Five ecologicallydistinct functional groups

Three trophic levels

Continuous Plankton Recorder

http://www.sahfos.ac.uk/

A diatom, showing the typical results for diatoms and copepods

A dinoflagellate, showing the typical results for dinoflagellates and zooplankton

Marine food-web succession: copepods and diatoms first, followed by primary and secondary consumers

Little shift in mean seasonal peak – peak during turnover in water column responding to photoperiod cues

Advance in mean seasonal peak – peak after turnover in water column responding to temperature cues

Peak abundance is:

Earlier

Later

Regression of Ton year:

= 0.9 deg Cover 43 years

Units of Y-axis are months

Producers

Consumers

Climate Envelope Modelling Approach:

1. Observed effects on (distribution, abundance) and growth of temperature and dissolved O2

2. Projected changes in temperature and dissolved O2 under SRES A2 Scenario.

Cod

Haddock

Chinook and RBT: 24 C thermal toleranceBull trout: 14.4 C thermal tolerance

- 95th percentile of frequency distribution- on a weekly scale

John Day River systemHobo temperature loggers

Max stream temperature = fn (max air temp + solar radiation)

AIRTEMPERATUREPROJECTIONS

A1B emissionsscenario

(a) Historic (1993-2009)(b) Projection (2070-2099)

Chinook and RBT: 24 C thermal toleranceBull trout: 14.4 C thermal tolerance

MS – main stemsTRB – tributariesALL - combined

L – loss by reach lengthV- loss by reach volume

2070 -2099 vs

1993 - 2009