IKLIM SEBAGAI PEMICU BANJIR BANDANG

Halmar HalideJurusan Fisika FMIPA UNHASAS

Parodi et al. Predictability and predictive abilityof severe rainfall processes http://www.cimafoundation.org

http://www.popsugar.com/Flash-Flood-Boulder-Colorado-2013-Pictures-31755647

1 inch = 2,54 cm

New York

Colorado

Colorado

http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/html/hazards/weather_flashflood.shtml

http://pix11.com/2013/09/02/flash-flood-warning-in-effect-for-much-of-nyc-until-3-p-m/#axzz2fxDaGUar

Eastern Daylight TimeSummer time -4 jam UTC/GMT

1 inch = 2,54 cm

The tribals assess the probability of early warning of flood extent by observing color of clouds, their location, intensity and frequency of rainfall. The unusual sounds and changes in water flow, colour of water, direction of wind and the unusual behavior of wildlife like ants, birds, rats and Snakes also helps in the assessment of climatic variations.

In the prediction that a particular year is likely to be a drought year, the nature of clouds is described as follows: “There would neither be prosperity nor rain in the land should the clouds be rough and small, tossed about by the wind have the shape of camels, corms, dead bodies, monkeys or other inauspicious creatures, and be silent”

The tribals of Rajasthan also have faith in the sayings of elders about the prediction of weather, for e.g “ Pawan baje Suryo,to hali halav kim puryo” if winds flow in the North –west direction then farmer should not plough his field because it indicates heavy rains.

Indigenous knowledge in seasonal rainfall prediction in Tanzania: A case of the South-western Highland of Tanzania Ladislaus B. Chang’a, Pius Z. Yanda and James NganaJournal of Geography and Regional Planning Vol. 3(4), pp. 66-72, April 2010

Indigenous knowledge in seasonal rainfall prediction in Tanzania: A case of the South-western Highland of Tanzania Ladislaus B. Chang’a, Pius Z. Yanda and James NganaJournal of Geography and Regional Planning Vol. 3(4), pp. 66-72, April 2010

Indigenous knowledge in seasonal rainfall prediction in Tanzania: A case of the South-western Highland of Tanzania Ladislaus B. Chang’a, Pius Z. Yanda and James NganaJournal of Geography and Regional Planning Vol. 3(4), pp. 66-72, April 2010

http://bpkp-sidrap.blogspot.com/2011/05/petunjuk-lontara-allaorumang-adat-bugis.html

Bagaimana kepiawaian (skill)prediksi lontara itu terhadap

observasi?

SST Nino 3.4

DESCRIPTION: Warm (red) and cold (blue) episodes based on a threshold of +/- 0.5oC for the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) [3 month running mean of ERSST.v3b SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region (5oN-5oS, 120o-170oW)], based oncentered 30-year base periods updated every 5 years. For historical purposes cold and warm episodes (blue and red colored numbers) are defined when the threshold is met for a minimum of 5 consecutive over-lapping seasons.

2011

WIND

2011

PRECIPITATION DATAHASANUDDIN AIRPORT

2011

Apa kata meteorologis?

Convective Available Potential Energy [Joules/Kg]

Bagaimana mendapatkanLI dan CAPE?

http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/skew/details.php

http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/skew/details.php

http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/skew/details.php

Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellitehttp://www.oso.noaa.gov/goes/ http://www.goes.noaa.gov/

Apa kata pemodel?Linking atmospheric condition to

precipitation

MCC as the mean correlation coefficient

MCE is the mean coefficient of efficiency

MAE is the mean absolute errorMAPE is the mean absolute percentage error

RMSE is the root mean square error

Apa kata pemodel?Linking Oceanic condition to

precipitation

El Nino

LaNina

Halide and Ridd, 2008

Bersama…..Kita bisa!

dan tentu saja…lebih cepat!

Together faster

Thank you…