Civil air threats

Middle EastSyriaThe burgeoning civil war coupled with the deployment of advanced air defence weapons across the country has created a complex overflight risk environment at all altitudes within Syrian airspace. Multiple state and non-state actors have a capability to target aviation assets in-flight over Syria. Syrian rebel groups, the Syrian military and the extremist Islamic State (IS) group are the actors which comprise the main threat to civil aviation flight operations over the country at altitudes above FL260.

Syrian rebel forces have shown a capability and intent to target aircraft operating at altitudes above FL450. The Syrian rebel group, Jayish al-Islam, is assessed to be in possession of multiple Russian-made radar-guided 9K33 Osa (SA-8 GECKO) conventional surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems. The SA-8 has the capability to engage aircraft at altitudes near FL450 and at ranges out to approximately 9 miles (15km). During June-July 2016, Jayish al-Islam reportedly used its SA-8

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AIR TRANSPORTWar zone risks

In response to the July 2014 shoot-down of flight MH17 over the Ukraine, there has been an increased emphasis on threats to civil aviation flight operations over defined risk areas. Multiple national and international civil

aviation governing bodies and civilian flight operators have begun reevaluating their current overflight policies. In addition, civil aviation entities are required to conduct risk assessments of their flight routes on a continuous basis for compliance, actuarial and insurance purposes.

The most pertinent risk areas are those where there is a significant kinetic threat to civil aviation flight operations above FL260, as this is where civilian aircraft set their cruising altitudes. Our analysis has identified nine separate risk areas around the globe where civil aviation flight operations face a persistent kinetic threat at altitudes above FL260 from air, air defence and unsafe missile activity conducted by a range of state and non-state actors. This article provides a summary of these risk areas, including incident-specific analysis by our aviation security team of activity which poses a significant kinetic threat to civil aviation.

Following the shootdown of MH17, there is a need for up-to-date and accurate risk assessment of airspace for civiloperators. ANDREW NICHOLSON, CEO at UK companyOsprey Flight Solutions, gives an overview of recent threats.

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THE SYRIAN MILITARY HAS A VARIETY OF CONVENTIONAL SAM SYSTEMS CAPABLE OF ENGAGING AIRCRAFT IN-FLIGHT AT ALTITUDES WELL OVER FL260

Buk-M2E SAM system – an older varinat of which was responsible for downing MH17.

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to approximately 100 miles (160km). Most recently, Saudi-led coalition forces in Marib Governorate used a Patriot conventional SAM system to shoot down two SSMs fired by Houthi rebels on 19 April 2017.

Saudi Arabia

Spillover from the conflict in Yemen has led the Saudi Arabian government to enact airspace restrictions over the south-west areas of the country. The Security Control of Air Traffic and Air Navigation Aids (SCATANA) zone of South-West Saudi Arabia is an emerging overflight risk area. This is due to the presence of Saudi Arabian military forces which have shown a capability and intent to use Patriot conventional SAM systems to target and shoot down SSMs fired into the country from Yemen by Houthi rebel forces. Saudi Arabian military forces have shot down at least nine SSMs fired into the SCATANA area of the country since the start of 2017 alone.

EuropeNagorno-Karabakh

Since 1994, escalations in the Armenian and Azeri conflict over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region have led to the deployment and use of advanced air defence weapons, making the territory a persistent overflight risk area. Both Armenian-backed forces and the Azeri military have conventional SAM systems capable of engaging aircraft operating at altitudes over FL900 deployed to the Nagorno-Karabakh area of hostilities. In late-April 2017, the Azeri military claimed Armenian-backed forces in

systems to shoot-down at least three Syrian military air assets.

The Syrian military has a variety of conventional SAM systems capable of engaging aircraft in-flight at altitudes well over FL260. Most recently, the Syrian military engaged Israeli military aircraft in-flight over the Golan Heights with S-200 Vega (SA-5 GAMMON) conventional SAM systems on 16 March 2017. The SA-5 has the capability to engage aircraft at altitudes over FL900 and at ranges out to 190 miles (300km). In the most concerning incident to date, a civilian passenger plane conducting a charter flight from the Egyptian city of Sharm el-Sheikh to the Russian city of Kazan was unsuccessfully engaged over Syria by a conventional SAM system fired by unknown actors on 29 April 2013.

The extremist IS group is also assessed to be in possession of conventional SAM system components acquired via usurping equipment from Syrian military installations. In a recent incident, IS militants reportedly took control of a Syrian military conventional SAM site in Homs Governorate in mid-December 2016. However, a US military airstrike against IS group targets on 16 December 2016 may have destroyed the site.

In June 2016, reports emerged that the IS group acquired Russian-made radar-guided 2K12 KUB (SA-6 GAINFUL) conventional SAM system components in Daraa Governorate. The SA-6 is capable of engaging targets at altitudes of over FL450 and at ranges out to approximately 13 miles (24km). Reports dating back to 2014 indicate the IS group acquired SA-6 components located in Dayr az Zawr Governorate. However, Russian military airstrikes reportedly targeted IS group SA-6 components within Dayr az Zawr Governorate in late-January 2016.

Yemen

The conflict zone stemming from the war between Houthi rebel forces and the Saudi-led coalition coupled with the deployment of advanced air defence weapons by both sides has created a complex overflight risk environment over Yemen. Both Houthi rebels and Saudi-led coalition forces have conventional SAM systems capable of engaging aircraft operating at altitudes over FL800 deployed within the country. In late-January 2016, Houthi rebels published a video of the refurbishment and live firing of a Russian-made S-75 Dvina (SA-2 GUIDELINE) conventional SAM system. The SA-2 has the capability to engage aircraft at altitudes over FL800 and at ranges out to approximately 28 miles (45km).

Saudi-led coalition forces have deployed MIM-104 Patriot conventional SAM systems to Marib and Aden Governorates to shoot down surface-to-surface missiles (SSMs) fired by Houthi rebel forces. The Patriot has the capability to engage aircraft at altitudes above FL800 and at ranges out

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Nagorno-Karabakh fired a SA-8 that failed to down any of its aircraft. On 15 May, the Azeri military claimed to have destroyed an Armenian-backed forces SA-8 conventional SAM system in Nagorno-Karabakh. Surface-to-air fire incidents are a regular occurrence in the Nagorno-Karabakh area with at least 12 drones shot down since May 2016 during hostilities between Armenian-backed forces and the Azeri military.

Eastern Ukraine The simmering war in Eastern Ukraine remains ongoing in the years since the downing of MH17, which exemplifies the persistent overflight risk area emanating from the conflict. Both Pro-Russia militia forces and the Ukrainian military have conventional SAM systems capable of engaging aircraft operating at altitudes over FL450 deployed to the provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk. In early-June 2016, Pro-Russia militia forces are assessed to have shot down an Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) drone via a SA-8 over Donetsk Province. In a more recent incident, Pro-Russia militia forces are suspected to have conducted a SAM launch in Luhansk Province on 7 April 2017, according to the OSCE. On 28 April 2017, Ukrainian military forces claimed to have downed a Russian-made Orlan-10 drone over Donetsk Province that was reportedly operated by Pro-Russia militia forces.

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AIR TRANSPORTWar zone risks

Africa

South Sudan

The conflict zone environment stemming from the civil war in South Sudan coupled with the deployment of advanced air defence weapons by government military forces has created a complex overflight risk area in the airspace over the country. On 11 December 2015, the South Sudanese government issued a statement announcing its forces would shoot-down any aircraft operating over the country without permission, citing the increase of unauthorised incursions into its airspace. The South Sudanese military has conventional SAM systems capable of engaging aircraft operating at altitudes up to approximately FL800. On 24 December 2015, the US government reported the deployment of Russian-made radar-guided S-125 Pechora (SA-3 GOA) conventional SAM system to the environs of the capital city of Juba by South Sudanese military forces. The SA-3 has the capability to engage aircraft at altitudes over FL800 and at ranges out to approximately 22 miles (35 km).

Libya

Since 2011, civil aviation entities globally have reevaluated overflight of Libya due to the enduring civil war and subsequent conflict zone

Dutch and Australian police at the MH17 crash site on 3 August 2014.

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environment. Both the Libyan National Army (LNA) and Misratan forces have conventional SAM system components; which when refurbished, are capable of engaging aircraft operating at altitudes over FL800. In January 2017, the LNA reportedly deployed Russian-made infrared-guided 9K31 Strela-1 (SA-9 GASKIN) conventional SAM systems to Ras Lanuf and Zintan. The SA-9 has the capability to engage aircraft at altitudes up to approximately FL150 and at ranges out to 2.6 miles (4.2km). In late-December 2016, Misratan forces displayed components of a SA-3 system at a parade celebrating the liberation of Sirte from extremist IS group militants. On a more concerning note, Misratan forces published a video of the refurbishment and live firing of a SA-6 conventional SAM system in late-August 2015.

Americas

Venezuela

The Western States of the country constitute an emerging overflight risk area due to the presence of Venezuelan military forces which have shown a capability and intent to use conventional SAM systems and fighter jets to target in-flight civilian aircraft suspected of involvement in narcotics trafficking. Since 2013, Venezuelan military fighter jets have shot down at least 20 such aircraft in total over the states of Apure, Tachira, Merida, Barinas, Zulia and Amazonas. Most recently a Venezuelan military fighter jet shot down a civilian aircraft suspected of involvement in narcotics trafficking near Lake Maracaibo in Zulia State on 22 April 2017. In addition, the Venezuelan military destroyed civilian aircraft suspected of being involved in narcotics trafficking while they were on the ground at airstrips in Zulia State on 7 April 2017 and 20 February 2017.

Asia

North Korea

North Korean airspace is a persistent overflight risk area for flights at all altitudes due to its history of unannounced tests of SSM systems without providing proper prior notification to civil aviation entities. North Korea has conducted ten unannounced SSM launches during 2017 with the most recent launch attempt occurring on 28 Nov 2017. In the most concerning incident, the South Korean government reported that a commercial airliner carrying over 200 civilian passengers narrowly missed being hit by a North Korean SSM after it flew into the trajectory of the missile over the Sea of Japan on 6 March 2014.

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Conclusion

Risk-based decision-making is vital to ensuring the safety and security of flights over or near conflict zones and within environments where civil aviation faces significant operational constraints. Along with the nine risk areas outlined above, our analysis has identified 34 additional risk areas where the kinetic threat to flight operations is concentrated below FL260 or where civil aviation activities face significant operational constraints. For example, while the conflict zone environments in Iraq, Afghanistan and Somalia create complex issues within the airspace over each country, the kinetic threat to civil aviation is primarily present at altitudes below FL260. In the context of aviation security, there remains a need to perform intelligence analysis of the advanced weaponry capabilities of state and non-state actors globally to derive a realistic picture of the current threat environment throughout the world.

Osprey Flight Solutions

Osprey Flight Solutions has developed a proprietary airspace risk assessment methodology that evaluates a combination of 20 aviation security, operational and safety criteria via qualitative and quantitative measures. The Osprey Flight Solutions proprietary airspace risk assessment methodology takes into account a range of technical criteria to holistically analyse threats to aviation at specific altitude intervals. The airspace risk assessment methodology coupled with Osprey Flight Risk Management software provides consistent and unbiased analysis of all airspace globally with the primary output being the identification of specific areas where a defined kinetic risk to civil aviation is present. The Osprey Flight Risk Management software and proprietary airspace risk assessment methodology coupled with the expertise of our aviation security team provide civilian flight operators accurate, timely and consistent analysis to meet the challenges of a dynamic global airspace environment.

Osprey say its airspace risk alert database,culled from 200,000 sources in 60 language integrates directly with a growing number of flight planning software.

VENEZUELAN MILITARY FORCES ... HAVE SHOWN A CAPABILITY AND INTENT TO USE CONVENTIONAL SAM SYSTEMS AND FIGHTER JETS TO TARGET IN-FLIGHT CIVILIAN AIRCRAFT SUSPECTED OF INVOLVEMENT IN NARCOTICS TRAFFICKING