Final October 4th Presentation.pptx [Read-Only] · Microsoft PowerPoint - Final October 4th...

10/4/2017

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The Current Performance and Near-Term Outlook for the U.S. and Washington Region’s Economies

Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D.The Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor

Director, The Stephen S. Fuller InstituteSchar School of Policy and Government

George Mason UniversityOctober 4, 2017

-4-3-2-1012345

Washington

U.S.

U.S. GDP and Washington MSA GRP 2007 – 2015 – 2021(Baseline Forecast, Annual % Change)(%)Forecast

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Economics, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU

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How is the U.S. economy performing and what is the outlook for 2018?

05

10152025303540

0Q 2Q 4Q 6Q 8Q 10Q 12Q 14Q 16Q 18Q 20Q 22Q 24Q 26Q 28Q 30Q 32Q

% Chan

ge in G

DP*

Quarters After Trough

1982-Q31991-Q12009-Q22001-Q4**

Recession Recovery Patterns of GDPPast Four Recessions

*in 1992 or 2009 Chained Dollars** Quarters 26+ include the 2009 RecessionSources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU

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(25.0) (20.0) (15.0) (10.0) (5.0)

- 5.0

10.0 15.0

U.S. Leading IndexMonth-Over-Year Percent Change

Sources: The Conference Board, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU

(10.0) (8.0) (6.0) (4.0) (2.0)

- 2.0 4.0

U.S. Coincident IndexMonth-Over-Year Percent Change


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-8,000-6,000-4,000-2,000

02,0004,0006,000

U.S. Annual Change in Payroll JobsMonth-Over-The-Year

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU

(000s) Aug = +2.1 M

-690

6192

68264

151142

333-29

2607

477

(600) (400) (200) - 200 400 600 800Information

Federal Govt.Transp. & Util.Other Services

Wlse TradeConstruction

FinancialManufacturing

Leisure & Hosp.Retail Trade

State & Local GovtProf. & Bus. Svcs

Educ & Health Svcs

U.S. Payroll Job Change by SectorAugust 2016 – August 2017Ranked by Size in 2016 (000s) Total = +2,100


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456789

1011

U.S. Unemployment RateAugust 2009 – August 2017

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), IHS Economics (September 2017), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU

%IHS Forecast17 – 4.418 – 4.119 – 4.020 – 4.121 – 4.2

Aug 17 = 4.4%

020406080

100120

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Brent Crude Spot Price$ per barrel

Sources: IHS Economics (September 2017), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU

($/barrel)Forecast

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- 20 40 60 80

100 120 140 160

Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17

Expectations

Present

U.S. Consumer ConfidenceSeptember 2010 – September 2017


-1012345

U.S. Consumer PricesPercent Change, 2001 - 2021

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Economics (September 2017), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU

(%)Forecast

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012345678

30-Yr

10-YrTreasuryFed

U.S. Interest RatesAverage Annual, 2001 - 2021

Sources: IHS Economics (September 2017), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU

(%)Forecast

300350400450500550600650

3,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,500

U.S. New and Existing Home Sales

Existing (Left Axis)

New (Right Axis)

(000s) (000s)

Sources: U.S. Census (New), National Association of Realtors (Existing), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU

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3.13.8 3.5 3.0

2.2

-0.3-1.6

1.9 2.31.5 1.5

2.93.6

2.7 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.5

-2-1012345

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

U.S. Growth in Total Consumption OutlaysForecast

(%)

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Economics (September 2017), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU

-10-8-6-4-20246

U.S. Gross Domestic ProductQuarterly Change: 2007 – 2018%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Forecast

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Economics (September 2017), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU

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How is the Washington Region’s economy currently performing?

-60-40-20

020406080

100

Annual Job Change, 2002-2017Washington Region


2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Annual Change Annual Month-Over-Year Change(000s) Aug 17 = +67.6

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0255075

100125150

15 Largest U.S. Job MarketsJob Change: August 2016 – August 2017(000s)

Washington: +67,600


0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%

15 Largest U.S. Job MarketsJob Change: August 2016 – August 2017Washington: +2.1%


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1-1

4-3

60

34

145

-120

17

-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30Manufacturing

Wholesale TradeTransportation & Utilities

InformationConstruction

Financial ActivitiesOther Services

Retail TradeLeisure & Hospitality

State & Local GovtFederal Govt

Edu.& Health ServicesProf. & Business Services

Washington MSA Job Change by Sector August 2016 – August 2017Ranked by Size in 2016 (000s) Total = 67,600

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU

-20-15-10-505

10152025 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services & Management Administrative & Waste Management

Professional and Business Services JobsWashington MSAAnnual Month Over-the-Year(000s)


Aug 17 Total = 762.7

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-10-505

10152025 Hospitals Ambulatory Health Care, Nursing & Residential Care Educational Services

Education and Health Services JobsWashington MSAAnnual Month Over-the-Year(000s)



-20-15-10-505

10152025

Federal Government JobsWashington MSA


2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Annual Change Annual Month-Over-Year Change(000s) Aug 17 Total = 365.9

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-10-505

101520 Accommodation Food Services & Drinking Places Entertainment

Leisure and Hospitality Services JobsWashington MSAAnnual Month Over-the-Year(000s)



-30-20-10

0102030405060

District of ColumbiaAnnual Job Change, 2002-2017


2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Annual Change Annual Month-Over-Year Change(000s) Aug 17 = +15.0

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0.00.4

-0.20.3

-0.3-0.1

-0.41.5

-0.55.6

6.73.0

-1.0

-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10Manufacturing

Transportation & UtilitiesWholesale Trade

ConstructionInformation

Retail TradeFinancial ActivitiesState & Local Govt

Other ServicesLeisure & Hospitality

Edu. & Health ServicesProf. & Business Services

Federal Govt

District of Columbia Job Change by Sector August 2016 – August 2017Ranked by Size in 2016 (000s) Total = 15,000


-30-20-10

0102030405060

Suburban Maryland Annual Job Change, 2002-2017


Annual Change Annual Month-Over-Year Change(000s) Aug 17 = +21.22012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

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-0.10.0

-0.40.20.3

-0.44.0

0.37.7

0.32.2

5.91.2

-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10Information

Transportation & UtilitiesWholesale Trade

ManufacturingOther Services

Financial ActivitiesConstructionFederal Govt

Leisure & HospitalityRetail Trade

Edu. & Health ServicesState & Local Govt

Prof.& Business Services

Suburban Maryland Job Change by Sector August 2016 – August 2017Ranked by Size in 2016 (000s) Total = 21,200


-30-20-10

0102030405060

Northern VirginiaAnnual Job Change, 2002-2017


Annual Change Annual Month-Over-Year Change(000s) Aug 17 = +18.62012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

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-0.11.01.1

-3.63.2

2.11.4

-0.12.2

-1.0-3.2

5.210.4

-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20Manufacturing

Wholesale TradeTransportation & Utilities

InformationConstruction

Financial ActivitiesOther Services

Federal GovtRetail Trade

Leisure & HospitalityState & Local Govt

Edu. & Health ServicesProf. & Business Services

Northern Virginia Job Change by Sector August 2016 – August 2017Ranked by Size in 2016 (000s) Total = 18,600


02468

1012

6.6 – DC4.4 – U.S.3.7 – MSA3.6 – SMD3.2 – NVA

Washington Metropolitan AreaUnemployment Rates By Sub-State Area, 2010-2017

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (US: Seasonally Adjusted; MSA: Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU

(%)

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Is the Washington Region’s economy becoming more diversified? Roadmap Update

AdvocacyServices Information &

Communications Technology Services

Science &Security TechnologyServices

Bio & HealthTechnology ServicesBusiness &

Financial Services

Media & Information

Services

Business & Leisure Travel Services

The Washington Region’s Advanced Industrial Clusters

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% ChangeClusters 4.0%Non-Cluster, Private 6.2%Government 3.0%Total Jobs 5.0%

Employment in the Advanced Industrial ClustersMarch 2014 – March 2017 Change

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (QCEW), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU

% ChangeClusters 4.0%Non-Cluster, Private 6.2%Government 3.0%Total Jobs 5.0%Clusters, U.S. 8.0%

Employment in the Advanced Industrial ClustersMarch 2014 – March 2017 Change


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1.3% 1.6%

-0.6% -1.4%

6.9%

1.6%3.1%

1.3%

3.6% 3.6%

0.9%

-0.7%

6.5%

1.2%2.6% 2.6%

-2%0%2%4%6%8%

Info. Comm.Tech. BusinessServices Science &Security Tech. Media & Info. Bio. & HealthTech. Advocacy Business &Leisure Travel All Clusters

Washington U.S.

Underperforming the Nation Outperforming the Nation

Growth Rates of the Washington Region’sAdvanced Industrial ClustersMarch 2014 to March 2017, Annualized Growth


717,400 726,700

741,800

713,200

732,000

756,700 770,300

710,000 720,000 730,000 740,000 750,000 760,000 770,000 780,000

Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17

Washington Region U.S. Growth Path

28,450 jobs

Comparative Cluster Performances: Washington Region and the U.S.

29,950 jobs


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What is the Washington Region’s economic near-term outlook?

Employment Change by Sub-State AreaBaseline Forecast (000s)2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

D.C. 5.2 15.9 13.0 10.4 9.2 8.1 6.2 5.5 Sub. MD 10.2 12.5 14.4 22.8 16.6 16.2 13.1 12.3No. VA 0.8 29.8 31.0 19.8 20.4 20.8 15.1 13.0REGION 18.6 57.7 55.6 53.0 46.2 45.1 34.4 30.8

Source: BLS, IHS Economics, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU (forecast as of September 2017)NOTE: The regional totals include Jefferson, WV.

Average Annual Change 1990-2010 = 36,300

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-2-1012345

NoVAWMSASub MDDC

Washington MSA and Sub-State AreasEconomic Outlook (GRP), 2007-2021(Baseline Forecast, Annual % Change)(%)Forecast

Sources: The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU

-4-3-2-1012345

Washington

U.S.

U.S. GDP and Washington MSA GRP 2007 – 2015 – 2021(Baseline Forecast, Annual % Change)(%)Forecast

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Economics, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU

10/4/2017

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Thank You & QuestionsFor monthly reports on the Washington region’s economic performance go to:

sfullerinstitute.gmu.edu

Final October 4th Presentation.pptx [Read-Only] · Microsoft PowerPoint - Final October 4th...

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