 2009. It then generally increases to end at about 60.

Figure: Agency Securities

Line chart, 2005 to 2009. There are two series, "6-month moving average" and "Monthly". 6-month moving average begins at about 5 and generally increases toabout 27 by 2007. It then generally decreases to about 5 by late 2007, and generally increases to about 30 by mid-2008. It then generally decreases to about -18.5by late 2008, and generally increases to about 0 by 2009. It then generally decreases to end at about -5. Monthly begins at about 8 and generally decreases toabout 0 by 2005. It then generally increases to about 35 by 2007, and generally decreases to about -3 by late 2007. It then generally increases to about 37 by2008, and generally decreases to about -40 by late 2008. It then generally increases to about 10 by early 2009, and generally decreases to end at about -14.

Figure: Foreign Official Balances Held at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Daily through August 26, 2009

Line chart, 2007 to 2009. There are two series, "Treasury securities" and "Agency securities". Treasury securities begins at about 1150 and generally increases toend at about 2000. Agency securities begins at about 600 and generally increases to about 1000 by mid-2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 800.

Source: U.S. Treasury International Capital reports with staff adjustments and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Private Securities Flows through July 2009

(Billions of dollars; monthly rate, not seasonally adjusted)

Foreign Net Purchases (+) of U.S. Securities

Figure: Total

Line chart, 2005 to 2009. There are two series, "6-month moving average" and "Monthly". 6-month moving average begins at about 40 and generally increases toabout 90 by mid-2007. It then generally decreases to about -5 by early 2009, and generally increases to end at about 12. Monthly begins at about 50 and generallydecreases to about 10 by 2005. It then generally increases to about 150 by 2007, and generally decreases to about -80 by early 2009. It then generally increasesto about 59 by mid-2009, and generally decreases to end at about -18.

Figure: Treasury Securities

Line chart, 2005 to 2009. There are two series, "6-month moving average" and "Monthly". 6-month moving average begins at about 0 and generally increases toabout 20 by 2005. It then generally decreases to about -12 by early 2006, and generally increases to about 29 by late 2008. It then generally decreases to about 1by mid-2009, and generally increases to end at about 15. Monthly begins at about 12 and generally increases to about 44 by 2005. It then generally decreases toabout -38 by 2006, and generally increases to about 92 by late 2008. It then generally decreases to about -38 by early 2009, and generally increases to about 50by 2009. It then generally decreases to end at about -20.

Figure: Agency Bonds

Line chart, 2005 to 2009. There are two series, "6-month moving average" and "Monthly". 6-month moving average begins at about 10 and generally decreases toabout -28 by 2008. It then generally increases to end at about -6. Monthly begins at about 11 and generally decreases to about -8 by 2005. It then generallyincreases to about 12 by 2005, and fluctuates but generally decreases to about -44 by mid-2008. It then generally increases to end at about -3.

Figure: Corporate and Municipal Bonds

Line chart, 2005 to 2009. There are two series, "6-month moving average" and "Monthly". 6-month moving average begins at about 27 and generally decreases toabout 20 by 2005. It then generally increases to about 60 by early 2007, and generally decreases to about -12 by late 2008. It then generally increases to about 2by 2009, and generally decreases to end at about -6. Monthly begins at about 12 and generally increases to about 88 by 2007. It then generally decreases to about-20 by 2008, and generally increases to about 32 by late 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about -18.

Figure: Corporate Stocks

Line chart, 2005 to 2009. There are two series, "6-month moving average" and "Monthly". 6-month moving average begins at about 10 and generally decreases toabout 5 by mid-2005. It then generally increases to about 27 by 2007, and generally decreases to about 0 by late 2008. It then generally increases to end at about11. Monthly begins at about 12 and generally decreases to about 2 by 2005. It then generally increases to about 42 by 2007, and generally decreases to about -30by mid-2007. It then generally increases to about 40 by late 2007, and generally decreases to about -8 by mid-2008. It then generally increases to end at about 24.

Source: U.S. Treasury International Capital reports with staff adjustments.

U.S. Net Acquisitions (-) of Foreign Securities

Figure: Total

Line chart, 2005 to 2009. There are two series, "6-month moving average" and "Monthly". 6-month moving average begins at about -14 and generally decreases toabout -44 by early 2007. It then generally increases to about 28 by late 2008, and generally decreases to end at about -20. Monthly begins at about -12 andgenerally decreases to about -60 by early 2007. It then fluctuates but generally increases to about 32 by 2008, and generally decreases to end at about -30.

Figure: Bonds

Line chart, 2005 to 2009. There are two series, "6-month moving average" and "Monthly". 6-month moving average begins at about -10 and generally increases toabout -3 by late 2005. It then generally decreases to about -28 by 2007, and generally increases to about 20 by late 2008. It then generally decreases to end atabout -10. Monthly begins at about -2 and generally decreases to about -12 by 2005. It then generally increases to about 15 by mid-2005, and generally decreasesto about -44 by early 2007. It then generally increases to about 36 by 2008, and generally decreases to about -28 by late 2008. It then generally increases to about-2 by early 2009, and generally decreases to end at about -14.

Figure: Stock Purchases & Swaps

Line chart, 2005 to 2009. There are two series, "6-month moving average" and "Monthly". 6-month moving average begins at about -4 and generally decreases toabout -18 by late 2005. It then generally increases to about -4 by 2006, and generally decreases to about -20 by 2007. It then generally increases to about 10 bylate 2008, and generally decreases to end at about -9. Monthly begins at about -8 and generally decreases to about -20 by early 2005. It then generally increasesto about 7 by 2006, and generally decreases to about -34 by late 2006. It then fluctuates but generally increases to about 19 by 2008, and generally decreases toend at about -15.

Source: U.S. Treasury International Capital reports with staff adjustments.

Exchange Value of the Dollar and Stock Market Indexes

Latest Percent change since August Greenbook

Exchange rates*

Euro ($/euro) 1.4617 -1.5

Yen (¥/$) 90.950 -4.7

Sterling ($/£) 1.6436 3.0

Canadian dollar (C$/$) 1.0760 0.7

Nominal dollar indexes*^

Broad index 103.1 0.4

Major Currencies index 74.5 0.1

OITP index 135.0 0.7

Stock market indexes

DJ Euro Stoxx 266 7.5

TOPIX 933 -2.8

FTSE 100 5042 7.9

S&P 500 1053 4.7

* Positive percent change denotes appreciation of U.S. dollar. Return to table

^ Indexed to 100 in Jan. 1997 for the Broad and OITP indexes and Mar. 1973 for the Major Currencies index. Return to table

Figure: Exchange Value of the Dollar

Line chart, 2005 to 2009. January 4, 2005 = 100. Data are weekly. There are three series, "Major currencies index", "Euro" and "Yen". Major currencies indexbegins at about 100 and generally increases to about 108 by late 2005. It then generally decreases to about 86 by 2008, and generally increases to about 107 byearly 2009. It then generally decreases to end at about 93. Euro begins at about 100 and generally increases to about 114 by late 2005. It then generallydecreases to about 84 by 2008, and generally increases to about 105 by late 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 90. Yen begins at about 100 andgenerally increases to about 118 by mid-2007. It then generally decreases to about 85 by early 2009, and generally increases to about 97 by early 2009. It thengenerally decreases to end at about 87.

There is a second line chart, May to September 2009. August 4, 2009 = 100. Data are daily. The August 2009 Greenbook is marked in the time series. There arethree series, "Major currencies index", "Euro" and "Yen". Major currencies index begins at about 109 and generally decreases to about 102 by early June. It thengenerally increases to about 105 by mid-June, and generally decreases to end at about 100. Euro begins at about 109 and generally decreases to about 101 byearly June. It then generally increases to about 104.5 by July, and generally decreases to end at about 98. Yen begins at about 104 and generally decreases toabout 99.5 by late May. It then generally increases to about 104 by June, and generally decreases to about 97 by July. It then generally increases to about 102 byAugust, and generally decreases to end at about 95. They are at about 100 at the time of the August 2009 Greenbook.

Figure: Stock Market Indexes

Line chart, 2005 to 2009. January 4, 2005 = 100. Data are weekly. There are three series, "DJ Euro Stoxx", "TOPIX", and "S&P 500". DJ Euro Stoxx begins atabout 100 and generally increases to about 161 by mid-2007. It then generally decreases to about 64 by early 2009, and generally increases to end at about 100.TOPIX begins at about 100 and generally increases to about 150 by 2006. It then generally decreases to about 101 by early 2008, and generally increases toabout 125 by mid-2008. It then generally decreases to about 62 by 2009, and generally increases to end at about 82. S&P 500 begins at about 100 and generallyincreases to about 130 by 2007. It then generally decreases to about 58 by early 2009, and generally increases to end at about 88.

There is a second line chart, May to September 2009. August 4, 2009 = 100. Data are daily. The August 2009 Greenbook is marked in the time series. There arethree series, "DJ Euro Stoxx", "TOPIX", and "S&P 500". DJ Euro Stoxx begins at about 91 and generally increases to about 95 by early June. It then generallydecreases to about 85 by July, and generally increases to end at about 110. TOPIX begins at about 88 and generally increases to about 100 by June. It thengenerally decreases to about 89 by July, and generally increases to about 102.5 by August. It then generally decreases to end at about 97.5. S&P 500 begins atabout 91 and generally increases to about 94 by June. It then generally decreases to about 87.5 by July, and generally increases to end at about 105. They are atabout 100 at the time of the August Greenbook.

Industrial Countries: Nominal and Real Interest Rates

Percent

3-month Libor 10-year nominal 10-year indexed

Latest Change since Aug. Greenbook Latest Change since

Aug. Greenbook Latest Change since Aug. Greenbook

Germany 0.72 -0.13 3.29 -0.05 1.02 -0.31

Japan 0.35 -0.06 1.32 -0.12 2.31 -0.18

United Kingdom 0.61 -0.27 3.62 -0.23 0.98 -0.32

Canada 0.50 -0.10 3.37 -0.17 … …

United States 0.29 -0.18 3.47 -0.23 1.72 -0.26

… Not applicable.

Libor: London interbank offered rate. Return to table

Figure: Nominal 10-Year Government Bond Yields

Line chart, by percent, 2005 to 2009. Data are weekly. There are three series, "Germany", "Japan", and "United States". Germany begins at about 3.6 andgenerally decreases to about 3 by 2005. It then generally increases to about 4.7 by mid-2008, and generally decreases to end at about 3.3. Japan begins at about1.5 and generally increases to about 2 by 2006. It then generally decreases to end at about 1.4. United States begins at about 4.3 and generally increases to about5.3 by mid-2006. It then generally decreases to about 2.2 by late 2008, and generally increases to end at about 3.5.

There is a second line chart, May to September 2009. Data are daily. The August 2009 Greenbook is marked in the time series. There are three series,"Germany", "Japan", and "United States". Germany begins at about 3.2 and generally increases to about 3.7 by June. It then generally decreases to end at about3.4. It is at about 3.4 at the time of the August 2009 Greenbook. Japan begins at about 1.5 and generally increases to about 1.6 by early June. It then generallydecreases to about 1.3 by July, generally increases to about 1.5 by August, and generally decreases to end at about 1.3. It is at about 1.5 at the time of the August2009 Greenbook. United States begins at about 3.2 and generally decreases to about 3.1 by May. It then generally increases to about 4 by June, and generallydecreases to about 3.4 by July. It then generally increases to about 3.9 by August, and generally decreases to end at about 3.5. It is at about 3.7 at the time of theAugust 2009 Greenbook.

Figure: Inflation-Indexed 10-Year Government Bond Yields

Line chart, by percent, 2005 to 2009. Data are weekly. There are three series, "France", "Japan", and "United States". France begins at about 1.4 and generallyincreases to about 1.7 by 2005. It then generally decreases to about 1 by 2005, and generally increases to about 2.8 by late 2008. It then generally decreases toend at about 1. Japan begins at about 0.8 and generally decreases to about 0.4 by 2005. It then generally increases to about 5 by late 2008, and generallydecreases to end at about 2.2. United States begins at about 1.7 and generally increases to about 2.9 by mid-2007. It then generally decreases to about 1.2 byearly 2008, and generally increases to about 3.6 by late 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 1.8.

There is a second line, May to September 2009. Data are daily. The August 2009 Greenbook is marked in the time series. There are three series, "France","Japan", and "United States". France begins at about 1.4 and generally decreases to about 1.2 by May. It then generally increases to about 1.6 by June, andgenerally decreases to end at about 0.88. It is at about 1.3 at the time of the August 2009 Greenbook. Japan begins at about 3.1 and generally increases to about3.6 by late May. It then generally decreases to end at about 2.3. It is at about 2.5 at the time of the August 2009 Greenbook. United States begins at about 2 andgenerally decreases to about 1.8 by May. It then generally increases to about 2.2 by June, and generally decreases to end at about 1.7. It is at about 2 at the timeof the August 2009 Greenbook.

Measures of Market Volatility

Figure: Dollar-Euro Options-Implied Volatility

Line chart, by percent, 2005 to 2009. Data are weekly. There are three series, "1-month" and "3-month". These two series track closely together throughout thechart. They begin at about 10 and generally decrease to about 5 by mid-2007. They then generally increase to about 27 by late 2008, and generally decrease toabout 12.

There is a second line chart, May to September 2009. Data are daily. The August 2009 Greenbook is marked in the time series. There are two series, "1-month"and "3-month". They begin at about 13.7 and generally decrease to about 13 by mid-May. They then generally increase together until they reach about 16 by earlyJune. 1-month generally decreases to about 10.2 by late August, and generally increase to end at about 11. It is at about 12 at the time of the August 2009Greenbook. 3-month generally decreases to about 12 by late July, generally increases to about 12.8 by early August, and generally decreases to end at about 11.7.It is at about 12.8 at the time of the August 2009 Greenbook.

Note: Dollar-Euro Options-Implied Volatility is annualized volatility derived from at-the-money options.

Figure: Yen-Dollar Options-Implied Volatility

Line chart, by percent, 2005 to 2009. Data are weekly. There are two series, "1-month" and "3-month". These two series track closely together throughout thechart. They begin at about 10 and generally decrease to about 7 by 2007. They then generally increase to about 33 by 2008, and generally decrease to end atabout 14.

There is a second line chart, May to September 2009. Data are daily. The August 2009 Greenbook is marked in the time series. There are two series, "1-month"and "3-month". 1-month begins at about 16.5 and generally decreases to about 12.5 by May. It then generally increases to about 15.75 by early June, andgenerally decreases to about 13.0 by early July. It then generally increases to about 16.1 by July, generally decreases to about 12.75 by early September, andgenerally increases to end at about 13.78. 3-month begins at about 13.5 and generally decreases to about 12.5 by May. It then generally increases to about 15.3by early June, and generally decreases to about 13.25 by early July. It then generally increases to about 15.4 by July, generally decreases to about 13.4 bySeptember, and generally increases to end at about 14.4. They are at about 14.1 at the time of the August 2009 Greenbook.

Note: Yen-Dollar Options-Implied Volatility is annualized volatility derived from at-the-money options.

Figure: Realized Stock Market Volatility

Line chart, by percent, 2005 to 2009. Data are weekly. There are three series, "DJ Euro Stoxx", "TOPIX", and "S&P 500". DJ Euro Stoxx begins at about 10 andremains about constant until early 2006. It then generally increases to about 62 by late 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 22. TOPIX begins at about15 and generally decreases to about 10 by 2005. It then generally increases to about 64 by late 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 20. S&P 500begins at about 10 and generally increases to about 14 by mid-2006. It then generally decreases to about 9 by 2006, and generally increases to about 72 by late2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 22.

There is a second line chart, May to September 2009. Data are daily. The August 2009 Greenbook is marked in the time series. There are three series, "DJ EuroStoxx", "TOPIX", and "S&P 500". DJ Euro Stoxx begins at about 36 and generally decreases to end at about 20. It is at about 23 at the time of the August 2009Greenbook. TOPIX begins at about 29 and generally increases to about 30 by mid-May. It then generally decreases to about 17.5 by August, and generallyincreases to end at about 18. It is at about 20 at the time of the August 2009 Greenbook. S&P 500 begins at about 40 and generally decreases to end at about 18.It is at about 20.5 at the time of the August 2009 Greenbook.

Note: Realized Stock Market Volatility is annualized standard deviation of 60-day window of daily returns.

Figure: Realized 10-Year Bond Volatility

Line chart, by percent, 2005 to 2009. Data are weekly. There are three series, "Germany", "Japan", and "United States". Germany begins at about 4 and generallyincreases to about 5 by mid-2006. It then generally decreases to about 2.5 by early 2007, and generally increases to about 10 by early 2009. It then generallydecreases to end at about 6. Japan begins at about 4 and generally decreases to about 3 by early 2005. It then generally increases to about 6.5 by mid-2008, andgenerally decreases to end at about 2.5. United States begins at about 6 and generally decreases to about 4 by 2006. It then generally increases to about 16 bylate 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 10.5.

There is a second line chart, May to September 2009. Data are daily. The August 2009 Greenbook is marked in the time series. There are three series,"Germany", "Japan", and "United States". Germany begins at about 10 and generally decreases to end at about 6. It is at about 7.5 at the time of the August 2009Greenbook. Japan begins at about 3 and remains about constant until late June. It then generally decreases to end at about 2.5. It is at about 2.5 at the time of theAugust 2009 Greenbook. United States begins at about 14 and generally decreases to about 13.5 by mid-May. It then generally increases to about 15 by earlyJune, and generally decreases to about 12 by June. It then generally increases to about 13.5 by August, and generally decreases to end at about 11. It is at about13 at the time of the August 2009 Greenbook.

Note: Realized 10-Year Bond Volatility is annualized standard deviation of 60-day window of daily returns.

Emerging Markets: Exchange Rates and Stock Market Indexes

Exchange value of the dollar Stock market index

LatestPercent change since

Aug. Greenbook*Latest

Percent change since

Aug. Greenbook

Mexico 13.3365 1.8 29625 6.3

Brazil 1.8058 -1.5 59264 5.8

Venezuela 2.14 0.0 53795 16.5

China 6.8289 -0.0 3034 -12.6

Hong Kong 7.7501 0.0 20866 0.3

Korea 1217.4 -0.2 1653 5.6

Taiwan 32.57 -0.2 7346 5.6

Thailand 33.90 -0.2 703 9.7

* Positive percent change denotes appreciation of U.S. dollar. Return to table

Figure: Exchange Value of the Dollar

Line chart, 2005 to 2009. January 4, 2005 = 100. Data are weekly. There are four series, "Mexico", "Brazil", "Korea", and "China". Mexico begins at about 100,remains about constant until late 2007, and generally decreases to about 90 by mid-2008. It then generally increases to about 138 by early 2009, and generallydecreases to end at about 120. Brazil begins at about 100 and generally decreases to about 60 by mid-2008. It then generally increases to about 90 by late 2008,and generally decreases to end at about 68. Korea begins at about 100 and generally decreases to about 89 by late 2007. It then generally increases to about 150by early 2009, and generally decreases to end at about 120. China begins at about 100, generally decreases to about 80 by mid-2008, and generally remainsconstant until the end.

There is a second line chart, May to September 2009. August 4, 2009 = 100. Data are daily. The August 2009 Greenbook is marked in the time series. There arefour series, "Mexico", "Brazil", "Korea", and "China". Mexico begins at about 105 and generally decreases to about 97.5 by mid-May. It then generally increases toabout 105.5 by July, and generally decreases to about 97.5 by August. It then generally increases to end at about 101. Brazil begins at about118 and generallydecreases to about 104 by June. It then generally increases to about 110 by late June, and generally decreases to end at about 97.8. Korea begins at about 105and generally decreases to about 100 by early June. It then generally increases to about 107.5 by July, and generally decreases to end at about 99.5 by earlyAugust. It then generally decreases to end at about 99. China begins at about 100 and remains constant until the end. They are at about 100 at the time of theAugust 2009 Greenbook.

Figure: Stock Market Indexes

Line chart, 2005 to 2009. January 4, 2005 = 100. Data are weekly. There are four series, "Mexico", "Brazil", "Korea", and "Hong Kong". Mexico begins at about 100and generally increases to about 250 by mid-2007. It then generally decreases to about 125 by late 2008, and generally increases to end at about 225. Brazilbegins at about 100 and generally increases to about 280 by 2008. It then generally decreases to about 128 by late 2008, and generally increases to end at about225. Korea begins at about 100 and generally increases to about 230 by late 2007. It then generally decreases to about 115 by late 2008, and generally increasesto end at about 285. Hong Kong begins at about 100 and generally increases to about 220 by late 2007. It then generally decreases to about 80 by early 2009, andgenerally increases to end at about 150.

There is a second line chart, May to September 2009. August 4, 2009 = 100. Data are daily. The August 2009 Greenbook is marked in the time series. There arefour series, "Mexico", "Brazil", "Korea", and "Hong Kong". Mexico begins at about 84 and generally increases to about 92 by June. It then generally decreases toabout 84 by July, and generally increases to end at about 107. Brazil begins at about 90 and generally decreases to about 88 by mid-May. It then generallyincreases to about 98 by late May, and generally decreases to about 87 by June. It then generally increases to end at about 107. Korea begins at about 89 andgenerally decreases to about 88 by June. It then generally increases to about end at about 108. Hong Kong begins at about 79 and generally increases to about102 by early August. It then generally decreases to about 95 by early September, and generally increases to end at about 103.5. They are at about 100 at the timeof the August 2009 Greenbook.

Emerging Markets: Short-Term Interest Rates and Dollar-Denominated Bond Spreads

Percent

Short-term interest rates* Dollar-denominated bond spreads**

Latest Change since Aug. Greenbook Latest Change since

Aug. Greenbook

Mexico 4.49 0.01 1.79 -0.15

Brazil 9.00 0.40 2.24 -0.16

Argentina 12.44 -0.63 7.47 -1.35

China … … 0.86 -0.16

Korea 2.10 0.00 … …

Taiwan 1.14 0.07 … …

Singapore 0.31 0.00 … …

Hong Kong 0.14 0.07 … …

* One-month interest rate except 1-week rate for Korea. (No reliable short-term interest rate exists for China.) Return to table

** EMBI+ Spreads or EMBI Global Spreads over similar-maturity U.S. Treasury securities. Return to table

… Not applicable. Korea, Taiwan, and Hong Kong have no outstanding dollar-denominated sovereign bonds. Return to table

Figure: EMBI+ Spreads

Line chart, by percent, 2005 to 2009. Data are weekly. There are three series, "Overall", "Mexico", and "Brazil". Overall begins at about 3.7 and generallydecreases to about 1.5 by 2007. It then generally increases to about 8 by 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 3.2. Mexico begins at about 1.7 andgenerally decreases to about 0.8 by 2007. It then generally increases to about 5.3 by late 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 2. Brazil begins at about 4and generally increases to about 4.8 by 2005. It then generally decreases to about 1.4 by 2007, and generally increases to about 6 by 2008. It then generallydecreases to end at about 2.2.

There is a second line chart, May to September 2009. Data are daily. The August 2009 Greenbook is marked in the time series. There are three series, "Overall","Mexico", and "Brazil". Overall begins at about 5.3 and generally decreases to about 3.5 by early August. It then generally increases to about 3.9 by earlySeptember, and generally decreases to end at about 3.3. It is at about 3.5 at the time of the August 2009 Greenbook. Mexico begins at about 3 and generallydecreases to about 2.1 by late May. It then generally increases to about 2.9 by July and generally decreases to about 1.7 by August. It then generally increases toabout 2.5 by early September, and generally decreases to end at about 1.8. It is at about 1.9 at the time of the August 2009 Greenbook. Brazil begins at about 3.5and generally decreases to about 2.4 by August. It then generally increases to about 2.7 by late August, and generally decreases to end at about 2.2. It is at about2.5 at the time of the August 2009 Greenbook.

Figure: EMBI Global Spreads

Line chart, by percent, 2005 to 2009. Data are weekly. There are three series, "China", "Malaysia", and "Indonesia". China begins at about 0.9 and remains aboutconstant until mid-2007. It then generally increases to about 3.2 by 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 1. Malaysia begins at about 0.9 and remainsabout constant until mid-2007. It then generally increases to about 5 by 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 2. Indonesia begins at about 2.8 andgenerally decreases to about 2 by 2005. It then generally increases to about 3.2 by mid-2005, and generally decreases to about 1.8 by mid-2007. It then generallyincreases to about 10.2 by late 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 2.8.

There is a second line, May to September 2009. Data are daily. The August 2009 Greenbook is marked in the time series. There are three series, "China","Malaysia", and "Indonesia". China begins at about 1.5 and generally decreases to about 0.5 by June. It then generally increases to about 1.7 by July, andgenerally decreases to end at about 0.9. It is at about 1 at the time of the August 2009 Greenbook. Malaysia begins at about 2.9 and generally decreases to about1.3 by early August. It then generally increases to end at about 2.8. It is at about 1.2 at the time of the August 2009 Greenbook. Indonesia begins at about 5.4 andgenerally decreases to about 3 by early August. It then generally increases to about 3.6 by early September, and generally decreases to end at about 2.9. It is atabout 3.2 at the time of the August 2009 Greenbook.

Advanced Foreign Economies

Figure: Average Real Gross Domestic Product

Line chart, by annualized percent change, s.a., 1999 to 2009. Data are quarterly. The series begins at about 3.7 and generally increases to about 5.5 by early2000. It then generally decreases to about -0.7 by 2001, and generally increases to about 3.7 by early 2007. It then generally decreases to about -7.8 by early2009, and generally increases to end at about -1.6.

Note: Chain weighted by moving bilateral shares in U.S. merchandise exports.

Source: FRB staff calculations.

Figure: Consumer Prices

Line chart, by 12-month percent change, s.a., 1999 to 2009. Data are monthly. There are four series, "Japan", "Euro area", "Canada", and "United Kingdom".Japan begins at about 0.4 and generally decreases to about -1.5 by early 2002. It then generally increases to about 1 by late 2004, and generally decreases toabout -1.2 by late 2005. It then generally increases to about 2.4 by mid-2008, and generally decreases to end at about -2.2. Euro area begins at about 0.9 andgenerally increases to about 3.2 by 2001. It then generally decreases to about 1.6 by mid-2007, and generally increases to about 4 by mid-2008. It then generallydecreases to about -0.7 by mid-2009, and generally increases to end at about -0.2. Canada begins at about 0.9 and generally increases to about 3.9 by 2001. Itthen generally decreases to about 0.8 by late 2001, and generally increases to about 4.7 by early 2003. It then generally decreases to about 0.8 by early 2004, andgenerally increases to about 3.4 by 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about -1. United Kingdom begins at about 1.6 and generally decreases to about 0.5by 2000. It then generally increases to about 5.2 by 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 1.5.

Source: Haver Analytics.

Figure: Official or Targeted Interest Rates

Line chart, by percent, 1999 to 2009. There are four series, "Japan", "Euro area", "Canada", and "United Kingdom". Japan begins at about 0.3 and generallydecreases to about 0 by early 2001. It then remains about constant until mid-2006, generally increases to about 0.5 by early 2007, and generally decreases to endat about 0.1. Euro area begins at about 3 and generally decreases to about 2.5 by 1999. It then generally increases to about 4.7 by 2000, and generally decreasesto about 2 by 2003. It remains about constant until late 2005, generally increases to about 4.3 by mid-2008, and generally decreases to end at about 1. Canadabegins at about 5 and generally decreases to about 4.5 by 1999. It then generally increases to about 5.7 by 2000, and generally decreases to about 2 by early2002. It then generally increases to about 3.3 by 2003, and generally decreases to about 2 by 2004. It then generally increases to about 4.5 by mid-2007, andgenerally decreases to end at about 0.2. United Kingdom begins at about 6.3 and generally decreases to about 5 by 1999. It then generally increases to about 6 by2000, and generally decreases to about 3.5 by mid-2003. It then generally increases to about 5.7 by mid-2007, and generally decreases to end at about 0.5.

Source: Bloomberg.

Japanese Real GDP

(Percent change from previous period except as noted, s.a.a.r.)

Component 2007 1 2008 12008 2009

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

GDP 1.9 -4.5 -5.1 -12.8 -12.4 2.3

Total domestic demand .5 -1.8 -4.6 -1.9 -9.1 -4.0

Consumption .3 -.2 .5 -2.9 -4.6 3.0

Private investment -1.9 -8.8 -14.0 -20.7 -28.6 -20.7

Public investment -4.3 -4.7 6.4 8.8 10.5 33.6

Government consumption 3.2 .1 -.7 5.5 .4 -1.3

Inventories2 .3 .1 -2.0 2.2 -1.2 -2.8

Exports 9.8 -12.9 -2.9 -44.2 -63.9 28.1

Imports 1.4 2.6 .7 10.3 -47.7 -18.9

Net exports2 1.3 -2.3 -.6 -9.5 -5.9 5.1

1. Q4/Q4. Return to table

2. Percentage point contribution to GDP growth. Return to table


Japan

Figure: Economic Activity

Line chart, late 1999 to 2009. Index, 2005 = 100. There are two series, "Industrial production" and "Tertiary services". Industrial production begins at about 95 andgenerally increases to about 103 by late 2000. It then generally decreases to about 87 by 2001, and generally increases to about 110 by late 2007. It then generallydecreases to about 68 by early 2009, and generally increases to end at about 83. Tertiary services begins at about 93 and generally increases to about 104 by2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 95.


Figure: Real Trade

Line chart, late 1999 to 2009. Index, 2005 =100. There are two series, "Real exports" and "Real imports". Real exports begins at about 73 and generally increasesto about 82 by 2000. It then generally decreases to about 67 by late 2001, and generally increases to about 134 by early 2008. It then generally decreases to about77 by early 2009, and generally increases to end at about 95. Real imports begins at about 79 and generally increases to about 110 by early 2007. It thengenerally decreases to about 81 by early 2009, and generally increases to end at about 88.


Figure: Labor Market

Line chart, late 1999 to 2009. There are two series, "Unemployment rate", which is by percent, and "Job openings to applications", which is a ratio. Unemploymentrate begins at about 4.6 and generally increases to about 5.5 by 2002. It then generally decreases to about 3.55 by mid-2007, and generally increases to end atabout 5.7. Job openings to applications begins at about 0.49 and generally increases to about 0.65 by late 2000. It then generally decreases to about 0.5 by early2002, and generally increases to about 1.08 by early 2007. It then generally decreases to end at about 0.42.


Figure: Consumer Price Inflation

Line chart, by percent, 12-month basis, n.s.a., late 1999 to 2009. There are two series, "Consumer price inflation" and "Core". Consumer price inflation begins atabout -0.7 and generally decreases to about -1.7 by early 2002. It then generally increases to about 2.5 by mid-2008, and generally decreases to end at about -2.3. Core begins at about -0.2 and generally decreases to about -1.2 by early 2001. It then generally increases to about -0.2 by 2003, and generally decreases toabout -1 by 2004. It then generally increases to about 0 by mid-2008, and generally decreases to end at about -0.8.

Note: Core excludes food and energy; staff calculations.


Economic Indicators(Percent change from previous period except as noted; seasonally adjusted)

Indicator2008 2009 2009

Q4 Q1 Q2 May June July Aug.

Housing starts -8.3 -10.6 -15.7 -2.7 -1.2 -.5 n.a.

Machinery orders1 -15.1 -9.9 -4.9 -3.0 9.7 -9.3 n.a.

Household expenditures -1.4 -1.9 .9 -.1 .1 .5 n.a.

New car registrations -12.6 -12.2 14.4 4.4 7.4 11.6 -.7

Business sentiment2 -24.0 -46.0 -45.0 … … … …

Wholesale prices3 2.6 -1.8 -5.4 -5.5 -6.7 -8.5 -8.5

1. Private sector, excluding ships and electric power. Return to table

2. Tankan survey, diffusion index. Level. Return to table

3. Percent change from year earlier; not seasonally adjusted. Return to table

n.a. Not available.

… Not applicable.


Euro-Area Real GDP


Component 2007 1 2008 12008 2009

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

GDP 2.2 -1.7 -1.4 -7.0 -9.5 -.5

Total domestic demand 1.9 -.3 .9 -2.5 -7.7 -3.3

Consumption 1.2 -.7 -.1 -1.8 -2.0 .7

Investment 3.3 -5.5 -5.3 -13.0 -19.5 -5.0

Government consumption 1.9 2.5 2.0 2.3 2.6 1.8

Inventories2 .1 .7 1.5 .7 -2.9 -2.8

Exports 4.0 -6.7 -3.6 -25.7 -31.0 -4.3

Imports 3.5 -3.8 1.3 -17.5 -27.8 -10.9

Net exports2 .3 -1.4 -2.3 -4.7 -1.8 2.8

Memo: GDP of selected countries

France 2.1 -1.6 -.9 -5.5 -5.3 1.4

Germany 1.6 -1.8 -1.3 -9.4 -13.4 1.3

Italy .1 -2.9 -3.1 -8.1 -10.4 -2.0




Euro Area

Figure: Nominal Exports and Imports

Line chart, by billions of U.S. dollars, late 1999 to 2009. There are two series, "Exports" and "Imports". These two series track closely together throughout the chart.They begin at about 75 and generally increase to about 225 by mid-2008. They then generally decrease to about 128 by early 2009, and generally increase to endat about 140.


Figure: Economic Sentiment

Line chart, by percent balance, late 1999 to 2009. There are two series, "Consumer confidence" and "Industrial confidence". Consumer confidence begins at about-2 and generally increases to about 3 by 2000. It then generally decreases to about -22 by 2003, and generally increases to about -1 by 2007. It then generallydecreases to about -35 by early 2009, and generally increases to end at about -22. Industrial confidence begins at about -2 and generally increases to about 6 by2000. It then generally decreases to about -18 by late 2001, and generally increases to about 6 by 2007. It then generally decreases to about -38 by early 2009,and generally increases to end at about -26.



Line chart, by percent, late 1999 to 2009. The series begins at about 8.75 and generally decreases to about 7.8 by late 2000. It then generally increases to about9.0 by 2005, and generally decreases to about 7.2 by early 2008. It then generally increases to end at about 9.5.



Line chart, by percent, 12-month basis, n.s.a., late 1999 to 2009. There are two series, "Consumer price inflation" and "Core". Consumer price inflation begins atabout 1.4 and generally increases to about 3.2 by 2001. It then generally decreases to about 1.6 by 2006, and generally increases to about 4.1 by mid-2008. Itthen generally decreases to about -0.8 by 2009, and generally increases to end at about -0.2. Core begins at about 0.8 and generally increases to about 2.5 byearly 2002. It then generally decreases to about 1.3 by late 2005, generally increases to about 2 by 2007, and generally decreases to end at about 1.4.

Note: Core excludes all food and energy; staff calculations.



Indicator2008 2009 2009


Industrial production1 -6.2 -7.5 -2.7 .7 -.2 -.3 n.a.

Retail sales volume2 -.8 -.8 -.3 -.5 .0 -.2 n.a.

New car registrations -7.0 .9 12.2 5.2 2.2 -2.1 1.0

Employment -.3 -.7 -.5 … … … …

Producer prices3 2.7 -2.0 -5.2 -5.4 -5.9 -7.8 n.a.

M33 9.2 6.5 4.7 4.3 4.1 3.5 n.a.

1. Excludes construction. Return to table

2. Excludes motor vehicles. Return to table

3. Eurostat harmonized definition. Percent change from year earlier. Return to table

n.a. Not available.

… Not applicable.

M3 Manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders. Return to table


U.K. Real GDP


Component 2007 1 2008 12008 2009

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

GDP 2.4 -1.8 -2.9 -7.0 -9.3 -2.6

Total domestic demand 3.1 -2.9 -3.1 -8.7 -9.5 -3.4

Consumption 2.2 -.5 -1.3 -4.3 -5.3 -3.4

Investment 4.9 -7.8 -10.7 -4.7 -26.9 -17.0

Government consumption 1.2 3.5 1.9 4.3 .9 3.1

Inventories2 .6 -2.0 -.8 -6.3 -1.5 1.0

Exports 3.4 -3.8 -1.7 -15.6 -25.0 -10.2

Imports 5.6 -7.7 -2.8 -20.2 -24.1 -12.2

Net exports2 -.8 1.4 .4 2.1 .4 .9




United Kingdom


Line chart, by percent, 12-month basis, n.s.a., late 1999 to 2009. There are two series, "Consumer price inflation" and "Core". Consumer price inflation begins atabout 1.2 and generally decreases to about 0.5 by 2000. It then generally increases to about 3.2 by early 2007, and generally decreases to about 1.8 by 2007. Itthen generally increases to about 5.5 by 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 1.7. Core begins at about 0.5 and generally decreases to about -0.4 bymid-2000. It then generally increases to about 1.4 by 2001, and generally decreases to about 0.6 by 2006. It then generally increases to end at about 1.7.



Figure: Unemployment Rates

Line chart, by percent, late 1999 to 2009. There are two series, "Labor Force Survey" and "Claimant count". Labor Force Survey begins at about 5.8 and generallydecreases to about 4.7 by 2004. It then generally increases to about end at about 8. Claimant count begins at about 4, generally decreases to about 2.4 by early2008, and generally increases to end at about 5.


Figure: Purchasing Managers Survey

Line chart, 50+ = expansion, late 1999 to 2009. There are two series, "Services" and "Manufacturing". Services begins at about 57.5 and generally increases toabout 60 by late 1999. It then generally decreases to about 46.5 by 2001, and generally increases to about 61 by late 2006. It then generally decreases to about 40by 2008, and generally increases to end at about 54. Manufacturing begins at about 54 and generally increases to about 57 by late 1999. It then generallydecreases to about 45.5 by late 2001, and generally increases to about 56.5 by 2004. It then generally decreases to about 35 by late 2008, and generally increasesto end at about 50.

Source: Reuters.

Figure: Labor Costs

Line chart, by percent, 12-month basis, late 1999 to 2009. There are two series, "Unit wage costs" and "Average earnings". Unit wage costs begins at about -2.2and generally increases to about 5 by 2002. It then generally decreases to about -5.5 by mid-2003, and generally increases to about 12.5 by early 2009. It thengenerally decreases to end at about 2.4. Average earnings begins at about 5 and generally decreases to about 2.8 by late 2001. It then generally increases toabout 6 by early 2008, and generally decreases to about -6.5 by early 2009. It then generally increases to about 3.5 by 2009, and generally decreases to end atabout -1.

Note: Unit wage costs is for manufacturing industries. Average earnings is for whole economy, including bonuses.



Indicator2008 2009 2009


Producer input prices1 9.0 .7 -8.9 -8.8 -12.0 -12.2 -7.5

Industrial production -4.5 -5.1 -.5 -.6 .6 .6 n.a.

Business confidence2 -38.3 -45.0 -22.0 -17.0 -17.0 -14.0 -5.0

Consumer confidence2 -28.1 -31.0 -19.9 -20.8 -18.1 -16.0 -16.2

Trade balance3 -9.6 -11.8 -12.3 -3.7 -3.9 -4.0 n.a.

Current account3 -13.7 -12.2 -- … … … …

1. Percent change from year earlier. Return to table

2. Percent balance. Return to table

3. Level in billions of U.S. dollars. Return to table

n.a. Not available.

… Not applicable.

Source: Haver Analytics; FRB staff calculations.

Canadian Real GDP


Component 2007 1 2008 12008 2009

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

GDP 2.8 -1.0 .4 -3.7 -6.1 -3.4

Total domestic demand 6.6 -1.1 .6 -6.1 -10.9 -.0

Consumption 5.4 .2 .6 -3.1 -1.2 1.8

Investment 4.5 -3.6 .6 -14.8 -22.8 -5.6

Government consumption 3.7 3.1 -.0 2.5 2.1 3.2

Inventories2 1.7 -1.1 .1 -1.2 -5.1 -.4

Exports -1.5 -7.3 -4.1 -17.7 -30.4 -19.3

Imports 8.5 -7.7 -3.4 -23.4 -38.9 -8.5

Net exports2 -4.2 .7 -.4 2.2 4.1 -3.4




Canada

Figure: Real Gross Domestic Product by Industry

Line chart, by percent change from year earlier, late 1999 to 2009. The series begins at about 6.1 and generally increases to about 6.8 by late 1999. It thengenerally decreases to about 0.2 by 2001, and generally increases to about 4.4 by 2004. It then generally decreases to end at about -3.6.

Note: Constructed from various Statistics Canada surveys and supplements to the quarterly income and expenditure-based estimates.


Figure: Real Trade

Line chart, late 1999 to 2009. Index, 2002 = 100. There are two series, "Real exports" and "Real imports". They begin at about 97 and generally increase to about105 by mid-2000. Real exports generally decreases to about 92 by 2003, and generally increases to about 114 by late 2006. It then generally decreases to about77 by 2009, and generally increases to end at about 84. Real imports generally decreases to about 94 by late 2001, and generally increases to about 145 by mid-2008. It then generally decreases to about 107 by early 2009, and generally increases to end at about 118.



Line chart, by percent, late 1999 to 2009. The series begins at about 7.2 and generally decreases to about 6.75 by mid-2000. It then generally increases to about8.0 by late 2001, and generally decreases to about 5.78 by early 2008. It then generally increases to end at about 8.7.



Line chart, by percent, 12-month basis, n.s.a., late 1999 to 2009. There are two series, "Consumer price inflation" and "Core". Consumer price inflation begins atabout 2.2 and generally increases to about 4.1 by 2001. It then generally decreases to about 0.6 by late 2001, and generally increases to about 4.8 by early 2003.It then generally decreases to about 0.6 by early 2004, and generally increases to about 3.5 by mid-2008. It then generally decreases to end at about -1. Corebegins at about 1.6 and generally increases to about 4.2 by early 2003. It then generally decreases to about 0.9 by 2004, generally increases to about 2.4 by mid-2007, and generally decreases to end at about 1.



Economic Indicators(Percent change from previous period and seasonally adjusted, except as noted)

Indicator2008 2009 2009


Industrial production -3.2 -5.0 -4.1 -1.8 -.6 n.a. n.a.

New manufacturing orders -9.3 -12.2 -2.0 -12.0 16.7 -4.0 n.a.

Retail sales -1.7 -1.1 .5 .6 .4 n.a. n.a.

Employment .1 -1.4 -.4 -.2 -.0 -.3 .2

Wholesale sales -7.6 -7.3 .1 .1 1.0 n.a. n.a.

Ivey PMI1 43.8 41.5 53.4 48.4 58.2 51.8 55.7

1. PMI Purchasing managers index. Not seasonally adjusted. 50+ indicates expansion. Return to table

n.a. Not available.

Source: Haver Analytics; Bank for International Settlements.

Chinese Economic Indicators

(Percent change from previous period, seasonally adjusted, except as noted)

Indicator 2007 20082009


Real GDP1 12.3 6.9 6.5 18.5 … … …

Industrial production 19.5 1.8 7.8 4.4 6.2 -.7 1.7

Consumer prices2 6.5 1.2 -.6 -1.5 -1.7 -1.8 -1.2

Merch. trade balance3 262.7 298.1 324.9 144.1 65.5 71.2 134.1

1. Gross domestic product. Annual rate. Quarterly data estimated by staff from reported 4-quarter growth rates. Annual data are Q4/Q4. Return to table

2. Non-seasonally adjusted percent change from year-earlier period, except annual data, which are Dec./Dec. Return to table

3. Billions of U.S. dollars, annual rate. Imports are valued at cost, insurance, and freight. Return to table

n.a. Not available.

… Not applicable.

Source: CEIC.

Indian Economic Indicators


Indicator 2007 20082009


Real GDP1 9.3 5.8 6.3 7.3 … … …

Industrial production 9.9 4.4 1.0 3.6 6.1 -1.0 n.a.

Consumer prices2 5.5 9.7 9.4 8.2 8.3 10.9 n.a.

Wholesale prices2 3.8 6.2 3.2 .5 -1.0 -1.3 -.9

Merch. trade balance3 -79.2 -121.6 -57.7 -60.2 -72.6 -76.4 n.a.

Current account4 -11.3 -36.1 19.0 n.a. … … …

1. Gross domestic product. Annual rate. Annual data are Q4/Q4. Return to table


3. Billions of U.S. dollars, annual rate. Return to table

4. Billions of U.S. dollars, not seasonally adjusted, annual rate. Return to table

n.a. Not available.

… Not applicable.

Source: CEIC.

China and India

Figure: Industrial Production

Line chart, 2003 to 2009. Index, January 2000 = 100. There are two series, "China" and "India". China begins at about 130 and generally increases to about 332 by2008. It then generally decreases to about 300 by late 2008, and generally increases to end at about 362.5. India begins at about 115 and generally increases toend at about 188.

Source: CEIC.


Line chart, by percent change from year earlier, 2003 to 2009. There are two series, "China" and "India". China begins at about 0.4 and generally increases toabout 5.2 by mid-2004. It then generally decreases to about 0.9 by early 2006, and generally increases to about 8.8 by early 2008. It then generally decreases toabout -1.8 by 2009, and generally increases to end at about -1.2. India begins at about 3.5, and, with some volatility, generally increases to end at about 11.

Source: China Statistic and Consultancy Service Center; CEIC.

Figure: Merchandise Trade Balances

Line chart, by billions of dollars, 2003 to 2009. Data are 3-month moving averages (n.s.a.). There are two series, "China" and "India". China begins at about 2 andgenerally decreases to about 0 by 2004. It then generally increases to about 44 by early 2009, and generally decreases to end at about 7. India begins at about -1and generally decreases to about -14 by 2008. It then generally increases to end at about -5.

Source: China Statistic and Consultancy Service Center; CEIC.

Figure: Benchmark Interest Rates

Line chart, by percent, 2003 to 2009. There are two series, "China" and "India". China begins at about 5.4 and remain about constant until 2004. It then generallyincreases to about 7.5 by late 2007, and generally decreases to end at about 5.4. India begins at about 5.5 and generally increases to about 7.5 by early 2003. Itthen generally decreases to about 4.5 by 2003, and generally increases to about 9 by mid-2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 4.7.

Source: Bloomberg; CEIC.

Figure: Gross External Debt

Line chart, by percent of Gross Domestic Product, 2003 to 2009. There is one series, "India". It begins at about 22 and generally decreases to about 17 by 2006. Itthen generally increases to end at about 24.

Source: Bank for International Settlements; Haver Analytics.

Figure: Short-Term External Debt

Line chart, by percent of reserves, 2003 to 2009. There is one series, "India". It begins at about 6.5 and generally increases to about 7.5 by 2003. It then generallydecreases to about 4.5 by early 2004, and generally increases to end at about 20.

Source: Bank for International Settlements; CEIC.

Economic Indicators for Newly Industrialized Economies: Growth


2007 20082009

Q1 Q2 May June July

Real GDP1

Hong Kong 7.1 -2.7 -16.1 13.9 … … …

Korea 5.7 -3.4 .5 11.0 … … …

Singapore 5.8 -4.0 -12.2 20.7 … … …

Taiwan 6.5 -8.5 -3.7 11.8 … … …

Industrial production

Hong Kong -1.5 -6.6 -2.8 n.a. … … …

Korea 7.0 3.0 -2.7 11.4 1.4 5.7 2.0

Singapore 5.9 -4.2 -7.4 13.9 -2.6 -9.6 23.4

Taiwan 7.8 -1.8 -8.0 17.3 1.6 5.0 1.2


n.a. Not available.

… Not applicable.

Source: CEIC; Reuters.

Economic Indicators for Newly Industrialized Economies: Merchandise Trade Balance

(Billions of U.S. dollars; seasonally adjusted annual rate)

2007 20082009


Hong Kong -23.5 -25.9 -19.9 -15.5 -19.2 -39.9 n.a.

Korea 28.2 6.0 41.0 68.0 59.0 61.5 n.a.

Singapore 36.2 18.4 11.6 26.8 23.9 34.1 n.a.

Taiwan 16.8 4.4 26.5 21.7 18.2 23.2 27.9

n.a. Not available.

Source: CEIC.

Economic Indicators for Newly Industrialized Economies: Consumer Price Inflation

(Non-seasonally adjusted percent change from year earlier except as noted)

2007 1 2008 12009


Hong Kong 3.8 2.1 1.7 -.1 -.9 -1.5 n.a.

Korea 3.6 4.1 3.9 2.8 2.0 1.6 2.2

Singapore 4.4 4.3 2.1 -.5 -.5 -.5 n.a.

Taiwan 3.3 1.3 .0 -.8 -2.0 -2.3 -.8

1. Dec./Dec. Return to table

n.a. Not available.

Source: CEIC.

Newly Industrialized Economies


Line chart, 2003 to 2009. Index, January 2000 = 100. There are four series, "Korea", "Singapore", "Hong Kong", and "Taiwan". Korea begins at about 115 andgenerally increases to about 172 by early 2008. It then generally decreases to about 133 by late 2008, and generally increases to end at about 170. Singaporebegins at about 101 and generally decreases to about 89 by early 2003. It then generally increases to about 180 by mid-2007, and generally decreases to about112 by early 209. It then generally increases to end at about 158. Hong Kong begins at about 79 and generally increases to about 85 by mid-2005. It thengenerally decreases to end at about 73. Taiwan begins at about 105 and generally increases to about 150 by early 2008. It then generally decreases to about 95by early 2009 and generally increases to end at about 125.

Source: CEIC.


Line chart, by percent change from year earlier, 2003 to 2009. There are four series, "Korea", "Singapore", "Hong Kong", and "Taiwan". Korea begins at about 4and generally increases to about 4.8 by 2003. It then generally decreases to about 2 by 2007, and generally increases to about 6 by mid-2008. It then generallydecreases to about 1.5 by 2009, and generally increases to end at about 2. Singapore begins at about 1 and generally decreases to about -0.2 by mid-2003. Itthen generally increases to about 2.3 by 2004, and generally decreases to about -0.1 by 2005. It then generally increases to about 7.4 by 2008, and generallydecreases to end at about -0.6. Hong Kong begins at about -1.6 and generally decreases to about -4 by mid-2003. It then generally increases to about 6.5 by mid-2008, and generally decreases to end at about -1. Taiwan begins at about 1 and generally decreases to about -2 by 2003. It then generally increases to about 3.8by mid-2005, and generally decreases to about -1.2 by 2006. It then generally increases to about 6.5 by early 2008, and generally decreases to end at about -0.8.

Source: CEIC; Bank of Korea; Reuters.


Line chart, by billions of dollars, 2003 to 2009. Data are 3-month moving averages (n.s.a.). There are four series, "Korea", "Singapore", "Hong Kong", and "Taiwan".Korea begins at about 1 and generally decreases to about 0.8 by 2003. It then generally increases to about 3.7 by early 2005, and generally decreases to about -1.2 by 2008. It then generally increases to about 6.2 by 2009, and generally decreases to end at about 5.2. Singapore begins at about 1.7 and generally increasesto about 3.3 by 2006. It then generally decreases to about 0.5 by early 2009, and generally increases to end at about 2.2. Hong Kong begins at about -0.8 andgenerally decreases to about -1.9 by 2004. It then generally increases to about -0.6 by late 2004, and generally decreases to about -3 by mid-2008. It thengenerally increases to about -0.6 by late 2008, and generally decreases to end at about -1.9. Taiwan begins at about 1.3 and generally increases to about 1.6 by2003. It then generally decreases to about -0.6 by late 2004, and generally increases to about 2.7 by 2007. It then generally decreases to about -0.1 by early 2008,and generally increases to end at about 2.

Source: CEIC.


Line chart, by percent, 2003 to 2009. There are three series, "Korea", "Hong Kong", and "Taiwan". Korea begins at about 4.3 and generally decreases to about 3.2by late 2004. It then generally increases to about 5.2 by mid-2008, and generally decreases to end at about 2. Hong Kong begins at about 2.9 and generallydecreases to about 2.6 by mid-2003. It then generally increases to about 6.8 by 2006, and generally decreases to end at about 0.5. Taiwan begins at about 1.6and generally decreases to about 1.4 by 2003. It then generally increases to about 3.7 by mid-2008, and generally decreases to end at about 1.1.

Source: Bloomberg.


Line chart, by percent of Gross Domestic Product, 2003 to 2009. There are three series, "Korea", "Hong Kong", and "Taiwan". Korea begins at about 25 andgenerally increases to end at about 51. Hong Kong begins at about 220 and generally increases to about 325 by late 2007. It then generally decreases to end atabout 322. Taiwan begins at about 15 and generally increases to about 28 by 2006. It then generally decreases to end at about 25.

Source: Bank for International Settlements.


Line chart, by percent of reserves, 2003 to 2009. There are three series, "Korea", "Hong Kong", and "Taiwan". Korea begins at about 40 and generally decreases toabout 25 by late 2004. It then generally increases to about 78 by 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 75. Hong Kong begins at about 198 and generallyincreases to about 354 by late 2007. It then generally decreases to end at about 260. Taiwan begins at about 24 and generally increases to about 35 by mid-2006.It then generally decreases to end at about 25.


ASEAN-4 1 Economic Indicators: Growth


Indicator 2007 20082009

Q1 Q2 May June July

Real GDP2

Indonesia 5.8 5.3 4.4 4.5 … … …

Malaysia 7.2 .1 -17.6 14.5 … … …

Philippines 6.4 2.9 -8.3 9.8 … … …

Thailand 5.9 -4.2 -7.2 9.6 … … …

Industrial production3

Indonesia4 5.6 3.0 1.9 -.7 3.1 -2.9 -1.8

Malaysia 2.1 .5 -4.5 2.0 -.6 .2 5.5

Philippines -2.7 .3 -17.0 13.5 5.8 1.5 n.a.

Thailand 8.2 5.3 -9.0 9.8 .3 2.5 1.9

1. Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Return to text


3. Annual data are annual averages. Return to table

4. Staff estimate. Return to table

n.a. Not available.

… Not applicable.

Source: CEIC.

ASEAN-4 1 Economic Indicators: Merchandise Trade Balance

(Billions of U.S. dollars; seasonally adjusted annualized rate)

Indicator 2007 20082009

Q1 Q2 May June July

Indonesia 39.6 31.6 29.8 36.9 34.5 34.1 31.4

Malaysia 29.2 42.7 38.1 30.8 33.1 31.1 29.8

Philippines -5.0 -7.7 -8.7 -5.0 -6.3 -6.3 n.a.

Thailand 11.6 .2 32.6 22.6 34.8 12.2 11.8


n.a. Not available.

Source: CEIC; Bank of Thailand; Philippines Economic Indicators Telegram (PEIT); Monetary Authority of Singapore.

ASEAN-4 1 Economic Indicators: Consumer Price Inflation

(Non-seasonally adjusted percent change from year earlier except as noted)

Indicator 2007 2 2008 22009


Indonesia 5.8 11.1 8.6 5.6 3.7 2.7 2.8

Malaysia 2.4 4.4 3.7 1.3 -1.4 -2.4 -2.4

Philippines 3.9 8.0 6.9 3.2 1.5 .2 .1

Thailand 3.2 .4 -.2 -2.8 -4.0 -4.4 -1.0


2. Dec./Dec. Return to table

n.a. Not available.

Source: CEIC; IMF International Financial Statistics database.

ASEAN-4


Line chart, 2003 to 2009. Index, January 2000 = 100. There are four series, "Indonesia", "Malaysia", "Philippines" and "Thailand". Indonesia begins at about 140and generally increases to about 173 by late 2004. It then generally decreases to about 139 by late 2005, and generally increases to end at about 162.5. Malaysiabegins at about 110 and generally increases to about 162.5 by early 2008. It then generally decreases to about 132 by early 2009, and generally increases to endat about 145. Philippines begins at about 100 and generally decreases to about 62.5 by late 2008. It then generally increases to end at about 77. Thailand beginsat about 132 and generally increases to about 212 by late 2007. It then generally decreases to about 164 by late 2008, and generally increases to end at about190.

Source: CEIC; Bank of Philippines.


Line chart, by percent change from year earlier, 2003 to 2009. There are four series, "Indonesia", "Malaysia", "Philippines" and "Thailand". Indonesia begins atabout 8.8 and generally decreases to about 5 by early 2004. It then generally increases to about 18 by late 2005, and generally decreases to about 5 by late 2006.It then generally increases to about 12.2 by 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 2.5. Malaysia begins at about 2 and generally decreases to about 0.8. Itthen generally increases to about 5 by 2006, and generally decreases to about 2 by 2007. It then generally increases to about 8 by mid-2008, and generallydecreases to end at about -2.5. Philippines begins at about 3 and generally increases to about 8 by late 2004. It then generally decreases to about 2.5 by 2007,and generally increases to about 12.5 by mid-2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 0. Thailand begins at about 2.5 and generally decreases to about 1by early 2004. It then generally increases to about 6.5 by 2005, and generally decreases to about 0.8 by 2007. It then generally increases to about 9.5 by mid-2008, generally decreases to about -4.8 by mid-2009, and generally increases to end at about -1.

Source: IMF International Financial Statistics; CEIC.


Line chart, by billions of dollars, 2003 to 2009. Data are 3-month moving averages (n.s.a.). There are four series, "Indonesia", "Malaysia", "Philippines" and"Thailand". Indonesia begins at about 2 and generally increases to about 3.8 by late 2006. It then generally decreases to about 2 by early 2009, and generallyincreases to end at about 2.8. Malaysia begins at about 1.5 and generally increases to about 4.5 by mid-2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 2.8.Philippines begins at about -0.4 and generally decreases to about -0.9 by early 2008. It then generally increases to end at about -0.5. Thailand begins at about 0.2and generally increases to about 0.8 by 2003. It then generally decreases to about -1.2 by 2005, and generally increases to about 1.3 by 2008. It then generallydecreases to about -1.3 by late 2008, and generally increases to about 2.8 by early 2009, and generally decreases to end at about 1.6.

Source: CEIC; Philippines Economic Indicators Telegram (PEIT); Bank of Thailand Monthly Statistical Release.


Line chart, by percent, 2003 to 2009. There are four series, "Indonesia", "Malaysia", "Philippines" and "Thailand". Indonesia begins at about 12.5 and generallydecreases to about 7.5 by early 2004. It then generally increases to about 12.5 by late 2005, and generally decreases to end at about 7.5. Malaysia begins atabout 2.5 and remains about constant until mid-2005. It then generally increases to about 3 by 2006, and generally decreases to end at about 2. Philippines beginsat about 7 and generally increases to about 7.5 by 2005. It then generally decreases to end at about 4. Thailand begins at about 2 and generally decreases toabout 1.5 by mid-2003. It then generally increases to about 5 by 2006, and generally decreases to end at about 1.5.

Source: Bloomberg; Haver Analytics.


Line chart, by percent of Gross Domestic Product, 2003 to 2009. There are four series, "Indonesia", "Malaysia", "Philippines" and "Thailand". Indonesia begins atabout 55 and generally decreases to about 29 by 2008. It then generally increases to about 34 by early 2009, and generally decreases to end at about 29.Malaysia begins at about 43 and generally increases to about 52 by 2003. It then generally decreases to about 29 by late 2007, and generally increases to end atabout 43. Philippines begins at about 75 and generally decreases to about 30 by late 2008. It then generally increases to end at about 35. Thailand begins at about40 and generally decreases to about 20 by late 2007. It then generally increases to end at about 24.

Note. ASEAN is the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

Source: CEIC; Bank for International Settlements.


Line chart, by percent of reserves, 2003 to 2009. There are four series, "Indonesia", "Malaysia", "Philippines" and "Thailand". Indonesia begins at about 49 andgenerally decreases to about 38 by early 2004. It then generally increases to about 62 by 2005, and generally decreases to about 16 by 2006. It then generallyincreases to about 41 by late 2008, and generally decreases to end at about 34. Malaysia begins at about 30 and generally increases to about 32 by 2003. It thengenerally decreases to about 20 by late 2006, and generally increases to end at about 35. Philippines begins at about 48 and generally decreases to about 45 bylate 2003. It then generally increases to about 57 by early 2004, and generally decreases to about 20 by early 2008. It then generally increases to about 27 by2008, and generally decreases to end at about 20. Thailand begins at about 27 and generally decreases to about 20 by late 2004. It then generally increases to

about 31 by early 2006, and generally decreases to end at about 16.


Mexican Economic Indicators


Indicator 2007 20082009


Real GDP1 3.7 -1.7 -21.2 -4.4 … … …

Overall economic activity 3.1 1.0 -5.2 -1.6 -.2 n.a. n.a.

Industrial production 2.4 -1.0 -4.7 -1.1 -.2 2.8 n.a.

Unemployment rate2 3.7 4.0 4.8 5.7 5.6 5.7 n.a.

Consumer prices3 3.8 6.5 6.2 6.0 5.7 5.4 5.1

Merch. trade balance4 -10.1 -17.3 -12.1 -4.9 -8.3 -14.7 n.a.

Merchandise imports4 281.9 308.6 228.8 217.3 223.8 226.2 n.a.

Merchandise exports4 271.9 291.3 216.7 212.3 215.5 211.4 n.a.

Current account5 -8.2 -15.7 -13.5 1.8 … … …


2. Percent; counts as unemployed those working 1 hour a week or less. Return to table




n.a. Not available.

… Not applicable.

Source: Haver Analytics; Bank of Mexico.

Brazilian Economic Indicators


Indicator 2007 20082009


Real GDP1 6.1 1.2 -3.8 7.8 … … …

Industrial production 6.0 3.1 -6.8 3.7 .4 2.2 n.a.

Unemployment rate2 9.3 7.9 8.5 8.3 7.9 7.9 n.a.

Consumer prices3 4.5 5.9 5.8 5.2 4.8 4.5 4.4

Merch. trade balance4 40.0 25.0 21.0 43.2 50.4 23.4 32.1

Current account5 1.6 -28.2 -19.8 -8.5 -6.4 -20.0 n.a.


2. Percent. Return to table

3. Non-seasonally adjusted percent change from year-earlier period, except annual data, which are Dec./Dec. Price index is IPCA. Return to table



n.a. Not available.

… Not applicable.

Source: Haver Analytics; IMF International Financial Statistics database; Intituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica.

Latin America


Line chart, 2003 to 2009. Index, January 2000 = 100. There are two series, "Brazil" and "Mexico". Brazil begins at about 108 and generally decreases to about 105by 2003. It then generally increases to about 142 by 2008, and generally decreases to about 113 by late 2008. It then generally increases to end at about 127.Mexico begins at about 97 and generally increases to about 115 by early 2007. It then generally decreases to about 101 by 2009, and generally increases to end atabout 104.

Source: Fundacion de Investigaciones Economicas Latinoamericanas; Haver Analytics.


Line chart, by percent change from year earlier, 2003 to 2009. There are two series, "Brazil" and "Mexico". Brazil begins at about 14.8 and generally increases toabout 17.5 by 2003. It then generally decreases to about 3 by late 2006, and generally increases to about 6.5 by mid-2008. It then generally decreases to end atabout 4.4. Mexico begins at about 5.2 and generally increases to about 5.5 by 2003. It then generally decreases to about 2.8 by late 2005, and generally increasesto about 7 by late 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 5.

Source: IMF International Financial Statistics; Getulio Vargas Foundation; Haver Analytics; Bank of Mexico.


Line chart, by billions of dollars, 2003 to 2009. Data are 3-month moving averages (n.s.a.). There are two series, "Brazil" and "Mexico". Brazil begins at about 1.6and generally increases to about 4.3 by early 2006. It then generally decreases to about 1.3 by late 2008, and generally increases to about 3.6 by mid-2009. Itthen generally decreases to end at about 2.9. Mexico begins at about -0.2 and generally increases to about 0 by early 2003. It then generally decreases to about -1.4 by early 2005, and generally increases to about 0.3 by early 2006. It then generally decreases to about -2 by late 2008, and generally increases to end atabout -0.8.

Source: IMF International Financial Statistics, Bank of Mexico.


Line chart, by percent, 2003 to 2009. There are two series, "Brazil" and "Mexico". Brazil begins at about 25.5 and generally increases to about 26.5 by 2003. It thengenerally decreases to about 16 by 2004, and generally increases to about 20 by 2005. It then generally decreases to end at about 8.5. Mexico begins at about 9and generally decreases to about 4 by 2003. It then generally increases to about 9.8 by 2005, and generally decreases to end at about 4.5.

Source: Bloomberg.


Line chart, by percent of Gross Domestic Product, 2003 to 2009. There are two series, "Brazil" and "Mexico". Brazil begins at about 187.5 and generally decreasesto about 48 by mid-2008. It then generally increases to end at about 62.5. Mexico begins at about 25 and generally decreases to about 18 by mid-2008. It thengenerally increases to end at about 24.

Source: Haver Analytics; Bank for International Settlements.


Line chart, by percent of reserves, 2003 to 2009. There are two series, "Brazil" and "Mexico". Brazil begins at about 81 and generally decreases to about 24 by late2006. It then generally increases to about 32 by early 2007, and generally decreases to end at about 17. Mexico begins at about 47 and generally decreases toabout 25 by 2006. It then generally increases to end at about 28.




Accessible Material

September 2009 Greenbook Supplement Tables and Charts†

Supplemental Notes

The Domestic Nonfinancial Economy

Private Housing Activity(Millions of units, seasonally adjusted; annual rate except as noted)

Sector 20082009


All units

Starts .91 .53 .54 .59 .59 .60

Permits .91 .53 .53 .57 .56 .58

Single-family units

Starts .62 .36 .43 .48 .49 .48

Permits .58 .36 .41 .43 .46 .46

Adjusted permits1 .58 .37 .42 .45 .47 .47

New homes

Sales .49 .34 .37 .40 .43 n.a.

Months' supply2 10.68 11.61 9.55 8.51 7.51 n.a.

Existing homes

Sales 4.35 4.12 4.24 4.33 4.61 n.a.

Months' supply2 9.98 9.69 8.80 8.39 8.03 n.a.

Multifamily units

Starts .28 .17 .12 .11 .10 .12

Built for rent .22 .14 .10 n.a. n.a. n.a.

Built for sale .07 .03 .02 n.a. n.a. n.a.

Permits .33 .17 .12 .14 .10 .12

Condos and co-ops

Existing home sales .56 .47 .52 .56 .63 n.a.

1. Adjusted permits equal permit issuance plus total starts outside of permit-issuing areas. Return to table

2. At current sales rate; expressed as the ratio of seasonally adjusted inventories to seasonally adjusted sales. Quarterly and annual figures are averages of monthly figures. Return to table

n.a. Not available. Return to table


Figure: Private Housing Starts and Permits

Line chart, by millions of units (seasonally adjusted annual rate), 1999 to August 2009. There are three series, "Single-family starts", "Single-family adjustedpermits", and "Multifamily starts". Single-family starts and Single-family adjusted permits track closely together throughout the chart. They begin at about 1.33 andgenerally decrease to about 1.12 by mid-2000. They then generally increase to about 1.8 by 2005, and generally decrease to about .35 by early 2009. They thengenerally increase to end at about .5. Multifamily starts begins at about .4 and generally decreases to about .3 by mid-1999. It then generally increases to about .5by early 2000, and fluctuates but generally decreases to end at about .12.

Note: Adjusted permits equal permit issuance plus total starts outside of permit-issuing areas.


Nonfarm Inventory Investment(Billions of dollars; seasonally adjusted annual rate)

Measure and sector2008 2009


Real inventory investment (chained 2005 dollars)

Total nonfarm business -35.7 -114.9 -168.6e … … …

Motor vehicles -.7 -63.6 -48.1e … … …

Nonfarm ex. motor vehicles -35.1 -51.3 -120.5e … … …

Manufacturing and trade ex. wholesale and retail motor vehicles and parts -19.8 -49.3 -111.0e -86.3e -138.2e n.a.

Manufacturing 8.2 -28.9 -40.0e -26.7e -45.3e n.a.

Wholesale trade ex. motor vehicles & parts -10.2 -8.8 -52.4e -36.8e -81.8e n.a.

Retail trade ex. motor vehicles & parts -17.8 -11.6 -18.6e -22.8e -11.0e n.a.

Book-value inventory investment (current dollars)

Manufacturing and trade ex. wholesale and retail motor vehicles and parts -155.9 -143.2 -150.2 -124.9 -178.0 -121.4

Manufacturing -65.2 -77.3 -63.6 -48.4 -68.9 -43.8

Wholesale trade ex. motor vehicles & parts -55.7 -47.3 -62.9 -49.8 -90.6 -55.3

Retail trade ex. motor vehicles & parts -34.9 -18.6 -23.7 -26.8 -18.5 -22.3

n.a. Not available.


e Staff estimate of real inventory investment based on revised book-value data. Return to table

Source: For real inventory investment, U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; for book-value data, Census Bureau.

Figure: Inventory Ratios ex. Motor Vehicles

Line chart, by months, 2000 to 2009. There are two series, "Staff flow-of-goods system" and "Census book-value data". Staff flow-of-goods system begins at about1.77 and generally decreases to about 1.52 by late 2007. It then generally increases to end at about 1.65 by August. Census book-value data begins at about 1.35and generally increases to about 1.41 by early 2001. It then generally decreases to about 1.18 by late 2005, and generally increases to about 1.38 by late 2008. Itthen generally decreases to end at about 1.31 by July.

Note: Flow-of-goods system covers total industry ex. motor vehicles and parts, and inventories are relative to consumption. Census data cover manufacturing and trade ex. motor vehicles andparts, and inventories are relative to sales.

Source: Census Bureau; staff calculation.

Figure: ISM Customers' Inventories: Manufacturing

Line chart, an index, 2000 to August 2009. The series begins at about 47.2 and generally increases to about 56 by early 2001. It then generally decreases to about37 by mid-2004, and generally increases to about 57.5 by late 2008. It then generally decreases to end at about 38.8.

Note: A number above 50 indicates inventories are "too high."

Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM), Manufacturing ISM Report on Business.

The Domestic Financial Economy

Commercial Bank Credit(Percent change, annual rate, except as noted; seasonally adjusted)

Type of credit 2007 2008 H2 2008

Q1 2009

Q2 2009

July 2009

Aug. 2009

Level1 Aug. 2009

Total 9.9 5.1 4.5 -5.5 -3.5 -12.6 -10.6 9,260

Loans2

Total 10.7 4.6 2.1 -7.1 -6.6 -19.3 -17.0 6,886

Core 9.6 5.2 2.7 -3.0 -5.8 -8.7 -14.4 6,120

To businesses

Commercial and industrial 19.0 16.6 11.4 -13.4 -15.3 -12.1 -27.8 1,453

Commercial real estate 9.3 6.0 2.9 -.7 -1.7 -5.1 -7.8 1,690

To households

Residential real estate 5.6 -3.0 -5.2 -1.4 -1.5 -9.5 -12.3 2,131

Revolving home equity 5.7 13.0 13.0 10.0 2.8 -6.1 -5.1 606

Closed-end mortgages 5.6 -7.9 -11.2 -5.6 -3.2 -10.8 -15.2 1,524

Consumer 6.7 7.2 7.4 8.0 -7.0 -8.4 -9.3 847

Memo: Originated3 6.4 5.7 4.4 1.4 -4.3 -3.8 -11.4 1,248

Other 18.7 .5 -1.5 -34.2 -13.0 -95.6 -37.8 766

Securities

Total 7.0 6.9 12.9 -.3 6.3 7.7 8.5 2,373

Treasury and agency -6.1 18.6 32.4 5.9 -5.8 7.9 17.2 1,419

Other4 28.3 -7.0 -11.2 -9.6 25.5 7.3 -4.3 954

Note: Yearly annual rates are Q4 to Q4; quarterly and monthly annual rates use corresponding average levels. Data have been adjusted to remove the effects of mark-to-market accounting rules(FAS 115) and the initial consolidation of certain variable interest entities (FIN 46). Data also account for the effects of nonbank structure activity of $5 billion or more.

1. Billions of dollars. Pro rata averages of weekly (Wednesday) levels. Return to table

2. Excludes interbank loans. Return to table

3. Includes an estimate of outstanding loans securitized by commercial banks. Return to table

4. Includes private mortgage-backed securities; securities of corporations, state and local governments, and foreign governments; and any trading account securities that are not Treasury oragency securities. Return to table


Selected Financial Market Quotations(One-day quotes in percent except as noted)

Instrument2008 2009 Change to Sept. 17 from selected dates (percentage points)

Sept. 12 June 22 Aug. 11 Sept. 17 2008 Sept. 12 2009 June 22 2009 Aug. 11

Short-term

FOMC intended federal funds rate 2.00 .13 .13 .13 -1.87 .00 .00

Treasury bills1

3-month 1.46 .20 .18 .10 -1.36 -.10 -.08

6-month 1.80 .34 .28 .20 -1.60 -.14 -.08

Commercial paper (A1/P1 rates)2

1-month 2.39 .30 .22 .18 -2.21 -.12 -.04

3-month 2.75 .63 .29 .22 -2.53 -.41 -.07

Large negotiable CDs1

3-month 2.79 .40 .32 .25 -2.54 -.15 -.07

6-month 3.09 .68 .46 .36 -2.73 -.32 -.10

Eurodollar deposits3

1-month 2.60 .65 .50 .40 -2.20 -.25 -.10

3-month 3.00 1.05 .80 .55 -2.45 -.50 -.25

Bank prime rate 5.00 3.25 3.25 3.25 -1.75 .00 .00

Intermediate- and long-term

U.S. Treasury4

2-year 2.24 1.17 1.20 .97 -1.27 -.20 -.23

5-year 2.97 2.71 2.70 2.41 -.56 -.30 -.29

10-year 3.93 4.04 3.97 3.68 -.25 -.36 -.29

U.S. Treasury indexed notes5

5-year 1.33 1.45 1.54 1.01 -.32 -.44 -.53

10-year 1.77 2.10 1.89 1.63 -.14 -.47 -.26

Municipal general obligations (Bond Buyer)6 4.54 4.86 4.65 4.20 -.34 -.66 -.45

Private instruments

10-year swap 4.26 3.97 3.98 3.63 -.63 -.34 -.35

10-year FNMA7 4.36 4.40 4.35 4.11 -.25 -.29 -.24

10-year AA8 6.62 5.94 5.41 5.05 -1.57 -.89 -.36

10-year BBB8 7.22 7.58 6.72 6.38 -.84 -1.20 -.34

10-year high yield8 10.66 12.13 10.61 9.98 -.68 -2.15 -.63

Home mortgages (FHLMC survey rate)

30-year fixed 5.78 5.42 5.29 5.04 -.74 -.38 -.25

1-year adjustable 5.03 4.93 4.72 4.58 -.45 -.35 -.14

Stock exchange indexRecord high 2009 Change to Sept. 17 from selected dates (percent)

Level Date June 22 Aug. 11 Sept. 17 Record high 2009 June 22 2009 Aug. 11

Dow Jones Industrial 14,165 10-9-07 8,339 9,241 9,784 -30.93 17.33 5.87

S&P 500 Composite 1,565 10-9-07 893 994 1,065 -31.92 19.31 7.15

Nasdaq 5,049 3-10-00 1,766 1,970 2,127 -57.87 20.41 7.97

Russell 2000 856 7-13-07 493 562 615 -28.08 24.89 9.49

D.J. Total Stock Index 15,807 10-9-07 9,130 10,243 11,008 -30.36 20.58 7.47

1. Secondary market. Return to table

2. Financial commercial paper. Return to table

3. Bid rates for Eurodollar deposits collected around 9:30 a.m. eastern time. Return to table

4. Derived from a smoothed Treasury yield curve estimated using off-the-run securities. Return to table

5. Derived from a smoothed Treasury yield curve estimated using all outstanding securities and adjusted for the carry effect. Return to table

6. Most recent Thursday quote. Return to table

7. Constant-maturity yields estimated from Fannie Mae domestic noncallable coupon securities. Return to table

8. Derived from smoothed corporate yield curves estimated using Merrill Lynch bond data. Return to table

NOTES:September 12, 2008, is the last business day before Lehman Brothers Holdings filed for bankruptcy.June 22, 2009, is the day before the June 2009 FOMC monetary policy announcement.August 11, 2009, is the day before the most recent FOMC monetary policy announcement.

The International Economy

U.S. Current Account(Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate)

PeriodGoods and services,

net

Investment income,

net

Other income and transfers,

net

Current account balance

Annual

2007 -701.4 97.9 -123.1 -726.6

2008 -695.9 125.6 -135.7 -706.1

Quarterly

2008: Q3 -743.8 143.7 -136.7 -736.7

Q4 -578.0 92.1 -133.6 -619.5

2009: Q1 -369.6 80.4 -128.6 -417.8

Q2 -332.0 72.8 -135.9 -395.2

Change

Q3-Q2 -12.4 31.4 -4.9 14.2

Q4-Q3 165.8 -51.6 3.1 117.2

Q1-Q4 208.3 -11.7 5.0 201.7

Q2-Q1 37.6 -7.7 -7.3 22.6


Summary of U.S. International Transactions(Billions of dollars; not seasonally adjusted except as noted)

2007 20082008 2009

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 June July

Official financial flows 451.1 -54.6 -108.9 -286.5 313.5 316.1 117.9 82.6

1. Change in foreign official assets in the U.S. (increase, +) 475.2 480.0 117.5 -17.9 70.7 124.7 54.9 44.9

a. G-10 countries + ECB 36.8 -8.4 8.9 -16.0 -7.4 15.5 20.5 6.6

b. OPEC 33.0 45.5 16.1 -3.4 -5.0 -0.3 -1.3 -0.4

c. All other countries 405.5 430.0 92.5 -11.4 83.1 117.5 38.4 38.7

2. Change in U.S. official assets (decrease, +)1 -24.1 -534.6 -226.4 -268.7 242.8 191.4 63.0 37.7

Private financial flows 212.5 559.7 252.0 374.8 -278.1 -257.8 … …

Banks

3. Change in net foreign positions of banking offices in the U.S.2 -86.1 -15.6 -106.7 338.9 -278.6 -191.5 -116.7 -99.0

Securities3

4. Foreign net purchases (+) of U.S. securities 673.9 70.9 -24.1 52.7 -3.8 -8.0 41.7 -14.8

a. Treasury securities 67.1 197.0 79.1 81.6 52.4 -22.5 27.8 -19.0

b. Agency bonds -8.6 -185.0 -70.1 -21.5 -49.7 -0.3 2.1 -1.8

c. Corporate and municipal bonds 384.7 2.5 -35.4 -3.8 -12.5 -21.0 -4.5 -17.5

d. Corporate stocks4 230.7 56.4 2.4 -3.6 6.0 35.7 16.3 23.5

5. U.S. net acquisitions (-) of foreign securities -366.8 61.4 79.6 69.5 -35.2 -91.9 -36.2 -31.5

a. Bonds -218.5 62.1 65.5 34.9 -33.9 -54.6 -21.3 -15.9

b. Stock purchases -136.4 6.4 14.1 38.8 0.6 -37.3 -14.9 -15.6

c. Stock swaps4 -11.9 -7.1 0.0 -4.3 -1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

Other flows5

6. U.S. direct investment (-) abroad -398.6 -332.0 -54.1 -84.5 -40.3 -44.9 … …

7. Foreign direct investment in the U.S. 275.8 319.7 62.8 96.8 23.9 26.1 … …

8. Net derivatives (inflow, +) 6.2 -28.9 -4.1 -14.5 8.4 n.a. … …

9. Foreign acquisitions of U.S. currency -10.7 29.2 5.8 29.9 11.8 -1.9 … …

10. Other (inflow, +)6 118.8 454.9 292.8 -113.9 35.6 54.3 … …

U.S. current account balance5 -726.6 -706.1 -184.2 -154.9 -104.5 -98.8 … …

Capital account balance7 -1.9 1.0 3.0 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 … …

Statistical discrepancy5 64.9 200.1 38.1 67.2 69.8 41.2 … …

Note: Data in lines 1 through 5 differ in timing and coverage from the balance of payments data published by the Department of Commerce. Details may not sum to totals because of rounding.

1. Includes changes in U.S. official reserve assets and in outstanding reciprocal currency swaps with certain foreign central banks. Return to table

2. Changes in dollar-denominated positions of all depository institutions and bank holding companies plus certain transactions between broker-dealers and unaffiliated foreigners (particularlyborrowing and lending under repurchase agreements). Includes changes in custody liabilities other than U.S. Treasury bills. Return to table

3. Includes commissions on securities transactions and therefore does not match exactly the data on U.S. international transactions published by the Department of Commerce. Return to table

4. Includes (4d) or represents (5c) stocks acquired through nonmarket means such as mergers and reincorporations. Return to table

5. Quarterly data; seasonally adjusted. Return to table

6. Transactions by nonbanking concerns and other banking and official transactions not shown elsewhere plus amounts resulting from adjustments made by the Department of Commerce andrevisions (in lines 1 through 5 and 8) since publication of the quarterly data in the Survey of Current Business. Return to table

7. Seasonally adjusted; consists of transactions in nonproduced nonfinancial assets and capital transfers. Return to table

G-10 Group of Ten (Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kindom, United States). Return to table

ECB European Central Bank. Return to table

OPEC Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Return to table

… Not applicable.

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. Treasury International Capital reports with staff adjustments.



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