Financial Analysis - Zhuzhou CSR Times Electric Co., Ltd. Provides and Integrates Train-borne...

19.03.2013

Ticker: Zhuzhou CSR Times Electric Co Benchmark:

Currency: Hong Kong: 3898, Currency: HKD HANG SENG INDEX (HSI)

Sector: Industrials Industry: Electrical Equipment Year:

Telephone 86-731-2849-8028 Revenue (M) Business Segments in HKD Sales (M) Geographic Segments in HKD Sales (M)

Website www.timeselectric.cn No of Employees Electrical Systems & Components 8527 China 8527

Address Times Road Shifeng District Zhuzhou Hunan, 412001 China

Share Price Performance in HKD

Price 22.90 1M Return -13.6%

52 Week High 30.25 6M Return 5.3%

52 Week Low 16.38 52 Wk Return 9.4%

52 Wk Beta 1.35 YTD Return -20.2%

Credit Ratings

Bloomberg -

S&P - Date - Outlook -

Moody's - Date - Outlook -

Fitch - Date - Outlook -

Valuation Ratios

12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E

P/E 14.1x 28.6x 32.8x 12.7x 20.5x 15.5x 12.9x

EV/EBIT 13.1x 24.2x 24.2x 10.7x - - -

EV/EBITDA 11.4x 21.1x 21.6x 9.7x 15.9x 12.4x 10.4x

P/S 2.8x 4.6x 4.8x 2.1x 3.0x 2.5x 2.1x

P/B 1.8x 4.0x 6.4x 2.8x 3.3x 2.8x 2.5x

Div Yield 2.8% 1.4% 1.2% 0.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5%

Profitability Ratios %

12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E

Gross Margin 37.1 36.3 36.9 34.4 33.4 34.5 35.1

EBITDA Margin 21.4 20.6 21.7 19.8 19.2 19.8 20.2

Operating Margin 18.6 17.9 19.4 17.9 15.7 15.8 16.3

Profit Margin 19.9 16.0 14.6 16.7 14.7 15.6 16.1

Return on Assets 10.8 11.1 13.7 15.1 10.8 12.1 13.3

Return on Equity 12.9 14.8 20.8 24.4 16.6 19.2 20.1

Leverage and Coverage Ratios

12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11

Current Ratio 4.2 2.5 2.2 2.2 Current Capitalization in HKD

Quick Ratio 2.8 1.7 1.4 1.5 Common Shares Outstanding (M) 1084.3

EBIT/Interest 411.2 74.4 98.4 38.8 Market Capitalization (M) 24829.5

Tot Debt/Capital 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 Cash and ST Investments (M) 1041.8

Tot Debt/Equity 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 Total Debt (M) 915.6

Eff Tax Rate % 14.8 14.4 13.9 14.0 Preferred Equity (M) 0.0

LT Investments in Affiliate Companies (M) 0.0

Investments (M) 155.5

Enterprise Value (M) 24858.6

Zhuzhou CSR Times Electric Co., Ltd. provides and integrates train-borne electrical

systems for the PRC Railway industry. The Company also develops, manufactures, and

sells train power converters, auxiliary power supply equipment and control systems for

trains for urban rail systems

3898 HK

8'527

4'936

Company Analysis - Overview

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Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |

www.timeselectric.cn

Zhuzhou CSR Times Electric Co

Target price in HKD

Date Buy Hold Sell Date Price Target Price Broker Analyst Recommendation Target Date

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Company Analysis - Analysts Ratings

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19.03.2013


Ownership Statistics Geographic Ownership Distribution

Shares Outstanding (M) 1084.3 United States 42.57%

Float 100.0% Britain 8.98%

Short Interest (M) Hong Kong 7.99%

Short Interest as % of Float Luxembourg 7.09%

Days to Cover Shorts South Korea 5.34%

Institutional Ownership 115.72% Unknown Country 4.63%

Retail Ownership -15.72% France 4.21%

Insider Ownership 0.00% Others 19.19%

Institutional Ownership Distribution

Investment Advisor 85.09%

Mutual Fund Manager 10.23%

Other 4.63%

Unclassified 0.05%

Pricing data is in HKD Others 0.01%

Top 20 Owners:

Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date Source Country

BLACKROCK 64'820'961 -875'000 1'484'400'007 14.21% 15.03.2013 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES

JP MORGAN 36'943'505 279'000 846'006'265 8.10% 26.02.2013 ULT-AGG

CAPITAL GROUP COMPAN 27'572'000 0 631'398'800 6.05% 20.12.2012 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES

RCM ASIA PACIFIC LTD 25'260'000 0 578'454'000 5.54% 05.11.2012 EXCH n/a

FMR LLC 24'895'000 22'000 570'095'500 5.46% 31.01.2013 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES

VANGUARD GROUP INC 22'747'425 146'000 520'916'033 4.99% 31.12.2012 MF-AGG UNITED STATES

VALUE PARTNERS GROUP 22'186'000 0 508'059'400 4.86% 08.02.2012 ULT-AGG HONG KONG

ARTIO GLOBAL MANAGEM 22'138'000 0 506'960'200 4.85% 25.11.2011 EXCH UNITED STATES

GE ASSET MANAGEMENT 21'622'630 0 495'158'227 4.74% 06.02.2012 EXCH UNITED STATES

DEUTSCHE BANK AG 21'288'639 0 487'509'833 4.67% 01.02.2013 EXCH GERMANY

BNP PARIBAS INVESTME 21'169'000 0 484'770'100 4.64% 29.01.2013 EXCH FRANCE

SCHRODER INVESTMENT 20'528'000 0 470'091'200 4.50% 21.02.2013 EXCH HONG KONG

JO HAMBRO CAPITAL MA 18'778'121 0 430'018'971 4.12% 19.09.2011 EXCH BRITAIN

SHINHAN BNP PARIBAS 13'203'000 6'011'000 302'348'700 2.89% 28.09.2012 MF-AGG SOUTH KOREA

MAPS INVESTMENT MANA 12'829'000 -363'000 293'784'100 2.81% 28.09.2012 MF-AGG SOUTH KOREA

ALLIANZ ASSET MANAGE 12'115'700 -1'070'000 277'449'530 2.66% 28.02.2013 ULT-AGG GERMANY

SCHRODER INVESTMENT 11'437'000 0 261'907'300 2.51% 21.02.2013 EXCH BRITAIN

BARING ASSET MANAGEM 10'269'000 0 235'160'100 2.25% 30.11.2012 MF-AGG IRELAND

DEUTSCHE BANK AG -9'785'150 0 -224'079'935 -2.15% 01.02.2013 Short GERMANY

BNP PARIBAS INV PART 5'711'000 -230'000 130'781'900 1.25% 31.12.2012 ULT-AGG FRANCE

Top 5 Insiders:

Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date Source

Company Analysis - Ownership

Ownership Type

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TOP 20 ALL



Financial information is in HKD (M)

Periodicity: 12/01 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E

Income Statement

Revenue 620 741 948 1'224 1'582 2'375 3'773 6'694 8'527 8'172 10'130 11'855

- Cost of Goods Sold 365 437 515 624 888 1'493 2'404 4'224 5'594

Gross Income 254 304 433 600 694 882 1'370 2'470 2'933 2'732 3'499 4'165

- Selling, General & Admin Expenses 181 210 229 377 420 489 766 1'268 1'407

(Research & Dev Costs) 25 23 21 94 65 51 98 211 0

Operating Income 83 122 216 281 330 442 676 1'296 1'526 1'281 1'600 1'933

- Interest Expense 8 10 13 14 3 1 9 13 39

- Foreign Exchange Losses (Gains) 4 -2 -4 1 20 -47 3 10 -3

- Net Non-Operating Losses (Gains) -19 -61 -1 -29 -48 -69 -44 134 -174

Pretax Income 91 174 208 295 354 557 708 1'139 1'663 1'395 1'816 2'216

- Income Tax Expense 0 2 1 0 -3 82 102 159 234

Income Before XO Items 91 172 207 295 356 474 606 980 1'430

- Extraordinary Loss Net of Tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

- Minority Interests -2 19 6 5 0 1 4 2 3

Diluted EPS Before XO Items 0.44 0.56 0.91 1.31

Net Income Adjusted* 289 356 473 602 978 1'427 1'197 1'582 1'913

EPS Adjusted 0.43 0.33 0.44 0.56 0.91 1.31 1.12 1.47 1.77

Dividends Per Share 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.15 0.17 0.22 0.35 0.00 0.35 0.47 0.58

Payout Ratio % 0.0 31.6 56.6 68.9 45.3 39.8 39.8 38.8 0.0 0.32 0.32 0.33

Total Shares Outstanding 1'084 1'084 1'084 1'084 1'084 1'084

Diluted Shares Outstanding 1'084 1'084 1'084 1'084 1'084

EBITDA 112 153 242 317 381 507 777 1'454 1'689 1'565 2'003 2'389

*Net income excludes extraordinary gains and losses and one-time charges.

Equivalent Estimates

Company Analysis - Financials I/IV

Fiscal Year


Periodicity: 12/01 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E

Balance Sheet

Total Current Assets 633.259574 955.011626 1095.13731 3358.3056 3072.39966 3308.02725 4201.81559 6099.40157 8060.56818

+ Cash & Near Cash Items 78 161 159 2'254 1'615 905 1'293 1'851 2'660

+ Short Term Investments 0 0 0 0 0 114 0 0 1

+ Accounts & Notes Receivable 352 502 546 650 812 1'180 1'628 1'997 2'676

+ Inventories 153 171 215 356 470 594 1'010 1'876 2'057

+ Other Current Assets 50 121 175 99 176 515 271 376 666

Total Long-Term Assets 362 256 328 417 823 1'426 1'932 2'172 2'609

+ Long Term Investments 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0

Gross Fixed Assets 407 329 428 550 921 1'440 2'014 2'287 2'634

Accumulated Depreciation 107 91 116 151 209 297 407 544 591

+ Net Fixed Assets 300 238 312 399 712 1'144 1'607 1'743 2'042

+ Other Long Term Assets 62 16 15 18 111 282 324 428 566

Total Current Liabilities 436 724 793 937 517 797 1'670 2'793 3'599

+ Accounts Payable 141 245 183 230 237 421 816 1'194 1'118

+ Short Term Borrowings 173 231 259 462 51 76 322 820 728

+ Other Short Term Liabilities 122 247 350 246 228 301 532 779 1'753

Total Long Term Liabilities 0 0 0 0 0 45 59 167 366

+ Long Term Borrowings 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 3 70

+ Other Long Term Borrowings 0 0 0 0 0 41 55 164 296

Total Liabilities 436 724 793 937 517 842 1'729 2'960 3'965

+ Long Preferred Equity 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

+ Minority Interest 6 19 25 1 5 21 111 114 149

+ Share Capital & APIC 0 0 643 1'081 1'159 1'231 1'231 1'279 3'425

+ Retained Earnings & Other Equity 553 468 -38 1'756 2'216 2'640 3'062 3'918 3'130

Total Shareholders Equity 559 487 630 2'839 3'379 3'892 4'405 5'311 6'704

Total Liabilities & Equity 996 1'211 1'423 3'776 3'896 4'734 6'133 8'271 10'669

Book Value Per Share 2.62 3.11 3.57 3.96 4.79 6.05 6.97 8.05 9.32

Tangible Book Value Per Share 2.60 3.10 3.43 3.81 4.64 5.93

Company Analysis - Financials II/IV


Periodicity: 12/01 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E

Cash Flows

Net Income 89 153 201 289 356 473 602 978 1'427 1'172 1'547 1'888

+ Depreciation & Amortization 29 31 27 36 51 65 101 159 163

+ Other Non-Cash Adjustments -12 -24 9 5 -3 14 15 271 -365

+ Changes in Non-Cash Capital -112 -25 -184 -135 -294 -205 -192 -542 -140

Cash From Operating Activities -6 136 52 195 111 347 526 866 1'085

+ Disposal of Fixed Assets 4 12 3 4 0 1 3 5 34

+ Capital Expenditures -79 -72 -96 -111 -333 -409 -514 -264 -424 -590 -568 -535

+ Increase in Investments 0 0 0 -2 0 0 0 0

+ Decrease in Investments 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

+ Other Investing Activities -13 -22 -17 -37 -951 261 372 -201 -373

Cash From Investing Activities -88 -82 -109 -147 -1'283 -147 -139 -460 -764

+ Dividends Paid 0 -2 -0 -163 -41 -176 -191 -243

+ Change in Short Term Borrowings 30 53 13 574

+ Increase in Long Term Borrowings 0 0 0 468 0 45 137 38 531

+ Decrease in Long Term Borrowings 0 0 0 -359 -377 -40 -29 -178 -295

+ Increase in Capital Stocks 0 0 0 2'034 0 0 0 0 0

+ Decrease in Capital Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

+ Other Financing Activities 8 -23 38 14 0 0 50 0 27

Cash From Financing Activities 38 29 51 1'994 -418 -171 -33 192 263

Net Changes in Cash -56 83 -6 2'043 -1'591 29 354 598 583

Free Cash Flow (CFO-CAPEX) -85 64 -43 84 -222 -62 12 602 660 663 968 1'311

Free Cash Flow To Firm -78 74 -30 98 -61 19 613 694

Free Cash Flow To Equity 129 -27 197 -599 -56 123 1'042 930

Free Cash Flow per Share -0.14 0.10 -0.07 0.12 -0.20 -0.06 0.01 0.56 0.61

Company Analysis - Financials III/IV


Periodicity: 12/01 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E

Ratio Analysis

Valuation Ratios

Price Earnings 24.5x 33.6x 14.1x 28.6x 32.8x 12.7x 20.5x 15.5x 12.9x

EV to EBIT 34.3x 31.8x 13.1x 24.2x 24.2x 10.7x

EV to EBITDA 30.5x 27.5x 11.4x 21.1x 21.6x 9.7x 15.9x 12.4x 10.4x

Price to Sales 5.9x 7.6x 2.8x 4.6x 4.8x 2.1x 3.0x 2.5x 2.1x

Price to Book 4.1x 3.7x 1.8x 4.0x 6.4x 2.8x 3.3x 2.8x 2.5x

Dividend Yield 0.3% 1.3% 2.8% 1.4% 1.2% 0.0% 1.5% 2.1% 2.5%

Profitability Ratios

Gross Margin 41.0% 41.0% 45.7% 49.0% 43.9% 37.1% 36.3% 36.9% 34.4% 33.4% 34.5% 35.1%

EBITDA Margin 18.1% 20.6% 25.6% 25.9% 24.1% 21.4% 20.6% 21.7% 19.8% 19.2% 19.8% 20.2%

Operating Margin 13.4% 16.4% 22.8% 23.0% 20.8% 18.6% 17.9% 19.4% 17.9% 15.7% 15.8% 16.3%

Profit Margin 15.0% 20.7% 21.2% 23.6% 22.5% 19.9% 16.0% 14.6% 16.7% 14.7% 15.6% 16.1%

Return on Assets 13.8% 15.3% 11.3% 9.3% 10.8% 11.1% 13.7% 15.1% 10.8% 12.1% 13.3%

Return on Equity 29.9% 37.5% 17.1% 11.6% 12.9% 14.8% 20.8% 24.4% 16.6% 19.2% 20.1%

Leverage & Coverage Ratios

Current Ratio 1.45 1.32 1.38 3.58 5.95 4.15 2.52 2.18 2.24

Quick Ratio 0.99 0.92 0.89 3.10 4.70 2.76 1.75 1.38 1.48

Interest Coverage Ratio (EBIT/I) 10.95 11.97 16.44 20.12 101.40 411.22 74.37 98.45 38.84

Tot Debt/Capital 0.24 0.32 0.29 0.14 0.02 0.02 0.07 0.13 0.11

Tot Debt/Equity 0.31 0.48 0.41 0.16 0.02 0.02 0.07 0.15 0.12

Others

Asset Turnover 0.67 0.72 0.48 0.41 0.54 0.70 0.94 0.90

Accounts Receivable Turnover 1.73 1.81 2.06 2.18 2.36 2.69 3.73 3.66

Accounts Payable Turnover 2.35 2.58 3.67 4.19 4.78 4.56 5.06 4.92

Inventory Turnover 2.69 2.67 2.20 2.17 2.77 3.00 2.97 2.85

Effective Tax Rate 0.0% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 14.8% 14.4% 13.9% 14.0%

Company Analysis - Financials IV/IV


ZHUZHOU CSR CHINA RAIL GR-HCHINA COM CONS-

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12/2011 12/2011 12/2011 12/2011 12/2011

30.25 4.98 8.43 9.54 5.24

02.01.2013 10.01.2013 23.01.2013 15.01.2013 05.02.2013

16.38 2.48 5.75 4.81 3.75

26.07.2012 30.03.2012 05.09.2012 30.03.2012 27.09.2012

4'094'776 16'696'500 12'782'070 7'563'500 22'807'447

22.90 3.88 6.69 7.26 4.34

-24.3% -22.1% -20.6% -23.9% -17.2%

39.8% 56.5% 16.3% 50.9% 15.7%

1'084.3 21'299.9 14'825.0 12'337.5 11'840.0

24'829 77'359 97'967 80'925 60'086

647.9 130'576.0 106'045.0 100'663.6 27'040.8

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121.0 9'330.0 10'739.0 970.4 5'526.3

2'158.8 60'314.0 45'170.0 80'520.6 23'104.3

19'911 183'800 154'418 75'858 78'613

LFY 7'079.1 442'216.0 294'281.0 443'319.3 79'517.0

LTM 7'079.1 418'599.0 280'093.0 417'448.9 81'803.7

CY+1 6'545.9 459'520.7 295'062.1 467'694.0 88'279.7

CY+2 8'114.9 502'956.7 329'738.3 508'533.0 102'099.0

LFY 1.9x 0.4x 0.6x 0.2x 1.0x

LTM 1.9x 0.4x 0.6x 0.2x 1.0x

CY+1 2.9x 0.3x 0.6x 0.2x 0.6x

CY+2 2.3x 0.3x 0.5x 0.2x 0.5x

LFY 1'402.0 18'977.0 21'465.0 21'822.9 7'310.0

LTM 1'402.0 19'609.0 22'252.0 22'290.2 7'352.0

CY+1 1'253.8 18'794.1 24'549.0 22'322.3 7'279.8

CY+2 1'604.2 20'996.6 27'984.5 24'268.5 8'766.7

LFY 9.7x 8.5x 7.7x 3.7x 11.0x

LTM 9.7x 8.2x 7.4x 3.6x 11.0x

CY+1 14.9x 8.2x 6.6x 3.8x 7.6x

CY+2 11.5x 7.5x 6.3x 3.7x 6.4x

LFY 1.09 0.32 0.76 0.68 0.33

LTM 1.09 0.31 0.72 0.61 0.31

CY+1 0.89 0.33 0.71 0.67 0.29

CY+2 1.18 0.38 0.79 0.74 0.35

LFY 16.8x 10.1x 7.4x 9.5x 14.2x

LTM 16.8x 9.8x 7.8x - -

CY+1 20.5x 9.4x 7.5x 8.7x 14.8x

CY+2 15.5x 8.3x 6.8x 7.9x 12.5x

1 Year 21.4% (3.1%) 7.9% (2.8%) 24.0%

5 Year 42.8% 23.0% 17.3% - 28.5%

1 Year 10.7% 20.9% 16.8% 51.3% 47.9%

5 Year 33.9% 26.7% 21.2% 34.4% 36.6%

LTM 19.8% 4.7% 7.9% 5.3% 9.0%

CY+1 19.2% 4.1% 8.3% 4.8% 8.2%

CY+2 19.8% 4.2% 8.5% 4.8% 8.6%

Total Debt / Equity % 12.2% 181.7% 151.0% 155.5% 119.9% FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE

Total Debt / Capital % 10.6% 61.7% 56.7% 60.5% 49.1% FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE

Total Debt / EBITDA 0.462x 7.676x 5.938x 4.627x 3.136x FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE

Net Debt / EBITDA -1.078x 4.897x 3.353x 1.024x 1.478x FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE

EBITDA / Int. Expense 42.973x 2.989x 4.776x 5.926x 6.888x FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE

S&P LT Credit Rating - BBB+ - - - FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE

S&P LT Credit Rating Date - 23.01.2013 - - - FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE

Moody's LT Credit Rating - - - - - FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE

Moody's LT Credit Rating Date - - - - - FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE

52-Week High Date

52-Week Low

Latest Fiscal Year:

52-Week High

Total Debt

Market Capitalization

Daily Volume

52-Week Low % Change

Current Price (3/dd/yy)

52-Week High % Change

Cash and Equivalents

EBITDA

EV/EBITDA

Enterprise Value

Valuation

Preferred Stock

52-Week Low Date

Minority Interest

Total Common Shares (M)

P/E

Revenue Growth

Total Revenue

EV/Total Revenue

EPS

EBITDA Growth

EBITDA Margin

Credit Ratings

Leverage/Coverage Ratios

Company Analysis - Peers Comparision


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