Focus 2011 Opening Remarks 01/28/2011 Page-1 UNCLASSIFIED Welcome to Focus 2011 8 February 2011 CAPT...

Focus 2011 Opening Remarks01/28/2011 Page-1 UNCLASSIFIED

Welcome to Focus 2011

8 February 2011

CAPT Dylan Schmorrow

Focus2011 Opening Remarks02/08/2011 Page-2 UNCLASSIFIED

Overview

• Why are we here? – The Need– The Vision

• How do we get there?– The challenge space– Rigor versus intuition– Modeling and simulation

• The HSCB Program– Vision and themes– Phases I and II– How success is gauged – Engagement and coordination– Highlights of our work– Where we are going

• Where you come in


Why are we here?


The center of gravity is usually the indigenous population

Understanding the social & cultural terrain is key

Often, irregular state forces or non-state networks embedded within civilian population

Understanding the physical terrain is key

Regular forces of nation states that are separate and distinct from the civilian population

Focus on the kinetic destruction of the adversaries warfighting material from stand-off distances

Conventional Warfare Irregular Warfare

Focus on non-kinetic influence of local and regional populations requiring face-to-face interaction

The center of gravity is often the adversary’s military forces and political leadership

The Operating Environment


Quadrennial Defense Review


QDR Technology Area Study –Building Security Capacity of Partner States (BSC)

• Whole-of-Government activities that directly support the development of the capacity and capability of foreign security forces and their sustaining institutions.

• HSCB-sponsored technologies support most of the top 10 enabling technologies for BSC:

1. Immersive and Mixed Reality Simulations

2. Information Sharing

3. Human Socio-cultural Multi-scale, Hybrid, and Federated Modeling

4. Adaptive Planning & Assessment Tools

5. HSC Knowledge Management Enterprise

6. Human Language Technology

7. Social Networking Tools and Methods

8. Geo-spatial Information and Services

9. Knowledge Visualization

10. Interactive Language Training Tools


Long-Term Vision

• Soldier as cultural chameleon, • Actionable estimation of 2nd and 3rd order effects

across the PMESII spectrum • Reliable forecasting of regional

stability on a short time scale• Routine exploitation of social media for

intelligence, understanding and engagement, training, info sharing and collaboration

• Ability to track and shape viral communicationacross distributed dynamic social networks

• Data, technologies, and methods support a timely, relevant Data to Decisions process

• High fidelity “social radar”


How do we realize the vision?


INVEST WHERE WE MUST…

LEVERAGE EVERYTHING ELSE

Understand the Landscape

Changing World

Dynamic Threat Space

DoD Capabilities

DoD Industrial Base

DoD Core Technologies

Federally-

funded

DoD-funded

Industry

IR&

D

International

Com

mer

cial

Evolving Technology


Strategic Imperatives

• Accelerate delivery of technical capabilities to win the current fight

• Prepare for an uncertain future • Reduce the cost, acquisition time and risk

of our major defense acquisition program • Develop world class science, technology,

engineering, and mathematics capabilities for the DoD and the Nation


Being Rigorous

• Military processes and tasks in most domains are reflected in doctrine based workflows with associated tools

• Issue: Opinions in political/socio-cultural domains are easily challenged by informed personnel and senior decision makers

• Solution: Socio-cultural analysis must incorporate a environment that allows users to defend, explain, and bound conclusions and recommendations and point to the rigor that allowed their formulation.

• The environment must be: – Warfighter responsive

– Focused on doctrine/process

– Driven by evidence

– Grounded in scientifically defensible data and theory

– Model-rich


Modeling/Simulation Need2

00

8 N

atio

na

l Re

sea

rch

Co

un

cil r

ep

ort

DoD Strategic Planning Guidance FY2008-2013 Study recommended: Increased FY08-13 S&T investment for HSCB capabilities New BA4 investment to support product maturation and transition

Research, Science communities have identified highest priorities:

• Theory Development

• Modeling Uncertainty

• Data Collection Methods

• Federated Models

• Model Validation

• Tools and Infrastructure

20

09

De

fen

se S

cie

nce

Bo

ard

re

po

rt

• Automated assessment of attitudes, networks, & strategic communication

• Automated detection of sentiment, bias, intention, deception

• Prediction of adversary reactions• Gaming for virtual training and

mission rehearsal• Federated databases to inform

dynamic network models• Open architecture platforms for

interoperability


“But these models can’t predict…”

• The models of social science still are our best synthesis but …– They are incomplete – The translation of “raw” socio-cultural data from the real world into model

parameters is unavoidably imprecise– The translation of model results back to real-world implications is also

imprecise.

• Unlike definitive physical models, deeply uncertain models cannot be used for making point predictions

We can use these models to explore and understandOperational usage of these systems will entail a shift from seeking optimal decisions to seeking robust decisions – developing options

that work across the broadest swath of plausible futures


This is Hard

• Human behavior is inherently difficult to understand• Empirical studies are difficult to conduct• Requires multidisciplinary approaches across

multiple domains • Enduring technical challenges of computational

modeling – Data– Hybrid modeling– Transparency– V&V

Figure Source: Behavioral Modeling and Simulation, page 56.


Scientifically Valid Solutions for End-Users

• COCOMs, HTTs, and other users have clearly stated needs for socio-cultural awareness capabilities

• Need to run fast, do good systems engineering, and integrate technologies into needed capabilities

• COCOMs need 80% solution now

• Push for sustainment but in some cases capabilities might just be a one off and not go into a POR

• Important to focus on operational priorities, leveraging academia and industry, but

• Also important to be rigorous, with a solid foundation in scientifically valid basic and applied research (e.g. Minerva)

Innovation, speed, and agility


Signs of Progress

Core sociocultural capability

Data and tools transference

Data and collection methods

Models scope and scale

Model integration across levels

Gap at individual soldier level

Governance of sociocultural R&D

2006• Technical socio-cultural behavior

capability drawn from academia, labs, industry

• No investment in resources to port or extend relevant data, knowledge and tools

• No data and collection methods to support understanding, models, tool development

• Models not broad enough to cover full range of military operations, nor detailed enough to forecast behaviors at scale

• Limited capacity to support integrated modeling of strategic/operational/tactical planning and operations

• No general use S&T to achieve the ‘language agile cultural chameleon’ soldier

• Sociocultural behavior R&D highly distributed with limited coordination and few DoD-wide solutions

Now• OSD, Army TRAC, AF, Special Op,

AFRICOM, EUCOM and others have programs

• Increased DoD investments in data collection, storage, and transference

• Data collection tools and methods emerging along with models and tools

• Strong progress being made in hybrid modeling and integration of model output

• Requirement for integrated modeling not often articulated, but progress on numerous fronts

• Progress being made, but general use S&T solution for individual soldier remains long term

• Increasingly coordinated governance through major programs (HSCB, Minerva, SMA)


The OSD Human Social Culture Behavior Modeling Program


Program Overview

• Lead DoD innovation in development, application, and transition of social cultural methods, models, and tools to meet operational needs

• Integrated portfolio of R&D– Understanding sociocultural dynamics of human behavior– Building computational behavior models– Improving data collection and management– Defining HSCB competencies and training methods– Developing tools for analysis and visualization

• Themes– Tackle hard problems with great research in theory building and

modeling– Ensure rigor through assessment and concrete metrics– Transition to POR and warfighters in need– Provide technology leadership across department– Promote coordination and collaboration


• What factors influence religious extremism and support for secular politics, gender equality, and national identity?

• How are decisions made in illicit cross-border supply chains?

• What narratives drive extremist behavior, and how can we better detect and track their use?

• How to leverage data mining to better predict insurgent activities?

• How to find and analyze mission-relevant sentiment in multiple languages?

• Can online gaming be used to study behavioral models?

• How can analytic systems visualize sociocultural factors and the attendant uncertainty?

• How do information and arguments propagate?

A Sample of the Hard Problems Being Addressed


OSD HSCB Program Objectives

Applied

Research

Advanced

Technology

Development

Component

Development,

Prototypes

Improve strategies and methods for valid collection of socio-cultural data, especially in denied or difficult to penetrate areas.

Generate functional architectures for managing and disseminating data, information and analysis products.

Demonstrate and prototype first generation system that operations analysts can use to rapidly map new data and optimize decision support models to that data

Develop common categorization of meta-information, and methods for depicting cultural information to support manual or automated analysis

Deliver visualization toolsets and integrate a common architecture visualization tool to enhance situational awareness and support decision making

Mature and deliver software that will visually and digitally represent cultural factors within existing systems

Develop and validate theoretical constructions, generate knowledge products, and develop generalizeable, quantitative models of socio-cultural factors

Develop and demonstrate tools and software to integrate models and information into existing systems

Mature and deliver socio-cultural modeling capabilities within existing DoD systems

Identify cross-cultural competencies across mission areas and personnel needs, and methods for flexible training of socio-cultural knowledge, skills, and abilities at tactical and operational levels

Integrate and demonstrate training of cross-cultural competencies into existing training systems

Prototype cultural training tools and systems.

Modeling

Visualization

Training

Data


-

Analytics and ModelingAnalytics and Modeling

HSCB Portfolio

Modeling Strategic Contexts (6.2)

Cultural Behavioral Model Docking

(6.2)

Social and Cultural Model Embedding Technologies

(6.2)

Rhetoric-Based Modeling of Insurgent Groups

(6.2 )

Simulation of Afghanistan Opium Economic Systems

(6.2)

Cultural Influences on Intertemporal Reasoning

(6.2)

Understanding RSM: Relief Social Media

(6.2)

Extremist Ideological Influences on Terrorist Decision Making (6.2)

Modeling Outcomes of Coordinated USG and NGO

Efforts (6.2)

Identifying and Countering Terrorist Narratives

(6.2)

Architecture to Support Socio-Cultural Modeling

(6.2)

Breadth-Depth Triangulation for V&V

(6.3)

Ethnic Conflict, Repression, Insurgency and Social Strife

Model (ERIS) (6.3)

Model Evaluation, Selection, and Application (MESA)

(6.3)

Turning Text into Behavioral Processes and Public Support

(6.3)

Automatic Bias Detection and Ranking

(6.3)

US European Command(6.3)

US Africa Command(6.3)

US Pacific Command(6.3)

US Agency for International Development

(6.3)

Social Network Analysis Reach back Capability

(6.3)

Tactical Irregular Warfare (IW) Analytic Capabilities

(6.3)

Automated Discovery of Insurgent Behavior

(6.3)

Modeling Information Propagation for more Effective

Influence Operations (6.3)

Analytical Tools for Local Economic Analysis

(OSD SBIR)

Dynamic Meta-Network Measures

(OSD SBIR)

Automated Network Construction(OSD SBIR)

HSCB Modeling Decision Support Framework (PRISM)

(6.4)

US Special Operations Command

(6.3)

Neuromorphic Models of HumanSocial Cultural Behavior (HSCB)

(OSD SBIR)

A Cultural Architecture Generator for Immersion Training in Virtual

Environments (OSD SBIR)

Algorithmic Behavior Forecasting(OSD SBIR)

OSD HSCB OSD Phase IISBIROSD Phase I SBIR

Data GenerationData Generation

Competitive Adaptation in Terror Networks

(6.2)

Cross-National Analysis of Islamic Fundamentalism

(6.2)

Hybrid Knowledge Framework for Complex Operations

(6.3)

Mining Afghan Lessons From The Soviet Era

(6.2)

Unifying Social Frameworks (6.2)

HSCB Mobile Support to HA/DR Operations

(6.3)

In Situ Collection of Human Social Cultural Behavioral Data

(OSD SBIR)

VisualizationVisualization

Visualization Methods and Tools for HSCB Models

(OSD SBIR)

Enhanced HSCB Visualization and Operational Decision

Support (6.3)

HSCB Modeling Visualization Framework

(6.4)

Training & Education

HSCB Training, Strategic Direction and Requirement

Development (6.2)

Commonsense Socio-Cultural Models for Training

(6.3)

Enhancing Warfighter Cross-Cultural Awareness

(6.3)

Development and Assessment Methods for Cultural Capabilities

(6.2)

Cultural Awareness forMilitary Operations

(OSD SBIR)

Game-based Simulation for Human, Social, Culture

Behavioral Training (OSD SBIR)

Identifying Dynamic Environments for Cultural Competencies

(InDECCs) (6.2)

Task-Based Communications Training System

(6.3)

Using Serious Games for Socio-Cultural Scenario Training

(OSD SBIR)


HSCB Related SBIR Topic AreasNew Starts

• OSD10-HS1: Decision Superiority through Enhanced Cultural Intelligence Forecasting

• OSD10-HS2: In Situ Collection of Human Social Cultural Behavioral Data

• OSD10-HS3: Neuromorphic Models of HumanSocial Cultural Behavior (HSCB)

• OSD10-HS4: Dynamic Meta-Network Measures• OSD10-HS5: Visualization Methods and Tools for Human,

Social, Cultural, and Behavioral Models• OSD10-HS6: Automated Network Construction• OSD10-HS7: Analytical Tools for Local Economic Analysis• OSD10-HS8: An Adaptive Cultural Trainer for Development

of Cultural Aptitude in Warfighters• OSD10-HS9: Developing and Modeling Social Networks

inside Technology Poor Societies


Program Milestones

• Established wide-ranging portfolio of projects spanning 6.2 to 6.4 RDT&E levels with awardees from industry, academia, and government

• Developed partnerships with Programs of Record • Engaged with Combatant Commands (COCOMs) and other

operational users • Organized three

national conferences with diverse research and operational communities

• Provided operational support and tools transition for nearly all COCOMs


Disciplines of HSCB Principal Investigators

• 56% of Principal Investigators have Social and Behavioral Science degree(s)

• 30% have computer science or modeling/simulation background


How do we gauge success?


The Impact of Good Modeling

• Enhance situation awareness (SA)– Perceive (monitor, model, visualize) more socio-cultural factors– More accurately comprehend the meaning of a situation (because socio-

cultural factors are accounted for) – Project a broader range of futures, providing more realistic account of

HSCB problems and scenarios

• Enhance option awareness (OA)– Perceive more completely and with greater accuracy how available options

for action perform across the landscape of plausible futures– For each of the available options, better anticipate and distinguish which

socio-cultural factors will lead to desired outcomes and which to undesired outcomes

– Increase ability to use these factors to create options, branches, and sequels that improve performance across the landscape of plausible futures

Models will explore SA/OA uncertainty, visualization will reveal distinctions, data will feed a wide range of models, and

training will achieve agility


HSCB Program Metrics and Assessment Processes

Processes in place to independently verify and validate ongoing efforts based on project specific criteria

• Technical and Programmatic Reviews by PM at Project and Portfolio Levels

• Technical Performance Evaluation Events

• Transition Demonstration Events

• Wargames and Experimentation Events


HSCB Technologies are in Use

• While the domain has limited clear requirements, numerous operational entities have begun use of relevant technologies– USSOCOM – MISO and other– USCENTCOM – AFPAK COE and Human Terrain Analysis Team– AFRICOM – Serengeti– USSTRATCOM JIOWC– US Army TRADOC– OSD CAPE– ISAF– USPACOM– USJFCOM– USEUCOM– JIEDDO


Transition Success Stories

• Transition of HSCB data ingestion and modeling capabilities to US Special Operations Command

• Transitioning HSCB behavioral modeling capabilities to United States Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC) Analysis Center (TRAC) to support their cultural geography model and wargame

• Transitioned geospatial and social network analysis HSCB capabilities to US Special Operations Command, Pacific

• Prototyped use of automated techniques to rapidly extract persons, events, and sentiments in support of USAFRICOM

• Supporting ISAF Joint Command Headquarters in Kabul, Afghanistan.


Engagement and Leadership


International(TTCP, NATO, Smart

Power…)

Interagency(State, DHS, Intel)

Operation(COCOMs, Services)

DoD RDT&E

NE

AR

TE

RM

LO

NG

TE

RM

COLLABORATE ENGAGE COORDINATE INFORM

HSCB

AFRLONR

DARPA

USMC

Minerva

Socio-Cultural Behavior Domains and Relationships

ARI

TRADOC

USDI


User Engagement and Applied Science Leadership

• Working directly with COCOMs and other users• Cobra Gold Exercise Participation• Held first HSCB capabilities open

house• NSTC Subcommittee on Human

Factors for Homeland and National Security

• IW M&S SCG• Congressionally Mandated User Group

• Active at national conferences• HSCB national conferences

– Focus2010 had over 600 participants from USG, academia, and industry


Promoting Coordination and Collaboration

• OSD-Policy– Coordinating with Minerva Program

• Congressional Staff– Engaged with congressional staff to define requirements of HASC/SASC

requests

• ASD R&E Rapid Fielding Office– Coordinating with strategic communication and SMA activities in ASD R&E RFO

• DTRA– Assisted DTRA in development of HSCB relevant BAA

• Interagency (State, USAID, USG-C)– Conducting outreach to senior executives at DOS to determine requirements and

facilitate interagency cooperation

• International– Engaging with TTCP and NATO on metrics and tools to support comprehensive

approach to operations


Where we are Going


ONR BAA

• The Office of Naval Research just released a Broad Agency Announcement (BAA) requesting proposals for research sponsored through the HSCB Modeling Program.

• Topics:– Data collection and management– Multi-scale and hybrid modeling of

regional and subregional stability– Training methodologies– Analysis and modeling of non-kinetic

COA

• Expected outputs for all projects:– published research findings and data– Methodologies and Designs– training materials– analytic frameworks, Ontologies, and/or taxonomies

• Expected outputs of advanced technology projects (in addition to above)– prototype software

HSCB Domains


Thank you, and a Challenge


Backups


Social Network Analysis Reachback Capability (SNARC) for ISAF

SCHEDULE: (JUN 2010 – OCT 2011)JUN 2010: Project kickoff with 4 HSCB performers

OCT 2010: Proof of concept demonstrated to ISAF including response to Network Effect

Cell (the NEC) RFIsPeriodic meetings with ISAF to respond to

RFIsNOV 2010: As directed, engage with more HSCB performersStarting Deliver Techniques, Tactics, and ProceduresJAN 2011: (TTPs) for selected HSCB tools, models

OCT 2011: Train the NEC analysts on selected HSCB capabilities

Product: Applying computational models to answering ISAF information requests on 2-week cycles

TECHNICAL APPROACH:MITRE: Transition focused technical leadership for integration of HSCB research technologies in support of ISAFLANL: Assess opium trade-based corruption, and the population’s perception and support for opium traffickingMilcord: Bayesian influence model represents survey questions as nodes, computes relations among answersNU: Study to determine the robustness of one centrality measure as the network is randomized (errors introduced)UC Davis: Event analysis (IEDs) focused on key drivers (coalition activity) and relationship to socio-economic signaturesPERFORMERS: Los Alamos National Laboratory, MilcordNortheastern University, University of California-Davis

OBJECTIVE: Develop/integrate tools, models, processes, and skills necessary to implement and operate a social network reachback capability

HYPOTHESIS: Additional tools, models, processes, skills will assist ISAF in the Request for Information (RFI) process

MILITARY RELEVANCE/OPERATIONAL IMPACT: MITRE has been providing direct support to the ISAF since November 2009. Based on this work and interaction, the need for SNARC was identified in June 2010 to address the Network Effects Cell’s need to collect information on social networks for the District Development Program (DDP). The HSCB Modeling program performers have been tasked to support this sponsor, and explore technology transition

WikiDB


Phase III Plans

• Continue maturing Phase Two investments • Emphasize new 6.4 investments• Move technology developed at all levels of

investment into acquisition• Demonstrate an end-to-end

application of HSCB modeling to intelligence analysis, operations planning, operations analysis, and training

• Lead R&D coordination working closely with US Department of Defense partners

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BUILD CAPACITY

`US & Partner

Objectives

Socio-CulturalUnderstanding

SC DataCollection

HSCBModeling

&Forecasting

Analyze& Fuse

COAAnalysis

Measure Effects

PMESIIEffects PMESII

Effects

PMESIIEffects

PM

ESII E

ffec

ts

What is our view for the future?

NATIONAL & TACTICAL SYSTEMS

AWARENESS & DIMEDECISION MAKING

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Where You Come In


• Modeling Strategic Contexts - Support analysis of international conflicts by providing rich models of strategic context

• Variations in Islamic Fundamentalism - Understand factors influencing religious extremism and support for secular politics, gender equality, and national identity

• Simulation of Opium Supply Chain - Develop models of adaptive decision-making in illicit cross-border supply chains

• Socio-Cultural Modeling Architecture – Develop coherent, flexible, extensible data-to-model service oriented architecture for socio-cultural modeling and analysis

Highlighted Projects – Applied Research

• Identifying and Countering Terrorist Narratives - Develop models and decision making tools that allow rapid assessment of terrorist propaganda and development of effective counter-measures


• Automated Discovery and Prediction of Insurgent Behavior - Leverage data mining to provide commanders with capability to predict insurgent activities and behaviors

• Hybrid Knowledge Framework for Complex Operations - Semantic Answer Engine for the complex operations community to support modeling and simulation, training, and tactical decision-aid applications

• Turning Text into Behavioral Processes and Public Support - Develop a next-generation automated (1) political event and (2) sentiment coder

• Irregular Warfare Analytic Capabilities - Provide analytic methods, models, and tools suites to support examination of impacts on operational environment (specifically, population) by reachback analysis teams and deployed analyst cells.

Highlighted Projects – Advanced Technology Development

• Modeling Information Propagation - Aid influence operations by providing a model of information propagation that supports analysis of the effectiveness of arguments and media.


• Transition of Analytic Tools - Facilitate transition of fusion cell analytic tools by creating a “Help” system the incorporates best practices heuristics and visualizations.

• Skope Toolkit Enhancement - Enhance USSOCOM Skope’s Behavioral Modeling Toolkit, to develop additional modular, web-enabled, flexible tools focused on discovery and characterization of non-obvious relationships among people, places, things.

Highlighted Projects – Component Development and Prototypes

• APERTURE - Design, develop and implement an open source interactive visualization framework and API.


Program Phase II (FY10/11)

Significant increased emphasis on developing reusable models (10%)


Phase II Program Profile – Major Research Challenges


Phase I Program Profile - Awardees


Phase I Program Profile - Requirements


Phase I Program Profile – Research Challenge Areas


Phase II Program Profile – Awardees

Projects conducted by Small Businesses increased by 10%, projects conducted by Big Businesses decreased by 9%


Selected Phase II Technical Accomplishments

• Development of visualization tools and infrastructures that display hybrid data sources

• Development of a theory to support hybrid, generalizeable models which span the spectrum from tactical to operational to strategic.

• Development of technologies capable of leveraging extracted data (e.g. from surveys), processing the data, and validating it.

• Demonstration of distributed training technologies to speed the development of socio-cultural skills of coalitions in current military operations.


Context: DoD Representative Communities

Data & Theory Building

Model & Software Development

Model Building Resources & V&V

Integration & Systems Development

Training & Mission Rehearsal

Operational Use & Transition

Socio-Cultural Modeling of Effective Influence (AFRL)

Cascading Effects Modeling (AFRL)

Collective Behavior and Socio-Cultural Modeling (AFRL)

Predicting Adversary Behavior (AFRL)

HSCB Basic and Applied Research (ARI)

Effects Measurement and Geospatial Services (USACE)

Marine Corps Intelligence Activity (USMC)

Program Manager Training Systems (USMC)

Affordable Human Behavior Modeling (ONR)

ONR HSCB Science (ONR)

Human Social Culture Behavior Modeling (DDR&E)

Joint Capability Technology Demonstration (DDR&E)

Strategic Multilayer Analysis (DDR&E)

Minerva Research Initiative (OSD)

Social Science Research & Analysis (USDI)

Multidisciplinary University Research Initiative (OSD)

Integrated Crisis Early Warning System (DARPA)

Applications of Social Computing (DARPA)

Strategic Communication Assessment & Analysis (DARPA)

Conflict Modeling, Planning & Outcomes Experimentation (DARPA)

Socio-Cultural Dynamics Initiative (DIA)

Behavioral/Social Sciences Research Program (DIA)

Social-Science Research for Anticipation & Reduction of WMD (DTRA)

ATHENA (TRISA)

Human Terrain System (TRADOC)

Social Dynamics Awareness (JIEDDO)

Socio-Cultural Behavior R&D (COCOMs)

Social/Behavioral Dimensions of Security, Conflict, Cooperation (NSF)

Socio-Cultural Content in Language (IARPA)

Reynard (IARPA)

AR

ME

D S

ER

VIC

ES

O

SD

OT

HE

R

OT

HE

R D

oD

AFRL: AIR FORCE RESEARCH LAB; ARI: ARMY RESEARCH INSTITUTE; COCOMS: US COMBATANT COMMANDS; DARPA: DEFENSE ADVANCED RESEARCH PROJECTS AGENCY; DIA: DEFENSE INTELLIGENCE AGENCY; DTRA: DEFENSE THREAT REDUCTION AGENCY; IARPA: INTELLIGENCE ADVANCE RESEARCH PROJECTS AGENCY; JIEDDO: JOINT IMPROVISED EXPLOSIVE DEVICES DEFEAT ORGANIZATION; NSF: NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION; ONR: OFFICE OF NAVAL RESEARCH; TRADOC: TRAINING AND DOCTRINE COMMAND; TRISA: TRADOC INTELLIGENCE SUPPORT ACTIVITY; USACE: ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS; USDI: UNDER SECRETARY OF DEFENSE FOR INTELLIGENCE


Human, Social, Cultural and Behavioral Sciences

Mastery of the social, cultural and cognitive factors that optimize the warfighter’s ability to influence human behavior across the full spectrum of military operations.

T&E STO-2: Learning OPFOR

Intel STO-5: Exposing hidden enemy networks, anticipating and influencing behavior

NECC BP/shape 8.2-4: Operational Data Collection

HSCB Portfolio Overview

Technology Investment Areas PROJECTS

Competitive Adaptation in Terror Networks

(6.2)

Cross-National Analysis of Islamic Fundamentalism

(6.2)

RECENT TRANSITIONS

Hybrid Knowledge Framework for Complex Operations

(6.3)

Data GenerationData Generation

Hybrid Knowledge Framework for Complex Operations (E&D)

(OSD)

ISAF Support

ISAF Support: COIN Training Center

Mining Afghan Lessons From The Soviet Era

(6.2)

Mining Afghan Lessons from the Soviet Era

MANAGER

TEAM

OSD ASD R&E

Dr. Ivy EstabrookeDeputy PM/Technical Execution AgentONR

Mr. Dhiren KhonaTechnical Execution AgentAGC

Shana YakobiTechnical Execution AgentCTTSO

CAPT Dylan [email protected]

OSD HSCB

OSD Phase IISBIR

OSD Phase I SBIR

Unifying Social Frameworks (6.2)

HSCB Mobile Support to HA/DR Operations

(6.3)

In Situ Collection of Human Social Cultural Behavioral Data

(OSD SBIR)



-

.

.



T&E STO-2: Learning OPFOR.

Intel STO-5: Exposing hidden enemy networks, anticipating and influencing behavior

NECC BA/ISR 2.1-14: Expose Enemy Networks, and Anticipate or Influence Their Behavior

NECC BP/Shape 8.2-1: Civil Information Management for Civil Military Operations

NECC BP/Shape 8.2-2: Cultural and Language Proficiency Tools

NECC BP/Shape 8.2-3: Influence and Effects Measurement Tools

NIWO: Advanced Predictive Tools for Battlefield Effects

NIWO: Exposing Hidden Enemy Networks, Anticipating and Influencing Behaviors

NIWO: Operationally Adaptive

OPFORIntel STO-5: Exposing hidden enemy networks, anticipating and influencing behavior


Technology Investment Areas

PROJECTS

Modeling Strategic Contexts (6.2)

Cultural Behavioral Model Docking

(6.2)

Social and Cultural Model Embedding Technologies

(6.2)


(6.2 )

RECENT TRANSITIONS


(6.2)


(D&I) (OSD)

ISAF Support


(OSD) (D&I)

JFCOM

Modeling Strategic Contexts (OSD) (D&I)

EUCOM Social Science Research and Analysis (SSRA)

MANAGER

TEAM

OSD ASD R&E





OSD HSCB

OSD Phase IISBIR

OSD Phase I SBIR

Cultural Influences on Intertemporal Reasoning

(6.2)

Understanding RSM: Relief Social Media

(6.2)

Extremist Ideological Influences on Terrorist Decision Making

(6.2)


Efforts (6.2)

Identifying and Countering Terrorist Narratives

(6.2)

Architecture to Support Socio-Cultural Modeling

(6.2)


Efforts (D&I) (OSD)

TRAC Irregular Warfare Wargame

Breadth-Depth Triangulation for V&V (6.3)

Ethnic Conflict, Repression, Insurgency and Social Strife

Model (ERIS) (6.3)

Model Evaluation, Selection, and Application (MESA)

(6.3)

Turning Text into Behavioral Processes and Public Support

(6.3)

Automatic Bias Detection and Ranking

(6.3)



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PROJECTS

RECENT TRANSITIONS

Analytical Tools for Local Economic Analysis

(OSD SBIR)

Dynamic Meta-Network Measures

(OSD SBIR)

Automated Network Construction(OSD SBIR)

T&E STO-2: Learning OPFOR

NECC BP/Shape 8.203: Influence and Effects Measurement Tools

USA ASTMP: Network Science Research will provide an understanding of networks much more broadly and deeply, including human social networks

USA ASTMP: Human Dimension – The Army leverages enhanced means to identify, access, retain, and develop Soldiers with unsurpassed cognitive, physical, and social (moral and cultural) capabilities.

USA ASTMP: Soldiers are enabled by technology, cognitive, medical, and social sciences to achieve excellence in small unit competence and to dominate increasingly complex operational environments.

USA ASTMP: Soldiers are able to leverage technologies and processes that optimize and restore cognitive and physical performance.

MANAGER

TEAM

OSD ASD R&E





OSD HSCB

OSD Phase IISBIR

OSD Phase I SBIR

HSCB Modeling Decision Support Framework (PRISM)

(6.4)

US European Command(6.3)

US Africa Command(6.3)

US Pacific Command(6.3)

US Special Operations Command

(6.3)

US Agency for International Development

(6.3)

Social Network Analysis Reach back Capability

(6.3)

Tactical Irregular Warfare (IW) Analytic Capabilities

(6.3)

Automated Discovery of Insurgent Behavior

(6.3)

Automated Discovery of Insurgent Behavior (OSD) (D&I)

ISAF Support

Neuromorphic Models of HumanSocial Cultural Behavior (HSCB)

(OSD SBIR)

A Cultural Architecture Generator for Immersion Training in Virtual

Environments (OSD SBIR)

Algorithmic Behavior Forecasting(OSD SBIR)

Modeling Information Propagation for more Effective Influence

Operations (6.3)



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VisualizationVisualization



PROJECTS

RECENT TRANSITIONSMANAGER

TEAM

OSD ASD R&E





OSD HSCB

OSD Phase IISBIR

OSD Phase I SBIR

Visualization Methods and Tools for HSCB Models

(OSD SBIR)


Support (6.3)

HSCB Modeling Visualization Framework

(6.4)


Support (D&I) (OSD)

Collaborative Security JCTD (USAID); ISAF



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.

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Socio-Cultural Training & Education

T&E STO-6: High Fidelity Virtual Environment.

T&E STO-7: Automated Performance Assessment

NIWO: Enhanced Cultural and Human Terrain Capabilities

ATO-D: Learning With Adaptive Simulation and Training

USA ASTMP: Soldiers and leaders require the ability to excel in a challenging and increasingly complex future operating environment USA ASTMP: Future training and leader development must be completely adaptable and scalable to cover the full spectrum of operational challenges facing the Soldier



PROJECTS

HSCB Training, Strategic Direction and Requirement

Development (6.2)

Commonsense Socio-Cultural Models for Training

(6.3)

Enhancing Warfighter Cross-Cultural Awareness

(6.3)

RECENT TRANSITIONS

Development and Assessment Methods for Cultural Capabilities

(6.2)

OSD HSCB

OSD Phase I SBIR

OSD Phase IISBIR

Cultural Awareness forMilitary Operations

(OSD SBIR)

Game-based Simulation for Human, Social, Culture

Behavioral Training (OSD SBIR)

MANAGER

TEAM

OSD ASD R&E





Identifying Dynamic Environments for Cultural Competencies

(InDECCs) (6.2)

Task-Based Communications Training System

(6.3)

Using Serious Games for Socio-Cultural Scenario Training

(OSD SBIR)


Project Transitions

Projects Transition Targets Transition StatusPlug and Play Cultural Avatars for Training & Mission Rehearsal – VCOM3D

US Army Special Operations Command (USASOC)/J.F. Kennedy Special Warfare Center and School (JFKSWCS)

Completed

Tyton/Canvas – SPADAC USSOCOM Skope Cell, International Security Assistance Force, DIA

Partially Complete

Simulation of Afghanistan Opium Economic Systems – Los Alamos National Lab

International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) Partially Complete

Mining Afghan Lessons from Soviet Era (MALSE) – Stanford (NPS)

International Security Assistance Force – COIN CT Training Center

Partially Complete

Social Network Analysis Work – Northeastern University

Collaborative Security JCTD (USAID); ISAF Partially Complete

TRADOC Analysis Center – TRAC TRAC Irregular Warfare Tactical Wargame Partially Complete

Automated Discovery and Explanation Of Adversarial Behavior – UC Davis

International Security Assistance Force, TRAC Irregular Warfare Tactical Wargame; AFRICOM; EUCOM

Partially Complete

Hybrid Knowledge Framework for Complex Operations – Milcord

Collaborative Security JCTD (USAID); ISAF; Milcord Partially Complete

Ethnic Conflict, Repression, Insurgency, and Social Strife (ERIS) – NSI

USSOCOM/PM Military Information Support Operations (MISO); Joint Military Information Support Command (JMISC); TRAC Irregular Warfare Tactical Wargame

Partially Complete

SAVANT-HSCB/MIMEO – Charles River Analytics

USSOCOM/PM Military Information Support Operations (MISO); Joint Military Information Support Command (JMISC); TRAC Irregular Warfare Tactical Wargame

Partially Complete


Project Transitions

Projects Transition Targets Transition Status

Rhetoric-Based Modeling of Insurgent Groups – University of Washington APL

JFCOM In Progress

Identifying and Countering Terrorist Narratives – Arizona State University

MCIOC POR; EUCOM In Progress

Enhanced HSCB Visualization and Operational Decision Support – SAE

Collaborative Security JCTD (USAID); ISAF In Progress

Modeling Outcomes of Coordinated USG and NGO Efforts – eCrossCulture

TRAC Irregular Warfare Tactical Wargame In Progress

Commonsense Socio-Cultural Models for Culture Training in Serious Games – Alelo

PMTRASYS, Operational Language and Culture Training System (OLACTS)

In Progress

Modeling Strategic Outcomes – University of Chicago

EUCOM Social Science Research and Analysis (SSRA)

Planning


Program Transitions

Goal Transition Target Transition Status

USSOCOM SKOPE Developed signature analysis and visualization toolkit

USSOCOM SKOPE Complete

Instantiation of “Senturion” influence models for PACOM/SOCPAC planning

USPACOM HQ Complete

Enhanced Web Monitoring System to allow manual annotation of sentiment and graphical depiction based on a user-defined template

SOCPAC Complete

Develop technologies necessary to enhance operation training US Army Special Operations Command

Complete

Develop a prototype modeling capability provides insight into mass migration flow, and provides potential shaping for courses of action related to those flows

AFRICOM In Progress

Develop models and procedures that yield geospatial trafficking insight that links activities to networks, and to time and physical space.

EUCOM In Progress

Assist in conducting the research and development necessary to implement a fully representative shura for a district and identify the religious leadership in each provincial & district government & their assessed influence

ISAF In Progress


Program Transitions

Goal Transition Target Transition Status

Support influence operations by developing innovative extensions to existing tools

USSOCOM PSYOP/MISO In Progress

Monitor the spread of violent extremism across specified AOR

USSOCOM Combating Violent Extremism

In Progress

Leverage innovations in data collection, mobile devices, and modeling to support participation in Joint Combined Exercise and Training in the PACOM AOR

USPACOM MEC In Progress

Integrate social cultural models into infrastructure model and assist in development of technologies to support strategic communication

Intelligence Community In Progress

Development of technologies to support audience analysis and engagement

Joint Forces Command In Progress

Engaging with USCENTCOM science advisor on USCENTCOM predictive analysis requirements

CENTCOM Planning

Assist in solving the “data problem”. Develop the capabilities necessary to process social cultural data robustly and accurately.

Human Terrain Systems Planning

Focus 2011 Opening Remarks 01/28/2011 Page-1 UNCLASSIFIED Welcome to Focus 2011 8 February 2011 CAPT...

Documents

Transcript of Focus 2011 Opening Remarks 01/28/2011 Page-1 UNCLASSIFIED Welcome to Focus 2011 8 February 2011 CAPT...