FIELD OPS AND GOTV: Where Elections Are Won And Lost
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Transcript of FIELD OPS AND GOTV: Where Elections Are Won And Lost
EVERY VOTE COUNTS
25,000 Ballots Cast17 Vote Win Margin
.00068 %
WHAT IS A FIELD PLAN
• Blueprint to Victory• Contains your campaign’s Goals, Strategies,
Tactics, Timelines, and Benchmarks to achieve them.
• Person to Person Contact – Delivering message to targeted voters – Tactics: Calls, Canvassing, Lit drops, Mail
BUILD YOUR GRASSROOTS ARMY!!
Win Number and Vote GoalSTEP 1: Project Turnout
% Turnout in Last Election(s) X # of Reg Voters
STEP 2: Setting GoalsWin #: (Proj. Turnout / 2) + 1Vote Goal: Proj Turnout x.52
STEP 3: WRITE EVERYTHING DOWN.
Targeting Your Resources
Why?– Limited People, Money & Time– Getting right message to right voters
3 Ways To Target– Geographically – Voter History / ID – Constituencies
Calculating Goals • Break District Down geographically into regions• Find out each regions win number and vote goal.
Region #1Current Registration: 1624‘08 Turnout %: 31%‘12 Proj Turnout: 503Win Number: 253Vote Goal (52%): 262
Region #2Current Registration: 1603‘08 Turnout %: 55%‘12 Proj Turnout: 882Win Number: 442 Vote Goal (52%): 458
Region #3Current Registration: 1897‘08 Turnout %: 52%‘12 Proj Turnout: 966Win Number: 494Vote Goal (52%): 513
District Totals:Current Registration: 5124 ‘08 Turnout %: 46.3%‘12 Proj Turnout: 2371Win Number: 1187Vote Goal (52%): 1233
Party Performance Index
Percentage of vote our party can expect in typical election. (Based On History Not Reg)
How To Calculate PPI: Performance #1Performance#2 3 = PPI Performnce #3
Where Are Our People?
District Totals:‘12 Projected Turnout: 2371Party Performance Index: 46.1Proj Party Turnout: 1094Vote Goal (52%): 1233Voter Difference: -139
Region #3‘12 Projected Turnout: 966Party Performance Index: 48%Proj Party Turnout: 473Vote Goal (52%): 513Voter Difference: -39
Region #2‘12 Projected Turnout: 882Party Performance Index: 31%Proj Party Turnout: 273Vote Goal (52%): 458Voter Difference: -185
Region #1‘12 Projected Turnout: 503Party Performance Index: 69%Proj Party Turnout: 347 Vote Goal (52%): 262Voter Difference: 85
FIND PERSUADABLE VOTERSMethod 2: Compare campaigns w/ same constituents
Candidate % of Vote In districtDem Gov 57%Dem State Sen 46%
57%-46% = 11% Persuadable
Method 1:Look for blowouts to determine base vote
100%-Dem Base %-- GOP Base %____________Persuasion Index
CAN WE WIN? Region #1’12 Proj. Turnout: 503Persuasion Index: 18%Proj. Persuadable Voters: 91Persuasion Share: 23.6%
Region #2’12 Proj. Turnout: 882Persuasion Index: 12%Proj. Persuadable Voters: 106Persuasion Share: 27.6%
Region #3’12 Proj. Turnout: 966Persuasion Index: 19%Proj. Persuadable Voters: 187Persuasion Share: 48.8%
District Total: ’12 Proj. Turnout: 2371Persuasion Index: 16.2%Proj. Persuadable Voters: 384Persuasion Share: 100%
Formulas:Proj Persuadable Voter: Turnout Proj X Persuasion %
Persuasion Share: Regional Per. Voters/ Total
TARGETING STRATEGIES
Dem Base Precincts-PPI = >65%-ID, Voter Reg, Vol Recruitment GOTV
GOP Base Precincts-PPI=> less than 35% -Lowest priority
Swing Precincts-PPI> 65%-ID, Persuasion & GOTV
Targeting With Voter HistoryStrong Supporter (1)
Undecided (2,3,4)
Strong Opponent (5)
Always Vote (4x4) D A F
Sometimes Vote (2x4) (0x0)
B C F
Never Vote(0X4)
E E F
Voter Contact Priorities A- Undcideds likely to vote (ID, Persuasion)B. Supporters Less Likely To Vote (ID, GOTV)C. Undecideds less likely to vote (ID, Persuasion, GOTV)D. Supporters Likely to vote (Base Building)
Targeting Via Constituencies
• Look at Candidate and Message• Identify Supporters in Community• Listen!• Build Bases of Supports.
WHAT IS GOTV
• GETTING OUT THE VOTE• CULMINATION OF CAMPAIGNS CONVOS• TARGETED- ONLY GETTING OUT SUPPORTERS• NOT A LAST MINUTE DEAL– STARTS 2 WEEKS OUT– START PLANNING 4-5 WEEKS OUT
VOTER CONTACT METHODS
• DOORS• PHONES• LIT DROP• DIRECT MAIL
YOUR GOTV UNIVERSETARGETED UNIVERSE
SUPPORTER1s
OPPOSES 5s
GOTV UNIVERSE
PERSUASION
UNDECIDEDS2s 3s 4s
Calculating Volunteer ShiftsVote Goal: 11,496Early Vote: 2875 Remaining Voters: 8622
Capacity:25 GOTV phone contacts/hr8 GOTV door contacts/ hr3 hours per shift
We Need:345 vol phone hours (115 vol. shifts) OR 1078 vol door hours ( 360( vol. shifts) or 90 Phone Shifts (6750 voters) + 78 Canvass Shifts (1872)
E-Day
• Phones• Doors• Rides To The Polls• Poll Watching
Advice• It’s a marathon. Not a sprint. • Keep Calm and Under React. • Don’t break the law (Seems simple right?)• Don’t be afraid to change your plan• WRITE EVERYTHING DOWN.
“Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing
that ever has.”-Margaret Mead