Flood Early Warning System in Pakistan
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Transcript of Flood Early Warning System in Pakistan
Analyzing the shortcomings of Flood Early warning system in Pakistan
04/13/23
Students:Dawood JanIsmail KhanKiramat Ullah
Department of Civil EngineeringGandhara Institute of Science and Technology PeshawarPeshawar
Supervised By: Dr. Khurram Shehzad
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Introduction Problem statement Objective Literature review Findings of Literature Review Task accomplished On going task Timeline References
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Overflow or inundation from water body causes flood. Inundations may caused due to:▪ High rainfall▪ Snow melting▪ Failure of Dam/reservoir▪ Tsunamis
Pakistan faced 150 major disasters since 1947 in which most are floods
In July 2010 Flood, about 20 million Pakistanis affected
Inundates an area of 100,000 sq-km
2000 casualties has been recorded.[1]
Overall loss of US $ 10.05 Billions
Implementation of effective flood early warning system may save lives
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Poor early warning system for floods may increase in the damages of
the livelihoods and infrastructures.
Poor flood forecasting is also the cause of disastrous affects on the
peoples at risk.
Poor warnings may increase the post flood cost in case of urban floods.
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To investigate the shortcomings of flood
forecasting
To investigate the shortcomings of
communication of flood warning
To investigate the shortcomings of mechanism
of flood preparedness
Suggest the set of actions to enhance the
effectiveness of flood early warning system in
Pakistan04/13/23 5
APPROACH EMPLOYED FOR ISSUE OF FLOOD FORECASTS:
Collection of hydrological and meteorological data
Transmission/Communication of data to the forecasting Centres
Analysis of data and formulation of forecasts
Dissemination of forecasts and warning to the concerned Authorities of the State. Police Stations
District management group
45 PMD observatories are employed in the system, Map Attached:
Models Used By PMD for FEWS are:
Rainfall-Runoff Model SAMO
Routing Model SOBEK
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Continued….
SAMO (Sacramento) is a Rainfall-Runoff Model which conforms important phenomenon of hydrological cycle such as: Rainfall Evaporation Infiltration and Base flow
It has a small computational time interval and can analysis a watershed which has been divided into several smaller parts, each having its own parameter set of: Evaporation rate Rainfall
The rainfall of past 24 hours, recorded through telemetric stations Meteorological observatories Radar observations
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Literature ReviewAccomplished task Continued….
SOBEK include morphology of main rivers and characteristics of hydraulic structure
It is developed using: Physical description of the geometry of rivers, Continuity equation Balance of forces governing the flow of water in open channels.
It can properly represent the influence of: Bridges Barrages Dams Propagation of flood waves.
SOBEK is used to predict: Water level Discharges Extent of flooding along a river reach.
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Accomplished task
Literature ReviewContinued….
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Following are the shortcomings in the Flood forecasting:
Rainfall runoff and routing of Kabul River is not incorporated in
the Flood Early Warning System Model
The catchments of FEWS Model also do not tally with the radar’s
catchments
Tributaries which have been incorporated in the FEWS Model are
not gauged with respect to level/discharge
The resolution of this radar images is very low and radar data is
not calibrated
There are no upper-air observation stations in northern
mountainous area
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Source: Floods-2010 causes, management & damages member (water)
The comparison of Actual and Forecasted Discharge at Tarbela
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Source: Floods-2010 causes, management & damages member (water)
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Source: Floods-2010 causes, management & damages member (water)
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Literature Review
Data Collection
Visits and meetings
Flood Forecasting Division Lahore
Department of Hydrology WAPDA
Pakistan Meteorology Department Lahore
PMD Regional office Peshawar
First objective which was error analysis of flood
forecasting
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Shortcomings in communication of FF
System in Pakistan
Shortcomings of mechanism of flood
preparedness
Actions and corresponding resource
requirements for enhancement of
effectiveness of FEWS in Pakistan04/13/23 17
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1. Mission report (nov-2010) WMO fact-finding & needs-assessment mission
to Pakistan, “review of severe flooding situation” art. 4.1 page 12.
2. Mission report (nov-2010) WMO fact-finding & needs-assessment mission
to Pakistan, “PMD forecasting and warning services” page 04.
3. Floods-2010 causes, management & damages member (water)
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