Final Clean Tech Outlook Panel Presentation -...
Transcript of Final Clean Tech Outlook Panel Presentation -...
Welcome
A Clean Technology Outlook Panel DiscussionHosted by Robert W. Baird & Co. osted by obe t a d & CoDecember 3, 2010
Panel Participants
Christine TezakSenior Research Analyst– Energy & Environmental Policy, Baird Research
Christine is Baird’s senior analyst in Energy & Environmental Policy Research. Prior to joining Baird in 2009, she was a senior vice president Electricity Natural Gas and Environmental Policy research at Stanford Group Company and asenior vice president, Electricity, Natural Gas and Environmental Policy research, at Stanford Group Company and a principal, Washington Research Group, at Schwab Capital Markets. Also, she was a research associate at HSBC Securities/Washington Analysis corporation covering the water industry and at NatWest Securities/Washington Analysis Corporation covering the environment and agribusiness. Christine has a BA in Russian Language from Boston College and an MBA in Finance from George Washington University.
J. Michael Horwitz, Jr.Senior Research Analyst – Clean Technology, Baird Research
Michael is Baird’s senior analyst covering Clean Technology. Prior to joining Baird in 2009, he was managing director and head of clean technology research at Sanford Group Company, senior research analyst in clean technology at Pacific Growth Equities LLC and also worked at North Paint Partners Jackson Square Partners Hilspen Capital ManagementGrowth Equities, LLC, and also worked at North Paint Partners, Jackson Square Partners, Hilspen Capital Management, and Alex Brown & Sons, all in California. Michael received a BS in Financial Economics and a BA in Philosophy at Southern Methodist University.
Gary D. VollenI t t B k Cl T h l B i d I t t B kiInvestment Banker – Clean Technology, Baird Investment Banking
Gary is a senior investment banking professional with 25 years experience and leads Baird’s effort to establish relationships with and offer Baird’s advisory services to clean technology companies, private equity and venture capital firms that invest in the sector. Gary is a member of the Advisory Board for the Clean Technology Investor Summit and was a member of San Francisco’s Clean Tech Advisory Council. Prior to joining Baird, Gary led Stanford Group C l h b k l h d d f T h l
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Company’s clean tech investment banking practice. Previously, he was a Managing Director and Head of Technology Investment Banking at Pacific Growth Equities. Preceding that, Gary co-founded Prometheus Advisors, a boutique investment bank focused on providing M&A advisory services to technology companies. Gary received an MBA from the Anderson School of Management at UCLA and a BS from the University of California, Berkeley.
Overview of Baird
1919A Comprehensive Wealth Management Firm
Key Statistics
Founded in Milwaukee
2004Baird becomes employee-owned
Asset
CapitalMarkets
PrivateW lth$79 billion
Assets under management
$718 million2009 Revenue
AssetManagementWealth
Management
Baird’s International Presence2,500Employees
100+Office locations*
United States Europe Asia
Office locations
7Number of consecutive years Baird has been recognized as one of the FORTUNE 100 Best
3
_____________________Note: As of December 3, 2010.
• Baird and its operating affiliates have offices in the United States, Europe and Asia. Robert W. Baird Ltd. and Baird Capital Partners Europ aere authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority.
one of the FORTUNE 100 Best Companies to Work For ®
Equity Research, Sales & Trading
Equity Research
Award-winning small-cap and mid-cap
Coordinated capital markets expertise allows us to better serve our clients.
Award winning small cap and mid cap research (1)
More than 600 stocks under coverage
Sales & Trading427
475506 497
535
616650
500
600
700
ed
Coverage Growth 2000-2010
Proprietary investment ideas combined with quality execution
Best execution
15th consecutive year of record revenues
282331
365403
427
100
200
300
400
Co
mp
an
ies
Co
vere
15 consecutive year of record revenues0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010e
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_____________________Note: As of December 3, 2010.(1) Integrity Research Associates – U.S. Small Cap Research, May 2010. Surveys conducted with 141 portfolio managers and analysts from U.S. mutual funds, pension funds and hedge funds.
Investment Banking
Comprehensive M&A advisory and capital raising capabilitiesKey Statistics
173Investment banking professionals
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M&A Capabilities Market insight through dedicated industry teams
Execution excellence through senior level attention
Capital Markets Highlights Middle Market Bank of the
Year – 2007
Middle Market Deal Awards Office locations
More than $40 billionM&A advisory value since 2000
$72 billi
International access through coordinated banking expertise across the globe
Unique perspective through a balanced mix of buy-side and sell-side experience
Middle Market Deal Awards – 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009
Manufacturing Sector Adviser of the Year – 2008, 2009 d 2010$72 billion
Equity raised since 20002009 and 2010
United States AsiaEurope
International Investment Banking PresenceMilwaukeeChicago London ShanghaiFrankfurt
United States AsiaEurope
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Washington DCAtlanta Boston TampaPalo AltoCharlotte San Francisco St. Louis_____________________Note: As of November 2, 2010.
Overview of Post-Election Regulatory & Legislative LandscapeChristi Tezak, Director and Senior Research Analyst
112th Congress = fiscal stewardship
• Republican House will scrutinize incentives given to renewable and alternative energy with an eye toward streamlining
• Most likely cost offset for programs will be changes to tax preferences for major oil and gas companies
New regulations for the EPA will be proposed or finalized in early 2011gu a o o b p opo d o a d a y 0
• Retirement of old coal-powered plants will make way for new natural gas and renewable generation
• Gridlock may prevent Congress from doing much to prevent these
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regulations
Overview of Post-Election Regulatory & Legislative LandscapeChange in leadership on House Energy & Commerce
bli ill d l h i i i i f i• Republicans will not undo every clean tech initiative of prior House majority
• E&C Committee has other priorities with jurisdiction over efforts to revise recently passed health care overhaul and efforts to revise recently passed health care overhaul and financial services laws
• Programs with bipartisan agreement such as initiatives in the vehicle/fuel industries may be the first to gain constructive vehicle/fuel industries may be the first to gain constructive bipartisan attention
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Financial and Investment Trends
Michael Horwitz, Managing Director and Senior Research AnalystAnalyst
Macroeconomic factors have hit Clean Tech harder than other sectors; financial performance continues to lag broader market
• High capital requirements combined with unavailability of economically viable capital sources
• Global economic uncertainty in regions where Clean Tech has most exposure (i e Europe)exposure (i.e. Europe)
• Depressed natural gas prices, commodities’ impact on electricity
• Uncertainty related to future of global economic subsidies, incentives
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incentives
Financial and Investment Trends
2011 = the year to liquefy• Investors will need to exitInvestors will need to exit• Healthy split betweens IPOs and M&A
Two key growth areas in 2011: solar and smart grid• SolarSolar
• Supply and demand: U.S. has an opportunity to pick up falling demand in Europe
• Successful companies will be ones that address either/both side of that equation by:that equation by:
• Bring down their costs to capture more market share • Work closely with their customers to implement solutions• Are incrementally more competitive than their peers –
b d l ll b l
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business models will be extremely important.
Financial and Investment Trends
Smart Grid• More application focused technology less hardware• More application-focused technology, less hardware• Government stimulus will start having measureable effects; shed light
on technology challenges as the U.S. “smartens” the grid• Traditional metering companies will be challenged by small, g p g y ,
entrepreneurial startups• Increased competition from the mega-caps (Google, Microsoft, Cisco)
which are developing strategies.
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Outlook for Transaction Activity –Consolidation, IPOsGary Vollen, Managing Director – Investment Banking
Clean Tech IPO market will gain momentum in 2011
• Extended rough patch for IPOs across the board; Clean Tech no exception
• Uptick in activity since Labor Day due to consistent equity fund inflows very positive
• Examples: Amyris, Elster Group
• Pent-up supply of high-quality IPO candidates for 2011
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Equity Market Performance Since 2008
While the broader equity markets recouped the substantial losses from 2008 in 2009, the Clean Technology sector continues to lag
NASDAQ S&P 500R ll 2000 D J I d t i l A Wild Hill Cl E (ECO)
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
(4.4%)NASDAQ(4.3%)Russell 2000
NASDAQ S&P 500Russell 2000 Dow Jones Industrial Average WilderHill Clean Energy (ECO)
(16 4%)
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%(19.0%)S&P 500
(16.4%)DJIA
-70.0%
-60.0%
-50.0%
(65.3%)ECO
Performance
-100.0%
-90.0%
-80.0%
Performance2008 2009 2010 YTD
NASDAQ (39.6% ) 39.0% 11.7%Russell 2000 (33.7% ) 23.6% 17.2%S&P 500 (37.6% ) 19.7% 6.7%Dow Jones Industrial Average (32.7% ) 15.4% 6.4%Wilderhill Clean Energy (ECO) (69.8% ) 21.6% (10.1% )
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1/1/2008 6/25/2008 12/19/2008 6/14/2009 12/7/2009 6/2/2010 11/26/2010
_____________________Source: Factset as of November 26, 2010.Note: Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Equity Mutual Fund Flow Activity
$4
Excluding ETFs, there have been $9.3 billion of inflows since the week ended
Weekly Equity Fund Flows Since the Beginning of 2009
($ in billions)
$2
$4 since the week ended October 15th
These were the first consecutive weeks of inflows greater than $1 0
Market “Flash Crash”
($2)
$0
ns)
inflows greater than $1.0 billion since July 2009
This is an encouraging data point for any Company looking to access the equity
($6)
($4)($ B
illiolooking to access the equity
capital markets
($8)
($6)
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($10)Jan-09 Feb-09 Apr-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10
_____________________Source: AMG Data Services. Excludes ETFs.
Nov-10
IPO Market Review
With meaningful cash being put to work in the equity markets and a renewed appetite for risk-taking, the IPO market has become more attractive post-Labor Day
IPO Pricings by Month
19 2020
25Monthly Average ‘06 – ‘07AboveWithinBelow
IPO Pricing vs. Filing Range
33%17% 14% 6%
33%
0%25%
5%20%
100%
117 7 7
14 1311 11
912
8
0
5
10
15
20
43% 43%57%
33%
67%
25%37%
25%
40% 43%37%
33%
33%
50%
58%55%
33%
25%
50%
75%
0Nov'09
Dec'09
Jan'10
Feb'10
Mar'10
Apr'10
May'10
Jun'10
Jul'10
Aug'10
Sept'10
Oct.'10
Nov.'10
25% 25%0%
Q4 '09 Q1 '10 Q2 '10 Jul '10 Aug '10 Sept '10 Oct '10 Nov '10
% of IPOs Trading Above Offer (1) 50.0% 46.4% 45.7% 88.9% 66.7% 75.0% 68.4% 70.0%
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_____________________Source: Dealogic and FactSet. As of November 26, 2010.(1) Represents the number of IPOs trading above offer price for the period.
Clean Tech IPOs
Clean Tech IPOs (2009 – 2010)
Clean Tech IPO Performance (Offer to Current)
147%150%
200%
250%
(25%) (22%)
19% 27% 30%
90%109%
(50%)
0%
50%
100%
150%
15_____________________Source: Dealogic. As of November 26, 2010.
(33%) (25%) (22%)(50%)
Cleantech Venture Capital Activity
$8.0225250s
Tota
Average Investment Size2005: $5.6 million2006: $12.3 million2007: $16.1 million2008: $22 2 million
86 98115 123 120 124 114 122 117 115
158140 146 153
195169 165 180 186
219241
200 205
$2.0$3.0$4.0$5.0$6.0$7.0
5075
100125150175200225
umbe
r of I
nves
tmen
ts al Investment Value (
2008: $22.2 million2009: $21.1 million
2010: $19.7 million
$0.0$1.0
02550
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
Nu($bn)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Number of Investments by Industry Since 2005 Number of Investments by Region Since 2005
Australia2%
Other1%
Agriculture4.6%
Air & Environment
4.4%
Energy Efficiency
14.1%Water & Wastewater
5 9% USA48%
Asia9%
Canada6%
Middle East3%
Energy Generation
40.1%
ManufacturingMaterials
Recycling & Waste4.5%
Transportation5.5%
5.9%
16_____________________Source: Cleantech Group. As of November 28, 2010.
Europe31%
Energy Infrastructure
4.1%Energy Storage
8.4%
Manufacturing3.4%5.0%
Cleantech M&A Activity
137 128 $10 0$12.0$14.0
125
150
ctio
nsTotal Tran
14 23 19
5667
8266 65
30
89
35
80
30
68
116 10783
106 102115
104
$0.0$2.0$4.0$6.0$8.0$10.0
0
25
50
75
100
Num
ber o
f Tra
nsa nsaction Value ($bn)$0.00
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
Number of Acquisitions by Industry Since 2005 Number of Acquisitions by Region Since 2005
)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
USA
Other3%
Asia9%
Other5%
Agriculture2% Air &
Environment6%
Energy Materials
2%
Recycling & Waste11%
Transportation2%
Water & Wastewater
8%
USA45%
CA t li
Europe31%
gyEfficiency
9%
Energy Energy
Infrastructure3%
Energy Storage3%
Manufacturing2%
2%
17_____________________Source: Cleantech Group. As of November 28, 2010.
Canada9%
Australia3%
Generation48%
3%
Select Recent Cleantech Buyers
Cleantech Utilities / IPPs
TechnologyIndustrial / Other
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Questions and Answers
Media Information Contacts:
Amy Nutter or Eileen Force, Baird(414) [email protected] or [email protected]
Jody Lowe, Lowe Communications(414) [email protected]@ameritech.net
Mike MacMillan, MacMillan Communications(212) 473-4442
ik @ ill
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Disclaimers
This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any company, industry or security. The opinions expressed here reflect our judgment at this date and are subject to change. The information has been obtained from sources we consider to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee the accuracy.ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON COMPANIES MENTIONED HEREIN IS AVAILABLE UPON REQUESTThe NASDAQ index is a market-capitalization weighted index of the more than 3 000 common equities listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange The The NASDAQ index is a market capitalization weighted index of the more than 3,000 common equities listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. The types of securities in the index include American depositary receipts, common stocks, real estate investment trusts (REITs) and tracking stocks. The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which represent approximately 8% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000® Index. A small-cap index. The Dow Jones Composite Average Index is computed from the stock prices of 30 of the largest and most widely held public companies in the United States. The S&P 500 Index is a representative sample of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. Considered a large-cap index. The WilderHill Clean Energy index represents businesses that stand to benefit substantially from a societal transition toward use of cleaner energy and conservation. Stocks and sector weightings within the ECO Index are based on their significance for clean energy, technological influence and relevance to preventing pollution in the first place. Direct investment in indices is not available. Baird is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services license. Baird is regulated by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission, FINRA, and various other self-regulatory organizations and those laws and regulations may differ from Australian laws. This report has been prepared in accordance with the laws and regulations governing United States broker-dealers and not Australian laws.Copyright 2011 Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated. . No part of this publication may be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means without our prior written approval. However, you may download one copy of the information for your personal, non-commercial viewing only, provided that you do not remove or alter any trade mark, copyright or other proprietary notice.OTHER DISCLOSURESUK disclosure requirements for the purpose of distributing this research into the UK and other countries for which Robert W Baird Limited holds an ISD passport.This report is for distribution into the United Kingdom only to persons who fall within Article 19 or Article 49(2) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (financial promotion) order 2001 being persons who are investment professionals and may not be distributed to private clients. Issued in the United Kingdom by Robert W Baird Limited, which has offices at Mint House 77 Mansell Street, London, E1 8AF, and is a company authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. For the purposes of the Financial Services Authority requirements, this investment research report is classified as objective.Robert W Baird Limited ("RWBL") is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services license RWBL is regulated by the Financial
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Robert W Baird Limited ( RWBL ) is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services license. RWBL is regulated by the Financial Services Authority ("FSA") under UK laws and those laws may differ from Australian laws. This document has been prepared in accordance with FSA requirements and not Australian laws.