Flood Modeling In The Cloud:Can it be a revolutionary cloudburst for flood analysis?

Paul RobinsonWater Resources

ManagerPaul.Robinson@ch

2m.comDr Jon Wicks

Technical DirectorFlood Modeller

jon.wicks@ch2m.com

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CLOUDBURST

A cloudburst is an extreme amount of precipitation in a short period of time, sometimes accompanied by hail and thunder, that is capable of creating flood conditions.

The term "cloudburst" arose from the notion that clouds were akin to water balloons and could burst, resulting in rapid precipitation.

Swedish term "skyfall"

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Content

• What is Cloud computing?

• How can it help me?

– Improve flood models

– Run more scenarios to enable better decisions

– Improve understanding of model confidence

– Access superior modelling power to help beat project deadlines

• What are the key benefits and issues?

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Cloud Computing – What are we talking about?

• Using a network of remote servers hosted on the Internet to store, manage, and process data, rather than a local server or a personal computer

• Generic services:

• Amazon Web Services

• Microsoft Azure

• Intermediary services

• Parallel Works

• Flood/Water Specific

• DHI SaaS Portal

• .

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Applying innovation to meet the needs of flood management

Advances in IT

Fast delivery & efficiency savings

Richer flood information

neededFlood Modeling

In The Cloud

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Which software can I use?Services off the shelf:

• MIKE by DHI SaaS – broad range of solvers

• Flood Cloud

• Flood Modeller Pro 1D, 2D, 1D-2D Linked

• Flood Modeller (1D)-TUFLOW (2D)

• TUFLOW (Coming soon)

• HEC-RAS (Planned for future update)

Others in project specific settings using generic services:

• HEC-RAS

• HEC-FDA

• CityCat

• Others?

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How to use a Cloud service for flood modelling – an exampleUser actions:

1. Set up your simulations as normal

2. ‘Click’ to run on the cloud

3. View/process results on your computer

What is actually happening:

• Automation to:

– Package input data into zip file

– Upload to cloud control server

– Distribute data and solvers to cloud resources

– Start runs, provide feedback and download results to local computer

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An example

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An example

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An example

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An example

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An example

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An example

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An example

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An example

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An example

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When would you use the Cloud

Examples:

• Using the Cloud to improve flood models

• Running more scenarios to enable better decisions

• Improving understanding of model confidence

• Superior modelling power to help beat project deadlines

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Using the Cloud to improve flood models

• More calibration runs

• More validation runs

• Combined hydrology/hydraulics

• Optimisation of parameters

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Running more scenarios to enable better decisions

Multiple scenarios can be run faster in the cloud, i.e. the run time is the same no matter how many you run

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Richer results to enable better decisions • Traditional ‘binary’ single

return period flood map

• Truer picture of flood risk

• Spatially varying probability of flooding

• Spatially varying impacts (£,$, risk to life)

• Flood durations

• Risk attributed to defences

• Multiple sources

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Improving understanding of model confidence

• Quantify the spatially varying confidence

• Sensitivity runs

• Monte Carlo sampling approach

• Full probabilistic analysis including defence breaches

Hydrology- Peak- shape- timing

Floodplain DTM

Channel geometry

Floodplain roughness Channel

roughness

Flood defences

In-river structures

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Unleash modeling power to help beat project deadlines

• Continual need to deliver on improved flood risk management

• Do things better and faster

• More data, bigger models, more outputs

• The Cloud makes it easier

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Key Benefits and IssuesBenefits Of The Cloud Issues to ConsiderFlexible and scalable to projectneeds

Building models is still a standalone exercise

Enables you to do more Debugging is still a standalone exercise

Cost effective compared to costs of setting up and maintaining a cluster of workstations

Need a careful plan for managing the huge volumes of files and data

• Selectivity in variables you save• Do you need to keep full time-series

results?Can free up existing standalone software licenses

Tends to need standard versions of software – harder to deploy project specific productivity add-ons… so far

Secure and typically more reliable

File security policies – some organizations may have strict policies on host locations

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Other sectors using these concepts

• Climate modeling

• Manufacturing – testing designs virtually to identify issues before production

• Medical & Pharmaceutical virtual testing

• Other sectors looking to speed up testing, modeling and scenario evaluations that were limited in the past by machine and software availability.

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What could be next?

• Increasingly streamlining services – to make them easy and intuitive to use

• Being able to access better computing resources than on your desk.

• Greater connectivity with post simulation tools – being able push to web, or dashboards etc.

• Making it easy to set up mass scenarios – potential for “auto-calibration” monte-carlo style.

• Dashboard control of “What-if” scenarios being defined by authorized stakeholders, run in the cloud, then results returned to dashboard.

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Weather forecast

Model setup

Cloud simulations

Sensitivity tests

Post-processing

Stakeholder dashboards

Public warnings

What could be next?

• Automated workflows for multi-agency emergency responses?

• As ever though… We must think before we model!

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Transforming the way you model www.floodmodeller.com/floodcloud

Thank You – Questions?

Upcoming webinar – ”Integrating HEC-RAS flood models within Flood Modeller Pro”: www.floodmodeller.com/webinar