Financial modeling in Excel for Business Analysts and Consultants
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Financial Modeling in Excel for Business Analysts and Consultants
Step by step practical guide
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Introduction
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In this presentation I will show you how to create and analyze
financial model in Excel
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We will use real life example of company producing hand-made products from clay
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I will show you the steps that will enable you to get from estimation of separate cost and balance sheet position into 3 financial statements
Sales M&E
External services
Taxes & Payments
Payroll
Taxes
Other
CAPEX
Depreciation – 6 groups
Working Capital
Debt
Equity changes
Profit & Loss
Balance Sheet
Cash Flow
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What we will talk about in this presentation is organized in the following sections
Profit and Loss modelling
Capex and Depreciation Working Capital
Debt
Analyses Cash flow modeling
Balance sheet modeling Equity
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What I will show in this presentation is a part of extensive on-line course where I show you in details how to do it in Excel and you can download the models in Excel
Financial Modeling for Business Analysts and Consultants
$45 $15
Click to check my course
![Page 8: Financial modeling in Excel for Business Analysts and Consultants](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051404/58f9a710760da3da068b5664/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
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Before we start remember there are 2 types of models that you will be building. In this presentation we will talk only about financial models
Financial Model Business model
Mainly done for budgeting and valuation Mainly done managing business, searching for opportunities
Financial models look very similar
Business models are specific to the company, the industry and the business model
Used heavily for external purposes: talk with the Supervisor Board, banks, future investors, auditors
Used heavily for internal purposes: planning, looking for opportunities, analyzing performance
Generates financial statements: P&L, BS, CF
Is driven by many KPIs and quantitative elements. Shows in-depth relation between KPIs
Has some KPIs and quantitative elements
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If you want to learn more about on-line business models go to the following presentation
Business models Practical guide for startups and entrepreneurs
presentation
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Let’s start with the first section
Profit and Loss modelling
Capex and Depreciation Working Capital
Debt
Analyses Cash flow modeling
Balance sheet modeling Equity
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Profit and Loss modelling
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We will start with modelling the cost position of profit and loss statement. Once we are done with it we will link it to profit an loss
Sales M&E
External services
Taxes & Payments
Payroll
Taxes
Other
CAPEX
Depreciation – 6 groups
Working Capital
Debt
Equity changes
Profit & Loss
Balance Sheet
Cash Flow
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We will use real life example of company producing hand-made products from clay
Ceramic dishes Ceramic chimneys
Ceramic tubes Ceramic pots
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Sales Estimation
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For every category of sales you should have estimation of quantity sold as well as the average price. You also should have some assumption on growth (both of price as well as quantity sold)
Ceramic dishes sales
# of dishes sold at the beginning
Average price at the beginning
% growth in volume in next years
% growth of average price in next years
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On the basis of this assumption you should create a separate sheet with sales forecast
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Materials and Energy Estimation
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We estimate separately materials and energy in the sheet M&E. First we divide into Fixed and Variable. Variables we estimate as a percentage of sales
Materials & Energy
Materials
Energy
Fixed
Variable Sales
% of sales
Fixed
Variable Sales
% of sales
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On the basis of this assumption you should create a separate sheet with Material and Energy estimation
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The data on sales value and volume should be fed from Sales sheet to M&E sheet (Material and Energy estimation)
Sales M&E Sales Value
Sales Volume
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Payroll and social security Costs
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Now we move to the Payroll. We divide it into Head Office and Production
Payroll Costs
Head Office
Direct Production
# of employees
Average salary
% growth of salary
# of employees
Average salary
% growth of salary
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Social security are usually estimated in relation to payroll costs. In our case we assume 27% of estimated previously costs
Social security costs Payroll Costs = 27% x
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On the basis of this assumption you should create a separate sheet For Payroll and social securities sheet
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External services
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We now estimate External services. We divided them into fixed and variable part. Variable is estimated as a percentage of Sales
External Services
Fixed
Variable
Bought in Country
Imported
Sales
% Sales
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On the basis of this assumption you should create a separate sheet with External services estimation
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The data on sales value should be fed from Sales sheet to External services sheet
Sales External services
Sales Value
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Capex and depreciation
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When it comes to assets the problem is that they have 3 different components that you have to track. On top of that every asset has to be tracked separately
Depreciation Gross book value Net book value
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We get the net book value by deducting from gross book value the sum of all depreciation ever done
Sum of all Depreciation Gross book value Net book value = _
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We first divide the fixed assets into 6 groups
Fixed Assets
Land
Transportation
Intangibles
Buildings
Equipment and Machinery
Others
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Every group has its own sheet where we estimate the gross value, depreciation on net value. Below example for Intangibles. As you can see this has to be done by years in which the asset was bought
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After we are done with each and other type of asset we can summarize the date in the sheet FA Summary
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Below you can see how the data flows from the sheets where we have estimation for each and every group of assets to FA Summary and later on to Balance sheet (BS) and Profit & Loss account (P&L)
CAPEX
FA Intangibles
FA Machinery
FA Transp eqmt
FA Other
FA Summary
P&L
BS
FA Buildings
Depreciation
Net book value
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More details you can find in my on-line course where you can you will see how to do it in Excel and you can download the models in Excel
Financial Modeling for Business Analysts and Consultants
$45 $15
Click to check my course
![Page 37: Financial modeling in Excel for Business Analysts and Consultants](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051404/58f9a710760da3da068b5664/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
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Taxes & Payments
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Companies pay taxes and payments (especially local ones) that go into costs. We assumed them to be fixed
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Other costs and revenues
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We estimate other costs and revenues as a percentage of sales
Other costs by type
Sales
% of Sales
Other operating costs
Sales
% of Sales
Other operating revenues
Sales
% of Sales
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On the basis of this assumption you should create a separate sheet for Other costs and revenues
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Profit & Loss statement
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We get the Profit and Loss sheet projection in a separate sheet by feeding in the data from other sheets
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Let’s go to next section
Profit and Loss modelling
Capex and Depreciation Working Capital
Debt
Analyses Cash flow modeling
Balance sheet modeling Equity
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Working Capital
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Working capital consists of 4 major groups of components
Inventory
Working Capital
Materials
WIP
Goods
Finished Products
Receivables
Payments in advance for deliveries
Trade receivables
Other receivables
Receivables resulting from taxes, subsidies
Short term accruals
Liabilities
Trade liabilities
Prepayments for deliveries
Liabilities resulting from taxes, charges
Liabilities resulting from salaries
Accruals
Cash and equivalents
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We will draw data from other profit and loss sheets and on the basis of the data we will calculate the working capital positions that in turn will be fed into Balance and sheet as assets or liabilities
P&L
Sales
External Services
Other
Working Capital
BS - Assets
BS - Liabilities
M&E
Assets
Liabilities
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When it comes to assets the problem is that they have 3 different components that you have to track. On top of that every asset has to be tracked separately
Turnover rotation in days
Basis i.e. sales / operating costs /
materials
Position of Working capital i.e. inventory
/ receivables = x 365 ÷
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On the basis of this assumption you should create a separate sheet for working capital
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More details you can find in my on-line course where you can you will see how to do it in Excel and you can download the models in Excel
Financial Modeling for Business Analysts and Consultants
$45 $15
Click to check my course
![Page 51: Financial modeling in Excel for Business Analysts and Consultants](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051404/58f9a710760da3da068b5664/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
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Let’s go to next section
Profit and Loss modelling
Capex and Depreciation Working Capital
Debt
Analyses Cash flow modeling
Balance sheet modeling Equity
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Debt
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When it comes to debt we have 2 loans. For the balance sheet statement we have to divide it into short term and long term part
Debt
Old loan
New Loan
Short-term part
Long-term part
Short-term part
% Sales
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In a separate sheet we estimate the opening balance and the ending balance of each and one of the loans (on the basis of assumed payment schedule). This allows also to estimate interest paid on the loans
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Let’s go to next section
Profit and Loss modelling
Capex and Depreciation Working Capital
Debt
Analyses Cash flow modeling
Balance sheet modeling Equity
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Equity
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In a separate sheet we model all the relations with the owners like dividend policies , contribution to be paid, etc.
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Let’s go to next section
Profit and Loss modelling
Capex and Depreciation Working Capital
Debt
Analyses Cash flow modeling
Balance sheet modeling Equity
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Balance sheet
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Once we have the Assets modeled in FA summary as well as the most of the position of the Current Assets in Working Capital we get everything together
Balance sheet
Total Assets
Total Liabilities
Fixed assets
Current Assets
Equity
Liabilities
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For the categories we get the date from the separate sheets
Balance sheet
Total Assets
Total Liabilities
Fixed assets
Current Assets
Equity
Liabilities
FA Summary
Working Cap
SC
Working Cap
Debt
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The only thing we are missing is the cash. We did it on purpose and there is a nice way to estimate the cash position and still the model be consistent
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You have to get Assets equal to Liabilities in Balance Sheet. You achieve it by not modelling the cash but by calculating it as a difference between Liabilities and all other assets (except for Cash)
FA Summary BS – Assets (w/o Cash)
Working Cap
Debt
P&L (Profit)
Working Cap
BS – Liabilities
SC (Equity)
Cash
=
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You have to get Assets equal to Liabilities in Balance Sheet. You achieve it by not modelling the cash but by calculating it as a difference between Liabilities and all other assets (except for Cash)
Cash = BS – Liabilities BS – Assets (w/o Cash) -
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We get the Balance sheet projection in a separate sheet
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Let’s go to next section
Profit and Loss modelling
Capex and Depreciation Working Capital
Debt
Analyses Cash flow modeling
Balance sheet modeling Equity
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Cash Flow
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In Cash flow you try to divide the CF into 4 parts
Investment CF
CF
Operating activities CF
Financial CF
CF to / from shareholders
CF
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We will try to get from Net profit to the Cash position
Net profit
Change in Cash and cash equivalents
CF
Change in Cash and cash equivalents BS =
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We will estimate CF on 4 different levels
FA Summary
CF – Operating Activities
P&L
Deprecation Difference between Interest earned and paid
BS
Change in inventories, receivables Change in provisions, short-term
liabilities, prepayments and accruals Other adjustments
CF – before financial activities
Disposal of intangible and tangible fixed assets
CAPEX
Capital expenditure
CF – Free cash flows to equity
Change in bank and other loans
P&L
Interest paid and earned
CF – Free cash flows to firm SC
Shareholder-related payments and contributions
Gross dividend paid
Investment CF
Financial CF
CF related to shareholders
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We get the Cash flow projection in a separate sheet
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Let’s go to final section
Profit and Loss modelling
Capex and Depreciation Working Capital
Debt
Analyses Cash flow modeling
Balance sheet modeling Equity
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Analyses
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So we managed to get integrated model that we can play with and see what can we do further with our company
P&L
Sales
External Services
Other
CF BS
FA Summary M&E
Debt
Work Cap
SC
Payroll
FA Summary
Taxes & Payments
CAPEX
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Now you can finally analyze a lot of things using this model
Estimate the value of the business
Check what change in sales can do to the
cash position
Check what change in cost can do to
profitability of the business
Play with financing structure
Estimate the boundaries of the
business
Use it as a tool during due diligence
Use the model to get financing for acquiring the
business
Play with the dividend policy
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More details you can find in my on-line course where you can you will see how to do it in Excel and you can download the models in Excel
Financial Modeling for Business Analysts and Consultants
$45 $15
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You can also find useful some tips on Excel
Essential Excel for Business Analysts and Consultants
A practical guide
presentation
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Check also business modeling in Excel
Business models Practical guide for startups and entrepreneurs
presentation
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I recommend also looking at some techniques to improve your business. Click on the cover below to go to the presentation
How to become world class analyst
A practical guide
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….and how to perform market research
Market research Practical guide for startups and entrepreneurs
presentation
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Check my extensive presentation on productivity hacks to see how you can me 10x more productive
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If you need more detailed version on productivity hacks you can check our course on productivity hacks
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Management Consulting Productivity hacks
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Check my presentation on restaurant business model to understand it properly
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Check my presentation on on-line models to understand them properly
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For more check also my on-line course
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Check my presentation on starting and running consulting company
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There is an interesting summary of ways to test cheaply businesses
MVP – how to test your business idea without building the
product A practical guide
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