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![Page 1: Fertility in Transition Family and Fertility Dynamics in East Germany after Unification Michaela Kreyenfeld.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070411/56649ccf5503460f9499ad35/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Fertility in Transition
Family and Fertility Dynamics in East Germany after Unification
Michaela Kreyenfeld
![Page 2: Fertility in Transition Family and Fertility Dynamics in East Germany after Unification Michaela Kreyenfeld.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070411/56649ccf5503460f9499ad35/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Politics and Media• Convergence of fertility behavior=
indicator of „social unification“?
Statistical Office• Harmonizing of the statistics?
Social Science• Natural experiement
• Study of behavior under radically new
constraints
Relevance of Research Question
0
1
2
3
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
East
West
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Structure of Talk
1. Constraints and fertility dynamics until 1990
2. Constraints and attitudes after 1990
3. Fertility dynamics after 1990
![Page 4: Fertility in Transition Family and Fertility Dynamics in East Germany after Unification Michaela Kreyenfeld.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070411/56649ccf5503460f9499ad35/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Constraints before 1990
Planned Economy• Constitutional „right to work”
• No unemployment
Integration of Women into Labor Market• Normative pressure to be employed
• High public day care coverage
Pro-Natalistic Policies (since 1972)• Policies and „moral appeals“ that encouraged early first birth
• Policies directed to higher order births
![Page 5: Fertility in Transition Family and Fertility Dynamics in East Germany after Unification Michaela Kreyenfeld.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070411/56649ccf5503460f9499ad35/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Fertility Dynamics before 1990
Total Fertility Rate
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
East Germany
West Germany
Pro-natalistic policies
![Page 6: Fertility in Transition Family and Fertility Dynamics in East Germany after Unification Michaela Kreyenfeld.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070411/56649ccf5503460f9499ad35/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Fertility Dynamics before 1990
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt
Percentage of Non-Marital Births
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
East Germany
West Germany
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Fertility Dynamics before 1990
Source: Micro-census 1998 (own calculations)
0%
50%
100%
15 20 25 30 35
Age of woman
Cohort 1964 (West)
Cohort 1964 (Ost)
Survival curve to first birth (percentage childless by age)
~ 25-30 %
~ 5-10 %
~ 5 years
![Page 8: Fertility in Transition Family and Fertility Dynamics in East Germany after Unification Michaela Kreyenfeld.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070411/56649ccf5503460f9499ad35/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Part 2
Constraints and Attitudes after 1990
![Page 9: Fertility in Transition Family and Fertility Dynamics in East Germany after Unification Michaela Kreyenfeld.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070411/56649ccf5503460f9499ad35/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Fall of Berlin Wall
Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
Mai
Jun
Jul
Au
g
Sep
Oct
No
v
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
Mai
Jun
Jul
Au
g
Sep
Oct
No
v
Dec
Jan
1989 1990 1991
Monetary Union
Legal UnificationTreuhand
• Fall of ‘Berlin Wall’ in November 1989
• Start of Privatization Process in March 1990
• Monetary Union in July 1990
• Political and Legal Unification in October 1990
Constraints and Attitudes after 1990
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Unemployment Rate
Source: Bundesagentur für Arbeit
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1990 1995 2000 2005
East Germany
West Germany
Constraints and Attitudes after 1990
![Page 11: Fertility in Transition Family and Fertility Dynamics in East Germany after Unification Michaela Kreyenfeld.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070411/56649ccf5503460f9499ad35/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
0 €
5 €
10 €
15 €
20 €
1990 1995 2000 2005
Constraints and Attitudes after 1990
Hourly Gross WageWages in the industry sector
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt
East Germany
West Germany
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Constraints and Attitudes after 1990
Worried about Job Security% of respondents who is very worried about job security
Source: SOEP (own estimations)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1990 1995 2000 2005
East Germany
West Germany
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Constraints and Attitudes after 1990
One needs a Family to Lead a Happy Life% of respondents who states that one needs a family to lead a happy life
Source: ALLBUS (own estimations)
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
1992 1996 2000 2004
West Germany
East Germany
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0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
1992 1996 2000 2004
Westdeutschland
Ostdeutschland
Quelle: Allbus (eigene Berechnungen)
Constraints and Attitudes after 1990
Child Suffers when Mother Works% of respondents who believe that child suffers when mother works
Source: ALLBUS (own estimations)
West Germany
East Germany
![Page 15: Fertility in Transition Family and Fertility Dynamics in East Germany after Unification Michaela Kreyenfeld.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070411/56649ccf5503460f9499ad35/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Constraints and Attitudes after 1990
Mother‘s Full-time Employment% of mothers*) who work full-time, [*)women aged 18-45 with children aged 1-15]
Quelle: Kreyenfeld/ Konietzka (2007)
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
1991 1996 2000 2004
West Germany
East Germany
West Germany
East Germany
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Constraints and Attitudes after 1990
Quelle: Statistisches Bundesamt
Provision of Public Day Care (Children under age 3)(Availability ratio for public day care places for children aged 0-3)
West Germany
East Germany
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Part 3
Family Dynamics after 1990
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Fertility Dynamics after 1990
Total Fertility Rate
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt
East Germany
West Germany
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
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0%
50%
100%
15 20 25 30 35
Age of Woman
Family Dynamics after 1990
Source: Micro-census (own estimations)
Cohort 1972 (East)
Cohort 1964 (East)
~ 5 years
Survival Curve to First Birth (percentage childless by age)
Cohort 1972 (West)
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Family Dynamics after 1990
Source: Kreyenfeld/ Konietzka (2007)
Childlessness at age 38 in East and West Germany
Cohort
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960
26%
14%
20%
1965
East Germany
West Germany
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Fertility Dynamics after 1990
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt
Percentage of Non-Marital Births
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
19%
34%
10%
East Germany
West Germany
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Fertility Dynamics after 1990
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt
Percentage of Non-Marital Births
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
19%
34%
59%
10%
23%
East Germany
West Germany
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Family Dynamics after 1990
Source: miicro-census (own estimations)
West Germany East Germany
No degree
VocationalUniversitydegree
14%
8%7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1976 1982 1989 1996 2000 2004
Nodegree
Vocationaldegree
Universitydegree
64%
39%
21%
26%
18%
7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1976 1982 1991 1996 2000 2004
Non-marital parenthood by women’s education (% of unmarried mothers*) by final education [women aged 15-45 with children below age 3)]
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Conclusions
Family Formation
• Dramatic increase in age at first birth compared to GDR-times
• However: East Germans are still younger at first birth than West Germans
Crisis of East or West German behavior?
Non-Marital Fertility
• Unexpected increase in non-marital fertilty in the East after 1990
Persisting East-West- Differences in family structure
No „adaptation“ to West German constraints?
![Page 25: Fertility in Transition Family and Fertility Dynamics in East Germany after Unification Michaela Kreyenfeld.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070411/56649ccf5503460f9499ad35/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
“The more liberal attitudes towards out-of-wedlock childbearing –already more accepted in the rest of Europe– could disrupt the more traditional West German pattern of family formation” (Heilig/Büttner/Lutz 1990)
Conclusions
15%
17%
22%
29%
30%
33%
36%
43%
45%
46%
51%
55%
58%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Italy
Poland
West Germany
Portugal
Russian Federation
Netherlands
Austria
United Kingdom
Denmark
France
Norway
Sweden
East Germany
Percentage of Non-Marital Births in 2004
Source: Council of Europe
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Max-Planck-Institut für demografische Forschung
www.demogr.mpg.de