First we do things differently then we do different things - David... · Global Futures & Foresight...

Global Futures & Foresight

First we do things differently...

David Smith Chief Executive

Global Futures and Foresight

Copyright © 2017 Global Futures and Foresight Limited

...then we do different things

http://www.intertechpira.com/default.asp




Data Processing

"I have travelled the length and

breadth of this country and talked

with the best people, and I can

assure you that data processing is

a fad that won't last out the year."

The editor in charge of business

books for Prentice Hall, 1957.




http://www.pcworld.com/resource/article/0,aid,125038,pg,1,RSS,RSS,00.asp


... and the telephone

“The 'telephone' has too many

shortcomings to be seriously

considered as a means of

communication. The device is

inherently of no value to us.”

Western Union internal memo, 1876.

Over 1.5 billion telephone lines

Over 7 billion mobiles





…and still on telephones

http://www.forbes.com/sites/robertszczerba/2015/01/05/15-worst-tech-predictions-of-all-time/

2006: “Everyone’s always asking me when Apple will come out with a

cell phone. My answer is, ‘Probably never.’” David Pogue, The New York Times.

2007: “There’s no chance that the

iPhone is going to get any

significant market share.” Steve Ballmer, Microsoft CEO.

1 billion sold since 2007

91% %’age of entire smartphone industry profits that go to Apple


















Innovation

48 Years

1810 1858 Ezra Warner of Waterbury, Connecticut patented the first can opener





With change comes risk

• Root causes of declines in public companies’:

• 60% strategic risks.

• 30% operational risks.

• 10% financial risks.

Source: Society of Actuaries (2013) : Enterprise Risk Management: Looking Forward

"the assumptions on which the organization has

been built and is being run no longer fit reality.“ Peter Drucker

Digital models account for disappearance

of half of the Fortune 500 since 2000. Source: World Economic Forum, 2016





A new economy

Digital tech – including automation- could render 40% of

companies in the world today irrelevant in 10 years.

http://www.businessinsider.com/former-cisco-ceo-500-billion-connected-devices-by-2025-2015-11

http://chrisriddell.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/RC_BusinessDisruption.jpg




Source: Business Insider, 2015


1. Globalisation

2. Technology

3. Demographics & people

4. Energy and Transport

5. Changes in work

6. Consumption

7. Environment

Mega trends

http://csr-news.net/main/2008/08/04/megatrends-and-the-future-of-corporate-social-responsibility/






















G

LO

BA

L C

HA

NG

E




Global Futures & Foresight www.watchblog.com Source: Population Research Bureau www.prb.org

Global population growth

33% live in Muslim countries by 2050 Pew Research





“The size of the world economy will triple

over the next four decades as emerging-

market economies wield increasing power”

“World GDP to double within two decades”





Global middle class

• Within 5 years 400m people will enter the middle class

• 2/3 of 4.9bn global middle class in Asia-Pacific.

http://hotelmarketing.com/index.php/content/article/10_things_you_need_to_know_about_the_future_of_tourism

bit.ly/2ovAzvw

http://s213.photobucket.com/user/bujin_photos/media/_MG_8043.jpg.html

70% of global middle class to

live in EM’s by 2020.




http://hotelmarketing.com/index.php/content/article/10_things_you_need_to_know_about_the_future_of_tourism


Ageing populations

Percentage of Global population over 60

700m

2.0bn




http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/0a/Median_age.png


Global wealth’s silver lining

By 2020.

• 40% of

consumption

from over 65’s.

• Spending power

of $12tn. BNP Paribas

http://bruegel.org/2017/04/embracing-the-silver-economy/












and we’re going to live even longer Human life expectancies have the

potential to reach 500, or possibly

even 1000.

“In the near future, the next two to

four decades, the disease of

ageing will be cured.”

Dr. Aubrey de Grey

B.A., M.A. and Ph.D.,

University of

Cambridge,

Cambridge, UK.

Born 20th April 1963

Robert A. Freitas Jr. is

Senior Research Fellow

at the Institute for

Molecular Manufacturing





…or

True costs of non-communicable diseases to 2030 to be

5x greater than the 2008 global financial crisis. Bain

http://www.bain.com/about/press/press-releases/future-of-healthy-2016-press-release.aspx

http://www.organicauthority.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/fatman-ccflcr-tobyotter.jpg


















Automation revolution

‘…happening 10 times

faster and at 300 times

the scale, or roughly

3,000 times the impact,’

of the Industrial

Revolution.

McKinsey

http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21700761-after-many-false-starts-artificial-intelligence-has-taken-will-it-cause-mass

https://s.financesonline.com/uploads/2016/06/autom.jpg
































Global Futures & Foresight Change is coming

TECHNOLOGY & COMMUNICATIONS





Technological impact

• By 2020 47% of revenue influenced by digital Forrester

• 87% believe digital tech will disrupt their industry.

Only 44% feel prepared. MIT Sloan





Consumers are more disruptive

than businesses

• Consumers’

technology

means they will

constantly be

faster at

adapting than

organisations.

https://www.digitalpulse.pwc.com.au/eight-trends-driving-digital-innovation-consumers-savvy-organisations/

https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=disruptive+consumers&espv=2&biw=1440&bih=775&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0CAcQ_AUoAmoVChMI0bvB0bSzyAIVSFsUCh3WmgIp#tbm=isch&q=consumers+technology&imgrc=4ogzWkRcNiyioM%3A




















• 54% are very cynical about

new technology, with

consumers stating:

‘business growth or

greed/money are the real

impetuses behind

innovation.’ Edelman

http://www.brandingstrategyinsider.com/2016/01/lies-and-the-declining-trust-in-brands.html#.VuloreIrLIU

http://www.ethandeceuster.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/sparkle.jpg

Demonstrating customer value is essential to

any digital transformation.




http://www.brandingstrategyinsider.com/2016/01/lies-and-the-declining-trust-in-brands.html.VuloreIrLIU














Omnichannel no longer an option

• 50% of customers say

they constantly change the

way they deal and interact.

http://www.callcentrehelper.com/20-predictions-for-the-contact-centre-of-the-future-48560.htm
























First we do things differently Then we do different things





Disintermediation Digital Platforms • Music – itunes – Spotify

• Hotels – AirBnB

• Retail – Ebay, Amazon, Bought by many.

• Travel Agency – Trip Adviser – book hotels/not packages

• Lending/borrowing money – Zopa – direct to lender/cut out banks

• Insurance – Friendsurance & Guevara - P2P insurance

• Real Estate – Purplebricks, emoov, Tepilo, Zoopla

... And Uber for taxis of course





Digital B2B platforms • Fashion

– NextCollections

• Global trade

– TradeKey

• Industry

– ThomasNet

• Real Estate

– RealConnex

• Retail

– Amazon Business, Alibaba,





Three horizons





Horizon 1

Technologies maturing now • Social

• Telematics

• Internet of Things

• Wearables

• Big data and analytics

• Artificial Intelligence

• AR and VR

• Avatars

• 3D printing

• Blockchain

• Zero UI





Social networks

http://www.newmediatrendwatch.com/world-overview/137-social-networking-and-ugc

McKinsey Global Institute pdf, July 2012, ‘The Social Economy: Unlocking value and productivity through social technologies.’

92% of consumers globally trust recommendations from

friends and family above all other forms of advertising. http://www.brandingstrategyinsider.com/2016/01/lies-and-the-declining-trust-in-brands.html#.VuloreIrLIU

By 2027 most work based in project teams





























Social customer engagement

• Of Social Media:

– 63% of Millennials use it to

update brand knowledge.

– 46% for online purchases.

– 86% of B2B use it during the

purchasing process.

• Social main channel for

engaging customers by

2020.

https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/241268

http://www.digitalistmag.com/executive-research/live-business-live-customer-experiences-for-the-digital-economy

http://www.business2community.com/customer-experience/86-marketers-will-customer-experience-2020-heres-need-know-01589610#Ev8EqUXkCqQcPt6P.99

http://cdn.rightoninteractive.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/customer-engagement.png




https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/241268




















http://www.business2community.com/customer-experience/86-marketers-will-customer-experience-2020-heres-need-know-01589610Ev8EqUXkCqQcPt6P.99























Distributed social video

• By 2019

– 85% of net

traffic via video

– 50% of

commerce via

mobile.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/steveolenski/2017/05/15/with-mikmak-latest-move-brands-can-expedite-path-to-purchase-instagram-snapchat/#44611fa445ee





























Social VR

• 75% to use

social VR

apps at least

once a week.

• Fusing of the

online and

physical.

https://www.fastcompany.com/40421014/survey-two-thirds-of-people-want-vr-to-be-social

http://img.sxsw.com/2015/spg_images/IAP43701.png

https://vrscout.com/news/facebook-oculus-avatars-social-vr/

VR and AR traffic will increase 20-fold 2016 – 2021.
























Social becomes architecture

• Social media could form

new retail platforms.

• Adviser, search engine

and booking agent.

• Personalise the

experience based on

your circumstances.

http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/the_future_of_the_internet_is_converged_services.php

https://static01.nyt.com/images/2017/04/13/fashion/13STORE/13STORE-master768.jpg




http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/the_future_of_the_internet_is_converged_services.php


A.I. interfaces replace

smartphones by 2020

Semantic search

natural queries, past behaviour and multiple data points.

... and Smart Agents and Virtual Personal Assistants handle 40% of mobile interactions

Heralds the

end of the

Apps

economy…





The end of the smartphone era?

• 85% say wearable electronic

assistants common in 5 yrs.

• Less need to touch a screen.

• 50% say holographic screens

mainstream within 5 years.

http://www.kurzweilai.net/ai-will-replace-smartphones-within-5-years-ericsson-survey-suggests

https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/800/1*RDB7q2UG9KdBIANWiA0kgA.jpeg
























Future work environment

• By 2021 - Virtual

assistant installation

exceeds 7.5bn.

• Could bots be the future

commerce platform?

– Conversational

commerce?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelarthur/2017/07/19/conversational-commerce-ebay-ai-chatbot/#464040d81efb

https://betanews.com/2017/05/19/digital-assistants-outnumber-people/

http://68.media.tumblr.com/2cbe391b009d24c729bc800688ac42c0/tumblr_inline_o5ubq0y4Hv1roucwv_500.png

AI Will Power 95% Of Customer Interactions by 2025. Servion






















Ambient tech

• By 2025 – The global wearable

market to reach

$22.3bn.

• By 2028

– 1 bn AR and VR.

– Smart clothing.

http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20170227005663/en/Enterprise-Wearable-Market-Reach-22-Billion-2025

http://www.networkworld.com/article/3181889/consumer-electronics/how-ar-and-vr-can-reach-a-billion-users-before-2028.html

By 2020, developed world life expectancy will increase

by 6 months, due to wireless health monitoring. Gartner










































Mobility in everything

• By 2020 40%

of wearables

evolved into an

alternative to

smartphones.

https://wtvox.com/2015/06/consumers-expect-wearables-to-provide-full-

healthit/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

https://www.bbvaopenmind.com/en/internet-of-things-opportunities-and-challenges/




https://wtvox.com/2015/06/consumers-expect-wearables-to-provide-full-healthit/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

























Next phase of mobile

• AR and VR a

$150bn market,

disrupting mobile

by 2020.

• 1.3bn mobile AR

apps by 2019.

http://techcrunch.com/2015/04/06/augmented-and-virtual-reality-to-hit-150-billion-by-2020/

http://www.wareable.com/ar/13-billion-mobile-ar-apps-in-use-by-2019-1015

http://www.overdigital.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/augmented_reality2.png











































“When you put on the goggles, it’s different from anything

I have ever experienced in my life,” Mark Zuckerberg





Zero UI: computing without screens

• 50% of paid searches could

be voice activated by 2020.

• New user experiences need:

‒ A new set of design principles.

‒ A new marketing paradigm.

‒ Understanding are customers

involved at all stages.

https://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/301084/half-of-paid-searches-voice-activated-by-2020.html




















Internet of Things By 2025:

• One trillion sensors embedded in humans and machines.

• We will each own 50 internet connected devices.

http://www.industrytap.com/the-hybird-age/3651










Internet of Things

• Links people, process,

data and objects.

• £12tn value by 2022.

• 100 x consumer data.

http://www.cisco.com/web/about/ac79/docs/innov/IoE_Economy_Insights.pdf

https://developer.ibm.com/bluemix/2015/11/23/future-of-cognitive-computing/

http://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/if-you-think-big-datas-challenges-are-tough-now/

Channels a blend of AR, VR, online, IoT, haptic and physical




http://www.cisco.com/web/about/ac79/docs/innov/IoE_Economy_Insights.pdf


























IoN Internet of Nanoswarms

• Tests performed by nano

devices in the body.

• Buildings self repair.

• Airplanes sense structural

issues and mitigate them.

• Google searches performed

in the physical environment.

https://physicsofthefuture.wikispaces.com/file/view/Medical-Nanotechnology.jpg/497103650/Medical-Nanotechnology.jpg

http://readwrite.com/2016/09/19/iot-nanoswarms-coming-soon-dl4/














Data

• By 2020

– Digital universe grows to 507zb.

• The data-as-a-service business model is on the horizon.

https://www.meritalk.com/articles/year-2025-an-age-of-machine-learning-and-data-on-demand/

http://www.digitalistmag.com/executive-research/bring-your-robot-to-work

https://2s7gjr373w3x22jf92z99mgm5w-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/shutterstock_streaming_data_diagram_-Toria.jpg

The speed of analytics to multiply 30-fold by 2030. SAP

http://www.forbes.com/sites/bernardmarr/2016/03/15/17-predictions-about-the-future-of-big-data-everyone-should-read


























































Data implications

• Shifts how consumers find

products.

• Create opportunities for

‘trusted advisers’.

• Armed with data insights,

consumers become ‘immune’

to traditional marketing.

http://www.afr.com/business/media-and-marketing/big-data-will-shift-the-way-consumers-find-products-says-deloittes-john-hagel-20160731-gqhz24

http://j-arellano.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/trusted-advisor.jpg

3 billion more people online 2016-2020







































The mobile customer in context

• Where am I?

• What do I want?

• Who’s around me?

• Where am I going?

• What would help me?

– Where

– What

– Who





Data is the life-blood of commerce

• 50% say they don’t

have the digital

skills they need.

• Only 30% of the

value in data has

been captured.

https://hbr.org/2017/07/nearly-half-of-companies-say-they-dont-have-the-digital-skills-they-need

http://www.business-standard.com/article/international/data-storage-demand-to-multiply-four-fold-by-2025-117070500271_1.html

https://ncit.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/styles/main-image/public/service/photo/data-analytics-img.jpg?itok=yXca3DgC



















































Owning consumer data

• 90% of Britons want more

control over the data they

exchange with brands.

• Organisations should give

back more to the people

who generated the data.

http://futurefoundation.net/data_privacy-report-future-foundation-dma/

http://images.sciencedaily.com/2014/07/140709151636_1_900x600.jpg














Data implications

‘By 2027 a significant

proportion of personal

income is likely to derive

from the data people

generate.’ Nicole Immorlica, Microsoft

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kevinmurnane/2016/12/07/future-tech-seventeen-microsoft-researchers-on-the-technology-of-2017-and-2027/#7a744a7c160e

http://blogs-images.forbes.com/teradata/files/2014/11/monetize1.jpg?width=960

An economy based on generating data through daily

living results in a redistribution of wealth




http://www.forbes.com/sites/kevinmurnane/2016/12/07/future-tech-seventeen-microsoft-researchers-on-the-technology-of-2017-and-2027/

























Prescriptive analytics

Prescriptive analytics predicts multiple futur

es based on the decision maker’s actions.

http://community.lithium.com/t5/Science-of-Social-blog/Big-Data-Reduction-3-From-Descriptive-to-Prescriptive/ba-p/81556

http://www.o2mc.io/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Prescriptive1.jpg

Autonomous analytics




























Blockchain tipping point

• Next-gen payments.

• loyalty and rewards.

• Smart contracts.

• Asset management.

• Exchange scenarios.

http://bankinnovation.net/2016/01/what-does-the-future-hold-for-blockchain-and-insurance/

https://www.kenresearch.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/blockchain.jpg

58% say by 2025, we would hit a tipping point for blockchain WEF.

Smart everything:






















Digital transformations’ achilles heel?

• Only 25% of companies

treat cyber-risk as a

significant risk.

• Data breaches expected

to total $2.1tn in 2019.

• Brand trust could easily

be destroyed.

http://www.digitalistmag.com/executive-research/future-of-cybersecurity-trust-as-competitive-advantage

https://betanews.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Broken-trust-600x397.jpg




















3D Printing The next trillion $ industry

• Airbus - 3D printed planes by 2050.

• First “printed homes” built.

• Commercial buildings will follow.

• Transform manufacturing, insurance, pharmacy

distribution, logistics, retailing, food, surgery …

Source: Futurist Speaker, http://www.futuristspeaker.com/2012/05/transforming-the-future-of-the-insurance-industry/?goback=%2Egde_145854_member_118622940




http://www.futuristspeaker.com/2012/05/transforming-the-future-of-the-insurance-industry/?goback=%2Egde_145854_member_118622940














3D print almost anything

Within 5 years, 85% of spare parts suppliers could

incorporate 3D printing into their business model. PwC





3D printing

Prints building layer by layer http://www.constructiondive.com/news/8-coolest-construction-technology-innovations-of-2015/410375/




http://www.constructiondive.com/news/8-coolest-construction-technology-innovations-of-2015/410375/














Unmanned Autonomous Vehicles





Auto shared vehicle potential impacts • 90% fewer traffic accidents.

• 85% fewer cars.(PWC)

• 25% lower motor risk (BCG)

• End game: – End of personal car insurance.

– End of car parks.

– Narrower roads.

– No more taxi drivers.

– Fewer repair centers/garages.

– End of home driveways/garages.





Transport options of the future

• It could be 10 times

cheaper to take

electric robo-taxis

than to own a car

by 2030.

http://bit.ly/2rB2Th9

https://media.treehugger.com/assets/images/2011/10/robo_taxi_passengers.jpg







Horizon 2

Technologies maturing within 10 years • Holographics

• Automation

• Unmanned Autonomous Vehicles

• Cognitive computing

• Parallel Computing

• Instant language translation

• Haptic technology

• Humanoid Robots

• Vocal health diagnostics via ‘devices’

• Next generation neuropharmacology





New co-workers

Acroid 1 Shakira 2 Clooney 1





Healthcare robots

• Medical robot

market to triple by

2020 to $11.4bn.

– $4.2 bn in 2016.

• Significant role in

senior care.

http://www.genengnews.com/insight-and-intelligence/ten-predictions-that-will-transform-healthcare/77900592/

http://www.pearltrees.com/s/pic/or/medical-robot-94535505




















Robot teachers





Decentralized Autonomous

Corporations

• Fully automated

companies.

• Raise huge sums

of money without

traditional

intermediaries.

http://qz.com/695499/is-the-future-of-business-a-company-without-workers-managers-or-a-ceo/

https://webonanza.files.wordpress.com/2016/07/hands_code.jpg?w=529&h=332&crop=1

The ROI of an automated organisation could

be 3-10 times the cost. http://bit.ly/2rIJRoS





























http://bit.ly/2rIJRoS

http://bit.ly/2rIJRoS


Horizon 3

Emerging technologies of 10yrs+

• Quantum computing

• Prescriptive analytics

• Smart dust

• Programmable material

• Neuroprosthetics

• Brain-to-computer interfaces

• Brain-to-brain interfaces

• Geoengineering

• Microscale 3D printing

• Anti ageing interventions





Quantum computing implications

• Quantum cryptographic

protocols are difficult to

break. – Protecting privacy.

• Our best cryptography

technologies of today will

be broken.

https://www.quora.com/What-are-the-future-implications-of-quantum-computers-for-society-technology-security-and-life-in-general

https://www.extremetech.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/crypto-head-640x353.jpg




































Quantum computing implications

• Better able to

predict outcomes

of seemingly

chaotic events

such as pandemics

and elections.

http://xpat.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/03144002/Donald-Trump-Smiling-Liberal-Voters.jpg





Data and trust

https://www.cognizant.com/perspectives/return-on-trust-the-new-business-performance-indicator

2/3 of consumers believe their date is valuable

and most expect some value in exchange.




















Sharing economy

• By 2025:

– UK’s 5 key sharing

economy sectors grow

from £7bn to £140bn

http://bit.ly/29bVFYK

https://www.thersa.org/globalassets/images/blogs/sharing-economy-group-people-graphic-600.jpg

X20 Finance, Accommodation, Transport,

Household and professional services




http://bit.ly/29bVFYK


Tomorrow’s customer: an algorithm

• Business algorithms

will be making the

offers, while consumer

algorithms will be

making the buying

decisions.

http://www.linkedin.com/today/post/article/20130708113252-17102372-the-consumer-of-the-future-will-be-an-algorithm

http://www.xcubelabs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/xSoMoBi2-01-copy.png


























AI to shape customer interactions

• Only 28% of UK CEOs

considering the impact of

AI on their businesses.

• By 2025 AI could be

powering 95% of all

customer interactions.

http://pwc.to/2jxcRuM

http://contact-centres.com/ai-will-power-95-customer-interactions-2025-says-servion/

http://www.itnewsafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/artificial_intelligence_benefits_risk-300x225.jpg




http://pwc.to/2jxcRuM





















IoT changes the rules

• 33% of all industry

leaders to be disrupted

by digitally enabled

competitors by 2018.

https://t.co/hMjdTNBQIg

http://www.wsinetmarketing.co.uk/Portals/0/EasyDNNnews/228/228competitor-analysis-for-digital-marketing-strategy.jpg

We need to be able to

learn blindingly fast

and produce with

agility.

Source: World Economic Forum, 2016, Bloomberg, 2014,





The difficulty lies not so much in developing new ideas as in

escaping from old ones.

John Maynard Keynes





Future business models

‘Future winners will actively disrupt current

business models, including their own.’ WEF

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/06/whats-the-future-of-pharmaceuticals/














If you want to get ahead – you need to look ahead

+44 7932 408901

[email protected]

Imagine it Thank you

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First we do things differently then we do different things - David... · Global Futures & Foresight...

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