FOCUSECONOMICS CORONAVIRUS WEEKLY UPDATE...CORONAVIRUS WEEKLY UPDATE A 63$ 1 PUBLICATION DATE 6 May...
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© FocusEconomics 2020 ISSN 2013-4975 FOCUSECONOMICS CORONAVIRUS WEEKLY UPDATE 6 MAY SPAIN PUBLICATION DATE 6 May 2020 FORECASTS COLLECTED 4 May–5 May 2020 for the global survey, 29 April–4 May for country reports INFORMATION AVAILABLE Up to and including 5 May 2020 NEXT EDITION 13 May 2020 Contributors ARNE POHLMAN Chief Economist RICARD TORNÉ Head of Data Analysis THOMAS FENGE Head of Data Solutions ANGELA BOUZANIS Lead Economist WILLIAM O’CONNELL Editor JOSÉ DANIEL MARÍN Data Scientist NICOLAS J. AGUILAR Economist HANNA ANDERSSON Economist MASSIMO BASSETTI Economist STEVEN BURKE Economist JAVIER COLATO Economist OLGA COSCODAN Economist EDWARD GARDNER Economist LINDSEY ICE Economist JAN LAMMERSEN Economist OLIVER REYNOLDS Economist ALMANAS STANAPEDIS Economist STEPHEN VOGADO Economist FREDERICO T. ABREU Junior Data Analyst JOAN ARGILAGÓS Data Analyst LAURA AZLOR Junior Data Analyst DAVID CATALÁN Junior Data Analyst MOHAMMED ESSABAOUNI Junior Data Analyst STÉPHANIE HOBEICHE Junior Data Analyst MAR LOBATO Junior Data Analyst YULIANNA VALENCIA Junior Data Analyst SARA VALVERDE Junior Data Analyst BENCE VÁRADI Junior Data Scientist
Transcript of FOCUSECONOMICS CORONAVIRUS WEEKLY UPDATE...CORONAVIRUS WEEKLY UPDATE A 63$ 1 PUBLICATION DATE 6 May...
© FocusEconomics 2020ISSN 2013-4975
FOCUSECONOMICS CORONAVIRUS WEEKLY UPDATE6 M A YS P A I N
PUBLICATION DATE 6 May 2020FORECASTS COLLECTED 4 May–5 May 2020 for the global survey, 29 April–4 May for country reportsINFORMATION AVAILABLE Up to and including 5 May 2020NEXT EDITION 13 May 2020
ContributorsARNE POHLMAN Chief Economist
RICARD TORNÉ Head of Data Analysis
THOMAS FENGE Head of Data Solutions
ANGELA BOUZANIS Lead Economist
WILLIAM O’CONNELLEditor
JOSÉ DANIEL MARÍN Data Scientist
NICOLAS J. AGUILAR EconomistHANNA ANDERSSON EconomistMASSIMO BASSETTI Economist STEVEN BURKE EconomistJAVIER COLATO EconomistOLGA COSCODAN Economist
EDWARD GARDNER EconomistLINDSEY ICE Economist
JAN LAMMERSEN Economist
OLIVER REYNOLDS EconomistALMANAS STANAPEDIS EconomistSTEPHEN VOGADO Economist
FREDERICO T. ABREU Junior Data AnalystJOAN ARGILAGÓS Data AnalystLAURA AZLOR Junior Data Analyst DAVID CATALÁN Junior Data AnalystMOHAMMED ESSABAOUNI Junior Data AnalystSTÉPHANIE HOBEICHE Junior Data AnalystMAR LOBATO Junior Data AnalystYULIANNA VALENCIA Junior Data AnalystSARA VALVERDE Junior Data AnalystBENCE VÁRADI Junior Data Scientist
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SpainPreliminary data showed the economy suffered its worst downturn in history in Q1—shrinking 5.2%—as the pandemic ravaged domestic and external demand amid a marked increase in unemployment.
Our panelists predict that worse is yet to come, with a severe contraction projected in Q2. Growth should return in Q3 as lockdown measures ease, although a ballooning fiscal deficit and public debt cloud the outlook.
Key information OutlookPublic health measures: Lockdown conditions are being loos-ened, with some workers in non-essential industries back at work and shops beginning to reopen. A four-phase plan to bring the economy to a “new normal” by the end of June is underway.
Stimulus measures: A EUR 200 billion stimulus plan—with slightly over half from public funds—including credit guarantees, reduced tax contributions and a mortgage moratorium.
Panelist breakdown
150,000
175,000
200,000
225,000
250,000
275,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
21 Apr 23 Apr 25 Apr 27 Apr 29 Apr 1 May 3 May 5 May
Daily cases (left scale)
Accumulated cases (right scale)
-18
-9
0
9
18
-14
-7
0
7
14
Q1 19 Q3 19 Q1 20 Q3 20 Q1 21 Q3 21
Quarter-on-quarter s.a. (leftscale)
Accumulated and daily cases Quarterly forecasts
Economic Growth (GDP, qoq s.a. var. %)Individual Forecasts Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021Axesor - -5.7 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.0 1.0CEPREDE - -8.8 4.0 4.5 1.6 0.3 0.4 0.6DZ Bank - -10.3 -0.7 4.9 2.5 0.7 0.6 0.5EIU - -11.0 4.5 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.0 2.0Euromonitor Int. - -5.0 -0.7 1.1 3.0 1.9 1.5 0.9Fitch Ratings - -8.0 1.9 2.7 - - - -FUNCAS - -15.9 18.7 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4HSBC - -10.5 5.2 4.2 1.9 1.7 - -Ifo Institut - -16.4 10.9 4.4 4.2 4.0 2.0 0.3JPMorgan - -13.9 11.6 2.2 1.2 - - -Julius Baer - -11.0 5.5 2.0 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.5La Caixa - -9.9 5.1 3.1 2.3 1.9 1.3 0.4Moody's Analytics - -15.8 18.3 0.4 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7Oxford Economics - -10.0 6.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8Société Générale - -15.8 23.8 2.2 -0.2 - - -Swedbank - -7.5 3.0 4.0 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.5UBS - -11.4 6.5 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.0UniCredit - -22.0 8.0 10.0 3.0 1.5 0.5 0.5Zürcher Kantonalbank - -10.6 4.0 2.2 1.6 1.1 0.9 0.6SummaryMinimum - -22.0 -0.7 0.3 -0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3Maximum - -5.0 23.8 10.0 4.2 4.0 3.0 2.0Median - -10.6 5.2 2.2 1.5 1.3 1.0 0.6Consensus -5.2 -11.6 7.2 2.8 1.7 1.4 1.1 0.7Consensus for GDP, ann. var. % -4.1 -12.7 -8.0 -6.1 -1.6 11.5 6.4 5.1
Note: Panelist breakdown is continued on the following page due to space constraints.
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Economic Growth (GDP, qoq s.a. var. %)Individual Forecasts Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021Axesor - -5.7 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.0 1.0CEPREDE - -8.8 4.0 4.5 1.6 0.3 0.4 0.6DZ Bank - -10.3 -0.7 4.9 2.5 0.7 0.6 0.5EIU - -11.0 4.5 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.0 2.0Euromonitor Int. - -5.0 -0.7 1.1 3.0 1.9 1.5 0.9Fitch Ratings - -8.0 1.9 2.7 - - - -FUNCAS - -15.9 18.7 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4HSBC - -10.5 5.2 4.2 1.9 1.7 - -Ifo Institut - -16.4 10.9 4.4 4.2 4.0 2.0 0.3JPMorgan - -13.9 11.6 2.2 1.2 - - -Julius Baer - -11.0 5.5 2.0 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.5La Caixa - -9.9 5.1 3.1 2.3 1.9 1.3 0.4Moody's Analytics - -15.8 18.3 0.4 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7Oxford Economics - -10.0 6.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8Société Générale - -15.8 23.8 2.2 -0.2 - - -Swedbank - -7.5 3.0 4.0 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.5UBS - -11.4 6.5 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.0UniCredit - -22.0 8.0 10.0 3.0 1.5 0.5 0.5Zürcher Kantonalbank - -10.6 4.0 2.2 1.6 1.1 0.9 0.6SummaryMinimum - -22.0 -0.7 0.3 -0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3Maximum - -5.0 23.8 10.0 4.2 4.0 3.0 2.0Median - -10.6 5.2 2.2 1.5 1.3 1.0 0.6Consensus -5.2 -11.6 7.2 2.8 1.7 1.4 1.1 0.7Consensus for GDP, ann. var. % -4.1 -12.7 -8.0 -6.1 -1.6 11.5 6.4 5.1
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