Finland & Sweden: Incredible Success in ICT
-
Upload
petri-rouvinen -
Category
Technology
-
view
78 -
download
4
Transcript of Finland & Sweden: Incredible Success in ICT
Mika Pajarinen, Petri Rouvinen & Pekka Ylä-AnttilaETLA, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy (Etlatieto Oy)
Eric Giertz & Annika RickneKTH, Royal Institute of Technology (INDEK)
Finland & Sweden – Incredible Success in ICT*
Assessing past achievements and future potential in ICT: A joint future for Finland and Sweden?Finland’s Embassy in Stockholm, 19 March 2015.
* Kindly supported by VINNOVA & Tekes.
The Nordic ICT Saga – Some Historical Highlights
“Wherever two or three Swedes... or Finns... are gathered together…
immediately establish … a telephone exchange.”
Alfred R. Bennett in 1895.The Telephone Systems of the Continent of Europe.
Proposed by Carl-Gösta Åsdal, Televerket, 1969.
NMT, Nordisk Mobil Telefon, opens in 1981.
The largest mobile market worldwide.
Open & competitive (equipment).
Handset mkt shares, ‘85
Mobira(Nokia)25.7%
Ericsson16.9%
Mitsubishi
1982, GSM, Groupe Spécial Mobile
1987,the 1st tech spec
1991, Roll out
Tech: From analog to digital
New tier of communication
More intense competition
Higher industry speed
GSM
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
ICT Sector% of value added
Sources: OECD (incl. def’n), ETLA, KTH.Note: the denominator is the total value added as defined in the OECD/STAN database, whichis somewhat less than GDP.Ericsson 2000: Nordea.
Finland
FinlandwithoutNokia
Sweden
SwedenwithoutEricsson
NOW: Fin & Swe ICT sectors are similar ...
5–6% of GDP, 3–4% of work hours
... and different:
Fin ICT still +40% of business R&D, Swe 15%
Swe 2× Fin persons employedSwe 6× Fin companies (e.g., +11,000 ICT consultancies)
Swe has been growing & Fin shrinking since 2008 Fin employment decreased by 10,000Swe employment increased by 4,000
2nd disruption!?
1011
0101
1100
0010
3D
IoT
Digital Convergence+
Corporations
Systems/Hardware
Specific Solutions
Tech hegemony
Consumers
Content/Services
Platforms/Ecosystems
Concepts & Customers
0
2
4
6
8
10
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
ICT Sector% of value added
Finland
Finland– Nokia
Sweden
Sweden– Ericsson
Sweden was forced into the 2nd distruptionseveral years before Finland.
Ericsson & related business decline made a dent – but not a long term negative impact.
Explanatory factors and potential future success stories
From a corporate society to a time of turbulence
• Developing pairs: Ericsson/Televerket, Saab makes computers for public serv.
• Centrally planned infrastructure dev’t
• Competition in mobile communication: Comviq–Televerket
• Fast penetration of PC:s & phones
• Early applications in society (authorities, banking, e-commerce)
Change from a corporate society
• End of telecom operators monopolies
– Telia: IPO, no 3G license, merges with Sonera
• The IT-bubble bursts 2000
– Ericsson almost into bankruptcy
– Young ventures decline (Framfab, Icon Medialab, Spray)
– IT Consultants out of work
A time of turbulence
New specialized venturesICT-related business models
More time to adapt
Resources & competences remain• Fast penetration of 3G
• Ericsson survives with new business concept
New applications and ventures are born
Time & adaption
The importance of R&D-related IT consultancy firms
ICT applications move outside core sector
Growth of ICT consultancy sector
Early adoption of ICT in many different industries
ICT consultants play crucial part
Sweden has so far adapted wellOpportunities in subsectors(employment by subsector)
A good position globally
• IDC Information Society Index, WEF Network Readiness Index
• Early business interest: Cloud, Internet of things, Social media
• Growing subsectors, e.g.
– Netservices – a decade old subsector & quite large
– Gaming, 200+ firms, 50% established after 2010, most profitable, high growth of revenues, successful games, No 1 globally?
– E-health
Software16%
Net services12%
Repair, maint.
9%
IT operations
10%
Hardware, comp. 6%
IT consultants, commercial
systems9%
IT consultants, R&D
9%
Hardware, products &
systems19%
Up until the early 2000s, Nordic cooperation greatly contributed to Fin & Swe ICT success
Since then, trajectories & interests departed but, with the 2nd disruption, are again aligned
NMT/GSM per se cannot be replicated, surely there is scope for Nordic cooperation!?
Advertisement: ETLA-KTH study on Nordic ICT in the fall