Flying on demand - Aerohabitat€¦ · 008 Global Market Forecast Global Market Forecast 009 ICAO...

Global Market Forecast

Flying ondemand2014 2033

Global M

arket Forecast 2014 2033

004Global Market ForecastGlobal Market Forecast003

2014, MARKED THE CENTENARY OF COMMERCIAL FLIGHT OPERATIONS, with the first scheduled flight taking off in January 1914. This airboat service carried passengers, one-by-one, between St Petersburg and Tampa in Florida. It took 23 minutes and cost five dollars one way, the equivalent of $116 in 2014 dollars. The same journey took two hours by boat, 4-12 hours by train or up to 20 hours by road. The economic benefits of air transport were clear. Thomas Benoist, the builder of the airboats, said, «Someday, people will be crossing oceans on airliners like they do on steamships today.» As a twenty-year forecast it was not far off the mark! Today, the global airline industry performs around 32 million commercial flights a year, transporting 3 billion passengers and 50 million tonnes of freight. Tampa International Airport handled 17 million passengers in 2013, an incredible evolution in the relatively short time since this first commercial air service. New, emerging markets continue to drive impressive growth, their airlines cutting journey times massively for millions of new travelers.

In the year that has passed since our last forecast, aviation has continued to deliver growth and prosperity both locally and globally. ATAG (the Air Transport Action Group) recently assessed the industry’s global economic impact at $2.4 trillion annually, providing employment for nearly 60 million people. Affordable air transport is not purely a consequence of economic growth but is one of its great enablers.

The benefits are also clear for millions of passengers flying every day, with aviation playing a key role in lives which are increasingly driven by a global society. In our forecast we take the very latest economic and market data and apply a forecasting methodology developed and refined over decades to give us an insight into future developments. We challenge our analysts to consider how factors such as demographics, trade and tourism flows, oil price, environmental issues and competition will define our future industry and in turn this helps us define our forecast.

We chose the title “Flying on Demand” for this year’s Global Market Forecast to reflect the fact that for an increasing number of people, flying is no longer a dream but an expectation. An expectation of the availability of air transport, an expectation of a satisfying passenger experience and an expectation of what constitutes value for money. New and evolving technologies continue to make travel simpler, from the booking process to the airport experience and of course, on the aircraft itself. In mature markets flying is now taken for granted, which is not the case for forecasters and planners helping to ensure that air transport can continue to fulfil its potential.

We hope that you find the 2014 Global Market Forecast informative and useful. We seek to improve our analyses continually, and your questions, challenges and suggestions help us in that aim. Don’t forget you can download our App in several formats from tablet to smartphone. It complements the forecast and includes more interactive information than ever before.

As usual this is best read on a long flight. Enjoy !

Introduction


05

06

07

P.053

P.083

P.89

Asia-Pacific P.054 Europe P.058

North America P.062 Middle East P.066

Latin America & Caribbean P.070 CIS P.074

Africa P.078

Demand by region

Demand for freighters

Summary& methodology

01 P.007

Executive summary

02 P.015

Demand for air travel

03 P.029

Traffic forecast

04 P.041

Demand forpassenger aircraft

Executivesummary

01

009Global Market Forecast Global Market Forecast008

ICAO total traf�c Airbus GMF 2014

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2008

2013

2018

2023

2028

2033

Air traf�c will doublein the next 15 years

Air traf�c has doubledevery 15 years

World annual RPK* (trillion)

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

* Revenue Passenger Kilometres

TRAFFIC WILL DOUBLE IN THE NEXT 15 YEARSSource: ICAO, Airbus GMF 2014

Passenger traffic growth next 20 years

4.7% CAGR*

Freight traffic growth 4.5% CAGR

Passenger fleet

201416,855

203334,818 +17,963

Passenger deliveries (>100 seats)

New freighters

Passenger & new freighter deliveries

2014-203330,555

2014-2033803

2014-203331,358

Freighter fleet

20141,605

20332,645 +1,040

5.2%

2013-2023

4.2%

2023-2033

4.7%

2013-2033

New aircraft31,358

+3.8%per annum

Beginning 2014

Growth

Passenger aircraft ≥100 seats, Freighter aircraft ≥10 tonnes

2033

40,000

35,000

30,000

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0

18,460

37,463

19,003

12,355

6,105

Replaced

Stay in service& converted

Passenger and freighter aircraft


20-year new deliveries of passenger and freighter aircraft

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

20,000

24,000

Single-aisle Small twin-aisle

Intermediatetwin-aisle

Very LargeAircraft

70% 16% 9% % units

45% 26% 18%

5%

11% % value

Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) and jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)

SINGLE-AISLE: 70% OF UNITS; WIDE-BODIES: 55% OF VALUESource: Airbus

DEMAND FOR OVER 31,350 NEW AIRCRAFTSource: Airbus

Traffic>

double

Pax fleet>

double

Demandfor 31,358New pax& freightaircraft

Valueof demand$4.6 trillion

2014 - 2033NEW DELIVERIES

31,358

013Global Market Forecast

2014-2023 2024-2033 2014-2033 Share of 2014-2033 new deliveries

Africa 459 514 973 3%

Asia/Pacific 5,107 7,146 12,253 39%

CIS 620 598 1,218 4%

Europe 3,135 3,032 6,167 20%

Latin America 1,011 1,252 2,263 7%

Middle East 1,039 1,109 2,148 7%

North America 2,816 2,717 5,533 18%

Freighters 452 351 803 2%

World 14,639 16,719 31,358 100%

NEW AIRCRAFT DEMAND PASSENGER AND FREIGHTER

Asia/Pacific Alone to take

39% deliveries

N.America/Europe

38% deliveries

1,555Pax aircraft

Converted tofreighters

11,037Pax aircraftReplaced by

moreEco-efficient

types

• Most deliveries to go to Asia Pacific, 39% or 12,253 passenger aircraft

• North America and Europe 38%, or 11,700 aircraft deliveries

• 1,555 passenger aircraft will be converted to freighters

• North America to take most freighters, 338 new, 545 converted, 37% of demand

• Mid-size freighter deliveries are the heart of the market – 49% new and converted

• 12,355 aircraft will be retired to be replaced by more eco-efficient type

New deliveries

Converted

Remarketed & stay in service

30,555

31,358

1,555

4,263

803

11,037

12,355

1,318

PassengerFleet

FreighterFleet

Retired

Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) and jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)

DEMAND FOR MORE THAN 31,000 NEW AIRCRAFT DELIVERIES

Demandfor air travel

02


Key drivers for air traffic growth:

Economic growth

Increasing urbanisation

Expanding middle class

Rise in migration, tourism

and international students

• Economic growth rates in emerging regions/countries will outstrip the developed.

• Emerging markets do not only include Asia/Pacific, but also Latin America, Africa and the Middle East.

• A ten percentage point increase in passengers from emerging countries in the last 10 years: more to come.

• Today, the middle class represent 33% of world population; forecasts suggest 63% by 2033.

• The middle class will grow nearly four times in the Asia/Pacific.

• International tourist arrivals to reach 1.6 billion in 2020, well above the 1.1 billion as of 2013.

INTERNATIONAL TOURIST ARRIVALS EXPECTED TO REACH1.6 BILLION PEOPLE BY 2020Source: World Tourism Organization, Airbus

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

International tourist arrivals (million)

History Forecast


1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

World population and share of urban agglomerations evolution (billion)

THE WORLD IS MORE URBANISEDSource: UN population division, Airbus

Share of international trips tickets issued in emerging countries

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

MORE AND MORE AIR PASSENGERS ORIGINATING FROM EMERGING COUNTRIESSource: Sabre GDD (September data of each year), Airbus

2033

2023

2013

2,356

3,740

5,375

967

446

264

679

Other

Rural

Asia-Pacific

Urban

North America

Europe & CIS

GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS TO MORE THAN DOUBLESource: Kharas and Gertz, Airbus

Global Middle Class*

(Millions of people)

*Households with dailyexpenditures between$10 and $100per person (at PPP)

x 2.3

x 3.8

596

775

2,186

3,675

261 252

697 673

2013 2023 203363%

7,100 7,900 8,500

World Population

Middle class as % of world population

48%33%

Urban share

• The network is constantly evolving but 40% of ASKs flown today are flown on routes existing 20 years ago

• The share of traffic on these routes is now stable, suggesting new route driven fragmentation is maturing

• Much of the fragmentation has been driven by LCCs and Middle Eastern airlines

• Airlines are finding more economical ways to expand through code share and alliances

• Unsurprisingly much of the opportunity focuses on the emerging nations

• Mega-cities are the home for larger aircraft. Today, 85% of A380s fly between these 42 cities, the remaining 15% fly from Mega-cities to secondary destinations

• Massive amount of traffic carried through the Aviation Mega-cities

Evolution of number of routes, 1995-2013, Index 100=1995

750

700

650

600

550

500

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

MOST OF THE NETWORK FRAGMENTATION IS DRIVEN BY LCCSAND MIDDLE EAST CARRIERSSource: OAG

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

1,400, 000

1,200, 000

1,000, 000

800,000

600,000

400,000

200,000

0

Evolution of monthly number of �ights, 1996-2013

CODE SHARE GENERALISATIONSource: OAG, September month

Code share flights

Operating flights

Middle East OthersLCC

Networkdevelopment


42AVIATIONMEGA-CITIES

DAILY PASSENGERS:Long Haul traffic to/from/via Mega Cities

OF LONG-HAUL TRAFFIC ON ROUTES to/from/via 42 cities

0.8M

94%

2013 AVIATION MEGA-CITIESSource: Airbus Market Research and Forecasts

> 10,000 daily long-haul passengers



91AVIATIONMEGA-CITIES

DAILY PASSENGERS:Long Haul traffic to/from/via Mega Cities

OF LONG-HAUL TRAFFIC ON ROUTES to/from/via 91 cities

2.2M

99%

2033 AVIATION MEGA-CITIESSource: Airbus Market Research and Forecasts

Cities with more than 10,000 daily long-haul passengers, Long-haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic

Source: Airbus


In the last 30 years:• Airport movements up nearly 2.5 times

• Airport connectivity almost doubled

• Average offered seats per aircraft heading towards 200, aircraft are getting bigger!

• Offered ASKs per aircraft have more than doubled

• Worldwide average load factor ~80%, up 17 percentage points since 1980

Productivity up,

Environmental impact down

Avg. number of movements per airport

x 1.8

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

AIRPORT CONNECTIVITYSource: OAG, Airbus

Avg. number of destinations per airport

20,000

18,000

16,000

14,000

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

x 2.4

AIRPORT MOVEMENTSSource: OAG, Airbus

x2.4 x1.8AIRPORT CONNECTIVITY

MOVEMENT PER AIRPORT

Is there a limit to productivity improvements? Still some margin regarding airport use


Kilograms per passenger per trip (avg.)

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

- 31%

FUEL CONSUMPTIONSource: ICAO, IATA, Airbus

Kilograms per passenger per trip (avg.)

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

- 31%

C02 EMISSIONSSource: ICAO, IATA, Airbus

OFFERED ASKS PER AIRCRAFTSource: OAG, Ascend, Airbus

+ 111%

OFFERED SEATS PER AIRCRAFTSource: OAG, Ascend, Airbus

Avg. number of offered seats per aircraft (000)

250

200

150

100

50

0

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

+ 43%

Is there a limit to productivity improvements?Still some margin regarding aircraft utilisation

Since 2000:• Average fuel per passenger per trip

is down 31%

• Therefore CO2 is also down 31%


03Traffic

forecast


World annual traf�c (RPKs - trillions)

Oil C

risis

Oil C

risis

Gulf

Cris

is

Asia

n Cr

isis

9/11

SARS

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

1963

1968

1973

1978

1983

1993

1998

2003

2008

2013

73%

Fina

ncia

l Cris

is

73%GROWTH DESPITE MULTIPLE CRISES OVER THE LAST TEN YEARS

• Aviation remains resilient to crises, growing 73% over the last 10 years.

• Domestic China will be the largest flow by 2033, representing 11.9% of world traffic.

• An average growth rate of 9.8% per year will make Domestic India the 7th largest flow by 2033, and the fastest growing domestic flow in our forecast.

• Airlines in the Asia/Pacific will fly 36% of total traffic, the same as North American and

European airlines combined.

• Airlines in Europe and North America will together fly 37%.

• Middle Eastern carriers will grow from an 8% share to 13% of traffic in the next 20 years.

Passenger traffic forecast

4.7%2013-2033

PER ANNUM

AIR TRAVEL HAS PROVED TO BE RESILIENT TO EXTERNAL SHOCKSSource: ICAO, Airbus

033Global Market Forecast032 Global Market Forecast

Dom

estic

PRC

Dom

estic

USA

Intr

a W

este

rn E

urop

e

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

- US

A

Dom

estic

Asi

a Em

ergi

ng

Asia

Em

ergi

ng -

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

Dom

estic

Indi

a

Indi

a Su

b-Co

ntin

ent -

Mid

dle

East

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

- M

iddl

e Ea

st

Dom

estic

Bra

zil

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

- PR

C

PRC

- US

A

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

- So

uth

Amer

ica

Sout

h Am

eric

a -

USA

Asia

Em

ergi

ng -

PRC

Cent

ral E

urop

e - W

este

rn E

urop

e

Indi

a Su

b-Co

ntin

ent -

USA

Asia

Em

ergi

ng -

Mid

dle

East

Asia

Adv

ance

d - A

sia

Emer

ging

Sub

Saha

ra A

frica

- W

este

rn E

urop

e

Billi

ons

RPK

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

_

DOMESTIC PRC WILL BE THE LARGEST O&D TRAFFIC FLOW IN 2033Source: Airbus GMF 2014

DOMESTIC INDIA WILL BE THE FASTEST O&D TRAFFIC FLOWSource: Airbus GMF 2014

Dom

estic

Indi

a

Indi

an S

ub -

PRC

Nort

h Af

rica

- PR

C

Sub

Saha

ra A

fric

a -

PRC

Indi

an S

ub -

Sou

th A

mer

ica

Asia

Em

ergi

ng -

Indi

an S

ub

Mid

dle

East

- R

ussi

a

Asia

Em

ergi

ng -

Sou

th A

mer

ica

Sub

Saha

ra A

fric

a -

Mid

dle

East

CIS

- PR

C

PRC

- Ru

ssia

Mid

dle

East

- S

outh

Am

eric

a

Cent

ral E

urop

e -

Mid

dle

East

Mid

dle

East

- P

RC

Asia

Em

ergi

ng -

PRC

Intr

a As

ia E

mer

ging

Asia

Adv

ance

d -

Indi

an S

ub

Indi

an S

ub -

Rus

sia

CIS

- M

iddl

e Ea

st

Mid

dle

East

- S

outh

Afr

ica

9.5%

9.5%

8.9%

8.6%

8.4%

8.4%

8.3%

8.2%

8.0%

7.9%

7.8%

7.8%

7.6%

7.6%

7.5%

7.5%

7.4%

7.2%

7.0%

7.0%

Billi

ons

RPK

400

300

200

100

_


ASIA-PACIFIC TO LEAD IN WORLD TRAFFIC BY 2033Source: Airbus GMF 2014

2013 traf�c 2012-2033 traf�cAsia-Paci�c

Europe

North America

Middle East

Latin America

CIS

Africa

1,0000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

RPK traf�c by airline domicile (billions)

5.7%30% 36%

3.6%25% 20%

2.9%24% 17%

7.1%8% 13%

5.4%5% 6%

5.4%4% 5%

4.7%3% 3%

20-YEARCAGR

% SHARE OF 2013 WORLD RPK

% SHARE OF2033 WORLD RPK


Emerging markets driving growth• Emerging markets will

drive growth, whereas traffic between emerging markets will grow 6.8% annually, representing 38 % of total traffic in 2033.

• 28% of traffic will involve flows in the advanced aviation markets, whereas International long-haul traffic will still represent the largest share of traffic worldwide in 2033.

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

World annual RPK (trillion)

ICAO total traf�c Airbus GMF 2014

Advanced-Advanced CAGR

2.6%Emerging-Advanced CAGR

5.0%

42%

33%

25%

28%

34%

38%

Emerging-Emerging CAGR

6.8%

EMERGING REGIONS WILL ACCOUNT FOR THE LARGEST SHARE OF ORIGIN AND DESTINATION TRAFFIC WORLDWIDESource: ICAO, Sabre GDD, Airbus GMF 2014

Emerging-Emerging

Advanced-Emerging

Advanced-Advanced


GMF 2013 GMF 2014

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

0

World trade evolution (billion 2010 $US)

2012-2032+4.6%/year

2012-2032+4.3%/year

• Freight traffic will grow 5.0% per annum over the next 10 years, and +4.5% over the next 20 years.

• Our freight traffic forecast is slightly lower this year, as a result of slightly lower long term prospects forecast for trade at 4.3% CAGR.

GMF FREIGHT FORECASTS REVISED DOWN SLIGHTLY Source: Seabury, Airbus

WORLD TRADE FORECASTS HAVE BEEN REVISED DOWNWARDS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS GMFSource: IHS Global Insight, Airbus

Freight traffic forecast

04Demand

for passenger aircraft

• The fleet will double to 34,800 aircraft

• 75% of operations are below 1,300nm for single-aisle, 4,800nm for Twin-Aisle, and 5,900nm for VLAs

• Each segment has discrete areas of operation in terms of range, but clearly there is some overlap

• Average seats per single aisle flight increasing from ~130 in 1993 to ~155 in 2013

• A focus for larger aircraft at Aviation Mega-cities

20%OF TWIN-AISLES OPERATE

Demand for passenger aircraft

LESS THAN

2,000 NM


1993 1998 2008 2013

160

155

150

145

140

135

130

125

120

Average seats per single-aisle �ight

DENSIFICATION OF SINGLE-AISLE AIRCRAFTSource: OAG, Airbus Market Research and Forecasts

+14%

20-YEAR GROWTH IN AVERAGE

SINGLE-AISLE SEATS


0

200

400

800

1,00

0

1,20

0

1,40

0

1,60

0

1,80

0

2,00

0

2,20

0

2,40

0

2,60

0

2,80

0

3,00

0

3,20

0

3,40

0

3,80

0

4,00

0

4,20

0

4,40

0

4,60

0

4,80

0

5,00

0

5,20

0

5,40

0

5,60

0

5,80

0

6,00

0

6,20

0

6,40

0

6,60

0

6,80

0

7,00

0

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%GCD Range (nm)

CLEAR SHIFT IN AIRCRAFT-TYPE DEPLOYMENT AROUND 2,000 NAUTICAL MILESSource: OAG, Airbus Market Research and Forecasts

Regional

VLASingle-aisle

Twin-aisle


Between secondary cities

From/To/Between AMC

A380

777-300/300ER

787

747-400/8

All Widebody Aircraft

777-200/200ER/-200LR

767

A330

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

Long-haul �ights by operation type

THE LARGER THE AIRCRAFT THE HIGHER THE FOCUS ON AVIATION MEGA-CITIESSource: OAG (Sept 2013)


1% 85%14%

7% 61%32%

1% 89%10%

2% 75%23%

GLOBAL NETWORK NORTH AMERICA

LCCs

OTHERS*

1% 79%20%

LATIN AMERICA 3% 75%22%

AFRICA

16% 38%

46%

MIDDLE EAST

2% 85%13%

CIS

5% 66%29%

ASIA PACIFIC

3% 79%18%

EUROPE

10%

47%43%

US$ 4.4 trillion

1,228

22,071

7,256

30,555 aircraft

New deliveries

Market valueFleet evolution

16,855

17,963

12,592

4,263

Beginning 2014

2033

Growth

Replaced

Stay in service& remarketed

New deliveries by neutral category

100 125 150 175 210 250 300 350 400 VLA

US$ 2.1 trillion

1,219

3,364

7,228 6,547

3,713

2,439 2,514

1,405898 1,228

US$ 1.9 trillion

US$ 0.4 trillion

TA

SA

VLA

New deliveries by region

051Global Market Forecast050 Global Market Forecast

Demandby region

05


• Asia-Pacific will lead world economic growth, both in real GDP with an average of 4.6% per year and in trade with an average of 5.7% per year. GDP is an important driver of aviation growth.

• Over 50% of the new routes will connect with Asia-Pacific.

• Emerging markets, such as Africa and the CIS, are also set for more connectivity with Asia-Pacific, with nearly 20% of new routes to the region coming from these regions.

• Seats and flights offered by the LCCs have increased dramatically since 2000.

• The fact that the seats offered has out-paced flight growth, means that the average aircraft capacity utilised by LCCs has grown more than 50% over that period.

• Domestic and intra-regional flying set to grow faster than inter-regional traffic; 6.2% per annum vs 5.2%. Although both are well above the global average for 20 year traffic growth at 4.7% CAGR.

12,253

34%

38% 62%

NEW DELIVERIES

WILL BE WIDE-BODY WITH MANY OF THESE TO BE USED ON MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONS, AS WELL AS LONG-HAUL.

REPLACEMENT FOR GROWTH

Asia- Pacific


Beginning2014

In 2014

5,083

* Passenger aircraft ≥100 seats ** 2013-2033 CAGR

2023-2033

ResultsRPK traffic growth from/to Asia-Pacific by region

Global Market Forecast056


• Europe will represent 20% of the world economy by 2033.

• Air traffic in Europe, expressed in ASKs, is 15% larger than the peak pre-crisis in 2007/2008.

• Today, 45% of all seats offered within Europe are on an LCC flight and there have been significant increases in LCC traffic to/from other regions such as CIS, Northern Africa and the Middle East.

• Today, there are more than 50 million monthly passengers connecting to long-haul flights. For major international carriers in Europe, these represent the core short haul market.

• While the majority of the growth has come from the short-haul market, which has grown by 75% in the last ten years; the long-haul market has also seen impressive growth of 45% over the same period.

• Today, nearly 50% of all long-haul flights connect with Europe and over 50% of long-haul seats offered connect to the region.

• For the next 20 years, long-haul passenger traffic will grow slightly faster than short-haul traffic (3.9% per year vs 3.8%.)

Europe

6,167

79%

49% 51%

NEW DELIVERIES

WILL BE SINGLE-AISLES DUE TO EUROPEAN POPULATION LANDSCAPE



Results RPK traffic growth from/to Europe by region


• US real GDP growth is forecast to average 2.5% per year in the 2013-2033 period. By 2033, North America will still account for 22% of the global economy (in real terms).

• Origin and destination (O&D) traffic to/from North America to grow at an average of 3.4% for the next 20 years.

• The annual retirement trend of passenger aircraft (>=100 seats) in North America is on an upward trajectory, with a 10-year CAGR of 6.8%.

• The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) estimates that airport congestion and delays cost the economy $22 billion in 2012, which could escalate to $63 billion in 2040.

• One tactic, which is helping to alleviate some of the effects today is the use of larger aircraft.

• Inter-regional flying set to grow significantly faster than domestic or intra-region operations, CAGR of 4.2% vs 1.9%.

North America

5,533

85%

65% 35%

NEW DELIVERIES

WILL BE SINGLE-AISLES, DUE TO THE IMPORTANCE OF THE US DOMESTIC MARKET. BUT REPLACEMENTS, AND AN OPPORTUNITY AND FOCUS ON INTERNATIONAL OPERATIONS WILL STIMULATE DEMAND FOR LARGER TYPES



Results

RPK traffic growth from/to North America by region


• The Middle East has become a major centre for air transport, one of growing global importance.

• The share of passenger aircraft in the world operated by the regions carriers has doubled in 10 years. This has occurred even with the global fleet of wide-body aircraft growing 24%.

• It is the only region in the world where the wide-body fleet is larger than the single-aisle fleet.

• Globally, air traffic has doubled every 15 years; in the Middle East, ASKs multiplied three and a half times in the last 10 years alone.

• Medium and long-haul routes between the Middle East and Asia-Pacific or Europe constitute the core growth markets for traffic.

• Since 2007, the ASK market share of low-cost carriers on Middle Eastern short-haul markets has increased significantly, reaching nearly 25% today.

Middle East

2,148

62%

20% 80%

NEW DELIVERIES

WILL BE WIDE-BODIES DUE TO THE POSITION THE REGION IS CREATING FOR ITSELF AS A MAJOR GLOBAL HUB



Results RPK traffic growth from/to Middle East by region


• The region’s real GDP growth is expected to average 3.9% per year in the 2013-2033 period, above world average of 3.2%, and helping to stimulate air travel.

• In countries such as Chile, Brazil and Colombia, the propensity to travel is expected to reach the levels currently observed in many more mature economies by 2033.

• Traffic within the region is expected to be prominent over the next 20 years, representing 35% of total RPKs in 2033, from 30% in 2013.

• Two of the top twenty largest traffic flows, are international traffic flows connecting to the region: Western Europe - South America, with an expected annual growth of 4.6% and South America - USA, with an average annual expansion of 5.2%.

• There has been strong growth in domestic markets, even beyond the two largest markets, Brazil and Mexico. For example, over the last ten years a double digit annual growth rate in Chile was matched by Colombia and Peru.

Latin America & Caribbean

2,263

79%

33% 67%

NEW DELIVERIES


WILL BE SINGLE-AISLES DRIVEN BY STRONG GROWTH IN AIR TRAVEL DOMESTICALLY AND AROUND THE REGION (5.6% INTRA-REGIONAL AND DOMESTIC GROWTH PER ANNUM).


ResultsRPK traffic growth from/to Latin America by region


1,218

132%

85%

NEW DELIVERIES

THE MAJORITY WILL BE FOR GROWTH

WILL BE SINGLE-AISLES

THE CIS PASSENGER FLEET IS FORECAST TO GROW

• The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) is one of the largest regions in the world, departing from St Petersburg in Russia, it would take almost 9 hours flying to reach its eastern most city.

• Over the last decade, traffic to/from/within CIS has grown on average 11% a year in terms of ASKs, twice as fast as the world average of 5.1%.

• In 2013, traffic growth reached 7.0%, dramatically outpacing economic activity, aviation’s traditional driver for growth.

• An easing of visa procedures helped, stimulate the number of arrivals in CIS countries, which have increased 50% over the last 10 years.

• Traffic growth will be above the World average, with strong growth in inter-regional traffic at a 6.2% CAGR.

• The share of older less efficient eastern built aircraft in the fleet, above 100 seats, has reduced in 10 years from 86% in 2003 to only 12% today.

CIS

TO

AIRCRAFT2,044


1,036

20 year newdeliveries

1,218

Results RPK traffic growth from/to CIS by region



• Africa’s biggest asset is people, its population is set to grow to 1.7 billion by 2033.

• Strengthening entrepreneurship, travel and tourism, regional integration are often listed as just a few of the drivers of sustainable growth in Africa.

• Over the 2013-2033 period, Africa is forecast to reach similar economic growth as Asia-Pacific, with average real GDP growth of 4.6% per year or trade growth of 5.5% per year.

• In terms of air traffic, intra-regional development also represents a huge potential for air transport in Africa, as the share of intra-regional passenger traffic is well below observed levels in Asia-Pacific, the Americas or Europe.

• At just an 8% share of intra-regional traffic, the low cost model could play a bigger role in Africa’s aviation future.

• More growth expected on domestic and intra-regional flying than inter-regionally, 6.1% vs 5.5% CAGR.

Africa

973

146%

8%

75%

92%

NEW DELIVERIES

BY 2033

FLEET SET TO GROW

REPLACEMENT

WILL BE SINGLE-AISLES

FOR GROWTH


Results RPK traffic growth from/to Africa by region


Demand for freighters

06


North America

977

775

Latin America

16274 Africa

8649

Europe & CIS

452337

Middle East

17067

Asia-Paci�c

798

303

Freightforecast 2014

North America fleet is mainlya replacement market Asia-Pacific fleet is set to tripleas growth market

THE FUTURE FREIGHTER FLEET DISTRIBUTION WILL REFLECTTHE GROWING INFLUENCE OF EMERGING MARKETSSource: Airbus GMF 2014, ASCEND

2014: 1,605

2033: 2,645

World fleet evolutionFreight traffic growth

4.5% CAGR*


• Today, there are 1,605 dedicated freighter aircraft with a cargo hold of at least 10 tons.

• Air Cargo transports a third of total World trade by value.

• Demand fundamentals remain strong in the long term. Global trade is forecast to develop at 4.3% per year for the next 20 years.

• Freight market dynamics have changed however. In recent years, changing practices in inventory management, available capacity and pricing from other modes, such as ships, has had an effect.

• In the future an increase in passenger airlines will lead to increased belly capacity, potentially leading to less demand for dedicated freighters.

• More intra-regional traffic and the express freight boom means that freighters in the mid-size category are becoming more attractive to the freight operators.

• Despite the challenges facing the air cargo market, the long-term prospects remain positive, with freight traffic set to double over the next 20 years.

• Airbus forecasts demand for more than 800 new build freighters over that time

• Our forecast suggests that the highest demand in terms of volumes, both new and converted, will come from the mid-size freighter category with 1,145 aircraft (414 new and 731 converted).

1,555Converted

803New build

Fleet to almost Double

FREIGHTER DELIVERIES WILL EXCEED 2,300 AIRCRAFT IN THE NEXT 20 YEARS

New freighters

Conversions

Sm

all

10t <

pay

load

< 3

0t

1,500

1,000

500

0

1,145

601612

Freighter deliveries over the next 20 years

Mid

-Siz

e30

t < p

aylo

ad <

80t

Larg

epa

yloa

d <

80t

731

414

212

389

Summary & methodology

07


Summaryof results

Africa Asia-Pacific

CIS Europe Lat. &Caribb.

Middle East

North America

TOTAL

Single-Aisle 734 8,066 1,036 4,895 1,784 826 4,730 22,071

Small Twin-Aisle

158 2,510 132 754 349 481 569 4,953

Intermediate Twin-Aisle

54 1,055 25 368 102 500 199 2,303

Very Large Aircraft

27 622 25 150 28 341 35 1,228

TOTAL 973 12,253 1,218 6,167 2,263 2,148 5,533 30,555

Africa Asia-Pacific


Middle East

North America

TOTAL

Single-Aisle 734 8,066 1,036 4,895 1,784 826 4,730 22,071

Small Twin-Aisle

162 2,535 134 763 356 486 709 5,145

Intermediate Twin-Aisle

57 1,147 39 410 125 543 320 2,641

Very Large Aircraft

32 724 32 185 29 387 112 1,501

TOTAL 985 12,472 1,241 6,253 2,294 2,242 5,871 31,358

Africa Asia-Pacific


Middle East

North America

TOTAL

Small - - - - - - - -

Mid-size 5 72 13 36 30 29 229 414

Large 7 147 10 50 1 65 109 389

TOTAL 12 219 23 86 31 94 338 803

Africa Asia-Pacific


Middle East

North America

TOTAL

Small 39 311 7 81 82 6 86 612

Mid-size 23 116 22 123 37 24 386 731

Large 10 73 13 27 - 16 73 212

TOTAL 72 500 42 231 119 46 545 1,555

NEW PASSENGER AIRCRAFT DELIVERIES BY REGION

NEW PASSENGER & FREIGHT AIRCRAFT DELIVERIES BY REGIONNEW FREIGHT AIRCRAFT DELIVERIES BY REGION

CONVERTED FREIGHT AIRCRAFT DELIVERIES BY REGION

Passenger aircraft ≥100 seats and freight aircraft ≥10 tons


AIRBUS S.A.S. 31707 Blagnac Cedex, France © AIRBUS S.A.S. 2014 - All rights reserved, Airbus, its logo and the product names are registered trademarks.

Concept design by Airbus Multi Media Support 20140507. Photos by: Airbus, Datacraft, H. Goussé, A. Rich. Courtesy of the St. Petersburg Museum of History.

Reference D14029465. September, 2014. Printed in France by Art & Caractère.

Confidential and proprietary document. This document and all information contained herein is the sole property of AIRBUS S.A.S. No intellectual property rights are granted by the delivery of this document or the disclosure of its content. This document shall not be reproduced or disclosed to a third party without the express written consent of AIRBUS S.A.S. This document and its content shall not be usedfor any purpose other than that for which it is supplied. The statements made herein do not constitute an offer.They are based on the mentioned assumptionsand are expressed in good faith. Where the supporting grounds for these statements are not shown, AIRBUS S.A.S. will be pleased to explain the basis thereof.

This brochure is printed on Stucco Old mill - Premium white and Offset standard.This paper is produced in factories that are accredited EMAS and certified ISO 9001-14001, PEFC and FSC CoC. It is produced using pulp that has been whitened without either chlorine or acid. The paper is entirely recyclable and is produced from trees grown in sustainable forest resources.

The printing inks use organic pigments or minerals. There is no use of basic dyes or dangerous metals from the cadmium, lead, mercury or hexavalent chromium group.

The printer, Art & Caractère (France 81500),is engaged in a waste management and recycling programme for all resulting by-products.

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