Florida’s Demographic Trends… Present and Future

Dr. Tim ChapinDepartment of Urban & Regional Planning

Center for Demography and Population HealthFlorida State University

Presentation at the Florida State Victims Assistance Academy (FSVAA) Conference

West Palm Beach, Florida

July 28, 2008

Aspects of Population of Interest to Service Providers

When it comes to population, service professionals are typically interested in the following:

1) Population size and growth, 2) Population composition, 3) Population distribution,4) Changes in these factors over time,5) Potential Consequences of these changes.

Today, we’ll discuss major population trends in the United States and Florida, with an eye towards understanding how and why service providers should be aware of these trends.

Topic #1: Population Growth

Pop Quiz

1. How populous was Florida in 1850? What were the most populous places & counties?

2. How populous was Florida in 1900? What were the most populous places & counties?

3. How populous was Florida in 1950? What were the most populous places & counties?

4. How populous was Florida in 2000? What were the most populous places & counties?

Ongoing Population Growth

Florida's Population, 1830-2000

-

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

18,000,000

1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

Population

Just over 500,000

Almost 3 million

Almost 16 million

Roughly 90,000

Florida Population Today

• As of the 2000 Census, Florida had almost 16 million residents (15,982,378).• By 2000, Florida was the nation’s fourth largest state, with the expectation that in the next 20 years it would pass New York for 3rd Place.• During the 1990s, the state added over 3 million new residents, a rate of growth of roughly 23.5%.

Other Indicators of the State’s Economic Activity • The State University System grew by over 70,000 students in the 1990s (almost two new FSUs).• It is estimated that the state welcomed over 75 million visitors in 2005.

Florida Today

• Florida remains one of the fastest growing states in the country, even after adding 300,000 net new residents per year for each of the last thirty-five years.

• This growth has placed strains on many of the state’s infrastructure, urban service, and social service systems:

Roads, Potable water supplies, Solid waste

Police and fire, EMS, Courts

Homeless shelters, Free clinics, Victim assistance

• Despite recent economic problems, there is every reason to believe this growth will endure…

the Florida Boom continues with no end in sight

Projected Population Growth

-

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

195019551960196519701975198019851990199520002005201020152020Year

Population

Actual Pop

Low Proj

Med Proj

High Proj

Florida Population Growth

State of Florida Population Projections2000 2005 2010 2015

Low Series 15,982,378 17,322,000 18,338,200 19,390,300 Pct Change 8.4% 14.7% 21.3%Med. Series 15,982,378 17,760,000 19,397,400 21,000,800 Pct Change 11.1% 21.4% 31.4%High Series 15,982,378 17,892,100 19,949,500 22,029,900 Pct Change 11.9% 24.8% 37.8%

Source: BEBR

• The state’s official population forecast predicts another 3 million new residents per decade for the foreseeable future.

• Holding other factors constant, then, social service needs are expected to increase by over 30% between 2000 and 2015.

Topic #2: Population Composition

Pop Quiz

1) By 2000, how big was Florida’s elderly population?

2) In 2000, what percentage of Florida’s residents were aged 65+?

3) What percentage of Florida’s residents are Foreign Born?

4) What percentage of Florida’s residents do not speak English at home?

Population Composition

• Population composition: The characteristics of the population being studied. Among those characteristics of most interest :

--Age --Race/Ethnicity--Country of origin --Language spoken

Trends Affecting Population Composition

• The United States and Florida experienced many changes in these attributes throughout the Twentieth Century:

1) An aging population2) An increasingly racially and ethnically diverse population3) An increasingly culturally and linguistically diverse population

Population Pyramids

• One way of looking at changes in the composition of a population is through Population Pyramids.

• Population pyramids show the composition of a population by age and sex (or the percent of the total population in each age-sex cohort).

• These pyramids typically show the following:

--Males on left side/Females on the right side

--Age groups as individual cohorts going from youngest on the bottom to oldest on the top

U.S. Population Pyramids 1900, 1950, 2000

BabyBoom

BabyBoomlet

Florida Population Pyramid, 2000

5% 3% 1% 1% 3% 5%

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Percent Population

Females

Males

Source: 2000 Census SF1, Table P12

BabyBoom

BabyBoomlet

The Growth of the Elderly Population

Yes, We’re as Old as We Think We Are!

…And We’re Only Getting Older

Children

Elderly

America HAS ChangedThe “Dependency Ratio” 1900-2050

(Children and Elderly per 100 People)

…But We’ve Got Lots of College Kids, Too!Florida’s Booming Higher Ed System

The U.S. as a Melting Pot

The Growth in the Hispanic Population

Ethnicity Matters: The Demographic Differences Between Hispanics and Non-Hispanics

Florida as a “Gateway State”• Florida is one of several “gateway states” that take in the vast majority of immigrants to the United States. (CA, TX, NY)• As of 2005, roughly 1 in 6 (16%) of Florida residents were born outside of the United States.

Impacts of the Melting Pot

A Large Percentage of Foreign Born Residents• The 2000 Census found that 2.7 million Florida residents

were Foreign Born (16.7% of the state’s population).• Florida ranked 5th in the nation on this measure.

Many Households Where English is not Spoken at Home• The 2000 Census found that almost 3.5 million Florida

residents speak a language other than English at home (23.1% of the state’s population).

• Florida ranked 8th in the nation on this measure.

Crime statistics bear out a very simple message:

Demographics Matter!Crime rates continue to vary by key demographic attributes, including:

• Age: Peak victimization rates between 12-25• Race: Blacks are victims at a higher rate than Whites• Ethnicity: Hispanics are victimized at a higher rate than non-Hispanics• Gender: Generally speaking, Males are more likely to be victims than Females• Elderly Crime: More than nine in ten crimes against the elderly were property crimes

Why Demographics Matter

http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/glance/vage.htm

Why Demographics Matter: Age

Why Demographics Matter: Race

Why Demographics Matter: Gender

Topic #3: Population Distribution

Population Distribution

• Population distribution: The location of population across geography/space.

Trends Shaping Population Distribution• Major shifts in population distribution occurred in the

Twentieth Century in the United States:

--Concentration: Movement from Rural to Metro Areas

--Deconcentration: Movement from Cities to Suburbs• Service providers should be interested in these changes as

they will impact the location and type of services required by the population.

Population Distribution in Florida

Concentration Illustrated

Roughly 4 of every 5 Americanslives in a metropolitan area now.

Deconcentration Illustrated

As of 2000, 1 of every 2 Americanslives in a suburban area.

Growth in the Burbs and Exurbs:2000-2015 Pop Growth Rates by County

Major Population Trends in FL• Growth throughout Florida• Ongoing growth in SW FL• Continued Orlando MSA Boom• Emergence of FGN

Growth Rate

3% - 20%

20% - 40%

40% - 60%

60% - 100%

Topic #4: Households

Pop Quiz1) What was the average household size in…

--1900--1950--2000

2) If you were a developer, which of the following product niches do you think is the best place to make money:

1. “McMansions” (>4000 sq ft homes)2. Conventional suburbs3. Zero Lot Line Homes4. Condos and Multi-family apartments

Households Get Smaller,While Homes Get Bigger

“Leave it to Beaver”Getting Left Behind

• The vast majority (~90%) of new households created in the next two decades will not contain children.

• In particular, lots more “singles” households will come into existence.

• Traditionally Americans have thought that Crime, especially Violent Crime, is an inner-city problem. • There is some truth to this view, but Crime (like people) is suburbanizing.

• Urban households continue to be the most vulnerable to property crime, burglary, motor vehicle theft and theft.• But, suburban crime is up; In some metro areas crime rates are growing faster in suburban areas than in urban areas.

Why Location Matters

Summing Up: Part I• Florida will continue to boom.

There will be a growing need for services (in a fiscal climate where less funding may be available).

• There is an aging population, with roughly 1 in 4 Floridians of elderly age by 2025.There will be increased (and specialized) demands for elderly services.

• A population that continues to diversify.Service providers will need to recognize and be prepared for increasingly complex households, cultural settings, and language issues.

• Suburbanization and exurbanization appear set to continue.Services will be required across a wider geographic area, to an increasingly (geographically) disconnected population.

• Non-children households, especially “singles” households, are where the growth is.While there may be an emphasis upon married couple households and/or households with children, household trends are moving away from this classic suburban household model.

Summing Up: Part II

The Best Source: The Census Bureau

• http://www.census.gov

• See especially the “Quickfacts” section of their website

Sources for Florida Specific Information

• Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) at the University of Florida

• Center for Demography and Population Health at Florida State University

Sources for Local Data

• Your City/County Planning Departments

Where to Go for Information onDemographic Conditions and Trends