Flightglobal Fleet Forecast - International Federation .The 2015 Flightglobal Fleet Forecast...

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  • FlightglobalFleet Forecast2015 2034

    Independent outlook of theglobal commercial passengerand freighter aircraft market


  • ascendworldwide.com


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    The 2015 Flightglobal Fleet Forecast estimates that some 40,955 new commercial jet and turboprop aircraft will be delivered into passenger and freighter airline service between 2015 and 2034. In addition to those new deliveries, a further 1,950 passenger aircraft are expected to be converted to freighter use over the 20-year period of the forecast.

    The total value of these new deliveries, estimated using Ascends 2015 Base Full-Life Values, is expected to total around $2,830 billion. Base Values are used to estimate future delivery values since in our view these are a more pragmatic estimation of actual business values than the inflated manufacturer list prices often used in other forecasts.

    Around 16,750 passenger jets and 2,380 passenger turboprops are expected to be removed from passenger service, with around 1,540 of the former and 415 of the latter converted to freighter service. A small minority of the remaining aircraft may be converted to other non-commercial roles, but the vast majority of the remainder is expected to be dismantled for spare parts which will support the remaining in-service fleet. Some 1,860 freighters will also be retired and in total, 71% of the current passenger and freighter fleet will be retired during the next 20 years.

    The global commercial aircraft fleet in service is expected to increase by 82% to 48,760 aircraft in 2034 including 40,940 passenger jets, 4,220 passenger turboprops and 3,600 commercial freighter aircraft. By then, 40% of the fleet are

    expected to be operating in Asia-Pacific and China, where continued higher-than-average passenger traffic growth rates (of 5% and 8% respectively) will see those regions remain the key drivers for growth and new aircraft demand in the next 20 years.

    Airbus and Boeing are expected to remain the two largest commercial aircraft original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), between them delivering an estimated 85% by value of the worlds commercial jet aircraft through 2034. However, Bombardier, Comac, Embraer, Irkut and Mitsubishi are all expected to capture increasingly significant volumes of jet demand, between them accounting for at least $320 billion of delivery value in the forecast period.

    The twin-aisle market remains the last duopoly in the commercial aircraft sector today. Comac and Irkut are studying a joint 300-seater programme and there is a potential $55bn of additional deliveries forecast for new 250-300 seaters from the mid-2020s from the existing or new OEMs in the sector. The turboprop niche is expected to be worth $60 billion over the next 20 years. The majority of this value is focused on the larger aircraft segments. The 70-seat sector, is expected to account for at least $36bn of this opportunity, with a larger 90-seat segment having a potential $19bn. Consequently, we expect one or more manufacturers to eventually launch a product for this market.

    executive summary

    forecast 2015-2034 Deliveries forecast 2015-2034 Delivery value ($bn)

  • ascendworldwide.com

    Flightglobal is delighted to present this all-new 2015 Flightglobal Fleet Forecast. This annual report, developed by our Ascend Flightglobal Consultancy team, encapsulates more than 80 years of combined industry experience and expertise, allied with Flightglobals unrivalled commercial aircraft database resource, to deliver a deep insight into the future outlook for the commercial aviation industry. This truly independent report sets out the predicted evolution of the worlds commercial passenger and freighter aircraft fleet, together with the deliveries into and retirements from that fleet over the next 20 years. The fleet totals in each of eight global regions, together with new deliveries, retirements and freighter conversions for airlines in those regions, are all projected on an annual basis through 2034. The analysis details each of those parameters on an individual aircraft programme level, delivering an unrivalled understanding of the outlook for all known current and future commercial aircraft production families.



    Independently compiled and verified The demand based methodology utilised is the product of

    years of expert refinement Forecast model utilises the combined Flightglobal and

    Ascend Online databases Only forecast available stretching 20 years into the

    future Only forecast available providing granular projections of

    aircraft fleet and deliveries by type and region per year


    Financiers, Investors, Lessors & Insurers Position aircraft finance, investment and trading strategy

    to provide for medium and long- term demand Understand the on-going influence of new deliveries and

    new models on residual value riskMROs Understand future shape of fleet for maintenance

    demand Confidently prepare for introduction of new aircraft

    variantsOEMs Identify prospects for current and future programmes Help shape future business strategyAirlines Plan future fleet based on availability trends Assess impact on current operating fleetAirports Determine future traffic levels Prepare for introduction of new aircraft typesRegulators Understand impact of legislation on future fleet Inform future regulatory actionTraining & Simulator Providers Plan future training programmes Inform simulator purchase decisions

    With an expert team of 20 analysts based across the globe, Ascend Flightglobal Consultancy provides manufacturers, airlines and financiers with expert advisory and valuations services to inform multi-million dollar growth, risk advisory and strategy decisions.

    Part of Flightglobal, Ascend provides unique value for clients by combining around 50 years of industry experience with the most comprehensive historical and future aircraft fleet and airline schedule data and an unprecedented historical aircraft values database, to provide a unique view on aircraft values and the impact of industry trends.


    To find out more about the Flightglobal Fleet Forecast and how to order it, contact our specialist sales team at support@flightglobal.comor visit ascendworldwide.com

  • ascendworldwide.com

    To find out more about the Flightglobal Fleet Forecast and how to order it, contact our specialist sales team atsupport@flightglobal.comor visit ascendworldwide.com

    The Flightglobal Fleet Forecast is a demand-based model which estimates the future fleet, retirements and deliveries of commercial turboprop and jet aircraft in both the passenger and cargo sectors, based on detailed analysis of historical trends and developments in the commercial aviation sector. Drawing upon Flightglobal and Ascends extensive data and knowledge resource, the forecast projects the evolution of the global commercial airline fleet and consequent demand for new aircraft through sophisticated modelling of traffic demand, aircraft retirements, fleet development and the future aircraft manufacturing scenario.


    Traffic forecastsThe passenger traffic demand forecasts are derived from analysis of historical passenger traffic in each of the eight forecast regions. The relationship between this traffic demand and historical GDP and yield trends is used to derive a projection of future traffic demand. The projection makes assumptions regarding the following aspects:

    Long-term regional real GDP forecasts Airline yield (revenue per passenger kilometre) Changes over time in the relationship between GDP and air

    traffic Relative maturity in certain markets Increased liberalisation in bilateral international markets and

    domestic systems

    This analysis delivers an annual forecast of traffic, measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs), for each of the eight forecast regions. Traffic forecasts are translated into capacity forecasts, measured in available seat kilometres (ASKs), through an analysis of long-term passenger load factor developments. Passenger load factors at the end of 2014 averaged 79.7% at the global level (IATA figure), which is close to historical highs. But with increasingly sophisticated yield management techniques, load factors are still assumed to be able to grow at around 0.2 percentage points per annum.

    Fleet forecastsThe regional passenger and cargo capacity forecasts are converted into a forecast of fleets required in each region to fulfil this capacity demand, through a historical analysis of capacity and fleet data. The fleet analysis is based upon the Ascend Fleets database, which provides access to the full histories of over 75,000 commercial aircraft by serial number. This enables the tracking of every major event surrounding the aircraft fleet, including orders, cancellations, deferrals, deliveries, sales, leases, conversions, storage and retirements.

    For each region, the historical fleet evolution of turboprops, regional jets, single-aisle and twin-aisle types is analysed in terms of actual aircraft numbers and total capacity in a series of capacity bands based on seat-size. Trends in key productivity factors ave