First Quarter 2016 Earnings Presentation/media/EepEeqMep/Events/EEPEEQ/2016... · • Maintaining...
Transcript of First Quarter 2016 Earnings Presentation/media/EepEeqMep/Events/EEPEEQ/2016... · • Maintaining...
Legal Notice
SLIDE 2
This presentation includes forward-looking statements and projections, which are statements that do not relate strictly to historical or current facts. These statements frequently use the following words, variations thereon or comparable terminology: “anticipate,” “believe,” “consider,” “continue,” “could,” “estimate,” “expect,” “explore,” “evaluate,” “forecast,” “intend,” “may,” “opportunity,” “plan,” “position,” “projection,” “should,” “strategy,” “target,” “will” and similar words. Although the Partnership believes that such forward-looking statements are reasonable based on currently available information, such statements involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions and are not guarantees of performance. Future actions, conditions or events and future results of operations may differ materially from those expressed in these forward-looking statements. Many of the factors that will determine these results are beyond the Partnership’s ability to control or predict. Specific factors that could cause actual results to differ from those in the forward-looking statements include: (1) changes in the demand for or the supply of, forecast data for, and price trends related to crude oil, liquid petroleum, natural gas and NGLs, including the rate of development of the Alberta Oil Sands; (2) the Partnership’s ability to successfully complete and finance expansion projects or drop-down opportunities; (3) the effects of competition, in particular, by other pipeline systems; (4) shut-downs or cutbacks at the Partnership’s facilities or refineries, petrochemical plants, utilities or other businesses for which the Partnership transports products or to whom the Partnership sells products; (5) hazards and operating risks that may not be covered fully by insurance, including those related to Line 6B and any additional fines and penalties assessed in connection with the crude oil release on that line; (6) changes in or challenges to the Partnership’s tariff rates; (7) changes in laws or regulations to which the Partnership is subject, including compliance with environmental and operational safety regulations that may increase costs of system integrity testing and maintenance; and (8) permitting at federal, state and local levels in regards to the construction of new assets.
“Enbridge” refers collectively to Enbridge Inc. and its subsidiaries other than the Partnership and its subsidiaries.
Forward-looking statements regarding “drop-down” growth opportunities from Enbridge are further qualified by the fact that Enbridge is under no obligation to offer to sell us interests in its U.S. projects, and we are under no obligation to buy any such interests. Similarly, any forward-looking statements regarding potential “drop-down” transactions of interests in Midcoast Operating to Midcoast Energy Partners, L.P. are further qualified by the fact that we are under no obligation to sell to Midcoast Energy Partners, L.P. any such interests, and Midcoast Energy Partners, L.P. is under no obligation to buy any such interests. As a result, we do not know when or if any such transactions will occur.
Except to the extent required by law, we assume no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Reference should also be made to the Partnership’s filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), including its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2015 and any subsequently filed Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for additional factors that may affect results. These filings are available to the public over the Internet at the SEC’s web site (www.sec.gov) and at the Partnership’s web site.
Agenda
SLIDE 3
1. Financial Summary
2. Project Update
3. Crude Oil Fundamentals
4. Low-risk Business Model
5. Question & Answer
Q1 2016 Financial Summary
SLIDE 4
Adjusted EBITDA of $466.2 million
+8% over Q1 2015
Earnings ($ millions, except per unit amounts)
1Q 2016 1Q 2015
Adjusted EBITDA1 $466.2 $432.2
Distributable Cash Flow2 $244.5 $253.7
Distribution Coverage2 0.94x 1.02x
Cash Coverage2,3 1.13x 1.21x
Debt/EBITDA4 4.8x 4.4x
2.09 2.17 2.19 2.33 2.21 2.34 2.39 2.74
0.18 0.19 0.22 0.20
0.22 0.22 0.21
0.17
0.31 0.35 0.36
0.34 0.37 0.33 0.38
0.40
-
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16
Lakehead Mid-Continent North Dakota
Liquids Pipelines Volumes by System (MMbpd)
Record liquids pipelines system
deliveries of 3.3 million bpd
+15% over Q1 2015
1 Adjusted EBITDA includes non-controlling interest. 2 Distributable cash flow and Coverage metric excludes deferred distribution attributable to preferred unitholders. 3 Cash coverage excludes Paid-in-Kind distribution. 4 Debt-to-EBITDA metric considers 50% equity treatment for the hybrid financing instruments; MEP debt and MOLP EBITDA are deconsolidated, and EBITDA includes distributions received by EEP from MOLP and MEP, for purposes of the metric.
Capital and Investment Expenditures
SLIDE 5
Adequate liquidity to fund base capital program
2016 CAPITAL AND INVESTMENT EXPENDITURES
($ millions)
Eastern Access1 50
US Mainline Expansions1 70
Sandpiper1 80
Line 3 Replacement 180
Liquids Integrity 270
Liquids Other Growth Enhancements 190
Natural Gas Growth Projects2 20
Maintenance Capital Expenditures2 60
Total Capital Expenditures 920
Eastern Access call option exercise 360
Line 3 Replacement joint funding scenario3 (~350)
Capital and Investment Expenditures +/- 920
646
87
0
250
500
750
1,000
3/31/2016
Credit Facilities Cash
$733
Available Liquidity ($ millions)
1 Eastern Access and US Mainline Expansion capital expenditures are forecasted net of joint funding, with assumed Enbridge 75% funding. Sandpiper capital expenditures are forecasted net of 37.5% joint funding from Marathon Petroleum Corp. The joint funding by Enbridge
is based on the respective economic interest in the Eastern Access and Mainline Expansions project series and do not take into account the temporary adjustment to distributions and contributions pursuant to Amendment of OLP limited partnership agreement. 2 Represents EEP’s share of Natural Gas capital expenditures of Midcoast Operating, L.P., (“MOLP”) which will be proportionately funded between EEP and Midcoast Energy Partners, L.P. (“MEP”). Forecast reflects current base 48.4% funding by EEP and 51.6% by MEP. 3 The Line 3 Replacement project participation level with Enbridge is under consideration by an Independent Committee of the Board of Directors and no decision has yet been reached. This amount reflects one possible scenario and represents the approximate dollars that
would be remitted to EEP by Enbridge as the capital contribution of Enbridge for an economic interest in the jointly funded project.
Sandpiper and Line 3 Replacement Projects
MPUC Regulatory Timeline Clarified
• Certificate of Need/Route Permit processes rejoined
• EIS to precede evidentiary phase; EIS process underway
• Expected in-service early 2019
SLIDE 6
Early 2019 in-service; reduced near-term capital requirements
Line 3
Sandpiper
Strong Western Canadian Supply Outlook and Demand for Pipeline Capacity
U.S. Mainline oversubscribed; Q1 2016 deliveries +15% vs. prior quarter
~800 kbpd oil sands supply growth through 2019
Basin short >500 kbpd pipeline capacity by 2021
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Q42015
Q12016
Lakehead Deliveries MMBPD
Oil Sands Growth Pipeline Capacity vs. WCSB Supply
SLIDE 7
CAPP Crude Oil Forecast, Markets and Transportation
(June 2015 Operating & In Construction)
Western Canadian Supply Profile vs. Price
SLIDE 8
History demonstrates steady oil sands production growth in all price environments
Kbpd $US/bbl
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000WCSB Production Enbridge Ex-Gretna Deliveries WTI Annual Avg ($US/bbl)
Sources: CAPP, Bloomberg
Strong Demand Drives High Pipeline Utilization
SLIDE 9
2015 Projects
EEP Project
ENB Project
Premier connectivity
to North American
refining centers
Expanded market access
Competitive
transportation
rates
Strong Demand for Pipeline Systems Key Markets Served by the Enbridge System
*Excludes NGLs
Source: Enbridge estimates and EIA data
Well Positioned for Current Environment
<5% of business cash flows subject to direct commodity exposure
Low-risk, reliable business model provides highly certain cash flows
>90% of Partnership cash flows from Liquids segment
>90% of revenues from investment grade customers
Long-term, low-risk
commercial structures in
core liquids pipelines
business
1Commodity sensitive gross margin forecast is before hedging; Greater than 90% of 2016e commodity sensitive cash flows are hedged substantially above current market prices. 2EEP consolidated (including MEP) and net of Accounts Receivable purchased by affiliate of Enbridge.
SLIDE 10
Cost of Service/Take-or-Pay
Fee for Service Commodity sensitive1 Investment Grade Non-Investment Grade
Commercial Structures Counterparty Credit Profile2
Key Takeaways
11
Business model attractive in all market conditions
Strong business fundamentals • Connectivity to large producing basins and key North American refining centers
• Expanded market access underpins strong system utilization outlook
Well positioned for current environment • Defensive and low-risk business model
• Strong counterparty risk profile
Manageable funding needs • Maintaining investment grade credit rating remains a priority
• EEP exploring strategic alternatives for its investments in Midcoast Operating and MEP
Strong sponsor in Enbridge Inc.