Finding HMAS Sydney
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- 1. Australian Science in the Search forKormoranandSydney by Kim Kirsner and John Dunn [ Contact: [email protected] ] Alan Puckett Alan Puckett
2. 1.Summary Used with the approval of the artist Alan Puckett Alan Puckett 3. Summary This story is about Australian science, and the contribution that two Australian scientists made to the search for HSK Kormoran and HMAS Sydney II. Working in collaboration with theFinding Sydney Foundation ( FSF )from 2001, Kim Kirsner and John Dunn identified the position of HSK Kormoran within2.7 nautical miles.(Kirsner & Dunn, 2004). They also defined appropriate search boxes for bothKormoranandSydneyin 2005.The material was published inFSFsubmissions to the Commonwealth, the states, the RAN, and corporate and private donors during 2005, 2006 and early 2007.In this account Kirsner and Dunn outline the steps used to achieve these results. The procedure is objective, quantitative, and transparent, and it can therefore be applied to other search projects. The confidence distribution contours on the following page was the final step in a 13-year program to define the location ofKormoran . 4. 26 South 26 30 South 111 East Position ofKormoranestablished in 2008 5. 2.The Ships Alan Puckett 6. Kormoranwas a German raider, heavily armed for close range combat with lightly armed merchant vessels but disguised as an allied merchant ship.Kormoranleft Germany on December 23rd 1940, and sank eleven merchant ships prior to her engagement withSydney .Kormoranwas steaming north along the coast of Western Australia when she sightedSydney , and turned west toward to avoid combat. HSK Kormoran 7. Sydneywas armed and equipped for long range combat but with little or no advantage overKormoranat the range at which the battle unfolded.Sydneywas en route from Sunda Strait to Fremantle when contact was made withKormoran .Sydneyfollowed and gradually closed in onKormoranuntil, at a range of less than one nautical mile,Kormoranopened fire and both vessels were destroyed.HMAS Sydney II 8. 3.Oceanography Workshop (1991) 9. In 1991 Mike McCarthy of the West Australian Maritime Museum and Kim Kirsner of the University of Western Australia coordinated a workshop to determine the most likely area forKormoran . The keynote speakers were oceanographers or search and rescue experts. Their analyses converged on the area supported by theKormoransurvivors, near 26 South 111 East Oceanographic approaches cannot be used to define a precise site (e.g., Pearce, 1991); uncertainty in the direction and velocity of current and wind is too great. Despite the fact that the oceanographic evidence provided no support for a wreck near the Abrolhos Islands, more than 200 nautical miles from the site of the wrecks, the Parliamentary Inquiry (2001) failed to reject map dowsing, oral history or navigation-based claims for a search near the Abrolhos, and the RAN subsequently implemented extensive searches off the Islands 10. 111 East 26 South Steedman & McCormack (1991)Oceanographers Hughes (1991)Search and Rescue Position ofKormoran established in 2008 Penrose and Klaka (1991) Oceanographers The chart shows the search areas recommended by the professional Oceanographers and Search and Rescue experts at the1991 Oceanography Workshop. 11. 4.Domain Expertise Alan Puckett 12.
- Sources of information for wreck-hunting
- The variety of evidence available for wreck-hunting is daunting. Shipwrecks typically produce some or all of the following sources of information:
- First hand accounts by the Captain, the officers, and the crew,
- Navigational charts and records
- Signal records
- Lifeboats, Life-rafts, Life-belts, and Flotsam and Jetsam where hind-casting the position of the loss depends on an understanding of oceanography including the action of wind and current
- Accounts from observers on other vessels or the shore
- Second hand reviews by naval administrators and courts
- Historical descriptions and analyses
- Databases used for Anti-Submarine Warfare , a point highlighted for the first author by research staff at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute in Massachusetts during a visit in 1993
13. Role of Cognitive Science Cognitive Science comes into play when memory and decision making issues influence interpretation. The contrast between the reports from the Kormoran crew and the alleged observers on the coast illustrates the point. The survivors accounts were elicited after an interval of 7-21 days; They were mostly working in their domains of expertise (e.g., navigation); the information they provided was critical to survival, and, significantly, the information was elicited by domain experts. By contrast, the oral history reports involved remote events (> 40 years); their relevance to the loss ofSydneywas uncertain; the reports ranged along 200 nm of coastline; and the reports included everything from acrid smoke to sightings of the vessels to reflections from the clouds.Cognitive Science is also relevant when a problem involves numerous sources of information, or constraints, and integration is required. 14. Sources of expertise for wreck-hunting Navigation records often provide the best source of information for wreck-hunting. Bob Ballards achievements (Ballard, 2008) are substantially based on the successful use of navigation information. David Mearns too has used his expertise in this domain to good effect. In the case ofKormoranhowever, critical information survived the battle and a week at sea in the heads of the crew - the domain experts - and memory and forgetting were critical. In other cases, oceanography, history or oral history might be important.Because most of the information in the archives compiled in 1941 depended on the recollection of theKormoransurvivors, Kirsner and Dunns expertise was appropriate. Henceforth we will refer to this material as theKormoran Database .The in-water search depended on different skills, and we acknowledge Mearns expertise in this domain. 15. Science Science thrives on critical review. Most of the articles published by scientists are subjected to rigorous and occasionally brutal peer review. The system is not of course fool-proof; errors occur, and biases pose a constant hazard.Working together and independently, Kim Kirsner and John Dunn have published more than 150refereedarticles and chapters in the area of Cognitive Science. More importantly perhaps, we have attracted a combined total of approximately 15 grants from the Australian Research Council, another source of critical review. Kim Kirsner is an elected Fellow of the Australian Academy of Social Science. 16. 5.Cognitive Science Alan Puckett 17. 5.1Cognitive Science: TheKormoranDatabase 18. The 1941 interviews and interrogations constituted the primary source. Why? First, they were reported in November and December 1941, months or possibly years prior to the preparation of the diaries and coded dictionaries.Second, as survival was critical following disembarkation fromKormoran , it may be assumed that critical information was distributed among the five lifeboat crews, and not the property of Detmers alone. This information constitutes expert knowledge as distinct from memory in the traditional sense (See Speelman & Kirsner, 2005). Third, unless the reports associated with Detmers coded dictionary involve different dot patterns with the same information and there is no suggestion that this is the case - it may be assumed that their reliability reflects only the dot copying skills of Detmers or Detmers secretary 19.
- What is in theKormoranDatabase?
- The Database included the following reports based on interrogations with survivors conducted between November 26th and December 10th 1941
- Eighteen reports referred to 26 S 111 E. Ten further reports referred to either 26 S or 111 E.
- Six reports referred to a distance from land, the values given being 60 nm (1), 120 nm (3) and 150 nm (2). 120 nm was selected because it was the most frequent.
- Two reports stated that one lifeboat sailed 150 nm or 153 nm NE from the point of disembarkation fromKormoranto the coast
- One report stated that the battle occurred 160 nm SW of NW Cape. NW Cape and Cape Cuvier provide an obvious point of confusion, and Cape Cuvier was probably the target for all five lifeboats.
- Four reports referred to 130 nm SW of Shark Bay.
- Fourteen reports referred to 2634, 26 32, 26 31 or 26 30 S 111 E.
- Reports involving singletons and outliers were discarded. The geographical depictions inSection 5.3 Cognitive Science: Selection of Source Argumentsinclude constraints derived from other sources
20. Concentration of reports involving 26 South 111 East [FromKirsner, Norman & Dunn, 2003] 21. The frequency distribution is consistent with the assumption that theKormorandatabase consists of random errors around a single position [FromKirsner, Norman & Dunn, 2003,Finding Sydney Foundation , 2005] 22. 5.2Cognitive Science:Reliability of theKormoranDatabase? George Kingsley Zipf Harvard University (1902 1950) 23. Zipf's Law Do the reports reflect one carefully rehearsed story, as many critics claimed, or do they reflect ignorance, as if no-one had any idea at all, or do they reflect expert knowledge, about location, accompanied by random error? Zipf's law states that given some corpus of natural language utterances (or memory reports), the frequency of any word is inversely proportional to its rank in the frequency table.The most frequent word will occur approximately twice as often as the second most frequent word, which occurs twice as often as the fourth most frequent word, etc.Similar relationships occur in many other rankings, including memory reports .In the memory case, it is assumed that the spread of the reports reflects random error.The rankings are consistent with the assumption that the database is a reliable form of evidence; it does not prove that it is reliable. 24. Log Rank Log Frequency One frequent report like 26 S 111 E Many infrequent reports - like 120 nm SW of Fremantle Use of Zipfs Law to assess reliability? Black trianglesare reports fromKormoran survivors Red trianglesare reports fromThe War of theghosts, a memory study by Bartlett (1932) Grey circles are from asimulation based on Kormoransurvivorsreports 25. Comment The data conform to Zipf's law to the extent that the plot islinear in Log-Log coordinates. The function relating Log Frequency and Log Rank is approximately linear (see previous page), and the results are, therefore, consistent with the assumption that the survivors were telling the truth.The results do not prove that the survivors were telling the truth; science rarely works like that. Further support for the validity of the reports is present in the fact that Bunjes, an anti-Nazi, provided three different types of information that produced approximately the same solution. More evidence, if more evidence was required, came from the extra-ordinary number of survivors who pointed to26 South 111 East. Many of the crew were in a position to know, and this knowledge was critical to survival for the crew in the lifeboats. 26. 5.3Cognitive Science: Selection of Source Arguments Alan Puckett 27. Comment The following analysis of source selection is a summary. The detailed arguments will be published elsewhere.Mathematical integration of the sources described below produced Confidence Distribution Contours or a heat map, where probability follows heat, and the central position is 26 04 South 111 02 East, just 2.7 nautical miles from the position of the wreck ofKormoran(Kirsner & Dunn, 2004). Further collaboration involving the authors andFSFDirector Bob King produced appropriate search boxes forKormoranand Sydney, as depicted inFinding Sydney Foundation(2005). TheFSFadopted Kirsner and Dunns predictions for the positions and search boxes of both wrecks, and used the arguments and search boxes in numerous presentations to the Commonwealth, the States, the RAN and corporate and private donors during 2005, 2006 and 2007. Confidence distribution contours 28. Constraint 1 R eports referring to 26 South 111 East.Reports that referred to 26 Southor111 East were included under this constraint 29. Constraint 2 Reports that one life-boat sailed 150 nm NE fromKormoranto the coast (2 reports) 30. Constraint 3Reports that referred to 120 nm from land Six reports referred to 60 nm (1), 120 n (3) or 150 nm (2) as the distance from land.120 nm provided the best fit with the other constraints 31. Constraint 4 Report that battle occurred 160 nm SW of NW Cape - however assume that the referent was Cape Cuvier instead of NW Cape 32. Constraint 5 Reports that battle occurred 130 nm South-West of Shark Bay 33. Constraint 6 26 30 S 111 E Reports from Detmers referred to 2634, 26 32S, 26 31 and 26 30 S and 111 E 34. Constraint 7 Report that QQ signal fromKormoranreferred to 26 S 111 15 E Longitude was included in the analysis, and alternative latitudes were tested to determine the best fit with the balance of the sources. 35. Constraint 8 Report by Detmers thatKormoranwould (have been) off Shark Bay four hours after contact withSydney 36. Constraint 9 Circle of Equal Distance for two life-rafts reported by Dunn and Kirsner (2001) The analysis was originally implemented to test the claims advanced by Warren Whittaker, Glenys McDonald, David McDonald and others - that the action took place off the Abrolhos Islands. The analysis was mathematical and involved no assumptions about wind or current. Given equal velocity for 84 and 107 hours for two life-rafts, the circle defined therangeof positions from which they could have originated? The circle of Equal Distance passed within 2 nm of the wreck ofKormoran 37. Summary of Constraints Integration of these reports involved a mathematical decision model that gave equal weighting to all nine sources An alternative analysis involving weighting of the individual sources was not implemented. 38.
- Independent Review: Issues from Kirsner and Dunn (2004) that attracted comment from Mearns in debate among members of the Technical Search Committee in 2004/5
- The contrast between the stability and precision of the interrogation and diary evidence attributed to Detmers. The diary evidence is clear about location but not time, whereas the reverse applies to the interrogation evidence.
- The uncertainty associated with the latitude of the QQQQ signal, and its inclusion or exclusion from our active set of constraints
- The reliability of the information provided by Meyer, Bunjes, Linke and other crew
- The procedure used by us to determine Error of Fit for the Confidence Distribution Contours or Heat Map (See Email from Mearns to the author, December 7 th , 2004)
- The contribution of oceanography to the solution. Mearns criticised the use of Oceanography by Kirsner and Dunn (1998), although he later relied on Oceanographic evidence to explain the focus of his in-water search plan
39. 5.4Cognitive Science: Integration of constraints based on Human Judgement (Kirsner & Dunn, 1998) Alan Puckett 40. Kirsner and Dunn (1998) Predicted Position given as, Kormoransank a few miles to the north of 26 15 South 111 East. Error (1998) =Distance betweenPredictedandObserved11 nm Kirsner & Dunn (1998) was submitted to the Ed Punchard-ledHMAS Sydney Foundation Trustand theParliamentary Inquiryin 1998. TheTrustused our arguments as the starting point for a search plan. The search circle tabled at that time included the wreck ofKormoran . The paper published by Kirsner and Dunn (1998) formed part of our journey. However, the paper wasnotrecommended to theFSFby the authors, or adopted or even re-distributed by theFoundation .FSF / Mearns(2008) Observedposition ofKormorangiven as 26 06 South 111 04 East 41. Context Between 1993 and 2005, the search agenda was dominated by map dowsing, navigation and oral history claims, and the searches implemented by theRAN , theRAAFand private companies concentrated on the Abrolhos Islands, 200 nm from the wrecks. Prior to 2005, three groups supported a search in the vicinity of the wrecks, near 26 South 111 East; the Ed Punchard-ledHMAS Sydney Foundation Trustbetween 1996 and 2001; the Trusts successor, the Ted-Graham led- Finding Sydney Foundation (2001-2008) , and Olson, Hore, Goldsmith and Vickridge (2001). The appeal of the Abrolhos Island case to theRANappears to have been based on a desire to explain the loss ofSydneyby treachery on the part of theKormorancrew. We accept the argument advanced by Tom Frame (1991), that the answer to that question is probably unknowable. 42. 5.5Cognitive Science: Integration based on Mathematical Decision Model (Kirsner and Dunn, 2004) Alan Puckett 43. Confidence Distribution Contours or Heat Map In 2004 a mathematical decision model was applied to the Source Arguments or Constraints summarised above. Theheat mapwas the product of that process.Kirsner & Dunn (2004): Cognitive Reconstructionwithmathematical decision model The closest term tointegrationin the world of navigation istriangulation . We used mathematical integration to construct the Confidence Distribution Contours shown in this and the following images 44. Figure from Kirsnerand Dunn (2004) As submitted toMearns and theFinding SydneyFoundation in December, 2004. 45. 26 South 26 30 South 111 East 46. 26 South 26 30 South Kirsner and Dunn (2004) Predictedposition ofKormoran=26 04 South111 02 East 111 East 47. 26 South 26 30 South Kirsner and Dunn (2004) Predictedposition ofKormoran=26 04 South111 02 East FSF(2005) Search box forKormoranrecommended by Kirsner (2005), and adopted and published by theFSF( FSF, 2005 ) 111 East 48. 26 South 26 30 South Kirsner and Dunn (2004) Predictedposition ofKormoran=26 04 South111 02 East FSF(2005) Search box forKormoranrecommended by Kirsner (2005), and adopted and published by theFSF( FSF, 2005 ) FSF / Mearns(2008) Observedposition ofKormoran=26 06 South 111 04 East 111 East 49. 26 South 26 30 South Kirsner and Dunn (2004) Predictedposition ofKormoran=26 04 South111 02 East FSF(2005) Search box forKormoranrecommended by Kirsner (2005), and adopted and published by theFSF( FSF, 2005 ) FSF / Mearns(2008) Observedposition ofKormoran=26 06 South 111 04 East 111 East Kirsner and Dunn (2004) Error = 2.7 nm 50. 6.History of Search Definition (2001-2008) Alan Puckett Alan Puckett 51. 6.1 History of Search Definition: Mearns(2004) Alan Puckett Alan Puckett 52.
- Positions and search area recommended by Mearns during presentations to:
- The West Australian Maritime Museum (November, 2004a)
- Directors of theFSF(November, 2004b)
- The blue circles are the positions recommended by Mearns (2004a, b)
- The rectangle is the search box recommended by Mearns (2004a, 2004b)
- The water depth in this area demanded equipment rated for 6000 metres
Mearns (2004a, 2004b) 53. Mearns (2004a, 2004b) Mearns /FSF(2008)Position ofKormoranestablished by the FSF during search on MV Geosounder 54. 6.2 History of Search Definition: Meetingbetween Mearns and Kirsner (2004) Alan Puckett Alan Puckett Alan Puckett 55. 111 East 26 South Mearns 3 Mearns 1 Discussion about search positions between David Mearns and Kim Kirsner, December, 2004) The meeting was convened byFSFDirector Keith Rowe, and attended by Kathryn Hird as well as Mearns and Kirsner.FSFDirector Rowe recorded and plotted the recommended positions. Kirsner & Dunn (2004) Mearns 2 Positions nominated by Kirsner and Dunn (2004) and Mearns (2004), together with theObservedposition ofKormoran 56. 111 East 26 South Mearns 3 Mearns 1 Discussion about search positions between David Mearns and Kim Kirsner, December, 2004) Kirsner & Dunn (2004) Mearns 2 Position established forKormoranin 2008 Positions nominated by Kirsner and Dunn (2004) and Mearns (2004), together with theObservedposition ofKormoran 57. 6.3 History of Search Definition:FindingSydney Foundation(2005) Alan Puckett Alan Puckett 58. Finding Sydney Foundation (2005) Powerpoint display used in numerous presentations to the Common-wealth, the states, the RAN and private and corporate donors during 2005, 2006 and early 2007 (e.g., to Senator Ellison in May, 2005) 59. Kirsner & Dunn (2004) Predictedposition ofKormoran FSF(2005) Recommended Search Box forKormoran 60. Kirsner & Dunn (2004) Predictedposition ofKormoran FSF (2005) Recommended Search Box forKormoran Mearns (2004, FSF, 2005) Predicted positions ofKormoran Mearns (2004, FSF, 2005) Predicted positions ofKormoran Mearns (2004, FSF, 2005) Recommended Search BoxKormoran 61. Kirsner & Dunn (2004) Predictedposition ofKormoran FSF (2005) Recommended Search Box forKormoran Mearns (2004, FSF, 2005) Predicted positions ofKormoran Mearns (2004, FSF, 2005) Predicted positions ofKormoran Mearns (2004, FSF, 2005) Recommended Search BoxKormoran FSF / Mearns(2008) Observedposition ofKormoran 62. 6.4 History of Search Definition:FindingSydney Foundation(2007) Alan Puckett Alan Puckett 63. Finding Sydney Foundation(2007) FSF(2007) Map prepared and used byFSFfor submission to the Commonwealth [e.g., part of Funding Request submitted to Commonwealth, June, 2007] 64. Kirsner & Dunn (2004) and FSF (2005, 2007) Position recommended by Kirsner & Dunn (2004) Search Box attributed to Kirsner and Dunn byFSF 65. Kirsner & Dunn (2004) and FSF (2005, 2007) Position recommended by Kirsner & Dunn (2004) Search Box attributed to Kirsner and Dunn byFSF Mearns (2007) New positions and Search Box forKormoranattributed to Mearns byFSF (2007) 66. Kirsner & Dunn (2004) and FSF (2005, 2007) Position recommended by Kirsner & Dunn (2004) Search Box attributed to Kirsner and Dunn byFSF Mearns (2007) New positions and Search Box forKormoranattributed to Mearns byFSF (2007) FSF / Mearns (2008) Observedposition ofKormoran 67. Comment The positions and search boxes provided by Kirsner and Dunn in 2004 and 2005 were adopted and published via anFSFPOWERPOINT used for presentations to the Commonwealth, the states, the RAN, and corporate and private donors during 2005, 2006 and early 2007 (seeFinding Sydney Foundation, 2005 ).A paper and theKormoranDatabase were provided to the Cole Commission of Inquiry in 2008, at the Commissions request.If consideration is extended to the RAN, corporate search projects, the Cole Commission, and the funds provided to theFSF , expenditure on the search forKormoranandSydneywas c. $15M.Australian universities receive hundreds of millions of dollars for research, and theyencouragetheir staff to engage in outreach projects including the work of the Museums, and organizations such as theFinding Sydney Foundation .The Commonwealth and the Australian community are entitled to anaccurateaccount of the performance of their institutions and their staff. 68. 6.5 History of Search Definition : FindingSydney Foundation(2009) Alan Puckett Alan Puckett 69. Testimony to Cole Commission of Inquiry by Ted Graham ( Chairman, Finding Sydney Foundation, February 2nd, 2009 ) When I became seriously interested in trying to locateSydney , I spent a lot of time with Kim and John and I was quite convinced that their work and the work of the oceanographers and similar people who helped them determine that northern position - I was quite convinced that that was whereSydneyandKormoranlay.In 1998 I signed a letter to the Parliamentary Inquiry, which was under the banner of the former trust, saying how long we thought it would take us to findKormoran , and I have a feeling we mentioned three days. Ten years later, it took us 67 hours. So the estimate of three days, which was based on work that Dr Kirsner and John Dunn did, was remarkably accurate. That was the determination of position that theFSFtook with it and kept with it all the way through. The actual search in 2008 was undertaken using David Mearns' search box, but that search box also included Kim's, and as we know, on the third or fourth line, we foundKormoranfirst. So that's the background to the research. We used that research from 2001 right through. (page, 1599) 70. 7.In-Water Search forKormoran Alan Puckett Alan Puckett Alan Puckett 71. 26 South 111 East Kirsner & Dunn (2004) / FSF (2005)Predicted position ofKormoran Recommended Search box forKormoran (< 400square nautical miles ) 72. 26 South 111 East Mearns (2008) In-water Search box forKormoran(1600 - 1800 square nautical miles) Kirsner & Dunn (2004) / FSF (2005)Predicted position ofKormoran Recommended Search box forKormoran 73. 26 South 111 East FSF / Mearns(2008) Search Track 1 74. 26 South 111 East FSF / Mearns(2008) Search Track 2 75. 26 South 111 East FSF / Mearns(2008) Search Track 3 76. 26 South 111 East FSF / Mearns(2008) Search Track 4 77. 26 South 111 East FSF / Mearns(2008) Discovery ofKormoran 78. 8.Cognitive Science: Search forKormoran : Performance Review Alan Puckett Alan Puckett Alan Puckett 79. How precise is 2.7 nautical miles The oceanographers and search and rescue solutions ranged from approximately 15 to approximately 40 nm fromKormoran .The final solution offered by the historians was approximately 11 nm fromKormoran , close enough to support discovery in an in-water search. The solutions published by Mearns (Mearns, 2004a) or attributed to Mearns ( FSF , 2005; 2007) prior to the in-water search ranged from 17 to 45 nm fromKormoran .The performance of the Cognitive Scientists reveals a traditional learning curve (See Speelman & Kirsner, 2005). Thus, Using a Search and Rescue model Kirsner (Kirsner, 1991, Kirsner, 1992 and Kirsner and Hughes (1993) identified positions approximately 20 nautical miles fromKormoran . Using cognitive reconstructionwithouta mathematical decision model, Kirsner and Dunn (1998a) identified a position approximately 10 nautical miles fromKormoran(a few miles north of 26 15 South 111 East). Using cognitive reconstructionwitha mathematical decision model, Kirsner and Dunn (2004) identified a position approximately 3 nautical miles fromKormoran . 80. [Distance between predicted and observed] Oceanographers, Marine Surveyors and Search and Rescue experts Distance (nm) betweenpredictedandobservedpositions ofKormoranfor solutions offered by Oceano-graphers, Marine Surveyors and Search and Rescue experts. The relevant publications are for Steedman & McCormack (1991), Hughes (1991), Penrose & Klaka (1991), Anderson (1997), Hughes (2001) and Griffin (2008) 81. [Distance between predicted and observed] Olson Distance (nm) between predicted and observed positions ofKormoranfor solutions offered by the Historians. The relevant publications are from Olson (1995) and Olson, Hore, Goldsmith and Vickridge (2001) 82. [Distance between predicted and observed] [Distance between predicted and observed] Mearns Mearns (2004-2007)Positions published by Mearns (Mearns, 2004a, 2004b), or attributed to Mearns by theFSF(2005, 2007). 83.
- Distance (nm) betweenpredictedandobservedpositions ofKormoranfor solutions offered by Kirsner and his colleagues.
- The contributions fall into three phases based on:
- Search and Rescue models (1991-1993)
- Cognitive Reconstruction without a mathematical decision model (1997-1998)
- Cognitive Reconstruction with mathematical decision model (2004)
Kirsner and Kirsner and DunnSH: Sam Hughes 84. Area fornext map Phase 3 (2004) Based on Cognitive SciencewithMathematical Decision Model - Position was the only one offered to or used by theFinding Sydney Foundation Position ofKormoran Phase 1 (1991-1993) Based on Search and Rescue model with collaboration and advice from Sam Hughes, a SAR expert Phase 2 (1997-1998) Based on Cognitive Reconstructionwithout Mathematical Decision Model 85. Skill Acquisition Kirsner and Dunns contribution to search definition reflects skill acquisition, as they moved down the learning curve, from novices in 1991 to experts in 2004. The phases are described below: Phase 1 (1991-1993): Work based on Search and Rescue model involving collaboration with Sam Hughes (Kirsner, 1991; Kirsner, 1992a; 1992b; Kirsner and Hughes, 1993) Phase 2 (1997-1998): Based on Cognitive Science without a Mathematical Decision Model (Kirsner, 1997a; Kirsner & Dunn, 1998a) Phase 3 (2004): Based on Cognitive Science with a Mathematical Decision Model (Kirsner & Dunn, 2004) Learning curves follow similar functions for laboratory as well as real world tasks such as probability of death in aerial combat, surgical skill, industrial production rates, and a host of other tasks. See Speelman and Kirsner (2005) for a review of Learning Curves 86. 9.Areas of the search boxes Alan Puckett Alan Puckett Alan Puckett 87. The figure on the final slide in this section indicates the approximate sizes of the search boxes recommended or used in the search forKormorantogether with comparable areas associated with the searches forTitanic ,BismarckandYorktown . Theprecisiongenerally associated with Ballards navigational solutions is clear.Theimprecisionassociated with the Search and Rescue and Oceanographic solutions is equally clear.The area recommended by Griffin in 2008 is depicted in the background of slide 10, as a dark green oval nearly 200 nm from North to South.The bases for the observed degrees of precision or imprecision in the hybrid approaches adopted by Kirsner and Dunn (2004) and Mearns (2008) are less clear. 88. The areas shown in the figure and text are square nautical miles () Analysis of Search Boxes 89. 10.Review of German Sources Kapitn zur See Theodor Detmers Kriegsmarine (1902 1976) 90. Theodor Detmers, Captain ofKormoran TheKormoranRecord included 15 reports attributed to Detmers.These reports involved six positions comprising 26 S 111 E (2 reports, correct position), 26 31 S 111 E (1), 26 32 S 111 E (6), 26 S 34 S 111 E (4), 26 S 110 E (1) and 25 S 111 E (1).Ten of the reports referred to the position as the Action or Engagement position; two referred to the pre-action sighting, and three were ambiguous. Eight of the reports were recorded between one and two weeks after the battle, and involved interviews or interrogations withKormoransurvivors. The date of origin of the coded dictionary is unclear. The extent to which the language and interrogation conditions contributed to the spread of the positions is unclear. Olson, Hore, Goldsmith and Vickridge (2001) extracted the correct reading from this complex and demanding data set. Their work and their solution anticipated Mearns apparent adoption of the same solution by seven years. 91. Henry Meyer, Navigator ofKormoran TheKormoranRecord included seven reports attributed to Meyer.These reports involved four positions. The positions comprised 27 S 111 E (4 reports), 26 30 S 111 E (1), 26 S 111 E (1) and 150 nm South East of the landing position for Meyers lifeboat. The sequence is systematic, and fascinating. The reports involving 27 S 111 E appear to have been provided prior to November 30 th , 1941. This position is nearly 60 nm from the wreck. The report involving 26 30 S 111 E was provided on December 1st, 1941, possibly after Meyer had been reunited with Detmers. This position is nearly 30 nm from the wreck. The report involving distance sailed provided an accurate solution, near 26 S 111 E. The final report, specifying 26 S 111 E, was discovered on the back of a family photograph donated to the West Australian Maritime Museum by Meyers son in 2000. It is possible that Meyer provided misleading information during the Search and Rescue operation. 92. The crew The procedure adopted by Kirsner and Dunn (2004) assumed that reliable knowledge about the location of the battle was distributed among the crew because that information was critical to their survival in the lifeboats in the week following the engagement.Kirsner and Dunn used the reports provided by the Captain, the Navigator, one of the prize Captains, and numerous signal personal. While virtually every reporter and the majority of the reports included an error of some sort; treated as a set they pointed to the precise position of the wreck ofKormoran . Most of the relevant reports emanated from domain experts working in their domain of expertise; that is, the crew. 93. 11.TheSearchforSydney Captain Joseph Burnett RAN (1899 1941) 94. In 1991, McCarthy proposed that the search forKormoranshould precede the search forSydneybecause more information was available about the location ofKormoran . In 1997 Rear Admiral Holthouse (ret), an engineer with combat experience, cast doubt on the Abrolhos Island claim forSydney , arguing that the absence of survivors and signals left little room for a 20-40 hour voyage after the engagement. Sydneywas on fire after the battle. TheKormoransurvivors reports provided estimates of the movement ofSydneyfollowing the battle, and enabled Kirsner (1997) to plot changes in the rate of separation between the vessels from 1800 hours to the last reported sighting some four hours later. A figure depicting the rate of separation is shown on the following page (Kirsner, Norman and Dunn, 2003). The following image shows the product of this analysis. The 1997 analysis provided a prediction for the position of the wreck ofSydneyrelative toKormoran . The search area forSydneywas specified inFSF(2005) 95. Each circle shows one report from a survivor indicating the time and the estimated distance ofSydney . The general direction offered with these reports was South-East. [from Kirsner (1997) and Kirsner, Norman and Dunn, 2003] 96. Finding Sydney Foundation (2005) Finding Sydney Foundation (2005) Map prepared and used byFSF for presentations to the Commonwealth, the states, the RAN, and the private and corporate donors 97. Kirsner & Dunn (2004) Predictedposition ofKormoran FSF (2005) Recommended search quadrant forSydneygivenpredictedposition ofKormoran . 98. Kirsner & Dunn (2004) Predictedposition ofKormoran FSF (2005) Recommended search quadrant for Sydney givenPredictedposition ofKormoran . Mearns / FSF (2008) Observedposition ofKormoran FSF (2005) Adjusted search quadrant forSydneygivenObservedposition ofKormoran. 99. Kirsner & Dunn (2004) Predictedposition ofKormoran FSF (2005) Recommended search quadrant forSydneygivenPredictedposition ofKormoran . FSF (2008) Observedposition ofKormoran FSF (2005) Adjusted search quadrant forSydneygivenObservedposition ofKormoran . FSF/Mearns(2008) Observedposition ofSydney 100. 12.Conclusions Alan Puckett Alan Puckett 101. Australian Science Between 1991 and 2004 Kirsner and Dunn systematically revised and refined their approach to search definition, and reduced their error the distance between thepredictedandobservedpositions forKormoran- from approximately 20 nautical miles in 1991 to less than 3 nautical miles in 2004. In 2004 we used seven reports from theKormoransurvivors, one QQ signal fromKormoran , and one life-raft drift analysis together with a mathematical decision model to predict the location ofKormoran .The successful application of transparent and systematic scientific procedures demonstrates that Cognitive Science has a significant role to play in wreck-hunting. The interested reader is referred to Kirsner and Dunn (2004) for a more detailed account of the analyses used to predict the location ofKormoran . 102. Precedent Independent review and precedent are the most important principles in scientific discovery.The position identified forKormoranby Kirsner and Dunn in 2004 was correct, to within spitting distance, asFSFDirector Keith Rowe put it in an email to the authors in 2008. The arguments and recommendations were provided on apro bonobasis to theFSF and Mearns in 2004. They were reviewed by Mearns in that year, and by theFSFand Mearns in 2005.Mearns provided extensive criticism of Kirsner and Dunns (2004) analysis, however the solution was adopted and used by theFSFin presentations and submissions to the Commonwealth, the states, the RAN and corporate and private donors in 2005, 2006 and early 2007.In 2008, as theMV Geosounderdeparted Geraldton, Mearns produced a search box that includedKormoran . 103. TheFinding Sydney Foundation FSFpublications demonstrate that theFoundationhad adopted an appropriate location forKormoranas early as 2001, the year in which the Foundation was established.By 2004, theFSFsearch definition team (Kim Kirsner, John Dunn, and Bob King) had provided the Foundation with a precise target forKormoranjust 2.7 nm from the wreck ofthat vessel . In 2005 they added a search box and search quadrant that includedKormoranandSydneyrespectively (seeFSF , 2005) The search box recommended by theFSFteam forKormoranin 2004 was approximately 400 square nautical miles.Kormoranis more or less dead centre in that search box. The search box adopted by Mearns in 2008 was approximately 1800 square nautical miles.The search quadrant recommended by theFSFteam for the search forSydneyin 2005 was 570 square nautical miles.Sydneywas in that quadrant. 104. TheRoyal Australian Navy(1941) It is evident that the Search and Rescue operations co-ordinated by the RAN in 1941 focused on the right general area The major search boxes involving RAAF Hudson aircraft were centred on the approximate location of the wreck ofKormoran(See Olson, 2000 for maps of the RAAF search areas).It is also clear that the interviews and interrogations conducted by the RAN after the disaster elicited generally reliable information about the location of the battle, and about the distance between the ships at the outset and the end of the engagement.The Kormoran database includes many errors, but no more than could be expected given the delay seven to 21 days after the battle and the language and recording conditions that the RAN personnel were operating under.Thesearch definitionandknowledge elicitationor interrogation teams activated by the RAN in 1941 deserve recognition for a job well done. 105. 13.Authorship Alan Puckett Alan Puckett Alan Puckett 106. Kim Kirsnerreceived bachelors and doctoral degrees from the University of London. Following a post-doctoral fellowship at the University of Toronto, Kim joined the University of Western Australia. Kim was elected Fellow of the Academy of Social Science in 1997.Kim has published numerous books, book chapters, refereed articles and conference proceedings on memory, aphasia, bilingualism, implicit memory, language production, skill acquisition, cognitive reconstruction and command and control. 107. John Dunnreceived his BSc (Hons) and doctoral degrees from the University of Western Australia. John has taught at the universities of Queensland, Western Australia and Adelaide, where he is currently Professor and Deputy Head of the School.John has published numerous books, book chapters, and refereed articles and conference proceedings in visual attention, cognitive psychology, memory including work on methodological issues in neuropsychology, decision-making in complex environments, and mathematical models. 108. 14.Acknowledgements Alan Puckett Alan Puckett Alan Puckett 109.
- Mike McCarthy
- Significant credit for the successful search for HMAS Sydney must go to Mike McCarthy, Curator at the Western Australian Maritime Museum. Mike served the entire HMAS Sydney community with commitment, courtesy, and humour for more than 20 years.
- TheTechnical Search Committeeof theFinding Sydney Foundation
- TheTechnical Search Committee- responsible for search recommendations from 2004 to the departure of theMV Geosounderfrom Geraldton in 2008 provided professional review and analysis under difficult conditions.
- The recommendations of theTechnical Search Committeeattracted fierce opposition from the Map Dowsers, the Oral Historians, and the Navigators.
- Bob King deserves recognition for his exceptional contribution to theTechnical Search Committeeas Project Manager for theFinding Sydney Foundation.
- Grateful acknowledgement is made to the following people for technical and conceptual contributions to our analysis and presentation.
- Richard Bone (IT consultant, ELK Software, Perth)
- Mark Comeadow (IT consultant, CISCO, London)
- Zina Cordery (IT consultant, Edith Cowan University)
- Kevin Durkin (Professor, School of Psychology, Strathclyde University)
- Kim Heitman (Senior Legal Officer, University of Western Australia
- Kathryn Hird (Professor and Associate Dean, School of Medicine, University of Notre Dame Australia)
- Doug Robb (Information Manager, School of Psychology, University of Western Australia)
- Ming Zhu (Geo-scientist, School of Mathematical and Geospatial Sciences, Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology University).
- The authors wish to acknowledge financial and administrative support from the following:
- The Australian Research Council
- The Australian War Memorial
- The Western Australian Maritime Museum
- The University of Western Australia
- The School of Psychology at the University of Western Australia
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