Flightsayer - Making air travel smarter
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Transcript of Flightsayer - Making air travel smarter
© 2016 Resilient Ops, Inc.
making air travel smarter
V4.1 rev.12/2016
© 2016 Resilient Ops, Inc. 2
Passengers today have multiple options to track and react to flight delays, but few that help proactively avoid them
“Where’s my flight? What’s the latest status?” “Will my flight be delayed and do I have options?”
Live tracking and historical stats Predictive analytics
© 2016 Resilient Ops, Inc. 3
flightsayer: Helping passengers make informed decisions
What passengers need What is currently available
Historical delay stats by flight; inadequate because delays in past 2 months are not indicative of delays over the next 2 months & not all flights have sufficient history
Real-time updates from airlines & third-party apps; not useful informing passengers after the flight has been delayed, by which time it is often too late to avoid it
The flightsayer difference
flightsayer synthesizes weather, historical and seasonal trends, differences by airline, airport, etc. to estimate true delay risk
flightsayer continuously monitors the weather, airport conditions, & flight status, and issues predictive alerts 16+ hours before departure, and even suggests alternatives
Before booking
After booking
I need to make a 10am meeting in New York next
Monday. Which flight should I take?
I’m on tomorrow’s 8am flight to JFK. Will my flight arrive on time?
© 2016 Resilient Ops, Inc. 4
Our sophisticated algorithms sift through vast and complex data to identify patterns that forecast future delays
Proprietary algorithms
Input: Various factors including weather, flight status, airspace constraints & flight connectivity
Output: estimated delay likelihood for all US flights hours
to months before departure
© 2016 Resilient Ops, Inc. 5
flightsayer ranks flight delay risk on a 1—10 scaleDelay risk depends on the likelihood and duration of delay
DELAY INDEX
1LOW RISK
DELAY INDEX
2LOW RISK
DELAY INDEX
3LOW RISK
DELAY INDEX
4MED RISK
DELAY INDEX
5MED RISK
DELAY INDEX
6HIGH RISK
DELAY INDEX
7HIGH RISK
DELAY INDEX
8HIGH RISK
DELAY INDEX
9SEVERE RISK
DELAY INDEX
10SEVERE RISK
flightsayer delay risk
Before booking Book a flight with lower risk if possible Avoid booking these flights if you can
After booking Relax, we’re keeping an eye on it for you
Get ready to change plans
Rebook if possible
Rebook NOW!
Low likelihood and short delays
High likelihood and long delays
© 2016 Resilient Ops, Inc. 6
An example: LaGuardia to Fort Lauderdale on Oct 28th, 2016 (I)
Flight may be delayed because of a late incoming flight and departure constraints at LGA
Find alternatives
JetBlue 1371 @ 9:41 pm LGA FLL
9:30a 9:30a
JetBlue 1201JFK FLL7:53p
JetBlue 553JFK PBI8:03p
United 711EWR FLL8:45p
Passenger gets a delay alert 12 hours before
departure, saying flight has
a high risk of delay
Passenger books the
9:41pm flight from LGA to FLL,
and tells flightsayer to
start monitoring the flight
1 2
Passenger works with ticket
provider to rebook on one of
the options
flightsayer recommends 3
alternatives, including flights to/from nearby
airports
3 4
DELAY INDEX
6HIGH RISK
DELAY INDEX
1LOW RISK
DELAY INDEX
1LOW RISK
DELAY INDEX
1LOW RISK
© 2016 Resilient Ops, Inc. 7
An example: LaGuardia to Fort Lauderdale on Oct 28th, 2016 (II)
Flight may be delayed because of a late incoming flight and departure constraints at LGA
Find alternatives
JetBlue 1371 @ 9:41 pm LGA FLL
9:30a 9:30a
JetBlue 1201JFK FLL7:53p
JetBlue 553JFK PBI8:03p
United 711EWR FLL8:45p
DELAY INDEX
6HIGH RISK
DELAY INDEX
1LOW RISK
DELAY INDEX
1LOW RISK
DELAY INDEX
1LOW RISK
Greater productivity
Lower costs by avoiding last-minute rebooking and rescheduling
Higher passenger morale
How much is two hours of your customer’s / employee’s time worth?
Delayed 2½ hours Delayed 49 min
Delayed 1 min
On time
© 2016 Resilient Ops, Inc. 8
Accuracy twelve hours out: Helping passengers proactively avoid delaysPredicted risk vs. actual delays for all domestic US flights Nov-Dec 2016
5% 12%23% 29%
41% 43%52% 50%
63%
89%
13 2647 60 81 81 96 105
132
263
Predicted risk 12 hours out
% flights delayed 60+ minutes on
arrival
Average arrival delay (minutes) • Predictions can be used to
drive better rebooking decisions the previous day or morning of travel, especially if alternative airports exist
• Flights with a risk of 5 or greater experience an average delay of more than 1 hour
How to read this chart: flights with a score of 9 twelve hours before departure had an average delay of 132 minutes and were delayed by 60+ minutes 63% of the time.
10x
© 2016 Resilient Ops, Inc. 9
Accuracy three days out: Helping passengers book & rebook proactivelyPredicted risk vs. actual delays for all domestic US flights Nov-Dec 2016
4%11%
22%
37%48%
58%
1025
49
87117
172
Predicted risk 3 days out
% flights delayed 60+ minutes on
arrival
Average arrival delay (minutes)
• Predictions can be used to make better booking/ rebooking decisions, especially when faced with major delay events (e.g., snowstorms)
• Flights with a risk of 4-5 are ~10x more likely to be significantly delayed than those with a risk of 1
Predictions 3 days out rarely have a delay risk greater than 610x
© 2016 Resilient Ops, Inc. 10
Accuracy four weeks out: Helping passengers book better flightsPredicted risk vs. actual delays for domestic US flights Nov-Dec 2016 on selected segments
7%
16%
29%
5%11%
31%
15
2936
1324
58
Predicted risk 4 weeks out
% flights delayed 60+ minutes on
arrival
Average arrival delay (minutes)
New York – Chicago(incl. nearby airports)
Predictions 4 weeks out
rarely have a delay risk
greater than 3
Los Angeles – San Francisco(incl. nearby airports)
• Predictions can be used to choose better flights (predictions account for differences by airport, airline, time of day, etc.)
• On two of the country’s busiest routes, flights with a risk of 3 are 4-6 times as likely to be significantly delayed than flights with a risk of 1
4x 6x
© 2016 Resilient Ops, Inc. 11
Our Beta users are already seeing value…
“This tool is amazing! It has already saved the day for my team once.
We were able to switch to a better flight because of the warnings and
saved hours of headache.”
- User at global consulting firm after
using flightsayer for just one day
© 2016 Resilient Ops, Inc. 12
Bala ChandranOptimization geek, graduate school research in optimizing air traffic flows and predicting airspace congestion, former operations consultant
Hamsa BalakrishnanMIT professor working on ways to improve airspace efficiency, working closely with the FAA, airports, and airlines to drive operational improvements
Loren WernerStats and modeling guru, former operations consultant, developed probabilistic risk models for healthcare, marketing, and financial services
Diana PfeilMachine learning and airspace weather buff, PhD thesis on impact of weather on airspace capacity, worked on big data at Amazon before it was cool
Powerful technology you can rely on, developed by a team of expertsCompany has received two NASA SBIR grants to develop algorithms for air traffic optimization
Michael JacquesBusiness development warrior, 30+ years in the travel industry working with companies ranging from startups to Fortune 500 companies
© 2016 Resilient Ops, Inc. 13
Work with us
We are looking for business partners, especially in corporate travel
• We will work with you to conduct a low-overhead pilot to validate the value of our predictions to you
and your employees/customers
• License our API for integration into your travel application when you’re ready to scale
• Predictions are available only for domestic US flights; Canada and Europe are in the pipeline
www.flightsayer.com