Financial results, Q1 2012 · 2015. 1. 28. · Highlights of Q1 2012 Profit of DKK 167 million...
Transcript of Financial results, Q1 2012 · 2015. 1. 28. · Highlights of Q1 2012 Profit of DKK 167 million...
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Alm. Brand
Financial results, Q1 2012
Webcast 16 May 2012
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Highlights of Q1 2012
Profit of DKK 167 million before losses and writedowns
Profit of DKK 82 million after losses and writedowns
Non-life insurance:
Strong CR of 88.9
Few weather-related claims, improved underlying business and positive run-off
results
Still strong expense ratio of 15.7
Banking:
Higher funding costs due to successful deposit campaign
Loan book reduced with DKK 0.3 billion adjusted for losses and writedowns
Losses and writedowns of DKK 85 million.
Life insurance:
25% growth in pension contributions. Good and stable expense and risk result
Good investment results - collective bonus potential of 6.0%
Outlook for 2012
Increased to DKK 525 million from DKK 450 million before losses and writedowns.
Combined ratio around 91.5
G R O U P
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Non-life insurance - Financial highlights in brief Results
Result before tax of DKK164 million
Premiums increased by 2.3 %
Increased costs for July 2011 cloudburst but
covered by reinsurance
Generally few weather-related claims
Combined ratio
Combined ratio improved to 88.9 from 97.4
Combined ratio impacted by
Weather-related claims
Underlying business
Major claims
Reinsurance recoveries
÷ Reinsurance costs
N O N - L I F E I N S U R A N C E
64.5%
DKK
1,195m
Key figures (DKKm) Q1
2012 2011
Gross premiums 1,195 1,168
Investment income 5 14
Claims expenses -971 -880
Expenses -187 -182
Reinsurance 97 -76
Technical result 139 44
Investments return after technical
interest 25 -7
Profit before tax 164 37
Combined ratio 88.9 97.4
Underlying
combined ratio 81.8 84.4
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Premium income
N O N - L I F E I N S U R A N C E
Trend in premium income
Premiums up by 2.3 % on Q1 2011
Private premiums up by 2.3%
Commercial premiums up by 2.4%
Increase primarily due to premium
increases
Customer outflow declined
2,507 2,504 2,540
617 631
2,207 2,258 2,232
551 564
4,714 4,762 4,772
1,168 1,195
2009 2010 2011 Q1 2011 Q1 2012
Gro
ss p
rem
ium
s (
DK
K m
illio
n)
Private Commercial
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Impact on financial results
N O N - L I F E I N S U R A N C E
Combined ratio Increased gross claims ratio
Higher costs for July 2011
cloudburst
Covered by reinsurance
Claims ratio otherwise impacted by
Premium increases
Lower claims frequency on
underlying business
Weather-related expenses
Very little snow
No significant storms
Offset by cold February
Run-off result primarily related to
workers’ compensation
67.9 73.5
101.3
75.3 81.3
20.8 19.9
19.5
15.6 15.7 4.5
4.8
4.3
6.5
-8.1
93.2 98.2
125.1
97.4 88.9
Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012
Gross claims ratio Gross expense ratio Net reinsurance ratio
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Combined ratio - Development from Q1 2011 to Q1 2012
N O N - L I F E I N S U R A N C E
Catastrophe programme reinstated due
to July 2011 cloudburst costs
Expenses in line with last year
Positive run-off result related primarily to
workers’ compensation
Significantly lower weather-related claims
compared to normal
Lower claims frequency as a result of
higher deductibles partly offset by
increased average claim
Increase in average claim lower than
premium increase
Premiums increased
97.4%
88.9%
0.1%
0.9%
0.0%
0.4%
-3.0%
-0.1%
-3.7%
-0.7%
-2.3%
Combined ratio Q1 2011
Reinsurance
Reinstatement of reinsurance
Expenses
Other
Run-off
Major claims
Weather-related claims
Change in claims
Premiums
Combined ratio Q1 2012
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Positive trend in underlying business
N O N - L I F E I N S U R A N C E
Underlying combined ratio continues to
develop positively
Increased premiums
New terms and conditions
Higher deductibles
Procurement
Cost reductions
Fewer claims compared with the same
period last year
Limited snowfall caused motor claims
to decline by 14%
Burglaries dropped by 5%
Good development in private building
÷ Commercial buildings still
underperforming
81.8 81.6
87.4 87.8
84.4
81.8
Q1 2007 Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
Q1 2011 Q1 2012
Number (index) Avg. claim (index) Claims (index)
Note: Excluding workers compensation
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Positive trend in major claims
Note: Major claims are defined as claims in excess of DKK 1 million
N O N - L I F E I N S U R A N C E
Major claims continue to be lower
than expected
Major claims in line with Q1 2011
Fewer claims but higher
average claim
Preventive measures still in focus
Risk-reduction team
Fixed-sum insurance
478
288 277
413 373
321 331 284
363
494 449
355 336
84
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q1 2012
DK
K m
illio
n
Claims (2011-DKK) Expected claims
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2008 2009 2010 2011 Q1 2011 Q1 2012
Number (index) Avg. claim (index) Claims (index)
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271 199 61 213 80 90 133 121 227 103 157 497 187 35
Anatol 3,100 Erwin 1,048
July cloudburst 785
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q1 2012
Claims (2011-DKK) Expected claims
Weather-related claims
N O N - L I F E I N S U R A N C E
Note: Figures are before reinsurance recoveries
DK
K m
illi
on
Very few weather-related claims in Q1 2012
Very little snow
No significant storms
Cold February resulted in frost claims
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Expense ratio exceeding target
N O N - L I F E I N S U R A N C E
The target range is unchanged at 16-17
Guidance for 2012 expense ratio of around 16.5
Expense ratio in Q1 2012 was 15.7
Achieved through an ambitious cost reduction programme focusing on
Better back-office system / IT
development and processes
Rethinking the distribution
strategy
Staff reductions
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
Q1
H1
Q1
-Q3
FY
Q1
H1
Q1
-Q3
FY
Q1
H1
Q1
-Q3
FY
Q1
2009 2010 2011 2012
11
2008
2009
Note: Combined and expense ratios are stated at group level.
N O N - L I F E I N S U R A N C E
Alm. Brand among top performers - Peer group comparison
Exp
en
se
rati
o
Co
mb
ined
rati
o
19.0
14.7
17.1
20.0 18.5
14.9
17.2
20.4
17.6
15.4 17.0
20.3
15.9 15.7 16.8
21.3
15.7 16.8
96.5
82.4 88.2
97.5 98.0 91.1 92.2
99.5 98.2 93.3
98.8 101.4 92.3 90.3 93.5
102.3
88.9 93.9
2010
2011
Q1 2012
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Alm. Brand Bank - Financial highlights
B A N K I N G
Results:
Successful deposit campaign has increased
funding costs
Interest income positively impacted by bond yields
Negative value adjustments related hereto
Top line declined due to reduced loan portfolio
Loan book:
Loan reductions of DKK 0.3bn adjusted for losses
and writedowns
New methodology for writedowns was
implemented in Q4 2011
Key figures (DKKm) Q1
2012 2011
Interest receivable 200 226
Net interest and fee income 104 145
Value adjustments* 10 -28
Losses and writedowns* -85 -129
Pofit/loss before tax -90 -149
Profit before tax and excl.
losses and writedowns -5 -20
Interest margin 1.4% 1.9%
*Credit related value adjustments included under losses
and writedowns
12.6%
DKK
233m
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Deposits and lending
B A N K I N G
Deposit campaign led to significant
increase in deposits
Continued reduction in loans and
advances
Deposit deficit nearly eliminated by
the end of Q1 2012
Deposit deficit
12.1 11.6 11.2 10.6 10.2
8.0 7.9 7.7 8.0
10.1
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2011 2012
DK
K b
illio
n
Loans and advances Deposits
4.1 3.7
3.5
2.6
0.1
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2011 2012
DK
K B
illio
n
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B A N K I N G
Net interest and fee income
Interest income positively impacted
by investments in bonds in Q1 2012
compared to Q4 2011
Interest expenses down due to
repayment of funding offset by
expenses relating to new deposits
Margin is under pressure due to
Funding structure with
significant excess liquidity
invested at very low risk
226 221 222
198 200
120 125 131 130 128
39 35 28 30 32
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2011 2012
DK
K m
illio
n
Interest receivable Interest payable Net fees and commissions etc.
2.2% 2.5% 2.4%
2.2% 1.9%
1.7% 1.7%
1.3% 1.4%
0%
1%
1%
2%
2%
3%
3%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2010 2011 2012
Interest margin
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Loan portfolio and credit losses
B A N K I N G
31.12 31.03 Share of FY Q1 Loss
DKK million 2011 2012 portfolio 2011 2012 ratio
Continuing portfolio 2,983 2,858 28.0% 105 10 0.3%
Lending to private customers 2,848 2,718 26.7% 104 10 0.4%
Other lending 135 140 1.4% 1 0 0.0%
Winding-up portfolio 7,059 6,797 66.7% 888 75 1.1%
Agriculture 1,038 1,039 10.2% 227 29 2.8%
Car finance 418 362 3.6% 2 -1 -0.3%
Commercial lending 1,613 1,554 15.2% 308 19 1.2%
Property development projects 431 418 4.1% 13 0 0.0%
Mortgage deed financing 405 322 3.2% 112 8 2.2%
Mortgage deeds 3,154 3,102 30.4% 226 20 0.6%
Bank packages etc. 0 0 - 1 0 -
Total - excl. reverse transactions 10,042 9,655 94.7% 994 85 0.9%
Reverse transactions including
inter-group transactions 175 374 3.7% 0 0 -
Total, group lending 10,217 10,029 98.4% 994 85 0.8%
Minority interests 176 168 1.6% 0 0 -
Total, pro rata 10,393 10,197 100.0% 994 85 0.8%
Losses and writedownsLoans
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CAPITAL RESERVATION
DKK million
Gross
loans
Book
value
Accum.
writedowns
Required
capital
Total
reservation
Reservation/
gross loans
Total
reservation
Reservation/
gross loans
Continuing portfolio 3,025 2,858 167 268 435 14% 426 14%
Winding-up portfolio 9,212 6,797 2,415 980 3,395 37% 3,439 37%
Bank packages etc. - - 9 7 16 - 23 -
Total - excl reverse transactions 12,237 9,655 2,591 1,255 3,846 31% 3,888 31%
Reverse transactions and intra-group
transaction374 374 - 45 45 12% 28 16%
Total group 12,611 10,029 2,591 1,300 3,891 31% 3,916 31%
31.03.2012 31.12.2011
Capital reservations
B A N K I N G
Approximately 75% of the required capital relates to the winding up portfolio
Higher requirement in winding-up relative to continuing portfolio
Total reservation on winding-up portfolio is 37% of gross loan book
Largely due to significant accumulated writedowns
The total reservation has been stable in the first quarter
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Loan book reductions Q1 2012 - excl. losses and writedowns
B A N K I N G
Loan book reduced by DKK 0.3bn in Q1
Expected total loan book reduction for
FY 2012 is DKK 0.8bn
Additional funding to existing agricultural
customers for necessary investments
Car financing is repaid as expected
Assets in “Mortgage deed financing” are
moved to “Mortgage deeds” as the bank
takes over collateral
Net mortgage deeds declined by DKK 107
million
Equal to approx. 10% p.a. repayment
302
103
115
57
40
13
75
32
-30
-199
Continuing portfolio
Agriculture
Car finance
Commercial lending
Property development projects
Mortgage deed financing
Mortgage deeds
Total, loan book
Reversals and intra-group transactions
Total, group
DKK million
18
DKK 2.0bn prepaid in March
DKK 5.8bn will be repaid during
rest of 2012
Funding developing according
to plan
B A N K I N G
Funding - 31 March 2012
Deposits DKK 10,098m
Other debt DKK 367m
Interbank funding
DKK 3,757m
Issued bonds DKK 4,000m
Supplementary capital
DKK 400m
Hybrid capital DKK 1,031m
5,757
2,100
956
200 175
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
DK
K m
illi
on
Interbank funding Issued bonds Supplementary capital Hybrid capital
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B A N K I N G
Individual solvency need in the bank
Credit risk further reduced
Market risk increase by higher
interest risk as a result of new
deposits
Solvency need reduced to 15.0%
The solvency ratio exceeded the
solvency need by 3.5%-point
1,807 1,766 1,606
1,808
1,443 1,342
262 237
402
269
259 349
69 68 68
120
101 101
2,138 2,071 2,076
2,197
1,803 1,792
14.9% 14.7%
14.9%
17.2%
15.4%
15.0%
12,0%
14,0%
16,0%
18,0%
0
1.000
2.000
Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012
Credit risk Market risk Operational and other risks Solvency need
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Life insurance - Financial highlights and key ratios
Profit before tax of DKK 19 million in line with
expectations
Positive financial markets resulted in a good
investment result
2.1% (8.4% p.a.) on policyholders’ funds
Collective bonus potential of 6.0%
Still positive risk and expense results
Growth of 25 % in pension contributions
L I F E I N S U R A N C E
12.4%
DKK
DKK million Q1
2011 2012
Return on investment allocated to
equity
-3 2
Result of portfolios without bonus
entitlement
2 -1
Risk premium 3 3
Share of expense and risk results 17 19
Calculated return on equity 19 23
Reversed from/transferred to shadow
account
-1 -4
Profit before tax 18 19
Shadow account balance 1 9
21
L I F E I N S U R A N C E
Premium income
Total pension contributions up by
25%
Premiums in Alm. Brand Liv og
Pension up by 28%
Driven by one-time payments in
connection with transfer of
pension schemes of new
customers
Strong growth in investment schemes
in the bank
Up by 15%
Note: Investment schemes are reported in the banking segments
719 724
179 229
186
357
65
75
905
1,081
244
304
2010 2011 2011 2012
FY Q1
DKK million
Life insurance Investment schemes
22
L I F E I N S U R A N C E
Results
DKK million Q1 2011 Q1 2012
Return on investment allocated to equity -3 2
Result of portfolios without bonus entitlement 2 -1
Risk premium 3 3
Share of expense and risk results 17 19
Calculated return on equity 19 23
Reversed from/transferred to shadow account -1 -4
Profit before tax 18 19
Shadow account balance 1 9
Return on investments impacted by
the generally more positive marked
development in Q1 2012
Stable expense and risk result
Transfer to shadows account
related to one contribution group
23
Capital model
DKKm Capital base
31 Dec 2011
Capital base
31 Mar 2012
Consolidated equity 4,206 4,287
Tax assets -758 -739
Supplementary capital 1,753 1,753
Total capital base for the group 5,201 5,301
Statutory capital requirement for the group, end
of period 3,376 3,256
Excess relative to statutory capital
requirement 1.825 2,045
Internal capital target 5,041 5,082
G R O U P
24
Outlook for the group for 2012
G R O U P
Profit of DKK 475 million before tax
Combined ratio expected to
be around 91.5 Expense ratio of around 16.5 Growth of approx. 1%
Higher expected expenses
reflect focus on securing new business
Profit of DKK 90 million before tax
All contribution groups
expected to receive full risk allowances
Total premiums expected to grow moderately
Expected negative impact from the Danish tax reform limiting the incentive to pay into pension schemes
Competitive rate on policyholders’ savings and lower costs
Pre-tax profit of DKK 10 million before losses and writedowns
Improvement relative to 2011 expected from
Minimising value adjustments
Improving banking operations
Reduction in excess liquidity due to repayment of funding
Loan portfolio expected to decrease by approx. DKK 0.8 billion in 2012 net of losses and writedowns
Non-life insurance Life insurance Banking
Forecast for a full-year consolidated pre-tax profit of DKK 525 million
before losses and writedowns in the bank
25
Alm. Brand
Highlights
Very strong quarter for non-life insurance
High growth in pension contributions
Weak core earnings in bank
Funding developing according to plan
Losses and writedowns are still at a high level
Outlook for 2012 increased by DKK 75 million to DKK 525
million before losses and writedowns
G R O U P
26
Disclaimer
“The statements made in this presentation are based on current expectations, estimates
and projections made by management. All statements about future financial performance
are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially
from those set forth in or implied by the statements. All statements about future financial
performance made in this presentation are solely based on information known at the time
of the preparation of the last published financial report, and the company assumes no
obligation to update these statements, whether as a result of new information, future
events, or otherwise.”
G R O U P
27
Alm. Brand
Financial results, Q1 2012