Financial results, Q1 2012 · 2015. 1. 28. · Highlights of Q1 2012 Profit of DKK 167 million...

27
1 Alm. Brand Financial results, Q1 2012 Webcast 16 May 2012

Transcript of Financial results, Q1 2012 · 2015. 1. 28. · Highlights of Q1 2012 Profit of DKK 167 million...

Page 1: Financial results, Q1 2012 · 2015. 1. 28. · Highlights of Q1 2012 Profit of DKK 167 million before losses and writedowns Profit of DKK 82 million after losses and writedowns Non-life

1

Alm. Brand

Financial results, Q1 2012

Webcast 16 May 2012

Page 2: Financial results, Q1 2012 · 2015. 1. 28. · Highlights of Q1 2012 Profit of DKK 167 million before losses and writedowns Profit of DKK 82 million after losses and writedowns Non-life

2

Highlights of Q1 2012

Profit of DKK 167 million before losses and writedowns

Profit of DKK 82 million after losses and writedowns

Non-life insurance:

Strong CR of 88.9

Few weather-related claims, improved underlying business and positive run-off

results

Still strong expense ratio of 15.7

Banking:

Higher funding costs due to successful deposit campaign

Loan book reduced with DKK 0.3 billion adjusted for losses and writedowns

Losses and writedowns of DKK 85 million.

Life insurance:

25% growth in pension contributions. Good and stable expense and risk result

Good investment results - collective bonus potential of 6.0%

Outlook for 2012

Increased to DKK 525 million from DKK 450 million before losses and writedowns.

Combined ratio around 91.5

G R O U P

Page 3: Financial results, Q1 2012 · 2015. 1. 28. · Highlights of Q1 2012 Profit of DKK 167 million before losses and writedowns Profit of DKK 82 million after losses and writedowns Non-life

3

Non-life insurance - Financial highlights in brief Results

Result before tax of DKK164 million

Premiums increased by 2.3 %

Increased costs for July 2011 cloudburst but

covered by reinsurance

Generally few weather-related claims

Combined ratio

Combined ratio improved to 88.9 from 97.4

Combined ratio impacted by

Weather-related claims

Underlying business

Major claims

Reinsurance recoveries

÷ Reinsurance costs

N O N - L I F E I N S U R A N C E

64.5%

DKK

1,195m

Key figures (DKKm) Q1

2012 2011

Gross premiums 1,195 1,168

Investment income 5 14

Claims expenses -971 -880

Expenses -187 -182

Reinsurance 97 -76

Technical result 139 44

Investments return after technical

interest 25 -7

Profit before tax 164 37

Combined ratio 88.9 97.4

Underlying

combined ratio 81.8 84.4

Page 4: Financial results, Q1 2012 · 2015. 1. 28. · Highlights of Q1 2012 Profit of DKK 167 million before losses and writedowns Profit of DKK 82 million after losses and writedowns Non-life

4

Premium income

N O N - L I F E I N S U R A N C E

Trend in premium income

Premiums up by 2.3 % on Q1 2011

Private premiums up by 2.3%

Commercial premiums up by 2.4%

Increase primarily due to premium

increases

Customer outflow declined

2,507 2,504 2,540

617 631

2,207 2,258 2,232

551 564

4,714 4,762 4,772

1,168 1,195

2009 2010 2011 Q1 2011 Q1 2012

Gro

ss p

rem

ium

s (

DK

K m

illio

n)

Private Commercial

Page 5: Financial results, Q1 2012 · 2015. 1. 28. · Highlights of Q1 2012 Profit of DKK 167 million before losses and writedowns Profit of DKK 82 million after losses and writedowns Non-life

5

Impact on financial results

N O N - L I F E I N S U R A N C E

Combined ratio Increased gross claims ratio

Higher costs for July 2011

cloudburst

Covered by reinsurance

Claims ratio otherwise impacted by

Premium increases

Lower claims frequency on

underlying business

Weather-related expenses

Very little snow

No significant storms

Offset by cold February

Run-off result primarily related to

workers’ compensation

67.9 73.5

101.3

75.3 81.3

20.8 19.9

19.5

15.6 15.7 4.5

4.8

4.3

6.5

-8.1

93.2 98.2

125.1

97.4 88.9

Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012

Gross claims ratio Gross expense ratio Net reinsurance ratio

Page 6: Financial results, Q1 2012 · 2015. 1. 28. · Highlights of Q1 2012 Profit of DKK 167 million before losses and writedowns Profit of DKK 82 million after losses and writedowns Non-life

6

Combined ratio - Development from Q1 2011 to Q1 2012

N O N - L I F E I N S U R A N C E

Catastrophe programme reinstated due

to July 2011 cloudburst costs

Expenses in line with last year

Positive run-off result related primarily to

workers’ compensation

Significantly lower weather-related claims

compared to normal

Lower claims frequency as a result of

higher deductibles partly offset by

increased average claim

Increase in average claim lower than

premium increase

Premiums increased

97.4%

88.9%

0.1%

0.9%

0.0%

0.4%

-3.0%

-0.1%

-3.7%

-0.7%

-2.3%

Combined ratio Q1 2011

Reinsurance

Reinstatement of reinsurance

Expenses

Other

Run-off

Major claims

Weather-related claims

Change in claims

Premiums

Combined ratio Q1 2012

Page 7: Financial results, Q1 2012 · 2015. 1. 28. · Highlights of Q1 2012 Profit of DKK 167 million before losses and writedowns Profit of DKK 82 million after losses and writedowns Non-life

7

Positive trend in underlying business

N O N - L I F E I N S U R A N C E

Underlying combined ratio continues to

develop positively

Increased premiums

New terms and conditions

Higher deductibles

Procurement

Cost reductions

Fewer claims compared with the same

period last year

Limited snowfall caused motor claims

to decline by 14%

Burglaries dropped by 5%

Good development in private building

÷ Commercial buildings still

underperforming

81.8 81.6

87.4 87.8

84.4

81.8

Q1 2007 Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

Q1 2011 Q1 2012

Number (index) Avg. claim (index) Claims (index)

Note: Excluding workers compensation

Page 8: Financial results, Q1 2012 · 2015. 1. 28. · Highlights of Q1 2012 Profit of DKK 167 million before losses and writedowns Profit of DKK 82 million after losses and writedowns Non-life

8

Positive trend in major claims

Note: Major claims are defined as claims in excess of DKK 1 million

N O N - L I F E I N S U R A N C E

Major claims continue to be lower

than expected

Major claims in line with Q1 2011

Fewer claims but higher

average claim

Preventive measures still in focus

Risk-reduction team

Fixed-sum insurance

478

288 277

413 373

321 331 284

363

494 449

355 336

84

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q1 2012

DK

K m

illio

n

Claims (2011-DKK) Expected claims

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2008 2009 2010 2011 Q1 2011 Q1 2012

Number (index) Avg. claim (index) Claims (index)

Page 9: Financial results, Q1 2012 · 2015. 1. 28. · Highlights of Q1 2012 Profit of DKK 167 million before losses and writedowns Profit of DKK 82 million after losses and writedowns Non-life

9

271 199 61 213 80 90 133 121 227 103 157 497 187 35

Anatol 3,100 Erwin 1,048

July cloudburst 785

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q1 2012

Claims (2011-DKK) Expected claims

Weather-related claims

N O N - L I F E I N S U R A N C E

Note: Figures are before reinsurance recoveries

DK

K m

illi

on

Very few weather-related claims in Q1 2012

Very little snow

No significant storms

Cold February resulted in frost claims

Page 10: Financial results, Q1 2012 · 2015. 1. 28. · Highlights of Q1 2012 Profit of DKK 167 million before losses and writedowns Profit of DKK 82 million after losses and writedowns Non-life

10

Expense ratio exceeding target

N O N - L I F E I N S U R A N C E

The target range is unchanged at 16-17

Guidance for 2012 expense ratio of around 16.5

Expense ratio in Q1 2012 was 15.7

Achieved through an ambitious cost reduction programme focusing on

Better back-office system / IT

development and processes

Rethinking the distribution

strategy

Staff reductions

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

22%

Q1

H1

Q1

-Q3

FY

Q1

H1

Q1

-Q3

FY

Q1

H1

Q1

-Q3

FY

Q1

2009 2010 2011 2012

Page 11: Financial results, Q1 2012 · 2015. 1. 28. · Highlights of Q1 2012 Profit of DKK 167 million before losses and writedowns Profit of DKK 82 million after losses and writedowns Non-life

11

2008

2009

Note: Combined and expense ratios are stated at group level.

N O N - L I F E I N S U R A N C E

Alm. Brand among top performers - Peer group comparison

Exp

en

se

rati

o

Co

mb

ined

rati

o

19.0

14.7

17.1

20.0 18.5

14.9

17.2

20.4

17.6

15.4 17.0

20.3

15.9 15.7 16.8

21.3

15.7 16.8

96.5

82.4 88.2

97.5 98.0 91.1 92.2

99.5 98.2 93.3

98.8 101.4 92.3 90.3 93.5

102.3

88.9 93.9

2010

2011

Q1 2012

Page 12: Financial results, Q1 2012 · 2015. 1. 28. · Highlights of Q1 2012 Profit of DKK 167 million before losses and writedowns Profit of DKK 82 million after losses and writedowns Non-life

12

Alm. Brand Bank - Financial highlights

B A N K I N G

Results:

Successful deposit campaign has increased

funding costs

Interest income positively impacted by bond yields

Negative value adjustments related hereto

Top line declined due to reduced loan portfolio

Loan book:

Loan reductions of DKK 0.3bn adjusted for losses

and writedowns

New methodology for writedowns was

implemented in Q4 2011

Key figures (DKKm) Q1

2012 2011

Interest receivable 200 226

Net interest and fee income 104 145

Value adjustments* 10 -28

Losses and writedowns* -85 -129

Pofit/loss before tax -90 -149

Profit before tax and excl.

losses and writedowns -5 -20

Interest margin 1.4% 1.9%

*Credit related value adjustments included under losses

and writedowns

12.6%

DKK

233m

Page 13: Financial results, Q1 2012 · 2015. 1. 28. · Highlights of Q1 2012 Profit of DKK 167 million before losses and writedowns Profit of DKK 82 million after losses and writedowns Non-life

13

Deposits and lending

B A N K I N G

Deposit campaign led to significant

increase in deposits

Continued reduction in loans and

advances

Deposit deficit nearly eliminated by

the end of Q1 2012

Deposit deficit

12.1 11.6 11.2 10.6 10.2

8.0 7.9 7.7 8.0

10.1

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2011 2012

DK

K b

illio

n

Loans and advances Deposits

4.1 3.7

3.5

2.6

0.1

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2011 2012

DK

K B

illio

n

Page 14: Financial results, Q1 2012 · 2015. 1. 28. · Highlights of Q1 2012 Profit of DKK 167 million before losses and writedowns Profit of DKK 82 million after losses and writedowns Non-life

14

B A N K I N G

Net interest and fee income

Interest income positively impacted

by investments in bonds in Q1 2012

compared to Q4 2011

Interest expenses down due to

repayment of funding offset by

expenses relating to new deposits

Margin is under pressure due to

Funding structure with

significant excess liquidity

invested at very low risk

226 221 222

198 200

120 125 131 130 128

39 35 28 30 32

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2011 2012

DK

K m

illio

n

Interest receivable Interest payable Net fees and commissions etc.

2.2% 2.5% 2.4%

2.2% 1.9%

1.7% 1.7%

1.3% 1.4%

0%

1%

1%

2%

2%

3%

3%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2010 2011 2012

Interest margin

Page 15: Financial results, Q1 2012 · 2015. 1. 28. · Highlights of Q1 2012 Profit of DKK 167 million before losses and writedowns Profit of DKK 82 million after losses and writedowns Non-life

15

Loan portfolio and credit losses

B A N K I N G

31.12 31.03 Share of FY Q1 Loss

DKK million 2011 2012 portfolio 2011 2012 ratio

Continuing portfolio 2,983 2,858 28.0% 105 10 0.3%

Lending to private customers 2,848 2,718 26.7% 104 10 0.4%

Other lending 135 140 1.4% 1 0 0.0%

Winding-up portfolio 7,059 6,797 66.7% 888 75 1.1%

Agriculture 1,038 1,039 10.2% 227 29 2.8%

Car finance 418 362 3.6% 2 -1 -0.3%

Commercial lending 1,613 1,554 15.2% 308 19 1.2%

Property development projects 431 418 4.1% 13 0 0.0%

Mortgage deed financing 405 322 3.2% 112 8 2.2%

Mortgage deeds 3,154 3,102 30.4% 226 20 0.6%

Bank packages etc. 0 0 - 1 0 -

Total - excl. reverse transactions 10,042 9,655 94.7% 994 85 0.9%

Reverse transactions including

inter-group transactions 175 374 3.7% 0 0 -

Total, group lending 10,217 10,029 98.4% 994 85 0.8%

Minority interests 176 168 1.6% 0 0 -

Total, pro rata 10,393 10,197 100.0% 994 85 0.8%

Losses and writedownsLoans

Page 16: Financial results, Q1 2012 · 2015. 1. 28. · Highlights of Q1 2012 Profit of DKK 167 million before losses and writedowns Profit of DKK 82 million after losses and writedowns Non-life

16

CAPITAL RESERVATION

DKK million

Gross

loans

Book

value

Accum.

writedowns

Required

capital

Total

reservation

Reservation/

gross loans

Total

reservation

Reservation/

gross loans

Continuing portfolio 3,025 2,858 167 268 435 14% 426 14%

Winding-up portfolio 9,212 6,797 2,415 980 3,395 37% 3,439 37%

Bank packages etc. - - 9 7 16 - 23 -

Total - excl reverse transactions 12,237 9,655 2,591 1,255 3,846 31% 3,888 31%

Reverse transactions and intra-group

transaction374 374 - 45 45 12% 28 16%

Total group 12,611 10,029 2,591 1,300 3,891 31% 3,916 31%

31.03.2012 31.12.2011

Capital reservations

B A N K I N G

Approximately 75% of the required capital relates to the winding up portfolio

Higher requirement in winding-up relative to continuing portfolio

Total reservation on winding-up portfolio is 37% of gross loan book

Largely due to significant accumulated writedowns

The total reservation has been stable in the first quarter

Page 17: Financial results, Q1 2012 · 2015. 1. 28. · Highlights of Q1 2012 Profit of DKK 167 million before losses and writedowns Profit of DKK 82 million after losses and writedowns Non-life

17

Loan book reductions Q1 2012 - excl. losses and writedowns

B A N K I N G

Loan book reduced by DKK 0.3bn in Q1

Expected total loan book reduction for

FY 2012 is DKK 0.8bn

Additional funding to existing agricultural

customers for necessary investments

Car financing is repaid as expected

Assets in “Mortgage deed financing” are

moved to “Mortgage deeds” as the bank

takes over collateral

Net mortgage deeds declined by DKK 107

million

Equal to approx. 10% p.a. repayment

302

103

115

57

40

13

75

32

-30

-199

Continuing portfolio

Agriculture

Car finance

Commercial lending

Property development projects

Mortgage deed financing

Mortgage deeds

Total, loan book

Reversals and intra-group transactions

Total, group

DKK million

Page 18: Financial results, Q1 2012 · 2015. 1. 28. · Highlights of Q1 2012 Profit of DKK 167 million before losses and writedowns Profit of DKK 82 million after losses and writedowns Non-life

18

DKK 2.0bn prepaid in March

DKK 5.8bn will be repaid during

rest of 2012

Funding developing according

to plan

B A N K I N G

Funding - 31 March 2012

Deposits DKK 10,098m

Other debt DKK 367m

Interbank funding

DKK 3,757m

Issued bonds DKK 4,000m

Supplementary capital

DKK 400m

Hybrid capital DKK 1,031m

5,757

2,100

956

200 175

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

DK

K m

illi

on

Interbank funding Issued bonds Supplementary capital Hybrid capital

Page 19: Financial results, Q1 2012 · 2015. 1. 28. · Highlights of Q1 2012 Profit of DKK 167 million before losses and writedowns Profit of DKK 82 million after losses and writedowns Non-life

19

B A N K I N G

Individual solvency need in the bank

Credit risk further reduced

Market risk increase by higher

interest risk as a result of new

deposits

Solvency need reduced to 15.0%

The solvency ratio exceeded the

solvency need by 3.5%-point

1,807 1,766 1,606

1,808

1,443 1,342

262 237

402

269

259 349

69 68 68

120

101 101

2,138 2,071 2,076

2,197

1,803 1,792

14.9% 14.7%

14.9%

17.2%

15.4%

15.0%

12,0%

14,0%

16,0%

18,0%

0

1.000

2.000

Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012

Credit risk Market risk Operational and other risks Solvency need

Page 20: Financial results, Q1 2012 · 2015. 1. 28. · Highlights of Q1 2012 Profit of DKK 167 million before losses and writedowns Profit of DKK 82 million after losses and writedowns Non-life

20

Life insurance - Financial highlights and key ratios

Profit before tax of DKK 19 million in line with

expectations

Positive financial markets resulted in a good

investment result

2.1% (8.4% p.a.) on policyholders’ funds

Collective bonus potential of 6.0%

Still positive risk and expense results

Growth of 25 % in pension contributions

L I F E I N S U R A N C E

12.4%

DKK

DKK million Q1

2011 2012

Return on investment allocated to

equity

-3 2

Result of portfolios without bonus

entitlement

2 -1

Risk premium 3 3

Share of expense and risk results 17 19

Calculated return on equity 19 23

Reversed from/transferred to shadow

account

-1 -4

Profit before tax 18 19

Shadow account balance 1 9

Page 21: Financial results, Q1 2012 · 2015. 1. 28. · Highlights of Q1 2012 Profit of DKK 167 million before losses and writedowns Profit of DKK 82 million after losses and writedowns Non-life

21

L I F E I N S U R A N C E

Premium income

Total pension contributions up by

25%

Premiums in Alm. Brand Liv og

Pension up by 28%

Driven by one-time payments in

connection with transfer of

pension schemes of new

customers

Strong growth in investment schemes

in the bank

Up by 15%

Note: Investment schemes are reported in the banking segments

719 724

179 229

186

357

65

75

905

1,081

244

304

2010 2011 2011 2012

FY Q1

DKK million

Life insurance Investment schemes

Page 22: Financial results, Q1 2012 · 2015. 1. 28. · Highlights of Q1 2012 Profit of DKK 167 million before losses and writedowns Profit of DKK 82 million after losses and writedowns Non-life

22

L I F E I N S U R A N C E

Results

DKK million Q1 2011 Q1 2012

Return on investment allocated to equity -3 2

Result of portfolios without bonus entitlement 2 -1

Risk premium 3 3

Share of expense and risk results 17 19

Calculated return on equity 19 23

Reversed from/transferred to shadow account -1 -4

Profit before tax 18 19

Shadow account balance 1 9

Return on investments impacted by

the generally more positive marked

development in Q1 2012

Stable expense and risk result

Transfer to shadows account

related to one contribution group

Page 23: Financial results, Q1 2012 · 2015. 1. 28. · Highlights of Q1 2012 Profit of DKK 167 million before losses and writedowns Profit of DKK 82 million after losses and writedowns Non-life

23

Capital model

DKKm Capital base

31 Dec 2011

Capital base

31 Mar 2012

Consolidated equity 4,206 4,287

Tax assets -758 -739

Supplementary capital 1,753 1,753

Total capital base for the group 5,201 5,301

Statutory capital requirement for the group, end

of period 3,376 3,256

Excess relative to statutory capital

requirement 1.825 2,045

Internal capital target 5,041 5,082

G R O U P

Page 24: Financial results, Q1 2012 · 2015. 1. 28. · Highlights of Q1 2012 Profit of DKK 167 million before losses and writedowns Profit of DKK 82 million after losses and writedowns Non-life

24

Outlook for the group for 2012

G R O U P

Profit of DKK 475 million before tax

Combined ratio expected to

be around 91.5 Expense ratio of around 16.5 Growth of approx. 1%

Higher expected expenses

reflect focus on securing new business

Profit of DKK 90 million before tax

All contribution groups

expected to receive full risk allowances

Total premiums expected to grow moderately

Expected negative impact from the Danish tax reform limiting the incentive to pay into pension schemes

Competitive rate on policyholders’ savings and lower costs

Pre-tax profit of DKK 10 million before losses and writedowns

Improvement relative to 2011 expected from

Minimising value adjustments

Improving banking operations

Reduction in excess liquidity due to repayment of funding

Loan portfolio expected to decrease by approx. DKK 0.8 billion in 2012 net of losses and writedowns

Non-life insurance Life insurance Banking

Forecast for a full-year consolidated pre-tax profit of DKK 525 million

before losses and writedowns in the bank

Page 25: Financial results, Q1 2012 · 2015. 1. 28. · Highlights of Q1 2012 Profit of DKK 167 million before losses and writedowns Profit of DKK 82 million after losses and writedowns Non-life

25

Alm. Brand

Highlights

Very strong quarter for non-life insurance

High growth in pension contributions

Weak core earnings in bank

Funding developing according to plan

Losses and writedowns are still at a high level

Outlook for 2012 increased by DKK 75 million to DKK 525

million before losses and writedowns

G R O U P

Page 26: Financial results, Q1 2012 · 2015. 1. 28. · Highlights of Q1 2012 Profit of DKK 167 million before losses and writedowns Profit of DKK 82 million after losses and writedowns Non-life

26

Disclaimer

“The statements made in this presentation are based on current expectations, estimates

and projections made by management. All statements about future financial performance

are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially

from those set forth in or implied by the statements. All statements about future financial

performance made in this presentation are solely based on information known at the time

of the preparation of the last published financial report, and the company assumes no

obligation to update these statements, whether as a result of new information, future

events, or otherwise.”

G R O U P

Page 27: Financial results, Q1 2012 · 2015. 1. 28. · Highlights of Q1 2012 Profit of DKK 167 million before losses and writedowns Profit of DKK 82 million after losses and writedowns Non-life

27

Alm. Brand

Financial results, Q1 2012