First National Communication Kazakhstan

Initial National Communication of theRepublic of Kazakhstan under the

United Nations Framework Conventionon Climate Change

Almaty, 1998

2 KAZAKHSTAN 'S INITIAL NATIONAL COMMUNICATION

This document was prepared and published with technical and financialsupport of the Netherlands Climate Change Studies Assistance Programme

KAZAKHSTAN 'S INITIAL NATIONAL COMMUNICATION 3

Table of Contents

LIST OF ACRONYMS, ABBREVIATIONS, AND UNITS ..........................................................................5

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .............................................................................................................................7

INTRODUCTION......................................................................................................................................... 18

CHAPTER 1. NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES........................................................................................ 20

1.1 THE GEOGRAPHY, CLIMATE AND NATURAL RESOURCES ..................................................................... 211.2 POPULATION ...................................................................................................................................... 231.3 OVERVIEW OF KAZAKHSTAN’S ECONOMY........................................................................................... 241.4 OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY SECTOR ................................................................................................... 25

1.4.1 Resources................................................................................................................................. 251.4.2 Energy Transformation and Distribution ................................................................................... 271.4.3 Consumption............................................................................................................................ 281.4.4 Energy Strategy........................................................................................................................ 28

1.5 NATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS FOR COORDINATING CLIMATE CHANGE STUDIES AND UNFCCCACTIVITIES IN KAZAKHSTAN .............................................................................................................. 30

CHAPTER 2. POSSIBLE CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACTS..................................................... 31

2.1 CLIMATE OBSERVATION ..................................................................................................................... 312.2 OBSERVED CLIMATE CHANGE ............................................................................................................ 312.3 EXPECTED CLIMATE CHANGE ............................................................................................................. 342.4 VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT ............................................................................................................ 35

2.4.1 Humidity Zones........................................................................................................................ 352.4.2 Wheat Production..................................................................................................................... 362.4.3 Grasslands ............................................................................................................................... 372.4.4 Sheep Breeding ........................................................................................................................ 372.4.5 Water Resources....................................................................................................................... 37

CHAPTER 3. NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION INVENTORY.......................................... 39

3.1 METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................................................. 393.2 TOTAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS ................................................................................................. 423.3 CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS ............................................................................................................. 46

3.3.1 Energy Activities...................................................................................................................... 463.3.2 Non-Energy Activities.............................................................................................................. 47

3.4 METHANE EMISSIONS ......................................................................................................................... 483.4.1 Fugitive Emissions ................................................................................................................... 493.4.2 Agriculture............................................................................................................................... 493.4.3 Waste Management.................................................................................................................. 49

3.5 OTHER EMISSIONS.............................................................................................................................. 503.6 CARBON DIOXIDE SINKS..................................................................................................................... 503.7 UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT............................................................................................................... 503.8 CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSION PROJECTION............................................................................................ 50

CHAPTER 4. MEASURES ON GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS REDUCTION ANDADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE .......................................................................... 52

4.1 EVALUATING AND DEVELOPING MEASURES ........................................................................................ 534.2 PROPOSED GREENHOUSE GASES MITIGATION MEASURES .................................................................... 54

4.2.1 Energy Sector........................................................................................................................... 544.2.2 Non-Energy Sector................................................................................................................... 63


4.3 PROPOSED ADAPTATION MEASURES ...................................................................................................654.3.1 Wheat Production.....................................................................................................................654.3.2 Water Resources.......................................................................................................................67

4.4 EDUCATION, TRAINING, PUBLIC AWARENESS AND NGOS....................................................................684.5 FOLLOW-UP ACTIVITIES .....................................................................................................................70

REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................................73

KAZAKHSTAN 'S INITIAL NATIONAL COMMUNICATION 5

List of Acronyms, Abbreviations, and Units

Acronyms and Abbreviations

CCC Canadian Climate CenterENPEP Energy and Power Evaluation ProgramFSU Former Soviet UnionGCM general circulation modelGDP gross domestic productGEF Global Environmental FacilityGFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics LaboratoryGHG greenhouse gasGISS Goddard Institute for Space StudiesGWP global warming potentialIEA International Energy AgencyIPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeKazNIIMOSK Kazakh Institute for Environment Monitoring and ClimateNAP national action planNGO nongovernmental organizationNREL National Renewable Energy LaboratoryPPP purchasing power parityRK Republic of KazakhstanSGP Small Grant ProgramUKMO United Kingdom Meteorological OfficeUNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeUNDP United Nations Development ProgrammeUSAID United States Agency for International DevelopmentWMO World Meteorological Organization


Chemical Symbols

CH4 methaneCO carbon monoxideCO2 carbon dioxideN2O nitrous oxideNMVOC non-methane volatile organic compoundsNOx nitrogen oxides

Units of Measurement

°C degree Celsiusbbl barrelGg gigagramha hectarekm kilometerkm2 square kilometerkWh kilowatt hourm meterm/s meter per secondm3 cubic meterMW megawatttce tonne of coal equivalenttoe tonne of oil equivalentTW terawattTWh terawatt hourW watt

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 7

Executive Summary

Introduction

The Republic of Kazakhstan signed theUnited Nations Framework Conventionon Climate Change (further — theUNFCCC or the Convention) in June1992, and ratified it in May 1995.Currently Kazakhstan does not belongto any Annex of the Convention.

This national communicationsummarizes past studies, provides anoverview of the national circumstancesthat influence Kazakhstan's climatechange response capacity, reports theresults of the GHG national inventoryfor the years 1990, and 1994, andoutlines the main strategies andmeasures addressed to GHG emissionsreduction and adaptation to anticipatedclimate change.

Climate change studies from 1994 to1998 were carried out with support ofthe US Country Studies Program. TheNetherlands Climate Change StudiesAssistance Programme supporteddevelopment of GHG inventory for1994 as well as preparation andpublishing of this document.

National circumstances

Kazakhstan is located in Central Asiawithin 39°49'–55°49' N and 46°28'–87°18' E, at the center of the Eurasiancontinent. The landlocked country hasthe ninth largest landmass of anycountry in the world, 2.72 million

square kilometers. The population ofKazakhstan was 16.7 million in 1990.

Kazakhstan has four landscape zones:forest-steppe, steppe, semi-desert, anddesert. The climate is continental, withwide variations throughout theterritory. Precipitation varies from lessthan 150 mm in the central desert areasto more than 1,500 mm in mountainousregions. Average temperatures inJanuary range from -18 °C in the northto -3 °C in the south; July averages are19 °C in the north, and 30 °C inthe south.

Most of Kazakhstan is located in themarginal zones, which are considerablyvulnerable to climate change.Redistribution of precipitation andincreased frequency and intensity ofdroughts will entail negativeconsequences, particularly inagriculture and water management ofthe country.

Climate change issues are consideredimportant in Kazakhstan. InKazakhstan, as in any transitioncountry, climate change is only apriority to the extent that it is related tothe main national conception ofprotection of the environment andsustainable development.

Overview of Kazakhstan’sEconomy

Kazakhstan's transition to a marketeconomy began in 1991. In 1990, gross


domestic product (GDP) in purchasingpower parity (PPP) amounted to4,089 USD per capita: in 1994, it was2,442 USD. Thus, for the period 1990 to1994, the GDP slid 40%, reflecting thedifficulties of the transition period.

Kazakhstan is richly endowed withnatural and energy resources, and it isan important producer, and netexporter, of oil. Recoverable oil reservesare estimated at 12 billion barrels. Thecurrent level of production is470,000 bbl/day. In the GDP structure,the share of industry was 20.5% in 1990,and 30% in 1994. The share ofagriculture in the GDP was 20, and30%: the share of services 27, and 43%,respectively. Industry is dominated bymining and processing activities largelygeared to exploiting the rich naturalresource base. Livestock (mainly sheep-breeding) is the most importantagricultural activity. The mostimportant agricultural crop is wheat.Kazakhstan has trade communicationsand economic links with many FSUrepublics, especially Russia, China anda number of East European countries.

Kazakhstan has huge deposits ofenergy resources. In 1990, the totaloutput of primary energy resources inKazakhstan amounted to 119.4 milliontoe (tonnes of oil equivalent) or170.66 million tce (tonnes of coalequivalent). There is prevalence of hardand, to a lesser degree, brown coal(lignite) in the energy resource balance.In 1990, its share was 49.3%. The shareof oil, gas and nuclear fuel was 21.6, 5.2,were 23.4%, respectively. The share ofrenewable energy was about 0.5%.

As a result of the decline of theeconomy, the demand for energyKazakhstan has dramatically decreasedover the past several years. From1990 to 1997, energy consumption fellby more than 45%. According to energydemand projections given in "TheNational Energy Sector DevelopmentStrategy until 2030", growth of demandfor electricity is expected after 1998. Itwill reach the level of 1990 in 2025, or2010, in keeping with "pessimistic" and"optimistic" energy developmentscenarios, respectively. It would bepossible to meet the increasingelectricity and heat demand byrestoration of energy production up tothe level of 1990 with the existingpower plants, if they are modernized,and if additional turbines are installedon a number of power stations. Thehighest priority of the Energy Strategyis improvements in energy efficiencyand energy saving. The main way toachieve the goals and implement thepriorities of the Energy Strategy is todevelop a power and energy marketregulated by the Government.

Possible Climate Change and ItsImpact on Natural Ecosystemsand the Economy

A tendency towards increased, spatiallyaveraged, seasonal and annual airtemperatures was observed for the lastcentenary in Kazakhstan. The value ofthe temperature increase is about 1.3 °Cfor the period 1894–1997. Warmingmanifested itself more in spring.

A significant increase in mean airtemperatures is expected in Kazakhstanas the result of increasing

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 9

CO2 concentrations in the globalatmosphere. All general circulationmodels (GCMs) suggest increases intemperatures from 4 to 7 °C with thedoubling CO2 which is expected tooccur between 2050 to 2075, dependingon the CO2 emissions scenario used. InKazakhstan, maximum temperatureincrease is expected to be in winter andspring. In most cases, the relativechanges in annual precipitation were inthe range of 80–120%. Some modelssuggest increases in precipitation of20%; others, a decrease of 10% from thenorm.

All GCMs predict increase in climatearidity. The sub-humid zone (where themain area of grain-crops cultivation iscurrently located) will be reduced inarea from 6 to 23%. Under the UKMOscenario, which predicts the maximumwarming in the region, the sub-humidzone will disappear from Kazakhstan’sterritory. Instead, a hyper-arid zonewill appear and occupy up to 38% ofthe area. A climate change of thisnature will influence the economy andnatural resources of the country to aconsiderable degree.

Vulnerability assessment of wheat yieldshowed that it would be especiallyvulnerable to the expected climatechange. Spring wheat yield willdecrease by 27% under possible climatechange; although, between the years2010, and 2030, wheat yield may evenslightly increase.

Studies of grassland vegetationvulnerability show that anyconsiderable temperature increase willnegatively affect natural grasslands.

The plants with surface root systems,which utilize mostly precipitationmoisture, will be particularlyvulnerable.

It is estimated that the expected climatechange will also have a negative impacton sheep-breeding productivity due toboth grassland yield decrease, and thedirect impact of increases in duration ofstable hot weather on the sheep.According to the different scenarios, theduration of these periods will increaseby 27 to 57 days. The output of lambswill decrease by 5 to 25%, and woolproductivity will be reducedby 10 to 20%.

Surface water resources vulnerabilityassessment was conducted using theNorth and East Kazakhstan riverbasins. It showed that climate changeunder 2×CO2 levels could cause 20% to30% reductions in the water resourcesof Kazakhstan. In addition, annual flowredistribution can occur: during the lowwater periods, the flow will increase;during high water periods it willdecrease. The probability of floodingwill also decrease.

In general, the studies showed thatagriculture (spring and winter wheat),grasslands, livestock, and waterresources are highly vulnerable topossible climate change, and negativeimpacts – depending both on thescenario used and on the area ofKazakhstan considered – are strongerthan positive ones.


Inventory of anthropogenicgreenhouse gas emissions andsinks

National inventory of anthropogenicgreenhouse gas (GHG) emissions bysources and removals by sinks wascompiled for the year 1990, which isrecommended by the UNFCCC to beused as a reference year. In addition, apreliminary assessment of greenhousegas emissions and sinks for 1994 wasconducted.

The IPCC Guidelines of 1995 weretaken as the methodological basis forestimating GHG emissions and sinkswhile conducting the national GHGinventory. In some cases, the IPCCmethodology was complemented toreflect national circumstances and/ordata availability.

In accordance with the IPCCGuidelines, Kazakhstan's inventory isdivided into five main categories:Energy Activities, Industrial Processes,Agriculture, Land Use Change andForestry, and Waste Management. Thenational GHG inventory representsemissions data on three gases withdirect greenhouse effect: carbon dioxide(CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide(N2O); and on three gases with indirectgreenhouse effect – carbon monoxide(CO), oxides of nitrogen (NOx) andnon-methane volatile organiccompounds (NMVOC).

According to the results of the refinedinventory, total net greenhouse gasemissions in 1990 were about266 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent.Preliminary assessment showed that

this value in 1994 was about 213 milliontonnes. Thus, total GHG emissions inKazakhstan during this period declinedby more than 20%. Specific GHGemissions in Kazakhstan amounted toover 15.9 tonnes per capita: from thisamount, about 13.6 tonnes areattributed to CO2. The national GHGinventories for 1990, and 1994, aresubject to adjustment in accordancewith new IPCC methodology and newinitial data obtained.

The relative contributions of the threedirect greenhouse gases to totalemissions in CO2-equivalent for 1990and 1994, were as follows:

• carbon dioxide — 85 and 82% of thetotal greenhouse gas emissionsrespectively, for 1990 and 1994;

• methane — about 15 and 18%; and

• nitrous oxide — 0.3 and 0.02%.

Energy activities in Kazakhstanproduced 226 and 178 million tonnes ofcarbon dioxide emissions in 1990, and1994, respectively. The energyproduction sector is the main source ofCO2 emissions in this category.Emissions from this sector amount toalmost half of the total emissions fromfuel combustion. In absolute terms,carbon dioxide emissions fromenterprises of the Ministry of Energyequaled 93 million tonnes in 1990, and74 million tonnes in 1994. The mainfeature of Kazakhstan’s energy sector isa predominance of coal in the fuelbalance. Therefore, in 1990 the share ofemissions from coal combustion was80.9%; from the burning of fuel oil andgas 9.7% and 9.4%, correspondingly.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 11

In 1990, the share of carbon dioxideemissions from industrial sources wasabout 23%, while transport andresidential sector shares wereapproximately equal, each of themamounting to 15% of the totalCO2 emissions. In 1994, these figureswere 29.8 and 17%. Data for thesecategories are subject to refinement.

Uptake of carbon dioxide by forestsamounted to 4,627 thousand tonnes in1990, accounting for 2.4% of cumulativeGHG emissions in Kazakhstan. In 1994,the amount of wood cut down wasreduced considerably, compared to1990. With the area covered by forestsunchanged, it resulted in an increase inthe CO2 uptake to 6,627 thousandtonnes, equaling 3.7% of totalCO2 emissions in 1994.

Methane emissions amounted to about2 million tonnes in 1990, and 1994. Itshould be noted that the calculatedemissions for 1990 wereunderestimated because emissionsfrom the oil and gas sector were nottaken into account. The main sources ofmethane emissions in Kazakhstan areextraction and processing of coal, oiland gas (49, and 44% in 1990, and 1994,respectively), agriculture (45, and 44%),and waste (6, and 12%).

The level of uncertainty yielded bynational activity (statistical) data inenergy-related activities is estimated atbetween 5, and 20%, except in theresidential sector, where errors couldexceed 20%. Methane emissions fromenteric fermentation in livestock wereestimated to contain a 25% error. Thedegree of uncertainty for fugitive

emissions is equal to 60%. For othercategories, uncertainty varies frombetween 20, and 80%.

According to the preliminary estimate,CO2 emissions reduction will reachabout 45% of the 1990 level by 1998.Baseline CO2 emissions projectionsshow that the emissions will reach the1990 level in 2011 and exceed this levelby 37% in 2020.

Measures for Greenhouse GasEmissions Reduction andAdaptation to Climate Change

In Kazakhstan, as in any developingand transition country, the programson GHG emissions reduction andadaptation to climate change should beintegrated with other national andsectoral development plans andprograms for preservation of theenvironment.

Proposed Greenhouse Gas MitigationMeasures

In Kazakhstan, main efforts will befocused on GHG mitigation measuresin the energy sector. The GHGmitigation measures are directlyconnected with the overall energysector development strategy and theNational Program on Energy Saving. Inthe energy production sector, thefollowing measures were identified:

• to increase energy efficiency atfossil-fueled power plants, energysaving and district heatingimprovement;

• to increase the natural gas share inthe energy balance;


• to include renewable sources ofenergy in the energy balance.

In the energy consumption sector, thefollowing measures were defined aspriority:

• to increase the energy efficiency andenergy savings in industry;

• to improve energy saving in theresidential and in the districtheating sectors.

Measures on increasing energyefficiency and energy saving have themost significant CO2 emissionsreduction potential in Kazakhstan.Implementation of those items outlinedin the National Energy Saving Programcould provide reductions in fuelconsumption by 25% (short andmedium-term action program), and by40% (as the result of implementation ofthe long-term program). The Law of theRepublic of Kazakhstan on EnergySaving, adopted in December 1997,declaratively covers all the aspects ofenergy-saving in both energyproduction and energy consumptionsectors, including increase of energyefficiency and development ofrenewable energy. The Law defines theframework for governing the energy-saving policies at the national level.However, the enabling mechanisms forimplementation of the Law have not yetbeen fully developed. Therefore, one ofthe priority measures on GHGemissions reduction in energy sector asa whole is to design enablingmechanisms to implement the Law onEnergy-Saving.

Taking into account the availability ofnatural resources in Kazakhstan,existing research and technical work,and expert studies by the Ministry ofEnergy, various energy technologies inenergy generation were evaluated withregard to their possible contribution tothe reduction of CO2 emissions andcosts of emission abatement. Amongthese options were rehabilitation andmodernization of thermal power plantsaimed at increasing their efficiency;wind, solar energy, and extended use ofhydro energy; and utilization ofassociated gas in the oil fields. Alltechnologies under consideration havebeen included in the programs onenergy development.

Measures for rehabilitation andmodernization of thermal power plantshave the biggest GHG emissionsreduction potential, followed bydevelopment of wind and hydroenergy, and use of associated gasinstead of coal. Solar energy also hassome GHG emissions reductionpotential. Implementation of thesemeasures would result in reduction ofcoal and oil utilization as well asreduction of electricity import.

Rehabilitation and modernization ofthe thermal power plants andcommencement of small hydroelectricplants appear to be the most cost-effective and feasible measures.Implementation of the first programwill allow the reduction of annualCO2 emissions by 1.6 million tonnes(2.0% of the baseline level) by the year2005 and by approximately 2.3 milliontonnes (1.6%) by the year 2020.Cumulative CO2 emissions reduction


for the whole period will amount to40 million tonnes. To implement thewhole program of improving theefficiency of fuel utilization at thepower plants, presented in the Strategyfor the energy sector development, willrequire 400 million USD by the year2005; and 1 billion USD by the year2020. Increasing energy efficiency atthermal power plants, along withenergy-efficiency savings and districtheating improvement was included asthe main priority for medium and shortterm measures in the electricitygeneration sector in the Program onEnergy Saving. The first step in theimplementation of the last measure wastaken by starting the project "CapacityBuilding to Reduce Key Barriers toEnergy Efficiency in Heat and HotWater Supply", with the support ofUNDP/GEF.

The energy sector developmentstrategy up to the year 2030 outlinesriver basins and regions mostpromising for constructing smallhydroelectric plants. At present, it isfeasible to construct about 23 small andmiddle-sized hydroelectric plants with600 MW cumulative capacity andannual production of 1.3 to 1.5 TWh.With the implementation of thismeasure, the GHG emissions annualreduction potential is estimated at 0.2,and 3.7 million tonnes by the years2000, and 2020, correspondingly. Smallhydro power plants are the only option,which can result in reducing electricityprices and conserving financialresources. The funds required to installall the small hydroelectric plantsprojected by the energy sectordevelopment strategy will amount to

about 17 million USD in 2005, and578 million USD in 2020.

Kazakhstan possesses significantpotential for wind energy development.According to the research workperformed, nine regions were identifiedin Kazakhstan as most suitable fordevelopment of wind energy – theseare the regions characterized by windspeeds exceeding 8 m/s. In addition toopportunities for installation of largewind facilities, there is considerablepotential for small wind power facilitiesin the zones of decentralized electricitysupply; for example, in remote areascharacterized by the high costs ofdelivery of fuel for electricity, and heatsupply. The CO2 emission reductionpotential of this measure is estimated tobe from 0.7 to 3.1 million tonnes (orfrom 0.8 to 2.1% of the baseline level)and required funds total 223 millionUSD, and 1 billion USD, in the years2000 and 2020, correspondingly.

Developing wind energy is one of thebest-supported and sustainable optionsfor long-term energy sectordevelopment program in Kazakhstan.Its development, though, requiresstrong governmental support.According to the energy sectordevelopment strategy, installation oflarge wind power plants with totalcapacity of 520 MW is planned. Totalinvestment required is about500 million USD. It is expected that thescale effect will reduce the cost of thisenergy, and in perspective move itcloser to those of the traditionalsources.


The full-scale GEF project "RemovingBarriers to Wind Power Production inKazakhstan" has been inimplementation since June 1997. Themain objective of this project is toremove barriers to commercial scale,grid-connected, wind powerproduction in Kazakhstan, therebyreducing the need for new fossil fuelbased power plants and the associatedgreenhouse gas emissions. The projectis expected to achieve this goal by: (i)strengthening institutional capacity forresearch, planning and technologytransfer related to wind powerproduction; (ii) reducing theuncertainties of cost and varioustechnical issues related to wind powerproduction; and (iii) demonstrating thefeasibility of wind power production inKazakhstan, as well as drawingattention to the potential future for theresults of these studies to get thenecessary political and financialsupport to move towards larger,commercial scale applications.Expected CO2 reduction as a result ofproject implementation is about0.15 million tonnes per year.

Development of solar energy at theinitial stage may annually reduce theamount of the GHG emissions by 0.9%of the baseline scenario. Installation ofsolar plants could reduce imports ofelectricity to the Southern regions. Atthe same time, it is a rather expensiveoption. The sphere of utilization ofthese plants, therefore, is limited toremote and difficult to access areas, andto consumers requiring smallcapacities.

One effective way of increasing theportion of natural gas in the energybalance is utilization of associated gasin oil fields. At present, the amount ofassociated gas burnt in flares at oilextraction is estimated to beapproximately 740 million m3. Expertsestimate the annual CO2 reductionpotential of associated gas utilizationfor energy generation purposes due tocoal replacement to be about 2.7 milliontonnes.

To develop and implement themeasures on GHG mitigationrecommended for inclusion in the NAPUNFCCC Kazakhstan will requiretechnical and financial support frominternational and donor institutions, aswell as private investments.Technology Transfer Mechanisms couldserve as an effective way of attractingthe funds. Development of TechnologyTransfer Mechanisms started inSeptember 1997, with USAID support.The main objectives for a possibletechnology cooperation framework are(1) determining the most effectivedomestic activities and the mechanismfor supporting domestic activities; and(2) developing sustainable businessesand markets to support development,adaptation, and use of energy efficiencyand renewable energy technologies.This mechanism should also providecommunicating climate changetechnology cooperation needs tointernational donors and securingfunding for renewable energy andenergy efficiency projects.

In the non-energy sector, increasingCO2 sinks by expanding forest area andconverting relatively unproductive


arable land into grasslands andrangelands are the most promisingmeasures. Measures like increasing thelivestock productivity and optimizationof the livestock population, biogasutilization, and optimization of areascovered with rice would providereductions of up to 20% of the methaneemissions from agriculture.

Methane emissions from the coalmining industry account for almost50% of the total methane emissions inKazakhstan. Utilization of coal bedmethane is one promising measure forCH4 emissions reduction.

Proposed Adaptation Measures

Results of the research showed highvulnerability of wheat production andwater resources of Kazakhstan topotential climate change impacts;therefore, the adaptation measures inthese sectors were assessed. Indeveloping and assessing theadaptation measures, flexibility andcost-effectiveness were taken as themain criteria. Moreover, measuresshould be adopted in respect to climatechange that are beneficial andnecessary for other reasons, so that ifthe climate does not change aspredicted, there will remain a net gainto the society for the effort.

In wheat production, the followingadaptation measures were identified asa priority: improving the transition to amarket economy by strengthening andclarifying the laws regarding the freemarket and agriculture; improvinginstitutions that observe marketconditions; changing land managementto reduce soil erosion and improve

arable lands; preventing pestinfestations and disease outbreaks; andestablishing (and maintaining atmodern levels) centers for thepreservation of the gene fund of springand winter wheat across the regions ofKazakhstan.

Adaptation assessment of waterresources was conducted for the Irtysh,Ishim, and Tobol river basins. Thefollowing adaptation measures weredefined as a priority: runoff regulation,a complex of water-saving measures,runoff shift, and increasingunderground water takeoff. In decidingthe priorities, preference was given,first of all, to measures which providemore water, require less funding, anddo not require diversion of runoff fromother basins.

Full practical implementation ofadaptation measures will requiresignificant investment and a longperiod of time.

Education, Training, Public Awarenessand NGOs

Development of educational and publicawareness programs on climate change,providing public access to informationon climate change issues and publicparticipation (including NGOs) areimportant parts of both implementationof the general obligations of UNFCCCand development of the National actionplan.

It is possible to obtain basicprofessional knowledge on thescientific aspects of the problem ofglobal climate change at severaluniversities in Kazakhstan. This


curriculum is to be supplemented withthe addition of the latest scientificinformation from climate changestudies. A program for high schools ondifferent aspects of climate change isalso currently being developed. Climatechange issues and study results arepresented in quarterly science andtechnical journals, newspapers, and onradio and TV.

The first Kazakhstan ScopingWorkshop on Preparation of theNational Action Plan on ClimateChange was held in April 1997, withthe support of USAID. Representativesfrom all related ministries, departments,scientific organizations, and severalforeign and international organizations,mass media and NGOs took part in theworkshop. The main objectives of theworkshop were presentation of theresults of climate change studies tomeet Kazakhstan’s obligations underthe UNFCCC; achievement of aconsensus on the NAP UNFCCCobjectives, sectors of interest andpriority mitigation and adaptationmeasures; and identification of theprocedures for developing an outlinefor the NAP FCCC and integrating itwith the other sectoral plans andecological programs of the Republic ofKazakhstan.

A network of ecological NGOs inKazakhstan is being actively expanded.However, only some of them haveclimate change projects. In 1997–1998,two NGOs implemented climatechange projects with the support ofGEF and USAID. The role of NGOs inimplementation of the UNFCCCcommitments will grow with the rise of

public awareness of climate changeissues.

Follow-up Activities

Formulating, implementing andregularly updating national programscontaining measures to mitigate climatechange and facilitate adequateadaptation to climate change impactsare the general commitments of allParties in accordance with Article 4 (1b)UNFCCC. These measures should beimplemented on a constant basis in allsectors of the economy, includingenergy, transport, industry, agriculture,forestry, water resources and wastemanagement.

In addition, to meet Kazakhstan’sobligations under UNFCCC, scientific,socio-economic and other studies willcontinue to be carried out observationsof the climate system, and supportclimate data bases which are necessaryto the understanding of climate changeand its causes. These are tasks forresearch institutes and groups ofexperts in climatology, energy,economy, and sociology. Climatechange monitoring is a task for theNational Meteorological Service andshould be financed both by thegovernment and internationalorganizations; particularly, WMO andUNEP.

Studies and assessments of measureson adequate adaptation to climatechange will also be continued. For themoment, adaptation is recognized to beimportant as mitigation measures ineffort to combat climate change.Adaptation assessments of the CaspianSea coastal zone as well as mudflow


and snow avalanche study for themountains of the South and South-Eastof the country are being developedwithin the Netherlands Climate ChangeStudies Assistance Programme during1998–1999.

After the government approves theNAP, a special group will conductactivity on evaluation, implementation,and monitoring of climate changeprojects. This group will also conducttenders for project proposals, correctand prepare them for financing. Thisgroup has been created in the NationalEcological Center for SustainableDevelopment in the Ministry ofEcology and National Resources.

In August 1998, the Government ofKazakhstan decided to sign the KyotoProtocol, and therefore, a number ofactivities are to be done in thefulfillment of its provisions.


Introduction

The Republic of Kazakhstan signed theUnited Nations Framework Conventionon Climate Change (further — theUNFCCC or the Convention) at theUnited Nations Conference on theEnvironment and Development in Riode Janeiro in June 1992. NursultanNazarbaev, the President of theRepublic of Kazakhstan, ratified theConvention on May 15, 1995.Kazakhstan lodged its instrument ofratification with the United NationsSecretary General.

The ultimate objective of the UNFCCC,as expressed in Article 2 is:"...stabilization of greenhouse gasconcentrations in the atmosphere at thelevel that would prevent dangerousanthropogenic interference with theclimate system. Such a level should beachieved within a time frame sufficientto allow ecosystems to adapt naturallyto climate change..." According to itscommitments, Kazakhstan, as a non-Annex I and non-Annex II country,should develop and provide theConference of the Parties through theSecretariat with national inventory ofGHG emissions, general description ofmeasures on realization of theConvention and information, relatingto achievement of the Conventiongoals.

Since 1993 Kazakhstan with support ofthe U.S. Agency for InternationalDevelopment through the US Country

Studies Program has been involved inthe following activities:

• Developing a national inventory ofanthropogenic emissions by sourcesand removals by sinks of allgreenhouse gases not controlled bythe Montreal Protocol for 1990 baseyear;

• Conducting vulnerabilityassessments for important nationaleconomic sectors and ecosystemsand developing recommendationson adaptation of these sectors toanticipated climate change;

• Conducting an evaluation of themitigation measures that control,reduce, or prevent anthropogenicGHG emissions in relevant sectorsfor the period through 2020;

• Developing Nation Action Plan onUNFCCC.

This national communicationsummarizes past studies, provides anoverview of the national circumstancesthat influence Kazakhstan's climatechange response capacity, reports theresults of the GHG national inventoryfor the years 1990, and 1994, andoutlines the main strategies andmeasures addressed to GHG emissionsreduction and adaptation to anticipatedclimate change.

INTRODUCTION 19

The national communication and theassessment of GHG emissions for1994 were prepared with support of the

Government of the Netherlandsthrough the Netherlands ClimateChange Studies Assistance Programme.


CHAPTER 1. National Circumstances

Most of the Kazakhstan's territory islocated in arid and semi-arid zones,which are considerably vulnerable toclimate change. Redistribution ofprecipitation and increased offrequency and intensity of droughts onthe background of air temperatureincrease will entail negativeconsequences, particularly inagriculture and water management ofthe country. Climate change can alsohave negative influence on humanhealth.

On the other hand Kazakhstan is one ofthe largest emitters in Central Asia andhas a considerable GHG reductionpotential. Therefore, climate changeissues are considered important in thecountry. In Kazakhstan, as in anytransition country, climate change is apriority only to the extent that it isrelated to the main national objectives –

protection of the environment andsustainable development. Actions in thecontext of climate change must meet along-term market-based and externallyoriented development strategy and fitinto other development programs, andthey will certainly require internationalassistance. Kazakhstan’s long-termnational priorities are to improve itsphysical infrastructure, increaseeconomic growth and employment,increase self-reliance, promote ruraldevelopment, and preserve theenvironment.

Table 1.1 presents information on thenational circumstances of the Republicof Kazakhstan for 1990 and 1994. Thesources of information were the officialreports of national statistics. In anumber of cases, when official data wasmissing, the expert estimations wereused.

CHAPTER 1. NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES 21

TABLE 1.1 NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES

Criteria 1990 1994

Area, thousand km2 2,724.9 2,724.9

Population, million inhabitants 16.7 16.2

Urban population, % 57.5 56.4

Population in absolute poverty, % 12 28

Life expectancy, years 69 65.7

Literacy rate, % 97.5-98a 96-97b

GDP in PPP, billion USDc 68.3 41.0

GDP in PPP per capita, USDc 4,089 2,442

Share of the informal sector in the economy, % 10b 15b

Share of industry in GDP,% 20.5 29.1

Share of services in GDP,% 26.8 42.8

Share of agriculture in GDP,% 34.0 14.9

Land area used for agricultural purposes, thousand km2 2,690.0 2,222.5

Livestock population, thousands

Cattle 9,818.4 8,072.9

Sheep and goats 36,605.0 25,132.1

Pigs 2,976.1 1,982.7

Horses 1,666.4 1,636.0

Camels 143.0 141.2

Poultry population, millions 59.8 32.7

Forest area, thousand km2 96.5 105.0

Grasslands, thousand km2 1,823.0 1,823.0

Source: Statistical Yearbook of Kazakhstan (1996)a Population census of 1989.b Expert judgments.c Calculated with the use of data provided by Statistics and Analysis Committee.

1.1 The Geography, Climateand Natural Resources

The Republic of Kazakhstan, a newlyindependent Euro-Asian country, wascreated on December 16, 1991 when theParliament had declared itsindependence.

Kazakhstan is located in Central Asiawithin 39°49'–55°49' N and 46°28'–87°18' E (Figure 1.1) at the center of the

Eurasian continent, nearly equidistantfrom the Atlantic and the PacificOceans. The landlocked country has theninth largest landmass of any countryin the world, 2,724.9 thousand squarekilometers. Kazakhstan borders Russiain the north and west, Kyrgyzstan,Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan in thesouth and China in the east. The totallength of the borders is more than12,187 kilometers.


FIGURE 1.1 THE REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN

This land is full of contrasts: fertilevalleys border on dry and barrenendless steppes. Its territory is locatedin four natural landscape zones: forest-steppe, steppe, semi-desert, and desert.Most of its territory is lowlands andplains bordered by high mountainranges of Altay and Tien Shan in theeast and the southeast. The mountainregions occupy about 10% of the totalterritory. The highest point inKazakhstan is Khan-Tengry peak(6,995 m above sea level), the lowestone is the Karagie hollow (132 m belowsea level), which is contiguous with theeast coast of the Caspian Sea.Kazakhstan also has a coastline of2,320 kilometers on the Caspian Sea.

The climate is continental, with widevariations throughout the territory. Inthe north average January temperatureis -18 °C and July average is 19 °C; in

the south the averages are -4 °C and26 °C correspondingly. In the northannual precipitation reaches 400 mm,less than 150 mm in the desert areasand 1,500 mm in mountain regions.Strong winds are typical for most partof Kazakhstan.

Although a share of the land area usedfor agricultural purposes is about 82%of the total area of Kazakhstan, it ismainly low productive pastures. Theshare of arable lands is only about 15%of the territory. More than 60% of totalarable land (about 23 million ha) are theland, brought under cultivation in1950s during the “virgin lands”campaign of the 1950s. This vast areasupports a dry and irrigated farming.Throughout the country, thetemperature sums for the growingseason are sufficient for the cultivationof all species of cereals grown in a


moderate temperature belt. However,there is a shortage of precipitation, andthe cultivation of cereals is onlypossible in the north, northeast and in anarrow foothill area in the southeast ofthe country. Conditions in the south arefavorable for heat-loving crops.

According to the official statistical data,forests cover only about 3.7% of theterritory or 9.65 million ha in 1990. In1994 the forests’ area enlarged to 4%,which amount 10.5 million ha.Coniferous forests cover 1.8 million ha.They are mainly extended at the Altayand Tien Shan Mountains and at theseparate tracks of KazakhMelkosopochnik. The rest of theforested area is made up of deciduousforests and bushes. The largest area,4.7 million ha, is made up of saksaul(Haloxylon), a deep-rooted, practicallyleafless tree typical for Asian deserts.Forests in Kazakhstan have not beenused for commercial purposes. Theyare used mainly for soil and waterprotection.

The river network has had only limiteddevelopment. However, rivers areextremely important for irrigation andpower generation. Kazakhstan also hasabout 57,000 lakes and more than4,000 artificial reservoirs. The largestnatural reservoirs are Caspian andAral Seas.

Kazakhstan is richly endowed withnatural and energy resources. It has thegreat reserves of iron, copper, lead,chrome, coal, oil, and phosphorites.

1.2 Population

In 1990, the population of Kazakhstanwas 16.7 million, and in 1994, it wasabout 16.2 million. Kazakhstan is one ofthe most sparsely populated regions inthe world, with an average density ofabout 6.2 per square kilometer. Thedistribution of the population is veryuneven. While the population densityin the southern areas is 16.8 people persquare kilometer, in the central parts itis only about 1.6.

The Republic of Kazakhstan is amultinational country. Today, morethan a hundred nationalities live inKazakhstan. Kazakhs and Russiansconstitute the two most importantethnic groups, represented 44% and36% of the population correspondingly.The remaining 20% are distributed overthe other nationalities – Germans,Koreans, Tatars, Uzbeks, and others.

There are 14 administrative regions(oblasts) and more than 80 cities andtowns in the republic. The urbanpopulation predominates; its share in1990 was 57.5% and in 1994 – 56.4%.Average life expectancy in the countryin 1994 was 69 years, which is similar tothe average in upper middle incomecountries. Infant mortality was 26 per1,000, lower than in Europe (30 per1,000), but higher than in Russia andthe FSU. The natural gain of thepopulation for the last 10 years hasdecreased on 50.9%. According to theWorld Bank reports, adult literacy iscomparable with that one in economieswith per capita GDP above 6,000 USD.


The socio-economic decline led to theliving standards reduction of the mostof Kazakhstan citizens during the lastfew years. The transition to the marketeconomy caused problems of povertyand unemployment and emigration. Arecent emigration wave has resulted ina substantial decrease in population ofabout 5.3% from 1994 to 1997.However, according to the macro-economic scenarios, in 2030 populationwill increase by 22.8% in comparison to1990 level.

1.3 Overview of Kazakhstan’sEconomy

Kazakhstan's transition to a marketeconomy began in 1991 with tentativeproperty privatization and institutionalmeasures. In 1990, gross domesticproduct (GDP) in purchasing powerparity (PPP) amounted to 4,089 USDper capita; in 1994, it was 2,442 USD.Thus, for the period 1990 to 1994, theGDP slid 40%, reflecting the difficultiesof the transition period.

Recent World Bank economic reportsindicate that the main macro-economictrends can be characterized by the 50%GDP in real terms decline from 1990 to1997. The factors caused the outputcontraction in Kazakhstan and otherFSU republics were the breakdown ofsupply links between enterpriseswithin the FSU and the fall in sale oftraditionally exported products (non-ferrous metals, phosphoric fertilizers).The further development of economicreform should provide a more solidfoundation for the sustainable growthand employment for all sectors after

overcoming the drastic downfall of the1990–1998 period.

Kazakhstan is an important producer ofgold, iron ore, and coal, copper,chrome, tungsten, and zinc. It has closeto half of the total reserves of lead,wolfram, copper, and zinc and theother mineral resources found inexploitable amounts within theeconomy, such as oil, natural gas,nickel, titanium, tungsten,molybdenum, lead, zinc, manganese,and aluminum.

Kazakhstan is a great producer and netexporter of oil. Recoverable oil reservesare estimated at 12 billion barrels. Thecurrent level of production is470,000 bbl/day. Production is mostlylocated in the western part of therepublic near the Caspian Sea. Theexploitation of the big oil field hasbegun on the south near the Aral Sea.The two largest refineries are located inthe eastern part. The majority of thecountry's production is, therefore,exported, while crude oil for itsrefineries was imported from centralSiberia. Last years import had beendecreasing, because of the economiclinks breakdown. Currently the oilproduction increases, and much higherproduction levels are expected as newhuge oil fields are brought on stream byinternational and foreign petroleumcompanies.

Industry, which share accounted forabout 20.5% of GDP in 1990 and 30% –in 1994 (see Table 1.1), is dominated bymining and processing activities,largely geared to exploiting the richnatural resource base. The processing


plants for both ferrous and nonferrousmetals, heavy engineering, andmetalworking plants are mainly locatedin the northern and eastern regionsclose to the mineral deposits.

Kazakhstan has a variety of developedagro-processing industries. Food andlight industries of Kazakhstan includemeat, fish and vegetables canneries,woodworking, wineries, and footwearand textile manufacture.

Agriculture, one of the main sectors inthe Kazakhstan economy, wascontributing 34% in GDP in 1990, andabout 15% in 1994. The country is asignificant producer and exporter ofagricultural products. The mostimportant agricultural crops includewheat, maize for fodder, potatoes. Thefood and light industries exploit themain industrial crops — cotton andsugar beets, which are cultivated in thesouth of Kazakhstan. The vegetablesgrow throughout the country, fruitsand grapes – in the south andsoutheast.

Livestock is the most importantagricultural industry, based on theextensive opportunities for grazing.Sheep-breading activity is most widelyspread traditional branch of theKazakhstan livestock husbandry.

The share of services in GDP hasincreased from 26.8 to 42.8% for theperiod from 1990 to 1994, because ofincreasing share of private sector andretail trade development.

The geographical characteristics of thecountry influenced the development of

the Kazakhstan transport system. Themost part of freight transport isdominated by rail sector. There are5.4 kilometers of railways per1,000 square kilometers. Within theFSU, Kazakhstan railways are the thirdlargest railway system in terms oftraffic volume and rolling stock. Fordistant areas, road transport is veryimportant. The total length of hardsurfaced road is equal 115.5 thousandkilometers or 38 kilometers of per1,000 square kilometers.

Kazakhstan has trade communicationsand economy links with many FSUrepublics, especially Russia. China andsome Eastern European countries havebeen the largest of these tradingpartners outside the FSU. From 1990 to1994, Kazakhstan had very high rates ofall basic parameters of tradedevelopment. The commodity stocks ina retail network have increased in5.5 times for this period.

1.4 Overview of the EnergySector

1.4.1 Resources

Kazakhstan has huge reserves ofenergy resources, which is sufficient tomeet the domestic needs as well as toexport the resources in their naturalform and in the form of electricity tothe other regions.

In 1990, the total output of the primaryenergy resources in Kazakhstanamounted to 119.4 million toe or170.7 million tce (Table 1.2).


There was prevalence of hard and, inless degree, brown coal (lignite) in theenergy resources balance in 1990. Theshare of the coal was 80% in the energyproduction sector, and 40-50% – in theresidential sector. The total coalconsumption was about 91 milliontonnes, of which 11 million tonnes wereimported from Russia and CentralAsian countries. The energy andresidential sectors consumed76 million tonnes of coal and industryused 15 million tonnes.

In 1990, the crude oil and gascondensate output in the republic wasequal to 26.6 million tonnes, whereas12.66 million tonnes was imported forcomplete needs of refineries. TheRepublic of Kazakhstan is a large oilexporter, as it annually export is about20 million tonnes of crude oil.

The current natural gas output inKazakhstan is about 7.9 billion m3, andonly 2.9 billion m3 is refined locally,about 0.65 billion cubic meters ofassociated gas is burned in the torches.The rest of the gas amount is exportedfor refining to Russia. The countrymeets its basic needs in gas (about16 billion cubic meters) at the expense

of import from the other regions,mainly, from Russia and Uzbekistan.The import approximately makes12.8 million cubic meters. In thecountry fuel balance, the share of gas isless than 15%.

The renewable energy (RE) resourcepotential in Kazakhstan is significantbut was largely neglected. RE resourcesdevelopment would be suitable forelectricity production at the nationaland local level and is suitable to servesmall distributed loads.

Kazakhstan's hydro potential is quitelarge amounting to an estimated170 TWh/year, of which only about23.5 TWh/year has been exploited.Within the total, small hydro potential,defined as units of less than 10 MW, issignificant. Based on existing studies,there is at least 453 potential smallhydroelectric power projects with1,380 MW of total installed capacity and6.3 TWh of mean annual production.Some of them consist of existingirrigation channels, which makes themmore readily available forimplementation (at lower cost andshorter time period).

TABLE 1.2 PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION OF PRIMARY ENERGY RESOURCES IN 1990

Primary Energy Resource Production,million toe

Share of Total PrimaryEnergy Resources, %

Consumption,million toe

Coal 58.90 49.30 49.30

Crude oil 25.80 21.60 19.95

Gas 6.16 5.20 11.56

Nuclear fuel 27.90 23.40 0.58

Renewable sources 0.63 0.50 0.63

Total 119.40 100.00 81.02


Kazakhstan has a great possibility ofthe wind power use, especially in theregions of Dzhungar Gates and Chillikwind corridor, where the annualaverage wind velocity is estimated inthe range of 7 to 9 m/s and of 5 to9 m/s correspondingly. Closeproximity of existing high-voltagetransmission lines, good correlation ofthe windy seasons and the highdemand for the electricity provide theconditions to use these resourceseffectively.

In spite of the geographical location,Kazakhstan has sufficient solar energyresources potential. There are between2,200 and 3,000 hours of sunshine peryear and insolation energy is 1,300–1,800 kWh per square meter per year.This allows using of the sun water-heater and sun batteries, in particularportable photovoltaic applications inthe rural area on the cattle farms.

In 1990 the total renewable-basedenergy production (including hydroenergy) was 7.35 billion kWh, or 8.4%of total energy production. Currentshare of the RE amounts 0.3% of totalenergy production, 80% of whichaccounts for small hydro.

1.4.2 Energy Transformation andDistribution

Energy sector plays a significant role inthe future economic development of thecountry. However, with the largeenergy resources, Kazakhstan hasserious electricity deficits, which haveto be covered by imports from Russiaand other Central Asian countries.Furthermore, the size of the country's

territory and its geography (desert landdividing north from south) togetherwith the concentration of coal depositsin the north, require high investmentsin transmission systems with attendanthigh losses and low reliability. Thepower sector needs considerablerehabilitation and serious upgrading ifthe country is to decrease its heavyreliance on electricity imports.

Ten energy distribution systems wereformed in Kazakhstan by the lateeighties. They provided energyconnection with Russia and the centralAsian republics. The vast territory ofthe republic predetermined the hugetotal length of electricity transmissionnetwork, which was about half amillion kilometers.

The management structure and formsof property of the distribution systemhave been radically changed recently.In transition from the planned economyto the market one indivisible powerengineering system, all the generatorsand the transit and energy distributionnetworks being its indispensable parts,were reorganized. To develop thecompetitive conditions, all thegenerators got independence as joint-stock companies, some of them havebeen sold to the foreign investors, andthe rest are in the process of selling. Theregional energy distribution networkshave also been reorganized into joint-stock companies and are nominated forthe auctions. The national energysystem company "Kazakhstanenergo"has been reorganized into KazakhElectricity Grid Operation Company(“KEGOC”) which is joint-stockventure, but it is preserved as the state


property. Thus, the power sector ofKazakhstan is going out of thegovernmental subordination. Thegovernment preserves the regulatoryfunctions in accordance with the Lawon the Power Engineering.

1.4.3 Consumption

As a result of the process of profoundeconomic reforms, crises of thetransition period and disintegration ofthe industry and economy complex ofthe former USSR, the demand forenergy in Kazakhstan has beendecreased over past several years. Since1990 to 1997, the energy consumptionhas fallen by 47.6 billion kWh or onabout 45% of the level of 1990. It shouldbe noted that the share of hydropowerenergy increased because its totalelectricity production remainedpractically the same.

Electricity demand projections by2030 under the “maximum” and“minimum” scenarios, according to the"Energy sector development strategyuntil 2030" project are presented inTable 1.3. It can be seen from the tablethat electricity demand level of1990 will be reached in 2015 and2010 according to "maximum" and

"minimum" energy demand scenariosrespectively. It would be possible tomeet the increasing electricity and heatdemand by restoration of the energyproduction up to the level of 1990 onthe existing modernized power plants,as well as by installation of newturbines on a number of power stations.It is expected besides, that the totalenergy production on the renewableenergy resources will reach 10.7 TWh(including wind energy) in 2030. Thetotal share of these resources (mainlyhydro and wind resources) in theoverall energy production will amountto 7% in 2030.

1.4.4 Energy Strategy

The Energy Strategy in Kazakhstan iselaborated in accordance with thePresident’s Strategy of theDevelopment of Kazakhstan up to theyear of 2030, and is based on theanalysis of the world powerengineering market development andthe domestic potential of the country.

The main goal of the Energy Strategy ofKazakhstan is definition of the waysand development of the means for themost efficient use of the energyresources and power production

TABLE 1.3 ELECTRICITY DEMAND PROJECTIONS ACCORDING TO DIFFERENT ENERGY DEVELOPMENTSCENARIOS UNTIL 2030 (TWH)

Scenario 1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030

Maximum 104.7 74.4 66.2 57.1 60.0 65.0 80.0 95.0 110.0 120.0 130.0 145.0

Intermediate 104.7 74.4 66.2 57.1 56.0 57.0 60.0 80.0 95.0 105.0 115.0 130.0

Minimum 104.7 74.4 66.2 57.1 54.6 55.5 57.0 67.5 78.0 88.0 98.0 115.0

Source: Energy Development Strategy until 2030 (June 1998).


complex, in order to rise the livingstandards of the population and thesocio-economic development of thecountry.

The most important objectives of theEnergy Strategy are as follows:

• to reduce significantly the impact ofthe fuel and energy productioncomplex on the environment;

• to preserve and strengthen energyindependence and security of thecountry.

The highest priority of the EnergyStrategy is increase of energy efficiencyand energy-saving improvement. Inaccordance with the developedstrategy, rational energy consumptionwill prevent an increase of the energydemand, which is ruinous for thecountry and beyond the possibilities ofthe fuel and energy complex. It willalso give an economic effect of fivefoldreturn on energy-saving expenditures.

Energy saving will make it possible toreduce the detrimental emissions intothe atmosphere by 15-20%. Savedenergy resources should be the mainsource to provide the necessary fueland energy export.

The strategy in the area of developmentof structure of the energy sector for thenearest 15-30 years is addressed to thefollowing action:

• to increase the share of oil in thenational energy balance and export,and increase efficiency of its use;

• to increase the share of natural andassociated gas in the energy balanceand efficiency of its use;

• to have a profound refinery andcombined use of the rawhydrocarbons as a high priority;

• to improve coals quality throughtheir profound enrichment andelectrochemical refinery, theconfinement of the high-ash bedsexploitation, stabilization and thenthe increase of the coal miningvolume (mainly, using the stripmining method) in the course ofdevelopment of ecologically fittechnologies;

• to intensify the local powerresources development (hydroenergy, small deposits ofhydrocarbons, etc.);

• to increase use of nontraditionalrenewable energy sources (wind,solar, geothermal waters, coalbedmethane, biogas, etc.).

The highest priority of the EnergyStrategy is improvement in energyefficiency and energy saving. The mainway to achieve the goals andimplement the priorities of the EnergyStrategy is to develop a power andenergy market regulated by theGovernment.


1.5 National Organizations forCoordinating ClimateChange Studies andUNFCCC Activities inKazakhstan

At present, a national lead agency forcoordinating activities both on theUNFCCC and the other ratifiedenvironmental conventions inKazakhstan is the Ministry of Ecologyand Natural Resources.

Since October 1993, the works onclimate change issues in the frameworkof the UNFCCC have been carried outby the Main Administration onHydrometeorology (Kazhydromet) andthe Kazakh Scientific and ResearchInstitute of Environmental Monitoringand Climate (Russian abbreviation isKazNIIMOSK). The Climate ChangeStudy Laboratory was organized inKazNIIMOSK. Experts from differentsectors, ministries, and institutionswere involved into the climate change

study team. The Initial NationalCommunication of the Republic ofKazakhstan is based on the resultsobtained by this team, including GHGemission inventory, vulnerability andadaptation assessment, and mitigationanalysis.

After the Third Conference of theUNFCCC Parties in Kyoto, the workson climate change have been mademore active in Kazakhstan. In February1998, the Interagency CoordinatingCommittee was established forimplementation of the UNFCCCprovisions and decision-makingprocedures for climate change matters.It includes representatives frominterested national ministries and othernational entities and is leaded by theMinistry of Ecology and NaturalResources. In April 1998 the NationalEcological Center for SustainableDevelopment were organized underthis Ministry. It consists of the nationalcoordinators on the UN environmentalconventions.

CHAPTER 2. POSSIBLE CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACTS 31

CHAPTER 2. Possible Climate Change and ItsImpacts

The most part of the territory ofKazakhstan is deserts and semi-desertsthat are rather vulnerable to climatechange. Redistribution of precipitationand both the increase of frequency andintensity of droughts against thebackground of the air temperatureincrease will result in especiallyadverse consequences in agriculture,forestry, and water resources of thecountry. Possible influence of climatechange on human health can benegative because of strengthening heatstress, especially in southern areas, anddistribution of many kinds of diseasesas well.

2.1 Climate Observation

Systematic observation, development ofdata archives and researches related tothe climate system and intended tofurther the understanding and toreduce or eliminate the remaininguncertainties regarding the causes,effects, magnitude and timing ofclimate change are among the commoncommitments of Parties of UNFCCC.Therefore, Kazakhstan’s NAP UNFCCCincludes support of state climateobservation network.

Climate records are essential todevelopment of strategies to mitigatepotentially adverse effects of climatechange and assessment of climate

impact. Climate observations andinvestigations are carried out accordingto the recommendation of the WorldClimatic Program (WCP) of the WorldMeteorological Organization (WMO).Currently meteorological observationsare maintained on 251 stations inKazakhstan. There are 35 ReferenceClimate Stations in Kazakhstan.Annually issued National Report onState of Environment of the Republic ofKazakhstan includes analysis of climateabnormality based on the dataobserved.

The Republican HydrometeorologicalData Fund collects and managesclimate information. Climate databankscreated in Kazhydromet andKazNIIMOSK are used in applicationsand research efforts. Climate trends andvariability detection is based on thecollected data.

2.2 Observed Climate Change

Meteorological observations at somestations in Kazakhstan started morethan 100 years ago. This allowedestimation of a regional climate changeover the period.

Surface air temperature. The tendency ofincrease of average seasonal and annualair temperatures was observed duringlast centenary period in Kazakhstan(Table 2.1 and Figure 2.1). Maximal


TABLE 2.1 LINEAR TREND COEFFICIENTS FOR MEAN ANNUAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATIONAVERAGED OVER THE TERRITORY OF KAZAKHSTAN FOR THE PERIOD 1894–1997

Period Temperature,

°C/100 years

Precipitation,mm/100 years

Winter 1.8 -7

Spring 1.9 3

Summer 0.8 1

Autumn 0.7 1

Annual 1.3 -17

warming occurs in the spring period.Over the region, the mean annualsurface temperature rose by about1.3 °C during 1894–1997.

The comparison between averagetemperatures for 1961–1990 and forprevious three decades has shown thatthis period has appeared warmer,especially in northern part of the regionin winter and spring. As well as on aglobal scale, the warmest years forKazakhstan were during the eighties.The highest temperatures during lastyears were observed in 1995, howeverthe anomaly of temperature of this yearhas not exceeded the extreme value,which was observed in 1983.

Precipitation. A negative trend of thetotal precipitation for the period 1894–1997 was observed over the territory ofKazakhstan. The decrease in annualprecipitation, and in winterprecipitation over the region was low.The increase in spring rainfall, and insummer and autumn and winterrainfall was slight as well (Table 2.1).Compared to 1931–1960, the averagelong-term annual sums of precipitationfor the period 1961–1990 practicallyhave not changed. Such regime ofrainfall on the background ofsignificant temperature rise is anevidence of increase in climate aridnessover the most part of Kazakhstanwithin last century.


FIGURE 2.1 TIME-SERIES AND LINEAR TREND OF MEAN ANNUAL SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE (T)AND SUM OF PRECIPITATION (R) AVERAGED OVER THE TERRITORY OF KAZAKHSTANFOR 1894-1997

4

5

6

7

8

9

1894 1904 1914 1924 1934 1944 1954 1964 1974 1984 1994

T, ??

200

250

300

350

400

450

1894 1904 1914 1924 1934 1944 1954 1964 1974 1984 1994

R, mm


2.3 Expected Climate Change

Regional climate change scenarios wereprepared from General CirculationModels (GCM) outputs, that werepromoted within the framework ofUnited States Country Studies fromNational Center for AtmosphericResearch. The following model outputswere used: GFDL and GFDL-T –equilibrium and non-equilibriummodels of Geophysical Fluid DynamicsLaboratory (University of Princeton,USA); UKMO – equilibrium model ofthe Meteorological Agency the UnitedKingdom; CCC – equilibrium model ofthe Canadian Climate Center; GISS –equilibrium model of the GoddardInstitute of Space Studies (USA).

Under doubling CO2 conditions that areexpected to occur by 2050–2075 averageannual and average monthlytemperatures over Kazakhstan areprojected to increase considerablyaccording to the considered GCMs.Precipitation change scenarios are lessconclusive. According to most modelsan annual increase of precipitation isexpected, according to some others

rainfall would be similar to those atpresent or will decrease (Table 2.2). Allmodels predict also various rainfallchanges on seasons.

The results of the analysis show a rangeof possible temperature increase overthe region. According to the “maximalwarming” scenario (UKMO) changes inannual average air temperature and thesum of precipitation are expected to be6.9 °C and –12%, respectively, underdouble CO2 conditions.

The highest temperature rise andsignificant decrease in rainfall isexpected to occur in winter andsummer. Under the "minimal warming"scenario (GISS) the increase in averageannual temperature is expected to be4.5 °C. This scenario implies an increasein the annual sum of precipitation by28% on average. In the other scenarios,the growth of average annualtemperature is expected to be 4.9–6.9 °Caccompanied with increase inprecipitation by 2–24%. Most of themodels predict the maximumtemperature increase in the wintermonths.

TABLE 2.2 CHANGES IN AVERAGE ANNUAL TEMPERATURE AND SUM OF PRECIPITATION OVER THETERRITORY OF KAZAKHSTAN ACCORDING TO CONSIDERED GCMS

GCM Changes in Average Annual Temperature, °C Changes in Annual Sum of Precipitation, %

GISS 4.5 28

GFDL 4.9 24

UKMO 6.9 -12

CCC 6.9 2

GFDL-T 4.9 7


To select the GCMs for creating climatechange scenarios, regional modeloutputs for the present climate werecompared with observed climate data.From comparison, the GFDL modelwas found to give the best estimate ofthe observed climate.

2.4 Vulnerability Assessment

Assessment of the potential climatechange impact on the ecosystems andsome economy sectors was conductedon the base of the developed regionalscenarios.

2.4.1 Humidity Zones

According to the GCM calculationresults, the global-scale surfacetemperature increase leads to theprecipitation increase in the high andmoderate latitudes. However, in someregions considerable temperatureincrease can result in aridity. Abouttwo thirds of Kazakhstan’s territory arelocated in arid and semi-arid zones.That is why even slight change of themain climate characteristics can lead tothe irreversible consequences. Complexassessment of the temperature andprecipitation change impact on thehumidity extent of the Kazakhstan

territory allowed determining thepossible shifts of the natural landscapezone borders.

According to the IPCC classification,under the present climate conditionsthe plain territory of Kazakhstaninvolves three humidity zones: arid,semi-arid, and sub-humid. Arid zonecoincides with the desert landscapezone, semi-arid — with the semi-desertzone. Sub-humid zone conforms to thesteppe zone. Figure 2.2 andTable 2.3 present ratios between thehumidity zone areas of the plainterritory of the region under the presentclimate conditions and underCO2 concentration doubling.

The data of the Table 2.3 show that allthe models predict the humidityconditions worsening in the regionunder the climate change, as the aridand hyper-arid zone areas will extend,and the semi-arid zone area willreduce. According to the scenario ofminimum warming, the humidityzones boundaries will shift to the northfor about 50-100 km, and for 350-400 km – under the maximum warmingscenario.

TABLE 2.3 HUMIDITY ZONES’ AREAS OF THE FLAT TERRITORY OF KAZAKHSTAN UNDER THE CURRENTCLIMATE CONDITIONS AND UNDER THE CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS (PERCENTAGE)

Humidity Zones 1951–1980 GFDL GISS UKMO CCC GFDL-T

Hyper-Arid — — 4.9 37.8 34.5 22.1

Arid 48.9 58.8 48.2 42.3 40.3 38.2

Semi-Arid 23.5 33.8 25.2 19.9 20.6 29.5

Sub-Humid 27.6 7.4 21.7 — 4.6 10.2


All the models predict the humidityconditions worsening in the region. Thesub-humid zone area, where inKazakhstan the grain-crops arecultivated under the actual climateconditions, will be reduced by 6 to 23%.Under the UKMO scenario, whichpredicts the maximum warming, thesub-humid zone disappears fromKazakhstan’s territory, and the hyper-arid zone arises, which will occupy 38%of the Republic’s area. Such a nature ofclimate change will definitely affect theeconomy and natural resources of thecountry.

Besides that, the soils of these zones areexposed to the degradation, whichhappens as the result of poor landmanagement, and due to climatechange. As the studies showed, in

Kazakhstan the desertification occursnot only in semi-desert zones, but alsoin the steppe sub-humid zone, which isthe main country’s granary, wheremany desertification features ofanthropogenic nature have taken placealready. Combination of climate changeand the anthropogenic impacts canaccelerate these processes considerablyin the near future.

2.4.2 Wheat Production

Most part of the arable land inKazakhstan is located in the zone ofrisk agriculture. Therefore, the yield ofwheat, which is one of the main graincrops, can be especially vulnerable tothe expected climate change. Springwheat yield could decrease by 27%under climate change. According to the

FIGURE 2.2 HUMIDITY ZONES PERCENTAGE UNDER THE CURRENT CLIMATE AND CLIMATE CHANGESCENARIOS

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1951-1980 GFDL GISS GFDL-T CCC UKMO

Hyper-Arid AridSemi-Arid Sub-Humid


scenario of maximum warming, theyield decrease can reach 70% in someregions. Winter wheat yield can slightlyincrease, but its cultivation will bepossible only on limited areas.

2.4.3 Grasslands

Studies of grassland vegetationvulnerability, without taking intoaccount the effects of the CO2 fertilizereffect on the biomass growth, haveshown that 10-40% increase ingrassland vegetation productivity canbe expected in spring due toprecipitation increase. However, in thesecond part of the vegetation period theconsiderable temperature increase willnegatively affect natural grasslands.According to the scenario of maximumwarming, grassland vegetationproductivity will decrease by 30-90%for this period. The plants with thesurface root system, which heavily relyon precipitation, will be particularlyvulnerable.

2.4.4 Sheep Breeding

Sheep breeding productivityassessment was carried out for thesouth and southeast regions ofKazakhstan. It was estimated thatexpected climate change in generalwould have the negative impact on thesheep-breeding productivity due toboth grassland yield decrease and thedirect impact of increase in duration ofstable hot weather periods on thesheep. According to the differentscenarios, these periods duration willincrease by 27-57 days. Lambs’ output

will decrease by 5-25%, and woolproductivity will reduce by 10-20%.

2.4.5 Water Resources

Kazakhstan is one of the regions oflimited water availability. Kazakhstan’swater resources total approximately121 billion m3 or 24 thousand m3 perone square kilometer. The waterresources mainly consist of surfacewater. A surface water resourcesvulnerability assessment wasconducted on case studies for the Northand East Kazakhstan river basins:Tobol, Uba, Ulba, Irtysh, and Ishim.The vulnerability assessment with theuse of incremental climate changescenarios showed that the presentamount of surface water resourcesmight be stable if the air temperatureincrease by 2-3 °C would becompensated by 20% precipitationincrease. The results of the waterresources vulnerability assessment withthe use of GCM scenarios are presentedin Table 2.4. Surface water resources ofthe Ishim river basin can be mostvulnerable. According to the scenario ofmaximum warming, the surface waterresources of the Ishim river basin willbe reduced by 73%. The reduction isexpected to be 34-37% under the otherscenarios. The surface water resourcesof the other basins will be reduced by9-29% under the all consideredscenarios with the exception thescenario of minimum warming.According to this scenario the surfacewater resources increase is expected tobe about 6% in the most of river basins.


TABLE 2.4 CHANGE IN NORTH AND EAST KAZAKHSTAN SURFACE WATER RESOURCES UNDERPOSSIBLE CLIMATE CHANGE

Surface Water Resources Change under ClimateChange Scenarios, %River Basin Natural Surface Water Resources,

million m3

Minimum Warming Maximum Warming

North Kazakhstan

Irtysh 29,140 6 -27

Ishim 2,546 -34 -73

Tobol 1,850 25 -9

East Kazakhstan

Irtysh 33,660 6 -27

Uba and Ulba 8,889 6 -23

Vulnerability studies with the use ofoutputs of non-equilibrium globalcirculation model GFDL-T show that inthe nearest future under slighttemperature increase the surface waterresources can increase (in the basins ofmountain rivers Uba and Ulba) or theirreduction can be insignificant.However, as the climate aridityincreases, the tendency for surfacewater resources reductionpredominates. Annual runoffredistribution can occur as well: duringthe low water period the runoff willincrease, during the high water it will

decrease. The high flooding probabilitywill also decrease.

The territory of Kazakhstan has a greatvariety of runoff formation conditions.The study conducted does not cover thewhole territory. Particularly, the basinsof the glacial-fed rivers are not studied.Therefore, the above results of thewater resources vulnerabilityassessment should not be disseminatedthroughout the territory of Kazakhstanwithout the additional studies of waterobjects in the other regions.

CHAPTER 3. NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION INVENTORY 39

CHAPTER 3. National Greenhouse Gas EmissionInventory

In accordance with Articles 4 and 12 ofthe United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change eachParty must include in the NationalCommunication national inventories ofanthropogenic emissions by sourcesand removals by sinks of allgreenhouse gases, not controlled by theMontreal Protocol "to the extent itscapacities permit, using comparablemethodologies." The year 1990 isrecommended by the UNFCCC to beused as a reference year for theAnnexes 1 and 2 countries. For thesecountries, the UNFCCC requires annualreporting of greenhouse gasinventories, for all others, includingKazakhstan, the 1994 data arerecommended to be included into thenational communications.

This chapter provides a summary ofanthropogenic greenhouse gasemissions and sinks in Kazakhstan in1990 and 1994, as well as a briefdescription of the methodologies usedto estimate them and the associateduncertainties. The 1990 inventory wascompiled with the technical andfinancial support of the U.S. CountryStudies Program. Interim results werepresented in a number of articles andsynthesis reports published within theframework of the program. Estimationof greenhouse gas emissions and sinksin 1994 and refinement of the1990 inventory were made under the

Netherlands Climate Change StudiesAssistance Programme.

3.1 Methodology

The main greenhouse gases are watervapor, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane(CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and ozone(O3), which may have either natural oranthropogenic origin. Some othercompounds, which are products ofhuman industrial activity, such aschlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and theirsubstitutes, hydrofluorocarbons(HFCs), hydrochlorofluorocarbons(HCFCs) and some other compoundsare also greenhouse gases. However,the FCCC excludes those gases, sincetheir production and consumption isregulated by the Montreal Protocol.

There are some other gases, such ascarbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides(NOX) and non-methane volatileorganic compounds (NMVOC),although not direct greenhouse gases,do contribute indirectly to thegreenhouse effect by creatingtropospheric ozone, which absorbthermal radiation of the Earth surface.Therefore, these gases should besubjects for an inventory. According tothe IPCC assessments as of the end of1980s, the contribution of carbondioxide emissions to the enhancedgreenhouse effect was estimated at66%, methane – 17%, nitrous oxide –5%, the rest 12% was attributed tochlorofluorocarbons.


The main requirement in conductingnational GHG inventories is to applythe calculating methodologies agreedupon and adopted by the Conference ofthe Parties, which ensures internationalcomparability and compatibility ofresults. The IPCC Guidelines of1995 were taken as the methodologicalbasis for estimating GHG emissionsand sinks while conducting the nationalGHG inventory. In some cases originalmethodology was applied (e.g., forcalculating emissions from the carbideproduction) or methodology slightlydifferent from that of the IPCC (forestimating the carbon dioxideabsorption by forests). Nevertheless,the main requirements for themethodology of national GHGinventory development were observed.

In accordance with the IPCCGuidelines, Kazakhstan's inventory isdivided into five main categories:Energy Activities, Industrial Processes,Agriculture, Land Use Change andForestry, and Waste Management. Thenational GHG inventory representsemission data on three gases with adirect greenhouse effect: carbondioxide, methane and nitrous oxide;and on three gases with an indirectgreenhouse effect: carbon monoxide,oxides of nitrogen and non-methanevolatile organic compounds1.

Two approaches were used to estimateemissions of carbon dioxide, the mostsignificant greenhouse gas. In the firstcase, CO2 emissions were estimated foreach fuel type, based on the totalnational consumption, and then the 1 NMVOC emissions were estimated only for 1990

values were summed (top down). In thesecond approach, emissions wereestimated for separate sectors andsource categories, and then emissionswere also summed (bottom up). Usageof these two approaches in theKazakhstan's inventory allows in thefirst case to judge about the fuelspectrum of the carbon dioxideemissions, and in the second case –about the sector distribution. In bothapproaches, the default IPCC emissionfactors for each fuel type were used.Preliminary estimation shows thatdifference between the two approachesis about 10%.

Methane emissions were calculated forthe fuel industry and for agriculture. Toevaluate the amount of emissions fromcoal mining and hydrocarbon fuelextraction the amount of extracted fuelwas multiplied by the emission factor,which depends upon the type of coalmining or upon the stage of fuelprocessing in the oil and gas sector.Methane emissions from livestock wereevaluated by multiplying the livestockpopulation (cattle, sheep, etc.) by thecorresponding emissions coefficients.The type of plantations flooding, thearea, and rice vegetation period weretaken into account for estimation ofmethane emissions from riceproduction.

Nitrous oxide emissions from fossil fuelcombustion were obtained bymultiplying the energy content of coal,oil products, and gas consumed by thecorresponding emission factors, givenin the IPCC Guidelines. Emissions ofindirect greenhouse gases such ascarbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides


were not calculated, but were takendirectly from the national statisticalreports since these gases are toxic andare therefore recorded due to theregulations of the Republic ofKazakhstan. NMVOC emissions werepossible to estimate only for internalcombustion engines in 1990. They werebased on the information provided bythe Ministry of Transport andCommunications.

Data used in the initial GHG emissionsinventory for 1990 were provided bythe Ministries of Energy, Industry, andAgriculture. Later on, the results of theinventory were refined. In thepresented inventory, additionalinformation of the Statistics Agency ofthe Republic of Kazakhstan about thefuel consumption in 1990 was takeninto account.

For the 1994, inventory data wereobtained from the Statistics Agency ofthe Republic of Kazakhstan, Ministry ofEnergy, Industry and Trade, andMinistry of Agriculture. Due to rapidlychanging institutional and economicalconditions of the transition period anddifficulties in data collection structures,initial data for 1990 and 1994 were notalways congruent.

Hence, 1990 CO2 emissions in thecategory "Industry" wereunderestimated due to lack ofinformation on individual subsectors.Transport and residential sector data

for 1994 were more detailed than for1990. Moreover, in the 1994 inventorysome categories, for which there is nosufficient substantiation of calculationmethodology, were not included. Thisconcerns category "Forest andGrassland Conversion" and calculationsof emissions caused by carbideproduction. On the other hand, for theyear 1994 emissions from industrialwastewater could be calculated sincerequired data had been obtained.

Additionally, certain differences in thedegree of the initial data comprehen-siveness, differences in the informationsources, as well as structuralreorganization of the economy, thatoccurred from 1990 through 1994,resulted in that the results of the twoinventories on individual subcategoriesare not comparable. Nevertheless, totalemissions and emissions from the maincategories are quite comparable and toa certain extent reflect the decline of thenational economy during the period of1990–1994. Furthermore, the GHGinventories both for 1990 and for 1994,are subjects to an improvement andwill be updated in light of new dataand calculation methodologies.

The IPCC recommends to present theinventory results in both real units andrelative units of CO2-equivalent. Thelatter are used to compare the variousgases emissions contribution to the totalemissions and depend upon the valueof the global warming potential (GWP).


TABLE 3.1 GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIALS

Global Warming Potential(Time Horizon)Greenhouse Gas Chemical Formula

Lifetime(years)

20 years 100 years 500 years

Carbon Dioxide CO2 Variable 1 1 1

Methane CH4 12±3 56 21 6.5

Nitrous Oxide N20 120 280 310 170

Source: IPCC (1995).

A GWP is defined as the ratio ofradiative forcings, accumulated duringa certain period of time, caused byemissions of unit mass of the particulargreenhouse gas and of the referencegreenhouse gas (in this case CO2).Radiative forcing is the forcing ofgreenhouse gases concentrationincrease affecting the changes in the“Earth–atmosphere” energy balance.Hence, by definition, the GWP ofcarbon dioxide equals to 1. The GWP ofa greenhouse gas takes into accountinstantaneous radiative forcing due toan incremental concentration increaseand also the gas lifetime in theatmosphere. Although any time periodcan be chosen for comparison, inKazakhstan’s inventory 100-yearGWPs, recommended by the IPCC,were used. The GWPs for somegreenhouse gases according to theIPCC data are given in Table 3.1.

3.2 Total Greenhouse GasEmissions

This section provides an overview ofthe greenhouse gas inventory inKazakhstan for 1990 and 1994. Below,

in sections 3.4 to 3.6, data for each gasare presented in more detail.

Figure 3.1 shows total emissions of themost important greenhouse gases byfive main categories, recommended bythe IPCC: Energy Activities (includesall types of activity related toextraction, transportation, processingand combustion of organic fuels);Industrial Processes; Agriculture; LandUse Change And Forestry and WasteManagement. Table 3.2 presentsemissions of direct greenhouse gasesbroken down in a number of mainsubcategories in CO2-equivalent.Outcomes of the inventory for allgreenhouse gases in absolute units aregiven in Table 3.3. According to theresults of the inventory, total netgreenhouse gas emissions in 1990 wereabout 266 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent, and in 1994 — about213 million tonnes. Thus, total GHGemissions in Kazakhstan during thisperiod declined by more then 20% ofthe baseline level. Specific GHGemissions in Kazakhstan amounted toover 15.9 tonnes per capita, from thisamount about 13.6 tonnes are attributedto CO2.


FIGURE 3.1 TOTAL EMISSIONS OF DIRECT GREENHOUSE GASES IN 1990 AND 1994

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

250

270

290

Ene

rgy

Indu

stria

l Pro

cess

es

Agr

icul

ture

Fore

stry

Was

te

Tota

l

Net

Tot

al

mill

ion

tonn

es o

f CO 2

-equ

ival

ent

1990

1994

Analysis of the results, presented inTables 3.2 and 3.3 and in Figure 3.1,shows that the most important sourceof GHG emissions in Kazakhstan isenergy activities, which contributed246 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent in1990 and 196 million tonnes in 1994, or92.4% and 92.2%, respectively. In the“Energy Activities” category, about84% attributed to emissions from fuelcombustion and 7% — to fugitiveemissions from the production,transmission, and processing of fuels.Emissions from categories “IndustrialProcesses” (emissions not associatedwith fuel combustion in industry),“Agriculture” and “Waste” amountedto 1.6%, 6.5%, and 0.9% in 1990 and0.5%, 7.9%, and 2.2% in 1994,

correspondingly. Absorption of carbondioxide by forests amounted to about2.0% in 1990 and 3.7% in 1994 of thetotal CO2 emissions. The main sourcesof the second most importantgreenhouse gas – methane, are theunderground coalmines (40.4% and27.9% of the total methane emissions in1990 and 1994, respectively) andagriculture (44.7% in 1990 and 43.5%in 1994).

Figure 3.2 illustrates the relativecontributions of the three greenhousegases to total emissions for 1990 and1994. Carbon dioxide contributes over80% to total greenhouse gas emissions,the share of methane is about 15-18%,and nitrous oxide's share is lessthan 1%.


TABLE 3.2 DIRECT GHG EMISSIONS IN 1990 AND 1994 (1,000 TONNES OF CO2-EQUIVALENT)

CO2 CH4 N2O TotalGreenhouse Gas Source andSink Categories 1990 1994 1990 1994 1990 1994 1990 1994

1 Energy activities 226,040 178,252 19,236 17,735 651 40 245,927 196,000

Fuel combustion 226,040 178,252 252 39 651 40 226,943 178,304

Fugitive emissions NA NA 18,984 17,695 NA NA 18,984 17,695

2 Industrial processes 4,349 1,014 4,349 1,014

Carbide production 211 211

Cement production 4,138 1,014 4,138 1,014

3 Solvents NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

4 Agriculture 17,493 17,387 17,493 17,387

Enteric fermentation NA NA 14,553 14,850 NA NA 14,553 14,850

Animal wastes NA NA 1,722 1,096 NA NA 1,722 1,096

Rice cultivation NA NA 1,218 1,441 NA NA 1,218 1,441

5 Land use change & forestry -4,011 -6,627 21 3 -3,987 -6,627

Changes in forest and otherwoody biomass stocks

-4,627 -6,627 -4,627 -6,627

Forest and grasslandconversion

616 21 3 640

6 Waste 2,352 4,811 2,352 4,811

Solid waste NA NA 2,289 3,354 NA NA 2,289 3,354

Wastewater NA NA 63 728 63 728

Net national emissions 226,378 172,638 39,102 39,933 654 40 266,134 212,611

Notes:NA = not applicable;CO2 emissions from biomass burning are not included in national totals, according to the IPCC metho dology;Empty cells mean not estimated;Individual values may not add up to totals due to rounding.

FIGURE 3.2 PERCENTAGE SHARE OF MAJOR GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS IN 1990 AND 1994

1990

Carbon dioxide85.06%

Methane14.69%

Nitrous oxide0.25%

1994

Carbon dioxide81.77%

Methane18.21%

Nitrous oxide0.02%

TABLE 3.3 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS IN 1990 AND 1994 (1,000 TONNES)

CO2 CH4 N2O NOX CO NMVOCGreenhouse Gas Source andSink Categories 1990 1994 1990 1994 1990 1994 1990 1994 1990 1994 1990 1994

1 Energy activities 226,040 178,252 916.0 844.5 2.1 0.13 1,198 165.49 2,966 57.19 260.3Fuel combustion 226,040 178,252 12.0 1.9 2.1 0.13 1,198 165.49 2,966 57.19 260.3

Energy andtransformationindustries

94,211 74,043 1.0 253 165.03 39 40.77

Industry 48,187 52,262 0.4 43 623Transport 32,471 15,097 6.0 0.6 474 2,016 260.3Small combustion 31,171 30,704 0.2 83 167Other 6,145Biomass 3,182 404 6.0 1.9 0.1 0.13 345 0.47 121 16.42

Fugitive emissions NA NA 904.0 842.6 NA NA NA NA NA NACoal mining NA NA 752.0 529.9 NA NA NA NA NA NAOil and natural gas NA NA 152.0 312.7 NA NA NA NA NA NA

2 Industrial processes 4,349 1,014 134 NA NACarbide production 211 NA NACement production 4,138 1,014 NA NA

3 Solvents NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA4 Agriculture 833.0 828.0 NA NA NA NA NA NA

Enteric fermentation NA NA 693.0 707.1 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NAAnimal wastes NA NA 82.0 52.2 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NARice cultivation NA NA 58.0 68.6 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

5 Land use change & forestry -4,011 -6,627 1.0 0.01 0.1 8 NA NAChanges in forest and otherwoody biomass stocks

-4,627 -6,627 NA NA

Forest and grasslandconversion

616 1.0 0.01 0.1 8 NA NA

6 Waste 112.0 229.1Solid waste NA NA 109.0 159.7 NA NA NA NA NA NAWastewater NA NA 3.0 34.7 NA NA NA NA

Industrial NA NA 29.3 NA NA NA NADomestic andcommercial

NA NA 3.0 5.4 NA NA NA NA

Net national emissions 226,378 172,638 1,862.0

1,901.6 2.11 0.13 1,198.1

165.5 3,108.0 57.2 260.3

otes:NA = not applicable;CO2 emissions from biomass burning are not included in national totals, according to the IPCC methodology;Empty cells mean not estimated;Individual values may not add up to totals due to rounding.


3.3 Carbon Dioxide Emissions

The main source of carbon dioxideemissions is the energy activities,namely combustion of fossil fuels.Figure 3.3 shows the relative sectorcontributions to carbon dioxideemissions in 1990.

3.3.1 Energy Activities

Fuel combustion activities inKazakhstan in 1990 produced226 million tonnes of carbon dioxide(Table 3.2). Of this, from the use of coal,diesel fuel, fuel oil and natural gas was

emitted 65, 10, 10 and 8 per cent,respectively. The other carbon dioxideemissions were caused by the use ofother fuels, first of all by gasoline. In1994 carbon dioxide emissions in thiscategory amounted to 178 milliontonnes. The relative contributions ofvarious sectors to CO2 emissions in1990 are presented in Figure 3.4.

According to the data of theInternational Energy Agency (IEA),Kazakhstan in 1993 was the largestemitter of energy related CO2 per GDPin the world and per capita Kazakhstanwas 13th largest emitter.

FIGURE 3.3 PERCENTAGE SHARE OF CO2 EMISSIONS FROM MAIN SECTORS – 1990

Energy activities97.9%

Industrial processes1.9%

Land use change0.3%

FIGURE 3.4 CO2 EMISSIONS FROM FUEL COMBUSTION – 1990

Transport15.8% Residential

15.1%

Electrcity and heat production

45.2%

Petroleum refining0.5%

Industry23.4%


Energy-Producing and Oil and GasSector

Energy production sector is the mainsource of CO2 emissions in thiscategory. Emissions form this sectoramount almost to a half of totalemissions from fuel combustion. Inabsolute terms carbon dioxideemissions form enterprises of theMinistry of Energy equaled to93 million tonnes in 1990 and to74 million tonnes in 1994. The mainfeature of Kazakhstan’s energy sector isa predominance of coal in the fuelbalance and coal has the highest carbonemission factor per a unit of energycontent in a fuel. The share of emissionsfrom the coal combustion in 1990 was80.9%, from the burning of fuel oil andgas – 9.7% and 9.4%, correspondingly.Of eleven enterprises of the oil and gassector in 1990, practically, only three ofthem – oil refineries, emitted carbondioxide. In absolute termsCO2 emissions from these refineries in1990 amounted to 1 million tonnes. For1994 this figure was ratherunderestimated due to the shortage ofdata, therefore, these estimates aresubjects to revision.

Industrial Processes, Transport andResidential Sector

In 1990 the share of carbon dioxideemissions from industrial sources wasabout 23%, while transport andresidential sector shares wereapproximately equal, each of themamounting to 15% of the totalCO2 emissions. Data for these categoriesare subjects to refinement.

In Kazakhstan's inventory separateestimations of carbon dioxide emissionsfrom road, railroad, water and airtransport, as well as from constructionand agricultural machinery were made.In 1990, CO2 emissions from transportamounted to 32 million tonnes. Fuelstructure of these emissions is asfollows: 59.3% was caused by thecombustion of diesel fuel, 35.8% – ofgasoline, 4.6% – of kerosene, and 0.3% –of aviation fuel. In 1994, CO2 emissionsfrom transport amounted to 15 milliontonnes. The reason for a such differencebetween the 1990 and 1994 estimationsis that the 1990 initial statistical data onthe consumption of almost all dieselfuel and gasoline were attributed to thetransport sector which resulted inoverestimation of emissions from thissource.

In Kazakhstan's residential sector, tendifferent fuel types were used in 1990.The fossil fuel use by the residentialsector in 1990 resulted in 31 milliontonnes of carbon dioxide emissions.Of this, 86.5% was generated by thecombustion of coal, 6.9% – of gas, 4.9%– of residual fuel oil and 1.7% – of otherfuels. In 1994, CO2 emissions from theresidential sector amounted to30 million tonnes.

3.3.2 Non-Energy Activities

According to the IPCC classification,non-energy processes include all typesof activity not associated with the fuelconsumption. The main categories thatproduce CO2 emissions are “IndustrialProcesses” and “Forestry and Land UseChange”. Contribution of these sources


to the total CO2 emissions equals toabout 2%.

For the first category, carbon dioxideemissions from cement and carbideproduction were assessed. In the firstcase, the IPCC default factor was usedfor estimation. In the second category,estimation was performed on the basisof the chemical process of carbideproduction. For CO2 emissionsestimation from the latter source anoriginal methodology was applied.CO2 emissions from industrialprocesses in 1990 totaled to 4.3 milliontonnes, from which 4.1 million tonnesor 95% were caused by cementmanufacture and 0.2 million tonnes(5%) – by carbide production. For 1994,emissions from carbide productionwere not estimated.

In the “Forestry and Land Use Change”category forest fires were considered asa source of CO2 emissions, althoughthis source is not covered by the IPCCmethodology.

According to the estimations, carbondioxide emissions caused by the forestfires were 616.2 thousand tonnes, 32.9%of which were caused by burning itselfand 67.1% – by the residual biomassdecomposition at firesides. Suchestimation for 1994 was not performed.

3.4 Methane Emissions

Methane emissions amounted to1.86 and 1.90 million tonnes in 1990 and1994, respectively. It should be notedthat the calculated emissions for1990 were slightly underestimatedbecause emissions from the oil and gassector were not taken into account.Figure 3.5 illustrates the relative sectorcontributions to methane emissions forthe year 1990. The main sources ofmethane emissions in Kazakhstan areextraction and processing of coal, oil,and gas – 49% and 44%, agriculture –45% and 44%, and waste – 6% and 12%in 1990 and 1994, respectively.

FIGURE 3.5 CONTRIBUTION OF DIFFERENT CATEGORIES TO TOTAL METHANE EMISSIONS – 1990

Fugitive49%

Agriculture45%

Waste6%


3.4.1 Fugitive Emissions

According to the estimates, methaneemissions from extraction,transportation, processing andutilization of oil and gas in1990 amounted to 152 thousand tonnes,of which 95% emitted from gassystems, and 5% are oil-relatedemissions. This figure in1994 amounted to 313 thousand tonnes.Such a difference can be explained bythe fact, that methane emissions fromoil loaded into tankers and processed atoil refineries, as well as emissionsgenerated during transportation anddistribution of natural gas, wereestimated for the 1994, but were notestimated for 1990. Methane emissionsfrom coal mining were obtained bysumming emissions from undergroundand surface mines. The total amount ofmethane emitted to the atmosphere inKazakhstan in 1990 as a result of coalmining equaled to 751.7 thousandtonnes, of this 84% are fromunderground mining and 16% – fromsurface mining. Total fugitive emissionsin Kazakhstan amounted to 904 and843 thousand tonnes in 1990 and 1994,correspondingly. In 1990, 83% wasemitted by the coal industry and 17% –by the oil and gas sector; in 1994, thisratio changed to 63% and 37%,respectively.

3.4.2 Agriculture

Cumulative methane emissions fromagriculture totaled to 834 thousandtonnes in 1990 and to 828 thousandtonnes in 1994. Of this amount, 93%(92% in 1994) was from livestock and

7% (8% in 1994) was from rice fields.Emissions from livestock amounted to775 thousand tonnes in 1990 and to759 thousand tonnes in 1994. Emissionswere mainly from enteric fermentation– 89% in 1990 (93% in 1994) with animalwaste contributing 11% in 1990 (7% in1994). 37.1% of livestock methaneemissions in 1990 were produced bymeet cattle, 31.3% – by dairy cattle,24.4% – by sheep breeding, 4.2% – byhorse breeding, and 3.0% wascontributed by pig breeding, poultryfarms and camel breeding. Anaerobic(without air) decomposition of organicsubstance at periodically flooded ricefields with the total area of120 thousand hectares caused58.2 thousand tonnes of methaneemissions in 1990 and 68.6 thousandtonnes in 1994.

3.4.3 Waste Management

According to the IPCC defaultfactors/data, per 10 million ofKazakhstan's urban population in1990 there were 1,847 thousand tonnesof waste, 80% of which was disposedon land. Taking into account carboncontent fraction in wastes and actualdecomposition fraction it was assessedthat in 1990 methane emissions fromsolid waste accounted to 109 thousandtonnes. Only 10% of wastewater wereanaerobically decomposed in thewastewater treatment facilities, whichcaused 3 thousand tonnes of methaneemissions. Total methane emissions inKazakhstan from waste management in1990 (not including industrial wastes)accounted for 112 thousand tonnes,97% of which from solid waste disposal


and 3% from wastewater treatment.Emissions from industrial wastewaterswere not included into the1990 inventory, by were estimated inthe inventory for 1994. Methaneemissions from the “WasteManagement” category in1994 amounted to 229 million tonnes,85% of which fall to solid wastes, and15% to liquid wastes.

3.5 Other Emissions

In Kazakhstan’s 1990 inventorycumulative emissions of nitrous oxide,carbon monoxide, oxides of nitrogenand NMVOC were estimated, whichamounted to 2; 3,108; 1,198 and260 thousand tonnes, correspondingly.For 1994, N2O, CO and NOX emissionswere estimated only for a few sources.Emissions of non-methane volatileorganic compounds for 1994 were notestimated. The main source of indirectgreenhouse gases is transport(Table 3.3).

3.6 Carbon Dioxide Sinks

Carbon dioxide uptake by forests in1990 amounted to 4.6 million tonnesthat makes up approximately 2% oftotal GHG emissions in Kazakhstan.The amount of wood harvest reducedconsiderably in 1994 in comparisonwith 1990. With the unchanged forestarea, this resulted in increase ofCO2 uptake by the biomass stocks in1994 to 6.6 million tonnes, whichrepresents 3.7% of total emissionsin 1994.

3.7 Uncertainty Assessment

According to the results of the uncer-tainty assessment of the Kazakhstan’sinventory, errors of the emissionestimations, associated with errors ininitial statistical data for the energysector is estimated to be equal to 5-20%,except for the residential sector, whereerrors may exceed 20%. For the energyproduction sector, which is responsiblefor almost a half of all GHG emissions,error does not exceed 5%.

Fugitive emissions were estimated withthe level of uncertainty of 60%.Methane emissions from entericfermentation in the livestock breedingwere estimated with the 25% error. Forthe rest categories, the level ofuncertainty varies from 20 to 80%.

3.8 Carbon Dioxide EmissionProjection

At the moment, it is difficult to providea reliable long-term projection of GHGemissions. Baseline scenario ofCO2 emissions, that is the emissionsdynamics, which assumes nomitigation measures to be implemen-ted, for Kazakhstan, as a transitioningcountry, will not be consistent withlong-term trends. This projection willbe determined, first of all, by long-termprojections of the Kazakhstan’seconomy development and of theenergy use efficiency, construction ofthese projections, in its turn, is a rathercomplicated task. A projection ofCO2 emissions from the energy-


TABLE 3.4 CO2 EMISSIONS FROM ENERGY PRODUCTION SECTOR (MILLION TONNES)

Actual emissions Projected emissions

1990 1994 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

94 74 67 83 93 118 129

producing sector until 2020 wasconstructed with the use of the energyplanning model ENPEP, developed byArgonne National Laboratory (USA). Ina general view, the projection of CO2emissions is based on the long-termprojection of socio-economicaldevelopment. It is a function macro-economic indicators such as GDP,energy use efficiency in industry(specific energy consumption per GDP),demand on different types of energy-carriers and factors of CO2 emissionscaused by the use of these energy-carriers. In other words, someassumptions in projecting of theeconomy development, structure and

volumes of energy use in the nationaleconomy are inevitable. The CO2emissions projection was madeaccording to the maximum energydemand projection. In accordance withthe preliminary estimations, CO2emissions in 1996–1998 reduced onabout 40% of the 1990 level. The CO2emission projection (Table 3.4 andBox 2 – baseline scenario) shows thatemissions will reach the level of 1990 bythe year 2011, and by 2020 will exceedbase level on 37%. Total GHG emissionprojections will be constructed withtaking into account new macro-economic projections.


CHAPTER 4. Measures on Greenhouse GasEmissions Reduction and Adaptationto Climate Change

Greenhouse gas mitigation andadaptation measures were evaluatedand developed in accordance withKazakhstan’s long-term nationalpriorities which are to improve itspeople’s welfare, based on sustainabledevelopment, improvement ofinfrastructure, increase in economicgrowth and preservation of theenvironment.

Implementation of actions like these isa comprehensive mission of a nationalscope and requires coordinated actionsof ministries and government agencies,

non-government organizations and thepublic. In Kazakhstan, as in anytransition country, climate change isonly a priority to the extent that it isrelated to the general nationalconception of the sustainabledevelopment and preservation of theenvironment.

Tables 4.1 and 4.2 present the sectoralpriorities for mitigation and adaptationmeasures that were recommended to beincluded in the national action plan forthe UNFCCC.

TABLE 4.1 PRIORITY SECTORS AND MEASURES ON CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION

Priority sectors and subsectors Measures

Energy To develop enabling mechanisms to implement the energy-saving policies

To improve efficiency of fuel utilization at power stations

To include renewable sources of energy into the energy balanceEnergy production

To increase the natural gas share in the energy balance

To increase the energy efficiency of energy savings in the industryEnergy consumption

Energy saving in residential sector and district heating improvements

To increase the livestock productivity and to optimize the livestockpopulation

AgricultureTo take less productive land out of crop rotation, to intensify grainproduction

Forestry To increase the area covered by forests

CHAPTER 4. MEASURES ON GHG EMISSIONS REDUCTION AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE 53

TABLE 4.2 PRIORITY SECTORS AND MEASURES ON ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE

Priority sectors Measures

Clarification and drafting of legislation for transition of the agriculturalsector of the Republic to a market economy

Improvement of less productive lands in arid and semi-arid zones andreduction of soil erosion

Development and distribution of long-term forecasts on agricultural pestand disease outbreaks for planning, procurement and pesticides utilizationpurposes

Agriculture

Establishment and maintaining at the modern level regional centers ongenetic varieties for spring and winter wheat

To support development of modern technologies for the sectors ofeconomy, which use water resources

To implement water-saving measures

To mitigate the negative impact of the water resources vulnerability to thesectors of the economy

To implement nature conservation measures

To reduce social losses

Water resources

To increase the decision-making efficiency

4.1 Evaluating and DevelopingMeasures

Selection of the priority GHGmitigation and adaptation measures foreach sector was based both on expertjudgments from the lead agencies andon results of Kazakhstan CountryStudies work. The team also evaluatedexisting programs and plans to identifymeasures that could be integrated intothe national action plan. Thisinformation was discussed at severalexpert meetings. The final decisionabout high-priority GHG mitigationand adaptation measures and optionswas made at the scoping meeting of the

NAP UNFCCC development.Stakeholders from different ministriesand departments took part in thatmeeting.

Several criteria were used to screen andevaluate mitigation and adaptationmeasures. The main criteria used toselect mitigation measures includedopportunities for integration withcurrent sectoral and sustainableprograms, the extent of the GHGmitigation potential, the cost ofemissions abatement, the costeffectiveness of implementation, otherenvironmental impacts, and ease ofimplementation.


Criteria used to evaluate adaptationmeasures included the priority of themeasure for Kazakhstan, the effective-ness of the measure both in current andexpected climate, the existence of otherbenefits stemming from the measure,implementation costs, andadministrative, legislative, market andother barriers.

Kazakhstan’s energy developmentprograms focus on energy savings inthe electric power, district heating, andindustry sectors. All of these sectors aresignificant sources of GHG emissions.Therefore, they were assessed to beincluded into the NAP UNFCCC. Themethods of technology assessmentinclude conducting a review oftechnology performance andimplementation analysis of renewableenergy (hydropower, wind systems,and solar energy) and energy efficiencyin industry and power generation. Anin-depth evaluation, including a cost-benefit analysis, of chosen mitigationmeasures has been completed forselected measures in the energyproduction sector and district heatingbased on the ENPEP model and theNREL methodology for the EconomicEvaluation of Energy Efficiency andRenewable Technologies.

An in-depth evaluation, including acost-benefit analysis, of several selectedadaptation measures has also beenconducted in priority sectors. Themethodology used is a cost-effectiveness analysis that incorporatesseveral tools — including tables anddecision matrices — for screening,evaluating, and selecting adaptationmeasures for sectors vulnerable to

climate change. This methodology wasprovided through the US CountryStudies Program.

4.2 Proposed Greenhouse GasesMitigation Measures

Kazakhstan has a high potential forreducing the amount of the GHGemissions. In the energy sector, whichis the main source of GHG emissions, itis determined by the high energy-output ratio in the industry and thehigh energy-saving potential in allsectors of the economy. Non-energysectors have certain reduction potentialas well.

Guided by the priorities, set forth at theNAP UNFCCC development seminar,basing upon estimation of costs andGHG emissions mitigation potential forspecific scenarios, as well as havinganalyzed barriers for their implemen-tation, certain priority actions wereproposed to be included into the NAPUNFCCC. At the given stage priorityactions were chosen basing on the timeframes provided in the Plan of PriorityActions of the Ministry of Ecology andNatural Resources, adopted by theGovernment.

4.2.1 Energy Sector

The GHG mitigation measures in theenergy sector are directly connectedwith the overall energy sectordevelopment strategy and the NationalProgram on Energy-Saving. Themitigation action plan in the energysector will focus on electric power,district heating, households andindustry. These subsectors were chosen


on the basis of the following criteria:they have high rates of energyconsumption, they have a viable future,they are important to the economicdevelopment of Kazakhstan, or theyhave export potential.

Table 4.3 presents a summary of thespecific mitigation measures and

information about current pilot projectsin energy sector. Costs for somemeasures are preliminary; they arecurrently under determination. Theannual reduction in gases is given inamounts of the specific greenhouse gasin question.

BOX 1. Energy Saving Potential

A significant factor to reduce CO2 emissions will be implementation of comprehensive fuel-saving or energy-saving measures. The energy-saving potential is immerse in Kazakhstan.The absolute value of the energy-saving potential is calculated as the difference between thespecific energy intensity in Kazakhstan and that in developed countries multiplied by thevalue of the gross domestic product (GDP). The specific energy intensity of the GDP inKazakhstan equals to 1.03 tce/1,000 USD; specific energy intensity (average weighted) in theOECD countries equals to 0.39 tce/1,000 USD. If the level of the specific energy intensity inthe developed countries being achieved, the absolute energy-saving potential of the Republicof Kazakhstan will amount to 61.51 million tce, it means prevention of about 170 milliontonnes of CO2 emissions.In Kazakhstan, in co-operation with USAID, the National Energy-Saving Program wasdeveloped and approved by the Resolution of the Government, provisions of the Programbeing taken into account in assessing the perspective demand for electricity.Implementation of actions already outlined in the National Energy-Saving Program of theRepublic of Kazakhstan could allow to reduce the fuel consumption by 25% as the result ofimplementation of the short and medium-term action program and by 40% – as the result ofimplementation of the long-term program.The first stage of realization of the energy-saving potential (1995–2000) should be providedprimarily through streamlining nominal regime operations of enterprises and eliminatingdirect waste in energy utilization. This stage will not require any substantial investments.The desired impact will be achieved by proper organizational and technical arrangements.The following-up periods will require crucial r estructuring.Thus, energy-saving potential due to elimination of direct waste of electricity and thermalenergy is estimated to amount to 0.7 million tonnes of coal equivalent, the emissionsabatement potential amounting to 2.1 million CO2, in the electricity and energy generation —over 10 million tonnes of CO2 (3.7 million tonnes of coal equivalent) with 2.7 million tonnesof CO2 emissions reduction due to lowering electricity consumption for the electricitytransportation along the grid-lines, due to rehabilitation of the existing equipment — about1 million tonnes CO2. Cumulative energy-saving potential requiring minimumimplementation costs is estimated as 15.8 million tonnes CO2.


TABLE 4.3 SUMMARY OF PRIORITY MEASURES IN ENERGY SECTOR

AnnualCO2 Reduction

Potential,million tonnes

AnnualCH4 Reduction

Potential,million tonnes

Measures

2005 2020 2005 2020

CumulativeCO2 Reduction

over 2000–2020,million tonnes

Total FundingRequired,

million USD

Development ofmechanisms to implementthe Law on Energy-Saving

NA NA NA NA NA 0.5

Energy efficiency increasingat fossil-fuel power plants,energy saving and districtheating improvement:

Modernization andrehabilitation of powerplants

1.76 2.33 0.17 0.19 40 1,061

Energy saving anddistrict heating systemimprovement:

pilot phase TBD 0.08 TBD TBD 0.16 0.814 by 1999a

set of measures TBD 0.70 TBD TBD TBD TBD

Small hydro 0.14 3.74 0.02 0.28 20 578

Wind 0.63 3.13 0.07 0.22 290.482 by 1999a

937

Solar:

Thermal systems 0.6 0.6 — — — 931

Photovoltaic systems 0.20 1.74 0.02 0.37 18

Utilization of associated gas TBD 2.7 TBD TBD TBD TBD

Notes:a pilot phase implementation with GEF support;TBD = to be determined;NA = not applicable.


BOX 2. GHG Mitigation Analysis

In the mitigation analysis, various energy-generating technologies were evaluated using the ENPEPmodel of the Argonne National Laboratory (USA). Taking into account availability of the naturalresources in Kazakhstan, existing research and technical works, and expert studies of the Ministry ofEnergy, various energy-generating technologies were evaluated with regard to their possiblecontribution to the reduction of CO2 emissions and costs of emission abatement. Among these optionswere extension and rehabilitation of cogeneration power plants, use of nuclear, wind, solar energy,and extended use of hydro energy. Almost all of considered technologies (except nuclear energy) havebeen included either in the Energy Saving Program or in programs on energy development measures.All technologies were evaluated against the baseline scenario, which is a scenario without anymitigation measures taken into account.FIGURE. CO2 EMISSIONS FOR THE BASELINE AND MITIGATION SCENARIOS

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

mill

ion

tonn

es

Baseline Power Plant RehabilitationSmall Hydro NuclearWind SolarIntegrated

As it could be seen at the picture, according to the baseline scenario CO2 emissions reduction willreach about 40% of the 1990 level by 1998. The baseline CO2 emissions projection shows that theemissions will reach the 1990 level in 2011 and exceed this level on 37% in 2020. Development of thenuclear-based energy sector may result in the most significant reduction in the CO2 emissions.According to the "Nuclear power station" scenario, in comparison with the baseline scenario, theannual emissions abatement will amount to 1.9%, 3.8%, and 7.1% in the years 2010, 2015, and2020 correspondingly. Power plants rehabilitation may reduce the CO2 emissions to 1,609 Gg in2000 and to about 2,330 Gg in 2020, which equals to 2% of the baseline level. The "Small Hydro" and"Wind" scenarios' annual CO2 emissions reduction potential equals to 0.2 and 2.6% in 2000 and2020 correspondingly. The total annual potential for CO2 emissions reduction due to implementationof all the options ("Integrated scenario") considered increases from 3% in 2000 to 11% in 2020.Total cumulative CO2 emissions reduction potential for the period 2000–2020 is about 158 milliontonnes. Costs of implementation of all the measures would amount to about 5 billion USD.Rehabilitation of power plants and introduction of small hydro power plants are the most costeffective measures. Nuclear energy development is the most expensive one, but it has high GHGemissions mitigation potential.


Below a short description of measuresto reduce the GHG emissions in theenergy sector proposed to be includedinto the NAP UNFCCC is given.

Designing Enabling Mechanisms toImplement the Law on Energy-Saving

One of the major barriers todevelopment of energy-efficient andenergy-saving technologies andrenewable energy in developing andtransition countries is the lack of thelegislative framework or properly fine-tune enabling mechanisms for itsimplementation. In the case ofKazakhstan, the legislative frameworkis formed by the Law of the Republic ofKazakhstan on Energy-Saving adoptedin December 1997. This Lawdeclaratively covers all the aspects ofenergy saving in both energyproduction and energy consumptionsector, including increase of energyefficiency and development ofrenewable energy. The Low defines theframework for governing the energy-saving policies at the national level. Asof today, however, the enablingmechanisms for implementation of theLaw have not yet been fully developed,which is one of the priority objectives ofthe Energy-Saving Programimplementation and the priority line inthe GHG emissions reduction.

Enabling mechanisms forimplementation of the Law should bedeveloped in several stages. It shouldcover establishment of an authorizedand implementing agency,development of the regulatoryframework, designing details for theprogram implementation at the level of

certain regions, the programimplementation and monitoring, aswell as replication of the learnedexperience in other regions ofKazakhstan. To develop the programdesign and implementation Kazakhstanwill require technical support frominternational and donor institutions.Total cost required is estimated about500,000 USD.

Energy Efficiency Increasing at Fossil-Fuel Power Plants, Energy Saving andDistrict Heating Improvement

The most effective modern trends inenergy efficiency increasing at fossil fuelpower plants are as follows:

• further development ofcogeneration of electricity and heaton the combined cycle (to replacethe divided condensed cycle ofelectricity and heat generation). Itcould be achieved by construction ofnew power plants with modernefficient equipment; replacement ofcondensation turbines by thermalones at operating power plants; andtransference of condensationturbines for the lowering vacuumregime (that is, theirmodernization);

• improvement of thermal schemes ofpower plants and, in particular,establishment of steam and gaspower plants through bothconstruction of new power plantsand construction of gas turbineblock “superstructures” at theexisting steam-turbine power plants.


According to the GHG mitigationassessment, these measures will allowto reduce annual CO2 emissions by1.6 million tonnes by the year 2005 andby approximately 2.3 million tonnes bythe year 2020. Cumulative CO2emission reduction for the wholeperiod will amount to 40 milliontonnes. This scenario is characterizedby relatively low cost of CO2 emissionsreduction. To implement the wholeprogram of improving the efficiency offuel utilization at the power plants,presented in the Strategy for the energysector development, will require400 million USD by the year 2005,amounting to 1 billion USD by the year2020. This option was included as the

main priority for medium and short-term measures in the electricitygeneration sector.

Studies showed that some of the bestopportunities for energy-efficiencysavings and district heating improvementand consequent CO2 reductions comefrom improvements in heating boilers,district-heat distribution pipelines,heating system controls in buildings,and building insulation. The existingopportunities to save 25-35% aretechnically feasible and economicallycost-effective.

According to studies on selected typicalparticular boiler house in Almaty(Box 3), implementation of such

BOX 3. The Pilot Project in Heat and Hot Water Supply

The GEF project "Capacity Building to Reduce Key Barriers to Energy Efficiency in Heat and HotWater Supply" started in Kazakhstan in July 1998. The objective of this project is to remove barrierstowards greater energy efficiency in hot water and heat supply in Kazakhstan, thereby loweringoverall fossil fuel consumption and reducing the need for new fossil fuel based district heating plantsand the associated greenhouse gas emissions. The project objectives shall be achieved by means of: (a)development of the consumption payment-based measurement system, which will be attractive forconsumers; (b) study and demonstration of technical, economic, institutional and other possibilities ofdeveloping the energy system in heat and water supply; (c) capacity building in economic andfinancial projects analysis needed for further financing of the energy efficiency raising projects. Theproject development budget is 814,000 USD, UNDP/GEF share in the project funding amounts to602,000 USD, the government of RK has agreed to contribute to the project 212,000 USD in kind.Expected duration of this project is 24 months.The project, which have been completed with support of the USAID, was aimed to develop projectproposal for improving energy efficiency at the particular Northeast Boiler House in Almaty,Kazakhstan. The project is being proposed for consideration as a GHG mitigation measure. As a resultof the project, a list of possible energy efficiency and energy saving options for the boiler house wasprepared and the options were prioritized in accordance with established screening procedure. Theproject consists of (1) installation of a gas turbine cogeneration system, (2) installation of automationand monitoring equipment, (3) installation of heat recording equipment, and (4) energy efficiencyupgrades of the steam and hot water heating distribution system. The technology retrofits have a highpotential for replication throughout Kazakhstan. It was estimated that the total cumulativeCO2 emissions reduction for the period of 2010–2020 due to similar measures introduction is about50% of the baseline case or about 1 million tonnes.


measures in supply side as installationof a gas turbine cogeneration system,and automation and monitoringequipment, installation of heatrecording equipment, and energyefficiency upgrades of the steam andhot water heating distribution systemcould reduce CO2 emission reductionsby about 40% annually. The technologyretrofits replication throughoutKazakhstan could lead to about1 billion tonnes by the year 2020.

To estimate the total amount ofCO2 emissions reduction potential andthe funds required for whole setmeasures both in supply and demandsides the pilot GEF project has beenrecently initiated (see Box 3).

Increasing of the Use of RenewableEnergy

Small Hydro Power Plants

The energy sector developmentstrategy up to the year 2030 outlinesriver basins and regions mostpromising for constructing small hydropower plants. Even at the presentmoment it is feasible to construct about23 small hydro power plants with the600 MW total capacity and annualproduction of 1.3–1.5 TWh. Besides,about 300 channels for small hydropower plants were identified for thepossibility of establishing facilities withthe total capacity of 1,600 MW andannual production of 5 TWh.

With the implementation of thismeasure, a GHG emission annualreduction potential is estimated at

0.2 and 3.7 million tonnes by the years2000 and 2020 correspondingly. Smallhydro power plants is the only optionable to result in reducing the electricityprices and saving funds up to0.4 billion USD during the period from2005 through 2020, or 24 million USDevery year in comparison with thebaseline scenario. Total sum of all thenecessary funds required to install allthe small hydro power plants projectedby the energy sector developmentstrategy will amount to about17 million USD in 2005 and to578 million USD in 2020. Developmentof hydro energy has positive socialimpact. Thus, for instance, it will allowincreasing the electricity stock in theSouthern and SouthEastern parts ofKazakhstan experiencing great deficitof electricity.

The Government’s Plan of PriorityActions — as one of the priority tasks ofincluding small rivers hydro-energyresources into the Kazakhstan energybalance — identifies creation ofinfrastructure and construction of fivedemonstration small power plants infour oblasts of Kazakhstan: South-Kazakhstan, Almaty, East-Kazakhstan,and Zhambyl. Implementation of thesemeasures is estimated to cost10 million USD.

Wind Energy

According to the research worksperformed, nine regions were identifiedin Kazakhstan as the most suitable fordevelopment of the wind energy –these are the regions characterized withthe wind speed exceeding 8 m/s. As for


the wind resources of the DzhungarGate, the wind speed there sometimesexceeds 60 m/s. As one of the priorities,additional 7 wind power plants can beproposed with the 530 MW cumulativecapacity and annual production of 1.8–2.0 TWh. In addition to opportunities ofinstallation of large wind facilities thereis a considerable potential small windpower facilities market with thecapacity range from 3 to 50 kW, first ofall, in the zones of decentralized watersupply, in the remote areascharacterized with the high costs ofdelivery of fuel for electricity andheating supply.

GHG emissions reduction potential ofthis measure is estimated to be from0.7 to 3.1 million tonnes. Requiredfunds total to 223 million USD and1 billion USD by the years 2000 and2020 correspondingly. Developingwind energy is one of the mostsupported and sustainable options forthe long-term energy sectordevelopment program in Kazakhstan.Its development, though, requiresstrong governmental support.According to the energy sectordevelopment strategy, economies ofscale are envisaged to reduce the cost ofproducing this type of energy and tomove it closer to the traditional sources.

Solar Energy

According to the estimates,implementation of the measures aimedto develop photovoltaic technology at theinitial stage may annually reduce theamount of the GHG emissions by 0.9%of the baseline scenario. Installation ofsolar plants, besides, could reduce

imports of electricity in the Southernregions. At the same time, it is a ratherexpensive option. The sphere ofutilization of these plants, therefore,will be limited to remote and difficultto access areas and to consumersrequiring small capacities.

Solar water heaters with the capacity of1 kW in average per day may heat80 liters of water to 40°. On the basis ofthese figures, the ultimate CO2 emissionreduction can be estimated as331.7 tonnes/year. It is very promisingand feasible option. The GovernmentPlan of Priority Actions provides forimplementation of actions aimed todevelop solar energy, envisagesidentification of priority regions fordevelopment of solar energy anddesigning pilot projects.

Increasing the Natural Gas Share inthe Energy Balance

At present, the amount of associatedgas burnt in flares at oil fields isestimated to be approximately740 million m3. Experts estimate themitigation potential of associated gasutilization for energy purposes to be2.7 million tonnes of CO2 per year.Among the other priorities, the Plan forPriority Actions of the Ministry ofEcology declares projects for utilizationof associated gas at the “Prorva” and“Kumkol” deposits through designingand constructing gas-turbine unitsusing associated gas. Implementation ofthese plans will require attracting fundsfrom both foreign owners ofcorresponding deposits and budgets oflocal and central governments.


BOX 4. Dzhungar Gate wind power plant project

The objective of the full-scale GEF project "Removing Barriers for Wind Power Production inKazakhstan", which has been implementing since June 1997, is to remove barriers tocommercial scale, grid-connected wind power production in Kazakhstan thereby reducingthe need for new fossil fuel based power plants and the associated greenhouse gas emissions.The project is expected to achieve this goal by: (i) strengthening institutional capacity forresearch, planning and technology transfer related to wind power production; (ii) reducingthe uncertainties on costs and various technical issues related to wind power production;and (iii) demonstrating the feasibility of wind power production in Kazakhstan: and drawattention of the potential future on the results of these studies in order to get the necessarypolitical and financial support to move towards larger commercial scale applications.Expected CO2 reduction in the result of the project implementation is about 150 Gg per year.

Energy Consumption Sector

All the reviewed above actions, manyof which relating to the energygeneration sector, have certain energyconsumption actions closely connectedwith them. The major consumers ofenergy in Kazakhstan are the industrialcomplex, municipal and utility servicesand agriculture. A significant factor toreduce the energy consumption in theindustrial and utilities sectors — andthus to reduce the CO2 emissions — isto implement the complex of fuel- andenergy-saving measures (see Box 2).

The most energy-intensive industries inKazakhstan are mineral fertilizerproduction and ferrous metallurgy;energy efficiency increasing measuresin these sectors, therefore, could be seenas the most important actions for theenergy consumption sector. In this area,the deep-in analysis of mitigationtechnologies and design of specific pilot

projects for industrial enterprises isrequired. Technical programs in thehousing and utilities sector envisage acomplex of energy saving and districtheating systems improvementmeasures. This complex of measureswill include installation of the heat andgas consumption control and recordingsystems in the housing sector,automation of the heating systemsthrough installation of thermostats,improvement of isolation of buildingsand adoption of new constructionstandards for newly constructeddwelling industrial buildings. The UNDevelopment Program/GlobalEcological Fund project having beenimplemented since July 1998 representsthe first pilot stage of capacity buildingmeasures aimed to increase theefficiency of utilization of energy in thecentral heating and hot and cold watersupply systems in Kazakhstan(see Box 3).


BOX 5. Development of the Technology Transfer Mechanisms

Main objectives for possible technology cooperation framework (TCF) are determining themost effective domestic activities and the mechanism of supporting domestic activities todevelop sustainable businesses and markets to support development, adaptation, and use ofenergy efficiency and renewable energy technologies. This mechanism should also providecommunicating climate change technology cooperation needs to international donors andsecuring funding for renewable energy and energy efficiency projects.First step in the TCF development was determination of priority areas and technologies. Bythe time consensus within the country on the priority for international cooperation to achievereductions in greenhouse gases has been achieved. Priority selection was made at the firstnational scoping meeting on the NAP UNFCCC development (Almaty, April 1997). To drafttechnology cooperation framework, the priorities were specified at the scoping meeting onTCF development (Almaty, October 3, 1997). The outputs of the meeting were presented byteam members during the workshop hold by NREL to further develop the matrixes (Golden,November 17-21, 1998).The priority areas selected for increasing the use of renewable energy and energy efficiencytechnologies are as follows.1. Power Plant Carbon Efficiency Program (Fuel Switching, Combined Cycle Gas,

Improved Heat Rate)2. Energy Saving and District Heating Improvements3. Small Hydro4. Wind Power5. Solar Thermal and PV SystemsPreliminary results on TCF development was presented at the Third UNFCCC Conference ofParties in Kyoto.

4.2.2 Non-Energy Sector

Priorities for reducing the GHGemissions not related to burning fuelwere selected pursuant to the nationalprograms and development strategiesin the area of agriculture, forestry,ecology and environment protection.The information on mitigationmeasures in the non-energy sector ispresented further below.

Increase of the CO2 Uptake from theAtmosphere

The main opportunities for increasingthe CO2 uptake exist at the limited partof the Kazakhstan’s territory between51° and 57° N where about40 million ha of arable lands and10 million ha of forests are located.


Afforestation and Forest Preservation

In 1990 the forest covered 3.7%(9.6 million ha) of total territory ofKazakhstan. Based on the dataavailable, Kazakhstan’s forests seques-tered 4,011 Gg of CO2. According to theProgram “Forests of Kazakhstan”,forest cover should be increased to 4.6%of the country by 2010, and to 5.1% by2020. The areas (about 3.8 million ha)are to be planted mostly with mixedsoftwoods. This would eventuallyincrease sequestration by forests up toabout 6,000 Gg of CO2. The cost ofimplementing this option is estimatedas 35 million USD. Foreign investmentwould be necessary to implement thismeasure.

Projects, approved by the Governmentfor further development —“Organization of the Ecological andResource Monitoring of Forests” and“Afforestation and Reforestation for theSake of Biodiversity and BiocenosisRestoration and Preservation (at thearea of 200 thousand hectares)” couldbe seen as pilot projects in increasingthe CO2 uptake from the atmosphere.

Converting Low Productive Lands intoGrasslands and Rangelands

Soil and climatic conditions of themajority of regions in the northernoblasts of Kazakhstan supportsustainable production of grain. Insome regions, wheat is grown not onlyin the steppe and arid-steppe zones, buteven in the desert-steppe zone on light-chestnut and gray-brown desert soils.The soil and climate of that area allowsa wheat yield of no more than 0.5-0.6 Mg ha-1. Reducing arable areas at

less productive lands withcorresponding intensification of grainproduction will be economicallyprofitable, the proper conditions beingobserved. The available areas should beplanted with perennial grassy andbushy vegetation for 7 or 8 years. Afterthat, carbon will re-accumulate in thesoil. The expected range of annualcarbon re-accumulated in the soil variesfrom 308.7 Gg to 674.9 Gg dependingupon the square of reduced arable area.

Less productive rangelands andgrasslands between 45° and 51° N alsopossess certain CO2 sinking potential.Extensive exploitation of naturalresources without taking into accountthe balance interrelation betweenexploitation and preservation hasresulted in various degree ofdegradation of over 60 million ha ofrangelands, including 48 million habecause of uncontrolled grazing. Thereare two ways to bring these lands intoeconomic utilization: to convertdegraded pastures into plantedgrasslands, or to allocate these lands fornatural restoration. In the first case,certain funds will have to be invested inorder to have high productive plantedgrasslands in three years. Secondoption requires no additional costs, butit is too long, since the agrocenosisrestoration period in deserts and semi-deserts takes over 50 years.

Methane Emissions Reduction

In 1990, agriculture-caused methaneemissions accounted for approximately8% of the total GHG emissions, or forover 45% of the total methaneemissions in Kazakhstan. Measures like


increasing the livestock productivityand optimization of the livestockpopulation, biogas utilization,optimization of areas covered with ricewould allow to reduce up to 20% of themethane emissions. Development andimplementation of a project forimproving the organic waste collection,utilization and storage systems,including wastes of husbandrycomplexes have been included into theGovernment Priority Action Plan for1998–2000.

In 1990, almost 48% of the totalmethane emissions in Kazakhstan wereproduces by the coal-mining industry.At present, methane practically is notused any longer as a raw material forpetroleum industry, some minoramount is burnt in various energy-producing systems, the rest beingreleased to the atmosphere. Utilizationof methane from the Karagandy basincoalmines has been included into theGovernment Priority Action Plan.

4.3 Proposed AdaptationMeasures

Study results showed highvulnerability of the wheat productionand water resources of Kazakhstan topotential climate change impacts,therefore the adaptation measures inthese sectors were assessed. Priorityadaptation measures were selected onthe basis of the results of the study,performed in KazNIIMOSK. Expertsfrom the Kazakh Academy ofAgricultural Science and AgriculturalResearch Center of the Ministry ofScience / Academy of Science of theRepublic of Kazakhstan being involved.

In developing and assessing theadaptation measures, flexibility andcost-effectiveness were taken as themain criteria. Flexibility means thatadaptation measures should also takeinto account the wide range of potentialclimate change in the region, as well asthe fact, that in the coming decadesthere may be no any significant impactof climate change to ecosystems andnatural resources. Cost-effectivenessmeans, that the benefit is greater thancosts. If adaptation measures are ofhigh costs, they should be able togenerate profit even under the existingclimatic conditions, or the costs of thesemeasures should not be significant incase there will be no benefits for severaldecades.

All the proposals to be included intothe NAP UNFCCC will be efficient anduseful even if under a wide range ofpotential climate change including noclimate change. Under the climatechanges, however, the need in thetimely implementation of thesemeasures impetuously grows.

4.3.1 Wheat Production

Four directions were chosen as priorityfor the work. While selecting the mostpriority options in addition to the maincriteria the costs of the options andpossible barriers to theirimplementation were taken intoaccount. Adaptation costs wereestimated basing on expert judgments.Table 4.2 presents the main informationon the chosen priority measures. Costestimates vary from 19.6 million USDfor establishment and maintenance ofthe regional gene centers to 565 million


USD for soil erosion reduction. Costsfor pests control and seed banksestablishment were estimated on thebasis of costs in the USA and convertedto costs in Kazakhstan usingpurchasing power parity adjustmentsand sizing of effort appropriate forKazakhstan. Costs of transition to a freemarket were estimated based on theWorld Bank loan to Kazakhstan. Costsfor soil erosion control were based onactual costs of 100,000 USD for a3,000 ha test site, and assuming thesecosts would be applied to the entirewheat sowing area of 16 to 18 millionhectares.

1. Development and distribution of long-term forecasts on agricultural pest anddisease outbreaks for planning,procurement, and pesticides utilizationpurposes. It is necessary to have timelyand reliable forecasts of this kind evenunder the existing climate in order toundertake the required protectionmeasures or, vice versa, to save fundsin case of a lack of the necessity to treatplants and insects. Under climatechange, increase in frequency of pestsand diseases outbreak is expected, and,therefore, need for this kind of forecastswill grow.

2. Establishment and maintaining at themodern level regional centers on geneticvarieties for spring and winter wheat.Centers like these have already beenestablished at the Southeast and Northof the country. Overall amount ofresearch in the field of the gene fundpreservation in 1997 totaled to15.8 thousand USD, which is clearly notenough to ensure the proper level ofsupport for these works. Special

attention should be focused onensuring financial and administrativesupport to strengthen operations ofthese centers, since under the climatechange the country will especiallyrequire to maintain sufficient fund ofboth existing and new wheat varieties.

3. Clarification and drafting of legislationfor transition of the agricultural sector ofthe Republic to a market economy.Agricultural sector in Kazakhstanclearly requires legislative supportduring the transition to a marketeconomy even at present, under theexisting climatic condition. Under lessfavorable and less stable climate,however, which may present at theterritory of Kazakhstan in the future,maintaining food security andsustainability of agricultural economywill be even more dependent on well-thought laws, regulating relationsbetween farmers, private sector andthe state.

4. Improvement of low productive lands inarid and semi-arid zones and reduction ofsoil erosion. About 22 million ha ofarable lands from the total area of32.7 million ha is located on the slopesup to 2 degree. Cultivation practices ofdividing the land plot into square fields(production fields) 2 km x 2 km – that is400 ha without taking into account therelief of the arable area, lead not only todeflation, but to increase of watererosion. At present, there exist anumber of pilot proposals developedby leading research institutes ofKazakhstan. The proposals concentrateat changing management and land usepatterns to reduce and minimize soilloss from wind and water erosion by


TABLE 4.4 ADAPTATION MEASURES IN WHEAT PRODUCTION

Priority Actions Investments,million USD

Clarification and drafting of legislation for transition of the agricultural sector of theRepublic to a market economy 50.0

Improvement of less productive lands in arid and semi-arid zones and reduction ofsoil erosion 565.0

Development and distribution of long-term forecasts on agricultural pest and diseaseoutbreaks for planning, procurement and pesticides utilization purposes 322.8

Establishment and maintaining at the modern level regional centers on geneticvarieties for spring and winter wheat 19.6

cultivating the land along naturalcontours, planting buffer strips ofherbaceous and woody plants, andmaintaining a constant crop cover. Thisexpertise should be replicated as soonas possible and the country’s researchpotential should be used for landscapeand ecological designing.

Full-scale implementation of all thesemeasures at all cultivated lands willclearly require substantial financialresources, but nevertheless these costswill be recovered in the future even ifthe climate does not change. Underclimate aridization, the need to controlerosion and to raise the soilproductivity through implementationof the complex of the above listedmeasures will only grow andeffectiveness of the proposed measureswill increase. The shift toagrolandscape agriculture may beimplemented through a long period oftime and independently for allterritories.

4.3.2 Water Resources

For Kazakhstan as a whole, theproposed strategy of water resourcessector adaptation comprises

implementation of measures that can bedivided into six groups:

• measures to support developmentof modern technologies for thesectors of economy, which use waterresources;

• water-saving measures;

• measures to mitigate the negativeimpacts of water resourcesvulnerability to sectors of economy;

• nature conservation measures;

• social losses reduction measures;

• measures to expedite the decision-making process.

Full practical implementation ofadaptation measures will requiresignificant investments and long timeperiod. Priority of measures that allowincreasing the water resources availablefor economic activity on the territory ofnorth and east Kazakhstan wasassessed for the basins of Irtysh, Ishimand Tobol rivers. Main indicators of thechosen adaptation measures are givenin Table 4.5.


TABLE 4.5 MEASURES TO INCREASE THE AVAILABLE WATER RESOURCES IN THE BASINS OF IRTYSH,ISHIM, AND TOBOL RIVERS

Measure Priority Additional Amountof Water, million m3

EstimatedInvestments, million

USD

Irtysh River Basin

Runoff regulation 1 3,610 182

Water saving 2 1,699 3,470

Runoff diversion 3 250 1,071

Increasing use of underground water 4 402 3,304

Total 5,961 8,027

Ishim River Basin

Runoff regulation 1 135 90

Water saving 2 132 107

Runoff diversion 3 105 126

Increasing use of underground water 4 43 309

Total 415 632

Tobol River Basin

Water saving 1 301 574

Increasing use of underground water 2 55 635

Total 356 1,209

In setting up the priorities, preferencewas given, first of all, to the measuresable to provide more water, to need lessexpenditures and not to require runoffdiversion from the outside. On the basisof this estimate, adaptation measuresfor the Irtysh and Ishim river basins areranged as follows: runoff regulation, acomplex of water-saving measures,runoff shift, increasing undergroundwater takeoff. For the Tobol river basin,from the two aggregated measuresconsidered — water saving andunderground water takeoff, — thepriority is given to water saving.

4.4 Education, Training, PublicAwareness and NGOs

One of the general obligations ofUNFCCC Parties is development ofeducational and public awarenessprograms on climate change and itseffects, providing public access toinformation on climate change issues,and public participation, includingNGOs, in addressing climate changeand developing adequate responses. InKazakhstan, as well as in manycountries, the general public do nothave a good understanding of theimplications of climate change and the


potential benefits of response measuresin order to take part in the activity toachieve the ultimate objective of theConvention.

Therefore, the aim of educational andpublic awareness programs isinforming the general public about thebenefits of mitigation and adaptationmeasures, which are accompanied byother positive environmental effects.They lead to decline of harmfulemissions into the atmosphere, increasein the agricultural productivity, andimprove fresh water supply forpopulation. Besides, additionally manysocial problems will be solved, newworkplaces will be created, andunfavorable climate change impacts onhuman health will be decreased.

The public in Kazakhstan does not havegood understanding of the implicationsof climate change and the potentialbenefits of response measures.Therefore, the programs of publicawareness, public education, andmedia campaigns in newspapers,magazines, radio, and TV are animportant part of the work under theUNFCCC.

The program of education and publicawareness are divided into four parts:1) educational programs for secondaryschools, high education and training forteacher of secondary schools;2) popularization campaign in massmedia: 3) conducting workshops forgeneral public and ecological NGOs;4) conducting national workshops forthe officials, policy and decisionmakers, who are responsible for plandevelopment in different sectors of

economy that influence on climate ordepend on it.

To obtain the basic professionalknowledge on clymatology is possiblein several universities of Kazakhstan.There is education course related toclimatology in Kazakh State University.This course is planned to be added andextended by information on the latestclimate change study results.

It is planned to put into educationcourses on ecology the climate changequestions in the following universitiesthat introduced programs onenvironment issues. These are KazakhNational Technical University,Pavlodar State University, KazakhWoman’s Pedagogical Institute, AlmatyState University and others. Programon climate change issues is expected todevelop for courses on geography andnatural history lessons.

Climate change study results inKazakhstan are published in thequarterly science and technical journal“Hydrometeorology and Ecology”issued by Kazhydromet. The public canobtain information on climate changestudy activities from the newspaper“Ecocourier” issued by the Ministry ofEnvironment and Natural Resourcesand from other periodical issues.

In April 1997, Kazhydromet hold thefirst national workshop on climatechange national action plan.Representatives from Russia,Kyrgyzstan, the USA, and theNetherlands took part in plenarymeetings. The main results of theworkshop were identifying of priorities


of the NAP and informing of thegeneral public as well as policy anddecision makers on the problems ofclimate change and possible GHGemission reduction measures.

A network of ecological NGOs inKazakhstan is actively expanded.However, only some of them haveclimate change projects. In 1997, theNGO “Ecoproject” prepared twotelecasts on climate change problems.In 1998, another NGO “Ana Umity”started to implement a project in Aralskdistrict called “The light, born by thewind” financed jointly by the SGP/GEFand NGO “Isar”. The task of the projectis to install a wind turbine for thematernity home in the town of Aralsk.The project includes a program onecological education for the public andmanagers of the Aralsk region.

The role of NGOs will grow in thefuture. It is evident that a sufficient partof the work in the area of climatechange on GHG reduction such asreforestation, using of renewablesources of energy, methane utilizationand so on can be implemented by localNGOs. The other sphere of theiractivity can be participation in politicaldialogue with the government ondifferent matters related to prices ortariffs on energy, demonstrationprojects, and clean energy. NGOactivities can be realized in energyefficiency improvement projects,removing barriers for renewable energyusing, and development of legislativebase for introduction of the nationalpolicy in the area of global ecologyissues.

4.5 Follow-Up Activities

Formulating, implementing andregularly updating national programscontaining measures to mitigate climatechange and facilitate adequateadaptation to climate change impactsare the general commitments of allParties in accordance with theArticle 4 (1b) of the UNFCCC. Thesemeasures should be implemented on aconstant base in all sectors of economyincluding energy, transport, industry,agriculture, forestry, water resources,and waste management.

Initially a Governmental Committeewas organized by the Prime Minister’sorder in 1994. It was responsible forcoordination of works on the UNFCCCin Kazakhstan. Main Administrationfor Hydrometeorology (Kazhydromet)was designated as a head organizationfor this Committee. In 1997, theMinistry of Ecology and NaturalResources became a coordinator of theworks. In March 1998, the Committeewas reestablished and a newInteragency Commission wasorganized with expanded functions in1998. Officials from the followingministries and departments werenominated to the Commission: Ministryof Energy, Industry and Trading,Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry ofForeign Affairs, Agency for StrategicPlanning, Ministry of Foreign Affairs,Ministry of Transport andCommunications, and some others. TheCommission is headed by the Ministerof Ecology and Natural Resources.


The basic task of the Commission is acoordination of the following types ofactivity:

• enabling the fulfillment ofKazakhstan’s obligations under theUNFCCC;

• participating in the sessions of thesubsidiary bodies and Conferencesof the Parties of the Convention.

The functions of the Commission are asfollows:

• approving the projects on GHGmitigation in the frame of JointImplementation;

• considering and directing to theGovernment NationalCommunications to the UNFCCC,

• participating in the development ofthe legislative and other normativeacts of Kazakhstan on the issues ofclimate protection;

• introducing appropriate proposalson questions (particularly,approving of the NAP) requiringthe decision of the Government.

The list of the projects in the NAP isdefined by the long-term nationaldevelopment strategy “Kazakhstan –2030”. The time frame of the NAPimplementation is defined by thegeneral commitments of the UNFCCCParties. On the other hand the stepsundergoing by the Government withthe regard to the decision of the signingthe Kyoto Protocol will request todefine and certify of the planning GHGemissions for the period of 2000–2008.

Clean Development Mechanismdefined by the Article 12 of the KyotoProtocol assists Kazakhstan as a Partynot included in Annex 1 in achievingsustainable development and incontributing to the ultimate objective ofthe Convention. It implies bankingprojects in developing countries. At thesame time CDM enables Partiesincluded in Annex 1 to achievecompliance with their quantified GHGemission limitation and reductioncommitments under Article 3.Therefore, at the beginning of the NAPrealization the preparatory stage forprojects will take place. The aim of thisworks is to define a potential of GHGemission reduction in Kazakhstan andto estimate costs of 1 tonneCO2 emission reduction. CDM create anopportunity for developed countries tostart technology transfers as early as2000, instead after 2012, as it wasdefined earlier.

State budget financing of the NAPproject is still difficult because of thetransition period to a marked economy.However, the Government ofKazakhstan can finance 15-20% of theNAP projects expenses and to providefurther fulfilling the obligations takenunder the Convention and KyotoProtocol. These financial resources canbe drawn from Kazakhstan’s fund forenvironmental protection, whichconsists of receipts from payment forpollution, taxes for waste removal,compensation for ecologicalconsequences of activities ofenterprises, fines for damaging theenvironment, etc. Additional financingcan come from other branch funds.


There are, yet, few sources of privateand NGO financing in Kazakhstan.

Investments can also be made withinthe framework of USIJI and AIJ, andfrom international organizations(USAID, ADB, and others). Some largeprojects on energy conservation andenergy saving, wind energy, utilizationof methane and others are within theproject area of GEF and can be fundedon the grant basis.

The implementation of the NAPrequired conducting workshops forspecialists on energy, managers ofdifferent enterprises, and public,professional education in climatechange area, and arranging informationcompanies in mass media.

Besides, for the realization ofKazakhstan’s obligations on UNFCCC,it is planned to continue scientific,socio-economic and others studies, tocarry out observations of climatesystem, to support of created climatedata bases, which are necessary forunderstanding of climate changecauses. These are tasks of researchinstitutes and groups. Climate change

monitoring is a task of the NationalMeteorological Service and must befinanced both by the government andinternational organizations.

Studies and assessments of measureson adequate adaptation to climatechange will also be continued. For themoment, adaptation is recognized to beimportant as mitigation measures ineffort to combat climate change.Adaptation assessments of the CaspianSea coastal zone and mudflow andsnow avalanche study for themountains of the South and Southeastof the country are being developedwithin the Netherlands Climate ChangeStudies Assistance Programme during1998–1999.

The NAP UNFCCC projectsdevelopment and monitoring will beconducted by a special entity – NationalEcological Center for SustainableDevelopment under the Ministry ofEcology and Natural Resources. Thisgroup is responsible for thedevelopment of strategies, action plans,and projects on all internationalconventions ratified by the Republic ofKazakhstan.

REFERENCES 73

References

1. Central Administration forGeodesy and Cartography underthe USSR Council of Ministers,1982: Atlas of Kazakhstan.Cartography, Moscow, USSR, 1,pp. 82. (in Russian).

2. Gitay H., I.R. Noble,O.V. Pilifosova, 1998: Middle Eastand Arid Asia. In: The RegionalImpacts of Climate Change. AnAssessment of Vulnerability. ASpecial Report of IPCC WorkingGroup II [Watson, R.T.,M.C. Zinyowera, H.R. Moss,D.J. Dokken (eds.)]. CambridgeUniversity Press, Cambridge, UK,pp. 231-252.

3. Goskomstat, 1996: KazakhstanRegional Statistical Yearbook for1991-1994. Goskomstat of theRepublic of Kazakhstan, Almaty,Kazakhstan, pp. 549, (in Russian).

4. IDK, UNDP, 1998: Report on theHuman Development. Kazakhstan1997. Institute for Development ofKazakhstan, United NationalDevelopment Programme,Almaty, Kazakhstan, pp. 103, (inRussian).

5. IPCC, 1995: Climate Change 1994:Radiative Forcing of Climate Changeand an Evaluation of the IPCCIS92 Emission Scenarios. Report ofthe IPCC Scientific AssessmentWorking Group I [Houghton, J.T.,L.G. Meira Filho, J. Bruce, H. Lee,B.A. Callander, N. Harris, andK. Maskel (eds.)]. CambridgeUniversity Press, Cambridge, UK,339 pp.

6. Kazakh Academy of AgriculturalSciences, 1994: Conceptual Programof the Republic of KazakhstanAgricultural and Industrial ComplexDevelopment for 1993-1995 till2000. Kazakh Academy ofAgricultural Sciences, Almaty,Kazakhstan, pp. 314, (in Russian).

7. KazNIIMOSK, 1995: GreenhouseGases and the Regional ClimateChange of the Republic ofKazakhstan. Final Report on thescientific research work,No 0196 PR 00737, Almaty,Kazakhstan, pp. 195, (in Russian).

8. KazNIIMOSK, 1995: Inventory ofKazakhstan Greenhouse GasEmissions. Final Report. Resultsfrom the U.S. Country StudiesProgram. Almaty, Kazakhstan,pp. 157.


9. KazNIIMOSK, 1996: Assessment ofthe greenhouse gases emissionreduction options. Final Report onthe scientific research work,No 0196 PR 00737. KazakhResearch Institute forEnvironment Monitoring andClimate, Almaty, Kazakhstan,pp. 96, (in Russian).

10. Mizina, S.V., I.B. Eserkepova,O.V. Pilifosova, S.V. Dolgikh, andE.F. Gossen, 1996: Model-BasedClimate Change Vulnerabilityand Adaptation Assessment forWheat Yields in Kazakhstan. In:Adapting to Climate Change.Assessment and Issues [Smith, J.B.,N. Bhatti, G.V. Menzhulin,R. Benioff, M. Campos, B. Jallow,F. Rijsberman, M.I. Budyko,R.K. Dixon (eds.)]. Springer-Verlag, New York, NY,pp. 148-163.

11. Monocrovich, E., D. Danchuk,O. Pilifosova, O. Semenov,T. Temertekov, Z. Korneeva,E. Gossen, A. Starsev,G. Papafanasopulo, andN. Inozemtseva, 1996: Inventoryof Kazakhstan Greenhouse GasEmissions and Sinks: 1990. In:Greenhouse Gas EmissionInventories. Interim Results from theU.S. Country Studies Program[Braatz, B.V., B.P. Jallow,S. Molnar, D. Murdiyarso,M. Perdomo, J.F. Fitzgerald(eds.)]. Kluwer AcademicPublishers, Dordrecht, theNetherlands, pp. 289-297.

12. Monocrovich, E., O. Pilifosova,E. Gossen and A. Startsev, 1995:GHG Emissions fromAgriculture, Land Use Changeand Forestry in Kazakhstan.Idojaras, 99, pp. 345-352.

13. Monokrovich, E.I., O.V. Pilifosova,D.Y. Danchuk, andG.A. Papafanasopulo, 1996:Estimating the Potential ofGreenhouse Gas Mitigation inKazakhstan. Special Issue:Methods for AssessingGreenhouse Gas Mitigation forCountries with Economies inTransition. EnvironmentalManagement, 20, Supplement 1,pp. S57-S64.

14. Pilifosova, O., I. Eserkepova,S. Mizina, P. Kozhametov,G. Chichasov, L. Lebed,S. Dolgikh, V. Golutsov,I. Skotselyas, V. Lee,K. Berentaev, N. Fedorova,E. Gossen, 1996: Vulnerabilityand Adaptation Assessment forKazakhstan. In: Vulnerability andAdaptation to Climate Change.Interim Results from the U.S.Country Studies Program[Smith, J. B., S. Hug, S. Lenhart,L. S. Mata, I. Nevesova andS. Toure (eds.)]. KluwerAcademic Publishers, Dordrecht,the Netherlands, pp. 161-181.

REFERENCES 75

15. Pilifosova, O., S. Mizina,I. Eserkepova, G. Chichasov,A. Shamen, 1997: Kazakhstan. In:National Climate Change ActionPlans: Interim Report for Developingand Transition Countries[Benioff, R., E. Ness, J. Hirst(eds.)]. Enviro-Management&Research, Inc., Arlington,Virginia, pp. 94-109.

16. Pilifosova, O., D. Danchuk,T. Temertekov, S. Izdebsky,T. Mandaria, 1997: MitigationTechnologies and Measures inEnergy Sector of Kazakhstan.Applied Energy, 56, pp. 341-350.

17. Pilifosova, O., D. Danchuk,T. Temertekov, S. Mizina,I. Eserkepova, 1997: MitigationAssessment for Kazakhstan. In:Global Climate Change MitigationAssessment: Results for14 Transitioning and DevelopingCountries [Meyers, S., B. Golberg,J. Sathaye, K. Simeonova (eds.)].Dordrecht/Boston/London,Kluwer Academic Publishers,pp. 97-108

18. Pilifosova, O., I. Eserkepova,S. Dolgih, 1997: Regional ClimateChange Scenarios under GlobalWarming in Kazakhstan. ClimaticChange, 36, pp. 23-40.

19. Shamen, A. (ed.), 1997:Proceedings of Workshop andInternational Conference onClimate Change.Hydrometeorology and Ecology, 3,pp. 254, (in Russian).

20. Statcommittee of the RK, 1997:National Counting of the Republic ofKazakhstan (Statistical Collection)1990-1996. Statistical and AnalysisCommittee, Almaty, Kazakhstan,pp. 86, (in Russian).

21. Statcommittee, 1998: KazakhstanBrief Statistical Year Book for 1997.Statistical and AnalysisCommittee under the Agency forStrategic Planning and Reformsof the Republic of Kazakhstan,Almaty, Kazakhstan, pp. 163,(in Russian).

22. UNEP, OECD, IEA, IPCC, 1995:The IPCC Guidelines for NationalGreenhouse Gas Inventories. HadleyCentre, Meteorological Office,Brackell, UK, Volumes 1, 2, and 3.

First National Communication Kazakhstan

Documents

Transcript of First National Communication Kazakhstan