First quarter 2012 - Vestas/media/vestas/investor/investor... · 2013. 10. 28. · Q1 2012 Other...
Transcript of First quarter 2012 - Vestas/media/vestas/investor/investor... · 2013. 10. 28. · Q1 2012 Other...
First quarter 2012
Aarhus, 2 May 2012
This presentation contains forward-looking statements concerning Vestas' financial condition, results ofoperations and business. All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be,forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based onmanagement’s current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertaintiesthat could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied inthese statements.
Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning Vestas' potential exposure tomarket risks and statements expressing management’s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projectionsand assumptions. There are a number of factors that could affect Vestas' future operations and could causeVestas' results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in thispresentation, including (without limitation): (a) changes in demand for Vestas' products; (b) currency and interestrate fluctuations; (c) loss of market share and industry competition; (d) environmental and physical risks; (e)legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments, including changes in tax or accounting policies; (f) economic andfinancial market conditions in various countries and regions; (g) political risks, including the risks of expropriationand renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, and delays or advancements in theapproval of projects; (h) ability to enforce patents; (i) product development risks; (j) cost of commodities; (k)customer credit risks; (l) supply of components from suppliers and vendors; and (m) customer readiness andability to accept delivery and installation of products and transfer of risk.
All forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified by the cautionarystatements contained or referenced to in this statement. Undue reliance should not be placed on forward-lookingstatements. Additional factors that may affect future results are contained in Vestas' annual report for the yearended 31 December 2011 (available at vestas.com/investor) and these factors also should be considered. Eachforward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this presentation. Vestas does not undertake anyobligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information or futureevents others than required by Danish law. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated,implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation.
Disclaimer and cautionary statement
2 Q1 2012
Agenda
3 Q1 2012
1. Introduction
2. Update on organisational changes
3. Financials
4. Order intake Q1 2012
5. Market shares 2011
6. Questions & answers
Introduction
Main events
• Outlook for EBIT, cash flow and revenue retained.
• Disappointing Q1 revenue and earnings.
• Aligning the organisation to 2012 and 2013 challenges.
• Very high activity level for the rest of the year.
• Additional provisions of EUR 40m for V90-3.0 MW gearboxes.
• Order intake realised in tough markets.
• V164-7.0 MW update.
• Market shares: Increasing the gap.
5 Q1 2012
Outlook for EBIT, cash flow and revenue retained
6 Q1 2012
Revenue (mEUR) 6,500-8,000
- of which service revenue (mEUR) 850
EBIT margin (%) 0-4
EBIT margin, service (%) ~ 14
Investments (mEUR) 550
- Intangible (mEUR) 350
- Tangible (mEUR) 200
Free cash flow (mEUR) > 0
Warranty provisions (%) ~ 3
2012 EBIT margin low due to:• Too high production costs
primarily on the V112 turbine and the GridStreamer™ technology, which will be reduced over the year.
• Depreciation and amortisation increase by EUR 100m.
Special items related to the lay-off of 2,335 employees expected to amount to EUR 50-100m.
Update on organisational changes
New Chief Financial Officer appointed
8 Q1 2012
“Vestas Wind Systems A/S has appointed Dag Gunnar Andresen, 48, as new Chief Financial Officer. […] He is expected to take up office around 1 August this year.”
President and CEODitlev Engel
Global Solutions & Services(Vacant)
Manufacturing
(Vacant)
Turbines R&D
Anders Vedel
FinanceDag Gunnar
Andresen
SalesJuan Araluce
CEO Staff functions
Changing the Vestas organisation
• Employee reductions to take place during busy 2012 execution.
• Shipments expected to increase by almost 40 per cent in 2012 to around 7 GW.
• Deliveries will fluctuate and are expected to increase over the year.
In a busy 2012
Deliveries
Shipments
Shipment and delivery activities in 2012Expected distribution over the year; illustrative example
9 Q1 2012
EmployeesNumber of employees, end of period
Employee overview
Headcount to be further reduced
• Employee base did not decrease significantly in Q1 due to ramp-up in manufacturing and service.
• Some employees laid off in Q1 2012 are still working during lay-off period.
• End 2012 target of approx 20,400 employees maintained. Full-year reduction target of 2,335 employees will contribute to reduce costs by more than EUR 150m, with full effect as from the end of 2012.
• US decision during Q3.
22,57622,72123,252
20,73020,829
15,305
FY2012
Expected
~20,400
Q12012
FY2011
FY2010
FY2009
FY2008
FY2007
10 Q1 2012
Financials
Activity level at factories
Shipments are the primary cash generator
• Q1 2012 shipments up by 47 per cent compared to Q1 2011.
• Higher activity level in Americas due to potential PTC expiration in the USA.
• 2012 shipments expected to increase by almost 40 per cent compared to 2011.
Shipments by regionMW
12 Q1 2012
99
404519
201110
246344 29160
208
571
619
173
712604 427
286
228
277
481
488
260
595675
707
354
103
Q42011
+47%
Q12012
1,478
931
Q22011
1,417
Q12011
634
Q32011
1,525
Q42010
1,626
Q32010
1,456
Q22010
588
Q12010
387
Asia PacificAmericasEurope and Africa
Deliveries
Deliveries by regionMW
Deliveries are the primary revenue driver
• Lower Q1 deliveries than expected.
• Q1 2012 deliveries up by 28 per cent compared to Q1 2011 – but the proportion of turnkey deliveries was higher.
• Q1 deliveries in Americas more than doubled.
13 Q1 2012
555 495 401 337131
675613
163647
542495
375562 642
458
516
384
327
587
146961851346563
Q42010
2,557
1,449
Q32010
1,688
Q22010
839
Q12010
758
+28%
Q12012
1,108
Q42011
1,956
1,124
Q32011
1,270
Q22011
1,127
Q12011
864
Asia PacificAmericasEurope and Africa
Quarterly P&L fluctuations driven by contract mix
1. Scope – type of contract.2. Uniqueness of offering.3. Value of revenue.4. Scale.5. OPEX/CAPEX allocation.6. Design lifetime.7. Cost differentiation.8. Risk allocation.9. Early generation sharing.10. Relationship efficiency.
Distribution of margins+200 projects a year
Pricing and risk variablesNot exhaustive
14 Q1 2012
MW under completion - one of the revenue drivers
MW under completion end of period
• “MW under completion”, shipments and service are revenue drivers for the coming quarters.
• Vestas entered Q1 2012 with 8 per cent lower “MW under completion” compared to the beginning of 2011.
15 Q1 2012
605 574 423 447 463 477 322 329 474
244 389285 291 301 366
428 360271
899990
-8%
Q12012
1,6442,207
Q22010
3,147
2,184
Q12010
3,398
2,5491,821
Q42011
1,754
Q42010
1,984
1,246
Q32010
2,915
1,132
Q32011
2,299
1,549
Q22011
2,044
1,201
Q12011
Asia PacificAmericasEurope and Africa
Income statement
mEUR Q1 2012 Q1 2011 Change FY 2011
Revenue 1,105 1,060 4% 5,836
Cost of sales (1,093) (960) 14% (5,111)
Gross profit 12 100 (88)% 725
Fixed costs* (216) (169) 28% (763)
Operating profit before special items (204) (69) - (38)
Special items (41) 0 - (22)
Operating profit after special items (245) (69) - (60)
Profit for the period (162) (85) - (166)
Gross margin 1.1% 9.4% (8.3)%-pts. 12.4%
EBITDA margin before special items (8.1)% 0.0% (8.1)%-pts. 5.2%
EBIT margin before special items (18.5)% (6.5)% (12.0)%-pts. (0.7)%
EBIT margin after special items (22.2)% (6.5)% (15.7)%-pts. (1.0)%
*R&D, administration and distribution
Special items with full cash effect.
Additional warranty provisions of EUR 40m related to V90-3.0 MW gearbox.
Revenue low due to deferred projects.
16 Q1 2012
Too high production costs primarily on the V112 turbine and the GridStreamer™ technology.
Gross margin and fixed costsMargins hurt by lower margins on delivered projects
Gross profit and marginmEUR and percentage
Gross margin to improve by higher utilisation
• Too high turbine cost on projects recognised in Q1, primarily on V112 turbines and the GridStreamer™ technology.
• Higher depreciation.
Fixed costs*mEUR
Fixed costs* to be reduced
• Q1 2012 fixed costs are 26 per cent higher than Q1 2011 due to higher R&D amortisation and administration costs.
• Fixed costs* including fixed capacity costs to be reduced by more than EUR 150m with full effect as from the end of 2012.
12110100
613
101
18%
23%
12%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Q12012
1%
Q42011
267
13%
Q32011
8%
Q22011
248
Q12011
9%
Q42010
20%
Q32010
449
Q22010
121%
Q12010
Gross profitGross margin
87114 107 120
99 98 110 113 102
53
7871
7770 73
92108 114
0
50
100
150
200
250 25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%Q1
2012
216
Q42011
221
Q32011
202
Q22011
171
Q12011
169
Q42010
197
Q32010
178
Q22010
192
Q12010
140
17 Q1 2012
Other fixed costsDepreciation and amortisation
*R&D, administration and distribution
Direct cost reductionsExamples of direct cost reduction initiatives
Cost reduction on lift galleries in towers
Removal of grounding cable from towers
V112 crane gallery simplification
Standardisation of rear frame cross assembly
Lifting hook redesign
Lighter version of transformer bracket
18 Q1 2012
Service revenue
• Service revenue expected to further increase during 2012.
• Ramp-up of employees in service area in order to prepare for higher activity.
Firm Service agreements with contractual future revenue of EUR 4.2bn by the end of Q1 2012.
19 Q1 2012
203203
160169173169
149159
146140
122130
112
+17%
Q42010
Q12011
Q22011
Q32011
Q42011
Q12012
Q32010
Q42009
Q12010
Q22010
Q32009
Q22009
Q12009
Balance sheet
Assets (mEUR) Q1 2012 Q1 2011 Change FY 2011 Change
Development projects in progress 264 517 (49)% 256 3%
Completed development projects 572 170 236% 577 (1)%
Goodwill and software 407 408 0% 410 (1)%
Property, plant and equipment 1,851 1,701 9% 1,898 (2)%
Other non-current assets 433 289 50% 381 14%
Current assets 4,442 3,924 13% 4,167 7%
Total assets 7,969 7,009 14% 7,689 4%
Liabilities (mEUR)
Equity 2,378 2,677 (11)% 2,576 (8)%
Non-current liabilities 1,320 1,332 (1)% 1,073 23%
Current liabilities 4,271 3,000 42% 4,040 6%
Total equity and liabilities 7,969 7,009 14% 7,689 4%
Net debt 850 1,000 (15)% 545 56%
Net working capital 20 910 (98)% (71) -
• V112 turbine and the GridStreamer™ technology brought into serial production.
• Net debt and net working capital reduced.
20 Q1 2012
• Make-to-order/just-in-time implementation has paid off.
• Prepayments increased more than inventories.
Change in net working capital
20367
Inven-tories
472
CCP*
113
Receiv-ables
49
NWC end 2011
-71
NWC end Q1 2012
Other liabilities
13
Payables
135
Pre-payments
399
813
492
88
20
910
57
Payables Other liabilities
NWC end Q1 2012
Pre-payments
Inven-tories
NWC end Q1 2011
CCP*
15
Receiv-ables
*Construction contracts in progress.
NWC decreased over the last 12 months NWC increased slightly over Q1
• Preparing for busy quarters.
• Building up inventories to execute a record-high shipment year.
Net working capital change over the last 12 monthsmEUR
Net working capital change over the last three monthsmEUR
21 Q1 2012
Warranty provisions
Warranty provisions Lost production factor
• Warranty provisions increased in Q1 2012 due to additional provisions of EUR 40m for V90-3.0 MW gearboxes.
• End Q1 LPF around 2.
• Target 2012: LPF < 2.
• LPF measures potential energy production not captured by the wind turbines.
Warranty provisions made and consumedmEUR
Lost production factorPercentage
Provisions consumedProvisions made
22 Q1 2012
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
Jan 2012
Jan 2011
Jan 2010
Jan 2009
22
30
43
5851
3440
29
45
27
5660
65
38
69
87
63
9
40
Q12010
Q12012
62
Q42011
Q32011
Q22011
Q12011
Q42010
Q32010
Q22010
V90-3.0 MW gearbox provisions
23 Q1 2012
EUR 40m of additional provisions made for V90-3.0 MW gearboxes.
376 gearboxes – 36 offshore – delivered between June 2009 and September 2011 potentially impacted.
Impacted gearboxes corresponding to around 1/3 of V90-3.0 MW deliveries in the period in question.
Vestas will pursue all relevant actions with regards to potential compensation from ZF and the bearing supplier in question.
Current LPF of impacted turbines is ~3.6.
In details
Cash flow statement
mEUR Q1 2012 Q1 2011 FY 2011
Cash flow from operating activities before change in working capital
(113) (29) 93
Change in working capital (91) (238) 747
Cash flow from operating activities (204) (267) 840
Cash flow from investing activities (91) (164) (761)
Free cash flow (295) (431) 79
Cash flow from financing activities 242 283 (13)
Change in cash at bank and in hand less current portion of bank debt
(53) (148) 66
• Free cash flow improved by EUR 136m due to reduced net working capital and lower investments.
24 Q1 2012
Cash flow
Cash flow from operations and investmentsmEUR
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
Q1 ’12
Q4 ’11
Q3 ’11
Q2 ’11
Q1 ’11
Q4 ’10
Q3 ’10
Q2 ’10
Q1 ’10
Q4 ’09
Q3 ’09
Q2 ’09
Q1 ’09
Q4 ’08
Q3 ’08
Q2 ’08
Q1 ’08
Net debt and debt coveragemEUR and ×EBITDA
3.95x
-0.05x
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
-2.0x
-1.0x
0.0x
1.0x
2.0x
3.0x
4.0x
FY 2012 Exp.
Q12012
FY2011
1.79x
FY2010
0.78x
FY2009
-0.29x
FY2008
FY2007
-1.82x
Net debtNet debt to EBITDA before special items, last 12 months
Investments, last 12 monthsCash flow from operations, last 12 monthsFree cash flow, last 12 months
25 Q1 2012
Positive trend since mid-2009 Net debt to be reduced by year-end
• Q1 investments lower than D&A level.
• Investments in intangibles to increase relatively to investments in property, plant and equipment.
Return on invested capital
Focus on improving ROIC
* Invested capital includes net working capital, PPE and intangibles.
Return on Invested Capital* (ROIC)Percentage
PPE and intangible assetsmEUR and percentage
Lower Q1 2012 investments
• ROIC hurt by poor results and by investments made to develop and convert platforms to improve competitiveness.
• ROIC to be improved by growth in higher margin service business.
54%54%49%
0
5001,000
1,500
2,0002,5003,000
3,5004,000
4,500
Q12012
53%
Q42011
Q32011
43%
Q22011
39%
Q12011
39%
Q42010
40%
Q32010
50%
Q22010
Q12010
Total intangible assetsTotal PPEPPE & intangibles to revenue, last 12 months
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Q12012
Q42011
Q32011
Q22011
Q12011
Q42010
Q32010
Q22010
Q12010
Q42009
EBIT margin before special items, last 12 monthsROIC, last 12 months
26 Q1 2012
Order intake Q1 2012
Order intake
Significant improvement in order intake
• Q1 order intake increased by 101 per cent compared to Q1 2011.
• Order intake achieved in challenging markets.
• Three big orders in the USA and Mexico constituted more than half of Q1 order intake.
Order intakeMW
Average selling price of order intakemEUR per MW
Price per MW
• Price per MW depends on a variety of factors i.e. turbine type, geography, scope, uniqueness of offering, etc.
• New products protect price per MW, but carry higher costs than more mature products.
1.021.04
0.910.93
1.11
1.23
0.920.86
1.03
Q12012
Q42011
Q32011
Q22011
Q12011
Q42010
Q32010
Q22010
Q12010
1,269
3,186
1,316
2,265
630
2,1062,278
3,031
1,2581,0221,050
542458
+101%
Q12012
Q42011
Q32011
Q22011
Q12011
Q42010
Q32010
Q22010
Q12010
Q42009
Q32009
Q22009
Q12009
28 Q1 2012
WTG order backlog
Order backlog at the highest level ever
Order backlog by regionMW (excl. of service contracts)
• Order backlog at the highest level ever.
• Value of WTG order backlog equals EUR 10.0bn.
FY 2010 FY 2011 Q1 2012
65%
22%
15%13%
7,622
60%
9,893
28%
57%
15%
25%
9,552
AmericasAsia Pacific
Europe and Africa
29 Q1 2012
Product platform
30 Q1 2012
High, medium and low wind, on- and offshore
• Prototype installation expected in 2014.
• Inquiries received from potential partners.
V164-7.0 MW prototype installation deferred
Market shares 2011
Global market shares 2011Vestas No. 1 according to three of the leading wind industry consultancies
Sources: IHS EER, BTM-Navigant, MAKE
Other
Mingyang
Siemens
Guodian United Power
Suzlon Group
GE Energy
Enercon
Gamesa
Goldwind
Sinovel
Vestas
EER"Installed MW"
41.1 GW
21.2%
3.6%
6.3%
7.4%
7.6%
7.7%
7.8%
8.0%
8.7%
9.0%
12.7%
Other
MingyangSiemens
Guodian United Power
Sinovel
Suzlon Group
Enercon
Gamesa
GE Energy
Goldwind
Vestas
BTM-Navigant"Installations"
40.4 GW
21.5%
2.9%6.3%
7.1%
7.3%
7.7%
7.9%
8.2%
8.8%
9.4%
12.9%
Other
MingyangGamesa
Guodian United Power
Sinovel
GE Energy
Siemens
Suzlon Group
Enercon
Goldwind
Vestas
MAKE"Grid-connected"
40.8 GW
24.6%
2.9%6.4%
7.0%
7.2%
7.4%
7.6%
7.6%
7.6%
8.8%
12.9%
32 Q1 2012
EER: Top 10 largest markets in 2011
Market size No. Market Rank 1 Rank 2 Rank 3
1 China Sinovel Goldwind Guodian
2 USA GE Vestas Siemens
3 India Suzlon Group* Gamesa Vestas
4 Germany Enercon Vestas Suzlon Group*
5 UK Siemens Suzlon Group* Vestas
6 Canada GE Siemens Vestas
7 France Enercon Vestas Suzlon Group*
8 Romania GE Vestas Gamesa
9 Italy Gamesa Vestas Enercon
10 Spain Gamesa Vestas GE
* Including REpower
• Vestas largest foreign player in China – ranked 8th.
• Vestas in top-three in nine out of ten largest markets.
33 Q1 2012
Today’s key points
34 Q1 2012
Outlook for EBIT, cash flow and revenue retained.
Disappointing Q1 revenue and earnings.
Aligning the organisation to 2012 and 2013 challenges.
Very high activity level for the rest of the year.
Additional provisions of EUR 40m for V90-3.0 MW gearboxes.
V164-7.0 MW offshore: Deferral of prototype installation to 2014 - inquiries received from potential partners.
Financial calendar 2012
22 August 2012Disclosure of H1/Q2 2012 results
7 November 2012Disclosure of Q3 2012 results
35 Q1 2012
Questions & answers
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