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Flexible Werkzeuge zur Abschätzung des nuklearen Risikos in EuropaflexRISK - Lagrangian particle dispersion modelling

for the assessment of nuclear risks in Europe

Petra Seibert, Dèlia Arnold, Helga Kromp-Kolb,

Steve Sholly, Klaus Gufler, Nikolaus Arnold, Wolfgang Kromp,

Antonia Wenisch, Gabriele Mraz, Philipp Sutter

Dieses Projekt wird aus den Mitteln des Klima- und Energiefonds gefördert und Im Rahmen des Programmes „NEUE ENERGIEN 2020“ durchgeführt.

Flexible Werkzeuge zur Abschätzung des nuklearen Risikos in Europa

Outline

What is flexRISK about ? Aims Participants Precedents Structure

Dispersion calculations Set-up

Results/Discussion Some samples Some conclusions and some more work to do


Aims http://flexrisk.boku.ac.at Creating a flexible tool for assessing hazards related to accidents at

nuclear installations in Europe and the non-European Mediterranean region

Presenting of the risk and its geographical distribution for selected changes in the operating nuclear power parks

contributing to improve knowledge related to nuclear risks in different target groups

What's flexRISK about? AIMS

http://flexrisk.boku.ac.at/






Additional “Why's”? More countries embarking in the nuclear energy path

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_by_country






Presenting of the risk and its the geographical distribution for selected changes in the operating nuclear power parks


Additional “Why's”? More countries embarking in the nuclear energy path Some existing power plants are having their lives prolonged








Additional “Why's”? More countries embarking in the nuclear energy path Some existing power plants are having their lives prolongued Accidents happen

http://cryptome.org/eyeball/daiichi-npp/daiichi-photos.htm (Air Photo Service Co. Ltd., Japan)



http://cryptome.org/eyeball/daiichi-npp/daiichi-photos.htm


Participants University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna,

Institute of Meteorology (BOKU-Met) University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna,

Institute for Security and Risk Sciences Austrian Institute of Ecology

Quality assurance and guidance from an Advisory Group including:

Radiation protection divisions Environmental Agency Austria

What's flexRISK about? PARTICIPANTS


Precedents Riskmap – Creation of a Map of the Nuclear Risk for Europe Europe-wide risk distribution (sample: the IAEA scenario, accident

frequencies equal for all reactors)

What's flexRISK about? PRECEDENTS

More cases, more radionuclides, more meteorological situations

Flexible Werkzeuge zur Abschätzung des nuklearen Risikos in Europa Structure and methodology

Identification of possible sites following the criteria:• Power reactors which are in operation.

• Power reactors currently not in operation, but not in permanent shutdown conditions.

• Power reactors under construction.

• Power reactors where the construction phase has not yet started but the siting process is finished.

• Large research reactors.

• Large spent fuel reprocessing plants.234 90 Final selection of the sites considered in the calculations

234

What's flexRISK about? STRUCTURE

Flexible Werkzeuge zur Abschätzung des nuklearen Risikos in Europa Structure and methodology

Definition of the release scenarios, release shapes and frequencies for each site (some grouped with similar characteristics), typically per unit we have: Low frequency but very large release → release shape 1 Higher frequency and smaller (but significant!) release → release shape 2

Total number of release shapes 15 What does release shape mean? Number of phases in the accident sequence ( in flexRISK max. 2), starting and ending time of each phase and release heights → all this influences the dispersion calculations

Based on the release scenarios, determine the release fractions per reactor type for some radionuclides. Radionuclides (RN) selected according to radiobiological relevance

6 RN groups: NG, Iodine, Tellurium, Caesium, Strontium, Ruthenium

15 radionuclides: Cs-134, Cs-136, Cs-137 I-131, I-132, I-133, I-135, Kr-88, Rb-88, Ru-103, Ru-106, Sr-89, Sr-90, Sr-91Te-132 Xe-135

What does release fraction mean? The fraction of the core inventory released into the atmosphere due to the accident considered → all this influences the post-processing

Cs-134, Cs-136, Cs-137 I-131, I-132, I-133, I-135 Kr-88, Rb-88

Cs-134, Cs-136, Cs-137 I-131, I-132, I-133, I-135 Kr-88, Rb-88

Cs-134, Cs-136, Cs-137 I-131, I-132, I-133, I-135 Kr-88, Rb-88

Cs-134, Cs-136, Cs-137 I-131, I-132, I-133, I-135 Kr-88, Rb-88



Cs-134, Cs-136, Cs-137 I-131, I-132, I-133, I-135 Kr-88, Rb-88

Cs-134, Cs-136, Cs-137 I-131, I-132, I-133, I-135 Kr-88, Rb-88

Cs-134, Cs-136, Cs-137 I-131, I-132, I-133, I-135 Kr-88, Rb-88

Cs-134, Cs-136, Cs-137 I-131, I-132, I-133, I-135 Kr-88, Rb-88

Structure and methodology Dispersion calculations (more later!!) Time integrated dose calculations -->

read in deposition/concentration * dose factor * exposure time



Cs-134, Cs-136, Cs-137 I-131, I-132, I-133, I-135 Kr-88, Rb-88

Cs-134, Cs-136, Cs-137 I-131, I-132, I-133, I-135 Kr-88, Rb-88

Cs-134, Cs-136, Cs-137 I-131, I-132, I-133, I-135 Kr-88, Rb-88

Cs-134, Cs-136, Cs-137 I-131, I-132, I-133, I-135 Kr-88, Rb-88

Structure and methodology Dispersion calculations (more later!!) Time integrated dose calculations -->

read in deposition/concentration * dose factor * exposure time


take

s 1

day!!!


Cs-134, Cs-136, Cs-137 I-131, I-132, I-133, I-135 Kr-88, Rb-88

Cs-134, Cs-136, Cs-137 I-131, I-132, I-133, I-135 Kr-88, Rb-88

Cs-134, Cs-136, Cs-137 I-131, I-132, I-133, I-135 Kr-88, Rb-88

Cs-134, Cs-136, Cs-137 I-131, I-132, I-133, I-135 Kr-88, Rb-88

Final end points and aggregated output We are not analysing single events (if not dispersion calculations set-

up could be different) We cannot show all the results of independent calculations -->

aggregated output:

• Contamination maps -> exceedances of thresholds for deposition

• Integrated air concentrations

• Doses per one site all dates

• Doses for all sites all dates

• Doses per country

• ----

• Comprehensive information on transboundary risks and dose assessments...



Cs-134, Cs-136, Cs-137 I-131, I-132, I-133, I-135 Kr-88, Rb-88

Cs-134, Cs-136, Cs-137 I-131, I-132, I-133, I-135 Kr-88, Rb-88

Cs-134, Cs-136, Cs-137 I-131, I-132, I-133, I-135 Kr-88, Rb-88

Cs-134, Cs-136, Cs-137 I-131, I-132, I-133, I-135 Kr-88, Rb-88

Final end points and aggregated output We are not analysing single events (if not dispersion calculations set-

up could be different) We cannot show all the results of independent calculations -->

aggregated output:

• Contamination maps -> exceedances of thresholds for deposition

• Integrated air concentrations

• Doses per one site all dates

• Doses for all sites all dates

• ----

• Comprehensive information on transboundary risks and dose assessments...


Country's share of the total risk export – the share of the total risk import< 0 net-risk import>0 net -risk export


Dispersion calculations

What do we have until now? 90 sites For each site (usually) 2 release shapes RN we want to simulate 15

What is still to be defined? When? --> simulation dates Where? --> computational and output domains How? --> set-up, number of particles, levels, species...

FLEXPART v 8.2



Simulation dates/period based on: attaining climatological representativeness (10 +1 year period,

2000-2009 + 1995) evenly distributed according to seasons and times of the day

(we have to consider releases are possible at any time and all should be covered)

1995 runs: 88 release dates

2000-2009 runs: 272*10 release dates x 90 x 2 500000 runs!!

Meteorological driving dataERA-Interim --> precipitation very important for consequences of nuclear accidents

Averaged ERA-I total precip for years 1990 - 2002



x 90 x 2 500000 runs!!

Meteo. Domain (computational domain)

Outgrid_mother domain (SRS) 1x1 deg

Outgrid_nest domain (SRS)

0.127x0.09 deg

Simulation/Computational domains:

Yellow: meteo domainOutgrid mother domain 1 x 1 degOutgrid nested domain 0.13 x 0.09 deg


Some results

Number of computational species and vertical levels Initially:

• 3 computational species (NG, I2, Aerosol)

• 2 vertical layers 100m and 650 m a.g.l.

Storage needs a factor 5-10 too high!!

90 sites * 3000 dates * 30 MB / site (avg) ~ 10TB!! Finally :

• 2 computational species - NG and Aerosol

• 1 vertical layer 150 m a.g.

From ~10TB to ~3TB - OK

What about the different radionuclides? The RN are considered a posteriori!no decay was in the calculations, all radionuclides attached to aerosol are considered to have the same behaviour.

Why this?• FLEXPART generates one file per species – 15 RN considered independently would mean 150 TB output!• Versatility!!! we can add as many (aerosol bound) RN in the release fractions considered


Some results

Code modification to reduce amount of output Dry + wet instead of dry and wet deposition Run stops when the mass simulated goes below a threshold Keep the new deposition and not the total one

Finally :

• 2 computational species - NG and Aerosol

• 1 vertical layer 150 m a.g.

From ~10TB to ~3TB - OK

Why this?• FLEXPART generates one file per species – 15 RN considered independently would mean 150 TB output!• Versatility!!! we can add as many (aerosol bound) RN in the release fractions considered



Number of particles With 100000 particles/release --> 129k With 150000 particles/release --> 165 k

1995 runs: 88 release dates 100000 particles/release (comp. RISKMAP)

2000-2009 runs: 272*10 release dates 150000 particles/release


Scripting environment to submit/control the 500000 runs


1995121709 [new: ~][sub: ~][run: ~][suc: ~][cra: ~][err: 1-93]1995122110 [new: ~][sub: ~][run: ~][suc: ~][cra: ~][err: 1-93]# # 0 (new) (not submitted yet)# 0 (sub)mitted (job queued via ./submit.sh)# 0 (run)ning (job started)# 7998 (suc)cessful ('CONGRATULATIONS' message found)# 0 (cra)shed (status 'running' but not visible in qstat)# 186 (err)or (no 'CONGRATULATIONS' message)# 8184 total

Start production runs: 20th August

End production runs: end September 1 MONTH in 40 nodes


Post-processing of the output Concentrations and depositions of NG and aerosol

Some results POST-PROCESSING


Some results

Post-processing of the output Concentrations and depositions of NG and aerosol

?


Post-processing of the output Concentrations and depositions of NG and aerosol We need to scale by the source term and account for decay:

• Reminder: contamination maps for all the sites, RN, release shapes and dates impossible (15 RN * 3000 dates * 90 sites * deposition maps, concentration maps, dose maps[several doses], adults, children.... )

• Produce the final endpoints (doses, aggregated maps, import/export risk, country-wise, reactor-wise, threshold exceedanes ...)

Site? Unit (reactor type)? Release shape? Core inventory?

Release fractions (RN)? ST (site, unit, rel_sh,RN) conc/depo (...)

DoseS (RN, ...) Effective DoseS (RN, ...) Aggregated output 1

Aggregated output 2

...

Some results POST-PROCESSING


Some results

Examples of Bohunice-3 – Mother versus nest


Some results

Examples of Bohunice-3 (website for more examples) – Mother versus nest


Some results

Examples of Bohunice-3– Distribution of deposited activity through Cs-137

Dose limit public 1 mSv/year

Council Directive 96/29/Euratom: 185 kBq Cs-137/m2 can lead to doses > 1mSv/year

Yellow - 185 kBq/m2 Orange - 555 kBq/m2 Red - 1480 kBq/ m2


Some results

Examples of Bohunice-3– Integrated air concentration of I-131

According to Austrian regulations: 23 kBq h/m3 I-131 (8.2E06 Bq s/m3) --> thyroid dose of 10 mSvin 5-year old children

Intervention limit for iodine profilaxis (red and yellow)


Some results

Tricastin


Some conclusions and work to do

Next step in evaluating risk of severe nuclear accidents -> large number of HR simulations

The higher the resolution the higher the statistical fluctuations due to reduced number of particles / grid cell

Post-processing suite to compute doses and aggregated output

Versatile tool to address consequences of NPP accidents


Some results

thanks!!

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