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Finance and development trends in amazonia
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Transcript of Finance and development trends in amazonia
Finance and Development Trends in Amazonia
Marc J. DourojeanniJune 2015
A brief presentation to the
«Funders of the Amazon Basin»
1.Amazon environmental situation vis a vis
deforestation and forest degradation and causes of the situation1.Direct causes: Agriculture (96% or more)2.Indirect causes: Roads (90% or more)3.Forest exploitation: selective logging,
fisheries, etc.2.Future infrastructure: Business as usual!3.Infrastructure impacting on natural resources:
1.Transportation2.Hydroenergy
4.Exploitation of natural resources1.(Agriculture, Forestry)2.Mining3.Oil & gas
5.Priorities for conservation investments
Contents
Probable current use of the land in the Amazon
Protected areas (minus superpositions) ……………… 20%
Strict protection……………………. 10%Soft protection ……………………… 10%
Indigenous land ……………………………………….. 21%Production, protection and non allocated forests ……. 30% ?Agriculture …………………………….…………….… 17%
Annual…. …………………………. 8%Grassland…………………………. 7%Permanent…………………………. 2%
Secondary forests (partially imbricated with annual agriculture and grassland)……….…..…. 6% ?Other (water bodies, cities, etc.) …………...….…..… 6%TOTAL ……………………………………..………… 100%Deforested……………….…………………………….. 20% ?
Causes of deforestation in Andean countries (Peru)
Over 80% unlawful: No title and unsuitable land
Small scale agriculture: 80% ?Mid size agriculture: 20% ?
Transformed into: Grassland: 16%Agriculture: 10%Fallow: 74%
BRAZILAn area exceeding 76 million ha (larger than all Peruvian Amazon), or about 19% of its total surface, has been cleared in the Amazon since 1970, when only 2.4% of the Amazon's forests had been lost.
Forest degradation
No overall evaluation available !However:
Every year degradation size is equivalent to deforestationConsidering the history of past 50 years of selective logging (moving from one species to another) + hunting + “secondary” products probably more than 50% of remaining forest is degraded.
Foreseen Amazon development is business as usual
Infrastructure with impact on natural
resourcesTransportation• Roads • Formal• Informal
• Railroads• Waterways• AirportsEnergy• Hydro-energyUrbanization
Exploitation of natural resources
Agriculture Annual crops
Formal (commodities)Informal
Cattle ranching Permanent: coffee, cacao, etc. Biofuels (oil palm, sugar cane)Oil and gasMining (Formal/Informal)ForestryFisheries
Infrastructure with impact on natural resourcesTransportation
1990 42,000 km in the Amazon2004-2007 17,000 km/year only in the Brazilian Amazon2012 96,500 km in the Amazon (RASG)2013 178,000 km of roads only in the Brazilian
Amazon (including inminent projects).
Laurance: • Brazil is currently building 7,500 kilometers of
new paved highways that crisscross the Amazon basin.
• By the year 2020, rates of forest destruction would rise by up to 500,000 ha/year, and the area of forest that remained in large, unfragmented tracts -exceeding 100,000 km2 would decline by 36%.
Informality
Most roads in the Amazon are not planned by national/federal or state/regional governments…
They respond to local decisions!
91% of the Brazilian roads are not paved and 80% of non-paved roads is municipal.o i.e. In Para State 72% is not paved and 77%
is municipalo In Peru it is worst. Even international roads
are being built without national approval. Six roads are now being built between the Amazon and Ucayali rivers and the Brazilian frontier all driven by individual or group interests (logging, farming, smuggling, etc.)
RAISG: 64.5% is non paved
International roads, railways and waterways
Peru-Brazil:2 Interoceanic roads (one bimodal) operating1 Interoceanic road in construction (Pucallpa-Cruzeiro do Sul )5 railways planned , 2 highly probable (China financing?)1 waterway operating but to be improved
Bolivia-Brazil:2 Interoceanic roads1 projected railway
Colombia-Brazil1 Interoceanic road + waterway
Venezuela-Brazil1 road operating
Anounced investments in Amazon transportation (billion US$)
Ministry of Transportation of Peru (2010-2021) Roads 3.8 Railways 5.1 Waterways
Government of Loreto (2006-2015) Roads 2.5 Railways 2.0 Waterways 2.6
The «Chinese» railway Brazil-
Peru
US$10 billion
Energy Agreement Brazil-Peru (2010):
7,000 MW in the next 50 years.
butThe Pongo de Manseriche (Marañón) project alone may produce 7,000MW
Brazilian dams in Operation: 74
Total in Brazil(operative, under construction & planned): 258
Total in Amazonia : 414(23 dams with more than 50,000 ha flooded area each)
Finer & Jenkins (Amazon Andes):Today: 41 small/mid size hydro Projects : 151 new hydroelectric projects
Infrastructure impacting on natural resources
Hydro-energy
Exploitation of natural resources
Mining , oil and gas MINING 53,000 permits or concessions covering 21%
of the Amazon…. (80% in Brazil, 11% in Peru)
Unlawful mining (garimpo)… much worst than legal mining (Peru, Brazil, Ecuador, Guyana, etc.)
OIL & GAS Concentrated in the Andean countries: 263
of the 327 petroleum concessions Enormous overlap with indigenous land and
some protected areas Only 25% is currently in the production
phase
Investments in Amazon infrastructure mentioned in official
documents (US$ billion) IIRSA (today’s COSIPLAN-UNASUR)
Agenda of Priority Integration (transport, energy) Projects: 544 projects, estimated at US$130 billion
Peru (Amazon 2010-2021), including natural resources exploitation US$80 billion
Brazilian PACTotal US$313 billion, over 40% in the Amazon NOT TO BE TAKEN VERY
SERIOUSLY… HOWEVER STILL MANY, MANY BILLION DOLLARS !
«Conservation» versus «Development» budgets
Annual budget for conservationGovernments…………………….. US$900
million/year ?Donations (Castro de la Mata)….. 206
million/year ?Carbon related ( REDD, etc.)……..
Future
Annual expenditures for developmentGovernmentsForeign private investmentsNational private investments
What to do with such small moneyfor conservation?
Many, many billion/year !!!
Priorities for conservation investments
Today’s internationally financed activities (Castro de la Mata):Legislation, policy, enforcement ….. 27.4%
PES/RED …………………………. 23.5%Protected areas ………………… 15.8%Local livelihood…………………… 7.5%Indigenous land……………………. 6.3%Others…………………………… 19.5%
Government expenses concentrates in enforcement but spend % less for protected areas.
These expenditures have no correlation with current and projected land use
situation !
Priorities for international conservation investments
% more investments are needed in the Andes.
Governments usually do not apply recommendation on legislation, policy or enforcement. Even less coming from abroad: A lot of paper and little results.
PES/RED is also much money wasted in paper. Governments are interested… they may pay for.
The only real significant success until now are the strictly protected areas. Every day more abandoned !
The main additional option for the future are the indigenous territories.
Poor results of expensive “community based conservation” … very long support for any success.
It is necessary to avoid dispersion of investments.
Best opportunities for conservation are (in priority order):
1. Strictly protected areas1. Better management, more areas2. Ecotourism & raising public
awareness3. Intensify sustainability in buffer
zones2. Indigenous territories
1. Profitability with sustainability2. Conservation practices (protected
areas inside)3. Soft protected areas
1. Profitability with sustainability4. Forest concessions and non allocated
forests1. Water conservation for cities
Priorities for international conservation investments
Temporal
gains that
must be consolid
ated