MEETING LOG SUBJECT: Organohalogen Flame Retardants (OFRs ...
Flame retardants & magnesium
Transcript of Flame retardants & magnesium
Confidential. © 2021 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.Confidential. © 2021 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.
Flame retardants & magnesium chemical markets outlook Wed 30 June 2021
Samantha Wietlisbach
Director Minerals Research and Analysis
+41 44 283 6336
Confidential. © 2021 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.
Agenda
>Magnesium sources>Processes
Magnesium sulfate
Overview magnesium chemicals
Magnesium hydroxide (MDH)
>World producers >Consumption, import developments
Samantha Wietlisbach IHS Markit / June 2021
>Flame retardant market>Environmental market, FGD
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Refractory magnesia
54%CCM34%
Magnesium hydroxide
5%
Magnesium chloride
4%
Magnesium sulfate
3%
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World consumption of magnesium resources in 2019
Samantha Wietlisbach IHS Markit / June 2021
Source: IHS Markit
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CCMMagnesium Oxide
Non-refractory
Kieserite or other minerals
Magnesium sulfate
Magnesiteor other minerals Seawater Brines
H2SO4 Magnesium Chloride
Magnesium Hydroxide
evaporation
Calcined dolomite or lime slurry
HCl
Magnesium Oxide (CCM) and Chemicals Flowchart
Thermal decomposition
calcination
Magnesium Carbonate CO2
Brucite mineral
Samantha Wietlisbach IHS Markit / June 2021
© 2021 IHS MarkitSource: IHS Markit
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86% of magnesium chemicals derived from magnesite
86% 7% 4% 2% 1%
Mineral magnesite and serpentine Brine Seawater Kieserite Brucite Byproduct and other
Magnesite and other minerals
Brine, solution mining
Seawater, with
dolomite or limestone
Brucite Mg(OH)2mineral
Samantha Wietlisbach IHS Markit / June 2021
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Flame retardants are one of the higher value larger market size Mg applications
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Average price vs market size
Average price / USD per ton
Magnesium sulphate Magnesium hydroxide
Samantha Wietlisbach IHS Markit / June 2021
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Flame retardants are one of the higher value larger market size Mg applications
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Average price vs market size
Average price / USD per ton Market size / m USD
Magnesium sulphate Magnesium hydroxide
Samantha Wietlisbach IHS Markit / June 2021
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Magnesium SulphateGlobally, about 74% is used in agriculture
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China55%EMEA
33%
Total North America
5%
South America
4%
Other Asia3%
Source: IHS Markit
The worlds largest producer is based in Germany
Samantha Wietlisbach IHS Markit / June 2021
Magnesium sulfate capacity by region–2019
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Magnesium sulfate consumption varies considerably by region
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Americas W Europe NE Asia
Other
Sorel Cement
Consumer Segment/Epsom SaltABS Polymerization
Detergents
Pulp and Paper
Agriculture
Total consumption - 2019 estimated >1.4 million metric tons
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2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021f
New Zealand
Australia
Philippines
Vietnam
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Indonesia
Malaysia
Average Price
Magnesium sulfate imports–South East Asia
South East Asia is the major importing region for magnesium sulfate
Samantha Wietlisbach IHS Markit / June 2021
US$/kgkt
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Magnesium HydroxideFlame retardants are a high value application
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Magnesium Hydroxide Consumption
2016 2019 2024
Other
Pulp & Paper
FlameRetardantsChemicals
Environmental
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Total Mg(OH)2 consumption forecast – world
Total consumption - 2019 estimated at >1 million metric tons
Samantha Wietlisbach IHS Markit / June 2021
Source: IHS Markit
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2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
• 3.5% contraction in 2020 Real GDP growth
• 5.7% surge in 2021• Strongest advance since 1973• Robust 4.5% growth 2022• Settling back to 3.1 in 2023• Materials Price Index (MPI)
highest level since Oct 2011
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Real GDP growth expected to surge at 5.7% in 2021
Samantha Wietlisbach IHS Markit / June 2021
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OtherJapanAustriaUSARussiaNetherlandsChinaAverage Price
Total Mg(OH)2 exports– world
Magnesium hydroxide exports from Netherlands and Russia increasing
Samantha Wietlisbach IHS Markit / June 2021
US$/kgkt
© 2021 IHS Markit
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Flame Retardant Market
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ATH – alumina trihydroxide is the most important flame retardant by volume
Aluminum Trihydroxide
38%
Magnesium Hydroxide and
Minerals<5%
Brominated17%
Organophosphorus18%
Chlorinated4%
Antimony Oxides9%
Other9%
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World consumption of flame retardants by type - 2019
Total >2 million metric tons
Source: IHS Markit
All flame retardants AAGR 2020-2025 ca 3.4%
Mineral flame retardantsAAGR 2020-2025 ca 4%
Samantha Wietlisbach IHS Markit / June 2021
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Mainland China has become the most region for flame retardants by value
North America18%
Europe21%
Japan8%
Other25%
Mainland China28%
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World consumption of flame retardants by region and value- 2019
WE shrunk by 6%, China 2%
Source: IHS Markit
Mainland China grows to 28% by value in 2019
In 2020, market shrunk by 6-7%
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Samantha Wietlisbach IHS Markit / June 2021
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The largest flame retardant producers
ICL-IP Lanxess Huber Nabaltec
Israel; #1 phosphorus based, brominated, MDH
Germany; Brominated,
phosphorus basedUSA; ATH and MDH Germany; ATH
Samantha Wietlisbach IHS Markit / June 2021
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Residential buildings
23%
Other buildings
9%
Vehicle13%
Grass brush20%
Rubbish14%
Forests2%
Other19%
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Almost than half of fires are reported from structures and vehicles
© 2021 IHS MarkitSource: World Fire Statistics, CTIF, 2020
Distribution of fires by origin of fire in 2019• Over 3 million fires were reported in 24
countries over 2019
• Almost half the fires were structural or vehicle
• Could use flame retardants to reduce risk, slow down the fire and allow people to escape
• 22% environmental and 14% by rubbish
• About 19,000 people died in fires, greatly reduced from 48,000 10 years ago
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Plastics and resins are the largest consumers of flame retardantsMajor customers are for mineral flame retardants are
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Independent compounders and processers that manufacture flame retardant blends
Plastic resin producers / captive compounders that manufacture flame retarded material grades
Cable manufacturers that produce in-house compounds
Samantha Wietlisbach IHS Markit / June 2021
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Polyolefins now account for over half the global plastic demand
HDPE17%
LLDPE12%
LDPE8%
Polypropylene28%
PVC16%
PET9%
Polystyrene6%
ABS3%
Polycarbonate1%
2020 World thermoplastic resin & fiber demand
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PVC ca 3% AAGR 2020 to 2025
Total Polyethylene Demand 37%
Samantha Wietlisbach IHS Markit / June 2021
Total Polyolefins demand 65%
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Global AAGR 2020 to 2025 polyethylene demand by end use application
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Film & Sheet
Injection Molding
Pipe & Profile
Extrusion Coating
Blow Molding
Wire & Cable
Fiber
Demand growth, 2020-2025
% AAGR, 2020-25
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2020 - 2025AAGR 3.2%
2020 - 2025AAGR 4.5%
Samantha Wietlisbach IHS Markit / June 2021
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IMO - as of 1 Jan 2020 max permitted sulfur content of marine bunker fuel reduced from 3.50% by mass to 0.5% by mass
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The Global Sulfur Cap
Samantha Wietlisbach IHS Markit / June 2021
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Three choices for shipping companies
Switch to low sulfur bunker fuel
Change to alternative fuels such as LNG, biofuel, methanol, sails
Install exhaust gas cleaning systems - Scrubbers
Samantha Wietlisbach IHS Markit / June 2021
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Chemicals for wet scrubbing
MgOpowder
MDH50% slurry
NaOH50% solution
Soda Ashpowder
Samantha Wietlisbach IHS Markit / June 2021
Magnesium oxide and hydroxide easy to handle, safe for the environment
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• Magnesium hydroxide from Europiren
Suppliers of MgO / Mg(OH)2 for marine scrubbers
• ActiveMag® 95 highly reactive CCM
• MH53S mare magnesium hydroxide slurry
Samantha Wietlisbach IHS Markit / June 2021
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518
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336227
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2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026NWE Bunker Fuel 0.5% NWE Residual 3.5% CIFNWE Marine Gasoil, ECA 0.1%
• Difference 110 to 125 $/ton
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0.5% sulfur heavy fuel oil is always more expensivePrice comparison of bunker fuels in North Western Europe
3.5% HFO
0.5% HFO
Samantha Wietlisbach IHS Markit / June 2021
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Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21
Vessels fitted - on the water Vessels to be fitted - retrofit
Vessels to be fitted - under construction Forecast: Vessels fitted - on the water
Vessels with exhaust gas cleaning systems installed or on order
Source: IHS Markit © 2021 IHS Markit
Vess
el c
ount
Delays and cancellations
Scrubber uptake has been strong and will likely grow further still, but delays in scrubber installations over 2020 have had a significant impact
• Rate of retro-fitting vessels between January 2019 and January 2021 slowed considerably.
• There are currently just over 4000 scrubber-fitted ships, in the middle of 2021, up from 2,010 ships in January 2020.
Samantha Wietlisbach IHS Markit / June 2021
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Sector assumptions: Global refined products demand growth recovers post COVID-19 but peak demand is still expected mid-2030s
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COVID-192020
Recovery2021
Mid-term2022-2025
Long-term2026-2050
Economy -3.5% 5.7% 3.5% 2.5%
Gasoline -13.1% 10.1% 1.4% -0.8%
Transport diesel -10.4% 6.9% 1.0% -0.3%
Jet fuel -44.0% 24.6% 11.0% 0.7%
Marine fuels -3.2% 1.2% 0.8% -2.5%
Naphtha -0.2% 1.9% 2.5% 2.0%
Samantha Wietlisbach IHS Markit / June 2021
Source: IHS Markit
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International bunkers production forecast
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Bunker fuel production and demand will continue decline after 2025International bunkers production forecast
2020
Samantha Wietlisbach IHS Markit / June 2021
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Other magnesium chemicals - smaller but important markets
Magnesium Sources• Magnesite minerals, brucite, kieserite• Seawater and underground brine
Magnesium sulfate• Reduced imports SE Asia• Many industrial uses
Magnesium hydroxide• Flame retardants growth• Maritime scrubbing systems
34Samantha Wietlisbach IHS Markit / June 2021
• Global consumption of magnesium resources grew by 3% on average per year 2016 to 2019
• Imports by the main importing region, SE Asia have declined over the last 2 years
• Overall growth expected 1.3% on average 2019 to 2024
• Flame retardant markets declined by 6-7% on average globally over 2020
• Retrofitting ships with scrubbers has slowed down, new build market is promising.
• Demand for alkali still unclear with relatively low prices for VLSFO
Source: IHS Markit © 2021 IHS Markit
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IHS Chemical offerings
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• Over 300 chemical markets• Leading the way since 1950• One stop resource for chemical
marketing information
• By market or functional area• Flame Retardants• Plastic Additives• Catalysts
• Edition June 2020• Leading source for magnesium • Capacities, supply, demand,
consumption and 5 year outlook
Samantha Wietlisbach IHS Markit / June 2018
https://ihsmarkit.com/products/magnesium-oxide-chemical-economics-handbook.html
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