FINANCIAL MODEL IN EXCEL - Enterprise Startup · As a result of using the financial model in excel...
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FINANCIAL MODEL IN EXCEL for SaaS Companies
Transcript of FINANCIAL MODEL IN EXCEL - Enterprise Startup · As a result of using the financial model in excel...
Financing needsKey performance
indicator Controlling SaaS metrics analysis Sensitivity analysis
Sales pipeline analysis Marketing costs analysis Revenue drivers analysisRecurring costs of service
analysis
IntroductionFinancial model in excel is a tool used to prepare such analysis like: financial forecast, SaaS company valuation, financial analysis, sales
pipeline analysis, profitability analysis, marketing costs analysis, revenue drivers analysis, recurring costs of service analysis, sensitivity
analysis and financing needs.
Financial model helps you receive funds for your business from: seed capital funds, venture capital funds and individual investors.
As a result of using the financial model in excel you receive key figures which helps you to make a business decisions. You receive such
information like for example: SaaS company value, investment profitability, financing needs, rate of return, time to profit, effect of churn on
CLTV, ACS reduction from economies of scale.
Financial forecast Financial analysis SaaS company valuation Investment profitability Profitability analysis
111 111
1111 1111
time
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
11 000
revenues costs
Today
Forecast
Base for making business decisions.
Historical data - Impossible to change.
CONTROLLING
Projected EBITDA 2,7 mEUR
12 000
111 111
1111 1111
You designate expected financial results
Employees receive dedicated KPI, which lead to achieve projected financial statement.
Key Performance Indicators
Entrepreneur
Motivating system
111 111
1111 1111
Motivating system
Entrepreneur Information about KPI realization
Employee KPI*
164
152
* Av number of product sold by one person ** Corrected KPI based on internal / external benchmark nad expected financial results
Internal / external Benchmark
Corrected employee KPI**
164
164
Who controls the employee?
he himself
he himself
KPI realization
150
169
Bonus
No
Yes
Revenue EBITDA
0% 20%
100 120
0% 15%
100 115
0% 20%
100 120
0,00 -0,01
55 64 Quarter Cash Net (USD) Cash End (USD)
0,00 2% QI '1 -52 734 -52 734
2 102 QII '1 -44 180 -96 914
0% 25% QIII '1 -34 865 -131 779
20 125 QIV '1 -24 169 -155 947
0% 10% QI '2 -11 318 -167 266
20 110 QII '2 4 657 -162 609
0% 20% QIII '2 24 986 -137 623
20 120 QIV '2 51 236 -86 387
0,0 0,2 QI '3 85 413 -974
20 21 QII '3 105 556 104 582
0,0 0,1 QIII '3 152 734 257 316
20 28 QIV '3 214 703 472 019
0,0 0,0
25 50
0,0 0,1
55 111,0
0,0 0,1
25 51
0% 0%
20 50
0% 0%
20 50
Financial modelO
pe
rati
ng
Co
sts
Group
Mar
keti
ng
Co
sts
158,5
Basic account of all accounts % 11,0%
Conversion Rate
Premium account of all accounts % 5,0%
%
Fee per Basic account
Fee per Premium account
Media budget
Cost per action
Other Marketing Costs
USD
General & Administrative
Expenses
Unit
USD
61,0
Customer Churn Rate (monthly) % 5,0%
69 560878 398
669 1263 2 415 585
2
USD
10 500
4 500
14 250
0,60
%
Financing needs
in USD
change
QI '1
1
QI '1
15 000
change
Q/Q
0,55
17 550
3 600
Result in USDYear
-155 947216 352
Payroll
Assumptions
USD/click
USD
USD
-170 309
Rec
urr
ing
Co
sts
of
Serv
ice
Re
ven
ue
Dri
vers
Oth
erO
ther
1 987 772
SaaS Company Value in USD
% 20,0%Valuation WACC
5,5%
4,0%
Other Recurring Costs of Service USD
Engineering & Support USD
USD
USD
Organic growth of new visitors
(monthly)
Average Variable Cost of Service
per Customers
0,0
20 1 987 772% 20,0%Valuation WACC
Valuation
SaaS Company Value
USD
1 987 772
Target GroupPerson
52 425
1 195 435
Customers in XII '3
Target Group
1 195 435
0,12% 0,26% 0,41% 0,59% 0,81% 1,06%
1,37% 1,75%
2,22% 2,79%
3,50%
4,39%
0,00%
0,50%
1,00%
1,50%
2,00%
2,50%
3,00%
3,50%
4,00%
4,50%
5,00%
QI '1 QII '1 QIII '1 QIV '1 QI '2 QII '2 QIII '2 QIV '2 QI '3 QII '3 QIII '3 QIV '3
%
Penetration rate
52 425
1 195 435
0
200 000
400 000
600 000
800 000
1 000 000
1 200 000
1 400 000
Customers in XII '3
4,2 4,5
4,9 5,2
5,6 6,0
6,4 6,9
7,3 7,9
8,4 9,0
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
8,0
9,0
10,0
QI '1 QII '1 QIII '1 QIV '1 QI '2 QII '2 QIII '2 QIV '2 QI '3 QII '3 QIII '3 QIV '3
LTV:CAC ratio (recommended >3)
The ResultsRevenue 14 443 38 222 65 658 98 030 136 915 184 266 242 515 314 703 404 646 517 144 658 240 835 556
Costs 67 176 82 402 100 523 122 198 148 233 179 609 217 529 263 467 319 233 387 056 469 680 570 490
EBITDA -52 734 -44 180 -34 865 -24 169 -11 318 4 657 24 986 51 236 85 413 130 088 188 560 265 065
check 134 352,9 164 803,9 201 045,1 244 396,2 296 465,9 359 218,4 435 058,2 526 933,4 638 465,9 774 111,6 939 359,5 #########
67
17
6
82
40
2
10
0 5
23
12
2 1
98
14
8 2
33
17
9 6
09
21
7 5
29
26
3 4
67
31
9 2
33
38
7 0
56
46
9 6
80
57
0 4
90
14
44
3
38
22
2
65
65
8
98
03
0
13
6 9
15
18
4 2
66
24
2 5
15
31
4 7
03
40
4 6
46
51
7 1
44
65
8 2
40
83
5 5
56
0
100 000
200 000
300 000
400 000
500 000
600 000
700 000
800 000
900 000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
USD
Costs Revenue
-52 734 -44 180 -34 865 -24 169 -11 318
4 657 24 986
51 236 85 413
130 088
188 560
265 065
-100 000
-50 000
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
USD
EBITDA
EBIT
DA
in U
SD
Re
ven
ue
/ C
ost
s in
USD
Revenue Drivers
Sales pipeline [%]
1 304 806,28
81 824,72
6%
100%
Customers 0% 5% Other customers
Visitors 0% 1% Basic accounts
1% 0% 0% Premium accounts
0% 6% 0 Customers
5%
Fee [USD]
Fee per Basic account 20,3
Fee per Premium account 52,8
Churn [%]
Potential 100%
CR - Customer Churn Rate (monthly) 5%
4,9 5,0 5,0 5,1 5,2 5,2 5,3 5,4
5,5 5,5
5,6 5,7
1 466 3 101
4 955 7 105
9 648 12 699
16 400
20 924
26 487
33 356
41 864
52 425
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
8,0
9,0
10,0
QI '1 QII '1 QIII '1 QIV '1 QI '2 QII '2 QIII '2 QIV '2 QI '3 QII '3 QIII '3 QIV '3
Cu
sto
me
rs
USD
MRRpC - Monthly Recurring Revenue per Customer Customers
6,27%
100%
Customers
Visitors
5,17%
0,36%
0,74%
6,27%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
Customers
Basic accounts
Premium accounts
Other customers
97,6 99,0
100,5 102,0
103,4 104,9
106,3 107,8
109,3 110,7
112,2 113,7
85,0
90,0
95,0
100,0
105,0
110,0
115,0
QI '1 QII '1 QIII '1 QIV '1 QI '2 QII '2 QIII '2 QIV '2 QI '3 QII '3 QIII '3 QIV '3
USD
LTV -Customer Lifetime Value simple = MRR / CR
20,3
52,8
Fee per Basicaccount
Fee perPremiumaccount
100%
5%
Potential
CR - CustomerChurn Rate(monthly)
Operating Costs
34,9
29,3
26,8 25,0
23,6 22,5
21,4 20,4
19,6
18,8 18,0 17,3
1 466 3 101
4 955 7 105
9 648 12 699
16 400
20 924
26 487
33 356
41 864
52 425
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
35,0
40,0
QI '1 QII '1 QIII '1 QIV '1 QI '2 QII '2 QIII '2 QIV '2 QI '3 QII '3 QIII '3 QIV '3
Cu
sto
me
rs
USD
Operating Costs per Customer Customers
36 150 42 503 49 994 58 832 69 264 81 582 96 134 113 331 133 662 157 711 186 166
219 849
16 776 22 799 30 009 38 742
49 420 62 569
78 845 99 076
124 298
155 818
195 282
244 762
14 250 17 100 20 520
24 624 29 549
35 459
42 550
51 060
61 272
73 527
88 232
105 879
0
100 000
200 000
300 000
400 000
500 000
600 000
QI '1 QII '1 QIII '1 QIV '1 QI '2 QII '2 QIII '2 QIV '2 QI '3 QII '3 QIII '3 QIV '3
USD
MCC -Total Marketing Costs RCE -Recurring Cost of Service General & Administrative Expenses
DATA VISUALIZATION
(monthly)
Effect of Conversion Rate
Analysis - Revenue Drivers
Customer Lifetime Value (USD/Customer)
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
80 000
90 000
100 000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
Cu
sto
me
r
Time (months)
Customers New visitors
97
,6
97
,6
97
,6
99
,0
99
,0
99
,0
10
0,5
10
0,5
10
0,5
10
2,0
10
2,0
10
2,0
10
3,4
10
3,4
10
3,4
10
4,9
10
4,9
10
4,9
10
6,3
10
6,3
10
6,3
10
7,8
10
7,8
10
7,8
10
9,3
10
9,3
10
9,3
11
0,7
11
0,7
11
0,7
11
2,2
11
2,2
11
2,2
11
3,7
11
3,7
11
3,7
85,00
90,00
95,00
100,00
105,00
110,00
115,00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
Rev
en
ue
(U
SD)
/ C
ust
om
er
Time (months)
Analysis - Economies of Scale
ACS Reduction from Economies of Scale
Time-to-Profit is Simple Break-Even
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
USD
Time (months)
Av Costs
Time-to-Profit
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Co
st (
USD
) /
Cu
sto
me
r
Customers
Variable Cost
Average Cost of Service
5% 7% 9% 11% 13% 15% 17% 19% 21% 23% 25% 27% 29% 31%
5,280487805 5,280487805 5,280487805 5,280487805 5,280487805 5,280487805 5,280487805 5,280487805 5,280487805 5,280487805 5,280487805 5,280487805 5,280487805 5,280487805
105,6097561 75,43554007 58,67208672 48,00443459 40,61913696 35,20325203 31,06169297 27,79204108 25,14518002 22,95864263 21,12195122 19,55736224 18,20857864 17,03383163
Av Monthly Recurring Revenue = 5,28USD
Analysis - Effect of Churn Rate
Viral Customer Growth Trumps SaaS Churn
Dramatic Effect of Churn on CLTV
0
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
Cu
sto
me
rs
Time (months)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
5% 7% 9% 11% 13% 15% 17% 19% 21% 23% 25% 27% 29% 31%
USD
Churn rate (%)
Av Monthly Recurring Revenue = 5,28USD
BenchmarksCustomers MRRpC MRR ARR ARRpE Churn CAC LTV Team size Capital Raised
person $ $ $ $ % $ $ person $
Cladwell 12 6 087 70 000 840 000 140 000 5% 17 120 7 6 140 000 Consumer
Select 9 10 556 95 000 1 140 000 87 692 2% 154 920 6 13 87 692 Consumers
FuelPanda 100 60 6 000 72 000 36 000 4% 5 500 100 2 36 000 Consumers
Lead Genius 200 3 500 700 000 8 400 000 168 000 3% 15 000 100 000 7 50 168 000 Enterprise
RJ Metrics 400 833 333 333 3 999 996 40 000 3% 5 000 21 667 4 100 40 000 Enterprise
Bounce Exchange 250 10 000 2 500 000 30 000 000 200 000 3 000 100 000 33 150 Enterprise
welovenumbers 50 1 000 50 000 600 000 60 000 10% 1 000 10 000 10 10 60 000 EntreprenUSD Market
Seamless Docs 1 412 1 416 2 000 000 24 000 000 960 000 1% 141 600 25 7 700 000 Goverment
Boomerang (Baydin) 29 545 11 325 000 3 900 000 300 000 7% 157 13 400 000 Mid Market
Yesware 1 667 500 833 333 9 999 996 125 000 80 33 000 000 Mid Market
SocialHub.io 116 598 69 333 831 996 46 222 1% 2 047 11 129 5 18 46 222 Mid Market
Metadata.io 13 2 692 35 000 420 000 52 500 3 000 24 000 8 8 Mid Market
DaPulse 5 72 000 360 000 4 320 000 116 757 2% 600 3 600 6 37 116 757 Mid Market
Cirrus Insights 100 000 6 640 000 7 680 000 85 333 85 750 9 90 - Mid Market to Enterprise
PandaDoc 10 000 30 300 000 3 600 000 55 385 1% 4 000 65 9 000 000 Mid Market to Enterprise
Inspire Beats.com 700 1 899 1 329 300 15 951 600 759 600 6% 40 32 283 807 21 759 600 Mid Market to Enterprise
Datanyze 500 1 000 500 000 6 000 000 100 000 1% 9 000 60 100 000 Mid Market to Enterprise
GetAmbassador.com 300 1 067 320 000 3 840 000 89 302 1% 5 000 80 000 16 43 89 302 Mid Market to Enterprise
MatterMark 500 550 275 000 3 300 000 70 213 1% 20 000 25 000 1 47 70 213 Mid Market to Enterprise
Vytmn 85 1 200 102 000 1 224 000 136 000 4% 3 000 30 000 10 9 136 000 Mid Market to Enterprise
Brandkit.io 5 620 3 100 37 200 12 400 3 000 14 880 5 3 Mid Market to Enterprise
NurseVersity.com 10 11 000 110 000 1 320 000 264 000 5% 12 220 18 5 264 000 Nurses
EnterCastle.com 500 62 31 000 372 000 37 200 1% 200 4 176 21 10 37 200 Real Estate
ParkBench 215 312 67 000 804 000 100 500 5% 400 7 000 18 8 100 500 Real Estate
ClickFunnels 10 000 120 1 200 000 14 400 000 960 000 4% 3 000 15 1 000 000 Small Business
Aweber 120 000 20 2 400 000 28 800 000 300 000 4% 100 500 5 96 Small Business
Latergramme 3 500 14 50 000 600 000 54 545 5% 290 11 1 200 000 Small Business
Kit CRM 2 000 19 38 000 456 000 50 667 4% 21 475 23 9 1 000 000 Small Business to Mid Market
Contactually 11 667 60 700 000 8 400 000 150 000 4% 1 500 56 13 830 000 Small Business to Mid Market
AdEspresso 1 500 100 150 000 1 800 000 120 000 7% 1 000 15 1 800 000 Small Business to Mid Market
Moz 23 117 011 2 660 824 31 929 888 159 649 7% 110 1 755 16 200 159 649 Small Business to Mid Market
Unbounce 11 90 750 1 008 865 12 106 380 95 326 5% 424 1 180 3 127 95 326 Small Business to Mid Market
Buffer 53 15 015 790 162 9 481 944 115 633 5% 50 299 6 82 115 633 Small Business to Mid Market
BatchBook 10 42 000 420 000 5 040 000 336 000 5% 500 840 2 15 336 000 Small Business to Mid Market
Mindmeister.com 30 7 333 220 000 2 640 000 146 667 5% 30 120 4 18 146 667 Small Business to Mid Market
WebinarNinja 2 115 000 218 500 2 622 000 187 286 7% 3 1 643 548 14 187 286 Small Business to Mid Market
Maestro Conference 1 90 000 90 000 1 080 000 72 000 30% 10 350 35 15 72 000 Small Business to Mid Market
Hubstaff 2 34 375 81 125 973 500 64 900 4% 92 686 7 15 64 900 Small Business to Mid Market
Prospect.io 400 43 17 000 204 000 68 000 6% 50 750 15 3 68 000 Small Business to Mid Market
PromoRepublic 600 10 6 000 72 000 5 143 8% 100 125 1 14 5 143 Small Business to Mid Market
Fileboard 800 2 125 1 700 000 20 400 000 816 000 3% 300 50 000 167 25 816 000 Small Business to Mid Market
Average 7 249 15 634 556 216 6 674 598 188 876 5% 2 192 17 347 60 39 1 979 678
Startup ( '3) 52 425 6 297 925 3 575 098 5% 13 114 9
Dictionary
Revenue
MRRpC The amount of subscription revenue owed by a customer over a fixed time period, usually measured monthly (MRR), quarterly (QRR), or annually (ARR).
MRR The amount of subscription revenue owed over a month.
ARR Annualized Run Rate = MRR x 12ARR is annual run-rate of recurring revenue from the current installed base.
ARRpE Annualized Run Rate = MRR x 12ARR owed by a customer over a year.
Churn Percentage rate of customer cancellations over time, usually on an annual basis. Also, the probability that a single customer will cancel during a specific time period.
LTV The economic value of a customer over its lifetime.
Costs
CAC
ACS
Other
WACC
The one-time cost of all marketing and sales activities plus all physical infrastructure and systems required to motivate a customer to purchase, including fully loaded labor costs, quoted as an average
unit cost per new customer.
The recurring cost of all engineering, support, account management, customer service, and billing activities plus all physical infrastructure and systems required to maintain a current customer,
including fully loaded labor costs, quoted as an average unit cost per current customer.
The Weighted Average Cost of Capital is commonly referred to as the firm’s cost of capital. The WACC represents the minimum return that a company must earn on an existing asset base to satisfy its
owners, and other providers of capital.
Company SpaceLTV:CAC
ratio
Order financial model in excel to receive benchmarks.
