Financial State of the Utility Industry · *The Allowed ROE represents the electric cases settled...
Transcript of Financial State of the Utility Industry · *The Allowed ROE represents the electric cases settled...
Budgeting & Financial Forecasting Committee Meeting
Newport Beach, CA
Financial State of the Utility Industry
Mark Agnew, EEI
Wednesday, May 24, 2017
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Financial Highlights as of 03-31-2017
Stock Performance
EEI Index DJIA S&P NASDAQ
YTD 6.1% 5.2% 6.1% 9.8%
1-year 7.5% 19.9% 17.2% 21.4%
5-year 79.3% 77.5% 86.7% 91.2%
10-year 99.9% 117.8% 106.3% 144.1%
Dividends
Credit Ratings
• Yield = 3.4% • All companies paying a dividend • 40 of 44 companies increased dividend in 2016
• Strengthening ‘BBB+’ Average • Outlook 85% Stable or Positive
Source: EEI Finance Department, S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Note: Stock returns are total returns, ending 03-31-2017, (i.e., include dividends) except for NASDAQ, which is price appreciation only.
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Industry Capital Expenditures
Actuals
Projections (August 2016)
Projections (April 2017)
Source: EEI Finance Department, company reports, S&P Global Market Intelligence (April 2017).
Notes: Total company spending of U.S. Investor-Owned Electric Utilities, consolidated at the parent or appropriate holding company. Projections based on publicly available information and extrapolated for companies reporting fewer than three projected years (0.1% of the industry for 2018 and 2019).
120.8
104.5
96.5
119.7113.8
109.0
74.1
82.877.7
74.378.6
90.3 90.396.1
104.0
112.5
$30 B
$40 B
$50 B
$60 B
$70 B
$80 B
$90 B
$100 B
$110 B
$120 B
$130 B
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
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$6.2B 6% $4.7B 4%
$5.7B 5%$3.4B 3%
$13.3B 12% $17.9B 15%
$19.3B 18% $20.8B 17%
$28.7B 26%$32.0B 26%
$35.3B 32%
$42.0B 35%
$0 B
$20 B
$40 B
$60 B
$80 B
$100 B
$120 B
Projected Functional CapEx
$108.6 B
as of September 2015 as of August 2016
$120.8 B
Generation
Distribution
Transmission
Gas-Related
Environment
Other
2015P 2016P
Notes: Total company functional spending of U.S. Investor-Owned Electric Utilities. 2015P total does not sum to 100% due to rounding. Projections based on publicly available information and extrapolated for companies not reporting functional detail (1.3% and 0.7% of the industry for 2015 and 2016, respectively).
Source: EEI Finance Department, company reports , S&P Global Market Intelligence (August 2016).
To be updated summer 2017
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US Electric IOUs Rating History 2002 – 2016
Source: EEI Finance Department.
Average Industry Credit Rating is Increasing BBB BBB+
18%
8%2%
9%21%
10%
25%29%
18%
16%
23%
40%
13%
12%24%
19%
8% 6%
2002 2009 2016
A or higher
A-
BBB+
BBB
BBB-
Below BBB-
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Shift to More Regulated Strategies
Note: Based on yearend assets.
Source: EEI Finance Department.
52%
69%
5%
11%43%
20%
2002 2016
Other
RegulatedNatural GasCompany
RegulatedElectricCompany
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Rate Case Activity: Volume and Lag U.S. Investor-Owned Electric Utilities
*Average Regulatory Lag is defined here as the amount of time between the filing of and ruling on a rate case. This does not take into consideration the preparation time leading up to an initial filing. MRQ = Most Recent Quarter. 4Q Avg = Trailing four-quarter average.
01020304050607080
Cases
Number of Electric Rate Cases Filed (Trailing 12 Months)
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence / Regulatory Research Associates (RRA), EEI Finance Department, EEI Rate Department.
Volatility4Q Avg
MRQ
0
6
12
18
24Months
Average Regulatory Lag (Quarterly)*
8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
2
4
6
8
10
Rate Case Activity: Average ROEs Requested ROE vs. 10-Year US Treasury Yield
Spread
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield*
Requested ROE*
RO
E &
Yie
ld (
%)
*Requested ROE represents the equal-weight average of all electric cases filed during the indicated period. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield is the average of daily reported yields during each period.
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence / Regulatory Research Associates (RRA), EEI Finance Department, EEI Rate Department.
9
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Rate Case Activity: Average ROEs Allowed ROE vs. Corresponding Requested ROE
Spread
Allowed ROE*
Requested ROE*
RO
E (%
)
*The Allowed ROE represents the electric cases settled during the indicated period while the Requested ROE represents the value requested by the company when the cases were initially filed, generally during an earlier period (i.e., the regulatory lag is not factored in). Average returns are equal-weight.
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence / Regulatory Research Associates (RRA), EEI Finance Department, EEI Rate Department.
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Actual Average ROE of
Regulated Subsidiaries U.S. Investor-Owned Electric Utilities
Notes: Based on SEC-reported numbers and may differ from results calculated for other regulatory purposes. Company “universe” is static through history and is defined by active regulated subsidiaries of EEI member companies as of 2016 year-end. Average ROE is a weighted average as it equals the total net income of the industry over the total average common equity balances at the beginning and ending of each year for the industry. 10 Source: SNL Financial / Regulatory Research Associates (RRA), EEI Finance Department.
9.2%9.4%9.5%9.2%9.3%
10.2%9.5%
9.1%9.9%
10.5%10.1%
9.7%
12.7%
10.1%
10.9%
14.3%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
2016201520142013201220112010200920082007200620052004200320022001
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Status of M&A Activity U.S. Investor Owned Electric Utilities, 1995-2016
Source: EEI Finance Department.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Number of Transactions
Completed (113 total)
Announced (140 total)
Withdrawn (29 total)
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Significant electric/gas deals closing in 2016
- Duke Energy / Piedmont Natural Gas
- Southern Co. / AGL Resources
- Dominion Resources / Questar
- Black Hills Corp. / SourceGas Holdings
- DTE Energy / Appalachia Gathering System, Stonewall Gas
Gathering
Record-high premiums
- Supported by low cost capital
International interest remains
Recent regulatory rejection
- Great Plains Energy / Westar Energy
Recent M&A Trends
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ESG = Environmental, Social & Governance
Investors want relevant and comparable reporting
Several areas of activisim
- Norges Bank
- California Insurance Commission
- SASB (Sustainability Accounting Standards Board)
- Numerous Shareholder proposals
• PPL proposal recently passed
EEI initiatives
Emerging Issue – ESG/Sustainability
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EEI Tax Reform Principles
Interest Deductibility
State & Local Taxes
Normalization
Excess Deferred Taxes
Dividend Tax Rates
Tax Reform
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www.EEI.org/QFU
Mark Agnew Director, Financial Analysis
202-508-5049
Bill Pfister Manager, Financial Analysis
202-508-5531
Michael Buckley Financial Analyst
202-508-5614
EEI Finance Department Resources
• Financial Review (annual) Incorporates all of the following reports and additional industry material
• Stock Performance Financial market performance (Price, TSR, etc.) of proprietary EEI member index and
equity analyst opinions
• Credit Ratings Holding company ratings & rating agency activity
• Dividends Dividend-related actions of EEI members and relevant issues
• Rate Case Summary Regulatory filings during the quarter and recent / current trends
• Industry Consolidated Financial Statements (SEC and FERC Form 1) • Income Statement • Balance Sheet • Cash Flow Statement
Examples of EEI Finance Public Reports & Data Items updated quarterly unless otherwise indicated
EEI Finance Contacts
Richard McMahon Vice President Energy Supply & Finance 202-508-5574 [email protected]
Mark Agnew Sr. Director, Financial Analysis 202-508-5049 [email protected]
Bill Pfister Director, Financial Analysis
202-508-5531 [email protected]
Michael Buckley Senior Financial Analyst
202-508-5614 [email protected]
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State Commission Rankings Regulatory Research Associates (RRA)
Regulatory Environment
Ranking Legend for States Above
1.
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence / Regulatory Research Associates (RRA), EEI Finance Department, as of May 2017.
Notes: Pending Rate Cases and Rates Cases in Last 3 Years include filings for Electric, Natural Gas, and Steam service types. These cases include both full and limited-issue (e.g., rider update) cases.
TX
RICT
NY
PA
ND
SD
NMAZ
NV
CA
OR
WA
ID
MT
WY
UTKS
NE
OK
MN
WI
MI
IA
MO
AR
LAMS AL GA
FL
SC
NC
VA
IL INOH
KY
TN
WV
ME
MA
NHVT
NJDE
MDDC
CO