Financial Forecast Fiscal Years 2019-2024 f¢  Overview...

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Transcript of Financial Forecast Fiscal Years 2019-2024 f¢  Overview...

  • 1

    Monday, February 11, 2019

    Financial Forecast

    Fiscal Years 2019-2024 Policy 4:10

  • Overview

    • Financial Forecast • Operating & Non-Operating Funds

    • Revenue and Expenditures

    • Assumptions • EAV, Property Taxes, CPI, Proration,

    Pensions

    • Evidence Based Funding

    • Future Activities

    2

  • 3

    Operating Funds Forecast

    FORECAST

    Operating Funds - Projection Analysis

    Budget

    FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024

    REVENUE

    Local 282,917,954 293,658,377 301,695,499 309,755,396 317,706,371 325,785,844

    State 49,399,548 52,527,434 53,327,434 54,127,434 54,927,434 55,727,434

    Federal 9,920,737 10,920,737 10,920,737 10,920,737 10,920,737 10,920,737

    TOTAL REVENUE 342,238,239 357,106,548 365,943,670 374,803,567 383,554,542 392,434,015

    EXPENDITURES

    Salaries & benefits 258,150,007 268,055,130 277,370,602 287,173,041 294,953,771 303,000,685

    Other 82,177,539 86,276,933 84,920,926 85,686,168 85,476,716 85,793,074

    TOTAL EXPENDITURES 340,327,546 354,332,063 362,291,528 372,859,209 380,430,487 388,793,759

    EXCESS / DEFICIT 1,910,693 2,774,485 3,652,142 1,944,358 3,124,055 3,640,256

    Other Financing Sources (Uses) - - - - - - -

    EXCESS / DEFICIT & OTHER FINANCING 1,910,693 2,774,485 3,652,142 1,944,358 3,124,055 3,640,256

    Reductions

    Net excess (deficit) after reductions 1,910,693 2,774,485 3,652,142 1,944,358 3,124,055 3,640,256

    Beginning Fund Balance 109,572,941 111,483,634 114,258,119 117,910,261 119,854,619 122,978,675

    Ending Fund Balance 111,483,634 114,258,119 117,910,261 119,854,619 122,978,675 126,618,931

    Fund Balance as % of Revenues 32.57% 32.00% 32.22% 31.98% 32.06% 32.27%

    REVENUE / EXPENDITURE PROJECTIONS

    Forecast

    Indian Prairie CUSD 204

  • Non-Operating Forecast

    4

    Bond and Capital - Projection Analysis

    Budget

    FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022

    Revenue:

    Local 28,241,159 28,191,203 28,182,267 28,220,384

    State - - - -

    Federal - - - -

    Total 28,241,159 28,191,203 28,182,267 28,220,384

    Expenditures:

    Capital Outlay 2,000,000 2,000,000 2,000,000 2,000,000

    Bond and Interest 26,564,764 26,681,284 26,668,622 26,688,594

    Total 28,564,764 28,681,284 28,668,622 28,688,594

    Excess/(Deficit) (323,605) (490,081) (486,355) (468,210)

    Other financing sources 1,061,000 3,525,000 -

    Change in Fund Balance 737,395 3,034,919 (486,355) (468,210)

    Beginning Fund Balance 22,712,716 23,450,111 26,485,030 25,998,675

    Ending Fund Balance 23,450,111 26,485,030 25,998,675 25,530,465 Fund Balance as % of Revenues 83.0% 93.9% 92.3% 90.5%

    REVENUE / EXPENDITURE PROJECTIONS

    Forecast

  • 5

    Revenues

    Property Taxes 78%

    Other Local Revenue

    5%

    Evidence Based Funding

    11%

    Other State Revenue

    3%

    Federal Revenue 3%

    Budgeted Revenue Allocation by Source

  • 6

    Salaries 62%

    Employee Benefits 13%

    Purchased Services 14%

    Supplies and Materials

    4%

    Capital Outlay 2%

    Other Objects 3%

    Non-Capitalized Equipment

    2%

    Expenditure Allocation by Object

    Expenditures

  • • Salaries aligned to collective bargaining agreements

    • Health benefits increased by 6%

    • Special Education Out-of-District tuition increased by 7%

    • All consumables increased by Consumer Price Index

    • Operations and Maintenance Capital Outlay set at $7M

    • Transportation Purchased Services increased 8%

    • We continue to monitor the possibility of additional costs due to unfunded State mandates – Pension cost shift: Full cost shift = $14.8M

    – State minimum wage increases

    7

    Expenditures Cont.

  • 8

    New Property

    38.4 42.4

    56.9

    65.1

    60.4

    80.5

    55.0 55.0

    45.0 45.0 45.0

    0.0

    10.0

    20.0

    30.0

    40.0

    50.0

    60.0

    70.0

    80.0

    90.0

    2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

    M il li o

    n s

    New EAV Growth

  • 9

    Existing EAV Change

    0.18%

    3.55%

    4.71%

    3.57%

    3.05%

    3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50%

    0.00%

    0.50%

    1.00%

    1.50%

    2.00%

    2.50%

    3.00%

    3.50%

    4.00%

    4.50%

    5.00%

    2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

    Existing EAV % Change

  • Total EAV Change

    10

    1.13%

    4.80%

    6.08%

    4.77% 4.57% 4.50% 4.45%

    4.25% 4.22% 4.19%

    0.00%

    1.00%

    2.00%

    3.00%

    4.00%

    5.00%

    6.00%

    7.00%

    2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

    Total EAV % Change

  • Equalized Assessed Valuation

    11

    4,483.3 4,533.9 4,751.6

    5,040.6 5,281.1

    5,522.6 5,770.9

    6,027.9 6,283.9

    6,548.8 6,823.0

    0.0

    1,000.0

    2,000.0

    3,000.0

    4,000.0

    5,000.0

    6,000.0

    7,000.0

    8,000.0

    2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

    M il li o

    n s

    Total EAV Analysis

  • 12

    Consumer Price Index

    1.70%

    1.50%

    0.80% 0.70%

    2.10% 2.10%

    1.90% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%

    0.00%

    0.50%

    1.00%

    1.50%

    2.00%

    2.50%

    2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

    Consumer Price Index

  • 13

    Assumptions – Tax Rate

    2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

    Non-Capped Rate 0.6238 0.6192 0.5916 0.5431 0.5113 0.4935 0.4769 0.4572 0.4392 0.4137 0.3741

    Capped Rate 5.3320 5.4584 5.2589 5.0573 4.9854 4.9394 4.8631 4.7926 4.7231 4.6547 4.5872

    0.0000

    1.0000

    2.0000

    3.0000

    4.0000

    5.0000

    6.0000

    7.0000

    Total Tax Rate

    Capped Rate Non-Capped Rate

  • 14

    2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

    $0

    $5,000,000

    $10,000,000

    $15,000,000

    $20,000,000

    $25,000,000

    $30,000,000

    $35,000,000

    $40,000,000

    $45,000,000

    General State Aid / Evidence Based Funding

    Foundation Formula Evidence Based Funding

    Evidence Based Funding

  • 15

    Queen Bee ESD $183

    West Chicago HSD $361

    West Chicago ESD $473

    Naperville 203 $1

    IPSD 204 $28

    EBF New Tier $ Per Pupil

  • 16

    Evidence Based Funding - Elements

    Per Student

    12 Gifted

    13 Professional Development

    14 Instructional Materials

    15 Assessment

    16 Computer Technology

    17 Student Activities

    Central Services

    18 Maintenance and Oper

    19 Central Office

    20 Employee Benefits

    Diverse Learners

    21a Intervention (Poverty)

    21b Intervention (EL)

    22a Pupil Support (Poverty)

    22b Pupil Support (EL)

    23a Extended Day (Poverty)

    23b Extended Day (EL)

    24a Summer Sch (Poverty)

    24b Summer Sch (/EL)

    25 English Learners (EL)

    26a Special Ed Teachers

    26b Psychologist

    26c Special Ed Instructional Asst

    Core FTE

    1a Core Teachers K-3 (Low Income)

    1b Core Teachers K-3

    1c Core Teachers 4-8 (Low Income)

    1d Core Teachers 4-8

    2a Core Teachers 9-12 (Low Income)

    2b Core Teachers 9-12

    3 Specialist Teachers

    4 Instructional Facilitators

    5 Core Intervention Teachers

    6 Substitutes

    7a Core Guidance

    7b Nurse

    8 Supervisory Aides

    9a Librarian

    9b Library Aide/Media Tech

    10a Principal

    10b Asst Principal

    11 School Site Staff

  • 17

    Future Activities

    • Continue to monitor assumptions

    • Monitor State of Illinois funding, pension cost shift and minimum wage legislation

    • Determine EBF elements to implement

    • Continued Board of Education updates

    • Forecast transition to Tentative Budget early spring