Floods: the Awesome Power (Suzanne Van Cooten, Ph.D)

8/7/2019 Floods: the Awesome Power (Suzanne Van Cooten, Ph.D)

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How Is A Flood Defined?

Websters Dictionary

1 a : A rising and overflowing of a body of water especially onto normally dry land; also : a condition ofoverflowing b capitalized: a flood described in the Bible as covering the earth in the timeof Noah2 : The flowing in of the tide3 : An overwhelming quantity or volume; also : a state of abundant flow or volume

A flood which occurs within six hours or less of the causative event. In some partsof the Nation, the actual time threshold for an event to be considered a flash flood may beless than six hours.

Any high flow, overflow, or inundation by water which causes or threatens damage.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MANUAL 10-950, SEPTEMBER 26, 2002

Operations and Services Hydrologic Services Program, NWSPD 10-9

How Is A Flash Flood Defined?

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MANUAL 10-950, SEPTEMBER 26, 2002Operations and Services Hydrologic Services Program, NWSPD 10-9

A local flood of great volume and short duration generally resulting from heavy rainfall in theimmediate vicinity

Websters Dictionary

Etymology: Middle English, from Old English flOd; akin to Old High German fluotflood, Old English flOwan to flow


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How Can I Decide if it is a Flood or a Flash Flood?

Duration of Time from Precipitation Event(s) to onset of flooding

Common Flash Flood Producers

Heavy Localized Rainfall

Dam or Levee Failure

Sudden Release of Water held by an Ice Jam orDebris Flow

Common Flood Producers

Regional Excessive Rainfall

Mainstem Seasonal River System Flooding

Severe Local Storms Large-Scale Circulation Patterns

Increasing Spatial CoverageIndividual Thunderstorm Repeated Occurrences of Convective Complexes


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Floods- An International Perspective


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Number of Great Natural Catastrophes 1950-2006

UN Definition: The region affected requires supraregional or international assistance; This is the

case for events when there are thousands of fatalities, when hundreds of thousands of people are

left homeless, or when overall losses and/or insured losses are of exceptional proportions

http://www.munichre.com/publications/302-05217_en.pdf?rdm=28513

Trend Line


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EventEvent CountryCountry MonthMonth FatalitiesFatalities Cost (US$ million)Cost (US$ million)

Hurricane KatrinaHurricane Katrina U.S.U.S. Aug., 2005Aug., 2005 1,322 (1,8331,322 (1,833-- NHC Report)NHC Report) 125,000125,000

EarthquakeEarthquake Japan: KobeJapan: Kobe Jan., 1995Jan., 1995 6,4306,430 100,000100,000

EarthquakeEarthquake U.S.: NorthridgeU.S.: Northridge Jan., 1994Jan., 1994 6161 44,00044,000FloodFlood ChinaChina MayMay--Sept., 1998Sept., 1998 4,1594,159 30,70030,700

EarthquakeEarthquake Japan: NiigataJapan: Niigata Oct., 2004Oct., 2004 4646 28,00028,000

Hurricane AndrewHurricane Andrew U.S.U.S. Aug., 1992Aug., 1992 6262 26,50026,500

FloodFlood ChinaChina Jun.Jun.--Aug, 1996Aug, 1996 3,0483,048 24,00024,000

Hurricane IvanHurricane Ivan U.S.U.S. Sept., 2004Sept., 2004 125125 23,00023,000

FloodFlood U.S. Mississippi RiverU.S. Mississippi River JunJun--Aug, 1993Aug, 1993 4848 21,00021,000Hurricane WilmaHurricane Wilma Mexico, U.S. CaribbeanMexico, U.S. Caribbean Oct. 2005Oct. 2005 4242 18,00018,000

Top Ten Natural Disasters 1980-2006 (Economic Losses) 6 of the 10 Events Affected U.S.


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EventEvent CountryCountry MonthMonth FatalitiesFatalities Cost (USCost (US

$ million)$ million)

FloodFlood IndiaIndia Aug.Aug. 1,1501,150 5,0005,000

HurricaneHurricane

KatrinaKatrina

U.S.U.S. Aug.Aug. 1,3221,322 125,000125,000

HurricaneHurricane

RitaRita

U.S.U.S. Sept.Sept. 1010 16,00016,000

HurricaneHurricane

StanStan

MiddleMiddle

AmericaAmerica

Oct.Oct. 840840 3,0003,000

EarthquakeEarthquake Pakistan,Pakistan,

IndiaIndia

OctOct 88,00088,000 5,2005,200

HurricaneHurricane

WilmaWilma

Mexico,Mexico,

U.S.U.S.

CaribbeanCaribbean

Oct.Oct. 4242 18,00018,000

Worldwide Flood Events 2005 :

100-110 Events (Flood and Flash Flood)

4,240 Fatalities

Over 16 Billion in Losses

Reference: Munich Re, Topics Geo 2005


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CountryCountry YearYear FatalitiesFatalities Cost (US$ million)Cost (US$ million)

ChinaChina MayMay--Sept., 1998Sept., 1998 4,1594,159 30,70030,700

ChinaChina Jun.Jun.--Aug, 1996Aug, 1996 3,0483,048 24,00024,000

U.S. Mississippi RiverU.S. Mississippi River JunJun--Aug, 1993Aug, 1993 4848 21,00021,000EuropeEurope Aug., 2002Aug., 2002 3939 16,50016,500

North KoreaNorth Korea Jul.Jul.--Aug, 1995Aug, 1995 6868 15,00015,000

ChinaChina MayMay--Sept., 1991Sept., 1991 2,6282,628 13,60013,600

ChinaChina Jun.Jun.--Sept., 1993Sept., 1993 3,3003,300 11,00011,000

ItalyItaly Nov., 1994Nov., 1994 6868 9,3009,300

Bangladesh, India, NepalBangladesh, India, Nepal Jul.Jul.--Aug., 1993Aug., 1993 2,9532,953 8,5008,500

EuropeEurope Oct., 2000Oct., 2000 3838 8,5008,500

Top Ten Flood Disasters 1980-2006 (Economic Losses)

June August Monsoon Floods in Bangladesh, India, and Nepal

Bangladesh 2/3 of the country was under water for most of the time

2200 people drowned and 5 billion in economic loss

June-September China River Floods

Hundreds of thousands of buildings destroyed

1,000 people drowned and economic losses of 8 billion dollars

Notable 2004 Flooding Events which are not mentioned in economic loss table

May- Haiti and Dominican Republic

2000 people died due to flood waters and mudslides


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United States

Flood Fatalities and Economic Impacts


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What Storm-Related Hazard isresponsible for the highest numberof fatalities in the United States?

a. Lightning

b. Tornadoes

c. Heavy Rainfall/ Flooding

d. High Winds


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Storm Related Fatalities 1975-

004

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Year

NumberofFatalities

Flood Lightning Tornado Hurricane

2004 FatalitySummary- 82 Flood , 34 Tornado, 34 Hurricane, 31 Lightning, 27 Cold, 28 Winter, 6 Heat


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Percent of Total Storm Related Hazard Fatalities 1975-2004

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 0 1 2 3 4

Year

Pe

rcentofTot

Flood Lightning Tornado Hurricane

30 Year Average (1975-2004) Flood = 107, Lightning = 64, Tornado = 54, Hurricane = 15

10 Year Average (1995-2004) Flood = 88, Lightning = 49, Tornado = 57, Hurricane = 21

Flood FatalityInformation fromNWS Hydrologic Information Center Other Hazard FatalityInformation fromNWSSummary ofNatural HazardStatistics


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St rm D t - H z r

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Y

r

D

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P k , Jr., R.A., .W. D w , J.Z. B r r M r , 2002: Flood Damage in the United States, 1926-2000: AReanalysis ofNational Weather Service Estimates. Boulder, CO: UCAR.

With Caveats on Flood Data Economic Tabulations as outlined in


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Year Loss Dollars Paid Number of Claims

2005 $13,101,490,578 149,711

2004 $2,140,197,672 54,745

1995 $1,295,575,169 62,441

2001 $1,276,846,344 43,539

1998 $886,026,013 57,340

1996 $828,040,301 52,675

2003 $771,794,480 36,478

1999 $754,837,772 47,240

1992 $710,247,980 44,651

1989 $661,668,435 36,247

NFIP Loss Dollars Paid

$

$2,000,000,000.00

$4,000,000,000.00

$6,000,000,000.00

$8,000,000,000.00

$10,000,000,000.00

$12,000,000,000.00

$14,000,000,000.00

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

N ! " P Loss Dollars Paid

NFIP Number of Claims Paid

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

N#

$ P Loss Dollars Paid

National lood nsurance Program EMA Web Page

Year Loss Dollars Paid Per Capita Claim

2005 $13,101,490,578 $ 87,512

2004 $2,140,197,672 $ 39,094

2001 $1,276,846,344 $ 29,326

2003 $771,794,480 $ 21,1581995 $1,295,575,169 $ 20,749

1994 $ 411,079,605 $ 19,046

1993 $ 659,092,451 $ 18,286

1989 $661,668,435 $ 18,254

2002 $ 433,198,849 $ 17,149

1997 $ 519,511,873 $ 17,124


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Flood types: production methods on

multiple time and space scalesFlash Floods

Weather Produced:

Individual Storm-Quick-Burst

Rainfall

Weather/Human Factors:

Ice Jam/Debris FlowsHuman Factor:

Dam Failures

Landfalling Systems with Oceanic/Tropical Origins

Weather Produced:

Organized Storm Complex

Tropical Systems/NorEasters

Regional Floods

Multiple Storm Complexes reoccurring for weeks

Prolonged Regional River System Flooding


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Flash Flood Significant Events

June 14, 1990 Shadyside, Ohio (Evening)

Most Deadly and Destructive Flash Flood since 1980

15-20 Foot Wall of Water

26 People Killed- 2 Bodies Recovered 30 Miles Downstream At he Hannibal

Locks and Dam on the Ohio River

80 Homes Destroyed, 250 Damaged with 6-8 Million Dollars in Damage

July 31, 1976 Big Thompson Canyon Flood, Colorado (Evening)

8 Inches of Rainfall in One Hour

139 People with 30 Million Dollars ofDamage

3-5 Inches Of Rain In Less Than 2 Hours Fell On Saturated Soils

Impacts Multiplier: Time of Day

Peoples Access to Info


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Ice Jams (From US Corps ofEngineers Data and Web Pages)

Israel River, Lancaster, NHIce Jam DatabaseUS Army, ERDC, CRREL-IceEngineering Group72 Lyme RoadHanover, NH 03755

Phone: 603-646-4187Fax: 603-646-4477E-mail: [email protected]

The rates of water level rise can vary from feet per minute to feet per hour during ice jam flooding. In some instances,communities have many hours of lead time between the time an ice jam forms and the start of flooding. In other cases,the lead time is a little as one hour.

For example, in March 1992, an ice jam developed at 7:00 a.m. in Montpelier, VT. By 8:00 a.m. the downtown area wasflooded (Figure 2-3).During the next 11 hours, the business district was covered with an average of 1.2 to 1.5 m (4 to 5 ft)of water. The event occurred so quickly that there was not sufficient time to warn residents so they could protect theirgoods.Even after water levels dropped, damage related to the flooding continued as cold temperatures caused freezeupof wet objects.Damages of less than one day were estimated at $5 million (FEMA 1992b).


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Dam Breaks

June 1, 188 Johnstown, Pennsylvania

20 Million Tons of Water Released

Official City Records list 2,207 dead but witnesses claim more

March 12, 1928 St Francisquito Canyon, California

William Mulholland's great St. Francis Dam broke at three minutes before midnight on March 12, 1928,sending a 180-foot-high wall of water crashing down San Francisquito Canyon and claiming approximately470 lives by the time the floodwaters reached the Pacific Ocean at Ventura.

The piano keyboard in the foreground of this photograph is an eerie reminder of the families that were

caught unawares in the middle of that fateful night. The flood was the second-worst disaster in California

www.scvhistory.com

Its waters swept through the Santa Clara Valley toward the PacificOcean, about 54 miles away. 65 miles of valley was devastatedbefore the water finally made its way into the ocean betweenOxnard and Ventura.

At its peak the wall of water was said to be 78 feet high; by the

time it hit Santa Paula, 42 miles south of the dam, the water wasestimated to be 25 feet deep. Almost everything in its path wasdestroyed: livestock, structures, railways, bridges, livestock, andorchards.

By the ti e it was over, parts of Ventura County lay under 70feet of ud and debris. Over 500 people were killed andda age esti ates topped $20 illion. ((www.USC.EDU)

history, second only to the San Francisco earthquake and fire of 1906

http://www.damsafety.org/


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Nove ber 1977 at 1:30 AM- Kelly Barnes Da (Rock Crib) Toccoa, Georgia Da Failure

40 People Died (Almost 50 percent Children) In 1899 Original dam constructed of interlocking sections of timber

or concrete, forming cells which are filled with earth or broken rock.


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Rappaport,E. Loss of Life In The United States Associated With Recent Atlantic Tropical Cyclones. Bulletin of the American MeteorologicalSociety. Vol 81, No. 9, September 2000.

In a study from 1970 to 1999, freshwater flooding accounted for more than half (59%) of

U.S. tropical cyclone deaths. These floods are why 63% of U.S. tropical cyclone deaths

during that period occurred in inland counties.

At least 23% of U.S. tropical cyclone deaths occur to people who drown in, or attempting to

abandon, their cars.

78% of children killed by tropical cyclones drowned in freshwater floods.


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TarRiverBasinU

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AccumulatedRainfallMidnightESTSeptember18,2003to8AMESTSe

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Time(EST)

Rain Accumulation (Inch

LOUN7(USGS2081747)

TOWN7(USGS2083640)

RMBN7(USGS20825088

TarRiverBasinECONETSites

AccumulatedRainfall1AMESTSeptember18,2003to8AMESTSeptember19,2003

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

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Rain Accumulation (Inches)

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9/4/2003

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9/23/2003

9/25/2003

9/27/2003

9/29/2003

Date

F

MeanStreamflow

MovementofFloodWa


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Inland Flooding Evacuate and Turn Around Dont Drown

Hurricane Floyd (1999)Intense rains and record flooding to the Eastern U.S. Ofthe 56 people who perished, 50 drowned due to inlandflooding.

Tropical Storm Alberto (1994)Drifted over the Southeast United States and producedtorrential rainfall. More than 21 inches of rain fell atAmericus Georgia. Thirty-three people drowned.

Damages exceeded $750 million.

Tropical Storm Claudette (1979)Produced 45 inches of rain to an area near Alvin, Texas,contributing to more than $600 million in damages.

Hurricane Agnes (1972)Produced floods in the Northeast United States which

contributed to 122 deaths and $6.4 billion in damages.

Hurricane Diane (1955)Brought inland flooding to Pennsylvania, New York, andNew England contributing to nearly 200 deaths and $4.2billion in damages.

Hurricane Floyd NASA


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YearYear MonthMonth EventEvent CauseCause NOAA StormNOAA StormData Total LossData Total Loss

NFIP # PaidNFIP # PaidLossesLosses

NFIP AmountNFIP AmountPaidPaid

NFIP AvgNFIP AvgPaid LossPaid Loss

FatalitiesFatalities(Storm Data)(Storm Data)

20042004 SeptSept HurricaneHurricaneIvanIvan

LandfallingTropicalLandfallingTropicalSystemSystem

14 Billion14 Billion 28,05328,053 1,407,641,7521,407,641,752 50,17850,178 5757

20042004 SeptSept HurricaneHurricaneFrancesFrances


9 Billion9 Billion 6,5526,552 188,747,694188,747,694 28,80828,808 4848

20042004 AugAug HurricaneHurricaneCharleyCharley


15 Billion (Est)15 Billion (Est) 3,0823,082 58,843,65258,843,652 19,09319,093 3434

20032003 SeptSept HurricaneHurricaneIsabelIsabel


5 Billion5 Billion 19,56919,569 460,975,889460,975,889 23,55623,556 5555

20012001 JunJun TropicalTropicalStorm AllisonStorm Allison


5.1 Billion5.1 Billion 30,29130,291 1,095,419,2591,095,419,259 36,16336,163 4343

19991999 SeptSept HurricaneHurricaneFloydFloyd


6.5 Billion6.5 Billion 18,61218,612 439,100,271439,100,271 23,59223,592 7777

19981998 SeptSept HurricaneHurricaneGeorgesGeorges


6.5 Billion6.5 Billion 8,8328,832 149,384,694149,384,694 16,91416,914 1616

19981998 Aug Aug HurricaneHurricaneBonnieBonnie


1.1 Billion1.1 Billion 2,4922,492 22,125,05522,125,055 8,8788,878 33

2005 Event2005 Event CountryCountry MonthMonth FatalitiesFatalities Cost (US $ million)Cost (US $ million)

FloodFlood IndiaIndia Aug.Aug. 1,1501,150 5,0005,000

Hurricane KatrinaHurricane Katrina U.S.U.S. Aug.Aug. 1,3221,322 125,000125,000

Hurricane RitaHurricane Rita U.S.U.S. Sept.Sept. 1010 16,00016,000

Hurricane StanHurricane Stan Middle AmericaMiddle America Oct.Oct. 840840 3,0003,000

Hurricane WilmaHurricane Wilma Mexico, U.S.Mexico, U.S.CaribbeanCaribbean

Oct.Oct. 4242 18,00018,000


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October-Nove ber 1998 Heavy Rains (Texas)

Number of Paid FEMA Losses: 4,678 Total FEMA Claims Paid: 76,257,393 (16,301 per claim)

Severe Flooding from 2 Heavy Rain Events

Approxi ately 1.0 (1.1 adj 2002) Billion in da age

31 Deaths (NCDC Storm Data) - CDC Web Page 29 Deaths with 22 from vehicles driven into high water


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http://floodsafety.com/media/pdfs/texas/October98.pdf


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Northern Plains Flooding April/May 1997

(Snowmelt and Icepack Buildup)

NCDC Storm Data:

Approximately 3.7 (4.1 adjusted to 2002) billion in damage/costs

11 deaths

FEMA NFIP Number of Paid Losses =7,272

FEMA NFIP Total Losses Paid

158,401,726 Dollars ($21,782 per claim)

The important factors that set the stage for potential significantflooding of the Red River and its tributaries during April 1997

Greatly enhanced snowfall during the winter

Substantial buildup of river ice throughout the northern halfof the Red River.

A highly unfavorable March-April 1997 thaw in the RedRiver Basin

These conditions resulted from a series of major

cold-air outbreaks and winter storms from

September1996 to April 1997. During this period

more than 200% of normal snowfall was

observed over most of North Dakota, western

Minnesota and northeastern South Dakota, with125%-200%of normal snow covering the

remainder of the upper Midwest, the northern

Plains, Montana and most of Wyoming


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Where Can You Receive River Forecasts and Flood

Information?

http://www.weather.gov/ahps/


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Forecast Dissemination and Data Delivery Organizational Structure

Office of Hydrologic Development

Office of Science and Technology

Office of Operational Systems

Office of Climate, Weather, Water, andWeather Services (OCCWS) Divisions

National Weather ServiceHeadquarters

Develops and aintains Hydrologic/Hydro eteorologic odels, syste sand procedures to eet require ents

set by OCCWS HSD

Maintains the Hydro eteorologicalAuto ated Data Syste (HADS)

The Meteorological Develop ent Lab(MDL) within OST develops WFOapplications used to produce selected

watch/warning/advisory products

MDL supports MOS software whichprovides te perature forecast

guidance used as input to RFChydrologic odels

NCEP Facilities

Hydro eteorological Prediction Center(HPC)

Produces gridded and probabilistic QPF with other

hydromet products on a national basis.

Environ ental Monitoring Center(EMC)

Develops, maintains, and improves atmospheric

models used in short/medium term AHPS products

Cli ate Prediction Center(CPC)

Products define how precipitation deviates fromclimatic norms for the long-term forecast period

Stor Prediction Center(SPC)

Event-based, short-term precipitation rate forecasts

Tropical Prediction Center(TPC)

Produces forecasts for tropical weather systems

NWS Regional Headquarters

Regional Director is f irst-line supervisor of regionalhydrologic division chief, RFC Hydrologists In Charge(HIC), and WFO Meteorologists In Charge (MIC).Assigns hydrology program responsibilities of the region

Responsible for full spectrum of hydrologic program:data delivery, product generation, service assessment,and product improvement

(13)NWS River ForecastCenters

(122)NWS WeatherForecast Offices (WFO)

National Operational

Hydrologic Re oteSensing Center

Produces ainste river floodforecasts and warnings

Provides precipitation QA/QC

Hydrologic Model Develop ent

and Maintenance

Produces flash flood andselected river flood forecastsand warnings

Provides precipitation forecasts

Service Hydrologist is publicand partner interface for

hydrologic observation network


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For the U.S., the 13 RiverForecast Centers (RFC) prepare

mainstem river forecast andwarning products

The WFOs

a) Produce flash flood watches andwarnings

b) Disseminate the RFC river

products for their respectiveHydrologic Service Area

c) Coordinate the hydrologicobserving network with localpartners and agencies (USGS,Corps ofEngineers,etc.)


36/50

Product Identifier Source Description

Flood Potential

Outlook

___ESF___

(example)WFO

This product is issued when conditions indicate that significantly heavyprecipitation will cause or aggravate flooding. It is issued with a 36-houror greater lead time. It includes:

Area affected Time frames Discussion of hydrologic and meteorological factors and conditions Information on projected watches and warnings

Excessive RainOutlook

NMCGPH94E NCEP

This product is issued when conditions indicate that significantly heavyprecipitation will cause or aggravate flooding. It is issued with a 36-houror greater lead time. It includes:

Area affected Time frames Discussion of hydrologic and meteorological factors and conditions Information on projected watches and warning

Extended Strea flow, Flood and Precipitation Outlooks (Situational Awareness)

www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml


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FGUS74 KSHV 091806ESFSHVARC027-057-061-073-081-091-099-133-139-LAC013-015-017-021-027-031-043-049-059-061-069-073-081-085-111-119-127-OKC089-TXC005-037-063-067-073-159-183-203-315-343-347-365-387-401-403-405-419-423-449-459-499-102359-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 1206 PM CST FRI MAR 9 2007

...ANNUAL SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

...BELOW AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THIS SPRING...

IN THE WAKE OF THE WET DECEMBER OF 2006 AND JANUARY OF 2007 THAT RESULTED INWIDESPREAD...ALBEIT MINOR FLOODING...HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS DRIED MARKEDLY DURINGFEBRUARY AND THROUGH THE FIRST THIRD OF THIS MARCH. DROUGHT CONDITIONSENDED

DURING JANUARY AS THE BOUNTIFUL RAINS REFILLED LAKES AND RESERVOIRS AND BROUGHTRIVERS AND BAYOUS TO SEASONABLE STAGES AND DISCHARGES.

ALL RESERVOIRS REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THEIR RESPECTIVECONSERVATION POOLSTAGES ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERNLOUISIANA. AREA RIVERS AND BAYOUS RECEDED MARKEDLY DURING A DRIER THAN USUALFEBRUARY WITH VIRTUALLY NO RAINFALL THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF THIS MARCH.STREAMFLOWS AND STAGES ACROSS THE SHREVEPORT HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA) RECEDEDTO NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL BY THEEND OF FEBRUARY AND CONTINUED TO SLOWLY

RECEDETHROUGH THIS FIRST THIRD OF MARCH.

SOIL MOISTURECONDITIONS CONTINUED TO DRY DURING FEBRUARY AND THIS MARCH WITHINCIPIENT DROUGHT (CLASS D0 ON THE INTERNET DROUGHT MONITOR) ONCE AGAIN KNOCKINGON OUR CLIMATEDOOR WITH THIS PAST WEEKS ISSUANCE. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALLFORECAST DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD RECHARGE ANTECEDENT SOILMOISTURE SOMEWHAT...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER SYSTEM SHOULD SPREAD SOMELIGHT TO MODERATERAINFALL DURING THEEND OF NEXT WEEK. THE LONG RANGE OUTLOOKSUPPORTS EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL...BUT THE GENERAL

PATTERN APPEARS UNFAVORABLE FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.


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http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

Quantitative Precipitation

Forecast (QPF)- Day 1

For a 24 Hour Period

ending either 12 UTC or 00

UTC


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Flood Watch

___FFA___

(example) WFO

Used to inform cooperating agencies & the public about the threat of flooding. It covers

precipitation, snow/ice melt, & dam break conditions. It Includes:

Area affected

Time frames

Conditions Extent of hazardous conditions possible

Potential severity

Call-to-action statement

Watches

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/92fwbgusa.gif


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WGUS66 KSEW 122350

FFASEW

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

FLOOD WATCH

NATIONALWEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA450 PM PDT MON MAR12 2007

WAC033-045-053-057-061-073-130800- /O.EXT.KSEW.FA.A.0003.000000T0000Z-070313T1300Z/

/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

KING-MASON-PIERCE-SKAGIT-SNOHOMISH-WHATCOM-

450 PM PDT MON MAR12 2007

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR

PORTIONSOFNORTHWEST WASHINGTON AND WEST CENTRALWASHINGTON...

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN NORTHWEST WASHINGTON... SKAGIT AND

WHATCOM. IN WEST CENTRALWASHINGTON...KING... MASON...PIERCE...SNOHOMISH

* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* HEAVY RAIN THAT FELL SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING DROVE SEVERALRIVERS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. THE HEADWATERS OF RIVERS FLOWINGOFFTHE

CASCADES WILLRAPIDLY RECEDE TODAY...AND CRESTS WILLMOVE DOWNSTREAM.

AS THE CREST MOVES DOWNSTREAM...MINORFLOODING IS STILLPOSSIBLE IN THE

COUNTIES UNDER THIS FLOOD WATCH...ESPECIALLY WHERE RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY

EXPECTED TO COME CLOSE TOFLOOD STAGE AND WHERE SMALLER STREAMS AND

RIVERS DRAIN INTO THE LARGER RIVERS UNDER A FLOOD WARNING.

AFLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT CERTAIN. BE READY

TO

ACT QUICKL

Y IF

THE NATIO

NAL

WEATHER SERVICE ISSUES AFLOO

D WARNING.

Area affected

Call-to-actionstatement

Time frames

Conditions

Extent of hazardous

conditions possible

Potential severity


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Flood Statement___FLS___

(example)WFO

This product is issued to update and expand the information in a FloodWarning (FLW, see below).

The Flood Statement may be used in lieu of a warning if flooding isforecast, imminent, or existing and presents no threat to life orproperty. The statement is used also to terminate a FloodWarning.

River Statement ___RVS___ WFO

This product provides daily river stage forecasts and/or informationabout ice jams and ice movement that does not warrant a FloodWarning or a Flood Statement.

It is used also to communicate conditions such as low flows, chemicalspills, etc.

River IceStatement

___RVI___ WFOThis product can contain numeric and/or narrative information on river

ice conditions.

State ents


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Flood Warning___FLW___

(example)WFO

This product normally specifies crest information and is issuedfor specific communities or areas along rivers whereflooding has been forecast, is imminent, or is in progress.

Advisories/Warnings

WGUS43KDVN 130130

FLWDVN

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

FLOOD WARNING

NATIONALWEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL

830 PM CDT MON MAR12 2007

...THE NATIONALWEATHER SERVICE IN QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING

RIVERS...ROCK RIVER...IN ILLINOIS...

AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN ILLINOIS...HENRY...ROCK ISLAND... WHITESIDE

AN ICE JAM CAUSED WATERLEVELS ON THE ROCK RIVER UPSTREAM OF THE HIGHWAY 84 BRIDGE RISE

SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY. THIS ICE JAM HAS NOW BROKEN...BUT WATERLEVELS REMAIN HIGH AND WILLTAKE

SEVERALMORE HOURS TO RECEDE. THUS...A FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ROCK RIVER AT JOSLIN.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/QUADCITIES (ALLLOWER CASE).


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WGUS44 KEWX 121939

FLWEWX

TXC021-130554-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

FLOOD WARNING...CORRECTED

NATIONALWEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

240 PM CDT MON MAR12 2007

...THE NATIONALWEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A RIVERFLOOD WARNING FOR THE BIG SANDY CREEK EAST OF

EGLIN...

THE BIG SANDY CREEK EAST OF EGLIN...

AT NOON MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.0FEET.MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND IS FORECAST.

FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0FEET.

FORECAST...RISE TOAROUND 18.0FEET THIS AFTERNOON.

AT 16.0FEET MODERATE LOWLAND FLOODING CAN CUT OFFAND DROWN LIVESTOCK IN THE FLOOD

PLAIN. LOWEST ROADS AND BRIDGES ARE FLOODED AND DANGEROUS.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ADDITIONALRAINFALLWILLCHANGE RIVERFORECAST LEVELS.


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HydrometeorologicalDiscussion

___HMD___(example)

RFCs

This product summarizes the current hydrometeorologicalsituation, general trends of the RFC's hydrologic forecasts,and flood potential for the entire RFC area. The types ofconditions monitored include:

Areas where Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPFs)indicate significant potential for rainfall causing runoff

Rivers that are already above flood stage

Areas where soil moisture is above normal due to recentexcessive rainfall

Areas covered by a significant snowpack that could readilymelt in changing meteorological conditions such as a rain-on-snow event or a heat wave

Areas where frozen ground could generate dangerousrunoff with moderate rainfall

Areas where ice jam breakups could potentially producebackwater flooding or dam-break-like flood conditions

Discussions


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Fatality Trends and Multi-Agency Education Programs


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20052005 42/20**

20042004 79/51

20032003 99/47

20022002 50/31

20012001 66/31

20002000 41/20

19991999 77/40

19981998 136/86

19971997 98

http://www.weather.gov/oh/hic/flood_stats/recent_individual_deaths.shtml

All vehicle-related fatalities are

shown in red.

Flood Fatalities

Water weighs 62.4 lbs. per cubic foot and typically flows downstream at 6 to 12 mph.

For each foot water rises, 500 lbs. of lateral force are applied to the car.

But the biggest factor is BUOYANCY

For each foot that water rises up the side of the car, the car displaces 1500 lbs. of water

Two feet of water will carry away most automobiles


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http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/water/tadd/


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HYDROMETEOROLOGY VISION

Flash Floodin

Hail>2 in.

Wind Gusts>50kts


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FEMA/NOAA Aerial Photos


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Suzanne Van Cooten, Ph.D.

NOAA/NSSL Research [email protected]

(405) 325-6477

Thank ou. Now any Questions and Co ents

With proven technologies and emerging science wecan achieve an Integrated Water Prediction and

Management Systemits time is nowits too late forlater

Floods: the Awesome Power (Suzanne Van Cooten, Ph.D)

Documents

Transcript of Floods: the Awesome Power (Suzanne Van Cooten, Ph.D)