Financial projections for investment presentations
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Transcript of Financial projections for investment presentations
Financial Projections for Presentations
Heather Onsto,
Today’s Speakers
• Senior Controller Consultant, Venture Advisors
• CPA
• Prior Controller, Accoun>ng Manager at several area startups/high growth companies
• BS, UVM; MSA/MBA Northeastern
• Venture Partner, former Director of Small Business with LaunchCapital
• Interim CEO of the Nanny Caddy, a LaunchCapital porMolio company
• Over 20 years experience in small business finance
• BA, Wofford College; MBA, Dartmouth
Heather Shanahan
Financial Projec>ons: WIFM?
Today’s presenta>on will focus on the how and why of building and pitching financial projec>ons
• How: Crea>ng financial projec>ons using a spreadsheet and some common accoun>ng knowledge shows you where to focus your resources
• Why: Crea>ng financial projec>ons shows investors that you have carefully considered all financial implica>ons
Financial Projec>ons: 3 Objec>ves
1. Force discipline and objec>vity through crea>ng a methodical approach
2. Demonstrate thorough understanding of your company’s business model
3. Provide answers to “what if?”
Building Projec>ons: Yeah, but… I’ve heard that I don’t really have to build a business plan with financial projec8ons because no one actually reads it…
• Business plans with financial projec>ons are necessary…
– Bo,oms-‐up vs. Top-‐down
– HINT: You're trying to talk yourself out of this! • Financial projec>ons are a key por>on of the due diligence
most investors perform
FOR YOU
Investors are more interested in the assump1ons made when building financial projec1ons, not the exact bo;om line
Building Projec>ons: Pulp fic>on? Projec8ons are just imaginary anyway, so what does it maCer what I put in?
A common mistake is to have illogical numbers in the projec>ons – All numbers should be >ed to your growth assump>ons
• Ex 1: If sales cycle is 6 weeks, should there be sales in month 1?
• Ex 2: If business is seasonal, should growth be smooth in every month?
– All numbers should >e with a rough cash flow statement • Either a separate tab or at the bo,om of the P&L
Projec1ons that have not been planned properly make investors ques1on your understanding of your business model
Building Projec>ons: What if…
Scenario planning is just worst-‐case (out of business), expected (what I really think will happen), and best-‐case (Google buys us for a bazillion dollars), right?
Focus on YOUR key success metrics to drive scenario planning – Sales trac>on – Gross margins – Incremental headcount
Fundraise amount range should encompass most likely scenarios to avoid expensive “Bridge” or “A-‐1” rounds
More on Scenario Planning…
Worst-‐case scenarios should answer “What happens if there is no outside capital?” – if the answer isn't 'grow slower', is this a pipe dream?
Best-‐case scenarios should answer “What does this business look like if everything goes right?” – if the answer isn’t a huge financial win for your investor, is this a pipe
dream?
Most-‐likely scenarios should answer “What does this business look like following comparable companies’ growth paths?” – if the answer isn’t able to be funded with the current “ask”, is this a
pipe dream?
Goldilocks got it right: examine all op1ons!
Building Projec>ons: Common Terms
• Revenue/Sales • COGS • Gross Profit/Margin • Opera>ng expenses • EBITDA • Cash flow breakeven • Working capital
• Burn rate
Building Projec>ons: How it works
• Fundamental components of model: • Profit & Loss • Balance Sheet • Cash Flow
• Above schedules should be presented by month
• Have an assump8ons page: this allows flexibility – change assump>ons for different growth scenarios
• Assump>ons are the backbone of your projec>ons, so you should know them COLD
Excel is your friend, but be careful with cell references – it’s easy to make a mistake!
Building Projec>ons: Let’s get started…
Es>mate 1% of $100 bazillion market
share JUST
KIDDING!
Projec>ons: Start with Revenue Take a “Bo,oms Up” approach
• Ex: We have tracked X unique visitors to our website and with an industry averages 2% conversion rate, sales will be Y.
• Ex: Survey revealed customers are willing to pay $X for a product with Y features.
• Ex: Q4 sales were $X. With a customer acquisi>on cost of $Y, we expect a 20% growth rate as a result of marke>ng efforts
• All revenue projec>ons must be backed up with a sales plan
Econ 101: revenue = price * volume. Knowing which element is driving your company’s revenue is a key metric.
Include details of relevant expenses/ac>vi>es related to:
Selling Marke>ng
Engineering & Development COGS General & Administra>ve
Determine headcount first then build expenses around that
Projec>ons: Add in expenses
Projec>ons: Add in expenses
• Payroll expenses – Salaries and payroll taxes – Other compensa>on (bonuses, commission) – Fringe benefits – Variable expenses (T&E’s)
• Legal and Accoun>ng • Insurance
Projec>ons: Other considera>ons
• You'll need space one day that isn't free • It is illegal to hire someone and not pay them • Equity + cash = total compensa>on
• As equity values increase, cash compensa>on should increase as the less expensive long-‐run pay op>on (this means you are WINNING!)
• Research how much things cost – don’t guess! • Call your iden>fied suppliers for costs, terms of materials and development costs
Projec>ons: final checks
• Look for gradual (realis>c) P&L improvement over >me
• EBITDA excludes expenses that are not core to a company’s opera>ons; allows for comparisons without regard to capital structure.
• EBITDA measures the progression of the business but cash flow is ul>mately what the investors look for
• Consider reasonableness of when you get to cash flow breakeven and the total cash you are asking for. Does it make sense?
Pitching projec>ons: What’s the “ask”?
Financial projec>ons need to >e to the amount of the raise – Fundraising takes >me, so 12-‐18 months of cash per raise – Iden>fy milestones to be hit and cost of each one
– The sum of those milestone costs is the raise amount – The "cushion" in the raise is not X%, it's the cost difference in the most likely scenarios
The secret to life is “t” – “t” is the variable for “>me” in mathema>cal equa>ons… and >me in projec>ons is everything
Pitching Projec>ons: Rookie moves
– CTRL+C+P en>re excel model into a slide
– Using anything less than 18-‐point font – Li,ering clipart from 1995… or 2013
– Sta>ng projec>ons to the $.01 – Failing to summarize projec>ons
– Using ANY of the following phrases: • “conserva>vely es>mated…” • “at only X% of the market…”
• “with no compe>>on…”
– Forgexng to explain what the amount you raise achieves
– Relying on a short-‐term exit at a high mul>ple
Pitching Projec>ons: Expert moves
• Know your audience – The earlier you are in the development of your business, the more interested in your assump>ons the investors are…so know you’ll be discussing them in detail. Painstaking detail.
• Be rich, not king – Does a new hire cut costs or increase revenue? This will drive the >ming of a new hire.
• Don’t forget that headcount is a step-‐func>on • What is B/E expecta>on for a new hire?
– Good metric for HC is sales/employee – these numbers are benchmarked and available with some research.
Bad Example Revenue
Custom runners $ 480,000 624,000 811,200 1,054,560 1,370,928 Standard runners 60,000 78,000 101,400 131,820 171,366
Total Revenue $ 540,000 $ 702,000 $ 912,600 $ 1,186,380 $ 1,542,294
COGS Custom runners $ 120,000 $ 156,000 $ 202,800 $ 263,640 $ 342,732 Standard runners 39,000 50,700 65,910 85,683 111,388
Total COGS $ 159,000 $ 206,700 $ 268,710 $ 349,323 $ 454,120
GROSS PROFIT $ 381,000 $ 495,300 $ 643,890 $ 837,057 $ 1,088,174 Expenses
Selling Expenses Commission $ 36,000 $ 46,800 $ 60,840 $ 79,092 $ 102,820 Marke>ng/Adver>sing 50,000 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000
Research and Development 40,000 50,000 62,500 78,125 97,656 General and Administra>ve Expenses
Office Rent 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 Insurance 9,600 9,600 9,600 9,600 9,600 Office U>li>es 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 Supplies 18,000 18,000 18,000 18,000 18,000 Salaries 120,000 120,000 120,000 120,000 120,000 Benefits 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 Miscellaneous 21,600 21,600 21,600 21,600 21,600
Total Expenses $ 360,000 $ 380,800 $ 457,340 $ 541,217 $ 634,476
EBITDA $ 21,000 $ 114,500 $ 186,550 $ 295,840 $ 453,698
Good Example -‐ Financial Projec>ons
Stream 2
Licensing
Stream 1
Equipment Lease space Salaries
22
Good Example – “Breakeven 2015”
Raise $750K
Raise $3 MM