Floating Wind Global Markets...2020/07/10 · Floating Wind –Global Markets Intro Norway Europe...

Floating Wind – Global Markets

Intro Europe Americas Asia ConclusionNorwayIntro Europe Americas Asia ConclusionNorway


Webinar

Kincardine Windfloat assembly at Fene, Spain. © Navantia

Vasilis Markatselis, Market Researcher (Floating Specialist)[email protected]

24/6/2020



4C Offshore

2

STANDARDISED SUBSCRIPTIONS• Offshore Wind Farm• Subsea Cables• Offshore Logistics• Construction & Maintenance Intelligence

CONSULTING SERVICES

Intro



Floating Wind: Near-term Outlook to 2022

3

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Inst

alle

d C

apac

ity

(MW

)

Three-fold increase in capacity installed/under-way offshore by 2022Floating capacity, 2009-2022

Ireland

South Korea

Maine (USA)

Spain

China

Portugal

Japan

United Kingdom

Norway

France

27%

24%19%

10%

6%

6%

3% 2%

2022: Floating wind market share by countryFloating capacity by end-2022

430 MW

Intro



4

Norway

4

Opening of Offshore Areas

Q1 2020: Norwegian Offshore Wind Cluster requests faster government action to promote offshore wind policy, including:

Industry-oriented policy, geared toward enabling a full supply chain and including a sector deal similar to that in the UK.

Clarification on licensing and framework conditions for two proposed areas by this Summer, and a call for proposals (i.e. site auction) for two full scale (500 MW) floating projects in order for concessions to be granted next year.

Parliament has requested that government devise a study and possible financing models for floating wind, with a deadline of October 2020 (for the state budget for 2021).

Post-COVID-19 financial proposals presented by the Norwegian government in end-May include: NOK 2bn (€ 187m) to Enova, a government owned innovation fund, to support green technology development

(i.e. hydrogen, battery technology, offshore wind and green shipping); NOK 15m (€ 1.4m) will go toward a new environmentally friendly energy research centre focused on the

challenges of offshore wind; NOK 10m (~ € 1m) to a project led by Norsk Industri, aiming to identify and establish supply chains and delivery

models adapted to the offshore wind market.

In June 2020, two areas opened for both fixed-bottom and floating projects: Utsira North (Utsira Nord) [1.5 GW]: floating area (>100m depth) Southern North Area II (Sørlige Nordsjø II) [3 GW]: fixed-bottom and floating (>40m depth)

The ministry had also suggested opening the Sandskallen-Sørøya Nord, but this was faced with resistance from fisheries.

Norway



European Floating Wind Outlook (MW)

5

United Kingdom

ScotWind: 1st Round: <= 10 GW (70% of sites suitable for floating, i.e. >60m)Developers will be awarded up < 8,600 km2, allowing for site attritionSites will need planning consent before installation can begin

AR4- CfD: 96 MW: Erebus (Total & Simply Blue Energy);(potential 10 MW: Dounreay Tri (Hexicon); candidates) 32 MW: ‘repurposed’ Wave Hub (Wave Hub and Cornwall Council);

180 MW: Pembrokeshire Development Zone (Wave Hub and Cornwall Council).

France

4 pilot arrays (2015 auction) ~100 MW

Commercial tenders: 2021 (250 MW)2023 (2 x 250 MW)post-2024 (250-500 MW per year)

Spain

The updated NCEP 2021-2030 set an ambitious offshore wind target (approx. 12 GW by 2030). But no specific floating wind target.

The Canarias Islands have set a 310 MW target for 2025.

Portugal

Targets an installed capacity of 300 MW by 2030.

Emerging European markets:

Italy: proposed development of a 250 MW project off the coast of Sicily.

Ireland: AFLOWT (~6 MW)-demonstration project; post-2030: Inis Ealga (720 MW)

Greece: potential 2021/22 floating wind auction (250 MW) for 1-2 small-scale project(s).

Europe



Americas Floating Wind Outlook (MW)

6

California

14 consortia submitted their interest on BOEM’s Call for Information and Nominations (2019)

North Coast: Humboldt Bay (>10 m/s @ 100m)

Central Coast: Morro Bay & Diablo Canyon (7-10 m/s @ 100 m )

But, the Department of Defense (DoD) opposed to any developments off the Central Coast.

New proposed areas within and to the North and South of the Morro Bay Call Area.

First auction in 2021.

Offshore Wind California coalition seeks 10 GW of floating wind by 2040.

Maine

First U.S. state to legislate for floating wind (2010).

New governor favours offshore wind and ordered Maine’s PUC to approvethe PPA for the 10 MW VolturnUS demonstrator.

Maine Aqua Ventus expressed interest in developing a commercial-scale project (400-500 MW), post-2025.

Hawaii

800 MW by 2045 (carbon neutrality goal under the Bill HB 2182).

The Hawaiian Electric Company (HECO) targets 200 MW by 2030.

BOEM works with the DoD to identify potential lease areas different from the proposed in 2015.

America



Asian Floating Wind Outlook (MW)

7

South Korea

The Renewable Energy 3020 (RE3020) Implementation Plan, adopted 2018, targets 2GW by 2030.

Three south and southeast provinces (Ulsan, Busan, and Gyeongsang) have proposed just over 3 GW of floating wind by 2030.

Japan

Floating wind pioneer in Asia – 5 different floating units have already develop

The first area to be auctioned (end-June, 2020) under the General Sea Act is floating, and will select a small-scale project (~21 MW).

Attractive FiT of JPY 36/kWh (~EUR 300/MWh).

Taiwan

No specific mid- or long-term floating wind targets.

Limited shallow water regions on the west coast. East coast bathymetry only suitable for floating wind.

China

No transparent floating wind target

Provinces with deep water regions (e.g. Qingdao) have expressed interest in floating wind projects.

First floating 5.5 MW demonstrator to enter operations in 2022.

Asia



4.7 GW

2.6 GW

1.6 GWEurope

Asia

North America

Europe to lead in 2030

8.9 GW

Conclusion

8

SUMMARY

Europe will maintain its lead in floating wind in 2030, building on its existing fixed-bottom experience.

Norway has large ambitions, but work needs to be completed (visible tenders and revenue scheme).

France has good visibility, with auctions scheduled.

UK will remain the European leader until 2022, when the four French projects and Hywind Tampen (Norway) enter operations.

Portugal and Spain are two emerging markets with potential post-2025. Both are developing legislative frameworks.

California gathers interest in developing large-scale floating projects in the U.S.A.

South Korea is the only Asian country with an explicit mid-term floating wind target. Japan will follow South Korea later in this decade.

CONCLUSIONS

Floating wind has the potential for large-scale deployment towards the end of this decade, supporting the global energy transition.

Semi-submersible concepts are excepted to dominate the global floating wind market (see bar graph).

Close to 900 floating foundations will be required by 2030 (see right donut chart).

Work is in progress to create a global pipeline of commercial projects post-2025

Further R&D activities are needed to de-risk the technology (e.g. floating structure, cables, mooring lines) and further reduce costs.

Conclusion

394

340

155

Foundation demand to reach 900 units by 2030

6 916

41

22

30

151144

165

75

146

70

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Not Decided TLP Spar Floater

Barge Semi-Submersible Spar

Semi-sub concepts prove most popular

0

5

10

15

2021

889 units


Intro Europe Americas Asia ConclusionNorwayIntro Europe Americas Asia ConclusionNorwayOur accreditations

THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR YOUR ATTENTION

Floating Wind Global Markets...2020/07/10 · Floating Wind –Global Markets Intro Norway Europe...

Documents

Transcript of Floating Wind Global Markets...2020/07/10 · Floating Wind –Global Markets Intro Norway Europe...