FINAL Supply side - Queen's University · Highest educational attainment is defined as a person's...

Supply Side of Aboriginal Post-Secondary Education in Canada Dr. Catherine Gordon and Dr. Jerry White

Draft Paper Submission for Conference Indigenous Issues in Post-Secondary Education: Transitions to the Workplace

Prologue

This paper is not an attempt to answer important questions about why we have certain

patterns of educational attainment and human capital development for Indigenous peoples in

Canada. That is a complex task that requires a sensitive historical analysis of the impact of

colonialism, the past and on-going impacts of residential schooling and the past and on-going

impacts of structures like the Indian Act. Clearly that is outside our scope here. There is an ever

growing literature that approaches these important issues. A soon to be published special issue of

the International Indigenous Policy Journal (iipj.org) is one source but there are many excellent

discussions including the RCAP reports, publications of Aboriginal Healing Foundation

(http://www.ahf.ca/publications) and many more (e.g.White et al 2009).

We have set out to give you a picture of the current levels of attainment (as measured by

the National Household Survey), compare them with past censuses and draw some tentative

conclusions about whether things are improving, are stagnant or are getting worse.

At the outset, we want to acknowledge that there are a great number of bright energetic

Aboriginal youth coming through the educational system. These people are going to be helping

to shape the future and will be making important contributions to the country, their communities

and changing the patterns of the past while building their futures. As we look at the sheer

numbers of students completing PSE we can see there is a growing Indigenous “intelligencia”

that will have its impact on policy and practice. They will be engaged in larger and larger

numbers in the economy which will benefit Canada and the Indigenous peoples themselves.

2

This is very positive story.

That said, we have to face up to the fact that the gaps in attainment between Indigenous

identity groups and non-Indigenous populations is VERY troublesome. The intra-Aboriginal

differences also point to important issues. We need to ensure that policy and practices that we

develop will have the impact that we want and need.

Our educational institutions are, in many ways, part of the front line in building PSE

engagement. They have more Indigenous students each year and are seeking the best practices

that can encourage recruitment, improve retention and boost completion. This conference is

about encouraging all these understandings and trying to close the gaps we identify for the

benefit of all.

Overview Summary

Concerns about the mismatch between labour demand and supply are typically about the

Canadian population as a whole. Strategies to address labour shortage concerns often do not

address the Aboriginal population. In this paper, we add to this discussion by examining

Aboriginal educational attainment over time. Encouraging and alarming patterns emerge.

Data used in the tables, figures, and calculations presented in this paper are derived from

the 1996, 2001, and 2006 Censuses and the 2011 National Household Survey (NHS). The

Aboriginal population is relatively young. In order to avoid inflating the number and proportion

of Aboriginals without a high school education, the age group 25-64 years is used as opposed to

15+ years; also, it is the typical working age group.

The success story from our analysis is the improvement in numbers of highly educated

Aboriginals (25-64 years).

• 1996-2011 period saw a total cumulative increase of 183,170 PSE graduates

3

• 281,765 Aboriginals reported PSE as their highest educational attainment in 2011

o 125,025 college graduates

o 66,095 university degree graduates

o 67,045 apprenticeship or trades graduates

• College attainment has been steady over time –something is working in this sector

• PSE gains were achieved for all Aboriginal groups (Status/Non-Status, On/Off

Reserve, First Nations, Inuit, and Métis)

Another indication of achievement for the Aboriginal population is the greater likelihood of PSE

attainment than less than a high school education; the reverse was true in 1996. PSE attainment

numbers could be higher if a greater number of Aboriginals completed high school. The pool of

young potential PSE students of 15-24 years could reach 183,419 in 20211 (from 148,010 in

2011) if improvements are made in high school completion.

This paper also reveals many troubling challenges. We hope the following patterns and

trends inspire and motivate us to strive for improvements.

• There is a 20 percentage point gap in PSE attainment between Aboriginal and Non-

Aboriginal populations. The largest disparity is university attainment.

• Status Aboriginals, On Reserve Aboriginals, and First Nations and Inuit populations have

the lowest educational achievements within the Aboriginal population.

Projections made for 5 and 10 years from now reveal that the alarming trends listed above will

continue. Within our current policy system, the difference between Non-Aboriginal and

Aboriginal populations is projected to stagnate; the gap is estimated to widen for On Reserve

1 Please note that this number is the POTENTIAL number of persons between 15-24 years old, in 2021, that we project will not have high school completion given our population projections AND projections for non-high school completion. The size of this number indicates that there is a large pool that would be available for PSE training if we improve high school completion rates. We revisit this in a later section.

4

Aboriginals, Status Aboriginals, and the Inuit population. Fundamental changes that appreciate

the variation among the Aboriginal population are warranted.

Regional variation tells us we can learn from provinces and territories with the greatest

achievements. Nova Scotia had the highest educational attainment levels; over half of its

Aboriginal population achieved PSE and just 26 percent had not graduated from high school.

Nunavut had the lowest educational attainment; almost 75 percent of the Aboriginal population

had not graduated from high school and only 15 percent achieved PSE. Despite having high

proportions of Aboriginal groups in their populations, the Prairies and Territories perform among

the worst with regard to educational achievement.

In order to continue making headway with educational attainment and address present

challenges, we need to discuss policies and best practices. We offer suggestions on how to start

these conversations by discussing the relationship between education and the labour market.

Methods

The data used in this paper were collected from the 1996, 2001, and 2006 Canadian

Censuses, as well as the 2011 National Household Survey. Publicly available data sets were

downloaded that included variables relating to Non-Aboriginal and Aboriginal populations,

Registered or Treaty Status, On/Off reserve status, and Aboriginal identity (First Nations, Inuit,

Métis), as well as educational attainment, geographic location, and age groups.

Highest educational attainment is defined as a person's “most advanced certificate,

diploma, or degree”. The variable included: (1) less than high school, (2) high school, and (3)

post-secondary education (PSE). PSE is further broken down into the following categories:

apprenticeship or trades, college or other non-university, university below the bachelor level, and

university at or above bachelor level (see Statistics Canada, 2011b). In each data set, there were

5

additional categories that complicate the presumed general hierarchy (high school graduation,

trades, college, and university). In order to avoid over-estimating high school or PSE attainment,

we combined the following categories. In the 1996 Census data set, categories of "some

apprenticeship", "some college", and "some university" were collapsed into the high school

educational attainment category because no diploma, certificate, or degree was obtained at the

PSE level. Similarly, the "some high school" category was grouped together with less than high

school level. The 2001-2006 Censuses and 2011 NHS had an option to examine whether a high

school diploma was attained in addition to the highest education achieved. We considered those

who had PSE yet no high school diploma to have less than high school education2. In the labour

market, potential employees typically have to show their resumes or fill in documentation about

their educational achievements; employers will presumably consider those without high school

completion to have a relatively lower educational attainment compared to high school graduates.

Limitations of NHS

The Aboriginal population in Canada is a very diverse group and aggregate figures can

obscure very different attributes. We have attempted to capture some of this diversity by

reporting on/off reserve and identity groups: Metis, First Nations (status/non-status) and Inuit.

Given the voluntary nature of the NHS there are inherently more potential groups and

geographical areas that may be under enumerated. Therefore the finer the analysis we do using

the NHS data the more likely there will be “under enumeration impacts” on the findings. The

most reliable situation is to have a stable methodology over time that has similar response

patterns (like the mandatory long form census).

2 This is an example of how researchers have to be careful to investigate the specificities of Indigenous communities. Aboriginal Affairs Canada (AANDC) was in the habit of requiring Indigenous persons, who were participating in certain transfer programs, to enroll in upgrading seminars or short certificate programs. People taking these certificates would often report their engagement as PSE thereby inflating the PSE numbers.

6

Statistics Canada (2011d) reported that approximately 75.3 percent of the census

subdivisions in Canada were included in the releases. This is lower than the previous Census in

2006. The non-response bias is likely to impact Aboriginal estimates generally and in rural

centers particularly. Saskatchewan was the most under-reported Province and this territory has a

high proportion of Aboriginal peoples.

In the 2011 NHS, there were a total of 36 Indian reserves and Indian settlements that

were incompletely enumerated. According to Statistics Canada (2011a), estimates associated

with the 'On/Off Reserve' variable are more affected than other variables because of the

incomplete enumeration of these Indian reserves and settlements.

Results

Results are organized into eight sections. The first two sections discuss the absolute

numbers in Aboriginal educational attainment over time for the 25-64 years age group. 3 In the

third part, we look at those aged 15-24 years to gain a sense of the size of potential PSE

applicants and graduates currently and in future years. Sections four through six include

examinations of educational attainment as a proportion of the population. Comparisons are made

with the Non-Aboriginal population in this part of the paper. Also, the Aboriginal population is

broken down based on geographic location, status/non-status, on/off reserve, and First Nations,

Inuit, and Métis identity groups. The seventh part is about projections of future attainment. We

examine whether, given current trends, we can determine if and when there will be no gap in

post-secondary education. The major field of study in PSE is discussed in the last section. The

analysis of major field of study has two components. The data as collected in the NHS (and in

previous censuses) and the data we borrowed from TD Bank who ordered a custom tabulation

which examined the major fields much more finely. 3 We also examined data for the 15+ years age group and found similar trends as the working age group.

7

Aboriginal Post-secondary Attainment Over Time

Highlights

• The number of post-secondary Aboriginal graduates increases over time.

• There are gains in the number of college and university degree graduates.

The sheer number of post-secondary Aboriginal graduates has increased tremendously

over the past 15 years for the 25-64 year age group.4 From 1996-2011, there was a total increase

of 183,170 Aboriginals who attained PSE. Steady increases mark each Census period; 71,925

from 1996-2001, 76,505 from 2001-2006, and 34,740 from 2006-2011. The absolute numbers of

persons with PSE attainment, along with the type, are shown in Table 1. The cumulative increase

of PSE graduates, in particular from colleges and universities, reveals a source of labour that has

the potential to impact labour shortages in Canada. Between 2006 and 2011, there were 21,120

new college graduates and 23,085 new university (at or above bachelor level) graduates. Note in

Table 1, college graduates consistently outnumber university degree graduates; the

preponderance of and growth in college attainment among PSE graduates is illustrated in Figure

1. Conversely, apprenticeship or trades numbers are in decline. The drop in the 2006-2011 period

reverses gains made in the 2001-2006 period. Possibly, this decline could indicate that

Aboriginal post-secondary students are choosing other paths at colleges and universities instead

of participating in apprenticeship or trades. It is also possible fewer apprenticeship opportunities

4 We utilized the 25-64 year old population for two reasons: 1) The 15+ year population inflates the number of people without high school completion and 2) The discussion for the conference is related to supply and demand for the labour market. Post 65 year olds are much more likely not to be employed compared to 25-65 year olds.

8

were available for interested students following the 2008 recession. This change is worth further

investigation in a future study.

Table 1 PSE Attainment for Aboriginal Population, 25-64 years, 1996-2011, absolute numbers

1996 2001 2006 2011 increase 1996-2011

Apprenticeship or trades 16000 69260 80060 67045 51045

College or other non-university 66935 66795 103905 125025 58090

University below bachelor level n/a 8125 20050 23605 15480¹

University at bachelor or above 15660 26340 43010 66095 50435

Total Post-Secondary Education 98595 170520 247025 281765 183170

Total Aboriginal Population 346485 443600 555420 671380 324895 SOURCES: Statistics Canada (1996, 2001a, 2006a, 2011a) NOTE: ¹ The increase for this PSE type is for the 2001-2011 time period because data are not available for 1996. Figure 1 PSE Type for Aboriginal Population, 25-64 years, 1996-2011, absolute numbers

SOURCES: Statistics Canada (1996, 2001a, 2006a, 2011a) NOTE: University below bachelor level became a category in the 2001 Census and data are not available for 1996.

As Figure 2 indicates, a growth in PSE graduates for status/non-status, on/off reserve, and

First Nations, Inuit, and Métis identity groups has also occurred over time. Absolute numbers for

these groups are shown in Table 2. The last column of Table 2 lists the cumulative increases

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

1996 2001 2006 2011

Apprenticeship orTrades

College

University below bachelor level

University degree

9

from 1996 to 2011. Off Reserve Aboriginals, Non-Status, and Métis Aboriginals have the largest

increases during this period; as we will discuss later in this paper, these particular groups often

have relatively higher educational attainment compared to other Aboriginal groups.

Figure 2 PSE Attainment for status/non-status, on/off reserve, and First Nations, Inuit, and Métis identity groups, 25-64 years, 1996-2011, absolute numbers

SOURCES: Statistics Canada (1996, 2001a, b, 2006a, c, 2011a) Table 2 PSE Attainment for status/non-status, on/off reserve, and First Nations, Inuit, and Métis identity groups, 25-64 years, 1996-2011, absolute numbers

1996 2001 2006 2011 increase 1996-2011

Status Aboriginals 55590 88755 117730 116225 60635

Non-Status Aboriginals 43010 81765 129295 165535 122525

On Reserve Aboriginals 22430 38250 46290 37355 14925

Off Reserve Aboriginals 76175 132285 200735 244415 168240

First Nations 65000 97845 131910 148010 83010

Inuit 4130 5700 7355 6255 2125

Métis 30425 60865 99175 117015 86590 SOURCES: Statistics Canada (1996, 2001a, b, 2006a, c, 2011a) High School Completion

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

1996 2001 2006 2011

Status Aboriginals

Non-Status Aboriginals

On Reserve Aboriginals

Off Reserve Aboriginals

First Nations

Inuit

Métis

10

All acknowledge, that low educational attainment can provide a real roadblock to larger

increases in the number of PSE graduates. Table 3 shows the rising numbers over time of

Aboriginals with no high school diploma or equivalent; the number increased by 80,165 in the

1996-2011 period. The number of high school graduates with no PSE completion also rose;

however, this group is considerably smaller than its less educated counterpart. A concern, then, is

high school completion. Mendelson (2006:31) reports that "the failure to complete high school

explains 88 percent of the variation in PSE."5 Increasing the number of high school graduates

increases the number of PSE graduates (Mendelson, 2006). Accordingly, high school completion

is an important key to moving forward with regard to improving Aboriginal PSE attainment.

Table 3 Less than High School and High School Highest Educational Attainment for Aboriginal Population, 25-64 years, 1996-2011, absolute numbers, 2016-2021 estimated numbers

1996 2001 2006 2011 increase 1996-2011

Projected 2016

Projected 2021

Less than high school 156605 171710 189395 236770 80165 253165 278983

High school 91275 101355 118960 152840 61565 166683 186913 SOURCES: Statistics Canada (1996, 2001a, 2006a, 2011a) NOTES: Less than high school trend line: slope = 25818, 'x' intercept = 124075, R-sq=0.9182 High school only trend line: slope = 20230, 'x' intercept = 65533, R-sq = 0.9336 We share Mendelson’s view that realizing the potential for PSE growth requires we

address high school completion rates if we are to narrow this gap in future years. We estimate

that 278,983 Aboriginals ( 24-64 years) will not have a high school education in 2021. Figure 3

illustrates the projected increases for both of these lower tiers of attainment. Any initiatives

carried out in the near future to increase the number of high school graduates will likely target

the youth. We investigate a younger age group in the next section to provide a sense of numbers

for educators and policy-makers.

5 The variables less than high school and PSE completion have a strong negative correlation (R-sq= 0.8782) (Mendelson, 2006).

11

Figure 3 Projected Less than High School and High School Only Educational Attainment for Aboriginal Population, 25-64 years, 1996-2021, absolute and estimated numbers

SOURCES: Statistics Canada (1996, 2001a, 2006a, 2011a) Potential PSE Participants: The Issue of High School Completion

In this section, we focus on the 15-24 year age category in order to examine potential

PSE participants.6 In 2011, 148,010 young Aboriginals had not yet graduated from high school.7

We assume that many of these individuals are currently in high school. This group has grown

over time, as shown in Table 4. The Aboriginal population in Canada is relatively young

(Statistics Canada, 2011d), which means we will continue to see a rise in the number of 15-24

year olds who are not high school graduates. The projected increase is illustrated in Figure 4. If

improvements in high school completion are made, the pool of young potential PSE students will

become larger; it could reach up to 183,419 by 2021. This has two implications: 1) The pressure

6 The 15-19 year old age category was not available for all years. 7 The 'attending school' variable is not helpful because we cannot control for whether students are in high school or PSE.

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 (est) 2021 (est)

Less than High School

High School Only

12

on PSE institutions should be increasing and; 2) This would provide a pool of people for labour

force involvement. The promising thing is the trend, which indicates improvements.

Table 4 Less than High School Attainment for Aboriginal Population, 15-24 years, 1996-2021, absolute and estimated numbers

1996 2001 2006 2011 Projected 2016

Projected 2021

Less than high school 96960 110280 132670 148010 165865 183419 SOURCES: Statistics Canada (1996, 2001a, 2006a, 2011a) NOTES: Trend line for projections in Table 4 and Figure 3: slope = 17554, 'x' intercept = 78095, R-sq=0.991 Figure 4 Less than High School Attainment for Aboriginal Population, 15-24 years, 1996-2021, absolute and estimated numbers

SOURCES: Statistics Canada (1996, 2001a, 2006a, 2011a)

However, if we see a continuing large proportion of youth that simply do not finish, that

will impact both the educational institutions and influence the capacity to participate in the

labour market forcing down participation and employment rates. This goes to underscore the

observation by Mendelson (2006) that a key to increasing PSE is to improve JK-12 completion.

We agree with Mendelson and note that there are important considerations in terms of improving

these graduation rates. Some are resources; some are curriculum; some are social capital and

norm issues; some relate to the policy and practice bred by colonialism and still others relate to

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 (est)

2021 (est)

13

the lack of economic opportunity seen by Indigenous youth which dissuades them from seeking

credentials.

Aboriginal Educational Attainment Over Time

Highlights

• The Aboriginal population between 24-64 years has grown very quickly and this growth

obscures improvements in educational attainment

• The proportion of people without high school completion has dropped in the last 15 years

• The proportion with just high school remains much the same

• PSE engagement has substantially increased

In this section, we discuss each level of education in terms of a proportion of the

Aboriginal population. Aboriginal educational attainment between 1996 and 2011 for working

age (25-64 years) individuals is documented in Table 5. Despite an increase in absolute numbers,

the proportion of those who achieved less than a high school education declined from 45 percent

in 1996 to 35 percent in 2011. This drop corresponds with a rise of those with a post-secondary

education (PSE) certificate, diploma, or degree; in 1996, 28 percent of the population attained a

PSE compared to 42 percent in 2011. The proportion of those with at most a high school level of

education has remained constant over the past 15 years. Figure 5 illustrates the changing and

continuing trends in educational attainment over time. Note how the trend lines for less than high

school and PSE crossed; the largest proportion of the Aboriginal population is no longer those

with less than a high school education but rather those graduated with a PSE. This crossing is a

great turning point for this population.

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Table 5 Highest Educational Attainment for Aboriginal and Non-Aboriginal Populations, 25-64 years, 1996-2011, percentages

1996 2001 2006 2011

Aboriginals

Less than high school 45 39 34 35

High school 26 23 21 23

Post-Secondary Education 28 38 44 42

Apprenticeship or trades 5 16 14 10

College or other non-university 19 15 19 19

University below bachelor level n/a 2 4 4

University at bachelor or above 5 6 8 10

Total (N) 346485 443600 555420 6713808

Non-Aboriginals








Total (N) 15153640 15844705 16826695 17712540 SOURCES: Statistics Canada (1996, 2001a, 2006a, 2011a)

8 This represents a major increase in Aboriginal population. When we examine the gaps between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal attainment levels we should keep in mind that the large population increases will mask the large numbers of Indigenous people who are completing advanced education. Arguably, improvements in terms of gaps will be more difficult given the large base population.

15

Figure 5 Aboriginal Educational Attainment 25-64 years, 1996-2011, percentages


The types of PSE that Aboriginals typically achieve are also shown in Table 5. The

population's PSE gains over time occur because of the increased attainment in apprenticeship or

trades and university (at or above bachelor level). These changes are illustrated in Figure 6.

Attainment in apprenticeship or trades has risen by five percentage points; but as Figure 6 shows,

it has also been variable, from five percent in 1996, up to 16 percent in 2001, and down to 10

percent in 2011. Education at the university level has risen. Between 1996 and 2011, the

percentage of the working age population with a university degree rose from five to 10 percent.

Notably, four percent have attained diplomas or certificates from universities below the bachelor

level.9 Trends in other PSE types are relatively constant. Attainment in college remains the same

in 2011 as it was in 1996 (19 percent). The steady increase in the number of college graduates

over time is hidden because the Aboriginal population has also grown.

9 University education below the bachelor level became an option of highest educational attainment in 2001 and accordingly, data are not available for 1996 Census data.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1996 2001 2006 2011

< HS HS PSE

16

Figure 6 Aboriginal Type of PSE Attainment, 25-64 years, 1996-2011, percentages


Variation in the type of PSE is shown in Figure 6. The recent decline in apprenticeship or

trades achievement that was discussed earlier in this paper is illustrated. The sharp downward

slope of the trend line reveals a steady decline of these graduates as a proportion of the

population. The successes illustrated in this figure are college and university degree attainments.

The relatively stable college trend line, with the exception of a dip in the 1996-2001 period, and

the rising university degree slope, indicate that something is working in these sectors. We should

keep in mind that Non-Aboriginal PSE engagement has also been increasing rapidly.

Comparisons between Aboriginal and Non-Aboriginal Highest Educational Attainment

Highlights

• 62 percent of Non-Aboriginals (25-64 years) have PSE

The Non-Aboriginal population (25-64 years) has become more highly educated over

time.10 As documented in Table 5, the population's proportion of PSE attainment has increased,

whereas the proportions of high school only and less than high school have declined over time. 10 See Appendix Table A.1 for absolute numbers.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1996 2001 2006 2011

Apprenticeship or Trades

College

University below bachelor

University at or above bachelor

17

These patterns are illustrated in Figure 7. Note that PSE attainment has constantly been higher

than the other levels of education, unlike the Aboriginal population.

Figure 7 Non-Aboriginal Educational Attainment 25-64years, 1996-2011, percentages


Patterns in the types of PSE attainment among the Non-Aboriginal population parallel

trends for the Aboriginal population.11 Figure 8 illustrates a steady increase of university

attainment. College attainment among Non-Aboriginals remained about the same from 1996 to

2011; albeit more individuals had college diplomas and certificates compared to previous years

(see Appendix Table A.1). Apprenticeship or trades attainment increased over time but

experienced the sharpest rise between 1996 and 2001. Also, university below a bachelor level is

miniscule; this type of PSE attainment will be subsequently omitted from this analysis.12

11 See Appendix Tables A.2 and A.3 for proportional gains for Aboriginal and Non-Aboriginal Populations. 12 Absolute numbers for this type of PSE are included in the Appendix Tables.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1996 2001 2006 2011

< HS

HS

PSE

18

Figure 8 Non-Aboriginal Type of PSE Attainment, 25-64 years, 1996-2011, percentages


A critical issue is the disparity between Aboriginal and Non-Aboriginal populations. In

order to investigate this gap, or lack thereof, we first compare the trend lines of attainment for

both populations. Figure 9 illustrates a PSE attainment comparison; gaps over time were 15

percentage points in 1996, 16 percentage points in 2001, 17 percentage points in 2006, and 20

percentage points in 2011. The difference is not narrowing but rather slowly widening. Indeed,

the dotted line in Figure 10 represents the gap ratio of PSE attainment. This ratio13 takes the

Aboriginal percent (numerator) over the Non-Aboriginal percent (denominator) and converts the

proportion into a percent. The closer this line is to 100 percent, the smaller the gap because the

proportions would be equivalent. The gap ratio line shows that Aboriginal PSE attainment was

65 percent of the Non-Aboriginal PSE attainment in 1996 and it has increased little since. At

best, the gap ratio line has stagnated. At worse, it is beginning to decline. Realizing the potential

growth of Aboriginal PSE attainment if the impediment of high school incompletion improves is

imperative to possibly narrow this difference in future years.

13 In effect the gap ratio adjusts simple gap percentages into a relationship sensitive to overall increases in the proportions.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1996 2001 2006 2011

Apprenticehip or Trades

College

University below bachelor University at or above bachelor

19

Figure 9 Aboriginal and Non-Aboriginal PSE Attainment, 25-64 years, 1996-2011

SOURCES: Statistics Canada (1996, 2001a, 2006a, 2011a) Figure 10 Ratio of the PSE Gap, Aboriginal : Non-Aboriginal, 25-64 years, 1996-2011


In Figures 11 through 13, the type of PSE attainment is used as a comparison point in

order to determine whether the gap is widening for all levels of PSE. There is no gap in trades

and apprenticeship (Figure 11). Recall that college attainment remained about constant over time

for both groups; there is a slight difference between them shown in Figure 12. The biggest gap is

in university attainment. In Figure 13, the space between the two trend lines is slowly widening,

43%

54% 61% 62%

28%

38% 44% 42%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1996 2001 2006 2011

Non-Aboriginal

Aboriginal

65% 70% 72% 68%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1996 2001 2006 2011

Non-Aboriginal

Aboriginal

Gap ratio

20

which is similar to the comparison of PSE attainment. University attainment has the most

influence in the increasing gap between our populations. The number of Aboriginal degree

holders is increasing both absolutely and proportionally, but the increase in non-Aboriginal

university completion is even faster.

Figure 11 Aboriginal and Non-Aboriginal Apprenticeship or Trades Attainment, 25-64 years, 1996-2011

SOURCES: Statistics Canada (1996, 2001a, 2006a, 2011a) Figure 12 Aboriginal and Non-Aboriginal College Attainment, 25-64 years, 1996-2011


4%

13% 12% 10% 5%

16% 14%

10%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1996 2001 2006 2011

Non-Aboriginal

Aboriginal

21% 18%

20% 21%

19%

15%

19% 19%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1996 2001 2006 2011

Non-Aboriginal

Aboriginal

21

Figure 13 Aboriginal and Non-Aboriginal University Attainment, 25-64 years, 1996-2011

SOURCES: Statistics Canada (1996, 2001a, 2006a, 2011a) Aboriginal Identity Groups and Geographic Location

As shown in the previous section, the gap between Aboriginals and Non-Aboriginals has

not improved and appears to have worsened. Clearly this is the case for 2006-2011. Yet, the

Aboriginal population is a heterogeneous group. This begs the question of how groups within the

Aboriginal identity fare with regard to educational attainment. We examine attainment by

geographic location, registered status, on/off reserve status, and identity group (First Nations,

Inuit, and Métis).

Geographic Location

Figure 14 illustrates the distribution of highest educational attainment among the

Aboriginal working age population across the provinces and territories for 2011.14 Locations are

rank ordered according to the proportion of PSE attainment. The top seven provinces (NS, Nfld

& Labrador, ON, QUE, NB, PEI, and BC) have a higher proportion of PSE than “less than high

school” level of education. For example, among the Aboriginal population in Nova Scotia, 53

percent possess a PSE and 26 percent have less than a high school education. Reading down the

14 See Appendix Table A.4 for absolute numbers.

17% 20%

23% 26%

5% 6% 8%

10%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1996 2001 2006 2011

Non-Aboriginal

Aboriginal

22

provinces on the vertical axis of Figure 10, this trend stops at Yukon; here, the proportions of

high school incompletion and PSE are equivalent at 40 percent. The trend afterward for the

remaining provinces and territories is a higher proportion of “less than high school” education

than PSE. Two things jump out at us from this figure:

1) The most alarming difference is Nunavut where 73 percent of the Aboriginal population

have less than a high school education and 15 percent have a PSE.

A notable demographic trend in Canada, is that the Territories and the Prairie Provinces

typically have the highest proportions of Aboriginal peoples in their populations; whereas in

absolute numbers, Ontario has the largest Aboriginal populations (e.g., see Statistics Canada,

2006). However, the Aboriginal populations of the Prairies and Territories have lower

educational attainment. In fact they have the lowest provincial rates of high school completion

with higher proportions of less than high school education than PSE attainment.

2) As noted in the TD Bank report (2013a) on the economy, job creation has been higher in

the Western provinces. Saskatchewan has the lowest unemployment levels for example.

If PSE attainment is presumed to make individuals labour market ready, there is a

geographical mismatch between a lesser trained Aboriginal population and a very hot job

market.

Despite having a large presence of Aboriginal groups in their populations, the Prairies and

Territories are performing among the worse in Canada for educational attainment. Perhaps they

might look to the other provinces for best practices to improve the educational achievement

among their Aboriginal populations. B.C. stands out as a more successful Western province.

23

Figure 14 Aboriginal Highest Educational Attainment, Provinces and Territories, 25-64 years, 2011, percentages

SOURCES: Statistics Canada (2011a) Registered or Treaty Status

In order to gauge what is contributing to the trends in PSE attainment for Aboriginal

population, we first examine highest educational attainment by Registered or Treaty Status15.

For the ease of reading, we refer to this group as Status Aboriginals (versus Non-Status

Aboriginals). In 2011, 48 percent of the Aboriginal population had Status (Statistics Canada,

2011c).

In Table 6, these two groups are compared over time with regard to less than high school,

high school, and PSE attainment.16 Relatively speaking, Non-Status Aboriginals tend to have

higher education credentials compared to Status Aboriginals. In 1996, both groups had a high

proportion of its population who failed to complete high school. Over time we see a real 15 According to Statistics Canada (2011b),"Registered or Treaty Indian status' refers to whether or not a person reported being a Registered or Treaty Indian. Registered Indians are persons who are registered under the Indian Act of Canada. Treaty Indians are persons who belong to a First Nation or Indian band that signed a treaty with the Crown. Registered or Treaty Indians are sometimes also called Status Indians." 16 See Appendix Table A.5 for absolute numbers.

73 52

43 39

37 40

32 35

31 37

28 33

26

12 17

23 24

23 20

25 21

24 17

25 17

22

15 31

34 37

40 40

43 43 45 46 48

50 53

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Nunavut NWT

MB SK AB

Yukon BC PEI NB

QUE ON

Nfld & Labrador NS

<HS HS PSE

24

improvement for the non-status population. In 2011, 29 percent of Non-Status had less than a

high school education, down from 42 percent in 1996. In comparison, however, the proportion of

Status Aboriginals with less than a high school level of education remained high – 43 percent in

2011 down from 47 percent in 1996. The decline for the Non-Status was complemented by a rise

in the percentage of those with a PSE; in 2011, 47 percent had a PSE compared to 31 percent in

1996. PSE attainment among those with Status also increased but more moderately: from 27

percent in 1996 to 36 percent in 2011.

Although both groups have lower PSE attainment compared to Non-Aboriginals, their

respective gaps are different. These three trend lines are compared in Figure 15. The gap

between Non-Status Aboriginals and Non-Aboriginals increased from 12 percentage points in

1996 to 15 percentage points in 2011; whereas the gap between Status Aboriginals and Non-

Aboriginals widened from 16 percentage points in 1996 to 26 percentage points in 2011. Recall

that in 2011, 42 percent of all Aboriginals had PSE attainment – a 20 percentage point gap with

Non-Aboriginals. Considering this information together tells us that within the Aboriginal

population, those with Status have poorer educational attainment and likely contribute

disproportionately to the gap.

25

Table 6 Highest Educational Attainment among Aboriginals by Status, 25-64 years, 1996-2011, percentages

1996 2001 2006 2011

Status Aboriginals



Post-Secondary Education (PSE) 27 36 41 36




Total number (N) 207930 247720 286580 321820








Total number (N) 138560 195885 268840 349555 SOURCES: Statistics Canada (1996, 2001b, 2006c, 2011a)

26

Figure 15 PSE Attainment among Non-Aboriginals and Aboriginals by Status, 25-64 years, 1996-2011, percentages

SOURCES: Statistics Canada (1996, 2001b, 2006c, 2011a)

Recall from Table 5 that the PSE attainment among the Aboriginal population broke

down this way:

10 percent apprenticeship or trades,

19 percent college, and

10 percent university (at or above bachelor level).

In comparison, Status Aboriginals had relatively lower percentages than the Aboriginal

population for every type of PSE as shown in Table 6. In 2011, 16 percent had college

attainment and eight percent attained university degree attainment. Non-Status Aboriginals had

higher attainment; in 2011, 21 percent had college attainment and 11 percent attained university.

The educational attainment of the Aboriginal population is situated in between the attainment of

these two groups. Accordingly, Status Aboriginals need particular consideration if the current

plateau of educational attainment among the Aboriginal population is to be broken. While

persons with status can live anywhere, the population of the First Nation communities (reserves)

43%

54% 61% 62%

31%

42% 48% 47%

27%

36% 41%

36%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1996 2001 2006 2011

Non-Aboriginal

Non-Status Aboriginal

Status Aboriginal

27

are overwhelmingly those with status. In the next section we see if there is any pattern for those

Aboriginal peoples living on and off reserve.

On/Off Reserve Status

Highlights

• Off Reserve Aboriginal peoples have improved their education levels substantially since

1996.

• On Reserve individuals have remained at the same educational attainment over the last 15

years.

• The gap between off reserve Aboriginal people’s attainment and Non-Aboriginal attainment

is substantially smaller than the on-reserve population gap and is explained largely by

differences in university degree attainment.

Differences within the Aboriginal population also emerge when the area in which one

lives – on or off the reserve – is considered. The highest educational attainments for “On and Off

Reserve Aboriginals” are shown in Table 7.17 Over time, Off Reserve Aboriginals increased their

levels of education. In 1996, the proportion of those with less than a high school education (42

percent) was higher than the proportion of those with a PSE (30 percent); but in 2011, this ratio

reversed (30 percent had less than high school education and 46 percent had a PSE). In

comparison, attainment of all three levels of educational attainment has been relatively stable

among On Reserve Aboriginals. Absolute numbers rose for each educational level (see Appendix

Table A.6) but at a similar rate as population growth. This group consistently has had a higher

proportion of its population with less than high school education compared to those with a PSE.


28

Table 7 Highest Educational Attainment among Aboriginals by On/Off Reserve, 25-64 years, 1996-2011, percentages

1996 2001 2006 2011

On-Reserve Aboriginals



Post-Secondary Education (PSE)

24 32 35 27




Total number (N) 92340 118415 131750 140270

Off-Reserve Aboriginals







Total number (N) 254150 325185 423655 531110 SOURCES: Statistics Canada (1996, 2001a, 2006a, 2011a)

Figure 16 illustrates the proportion of PSE attainment over time for these identity groups

and compares them to that of the Non-Aboriginal population. The PSE gap between Non-

Aboriginals and On Reserve Aboriginals is alarmingly high (62 percent versus 27 percent). It

also appears to have gotten worse over time, whereas the gap for Off Reserve Aboriginals has

been relatively stable. Indeed, the gap ratio of PSE attainment for Aboriginals living off reserve

improved four percentage points in the 1996-2011 period; in 2011, the PSE attainment of Off

29

Reserve Aboriginals was 74 percent of Non-Aboriginal PSE attainment. Recall that the closer to

100 percent, the two groups are more equivalent. For On-Reserve Aboriginals, the gap ratio

widened from 56 percent in 1996 to 44 percent in 2011.

Figure 16 PSE Attainment by Non-Aboriginal and On/Off Reserve Aboriginal, 25-64 years, 1996-2011, percentage


Table 7 also shows the type of PSE attainment among Aboriginals who live on/off

reserve. Among Off Reserve Aboriginals, the proportion of those with apprenticeship or trades

or college attainment matches corresponding proportions for the Non-Aboriginal population;

there is a large difference, however, with regard to university degree attainment (11 percent for

Off Reserve and 26 percent for Non-Aboriginals in 2011). The achievement for On Reserve

Aboriginals is comparable worse – almost half of what Non-Aboriginals achieve for each type of

PSE.

43%

54%

61% 62%

30%

41% 47% 46%

24%

32% 35%

27%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1996 2001 2006 2011

Non-Aboriginal

Off Reserve

On Reserve

GAP RATIO: on reserve PSE attainment was 44% that of Non-Aboriginal PSE attainment

30

Identity Group

Highlights

• Metis have the smallest PSE gap with non-Aboriginals followed by First Nations and

then Inuit.

• The gap between Inuit educational attainment and Non-Aboriginal peoples is getting

much worse.

• The greatest gap is related to university.

Table 8 compares the highest educational attainment of the following identity groups:

First Nations (North American Indian), Inuit, and Métis.18 Only single responses are used; less

than one percent of the Aboriginal population identifies as multiple identities. Similar to other

decompositions of the Aboriginal population discussed above, some Aboriginal identities

perform better than others with regard to educational attainment. Specifically, Métis achieve the

highest PSE attainment over time. This group also has a higher proportion of its population with

PSE attainment than without a high school education (49 percent versus 26 percent in 2011). In

comparison, the ratio of PSE attainment and less than a high school education was about

equivalent for the First Nations population (38 percent versus 40 percent) and in reverse order

among the Inuit population (25 percent versus 59 percent). Recall, that our analysis in the

preceding section did note that Status and On Reserve First Nations peoples had lower

attainments than Non-Status and Off Reserve members of this identity group. The PSE

attainment of First Nations and Inuit appear to be contributing to the gap in PSE attainment

between the Aboriginal population and Non-Aboriginal population. Figure 17 illustrates the


31

different gaps in PSE attainment between the Non-Aboriginal population and the Aboriginal

identity groups. The gap between Non-Aboriginals and Métis has been relatively consistent over

time but has worsened for First Nations and drastically increased for Inuit. We do caution readers

that the 2011 NHS data was collected somewhat differently than previous Censuses and

therefore it will be important to see the next collection periods for comparison (2016 and 2021).

Table 8 Highest Educational Attainment by Aboriginal Identity, 25-64 years, 1996-2011, percentages

1996 2001 2006 2011

First Nations



Post-Secondary Education (PSE)

27 37 42 38




Total number (N) 236505 267400 316425 389210

Inuit







Total number (N) 15380 17940 20375 24910

Métis




32




Total number (N) 237710 200120 142835 97635 SOURCES: Statistics Canada (1996, 2001a, 2006a, 2011a) Figure 17 PSE Attainment by Non-Aboriginal and Aboriginal Identity, 25-64 years, 1996-2011, percentages

SOURCES: Statistics Canada (1996, 2001a, 2006a, 2011a) Further exploration of PSE types by Aboriginal identity group can help us better

understand the differences among our comparison groups. These comparisons are illustrated in

Figures 18, 19, and 20. In Figure 18, the trend lines among the identity groups and Non-

Aboriginal population are closely matched with regard to apprenticeship or trades attainment.

Recall that the Aboriginal population typically has a higher proportion of its population with this

level of education compared to the Non-Aboriginal population (see Figure 11). This trend

appears true for all of the identity groups except for data collected in 2011. In 2011, Inuit and

First Nations apprenticeship or trades attainment falls below the trend line for Non-Aboriginals.

Given what we know from previous discussion that Aboriginal university graduation was up and

43%

62%

31%

49%

27%

38%

27% 25%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1996 2001 2006 2011

Non-Aboriginal

Métis

First Nations

Inuit

33

college numbers were stable, this drop in apprenticeship and trades among Inuit and First

Nations likely explains some of the decline among Aboriginals.

College attainment among Aboriginal and Non-Aboriginal populations has been similar

(19 percent and 21 percent, respectively, for both 1996 and 2011). In Figure 19, there is a close

alignment between Non-Aboriginals and Métis but less so for First Nations and Inuit

populations. There was some similarity in 1996 but this changed afterward; whereas Non-

Aboriginal's college attainment remained constant, college attainment among Inuit population

declined over time from 19 percent to 12 percent. In the recent 2006-2011 period, there are fewer

Inuit college graduates but more First Nations and Métis college graduates (see Appendix Table

A.7). This range of college attainment among the identity groups is hidden within the Aboriginal

population.

University attainment is compared in Figure 20. The greatest gap between Aboriginals

and Non-Aboriginals occurred with this level of education and appears true for all identity

groups. Once again, however, the Inuit population fares much worse when compared to Métis

and First Nations.

Figure 18 Apprenticeship or Trades Attainment among Non-Aboriginal and Aboriginal Identity Groups, 25-64 years, 1996-2011, percentages


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1996 2001 2006 2011

Non-Aboriginal Métis

First Nations

Inuit

34

Figure 19 College Attainment among Non-Aboriginal and Aboriginal Identity Groups, 25-64 years, 1996-2011, percentages

SOURCES: Statistics Canada (1996, 2001a, 2006a, 2011a) Figure 20 University Attainment among Non-Aboriginal and Aboriginal Identity Groups, 25-64 years, 1996-2011, percentages


21%

22%

17%

12%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1996 2001 2006 2011


First Nations Inuit

26%

12%

9%

5% 0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1996 2001 2006 2011


First Nations Inuit

35

Projections for 2021: Will we see improvements

Highlights

• Projections out to 2021 indicate that without a change in conditions or approach, the gap

between the Aboriginal population's PSE and the non-Aboriginal population will remain

roughly the same.

• The gap for status Indians will significantly widen by 2021.

• The gap for on-reserve populations will significantly increase by 2021.

• The difference between Off Reserve Aboriginals and Non-Aboriginals is projected to

narrow.

• The gap for Metis will improve by 2021.

So far in this paper, we have made many comparisons between Aboriginal populations

and the Non-Aboriginal population with regard to educational attainment. The gap in PSE

attainment appeared worse for Status First Nations, On Reserve, and Inuit populations. In this

section, we explore whether equilibrium will occur in the near future. Trend lines are projected 5

and 10 years into the future. Comments on the future are also made. In order to make the

following projections, we assume that fertility and mortality rates for all populations remain at

current levels and there are no major shifts in general economic or social conditions.

Aboriginal Population

We project that PSE attainment for Aboriginal and Non-Aboriginal populations (25-64

years) will continue to rise over the next 10 years.19 Among the Aboriginal population, PSE

19 For the regression lines, the 'x' axis was changed in the following ways in order to best capture the trend: 1 = 1996, 2 = 2001, 3 = 2006, and 4 = 2011.

36

attainment will rise from 42 percent in 2011 to 50 percent in 2016 and 55 percent in 2021.20

Seventy-seven percent of the Non-Aboriginal population are projected to attain PSE in 2021.21

As shown in Figure 21, the continual rise for both populations suggests the gap remains constant.

Simply put, the Aboriginal population started out with a lower PSE attainment and accordingly,

will not likely reach similar proportions to the Non-Aboriginal population anytime soon if

everything stays the same. The illustration in Figure 22 strengthens this finding. The trend line

for the gap ratio between Aboriginal and Non-Aboriginal PSE attainment is plotted. Recall that

there is no gap when the ratio equals 100 percent. This gap appears to be stagnated; at best, it

may be on the decline.

Figure 21 Projected PSE Attainment Aboriginal and Non-Aboriginal, 25-64 years, 1996-2021, percentages


20 Aboriginal PSE attainment regression line: slope = 4.8, 'x' intercept = 26, R-squared = 0.7579 21 Non-Aboriginal PSE attainment trend line: slope = 6.4, intercept = 39, and R-squared = 0.8904

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

Aboriginal

Non-Aboriginal

77%

55%

1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 (est) (est)

37

Figure 21 Projected PSE Attainment Gap Ratio (Aboriginal : Non-Aboriginal), 25-64yrs, 1996-2021, percentages

SOURCES: Statistics Canada (1996, 2001a, 2006a, 2011a) Status Aboriginal Populations

Figure 23 illustrates projected PSE attainment of Status and Non-Status Aboriginals to

2021. For Non-Status Aboriginals, PSE attainment is expected to rise from 47 percent in 2011 to

56 percent in 2016 and 61 percent in 2021.22Attainment for Non-Status Aboriginals will reach

current proportions of Non-Aboriginal in 10 years. However, the gap will not reduce

significantly because the PSE attainment for the Non-Aboriginal population will continue to

increase. The projected gap ratio is shown in Figure 24. It indicates that there is a very slight

improvement in the gap for non-status and worsening situation for status Aboriginals23

22 Non-Status PSE attainment regression line: slope = 0.054, intercept = 0.285, R-squared = 0.8011 23 Status PSE attainment regression line: slope = 0.032, intercept = 0.27, R-squared = 0.5019

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Aboriginal

Non-Aboriginal Gap Ratio

1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 (est) (est)

38

Figure 23 Projected PSE Attainment of Status and Non-Status Aboriginals, 25-64 years, 1996-2021, percentages

SOURCES: Statistics Canada (1996, 2001b, 2006c, 2011a) Figure 24 Projected PSE Attainment Gap Ratio (Status : Non-Aboriginal), 25-64 years, 1996-2021, percentages

SOURCES: Statistics Canada (1996, 2001b, 2006c, 2011a) On/Off Reserve Aboriginal Populations

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Non-Status

Status

46%

61%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

Gap Ratio Non-Status

Gap Ratio Status

1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 (est) (est)

1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 (est) (est)

39

Recall from the above discussion, the PSE attainment of On Reserve Aboriginals is 27

percent. In 2016, attainment will rise to 33 percent and 34 percent in 2021. The slope presented

in Figure 25 is very flat.24 This line indicates that improvements in PSE attainment, for On

Reserve populations, will be minimal, if current trends hold true. As PSE attainment of Non-

Aboriginals increases, then, the difference with On Reserve Aboriginals will likely get bigger

over time if no interventions are made. Indeed, this potential gap is shown in Figure 26.

In comparison, PSE attainment for Off Reserve Aboriginals will increase from 46 percent

in 2011 to 55 percent in 2016 and 60 percent in 2021.25 Note the steepness of the slope in Figure

21. The gap ratios plotted in Figure 26 illustrate that the difference between Off Reserve

Aboriginals and Non-Aboriginals is slowly narrowing which is positive.

Figure 25 Projected PSE Attainment of On and Off Reserve, 25-64 years, 1996-2021, percentages


24 On Reserve PSE attainment regression line: slope = 0.012, intercept = 0.265, R-squared = 0.0986 25 Off Reserve PSE attainment regression line: slope = 0.054, intercept = 0.275, R-squared = 0.801

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Off Reserve

On Reserve

1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 (est) (est)

40

Figure 26 Projected PSE Attainment Gap Ratio (On/Off Reserve: Non-Aboriginal), 25-64 years, 1996-2021, percentages

SOURCES: Statistics Canada (1996, 2001a, 2006a, 2011a) Aboriginal Identity Populations

Projections in PSE attainment by Aboriginal identity, shown in Figure 27, illustrate the

continuation of trends seen in 2011 for these groups.26 Recall that Métis had greater educational

success compared to the other identity groups. Métis PSE attainment is projected to increase to

59 percent in 2016 and 65 percent in 2021. In comparison, the PSE attainment among First

Nations will rise to 46 percent in 2016 and 49 percent in 2021. Inuit PSE attainment is projected

to stagnate around 30 percent.

The gap ratios between these groups and the Non-Aboriginal population are illustrated in

Figure 28. Whereas the ratio between Métis and Non-Aboriginal population indicates a growing

equality over time, and actually implies we will see a similar level at some time in the future, it

predicts the opposite for Inuit populations.

26 Métis PSE attainment regression line: slope = 0.061, intercept = 0.28, R-squared = 0.8133 First Nations PSE attainment regression line: slope = 0.038, intercept = 0.265, R-squared = 0.5918 Inuit PSE attainment regression line: slope = -0.002, intercept = 0.305, R-squared = 0.0027

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

Gap Ratio Off Reserve

Gap Ratio On Reserve

1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 (est) (est)

41

Figure 27 Projected PSE Attainment by Aboriginal Identity, 25-64 years, 1996-2021, percentages

SOURCES: Statistics Canada (1996, 2001a, 2006a, 2011a) Figure 28 Projected PSE Attainment Gap Ratio (Identity: Non-Aboriginal), 25-64 years, 1996-2021, percentages

SOURCES: Statistics Canada (1996, 2001a, 2006a, 2011a) These results point to the need to make improvements for Status, on reserve populations

and Inuit peoples.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Métis

First Nations

Inuit

49%

29%

65%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Métis

First Nations

Inuit

1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 (est) (est)

1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 (est) (est)

42

Major Field of Study

In the previous sections we have shown evidence of a persistent gap in educational

attainment that will likely continue in the future without improvements in the educational

processes currently in place. Now, we turn to explore what is being studied at the PSE level. The

key question here is “Are people’s studies matched with the jobs that are available and being

created in the Canadian economy?"

We have looked at this in two ways. First we took the “major field of study” data as they

are grouped by the NHS. The categories present a very coarse indication of areas of training

which lumps many fields together. We discuss this below but as Table 7 reports, the major field

of study for both Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal students are roughly the same. The results are

uniquely unremarkable.

Table 9 Top 6 Major Field of Study of PSE, Aboriginal and Non-Aboriginal, 25-64 years, 2011

Aboriginal Non-Aboriginal

1 architecture, engineering, & related technologies

architecture, engineering, & related technologies

2 business, management, & public administration

business, management, & public administration

3 health & related fields health & related fields

4 personal, protective, & transportation services

social & behavioural sciences & law

5 education education

6 social & behavioural sciences & law personal, protective, & transportation services

SOURCES: Statistics Canada (2011c) We then examined TD Bank (2013a, b) reports. TD Bank had a custom tabulation done

of the field of studies that allowed an examination of much more fine distinctions (76 separate

43

fields compared with 12 aggregates in the NHS release). The results are much more informative

(see TD Bank 2013b, Table 3). Differences between Aboriginals and Non-Aboriginals arose in

specific fields. Below is their table.

NOTES: Table curtsey of TD Bank. 15+ years age group is used. As they note “there is an equal overrepresentation of Aboriginal peoples pursuing degrees related

to education, health care and public administration…[and they are] underrepresented in several

areas, including commerce, math & computer science, engineering, and the sciences."

In our analysis of the aggregated areas of study, we selected comparable data available

for the 2006 Census and 2011 NHS with regard to the major field of study variable.27 The

distributions of the major field of study among Aboriginals, 25-64 years of age, in 2006 and

2011 are quite alike, as shown in Figure 29.28 The most popular fields of study include (1)

architecture, engineering, & related technologies, (2) business, management, & public

administration, and (3) health and related fields. Over half of those with PSE attainment studied

in these three fields. Note that only six percent of those who attained PSE majored in social and

behavioural sciences and law – a subject that First Nations Studies would be classified under.

27 The classification title changed somewhat (from Classification of Instructional Programs, 2000 to Classification of Instructional Programs, 2011), but there was only one minor difference in the categories. The 2006 CIP listed "Health, parks, recreation and fitness", whereas the 2011 CIP labelled this field of study "Health and related services." Considering the other category labels remained the same, we see no problem with relabeling the former to "Health and related services." 28 See Appendix Table 8 for 2011 absolute numbers for Aboriginal and Non-Aboriginal populations.

Aboriginal peoples on reserves

Aboriginal peoples off reserves

Non-Aboriginal peoples

OverrepresentationEducation 40.3% 21.5% 13.0%Health care and social services 5.7% 11.5% 12.0%Public administration and social services 13.8% 6.5% 1.9%Area, ethnic, cultural, gender, and group studies 3.1% 1.3% 0.2%Legal studies 2.7% 3.5% 2.7%

UnderrepresentationBusiness, management, and marketing 8.9% 11.4% 18.2%Mathematics, computer and information sciences 0.8% 2.2% 4.8%Engineering 1.4% 4.1% 10.6%Physical and life sciences 1.5% 5.7% 7.4%

*Bachelor's degree and above; Source: Statistics Canada Censuses of Population, National Household Survey

TABLE 3: OVER AND UNDERREPRESENTATION OF ABORIGINAL UNIVERSITY DEGREE HOLDERS*% of degree holders by field of study

44

The previous table from TD Bank (2013b) showed that Aboriginal populations were

overrepresented in "area, ethnic, cultural, gender, and group studies." Although the area is more

common among Aboriginals compared to Non-Aboriginals, the broader field in which this area

is situated is not the most popular among Aboriginals. This finding counters stereotypical beliefs

that Aboriginal students are oriented mainly toward First Nations Studies in PSE.

Figure 30 illustrates the distributions of the major field of study among Non-Aboriginals

for the years 2006 and 2011. The distributions in both years are remarkably parallel. Non-

Aboriginal PSE graduates share the same three most popular fields of study as those noted above

for Aboriginal PSE graduates. Table 9 lists the top six major fields of study between Aboriginal

and Non-Aboriginal populations. The majors are the same, albeit in somewhat different order.

Personal, protective, and transportation services field is ranked fourth for Aboriginals, whereas it

is ranked sixth for Non-Aboriginals. It would be somewhat misleading to focus only on the top

five fields considering this similarity.

Figure 29 Major Field of Study of PSE among Aboriginals, 25-64 years, 2006-2011, percentages

SOURCES: Statistics Canada (2006a, 2011c)

1%

3%

3%

3%

4%

9%

7% 11%

14%

22%

23%

1%

3%

3%

3%

4%

6%

7%

11%

16%

22%

23%

physical & life sciences & technologies visual & performing arts, & comm.

agricul., natural resources, & conservation math, computer, & info sciences

humanities social & behavioural sciences & law

education personal, protective, & transportation

health & related fields business, management, & public admin.

architecture, engin., & related

2011

2006

45

Figure 30 Major Field of Study of PSE of Non-Aboriginals 25-64 years, 2006-2011, percentages

SOURCES: Statistics Canada (2006a, 2011c) Reflections on Education and Labour Force Participation

This paper tells a story about successes and challenges. There have been promising

developments in educational attainment for the Aboriginal population. A greater number of

Aboriginals attained PSE compared to previous times and this improvement is projected to

continue. Greater growth in PSE is possible if more individuals complete high school.

College attainment has been the most common PSE level for the Aboriginal population.

Achievement in absolute numbers has increased, university degrees are also on the rise. PSE

attainment among Non-Aboriginals is also increasing quickly. Accordingly, the difference

between the populations is not narrowing and is projected to worsen overall without intervention.

That is being driven by particular issues related to status, “on reserve” and Inuit populations.

There is no reason we can think of to assume that Aboriginal peoples in Canada could not

achieve the same levels of educational attainment if conditions were right.

How do we move forward to make improvements? First and foremost it should be very

clear that when we think about policies and best practices, and how we can make things work

2%

4%

3%

5%

5%

6%

7%

10%

13%

22%

22%

2%

4%

4%

5%

5%

6%

7%

11%

14%

22%

22%

agricult., natural resources, &

visual & performing arts, & comm.

physical & life sciences & technologies

math, computer, & info sciences

humanities

personal, protective, & transportation

education

social & behavioural sciences & law

health & related fields

business, management, & public admin.

architecture, engin., & related

2011

2006

46

better, we have to start with an understanding that it is not a homogenous policy issue.

Indigenous peoples differ by language, location, nation, custom and experience. It is a

heterogeneous group with some very different challenges and some common challenges. What is

happening in urban centres for Metis peoples is relatively more successful to date than what has

been developing in the Arctic for Inuit, for example. We will have to engage Indigenous peoples

and communities to identify the particular issues so we can work together to craft policies.

Secondly, education is not an end in itself. We learn from formal institutions and our

family, elders and mentors throughout our lives. However, when it comes to attending school

and all that entails, we want to put that learning to good use. In a way people are drawn to

engage in educational processes because they see a value in doing so. For a young person in

Sweetgrass Saskatchewan or Nunavut to choose to stay in school they need know there is a

purpose. That is one of the elephants in the room. Poor employment opportunities, the lack of

economic development and other related conditions will discourage high school completion and

dissuade youth from continuing to PSE.

Another issue related to labour force involvement relates to the types of jobs available.

The concentration of Aboriginal peoples in “public sector jobs” and in “public sector training” is

an important discussion. There is a specific issue here related to on reserve populations and

status populations. Many of the so-called “public sector” jobs are really artifacts of the Indian

Act and are not tied to building value in the community.

We (a large team) did a study of Community Well-being and developed the Community

Well-being Index which is now used extensively by government to gauge the well-being for

Indigenous communities in Canada ( see White, Beavon, & Spence, 2007). More recently team

members also looked at jobs that exist in those communities that are tied to transfer payments

47

and those that are not. When we stripped away the jobs related to transfer payments we found

there is a very high correlation between community well-being and number of jobs related to

non-Indian Act generated employment. Figure 31 illustrates these findings. You can see that as

the number of non-transfer payment based jobs goes up the well-being of the communities goes

up as well.

The lesson here is that employment created through development and more permanent

public sector involvement (teacher, nurse and so on) is related to the development of community

well-being.

Figure 31 CWB Index by Self-Reliance Index for All Aboriginal Communities

SOURCE: Beavon, Dan “ Presentation to the APRC working group Western University 2010.

Finally, it has been observed that Indigenous youth (and older persons as well) are more

likely to be less mobile, preferring to stay close to family and community for long-term

employment. This poses other issues when local areas have little opportunity. For example, if we

think about the North, perhaps we need better impact and benefit agreements that will actually

lead to the creation of stable development and the resulting jobs. These would be the precursor to

48

keeping people in school and drawing them into PSE. If we think about the data we can see

patterns to lower attainment. These patterns can give us indications about where opportunities

are relatively lacking. It can give us ideas about where to focus energies.

Mendelson noted in his 2006 study that the key to moving forward is high school

completion. Perhaps we also have to look at targeting based on where those completion rates are

stubbornly lower.

The legacy of colonialism is a very critical issue and we need to come to a better

understanding about how the residential school system has impacted peoples and how we can

build better educational experiences that will begin to repair that legacy.

We look forward to engaging in a discussion that will help develop ideas about how to move

forward.

References

Mendelson, M. (2006). Aboriginal Peoples and Postsecondary Education. Ottawa: Caledon

Institute of Social Policy. Statistics Canada. (1996). Census of Population, 1996. Table 94F0009XDB96001. Statistics Canada. (2001a). 2001Census. Catalogue Number 99-012-X2001042 Statistics Canada. (2001b). 2001Census. Catalogue Number 97F0011XCB2001058. Ottawa. Statistics Canada. (2006a). 2006 Census. Catalogue Number 97-560-XCB2006028. Ottawa. Statistics Canada. (2006b). Chart 4: Provincial/territorial distribution of Aboriginal identity

population, 2006. Retrieved on September 10, 2013 from http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/89-645-x/2010001/c-g/c-g004-eng.htm

Statistics Canada. (2006c). 2006 Census. Catalogue Number 97-560-XCB2006038. Statistics Canada. (2011a). 2011 National Household Survey. Statistics Canada Catalogue no.

99-012-X2011044. Ottawa. Statistics Canada. (2011b). National Household Survey Dictionary. Statistics Canada Catalogue

no. 99-000-XWE. Ottawa. Statistics Canada. (2011c). 2011 National Household Survey. Statistics Canada Catalogue

Number 99-012-X2011046. Ottawa.

49

Statistics Canada. (2011d). National Household Survey Users Guide. Statistics Canada Catalogue Number 99-001-x2011001. Ottawa.

TD Bank. (2013a). Jobs in Canada: Where, What and for Whom? Unpublished. TD Bank. (2013b). Employment and Education among Aboriginal Peoples: A New Perspective

from the 2011 NHS. Unpublished White, J.P., Beavon, D., & Spence, N. (2007). Aboriginal Well-Being: Canada's Continuing

Challenge. Toronto, Ontario: Thompson Educational Publishing. White , Jerry, Julie Peters,Dan Beavon and Nick Spence. Aboriginal Education: Current Crisis Future Alternatives. Thompson Educational Publishing 2009.

50

Appendix Table A.1 Highest Educational Attainment for Non-Aboriginal Populations, 25-64 years, 1996-2011, absolute numbers

1996 2001 2006 2011

Non-Aboriginals


High school 4679190 3797050 4037780 4117820






Total 15153640 15844705 16826695 17712540 SOURCES: Statistics Canada (1996, 2001a, 2006a, 2011a)

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Table A.2 Proportional Increases of PSE for Aboriginals, 25-64 years, 1996-2011 1996-2001 2001-2006 2006-2011

PSE

increase 71925 76505 34740

percentage points gained 73 45 14


increase 53260 10800 -13015

percentage points gained 333 16 -16

College

increase -140 37110 21120


University below bachelor

increase n/a 11925 3555

percentage points gained n/a 147 18

University

increase 10680 16670 23085

percentage points gained 68 63 54 SOURCES: Statistics Canada (1996, 2001a, 2006a, 2011a) NOTES: Proportional gains calculated for this table control for the changing population over time. The formula takes the difference, in absolute numbers, between the two year points (e.g. 1996 and 2001) as the numerator over the previous year's population (the denominator). For instance, the PSE change from 1996 (98595) to 2001 (170520) was an increase of 71925; dividing (71925) by (98595) gives us the proportional gain of 0.729, which is then turned into a percentage.

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Table A.3 Proportional Gain of PSE for Non-Aboriginals, 25-64 years, 1996-2011 1996-2001 2001-2006 2006-2011

PSE

increase 2039385 1773670 712840

percentage points gain 31 21 7


increase 1382995 48065 -297270


College

increase -404755 578365 239050


University

increase 600070 761635 746595

percentage points gained 23 24 19 SOURCES: Statistics Canada (1996, 2001a, 2006a, 2011a)

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Table A.4 Aboriginal Highest Educational Attainment, Provinces and Territories, 25-64 years, 2011, percentages

Location < HS HS PSE Total (N)

NS 26 22 53 16875

Nfld & Labrador 33 17 50 18905

ON 28 25 48 155760

QUE 37 17 46 73415

NB 31 24 45 11530

PEI 35 21 43 1090

BC 32 25 43 114510

Yukon 40 20 40 3810

AB 37 23 40 102290

SK 39 24 37 66015

MB 43 23 34 86635

NWT 52 17 31 9680

Nunavut 73 12 15 10865 SOURCES: Statistics Canada (2011a)

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Table A.5 Highest Educational Attainment by Status, 25-64 years, 1996-2011, absolute numbers 1996 2001 2006 2011

Status Aboriginals


High school 53965 55580 55060 68735






Total 207930 247720 286580 321820



High school 37300 45780 63900 84105






Total 138560 195885 268840 349555 SOURCES: Statistics Canada (1996, 2001b, 2006c, 2011a)

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Table A.6 Highest Educational Attainment by On/Off Reserve, 25-64 years, 1996-2011, absolute numbers

1996 2001 2006 2011

On Reserve Aboriginals


High school 20005 22900 19810 25515



College or other non-university

15180 13590 18620 17255


n/a 2105 5070 4690

University at bachelor or above

2520 3985 5735 6665

Total 92340 118415 131750 140270

Off Reserve Aboriginals


High school 71260 78465 99150 127325



College or other non-university

51760 53215 85285 107770


n/a 6020 14975 18920

University at bachelor or above

13140 22355 37275 59425

Total 254150 325185 423655 531110 SOURCES: Statistics Canada (1996, 2001a, 2006a, 2011a)

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Table A.7 Highest Educational Attainment by Aboriginal Identity, 25-64 years, 1996-2011, absolute numbers

1996 2001 2006 2011

First Nations


High school 62560 60605 63590 86310

Post-Secondary Education (PSE) 65000 97845 131910 148010





Total number (N) 236505 267400 316425 389210

Inuit


High school 3075 3635 2645 3965






Total number (N) 15380 17940 20375 24910

Métis


High school 26700 33655 48510 57955






Total number (N) 237710 200120 142835 97635


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Table A.8 Major Field of Study of PSE (2011) Aboriginal Identity v. Non-Aboriginal Identity, 25-64 years, absolute numbers

Major field of study Aboriginal Non-Aboriginal

education 23220 801890

visual & performing arts, & communication technologies

8660 418760

humanities 11065 601885

social & behavioural sciences & law 18830 1203600

business, management, & public administration 68770 2540435

physical & life sciences & technologies 4650 417950

mathematics, computer, & information sciences 9705 531195

architecture, engineering, & related technologies 72280 2429550

agriculture, natural resources, & conservation 9115 257240

health & related fields 49135 1583690

personal, protective, & transportation services 35450 669385

other 120 2350

Total 310880 11455580 SOURCES: Statistics Canada (1996, 2001a, 2006a, 2011a) Note: The total populations do not match populations recorded in earlier tables. The data set for major field of study did not allow the option to control for whether one had high school level of education. Accordingly, this table over-estimates PSE attainment for both populations.

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