First quarter 2012 - Vestas/media/vestas/investor/investor... · 2013. 10. 28. · Q1 2012 Other...

37
First quarter 2012 Aarhus, 2 May 2012

Transcript of First quarter 2012 - Vestas/media/vestas/investor/investor... · 2013. 10. 28. · Q1 2012 Other...

Page 1: First quarter 2012 - Vestas/media/vestas/investor/investor... · 2013. 10. 28. · Q1 2012 Other liabilities 13 Payables 135 Pre-payments 399 813 492 88 20 910 57 Payables Other liabilities

First quarter 2012

Aarhus, 2 May 2012

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This presentation contains forward-looking statements concerning Vestas' financial condition, results ofoperations and business. All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be,forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based onmanagement’s current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertaintiesthat could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied inthese statements.

Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning Vestas' potential exposure tomarket risks and statements expressing management’s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projectionsand assumptions. There are a number of factors that could affect Vestas' future operations and could causeVestas' results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in thispresentation, including (without limitation): (a) changes in demand for Vestas' products; (b) currency and interestrate fluctuations; (c) loss of market share and industry competition; (d) environmental and physical risks; (e)legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments, including changes in tax or accounting policies; (f) economic andfinancial market conditions in various countries and regions; (g) political risks, including the risks of expropriationand renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, and delays or advancements in theapproval of projects; (h) ability to enforce patents; (i) product development risks; (j) cost of commodities; (k)customer credit risks; (l) supply of components from suppliers and vendors; and (m) customer readiness andability to accept delivery and installation of products and transfer of risk.

All forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified by the cautionarystatements contained or referenced to in this statement. Undue reliance should not be placed on forward-lookingstatements. Additional factors that may affect future results are contained in Vestas' annual report for the yearended 31 December 2011 (available at vestas.com/investor) and these factors also should be considered. Eachforward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this presentation. Vestas does not undertake anyobligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information or futureevents others than required by Danish law. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated,implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation.

Disclaimer and cautionary statement

2 Q1 2012

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Agenda

3 Q1 2012

1. Introduction

2. Update on organisational changes

3. Financials

4. Order intake Q1 2012

5. Market shares 2011

6. Questions & answers

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Introduction

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Main events

• Outlook for EBIT, cash flow and revenue retained.

• Disappointing Q1 revenue and earnings.

• Aligning the organisation to 2012 and 2013 challenges.

• Very high activity level for the rest of the year.

• Additional provisions of EUR 40m for V90-3.0 MW gearboxes.

• Order intake realised in tough markets.

• V164-7.0 MW update.

• Market shares: Increasing the gap.

5 Q1 2012

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Outlook for EBIT, cash flow and revenue retained

6 Q1 2012

Revenue (mEUR) 6,500-8,000

- of which service revenue (mEUR) 850

EBIT margin (%) 0-4

EBIT margin, service (%) ~ 14

Investments (mEUR) 550

- Intangible (mEUR) 350

- Tangible (mEUR) 200

Free cash flow (mEUR) > 0

Warranty provisions (%) ~ 3

2012 EBIT margin low due to:• Too high production costs

primarily on the V112 turbine and the GridStreamer™ technology, which will be reduced over the year.

• Depreciation and amortisation increase by EUR 100m.

Special items related to the lay-off of 2,335 employees expected to amount to EUR 50-100m.

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Update on organisational changes

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New Chief Financial Officer appointed

8 Q1 2012

“Vestas Wind Systems A/S has appointed Dag Gunnar Andresen, 48, as new Chief Financial Officer. […] He is expected to take up office around 1 August this year.”

President and CEODitlev Engel

Global Solutions & Services(Vacant)

Manufacturing

(Vacant)

Turbines R&D

Anders Vedel

FinanceDag Gunnar

Andresen

SalesJuan Araluce

CEO Staff functions

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Changing the Vestas organisation

• Employee reductions to take place during busy 2012 execution.

• Shipments expected to increase by almost 40 per cent in 2012 to around 7 GW.

• Deliveries will fluctuate and are expected to increase over the year.

In a busy 2012

Deliveries

Shipments

Shipment and delivery activities in 2012Expected distribution over the year; illustrative example

9 Q1 2012

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EmployeesNumber of employees, end of period

Employee overview

Headcount to be further reduced

• Employee base did not decrease significantly in Q1 due to ramp-up in manufacturing and service.

• Some employees laid off in Q1 2012 are still working during lay-off period.

• End 2012 target of approx 20,400 employees maintained. Full-year reduction target of 2,335 employees will contribute to reduce costs by more than EUR 150m, with full effect as from the end of 2012.

• US decision during Q3.

22,57622,72123,252

20,73020,829

15,305

FY2012

Expected

~20,400

Q12012

FY2011

FY2010

FY2009

FY2008

FY2007

10 Q1 2012

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Financials

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Activity level at factories

Shipments are the primary cash generator

• Q1 2012 shipments up by 47 per cent compared to Q1 2011.

• Higher activity level in Americas due to potential PTC expiration in the USA.

• 2012 shipments expected to increase by almost 40 per cent compared to 2011.

Shipments by regionMW

12 Q1 2012

99

404519

201110

246344 29160

208

571

619

173

712604 427

286

228

277

481

488

260

595675

707

354

103

Q42011

+47%

Q12012

1,478

931

Q22011

1,417

Q12011

634

Q32011

1,525

Q42010

1,626

Q32010

1,456

Q22010

588

Q12010

387

Asia PacificAmericasEurope and Africa

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Deliveries

Deliveries by regionMW

Deliveries are the primary revenue driver

• Lower Q1 deliveries than expected.

• Q1 2012 deliveries up by 28 per cent compared to Q1 2011 – but the proportion of turnkey deliveries was higher.

• Q1 deliveries in Americas more than doubled.

13 Q1 2012

555 495 401 337131

675613

163647

542495

375562 642

458

516

384

327

587

146961851346563

Q42010

2,557

1,449

Q32010

1,688

Q22010

839

Q12010

758

+28%

Q12012

1,108

Q42011

1,956

1,124

Q32011

1,270

Q22011

1,127

Q12011

864

Asia PacificAmericasEurope and Africa

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Quarterly P&L fluctuations driven by contract mix

1. Scope – type of contract.2. Uniqueness of offering.3. Value of revenue.4. Scale.5. OPEX/CAPEX allocation.6. Design lifetime.7. Cost differentiation.8. Risk allocation.9. Early generation sharing.10. Relationship efficiency.

Distribution of margins+200 projects a year

Pricing and risk variablesNot exhaustive

14 Q1 2012

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MW under completion - one of the revenue drivers

MW under completion end of period

• “MW under completion”, shipments and service are revenue drivers for the coming quarters.

• Vestas entered Q1 2012 with 8 per cent lower “MW under completion” compared to the beginning of 2011.

15 Q1 2012

605 574 423 447 463 477 322 329 474

244 389285 291 301 366

428 360271

899990

-8%

Q12012

1,6442,207

Q22010

3,147

2,184

Q12010

3,398

2,5491,821

Q42011

1,754

Q42010

1,984

1,246

Q32010

2,915

1,132

Q32011

2,299

1,549

Q22011

2,044

1,201

Q12011

Asia PacificAmericasEurope and Africa

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Income statement

mEUR Q1 2012 Q1 2011 Change FY 2011

Revenue 1,105 1,060 4% 5,836

Cost of sales (1,093) (960) 14% (5,111)

Gross profit 12 100 (88)% 725

Fixed costs* (216) (169) 28% (763)

Operating profit before special items (204) (69) - (38)

Special items (41) 0 - (22)

Operating profit after special items (245) (69) - (60)

Profit for the period (162) (85) - (166)

Gross margin 1.1% 9.4% (8.3)%-pts. 12.4%

EBITDA margin before special items (8.1)% 0.0% (8.1)%-pts. 5.2%

EBIT margin before special items (18.5)% (6.5)% (12.0)%-pts. (0.7)%

EBIT margin after special items (22.2)% (6.5)% (15.7)%-pts. (1.0)%

*R&D, administration and distribution

Special items with full cash effect.

Additional warranty provisions of EUR 40m related to V90-3.0 MW gearbox.

Revenue low due to deferred projects.

16 Q1 2012

Too high production costs primarily on the V112 turbine and the GridStreamer™ technology.

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Gross margin and fixed costsMargins hurt by lower margins on delivered projects

Gross profit and marginmEUR and percentage

Gross margin to improve by higher utilisation

• Too high turbine cost on projects recognised in Q1, primarily on V112 turbines and the GridStreamer™ technology.

• Higher depreciation.

Fixed costs*mEUR

Fixed costs* to be reduced

• Q1 2012 fixed costs are 26 per cent higher than Q1 2011 due to higher R&D amortisation and administration costs.

• Fixed costs* including fixed capacity costs to be reduced by more than EUR 150m with full effect as from the end of 2012.

12110100

613

101

18%

23%

12%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Q12012

1%

Q42011

267

13%

Q32011

8%

Q22011

248

Q12011

9%

Q42010

20%

Q32010

449

Q22010

121%

Q12010

Gross profitGross margin

87114 107 120

99 98 110 113 102

53

7871

7770 73

92108 114

0

50

100

150

200

250 25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%Q1

2012

216

Q42011

221

Q32011

202

Q22011

171

Q12011

169

Q42010

197

Q32010

178

Q22010

192

Q12010

140

17 Q1 2012

Other fixed costsDepreciation and amortisation

*R&D, administration and distribution

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Direct cost reductionsExamples of direct cost reduction initiatives

Cost reduction on lift galleries in towers

Removal of grounding cable from towers

V112 crane gallery simplification

Standardisation of rear frame cross assembly

Lifting hook redesign

Lighter version of transformer bracket

18 Q1 2012

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Service revenue

• Service revenue expected to further increase during 2012.

• Ramp-up of employees in service area in order to prepare for higher activity.

Firm Service agreements with contractual future revenue of EUR 4.2bn by the end of Q1 2012.

19 Q1 2012

203203

160169173169

149159

146140

122130

112

+17%

Q42010

Q12011

Q22011

Q32011

Q42011

Q12012

Q32010

Q42009

Q12010

Q22010

Q32009

Q22009

Q12009

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Balance sheet

Assets (mEUR) Q1 2012 Q1 2011 Change FY 2011 Change

Development projects in progress 264 517 (49)% 256 3%

Completed development projects 572 170 236% 577 (1)%

Goodwill and software 407 408 0% 410 (1)%

Property, plant and equipment 1,851 1,701 9% 1,898 (2)%

Other non-current assets 433 289 50% 381 14%

Current assets 4,442 3,924 13% 4,167 7%

Total assets 7,969 7,009 14% 7,689 4%

Liabilities (mEUR)

Equity 2,378 2,677 (11)% 2,576 (8)%

Non-current liabilities 1,320 1,332 (1)% 1,073 23%

Current liabilities 4,271 3,000 42% 4,040 6%

Total equity and liabilities 7,969 7,009 14% 7,689 4%

Net debt 850 1,000 (15)% 545 56%

Net working capital 20 910 (98)% (71) -

• V112 turbine and the GridStreamer™ technology brought into serial production.

• Net debt and net working capital reduced.

20 Q1 2012

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• Make-to-order/just-in-time implementation has paid off.

• Prepayments increased more than inventories.

Change in net working capital

20367

Inven-tories

472

CCP*

113

Receiv-ables

49

NWC end 2011

-71

NWC end Q1 2012

Other liabilities

13

Payables

135

Pre-payments

399

813

492

88

20

910

57

Payables Other liabilities

NWC end Q1 2012

Pre-payments

Inven-tories

NWC end Q1 2011

CCP*

15

Receiv-ables

*Construction contracts in progress.

NWC decreased over the last 12 months NWC increased slightly over Q1

• Preparing for busy quarters.

• Building up inventories to execute a record-high shipment year.

Net working capital change over the last 12 monthsmEUR

Net working capital change over the last three monthsmEUR

21 Q1 2012

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Warranty provisions

Warranty provisions Lost production factor

• Warranty provisions increased in Q1 2012 due to additional provisions of EUR 40m for V90-3.0 MW gearboxes.

• End Q1 LPF around 2.

• Target 2012: LPF < 2.

• LPF measures potential energy production not captured by the wind turbines.

Warranty provisions made and consumedmEUR

Lost production factorPercentage

Provisions consumedProvisions made

22 Q1 2012

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

Jan 2012

Jan 2011

Jan 2010

Jan 2009

22

30

43

5851

3440

29

45

27

5660

65

38

69

87

63

9

40

Q12010

Q12012

62

Q42011

Q32011

Q22011

Q12011

Q42010

Q32010

Q22010

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V90-3.0 MW gearbox provisions

23 Q1 2012

EUR 40m of additional provisions made for V90-3.0 MW gearboxes.

376 gearboxes – 36 offshore – delivered between June 2009 and September 2011 potentially impacted.

Impacted gearboxes corresponding to around 1/3 of V90-3.0 MW deliveries in the period in question.

Vestas will pursue all relevant actions with regards to potential compensation from ZF and the bearing supplier in question.

Current LPF of impacted turbines is ~3.6.

In details

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Cash flow statement

mEUR Q1 2012 Q1 2011 FY 2011

Cash flow from operating activities before change in working capital

(113) (29) 93

Change in working capital (91) (238) 747

Cash flow from operating activities (204) (267) 840

Cash flow from investing activities (91) (164) (761)

Free cash flow (295) (431) 79

Cash flow from financing activities 242 283 (13)

Change in cash at bank and in hand less current portion of bank debt

(53) (148) 66

• Free cash flow improved by EUR 136m due to reduced net working capital and lower investments.

24 Q1 2012

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Cash flow

Cash flow from operations and investmentsmEUR

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

Q1 ’12

Q4 ’11

Q3 ’11

Q2 ’11

Q1 ’11

Q4 ’10

Q3 ’10

Q2 ’10

Q1 ’10

Q4 ’09

Q3 ’09

Q2 ’09

Q1 ’09

Q4 ’08

Q3 ’08

Q2 ’08

Q1 ’08

Net debt and debt coveragemEUR and ×EBITDA

3.95x

-0.05x

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

-2.0x

-1.0x

0.0x

1.0x

2.0x

3.0x

4.0x

FY 2012 Exp.

Q12012

FY2011

1.79x

FY2010

0.78x

FY2009

-0.29x

FY2008

FY2007

-1.82x

Net debtNet debt to EBITDA before special items, last 12 months

Investments, last 12 monthsCash flow from operations, last 12 monthsFree cash flow, last 12 months

25 Q1 2012

Positive trend since mid-2009 Net debt to be reduced by year-end

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• Q1 investments lower than D&A level.

• Investments in intangibles to increase relatively to investments in property, plant and equipment.

Return on invested capital

Focus on improving ROIC

* Invested capital includes net working capital, PPE and intangibles.

Return on Invested Capital* (ROIC)Percentage

PPE and intangible assetsmEUR and percentage

Lower Q1 2012 investments

• ROIC hurt by poor results and by investments made to develop and convert platforms to improve competitiveness.

• ROIC to be improved by growth in higher margin service business.

54%54%49%

0

5001,000

1,500

2,0002,5003,000

3,5004,000

4,500

Q12012

53%

Q42011

Q32011

43%

Q22011

39%

Q12011

39%

Q42010

40%

Q32010

50%

Q22010

Q12010

Total intangible assetsTotal PPEPPE & intangibles to revenue, last 12 months

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Q12012

Q42011

Q32011

Q22011

Q12011

Q42010

Q32010

Q22010

Q12010

Q42009

EBIT margin before special items, last 12 monthsROIC, last 12 months

26 Q1 2012

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Order intake Q1 2012

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Order intake

Significant improvement in order intake

• Q1 order intake increased by 101 per cent compared to Q1 2011.

• Order intake achieved in challenging markets.

• Three big orders in the USA and Mexico constituted more than half of Q1 order intake.

Order intakeMW

Average selling price of order intakemEUR per MW

Price per MW

• Price per MW depends on a variety of factors i.e. turbine type, geography, scope, uniqueness of offering, etc.

• New products protect price per MW, but carry higher costs than more mature products.

1.021.04

0.910.93

1.11

1.23

0.920.86

1.03

Q12012

Q42011

Q32011

Q22011

Q12011

Q42010

Q32010

Q22010

Q12010

1,269

3,186

1,316

2,265

630

2,1062,278

3,031

1,2581,0221,050

542458

+101%

Q12012

Q42011

Q32011

Q22011

Q12011

Q42010

Q32010

Q22010

Q12010

Q42009

Q32009

Q22009

Q12009

28 Q1 2012

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WTG order backlog

Order backlog at the highest level ever

Order backlog by regionMW (excl. of service contracts)

• Order backlog at the highest level ever.

• Value of WTG order backlog equals EUR 10.0bn.

FY 2010 FY 2011 Q1 2012

65%

22%

15%13%

7,622

60%

9,893

28%

57%

15%

25%

9,552

AmericasAsia Pacific

Europe and Africa

29 Q1 2012

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Product platform

30 Q1 2012

High, medium and low wind, on- and offshore

• Prototype installation expected in 2014.

• Inquiries received from potential partners.

V164-7.0 MW prototype installation deferred

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Market shares 2011

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Global market shares 2011Vestas No. 1 according to three of the leading wind industry consultancies

Sources: IHS EER, BTM-Navigant, MAKE

Other

Mingyang

Siemens

Guodian United Power

Suzlon Group

GE Energy

Enercon

Gamesa

Goldwind

Sinovel

Vestas

EER"Installed MW"

41.1 GW

21.2%

3.6%

6.3%

7.4%

7.6%

7.7%

7.8%

8.0%

8.7%

9.0%

12.7%

Other

MingyangSiemens

Guodian United Power

Sinovel

Suzlon Group

Enercon

Gamesa

GE Energy

Goldwind

Vestas

BTM-Navigant"Installations"

40.4 GW

21.5%

2.9%6.3%

7.1%

7.3%

7.7%

7.9%

8.2%

8.8%

9.4%

12.9%

Other

MingyangGamesa

Guodian United Power

Sinovel

GE Energy

Siemens

Suzlon Group

Enercon

Goldwind

Vestas

MAKE"Grid-connected"

40.8 GW

24.6%

2.9%6.4%

7.0%

7.2%

7.4%

7.6%

7.6%

7.6%

8.8%

12.9%

32 Q1 2012

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EER: Top 10 largest markets in 2011

Market size No. Market Rank 1 Rank 2 Rank 3

1 China Sinovel Goldwind Guodian

2 USA GE Vestas Siemens

3 India Suzlon Group* Gamesa Vestas

4 Germany Enercon Vestas Suzlon Group*

5 UK Siemens Suzlon Group* Vestas

6 Canada GE Siemens Vestas

7 France Enercon Vestas Suzlon Group*

8 Romania GE Vestas Gamesa

9 Italy Gamesa Vestas Enercon

10 Spain Gamesa Vestas GE

* Including REpower

• Vestas largest foreign player in China – ranked 8th.

• Vestas in top-three in nine out of ten largest markets.

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Today’s key points

34 Q1 2012

Outlook for EBIT, cash flow and revenue retained.

Disappointing Q1 revenue and earnings.

Aligning the organisation to 2012 and 2013 challenges.

Very high activity level for the rest of the year.

Additional provisions of EUR 40m for V90-3.0 MW gearboxes.

V164-7.0 MW offshore: Deferral of prototype installation to 2014 - inquiries received from potential partners.

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Financial calendar 2012

22 August 2012Disclosure of H1/Q2 2012 results

7 November 2012Disclosure of Q3 2012 results

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Questions & answers

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