FIVE YEAR FINANCIAL FORECAST - Barnstable FIVE YEAR FINANCIAL FORECAST Fiscal Years 2020 Through...

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Transcript of FIVE YEAR FINANCIAL FORECAST - Barnstable FIVE YEAR FINANCIAL FORECAST Fiscal Years 2020 Through...

  • TOWN OF BARNSTABLE

    FIVE YEAR FINANCIAL FORECAST

    Fiscal Years 2020 Through 2024

    Mark S. Ells, Town Manager

    November 2018

    In order to assist town leaders with their strategic planning process, this document provides an in-depth look at the Town’s current financial condition, revenue and expenditure trends over the past ten years and projections for the next five years.

  • i

    Table of Contents SECTION I – INTRODUCTION & SUMMARY ..................................................................................... 1

    GENERAL FUND SUMMARY ........................................................................................................ 2 FORECAST SCHEDULE – FY20 THROUGH FY24 – REVENUE SOURCES .................................... 5 FORECAST SCHEDULE – FY20 THROUGH FY24 – REVENUE SOURCES CONTINUED................ 6 FORECAST SCHEDULE – FY20 THROUGH FY24 – OPERATING EXPENDITURES ....................... 7 FORECAST SCHEDULE – FY20 THROUGH FY24 – RESERVES .................................................... 8

    AIRPORT ENTERPRISE FUND SUMMARY ..................................................................................... 9 Factors Affecting Revenues..................................................................................................... 9 Factors Affecting Expenses ..................................................................................................... 9 Capital Program .................................................................................................................... 10

    SOLID WASTE ENTERPRISE FUND SUMMARY ........................................................................... 12 Factors Affecting Revenues................................................................................................... 12 Factors Affecting Expenses ................................................................................................... 13

    WATER POLLUTION CONTROL ENTERPRISE FUND SUMMARY................................................. 15 Factors Affecting Revenues................................................................................................... 15 Factors Affecting Expenses ................................................................................................... 16 Capital Program .................................................................................................................... 16

    WATER SUPPLY ENTERPRISE FUND SUMMARY ........................................................................ 18 Factors Affecting Revenues................................................................................................... 18 Factors Affecting Expenses ................................................................................................... 18

    GOLF COURSE ENTERPRISE FUND SUMMARY .......................................................................... 21 Factors Affecting Revenues................................................................................................... 21 Factors Affecting Expenses ................................................................................................... 22 Capital Program .................................................................................................................... 22

    MARINA ENTERPRISE FUND SUMMARY ................................................................................... 24 Factors Affecting Revenues................................................................................................... 24 Factors Affecting Expenses ................................................................................................... 24

    SANDY NECK ENTERPRISE FUND SUMMARY ............................................................................ 27 Factors Affecting Revenues................................................................................................... 27 Factors Affecting Expenses ................................................................................................... 27 Capital Program .................................................................................................................... 27

    HYANNIS YOUTH & COMMUNITY CENTER ENTERPRISE FUND SUMMARY .............................. 30 Factors Affecting Revenues................................................................................................... 30 Factors Affecting Expenses ................................................................................................... 30

    SECTION II – GENERAL FUND REVENUE SUMMARY ..................................................................... 34 PROJECTED GENERAL FUND REVENUE ..................................................................................... 35 HISTORY OF GENERAL FUND REVENUE – FY09 TO FY18 .......................................................... 36 COMPOSITION OF GENERAL FUND REVENUE – FY09 TO FY18 ................................................ 37 PROJECTED GENERAL FUND REVENUE – FY19 BUDGET TO FY24 PROJECTION ....................... 38 COMPOSITION OF GENERAL FUND REVENUE – FY19 BUDGET TO FY24 PROJECTION............. 39 GENERAL FUND EXPENDITURE SUMMARY ............................................................................... 40

  • ii

    GENERAL FUND EXPENDITURE BUDGETS – FY10 TO FY19 ....................................................... 42 FY 2019 APPROVED GENERAL FUND BUDGET BY MAJOR CATEGORY ..................................... 43 FY 2019 APPROVED GENERAL FUND OPERATING BUDGET BY DEPARTMENT ......................... 44 FY 2019 APPROVED OPERATING BUDGET BY OBJECT OF EXPENDITURE ................................. 45

    SECTION III – ECONOMIC FACTORS .............................................................................................. 46 A. NATIONAL ECONOMIC FACTORS ...................................................................................... 46 B. STATE ECONOMIC FACTORS ............................................................................................. 48 C. LOCAL ECONOMIC FACTORS ............................................................................................. 48

    SECTION IV – MAJOR OPERATING BUDGET COMPONENTS ......................................................... 50 PROPOSITION 2 ½ ................................................................................................................. 50 NEW PROPERTY TAX GROWTH ............................................................................................. 50 CHAPTER 70 AID FOR EDUCATION ........................................................................................ 50 UNRESTRICTED GENERAL GOVERNMENT AID ...................................................................... 50 MASSACHUSETTS SCHOOL BUILDING ASSISTANCE .............................................................. 50 MOTOR VEHICLE EXCISE TAXES ............................................................................................ 50 OTHER LOCAL RECEIPTS ........................................................................................................ 51 FUND BALANCE ..................................................................................................................... 51 SALARIES ............................................................................................................................... 51 HEALTH INSURANCE .............................................................................................................. 51 OTHER POST EMPLOYMENT BENEFITS ................................................................................. 52 UTILITIES AND FUEL .............................................................................................................. 52 PRIVATE ROADS..................................................................................................................... 52 CLEAN WATER ....................................................................................................................... 53 WATER SUPPLY ...................................................................................................................... 53 SPECIAL EDUCATION ............................................................................................................. 53 FACILITY MAINTENANCE ....................................................................................................... 54 TECHNOLOGY ........................................................................................................................ 54 TRANSPORTATION ................................................................................................................ 54

    SECTION V – KEY FINANCIAL STATISTICS ...................................................................................... 55 A. BARNSTABLE TRENDS........................................................................................................ 55

    CAPITAL PROGRAM ............................................................................................................... 55 NET SCHOOL SPENDING REQUIREMENTS ............................................................................. 55 RESERVES USED TO BALANCE OPERATING BUDGETS ........................................................... 58 BOND RATING ....................................................................................................................... 59 BORROWING RATES .............................................................................................................. 59 TOTAL GENERAL FUND REVENUES PER CAPITA ..........................